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Zarqawi Reported Injured; 'Kamber and May'

Aired May 25, 2005 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: We could soon find out if the so- called runaway bride will face any charges. I know you remember Jennifer Wilbanks. She disappeared days before her wedding, sparking that massive search. She later turns up in New Mexico, claiming she'd been kidnapped and then later she admitted, oh, I wasn't kidnapped. Well, the district attorney in Gwinnett County, Georgia, is expected to hold a news conference less than three hours from now. We will learn more then. And of course, CNN will most likely cover that live, if that's possible.
And a set of identical quadruplets making their first public appearance. Take a look. Daphne, Chloe, Bonnie and Adele were conceived without fertility drugs or invitro fertilization. Fewer than 50 such sets have ever been recorded in the world. The babies were born two months ago. Well, they are cute, aren't they? Two may go home this week. The mom says she'll use homemade ankle bracelets to keep track of her new daughters, because they look exactly alike. That would be tough.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: It's really hard to tell -- I couldn't tell my sons apart, except that one finally got hair and one didn't.

COSTELLO: But don't you wonder if you were calling name by the other's name and you'd never know it.

O'BRIEN: They're too young to know. You can just switch in the middle. See, they'd never know, Carol. I got a lot of tips like that. Thanks, Carol.

Well, the U.S. military not sure what to make of a message that's been posted on Islamic Web sites, supposedly from al Qaeda in Iraq. The sites say this: "Pray for the healing of our sheik Abu Musab al Zarqawi from an injury that he suffered in the path of God." How important is this? What does it really mean?

Our senior editor of Arab affairs is Octavia Nasr. She's live in Atlanta for us this morning. Octavia, nice to see you. Good morning to you. First and foremost, any sense that this is real?

OCTAVIA NASR, CNN SR. EDITOR OF ARAB AFFAIRS: There is a sense that this could be real, because of the source and because of the language. You know, we monitor these Web sites all the time, so we have a sense to what sounds like al Qaeda and Iraq and what doesn't sound like it. It does sound like al Qaeda and Iraq.

The person, Abu Maysara al Iraqi, who is supposedly the source on this, is someone who has posted claims of responsibility before. He has posted messages from al Qaeda and Iraq. So there is a sense that it could be true. Can we authenticate it? Can we say for sure it is from al Qaeda and Iraq? No way we can do that, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: The U.S. is saying the same thing. U.S. military, U.S. Lieutenant Colonel Steve Boylan says this: "We don't know if the report is fact or fiction or even what of his health is." If you assume that the goal here is to energize the insurgency, what exactly is the point about bragging that the leader is injured?

NASR: They're not bragging about him being injured. As a matter of fact, if you read the language, they are saying that this is heroic, this would be a heroic wound. But in no way are they bragging. And this is a first for al Qaeda and Iraq or any insurgency group for that matter. They usually announce deaths, because they're celebration. They're celebration into martyrdom.

They never before announced that someone was seriously wounded, they never before asked for the -- what they call the brothers to pray for the leader. So this is a first, and in a way, it leads us to believe that maybe, maybe if he is, indeed, injured, maybe the injury is serious, and it will lead to death. That is, if he's not dead already, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: And in fact, Octavia, let's run through some of the scenarios that you think could exist here. There's four of them. I'll tick them off and then you just fill me in on what you what you think. First, it could be a distraction, sort of make the U.S. believe this is the case, distract them from the ultimate goal. Is that right?

NASR: Right. It could be a distraction, because obviously, the offensives are intensifying. And this group in particular is very high interest. So maybe they're feeling the pressure, they need to move around so they throw this out there to distract and confuse the U.S. and Iraqi forces in order to give themselves a chance to move him around or move around or regroup. So that's a possibility.

O'BRIEN: Which is kind of your second scenario, too. Could just be a ploy, sort of confuse the U.S. military. Or he could really be dead or injured. Is that the theory you give most credence to here?

NASR: Yes. And to go back to the ploy idea, there is a sense, also, when you read all these Web sites, there is a sense that they could be fearing that he is captured already, and maybe the U.S. doesn't really know it's him. So maybe if they throw this out there, they will give the sense that he's with his people. He's injured, but nonetheless he's with his people. So maybe they will release him.

And, of course, there is the sense that he could be injured or dead. And the last one, you know, of the scenarios that we're looking at is that perhaps this is a media campaign, that this is a media game.

O'BRIEN: The idea being there, Octavia, that an insurgent who's sort of injured and then brought back from the brink is much more powerful? Is that the theory behind that last one?

NASR: Right, Soledad, that is the theory. And also, you have to think about -- when we talk about insurgency in Iraq, there is no one insurgency group. It's not just one. There are hundreds of them. As a matter of fact, al Qaeda and Iraq is not the strongest insurgency in Iraq. They're not the most organized, when we look at them on the Internet and we look at their activity.

So basically, the idea is --- behind this media campaign -- is that they will announce that he's injured. He will get a lot of support. Then, a few weeks later, he comes back strong and he tries to unify the insurgency.

O'BRIEN: Well, I guess we'll see in a matter of time. Octavia Nasr is our senior editor of Arab affairs. Thanks, Octavia -- Bill.

NASR: Thank you.

HEMMER: From Iraq now to Syria. Word this week that Damascus will no longer cooperate with the U.S. on the war on terror. Is it now time to crank up the pressure on Damascus?

Democratic consultant Victor Kamber here this morning. Vic, good morning to you, down there in D.C.

VICTOR KAMBER, DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: Former RNC communications director, Cliff May, back with us, too. "Kamber and May" is what we call this segment.

Cliff, start here. How do you get Syria back in line?

CLIFF MAY, FMR. RNC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: You got to start to put a lot of pressure on Syria in every way you have and let them know that nothing is off the table. We believe that the dictator, Bashar Assad, has a range of advisers, from fairly moderate to fairly extreme. You want the moderate adviser to say, look, we had better be careful and not get the Americans angry at us. You don't want the hard-line advisers to say, we got to worry about al Qaeda, we got to worry about Saddam loyalist. But the Americans are paper tigers. You push them, they'll fall over.

HEMMER: So, then, Victor, where's the incentive for Syria to cooperate? Or do they just look to their east and figure out what happened in Baghdad two years ago?

KAMBER: Well, I think -- I think part of what Cliff said I'll agree with. We've got to be firm. The part that he says where everything's on table, I think that I understand where he's going with that, which means military, potentially, and we can't do that. You know, to hear Cliff -- we've done that on Iran, we've done that on North Korea, we should do it on Syria. We don't have the capability, we don't have the resources. And we would be a paper tiger.

What we need to do, beside putting whatever economic and diplomatic pressure we could, we need to, once again, go to our world friends, our allies out there, and sell our democracy again to them, so that France and Germany and Britain, et cetera, are all a part of this and collectively, we put a Syria on notice.

HEMMER: In a word, can the U.S. win in Iraq if you don't clamp down on Syria? If all these foreign fighters -- or, you know, Iraq's getting all this support from...

KAMBER: Bill, I don't think -- based on what we're seeing, I'm not sure U.S. could win in Iraq if there wasn't another country in the world, the way it's going.

MAY: Well, first of all, we don't know for sure if the command in control of the insurgency comes out of Syria. If it does, obviously, at a certain point, you'll have to take out that command in control. It cannot be immune. Look, I have great difficulty with what Victor is suggesting, which is a totally defeatist attitude. If we can't win in Iraq, if we can't fight a 21st century war and win it, then we lose, we might as well dissolve the entire military, because there's no point in having a military designed to fight the Soviet Union.

KAMBER: Well, it depends on, again, what the definition of win is. And we haven't had that. Can we -- have we got rid of Saddam Hussein? Yes. Is there a form of democracy there? Yes. But can we stabilize the country as an occupier? I'm not sure, given what we're seeing right now.

HEMMER: Let's go to the second topic now. Back to the filibuster ordeal. Vic, do you think Senator Bill Frist is a clear loser in all this? Why?

KAMBER: Mainly because he put so much on the line, and it didn't happen. And loser only in the context of his national aspirations. I think he put running for president and his national aspirations above the Senate and above common sense, frankly. He should have been the one leading this compromise or be a part of this compromise. He clearly wasn't. He was the last man standing afterwards...

O'BRIEN: Cliff, do you think he did damage to himself?

MAY: What, and his future? No, I don't. Actually, I don't at all, because he said he was going to go down to the max on this, and he wasn't able to do it because of the so-called moderate groups who decided to make the decision on this and -- I don't think he's hurt, Bill Frist is hurt, at all on this.

As far as the whole filibuster thing, I've been back and forth on it. I'm reminded of what the Communist leader Johann Lye (ph) said when I asked about the French Revolution and the 18th century, was it a success or failure? He said it's too soon to tell. And I think that's case here. It's too soon to tell who's really won in this one.

HEMMER: So, then where does the argument go next?

MAY: Well I think the argument goes next to when you have probably a Supreme Court nominee. Look, what this -- what this deal says is that the Democrats can keep the filibuster if they only use it in extraordinary circumstances, which was the tradition for 200 years. If they keep the deal, we're back to where we were and that's fine. But if they pull out that gun from their holster every time President Bush has a nominee, then we're back to where we started and the Republicans are going to say we're going to take away the filibuster because you can't use it responsibly.

KAMBER: And they won't -- and I think that we know that they won't do it. I think what Senator McCain said, we know pornography when we see it. We know outrageous, inappropriate appointments when we see them. I think those 14 senators will agree.

HEMMER: Thank you, gentlemen. We're out of time. Victor, Cliff, we'll talk again. Kamber and May, from D.C. -- Soledad.

(WEATHER REPORT)

HEMMER: For years, there have been rumors of a link between hair dye and cancer. Now a new study may put an end to those rumors. We'll get to that in a moment.

And you may already know how to protect yourself from theft of identity. But what should Big Business do to fight the problem? Andy is "Minding Your Business," just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Dr. Sanjay Gupta has got the day off. But there's medical news this morning to talk about. New research appears seems to dispel the notion that hair dye can cause cancer. Dr. Michael Thun is with the American Cancer Society.

Nice to see you, doctor. Thanks for being with us this morning.

Was there ever any solid research that, in fact, said that hair dye did cause cancer?

DR. MICHAEL THUN, AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY: Well, there's been a lot of study of hair dye since the mid 1970s, when it was found that some of the dyes themselves, because they bind to proteins and so on, can get into cells and damage the genetic material. So it's been an interest for about 30 years, this question of does hair dye actually increase the risk of any cancer?

O'BRIEN: And what kind of cancer specifically were people looking at here? What do they think it might impact?

THUN: Well, it was the whole gamut from breast cancer. There was a lot of attention to cancers of blood-forming organisms -- organs, like leukemias and lymphomas, and recently bladder cancer.

And what this study found, which was by Spanish and Canadian investigators, it looked at 79 studies that are published in the literature, put them all together, and found no association at all between hair dye use and overall cancer, breast cancer, or bladder cancer. It found a very small, borderline association with cancers of the blood-forming organs, particularly non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

O'BRIEN: In your mind, then, is this study, which really studied other studies, is this the final word?

THUN: Well, it's been my impression that with hair dyes, you never have the final word, you can never prove that something's 100 percent safe.

But what you can say, is that after really extensive study, if there's a risk, it's sufficiently small that it's hard to measure. So it should be way down on someone's list of things to worry about.

O'BRIEN: As you well know, the rule is when you're pregnant, don't use hair dye. It's -- as a doctor if you patient came to you who was pregnant, and said, so now do I dye my hair, or not dye my hair, what would you advise her?

THUN: Well, it's obviously her choice, but when you're that age, you hardly need to dye your hair, and I'd advise her not to.

O'BRIEN: Oh, Dr. Thun. Thanks for joining us this morning. We certainly appreciate your insight. We look forward to seeing any further studies on this -- Bill.

THUN: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: All right, Soledad.

HEMMER: Walking may be good medicine for breast cancer survivors. The study out that says walking only three to five hours a week could cut the risk of death in half for breast cancer patients. Researchers say exercise may help because it lowers levels of hormones linked to breast cancer, and that study can be found in today's "Journal of the American Medical Association."

Identity theft, one of the fastest growing crimes in America today. Andy looks at what the government should be doing to protect you. He's "Minding Your Business," after a break here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: All right, welcome back. Here's Jack.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR; The Scrushy trial could be in trouble. More on the problem of identity theft. And a social note of some importance to those of us who work around this place.

Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business."

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: I've got it all this morning, right, or at least a little bit of it.

Let's start off with identity theft. Obviously, we've been talking about this a lot over the past couple days and weeks. And you know, for years now, we've been told that a lot of this identity theft was our fault. We should be shredding our documents, be careful when you buy that book on Amazon. Are you really sure you want to do online banking? And now with this explosion of cases, I think it's pretty clear that it's really not our fault, that this is a situation that's out of control, that the government needs to step in and do a lot more here.

Here are some things that the government should be doing, I think, to help clear this matter up, to really start making some inroads. First of all, immediate notification. We've been talking about this a lot. Because California has this as a state law, Senator Feinstein has proposed this as a national bill. It went nowhere in 2004. Let's get on the stick with this one. Maybe the hiring more cops, well, maybe coordinating investigations. Now we have the FBI, Secret Service. Maybe there should be an FBI task force, and setting one clear national standard. That, again, applies to the national legislation. Let's have a bill here to get this thing going.

CAFFERTY: Sure. Yes, we're too busy working on stem-cell research.

SERWER: Oh, that. Yes, that's right.

Now, our favorite corporate rogue trial, the Scrushy trial in Birmingham, Alabama. The jury says it's deadlocked. Maybe it had to do with the fact that the defense attorneys talked about all those hundreds of thousands of Americans who lost their lives defending our freedom. Remember that? It seems to have worked. They said they needed an explanation from the judge, quote, in laymen's terms.

CAFFERTY: And this is a judge that should have just walked off this case in the beginning. I mean, she's friends with members of the family. She rides horses at the Scrushy -- this whole thing is just a joke.

O'BRIEN: Yes, it's going to be very interesting what happens if this trial ends up with a hung jury.

CAFFERTY: And finally, the note of personal interest for everyone here on the AMERICAN MORNING family. Some people wait a lifetime for a moment like this. We understand that one of our cracker jack young producers, Todd Bonan (ph), has gotten engaged to a former cracker jack producer here, Sarah Lieder (ph).

HEMMER: Finally!

SERWER: Finally?

HEMMER: Finally?

SERWER: Yes, right, a cracker jack former. She worked for the 'M' word network for a while there. Finally.

CAFFERTY: The which one?

SERWER: The 'M' word. Oh, CNBC. The 'C' word.

(CROSSTALK)

CAFFERTY: ... that failed disgrace of a show?

SERWER: Congratulations.

HEMMER: Todd finally did it.

SERWER: He did. Sarah, it's not going to be that bad, right? We should really say that. Not since Antony and Cleopatra, not since Bobby Brown and Whitney Houston, not since, who else?

(CROSSTALK)

CAFFERTY: Kind of interesting to know the way it happened. Sarah produced for me, Todd produced for you, and then they just sat back-to-back down in the newsroom for months and months and months.

SERWER: And they tried to hide it.

O'BRIEN: Oh, and we all knew what was going on. Please!

SERWER: We did. We knew for years, or months or something.

HEMMER: Congratulations.

SERWER: Congratulations. Isn't that great?

O'BRIEN: That's great. That's nice news. Yes, that is.

SERWER: Good stuff.

O'BRIEN: Thanks, Andy.

CAFFERTY: It is Wednesday, time now for "The Cafferty File," a look at things people say, things that got our attention, beginning with this, "I can do whatever I want. I'm the mayor." Oscar Goodman, the mayor of Las Vegas, Nevada, as his other job is Playboy's celebrity playmate photographer.

"This is a man who has murdered a minimum of 300,000 people, and we're supposed to feel sorry for him because somebody took his picture." Graham Dudman, managing editor of "The Sun" under there in England, under fire for running photos of Saddam in his shorts.

"It's always good to know a trade," Murray Walton, the manager of the pest control board in the state of Texas on Representative Tom DeLay, completing his eight hours of training, which he does each year, in order to maintain his active status as an exterminator.

"I dropped out of Yale after a few semesters. Actually, dropped out isn't quite accurate. Was asked to leave would be more like it. Twice. And the second time around, they said don't come back." Vice President Dick Cheney telling Auburn University graduates about his own undergraduate experience.

SERWER: Did not know that. CAFFERTY: And finally, "There's a rumor that Dick Cheney may run for president in 2008. If he wins, that will make him the first three-term president since Roosevelt." Jay Leno on "The Tonight Show," doing a little barb at the president.

HEMMER: Did not know about his college days to that degree.

SERWER: No, so to speak.

CAFFERTY: That's why it's important to watch the Cafferty File, you learn things.

HEMMER: I'm telling you. And you taught us the other day that at the frog jump, that you've got to jump three times in a line in order to qualify.

O'BRIEN: Who knew?

HEMMER: Who knew?

SERWER: Just put a little tabasco on those frogs.

HEMMER: There we go.

Letterman had some fun last night talking about the Donald.

Listen here to "Late Night."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID LETTERMAN, "LATE NIGHT" HOST: How many people are familiar with Donald Trump? you know Donald Trump?

(APPLAUSE)

Well, he has -- now he's starting his own online university, online university. So when you're all done, you just press click and you get a copy of your diploma, and it's a four-year college online on the Internet, and it's Trump University. They already -- I mean, he's done a lot of thinking. They have the mascot for Trump University. It's that thing on Donald's head.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Late show last night. You were talking about this the other day, right? Monday. Beat him to it.

CAFFERTY: Long before Letterman, we might point out.

SERWER: Well, he gets some of his material from watching this program.

O'BRIEN: Right.

Well, coming up in just a moment, part three of our series, "Surviving Family Vacations." Today, tips on finding the right theme park for the right price for your family. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired May 25, 2005 - 08:30   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: We could soon find out if the so- called runaway bride will face any charges. I know you remember Jennifer Wilbanks. She disappeared days before her wedding, sparking that massive search. She later turns up in New Mexico, claiming she'd been kidnapped and then later she admitted, oh, I wasn't kidnapped. Well, the district attorney in Gwinnett County, Georgia, is expected to hold a news conference less than three hours from now. We will learn more then. And of course, CNN will most likely cover that live, if that's possible.
And a set of identical quadruplets making their first public appearance. Take a look. Daphne, Chloe, Bonnie and Adele were conceived without fertility drugs or invitro fertilization. Fewer than 50 such sets have ever been recorded in the world. The babies were born two months ago. Well, they are cute, aren't they? Two may go home this week. The mom says she'll use homemade ankle bracelets to keep track of her new daughters, because they look exactly alike. That would be tough.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: It's really hard to tell -- I couldn't tell my sons apart, except that one finally got hair and one didn't.

COSTELLO: But don't you wonder if you were calling name by the other's name and you'd never know it.

O'BRIEN: They're too young to know. You can just switch in the middle. See, they'd never know, Carol. I got a lot of tips like that. Thanks, Carol.

Well, the U.S. military not sure what to make of a message that's been posted on Islamic Web sites, supposedly from al Qaeda in Iraq. The sites say this: "Pray for the healing of our sheik Abu Musab al Zarqawi from an injury that he suffered in the path of God." How important is this? What does it really mean?

Our senior editor of Arab affairs is Octavia Nasr. She's live in Atlanta for us this morning. Octavia, nice to see you. Good morning to you. First and foremost, any sense that this is real?

OCTAVIA NASR, CNN SR. EDITOR OF ARAB AFFAIRS: There is a sense that this could be real, because of the source and because of the language. You know, we monitor these Web sites all the time, so we have a sense to what sounds like al Qaeda and Iraq and what doesn't sound like it. It does sound like al Qaeda and Iraq.

The person, Abu Maysara al Iraqi, who is supposedly the source on this, is someone who has posted claims of responsibility before. He has posted messages from al Qaeda and Iraq. So there is a sense that it could be true. Can we authenticate it? Can we say for sure it is from al Qaeda and Iraq? No way we can do that, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: The U.S. is saying the same thing. U.S. military, U.S. Lieutenant Colonel Steve Boylan says this: "We don't know if the report is fact or fiction or even what of his health is." If you assume that the goal here is to energize the insurgency, what exactly is the point about bragging that the leader is injured?

NASR: They're not bragging about him being injured. As a matter of fact, if you read the language, they are saying that this is heroic, this would be a heroic wound. But in no way are they bragging. And this is a first for al Qaeda and Iraq or any insurgency group for that matter. They usually announce deaths, because they're celebration. They're celebration into martyrdom.

They never before announced that someone was seriously wounded, they never before asked for the -- what they call the brothers to pray for the leader. So this is a first, and in a way, it leads us to believe that maybe, maybe if he is, indeed, injured, maybe the injury is serious, and it will lead to death. That is, if he's not dead already, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: And in fact, Octavia, let's run through some of the scenarios that you think could exist here. There's four of them. I'll tick them off and then you just fill me in on what you what you think. First, it could be a distraction, sort of make the U.S. believe this is the case, distract them from the ultimate goal. Is that right?

NASR: Right. It could be a distraction, because obviously, the offensives are intensifying. And this group in particular is very high interest. So maybe they're feeling the pressure, they need to move around so they throw this out there to distract and confuse the U.S. and Iraqi forces in order to give themselves a chance to move him around or move around or regroup. So that's a possibility.

O'BRIEN: Which is kind of your second scenario, too. Could just be a ploy, sort of confuse the U.S. military. Or he could really be dead or injured. Is that the theory you give most credence to here?

NASR: Yes. And to go back to the ploy idea, there is a sense, also, when you read all these Web sites, there is a sense that they could be fearing that he is captured already, and maybe the U.S. doesn't really know it's him. So maybe if they throw this out there, they will give the sense that he's with his people. He's injured, but nonetheless he's with his people. So maybe they will release him.

And, of course, there is the sense that he could be injured or dead. And the last one, you know, of the scenarios that we're looking at is that perhaps this is a media campaign, that this is a media game.

O'BRIEN: The idea being there, Octavia, that an insurgent who's sort of injured and then brought back from the brink is much more powerful? Is that the theory behind that last one?

NASR: Right, Soledad, that is the theory. And also, you have to think about -- when we talk about insurgency in Iraq, there is no one insurgency group. It's not just one. There are hundreds of them. As a matter of fact, al Qaeda and Iraq is not the strongest insurgency in Iraq. They're not the most organized, when we look at them on the Internet and we look at their activity.

So basically, the idea is --- behind this media campaign -- is that they will announce that he's injured. He will get a lot of support. Then, a few weeks later, he comes back strong and he tries to unify the insurgency.

O'BRIEN: Well, I guess we'll see in a matter of time. Octavia Nasr is our senior editor of Arab affairs. Thanks, Octavia -- Bill.

NASR: Thank you.

HEMMER: From Iraq now to Syria. Word this week that Damascus will no longer cooperate with the U.S. on the war on terror. Is it now time to crank up the pressure on Damascus?

Democratic consultant Victor Kamber here this morning. Vic, good morning to you, down there in D.C.

VICTOR KAMBER, DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: Former RNC communications director, Cliff May, back with us, too. "Kamber and May" is what we call this segment.

Cliff, start here. How do you get Syria back in line?

CLIFF MAY, FMR. RNC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: You got to start to put a lot of pressure on Syria in every way you have and let them know that nothing is off the table. We believe that the dictator, Bashar Assad, has a range of advisers, from fairly moderate to fairly extreme. You want the moderate adviser to say, look, we had better be careful and not get the Americans angry at us. You don't want the hard-line advisers to say, we got to worry about al Qaeda, we got to worry about Saddam loyalist. But the Americans are paper tigers. You push them, they'll fall over.

HEMMER: So, then, Victor, where's the incentive for Syria to cooperate? Or do they just look to their east and figure out what happened in Baghdad two years ago?

KAMBER: Well, I think -- I think part of what Cliff said I'll agree with. We've got to be firm. The part that he says where everything's on table, I think that I understand where he's going with that, which means military, potentially, and we can't do that. You know, to hear Cliff -- we've done that on Iran, we've done that on North Korea, we should do it on Syria. We don't have the capability, we don't have the resources. And we would be a paper tiger.

What we need to do, beside putting whatever economic and diplomatic pressure we could, we need to, once again, go to our world friends, our allies out there, and sell our democracy again to them, so that France and Germany and Britain, et cetera, are all a part of this and collectively, we put a Syria on notice.

HEMMER: In a word, can the U.S. win in Iraq if you don't clamp down on Syria? If all these foreign fighters -- or, you know, Iraq's getting all this support from...

KAMBER: Bill, I don't think -- based on what we're seeing, I'm not sure U.S. could win in Iraq if there wasn't another country in the world, the way it's going.

MAY: Well, first of all, we don't know for sure if the command in control of the insurgency comes out of Syria. If it does, obviously, at a certain point, you'll have to take out that command in control. It cannot be immune. Look, I have great difficulty with what Victor is suggesting, which is a totally defeatist attitude. If we can't win in Iraq, if we can't fight a 21st century war and win it, then we lose, we might as well dissolve the entire military, because there's no point in having a military designed to fight the Soviet Union.

KAMBER: Well, it depends on, again, what the definition of win is. And we haven't had that. Can we -- have we got rid of Saddam Hussein? Yes. Is there a form of democracy there? Yes. But can we stabilize the country as an occupier? I'm not sure, given what we're seeing right now.

HEMMER: Let's go to the second topic now. Back to the filibuster ordeal. Vic, do you think Senator Bill Frist is a clear loser in all this? Why?

KAMBER: Mainly because he put so much on the line, and it didn't happen. And loser only in the context of his national aspirations. I think he put running for president and his national aspirations above the Senate and above common sense, frankly. He should have been the one leading this compromise or be a part of this compromise. He clearly wasn't. He was the last man standing afterwards...

O'BRIEN: Cliff, do you think he did damage to himself?

MAY: What, and his future? No, I don't. Actually, I don't at all, because he said he was going to go down to the max on this, and he wasn't able to do it because of the so-called moderate groups who decided to make the decision on this and -- I don't think he's hurt, Bill Frist is hurt, at all on this.

As far as the whole filibuster thing, I've been back and forth on it. I'm reminded of what the Communist leader Johann Lye (ph) said when I asked about the French Revolution and the 18th century, was it a success or failure? He said it's too soon to tell. And I think that's case here. It's too soon to tell who's really won in this one.

HEMMER: So, then where does the argument go next?

MAY: Well I think the argument goes next to when you have probably a Supreme Court nominee. Look, what this -- what this deal says is that the Democrats can keep the filibuster if they only use it in extraordinary circumstances, which was the tradition for 200 years. If they keep the deal, we're back to where we were and that's fine. But if they pull out that gun from their holster every time President Bush has a nominee, then we're back to where we started and the Republicans are going to say we're going to take away the filibuster because you can't use it responsibly.

KAMBER: And they won't -- and I think that we know that they won't do it. I think what Senator McCain said, we know pornography when we see it. We know outrageous, inappropriate appointments when we see them. I think those 14 senators will agree.

HEMMER: Thank you, gentlemen. We're out of time. Victor, Cliff, we'll talk again. Kamber and May, from D.C. -- Soledad.

(WEATHER REPORT)

HEMMER: For years, there have been rumors of a link between hair dye and cancer. Now a new study may put an end to those rumors. We'll get to that in a moment.

And you may already know how to protect yourself from theft of identity. But what should Big Business do to fight the problem? Andy is "Minding Your Business," just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: Dr. Sanjay Gupta has got the day off. But there's medical news this morning to talk about. New research appears seems to dispel the notion that hair dye can cause cancer. Dr. Michael Thun is with the American Cancer Society.

Nice to see you, doctor. Thanks for being with us this morning.

Was there ever any solid research that, in fact, said that hair dye did cause cancer?

DR. MICHAEL THUN, AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY: Well, there's been a lot of study of hair dye since the mid 1970s, when it was found that some of the dyes themselves, because they bind to proteins and so on, can get into cells and damage the genetic material. So it's been an interest for about 30 years, this question of does hair dye actually increase the risk of any cancer?

O'BRIEN: And what kind of cancer specifically were people looking at here? What do they think it might impact?

THUN: Well, it was the whole gamut from breast cancer. There was a lot of attention to cancers of blood-forming organisms -- organs, like leukemias and lymphomas, and recently bladder cancer.

And what this study found, which was by Spanish and Canadian investigators, it looked at 79 studies that are published in the literature, put them all together, and found no association at all between hair dye use and overall cancer, breast cancer, or bladder cancer. It found a very small, borderline association with cancers of the blood-forming organs, particularly non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

O'BRIEN: In your mind, then, is this study, which really studied other studies, is this the final word?

THUN: Well, it's been my impression that with hair dyes, you never have the final word, you can never prove that something's 100 percent safe.

But what you can say, is that after really extensive study, if there's a risk, it's sufficiently small that it's hard to measure. So it should be way down on someone's list of things to worry about.

O'BRIEN: As you well know, the rule is when you're pregnant, don't use hair dye. It's -- as a doctor if you patient came to you who was pregnant, and said, so now do I dye my hair, or not dye my hair, what would you advise her?

THUN: Well, it's obviously her choice, but when you're that age, you hardly need to dye your hair, and I'd advise her not to.

O'BRIEN: Oh, Dr. Thun. Thanks for joining us this morning. We certainly appreciate your insight. We look forward to seeing any further studies on this -- Bill.

THUN: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: All right, Soledad.

HEMMER: Walking may be good medicine for breast cancer survivors. The study out that says walking only three to five hours a week could cut the risk of death in half for breast cancer patients. Researchers say exercise may help because it lowers levels of hormones linked to breast cancer, and that study can be found in today's "Journal of the American Medical Association."

Identity theft, one of the fastest growing crimes in America today. Andy looks at what the government should be doing to protect you. He's "Minding Your Business," after a break here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: All right, welcome back. Here's Jack.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR; The Scrushy trial could be in trouble. More on the problem of identity theft. And a social note of some importance to those of us who work around this place.

Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business."

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: I've got it all this morning, right, or at least a little bit of it.

Let's start off with identity theft. Obviously, we've been talking about this a lot over the past couple days and weeks. And you know, for years now, we've been told that a lot of this identity theft was our fault. We should be shredding our documents, be careful when you buy that book on Amazon. Are you really sure you want to do online banking? And now with this explosion of cases, I think it's pretty clear that it's really not our fault, that this is a situation that's out of control, that the government needs to step in and do a lot more here.

Here are some things that the government should be doing, I think, to help clear this matter up, to really start making some inroads. First of all, immediate notification. We've been talking about this a lot. Because California has this as a state law, Senator Feinstein has proposed this as a national bill. It went nowhere in 2004. Let's get on the stick with this one. Maybe the hiring more cops, well, maybe coordinating investigations. Now we have the FBI, Secret Service. Maybe there should be an FBI task force, and setting one clear national standard. That, again, applies to the national legislation. Let's have a bill here to get this thing going.

CAFFERTY: Sure. Yes, we're too busy working on stem-cell research.

SERWER: Oh, that. Yes, that's right.

Now, our favorite corporate rogue trial, the Scrushy trial in Birmingham, Alabama. The jury says it's deadlocked. Maybe it had to do with the fact that the defense attorneys talked about all those hundreds of thousands of Americans who lost their lives defending our freedom. Remember that? It seems to have worked. They said they needed an explanation from the judge, quote, in laymen's terms.

CAFFERTY: And this is a judge that should have just walked off this case in the beginning. I mean, she's friends with members of the family. She rides horses at the Scrushy -- this whole thing is just a joke.

O'BRIEN: Yes, it's going to be very interesting what happens if this trial ends up with a hung jury.

CAFFERTY: And finally, the note of personal interest for everyone here on the AMERICAN MORNING family. Some people wait a lifetime for a moment like this. We understand that one of our cracker jack young producers, Todd Bonan (ph), has gotten engaged to a former cracker jack producer here, Sarah Lieder (ph).

HEMMER: Finally!

SERWER: Finally?

HEMMER: Finally?

SERWER: Yes, right, a cracker jack former. She worked for the 'M' word network for a while there. Finally.

CAFFERTY: The which one?

SERWER: The 'M' word. Oh, CNBC. The 'C' word.

(CROSSTALK)

CAFFERTY: ... that failed disgrace of a show?

SERWER: Congratulations.

HEMMER: Todd finally did it.

SERWER: He did. Sarah, it's not going to be that bad, right? We should really say that. Not since Antony and Cleopatra, not since Bobby Brown and Whitney Houston, not since, who else?

(CROSSTALK)

CAFFERTY: Kind of interesting to know the way it happened. Sarah produced for me, Todd produced for you, and then they just sat back-to-back down in the newsroom for months and months and months.

SERWER: And they tried to hide it.

O'BRIEN: Oh, and we all knew what was going on. Please!

SERWER: We did. We knew for years, or months or something.

HEMMER: Congratulations.

SERWER: Congratulations. Isn't that great?

O'BRIEN: That's great. That's nice news. Yes, that is.

SERWER: Good stuff.

O'BRIEN: Thanks, Andy.

CAFFERTY: It is Wednesday, time now for "The Cafferty File," a look at things people say, things that got our attention, beginning with this, "I can do whatever I want. I'm the mayor." Oscar Goodman, the mayor of Las Vegas, Nevada, as his other job is Playboy's celebrity playmate photographer.

"This is a man who has murdered a minimum of 300,000 people, and we're supposed to feel sorry for him because somebody took his picture." Graham Dudman, managing editor of "The Sun" under there in England, under fire for running photos of Saddam in his shorts.

"It's always good to know a trade," Murray Walton, the manager of the pest control board in the state of Texas on Representative Tom DeLay, completing his eight hours of training, which he does each year, in order to maintain his active status as an exterminator.

"I dropped out of Yale after a few semesters. Actually, dropped out isn't quite accurate. Was asked to leave would be more like it. Twice. And the second time around, they said don't come back." Vice President Dick Cheney telling Auburn University graduates about his own undergraduate experience.

SERWER: Did not know that. CAFFERTY: And finally, "There's a rumor that Dick Cheney may run for president in 2008. If he wins, that will make him the first three-term president since Roosevelt." Jay Leno on "The Tonight Show," doing a little barb at the president.

HEMMER: Did not know about his college days to that degree.

SERWER: No, so to speak.

CAFFERTY: That's why it's important to watch the Cafferty File, you learn things.

HEMMER: I'm telling you. And you taught us the other day that at the frog jump, that you've got to jump three times in a line in order to qualify.

O'BRIEN: Who knew?

HEMMER: Who knew?

SERWER: Just put a little tabasco on those frogs.

HEMMER: There we go.

Letterman had some fun last night talking about the Donald.

Listen here to "Late Night."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID LETTERMAN, "LATE NIGHT" HOST: How many people are familiar with Donald Trump? you know Donald Trump?

(APPLAUSE)

Well, he has -- now he's starting his own online university, online university. So when you're all done, you just press click and you get a copy of your diploma, and it's a four-year college online on the Internet, and it's Trump University. They already -- I mean, he's done a lot of thinking. They have the mascot for Trump University. It's that thing on Donald's head.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Late show last night. You were talking about this the other day, right? Monday. Beat him to it.

CAFFERTY: Long before Letterman, we might point out.

SERWER: Well, he gets some of his material from watching this program.

O'BRIEN: Right.

Well, coming up in just a moment, part three of our series, "Surviving Family Vacations." Today, tips on finding the right theme park for the right price for your family. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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