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CNN Live Sunday
Iraq Elections Results In
Aired February 13, 2005 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: It's 11:00 a.m. in Atlanta and 7:00 p.m. in Baghdad where the votes have been counted and the results are in. Hello. I'm Christine Romans at CNN's global headquarters in for Fredricka Whitfield. Ahead this half hour, it's a Shiite sweep. We'll take you live to Baghdad to find out what the election results mean for Iraq and the United States. We'll also take you to Saddam Hussein's home town for reaction to the vote there.
And how is the Arab media covering this story? Well find out in a moment, but first a check of other headlines in the news now.
Pope John Paul II greeted a crowd gathered in St. Peter's Square today. It was the first public appearance of the 84-year-old pontiff since being released from the hospital where he was treated for a respiratory infection.
And these pictures out of Madrid where a massive fire engulfed an office building. That fire took place in the city's main financial center. Authorities say there is no indication the fire was an act of terrorism.
In Pakistan the death toll has risen to 424 from a series of weather-related catastrophes. Heavy rain and snow deluged the country last week, triggering several avalanches as well as a dam break in the southern part of the country.
Two weeks ago, Iraqis braved suicide bombings to cast their vote in historic elections. Today the product of their bravery is revealed as uncertified election results are announced. A Shiite party has dominated the vote. With details, CNN senior international correspondent Nic Robertson is live from Baghdad. Hi Nic.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The religious united Iraqi alliance party has come way with 48 percent of the vote. They're probably going to have about 130 seats in the 275-member national assembly. The party that's very likely to form an alliance with them, the Kurdish grouping of parties. They got about one-quarter of all the votes. They will get about one quarter of all of the seats. The party of the Prime Minister Ayad Allawi got about 14 percent of the votes. They will get about 38 or so of the seats in the new national assembly. But the dominance by this religious group does bring into sharp focus whether or not they're prepared to share power and their politicians today quick to say that they would.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MOWAFFAQ AL-RUBAIE, IRAQI NATL SECURITY ADVISER: This is going to be a government of national reconciliation, a government of national unity, a national coalition. All communities, all free communities, are going to take literally a very strong position in this government. And this is going to be a very homogeneous government, a government which will put the security file on the top.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTSON: Inside the convention center where some of these politicians were gathered. There were seen scenes of hugging and celebration. Some of the smaller, more independent parties and groupings have been complaining, saying that because they didn't get the 31,000 votes necessary to get a seat, that they're not going to be included, not going to be heard and won't get a seat at the table, if you will. But really, a feeling of celebration, a feeling that the job has been completed. The election's pulled off, the results now clear, and that the process can continue Christine.
ROMANS: Nic, from Monday to Saturday, at least 108 people were killed by gunmen or bombings. What's the mood about the insurgency, the mood about the violence in the country as we continue forward with the results, uncertified results of this election?
ROBERTSON: Very interesting. One of the politicians here, Barham Saleh, a Kurdish politician, was asked very much that question. He said, look, we really need the U.S. troops here in Iraq in the near future as far as we can see because we need them to help us with the security issues. He said, there's no need for them to be pulled out. There's no need to set a deadline for them to pull out.
And that does seem to be the pervasive view among many of the politicians I've talked to recently, that they recognize that they don't know how the security is going to be in the near future. And therefore, they need U.S. troops in the country to deal with the insurgency. They do want to see the Iraqi forces built up so that they can begin to limit the number of attacks that we've seen over the last week, attacks that have been attempts to divide the community here, to divide the Shia, the Sunni community, attempts at putting people off, if you will, from joining the Iraqi police force and Iraqi security services so the politicians seem to be fairly united on that view at the moment. U.S. troops necessary in the country for the foreseeable future, no need for a timetable, time frame, for a pullout. Christine.
ROMANS: All right. Nic Robertson in Baghdad. Thank you Nic.
Now let's head further north now in Iraq to the heart of the Sunni triangle. CNN's Jane Arraf is in Tikrit, hometown of deposed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. She joins us now by video phone. Hi there, Jane.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Christine. The news is still trickling out here to people. But certainly the major, the big picture has gotten across that the Shias have won. It's not as big as they had been expected to. They have won quite a substantial proportion. The Kurds made a good showing as well. And what's missing from that list is the Sunnis. They didn't come out in huge numbers here, Christine. They're not going to be well-represented in that constitutional assembly. But there are efforts underway to win them back into the fold. It remains to be seen whether those will be successful or how it's going to be done and that's part of the discussions and negotiations going on right now. Christine.
ROMANS: The negotiations I'm sure the horse trading now begins and the real politics of this gets underway as people try to figure out the power sharing and really build a coalition here. What are you hearing on that front?
ARRAF: It has been a priority, because I think everyone realizes that if they don't bring Sunnis in, then it could widen the rift and it could be one of the most dangerous things, more dangerous even than what's happening now in this country. Now there have been some major Sunni groups that have said they won't participate no matter what. The hope is that they will change their minds, that there will be a way to get them to bring them back into the process. Some people here are talking about reviving the Baath party, for instance. Now, it's not a way to bring them into the process to help write the constitution, but it's an acknowledgement that perhaps drastic measures have to be taken to address this issue of all of these disenfranchised Iraqis who happen to be Sunnis.
ROMANS: That's a very interesting point, especially where you are in Tikrit, hometown of Saddam Hussein. There were no Baath party candidates this time around. How feasible is that to revive the Baath party at this point?
ARRAF: There are even some U.S. officials who are talking about putting the Baath party on the election list for next year. They are trying to overcome some impediments. And as we travel around here and we've been traveling quite a bit, it's really clear what impact that dissolving the Baath party, dissolving the Army very early on had. It has created a class of Iraqis, of former people, of people with former influence, who feel they don't have a stake in the country and that feeling that the Baath party or something like it should be brought back is a way to try to address that before it becomes even more volatile.
ROMANS: All right. Jane Arraf in Tikrit, thank you so much Jane.
The Bush administration played a big role in creating Iraq's new political landscape. Let's bring in CNN's White House correspondent Dana Bash. Good morning Dana.
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Christine. And the White House, of course, did play a very big role, to say the least, but at this point we don't have any reaction for a few reasons. One is these results that we're hearing about this morning takes 72 hours, three days to actually be certified. So the White House is at this point keeping its powder dry first of all until they can figure out if they are exactly going to end up being the way we see them now. They can be challenged over the next three days. But also, on a sort of more political PR level if you will, they are waiting to hear from the Iraqis themselves before the Americans speak, before you hear from statements from the White House. That is something that the White House has sort of been their MO all along to make sure that this is seen as an Iraqi process and that the White House is giving a second reaction.
But by and large, what we're hearing from the U.S. side, from lawmakers this morning on the Sunday talk shows, is that they certainly are little bit surprised, perhaps, to see that the Shia majority did get the most votes, but not as big of a majority as perhaps they had originally thought and several lawmakers said that they understand that the horse trading is now going to begin and perhaps because the Shiite Muslims will have to be forced to have a coalition with other groups, that perhaps that could help to get the kind of unity, to get the kind of negotiation that they were hoping would happen and really they believe here in the United States in the administration on Capitol Hill that that needs to happen in order to make this election legitimate, particularly for the Sunnis. Christine?
ROMANS: Dana Bash in Washington, thank you Dana.
Of course, this is really just the beginning of what's going to be a pretty long process. All the votes now counted in Iraq. Here's what happens next. Election results will be certified in three days if voting or counting complaints are not upheld. A 275-member national assembly will be formed based on the share of the vote each candidate gets. The national assembly will pick a president and two deputies. Those three people will then choose a prime minister and cabinet.
The prime minister and the cabinet will ask the national assembly for a vote of confidence. The national assembly will draft a constitution by August 15th and the Iraqi people will vote on that constitution by October 15th. If they approve it, a general election will be held by December 15th and the new government will take office by the end of the year. We'll continue our coverage on the Iraqi election results with a different view, the Arab media. The Shiites got the most votes, but who's the real winner?
Also ahead, spies in Iran. A decades-old secret comes to light. You're watching CNN LIVE SUNDAY.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROMANS: A new political power emerges from today's Iraqi election results. The Kurds, who were persecuted under Saddam Hussein's rule, received the second most votes of any Iraqi party. The Arab media is focusing on this. CNN's senior editor for Arab affairs Octavia Nasr joins us with more.
OCTAVIA NASR: That's the focus. It's been the focus since yesterday. The morning papers, Arab papers are headlining the fact that Kurds are going to win big and the fact that a Kurd is going to be nominated for the presidential seat and that the interim Prime Minister Allawi is all for it, which is really big news for the Arab world and the Arab media are playing it pretty high. Take a look at those headlines from the morning papers. Here you see that Allawi supports Kurds to take any position in government. This is from a (INAUDIBLE) newspaper. It's a London-based Pan-Arab newspaper. (INAUDIBLE) same thing.
So it was interesting that the Arab media picked up on this Kurdish element way before everybody else did. And to them, when there was no surprise, this is (INAUDIBLE) from Lebanon, but a very influential newspaper also saying the same thing basically. But it's very interesting how they picked up on it so early and they're saying the surprise is not really the Shia win, the surprise is the Kurd.
ROMANS: What is the reaction? Is it sort of a mixed reaction that the Kurds will have more of a voice than they've had in ages in this region?
NASR: It's a bit of a shock if you will, because the Kurds winning that big shows how unified they were and how well their strategy worked instead of dividing up and having several parties, they came together and asked people to vote for them as a group. If Iraq gets a Kurdish president, that's going to be very interesting to watch. We're going to watch how Iran is going to react to this, how Turkey is going to react to this. Both countries with a good population of Kurds that might one day, want to do the same.
ROMANS: Let's talk about the Sunni vote boycott and the low voter turnout among the Sunnis. What is the Arab media making of this and are they saying that the Kurds and the Shia got so much more support simply because the Sunnis were not at the table?
NASR: Yes. That is being discussed. That's being talked about. Some people are calling it -- calling the elections undemocratic because the Sunnis did not vote and the Sunni politicians boycotted the elections altogether. The interesting thing here is that people are saying, well, look this is democracy. The Sunnis could have ran for elections. They didn't need to boycott. The Sunnis could have voted in the elections. Yes there was violence but they could have braved the violence and gone to the polls and voted. So some people are not buying this, you know, idea of the Sunnis are not involved as if it's somebody else's fault. They're saying it's their fault that they didn't participate.
ROMANS: Does it look as the Shia and the Kurds and the other parties in the country are going to sort of embrace the Sunnis at this point to try to help get everybody at the table for writing the constitution?
NASR: That's what they're saying, very interesting to watch Arab media these days, really interesting because you have all these different ideas, different views, different ideologies coming together and you have a Shia group that is saying, look we're going to be inclusive. This is not going to be an Islamic republic of Iraq. Islam is going to play a major role in Iraq because obviously they won and they won big. But they're saying we're going to be inclusive. We're going to bring everybody together. Now what the few days, the coming up days are going to bring, are going to be very, very interesting because that's going to determine whether the Shia mean what they say and whether the Sunnis are willing to play the game and reintegrate themselves sort of in this political arena.
ROMANS: All right. Octavia Nasr, thank you so much for watching it for us, fascinating.
Much more on the Iraq vote coming up today on CNN. Iraq's national security adviser joins Wolf Blitzer to look at what's next for Iraq. That's only on CNN's LATE EDITION beginning at noon eastern.
Iran today rejected a European demand to abandon construction of its heavy water reactor which could be used to enrich uranium for a nuclear bomb for a light water reactor. The Bush administration has increasingly taken a hard line approach with Iran. But as our Suzanne Malveaux reports, many are worried that the intelligence failures in Iraq may be repeated in Iran for the same reasons.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Dozens of Iranians who were passing information to the CIA were jailed or executed in the early 1990s, after their spy network set up at the request of the Pentagon, was discovered by Iranian counterintelligence. That, according to two knowledgeable former U.S. officials, who tell CNN the incident was not a particularly pretty story. Part of that story was recently revealed by former Pentagon official and longtime critic of the CIA, Richard Perle who testified before Congress.
RICHARD PERLE, FMR PENTAGON OFFICIAL: And I imagine there are many on the committee who are familiar with the terrible setback that we suffered in Iran a few years ago when in a display of unbelievably careless management, we put pressure on agents operating in Iran to report with greater frequency and didn't provide improved communications channels for them to do it. The Iranian intelligence authorities quickly saw the surge in traffic and, as I understand it, virtually our entire network in Iran was wiped out.
MALVEAUX: The two former U.S. officials who spoke with CNN call Perle's version of the story exaggerated, inaccurate in key details and timed to mislead. They discredit Perle as one who has had a beef against the CIA. Perle told CNN in a telephone conversation, while he didn't know when the incident happened or the details, his point remains the same.
PERLE: I think we're in very bad shape in Iran.
MALVEAUX: And the shape of U.S. intelligence gathering in Iran has quickly become a battle over credibility.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Today, Iran remains the world's primary state sponsor of terror, pursuing nuclear weapons while depriving its people of the freedom they seek and deserve.
MALVEAUX: Bush's statement alarmed some overseas and at home who recalled the faulty U.S. intelligence claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. and central justification for going to war. While the U.S. insists it is not pursuing military action with Iran, some analysts are concerned about the administration's ability to assess Iran's threat.
DAVID KAY, FMR. CHIEF WEAPONS INSP: My suspicion is that we're going to find out in Iran just like in Iraq, we had no human operatives on the ground and that our best source of information were people who had defected and had other agendas.
MALVEAUX: But U.S. officials say that's not fair. Despite the execution of Iranian agents back in the '90s, there have been many recent successes. They say it was U.S. intelligence that identified Iran's nuclear weapon sites to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Suzanne Malveaux, CNN, the White House.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROMANS: It is the winter of their very wet discontent out west. Heavy rains turned streets into roaring rivers in one area normally considered a desert. Is more rain on the way? Orelon Sydney has the forecast when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROMANS: RELIABLE SOURCES is coming up at the bottom of the hour. Howard Kurtz is in Washington with a preview. Hi, Howard.
HOWARD KURTZ, CNN ANCHOR, RELIABLE SOURCES: Hi, Christine. Thanks very much. Coming up, a top CNN executive steps down over his comments about the U.S. military's role in the deaths of journalists in Iraq. A conservative web writer quits his post after asking the president a politically loaded and inaccurate question. What role did bloggers play in both of these resignations? And with all these partisans on the web and on the air, just who is a journalist anyway? Plus Watergate's deep throat, is the press still searching for answers three decades later? All ahead on RELIABLE SOURCES.
ROMANS: All right. Thank you Howard, looking forward to it. Now a look at some stories making news across America. Police in Washington State call it a strange case of an online suicide pact. Gerald Krein goes before a grand jury tomorrow, accused of soliciting people in a chat room to kill themselves on Valentine's Day. Authorities say Krein's plan involved sexual overtones among computer users in the U.S and Canada, most of them women.
The highway patrol blames fog, speeding and following too closely for causing a multi-car pileup in Davis County Utah. Two people were listed in critical condition. The crash shut down interstate 15 for 5 1/2 hours. Two tractor-trailers and 11 other vehicles were involved.
An Arizona storm is finally letting up after forcing dozens of people from their homes because of serious flooding. Near Phoenix, a trailer home was swept away and a car was swallowed by the fast moving floodwaters. Residents are trying to recover after at least 16 homes were damaged.
And now for more on the wet weather in the west and all the weather across the nation, Orelon Sydney. Hi Orelon. ORELON SYDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Christine, how you doing? A much better day for folk folks out west because the big storm system that caused all the trouble is now here. The area of low pressure in southern Iowa, the cold front extends down on into the Gulf of Mexico. The rain then is going to be across the plains states and the Gulf coast. Here are some of the 84 hour rain totals however. This is from Thursday and when you rack up this much in the desert areas, you really can get a lot of problems with flooding. White Tail, Arizona at 4.22 inches, Green Mountain at 2.70, even Tucson picked up an inch over that 84-hour period. So not as much trouble there, but that is quite a lot of rainfall.
We can see more rain today but it's all going to be well to the east. We're looking at maybe an inch, an inch and a half across parts of the Gulf coast states and then a second area of potentially an inch or so, southern parts of Illinois and Indiana back on into Missouri. Right now it's raining all the way from Minneapolis through Chicago southward down to Houston. No severe weather reported yet, but that could change this afternoon, because again we're getting that warm, moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico with relatively cooler air behind it.
Put that together and it's going to set off a few thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly looking at large hail and gusty winds. Can't rule out an isolated tornado but I think those chances are extremely slim. Otherwise, the southwest today, sunny skies, mild temperatures. There is a little weak boundary across the Pacific northwest. That's going to keep you and a chance of rain and snow, of course, in the mountains. That will be around through tomorrow. And our storm system in the east heads into the great lakes with more thunderstorms covering the eastern United States right up through the Blue Ridge, might manage to see a little bit of snow too tomorrow in New England. Christine.
ROMANS: All right. Orelon Sydney, thank you very much Orelon.
SYDNEY: You're welcome.
ROMANS: And that's it for CNN LIVE SUNDAY. Up next, RELIABLE SOURCES takes a closer look at the power of online blogs after two high profile media resignations.
Then on LATE EDITION, Wolf Blitzer will have much more on Iraq's election results and at 2:00 Eastern, PEOPLE IN THE NEWS profiles L.L. Cool Jay and Shania Twain and we'll have a check of the headlines right now in the news right after this break.
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Aired February 13, 2005 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: It's 11:00 a.m. in Atlanta and 7:00 p.m. in Baghdad where the votes have been counted and the results are in. Hello. I'm Christine Romans at CNN's global headquarters in for Fredricka Whitfield. Ahead this half hour, it's a Shiite sweep. We'll take you live to Baghdad to find out what the election results mean for Iraq and the United States. We'll also take you to Saddam Hussein's home town for reaction to the vote there.
And how is the Arab media covering this story? Well find out in a moment, but first a check of other headlines in the news now.
Pope John Paul II greeted a crowd gathered in St. Peter's Square today. It was the first public appearance of the 84-year-old pontiff since being released from the hospital where he was treated for a respiratory infection.
And these pictures out of Madrid where a massive fire engulfed an office building. That fire took place in the city's main financial center. Authorities say there is no indication the fire was an act of terrorism.
In Pakistan the death toll has risen to 424 from a series of weather-related catastrophes. Heavy rain and snow deluged the country last week, triggering several avalanches as well as a dam break in the southern part of the country.
Two weeks ago, Iraqis braved suicide bombings to cast their vote in historic elections. Today the product of their bravery is revealed as uncertified election results are announced. A Shiite party has dominated the vote. With details, CNN senior international correspondent Nic Robertson is live from Baghdad. Hi Nic.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The religious united Iraqi alliance party has come way with 48 percent of the vote. They're probably going to have about 130 seats in the 275-member national assembly. The party that's very likely to form an alliance with them, the Kurdish grouping of parties. They got about one-quarter of all the votes. They will get about one quarter of all of the seats. The party of the Prime Minister Ayad Allawi got about 14 percent of the votes. They will get about 38 or so of the seats in the new national assembly. But the dominance by this religious group does bring into sharp focus whether or not they're prepared to share power and their politicians today quick to say that they would.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MOWAFFAQ AL-RUBAIE, IRAQI NATL SECURITY ADVISER: This is going to be a government of national reconciliation, a government of national unity, a national coalition. All communities, all free communities, are going to take literally a very strong position in this government. And this is going to be a very homogeneous government, a government which will put the security file on the top.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTSON: Inside the convention center where some of these politicians were gathered. There were seen scenes of hugging and celebration. Some of the smaller, more independent parties and groupings have been complaining, saying that because they didn't get the 31,000 votes necessary to get a seat, that they're not going to be included, not going to be heard and won't get a seat at the table, if you will. But really, a feeling of celebration, a feeling that the job has been completed. The election's pulled off, the results now clear, and that the process can continue Christine.
ROMANS: Nic, from Monday to Saturday, at least 108 people were killed by gunmen or bombings. What's the mood about the insurgency, the mood about the violence in the country as we continue forward with the results, uncertified results of this election?
ROBERTSON: Very interesting. One of the politicians here, Barham Saleh, a Kurdish politician, was asked very much that question. He said, look, we really need the U.S. troops here in Iraq in the near future as far as we can see because we need them to help us with the security issues. He said, there's no need for them to be pulled out. There's no need to set a deadline for them to pull out.
And that does seem to be the pervasive view among many of the politicians I've talked to recently, that they recognize that they don't know how the security is going to be in the near future. And therefore, they need U.S. troops in the country to deal with the insurgency. They do want to see the Iraqi forces built up so that they can begin to limit the number of attacks that we've seen over the last week, attacks that have been attempts to divide the community here, to divide the Shia, the Sunni community, attempts at putting people off, if you will, from joining the Iraqi police force and Iraqi security services so the politicians seem to be fairly united on that view at the moment. U.S. troops necessary in the country for the foreseeable future, no need for a timetable, time frame, for a pullout. Christine.
ROMANS: All right. Nic Robertson in Baghdad. Thank you Nic.
Now let's head further north now in Iraq to the heart of the Sunni triangle. CNN's Jane Arraf is in Tikrit, hometown of deposed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. She joins us now by video phone. Hi there, Jane.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Christine. The news is still trickling out here to people. But certainly the major, the big picture has gotten across that the Shias have won. It's not as big as they had been expected to. They have won quite a substantial proportion. The Kurds made a good showing as well. And what's missing from that list is the Sunnis. They didn't come out in huge numbers here, Christine. They're not going to be well-represented in that constitutional assembly. But there are efforts underway to win them back into the fold. It remains to be seen whether those will be successful or how it's going to be done and that's part of the discussions and negotiations going on right now. Christine.
ROMANS: The negotiations I'm sure the horse trading now begins and the real politics of this gets underway as people try to figure out the power sharing and really build a coalition here. What are you hearing on that front?
ARRAF: It has been a priority, because I think everyone realizes that if they don't bring Sunnis in, then it could widen the rift and it could be one of the most dangerous things, more dangerous even than what's happening now in this country. Now there have been some major Sunni groups that have said they won't participate no matter what. The hope is that they will change their minds, that there will be a way to get them to bring them back into the process. Some people here are talking about reviving the Baath party, for instance. Now, it's not a way to bring them into the process to help write the constitution, but it's an acknowledgement that perhaps drastic measures have to be taken to address this issue of all of these disenfranchised Iraqis who happen to be Sunnis.
ROMANS: That's a very interesting point, especially where you are in Tikrit, hometown of Saddam Hussein. There were no Baath party candidates this time around. How feasible is that to revive the Baath party at this point?
ARRAF: There are even some U.S. officials who are talking about putting the Baath party on the election list for next year. They are trying to overcome some impediments. And as we travel around here and we've been traveling quite a bit, it's really clear what impact that dissolving the Baath party, dissolving the Army very early on had. It has created a class of Iraqis, of former people, of people with former influence, who feel they don't have a stake in the country and that feeling that the Baath party or something like it should be brought back is a way to try to address that before it becomes even more volatile.
ROMANS: All right. Jane Arraf in Tikrit, thank you so much Jane.
The Bush administration played a big role in creating Iraq's new political landscape. Let's bring in CNN's White House correspondent Dana Bash. Good morning Dana.
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Christine. And the White House, of course, did play a very big role, to say the least, but at this point we don't have any reaction for a few reasons. One is these results that we're hearing about this morning takes 72 hours, three days to actually be certified. So the White House is at this point keeping its powder dry first of all until they can figure out if they are exactly going to end up being the way we see them now. They can be challenged over the next three days. But also, on a sort of more political PR level if you will, they are waiting to hear from the Iraqis themselves before the Americans speak, before you hear from statements from the White House. That is something that the White House has sort of been their MO all along to make sure that this is seen as an Iraqi process and that the White House is giving a second reaction.
But by and large, what we're hearing from the U.S. side, from lawmakers this morning on the Sunday talk shows, is that they certainly are little bit surprised, perhaps, to see that the Shia majority did get the most votes, but not as big of a majority as perhaps they had originally thought and several lawmakers said that they understand that the horse trading is now going to begin and perhaps because the Shiite Muslims will have to be forced to have a coalition with other groups, that perhaps that could help to get the kind of unity, to get the kind of negotiation that they were hoping would happen and really they believe here in the United States in the administration on Capitol Hill that that needs to happen in order to make this election legitimate, particularly for the Sunnis. Christine?
ROMANS: Dana Bash in Washington, thank you Dana.
Of course, this is really just the beginning of what's going to be a pretty long process. All the votes now counted in Iraq. Here's what happens next. Election results will be certified in three days if voting or counting complaints are not upheld. A 275-member national assembly will be formed based on the share of the vote each candidate gets. The national assembly will pick a president and two deputies. Those three people will then choose a prime minister and cabinet.
The prime minister and the cabinet will ask the national assembly for a vote of confidence. The national assembly will draft a constitution by August 15th and the Iraqi people will vote on that constitution by October 15th. If they approve it, a general election will be held by December 15th and the new government will take office by the end of the year. We'll continue our coverage on the Iraqi election results with a different view, the Arab media. The Shiites got the most votes, but who's the real winner?
Also ahead, spies in Iran. A decades-old secret comes to light. You're watching CNN LIVE SUNDAY.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROMANS: A new political power emerges from today's Iraqi election results. The Kurds, who were persecuted under Saddam Hussein's rule, received the second most votes of any Iraqi party. The Arab media is focusing on this. CNN's senior editor for Arab affairs Octavia Nasr joins us with more.
OCTAVIA NASR: That's the focus. It's been the focus since yesterday. The morning papers, Arab papers are headlining the fact that Kurds are going to win big and the fact that a Kurd is going to be nominated for the presidential seat and that the interim Prime Minister Allawi is all for it, which is really big news for the Arab world and the Arab media are playing it pretty high. Take a look at those headlines from the morning papers. Here you see that Allawi supports Kurds to take any position in government. This is from a (INAUDIBLE) newspaper. It's a London-based Pan-Arab newspaper. (INAUDIBLE) same thing.
So it was interesting that the Arab media picked up on this Kurdish element way before everybody else did. And to them, when there was no surprise, this is (INAUDIBLE) from Lebanon, but a very influential newspaper also saying the same thing basically. But it's very interesting how they picked up on it so early and they're saying the surprise is not really the Shia win, the surprise is the Kurd.
ROMANS: What is the reaction? Is it sort of a mixed reaction that the Kurds will have more of a voice than they've had in ages in this region?
NASR: It's a bit of a shock if you will, because the Kurds winning that big shows how unified they were and how well their strategy worked instead of dividing up and having several parties, they came together and asked people to vote for them as a group. If Iraq gets a Kurdish president, that's going to be very interesting to watch. We're going to watch how Iran is going to react to this, how Turkey is going to react to this. Both countries with a good population of Kurds that might one day, want to do the same.
ROMANS: Let's talk about the Sunni vote boycott and the low voter turnout among the Sunnis. What is the Arab media making of this and are they saying that the Kurds and the Shia got so much more support simply because the Sunnis were not at the table?
NASR: Yes. That is being discussed. That's being talked about. Some people are calling it -- calling the elections undemocratic because the Sunnis did not vote and the Sunni politicians boycotted the elections altogether. The interesting thing here is that people are saying, well, look this is democracy. The Sunnis could have ran for elections. They didn't need to boycott. The Sunnis could have voted in the elections. Yes there was violence but they could have braved the violence and gone to the polls and voted. So some people are not buying this, you know, idea of the Sunnis are not involved as if it's somebody else's fault. They're saying it's their fault that they didn't participate.
ROMANS: Does it look as the Shia and the Kurds and the other parties in the country are going to sort of embrace the Sunnis at this point to try to help get everybody at the table for writing the constitution?
NASR: That's what they're saying, very interesting to watch Arab media these days, really interesting because you have all these different ideas, different views, different ideologies coming together and you have a Shia group that is saying, look we're going to be inclusive. This is not going to be an Islamic republic of Iraq. Islam is going to play a major role in Iraq because obviously they won and they won big. But they're saying we're going to be inclusive. We're going to bring everybody together. Now what the few days, the coming up days are going to bring, are going to be very, very interesting because that's going to determine whether the Shia mean what they say and whether the Sunnis are willing to play the game and reintegrate themselves sort of in this political arena.
ROMANS: All right. Octavia Nasr, thank you so much for watching it for us, fascinating.
Much more on the Iraq vote coming up today on CNN. Iraq's national security adviser joins Wolf Blitzer to look at what's next for Iraq. That's only on CNN's LATE EDITION beginning at noon eastern.
Iran today rejected a European demand to abandon construction of its heavy water reactor which could be used to enrich uranium for a nuclear bomb for a light water reactor. The Bush administration has increasingly taken a hard line approach with Iran. But as our Suzanne Malveaux reports, many are worried that the intelligence failures in Iraq may be repeated in Iran for the same reasons.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Dozens of Iranians who were passing information to the CIA were jailed or executed in the early 1990s, after their spy network set up at the request of the Pentagon, was discovered by Iranian counterintelligence. That, according to two knowledgeable former U.S. officials, who tell CNN the incident was not a particularly pretty story. Part of that story was recently revealed by former Pentagon official and longtime critic of the CIA, Richard Perle who testified before Congress.
RICHARD PERLE, FMR PENTAGON OFFICIAL: And I imagine there are many on the committee who are familiar with the terrible setback that we suffered in Iran a few years ago when in a display of unbelievably careless management, we put pressure on agents operating in Iran to report with greater frequency and didn't provide improved communications channels for them to do it. The Iranian intelligence authorities quickly saw the surge in traffic and, as I understand it, virtually our entire network in Iran was wiped out.
MALVEAUX: The two former U.S. officials who spoke with CNN call Perle's version of the story exaggerated, inaccurate in key details and timed to mislead. They discredit Perle as one who has had a beef against the CIA. Perle told CNN in a telephone conversation, while he didn't know when the incident happened or the details, his point remains the same.
PERLE: I think we're in very bad shape in Iran.
MALVEAUX: And the shape of U.S. intelligence gathering in Iran has quickly become a battle over credibility.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Today, Iran remains the world's primary state sponsor of terror, pursuing nuclear weapons while depriving its people of the freedom they seek and deserve.
MALVEAUX: Bush's statement alarmed some overseas and at home who recalled the faulty U.S. intelligence claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. and central justification for going to war. While the U.S. insists it is not pursuing military action with Iran, some analysts are concerned about the administration's ability to assess Iran's threat.
DAVID KAY, FMR. CHIEF WEAPONS INSP: My suspicion is that we're going to find out in Iran just like in Iraq, we had no human operatives on the ground and that our best source of information were people who had defected and had other agendas.
MALVEAUX: But U.S. officials say that's not fair. Despite the execution of Iranian agents back in the '90s, there have been many recent successes. They say it was U.S. intelligence that identified Iran's nuclear weapon sites to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Suzanne Malveaux, CNN, the White House.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROMANS: It is the winter of their very wet discontent out west. Heavy rains turned streets into roaring rivers in one area normally considered a desert. Is more rain on the way? Orelon Sydney has the forecast when we come back.
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ROMANS: RELIABLE SOURCES is coming up at the bottom of the hour. Howard Kurtz is in Washington with a preview. Hi, Howard.
HOWARD KURTZ, CNN ANCHOR, RELIABLE SOURCES: Hi, Christine. Thanks very much. Coming up, a top CNN executive steps down over his comments about the U.S. military's role in the deaths of journalists in Iraq. A conservative web writer quits his post after asking the president a politically loaded and inaccurate question. What role did bloggers play in both of these resignations? And with all these partisans on the web and on the air, just who is a journalist anyway? Plus Watergate's deep throat, is the press still searching for answers three decades later? All ahead on RELIABLE SOURCES.
ROMANS: All right. Thank you Howard, looking forward to it. Now a look at some stories making news across America. Police in Washington State call it a strange case of an online suicide pact. Gerald Krein goes before a grand jury tomorrow, accused of soliciting people in a chat room to kill themselves on Valentine's Day. Authorities say Krein's plan involved sexual overtones among computer users in the U.S and Canada, most of them women.
The highway patrol blames fog, speeding and following too closely for causing a multi-car pileup in Davis County Utah. Two people were listed in critical condition. The crash shut down interstate 15 for 5 1/2 hours. Two tractor-trailers and 11 other vehicles were involved.
An Arizona storm is finally letting up after forcing dozens of people from their homes because of serious flooding. Near Phoenix, a trailer home was swept away and a car was swallowed by the fast moving floodwaters. Residents are trying to recover after at least 16 homes were damaged.
And now for more on the wet weather in the west and all the weather across the nation, Orelon Sydney. Hi Orelon. ORELON SYDNEY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Christine, how you doing? A much better day for folk folks out west because the big storm system that caused all the trouble is now here. The area of low pressure in southern Iowa, the cold front extends down on into the Gulf of Mexico. The rain then is going to be across the plains states and the Gulf coast. Here are some of the 84 hour rain totals however. This is from Thursday and when you rack up this much in the desert areas, you really can get a lot of problems with flooding. White Tail, Arizona at 4.22 inches, Green Mountain at 2.70, even Tucson picked up an inch over that 84-hour period. So not as much trouble there, but that is quite a lot of rainfall.
We can see more rain today but it's all going to be well to the east. We're looking at maybe an inch, an inch and a half across parts of the Gulf coast states and then a second area of potentially an inch or so, southern parts of Illinois and Indiana back on into Missouri. Right now it's raining all the way from Minneapolis through Chicago southward down to Houston. No severe weather reported yet, but that could change this afternoon, because again we're getting that warm, moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico with relatively cooler air behind it.
Put that together and it's going to set off a few thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly looking at large hail and gusty winds. Can't rule out an isolated tornado but I think those chances are extremely slim. Otherwise, the southwest today, sunny skies, mild temperatures. There is a little weak boundary across the Pacific northwest. That's going to keep you and a chance of rain and snow, of course, in the mountains. That will be around through tomorrow. And our storm system in the east heads into the great lakes with more thunderstorms covering the eastern United States right up through the Blue Ridge, might manage to see a little bit of snow too tomorrow in New England. Christine.
ROMANS: All right. Orelon Sydney, thank you very much Orelon.
SYDNEY: You're welcome.
ROMANS: And that's it for CNN LIVE SUNDAY. Up next, RELIABLE SOURCES takes a closer look at the power of online blogs after two high profile media resignations.
Then on LATE EDITION, Wolf Blitzer will have much more on Iraq's election results and at 2:00 Eastern, PEOPLE IN THE NEWS profiles L.L. Cool Jay and Shania Twain and we'll have a check of the headlines right now in the news right after this break.
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