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CNN Live At Daybreak

Iraq Compromise; Al Qaeda Divided?; Quake Aftermath; Seafood Struggle

Aired October 13, 2005 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: But first, "Now in the News."
The insider trading investigation of Senator Bill Frist has taken a big step forward. "The New York Times" and "The Washington Post" report that the Securities and Exchange Commission has subpoenaed stock records from the majority leader. Frist is also expected to testify under oath in the investigation.

President Bush plans to speak to U.S. troops in Iraq this morning. The president will be taking part in a teleconference with soldiers stationed in Tikrit. CNN will provide live coverage at 9:45 Eastern.

Looks like it will be a royal birthday celebration today for former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Queen Elizabeth is one of the many luminaries on the guest list for Thatcher's 80th birthday party.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: That's not possible.

COSTELLO: It makes you feel old, doesn't it?

MYERS: That's not possible that she's 80. She looks -- she just looks like she's 60.

COSTELLO: I remember her walking around with Ronald Reagan, I mean clear as day in my head.

MYERS: Yes, exactly. Well I guess we lost Ronald Reagan, too, so I guess they were -- I guess they were old together, we just didn't realize it, I mean.

COSTELLO: Yes.

MYERS: Good morning, everybody.

(WEATHER REPORT)

COSTELLO: All right, thank you, Chad.

The vote is coming this weekend. A compromise by Iraqi lawmakers sheds at least a glimmer of hope that Iraqis might approve the country's new constitution on Saturday. It could go a long way in determining the future of U.S. involvement in Iraq.

CNN's Aneesh Raman live in Baghdad with details. They're already voting this morning -- Aneesh?

ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They are, Carol, in hospitals and detainees who are at prisons are getting to vote starting today. We are just a day away from Iraq's constitutional referendum. And that deal you mentioned could very well change the political landscape here. It is also a deal that may have simply come too late.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A political breakthrough of sorts. Amid elaborate ceremony, a deal announced between the Shi'a Kurd coalition and the largest Sunni political party.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): This is a historic day, a day of national consensus.

RAMAN: Consensus that the current draft constitution will not be the last, that changes can be made following December's general election and that another referendum will take place next year. A success with some Sunnis now urging a yes vote on Saturday.

But the most contentious issue, how powerful the central government will be now is...

MAHMOUD OTHMAN, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEMBER: Just delayed until the next assembly. The next assembly will deal with their problems.

RAMAN: Which is why not all Sunni parties are on board, still urging their community to vote down the constitution, despite the new compromise. And given only a few days remain until the referendum, the stage still set for a majority of Sunnis to do just that.

(on camera): To reject a constitution, a majority of voters, or two-thirds of three provinces, need to vote it down. But a failed referendum is not the worst case scenario. The greater fear is that it will pass, but barely.

(voice-over): Such an outcome could lead to further violence.

MICHAEL RUBIN, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INST.: Because that's indicative that the Arab-Sunnis mobilize to vote and still lost anyway, and, therefore, they may feel even more disenfranchised.

RAMAN: But politics is zero sum (ph). If the Sunnis win, others lose. A failed referendum means the arduous process starts over.

LEITH KUBBA, IRAQI GOVT. SPOKESMAN: It will add another six months of an interim period transitional government, and a lot of people would like to get on with their lives.

RAMAN: In a matter of days, questions of huge consequence will be answered. Will Sunnis participate in the political process or stay away? Will U.S. troops have to remain longer than anticipated? And most importantly, how many Iraqis will turn out to vote? How many are still invested in the country's democratic experiment?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

And, Carol, as you mentioned, voting is under way for those who are at hospitals, for detainees who are not convicted yet of any crime.

But the big question out of this deal, because of this deal, we are going to have another constitutional referendum either way. Even if it passes, another referendum comes next year. And if it fails, a new government comes in that again puts a referendum out next year. So for a lot of Iraqis, the question is why vote on Saturday? They're going to have to vote again on a new constitution and that could keep a lot of people at home -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Yes. A question about the detainees who are allowed to vote, does that include Saddam Hussein?

RAMAN: Well, according to Iraq's Electoral Commission, Saddam Hussein is eligible to vote. He has not been convicted of any crime, he's only been charged. His trial set to begin next week. But it's really, we're told, up to the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior and the multinational forces that are here to decide what high-level detainees get to vote. But as far as we understand, Saddam will have the opportunity to vote on the constitution of a country that he still claims he is the president of -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Aneesh Raman, reporting live for us this morning, thank you.

There are indications al Qaeda may be worried about its image. U.S. officials released a letter, which they say was sent from the terror network's number two man to its leader in Iraq. And it suggests the savage actions by insurgents are hurting public support for their cause.

More now from CNN's David Ensor.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): "We are in a battle," says Ayman al-Zawahiri in his letter to al Qaeda's commander in Iraq. "More than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media."

"We're not winning that media battle," Zawahiri suggests to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, "because you are horrifying ordinary Muslims by beheading hostages on camera and by attacking Shiite Muslims, even outside their mosques."

Many analysts agree.

MURHAF JOUEJATI, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY: Clearly, Zarqawi is the man in control. And so it remains to be seen whether he will take that counsel from Zawahiri into consideration or whether he will continue being foolhardy. ENSOR (on camera): That's what it is, you think?

JOUEJATI: I think so, because, again, if we are to place ourselves in the position of al Qaeda and its supporters, it would not make sense to divide Islamic ranks and certainly to divide, fragment -- force a fragmentation of Iraq along sectarian lines.

ENSOR (voice-over): Writing about car bombs killing innocent Shiites, Zawahiri says, "My opinion is that this matter won't be acceptable to the Muslim populace, however much you have tried to explain it, and this aversion will continue. Attacking Shiites is not helping," he says, "in the race for Muslim hearts and minds."

ADAM ERELI, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: This isn't a question of hearts and minds. It's a question of bodies and gore, quite frankly. Meaning that this is a network and this is a confederacy of evil that will stop at nothing to advance its radical agenda.

ENSOR (on camera): Except that al Qaeda, it now appears, is divided over tactics and media tragedy. U.S. intelligence officials are looking for ways to capitalize on that division.

David Ensor, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: Still to come on DAYBREAK, being a fisherman is a hard job. Now it's especially tough for shrimpers in Louisiana after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Where did they go? And will they ever come back?

But first, here's a look at what else is making news this Thursday.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: It has been six days now since the killer earthquake hit Pakistan and relief teams still have not reached some remote villages. In a televised address, the Pakistani president, Pervez Musharraf, says at least 23,000 people were killed by the quake in Pakistan alone. Another 50,000 were injured. President Musharraf also said his nation is in dire need and he appealed for more international help.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Pakistan yesterday. And she says the U.S. will likely add to the $50 million it's already committed to quake relief.

Even though relief supplies are arriving and the injured are now getting medical attention, at least some of them, some quake survivors says it's too little too late. And now more than a week after the 7.6 magnitude quake jolted South Asia, aftershocks are still being felt, making residents very edgy.

Let's get more now from CNN's Matthew Chance. He's live in Pakistan this morning. Hello -- Matthew.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi to you as well, Carol.

That's right, six days after this terrible earthquake struck, the situation is still desperate for hundreds of thousands of people who are still without medical relief, without food, without water. But particularly those people in the very remote areas of northeastern Pakistan where the earthquake most severely struck.

There has been an aid effort. Obviously it's been getting slowly under way over the past several days. It's now really picking up pace.

But as you mentioned earlier, there is still many tens of thousands of people who have still not been even visited by any of the rescue teams, yet alone (INAUDIBLE) or given food and water. Hard to say, a very desperate situation for those people. Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani President, underlining the need for more international assistance.

One of the big concerns, according to the United Nations that's leading now, coordinating, as we speak, the rescue and relief efforts, that they need many more helicopters. There are about (INAUDIBLE) the town where I am now, about 20 helicopters coming in a day, Ferrying in relief, taking away survivors so they can get medical treatment. The U.N. says they need at least three times that many in order for the situation to be brought more quickly under control -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Matthew Chance reporting live from Pakistan this morning.

Your news, money, weather and sports. It's 5:43 Eastern. Here's what's all new this morning.

We are getting conflicting reports out of southern Russia near Chechnya this morning. Police say they have now regained control of a rebel attack on government facilities in a resort town. In the meantime, local media in Russia reports civilians are still franticly fleeing gunfire in the streets. And there are reports of civilian and military casualties.

Chiron Corporation will soon start shipping millions of doses of its flu vaccine. Its license was suspended last year because of contamination problems. But yesterday, the FDA gave Chiron a clean bill of health, so that eases concerns of another vaccine shortage this year.

In money news, online search company Google and Comcast are reportedly interested in buying a stake in Time Warner's AOL. Negotiations are said to be in the early stages. Time Warner is the parent company of CNN.

In pop culture, musician Eric Clapton has gotten a book deal. The working title, the "Memoirs of Eric Clapton." Clever, isn't it? It's expected to be released by Doubleday in 2007. The financial terms are not being disclosed.

In sports, 16-year-old Michelle Wie makes her professional debut today at the LPGA Samsung World Championship. Wie already has endorsement deals with Nike and Sony worth 10 million smackers. That makes her the highest-paid female golfer ever -- Chad.

MYERS: So I was just thinking, Carol.

COSTELLO: Yes.

MYERS: She could turn pro and retire on the same day.

COSTELLO: As a very wealthy woman.

MYERS: And she's a 10 millionaire.

COSTELLO: Right.

MYERS: No, I think she has to wear those Nike shorts and stuff to get that money. But anyway, you get the idea. Congratulations to her. You know you assume that she's been playing pro for so long. Congrats that she was actually playing as an amateur for so long as well.

(WEATHER REPORT)

Back to you.

COSTELLO: I think that's an understatement today.

Thank you -- Chad.

MYERS: Sure.

COSTELLO: Hurricane Katrina affected everything from gas prices to unemployment, but it also clobbered shrimpers. Coming up, we'll talk to an expert about the Louisiana shrimping industry both before and after this year's devastating hurricanes.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: People who lived in New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward are finally being allowed to return home six weeks after Hurricane Katrina destroyed the area. Many returned to find their homes still standing, but certainly not livable. The Lower Ninth was hardest hit by Katrina when the levee broke. Water rose all the way to the rooftops of some homes. But, as you can see, people could only look. They actually had to leave by a 6:00 curfew.

There are 22,000 hurricane victims still living in shelters this morning, but this weekend is the federal government's self-imposed deadline for getting them all out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VICE ADM. THAD W. ALLEN, HEAD OF HURRICANE RELIEF: The president mentioned the middle of October. The real goal here is to get the folks out of shelters and get them into a transition-housing situation that will allow them to be able to plan their future and where they ultimately want to be.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: FEMA says it's still working on finding places for the evacuees to stay. No word on if that weekend deadline will be met.

Monstrous storms, rising fuel prices, increased global competition, even before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita wrecked the Louisiana shrimping industry, well, it was a way of life on its way out.

Rex Caffey is with the Louisiana State University and the Louisiana Sea Grant Organization, and he joins us live this morning from Baton Rouge.

Good morning -- Rex.

REX CAFFEY, LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY: Good morning -- Carol.

COSTELLO: So tell us, will the industry ever come back?

CAFFEY: We believe it will. It's going to take some time. And we're concerned what that industry is going to look like when it does recover.

COSTELLO: What will it look like, do you think?

CAFFEY: Well, it's been under change, as you pointed out, for about 20 years because of competition, rising fuel costs, increasing regulatory constraints. And so we had lost about 65 percent of our shrimpers, about almost half of our commercial fishermen, in general, over the last two decades prior to these storms.

COSTELLO: So how much shrimp was still coming out prior to Hurricane Katrina?

CAFFEY: Well, we still led the nation in domestic shrimp landings. Louisiana was the heart and soul of shrimp production and seafood production. And we believe it will be again.

But what we've seen, virtually from one end of the coast to the other, is massive destruction. And not just the boats, but the infrastructure, the docks, the icehouses, the roads, the distribution channels, and more importantly, the market. The main market, which is New Orleans, temporarily is out of commission.

COSTELLO: Yes, the restaurants aren't opening and buying up all that shrimp to serve to their customers.

Let's talk about the shrimpers themselves, because it's not like these guys work for big industries. They're independent sorts, aren't they? CAFFEY: They are fiercely independent. There's not a long history of organization in Louisiana, and I think probably that's because there's been such a rich resource for so long people were able to survive on their own. And there hasn't been a history of a lot of group cooperative effort, and that may hurt them now. So as we try and recover and work with this industry, we're going to have to really pull together.

COSTELLO: How do you do that? And where did all the shrimpers go?

CAFFEY: That's a good question. A month and a half after Katrina, I think many of them are just now getting back to see what happened to their boats. You have to understand that some of the places that were hit hardest were virtually wiped off the map.

There are federal disaster aid programs that we're going to be working with through the Sea Grant Program to help these shrimpers. Federal disaster relief programs. The whole area of the northern Gulf indeed has been declared a federal fisheries disaster area. So that declaration will give us some funding and some availability to help those people.

COSTELLO: Yes. Hey, Chad has a question for you, Rex.

MYERS: Yes, I was kind of considering and concerned about the shrimp themselves. I mean are there still shrimp out there? Did they get damaged? Did that population get hurt?

CAFFEY: Well, we believe that there were some impacts in the worst areas of the storm. But shrimp are pretty resilient. They have a short lifecycle. We think they'll bounce back. Again, it's the infrastructure and the fishermen themselves that we're concerned about more.

MYERS: Maybe a little bit of time without being fished or, you know, hard fished, maybe that will actually make a better crop next year?

CAFFEY: Yes, it might. It might. That seems to be the Forrest Gump scenario.

MYERS: I guess -- Carol.

COSTELLO: The Forrest Gump scenario. That's right, because if people aren't like harvesting the shrimp, there will be a lot of shrimp when they come back.

CAFFEY: That's right.

MYERS: Maybe bigger.

COSTELLO: And bigger, right, we hope so.

Rex Caffey of the Louisiana State University and the Louisiana Sea Grant Organization, thank you for joining DAYBREAK this morning. Still on the subject of seafood, health officials are warning people to watch out for Gulf Coast oysters which could be contaminated with Hepatitis A. Twenty-nine people from Alabama, Florida and Tennessee got sick within a month of eating raw oysters from one Louisiana shellfish dealer. Oysters from other regions are said to be fine. So keep that in mind.

Here's a quick look at what's all new in the next hour of DAYBREAK.

Delta Air Lines is no longer a high flyer on the New York Stock Exchange. Will Delta default on pension plans?

And before you get too hot under the collar over high utility bills this winter, we'll find out if there's anything you can do beforehand.

We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: "Entertainment Headlines" for you this morning.

Rapper Eminem is putting the final touches on "Curtain Call." That is the title of his greatest hits album, which is set for release on December 6. It reportedly includes several hit songs, like, "My Name Is," "Lose Yourself" and "Stand."

The colorful life of the man who created secret agent James Bond may soon become a movie. Warner Brothers has reportedly agreed to back a film about a British author, Ian Fleming, who partly modeled 007 after himself. The deal comes as the 21st Bond movie, "Casino Royale," gears up for production in January with a new Bond man.

Fashion commentator Steven Cojocaru is recovering comfortably after receiving a second kidney transplant. This one was donated by his mother. The first one was donated in January by a friend, but had to be removed because of an infection. Cojo suffers from polycystic kidney disease. That's a hereditary disorder that causes cysts to grow on his kidneys. So he's doing fine. That's good news.

MYERS: Right.

COSTELLO: It's time to talk about energy prices, because the price of natural gas is going up, what, it could go up 70 percent in the midwestern states this winter.

MYERS: Yes.

COSTELLO: So Chad is offering you tips this morning.

MYERS: Well the problem is it already has gone up, right, so even if you try to lock in now, it may be too late, because they have already raised the prices on you for, you know, the therms for the winter.

But a few more tips on some things that you can do.

Change the filter in your furnace. If you -- I can guarantee you that 30 percent of you sitting out there are saying, what, there's a filter in my furnace? I didn't even know that.

COSTELLO: That includes me. What?

MYERS: Yes, there is a little paper filter in there. You can go buy them cheap. They are probably 99 cents to 2 bucks, if you buy the cheap ones. You want to buy a good one, sure, you can pay $10, but that's not necessary. You literally just have to get a new one.

And then if you have steam heat or water heat, it wouldn't be a bad idea to flush the radiators out, because sometimes you can get more water flow through those radiators with the clean water if you can get some of the rust out of those radiators.

And get an energy audit. Get somebody in your house, if you want to. If you don't know what you're doing, that's OK. For about 300 or 400 bucks, you can get somebody to come all the way through your house, tell you everything that's wrong with it. And they can even make all the recommendations.

And plug the leaks. Get out the caulk gun and get those leaking windows fixed. Or even...

COSTELLO: One of my favorite pastimes, getting out the caulk gun and caulking.

MYERS: It is. And you can hang it on your belt, Carol, and then you can pull your pants down a little bit so that you feel like a plumber. And you can get out there.

COSTELLO: I think it's time to start the next hour of DAYBREAK, actually.

MYERS: Maybe not.

COSTELLO: We'll be back in two minutes.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: It is Thursday, October 13.

Senator Frist gets a subpoena. Some say this could be a sign of what's to come for the Republican leader in the Senate.

Another waterlogged morning in the northeast. Now more families could be forced to evacuate their homes.

And residents of New Orleans' hardest hit district return home. What did they find?

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