Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Live Today

National Hurricane Center Gives Briefing on Hurricane Wilma

Aired October 19, 2005 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: And now with an update out of the National Hurricane Center, Max Mayfield. Let's listen in.
(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: ... of 82 millibars. That's the lowest pressure ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. It's currently a category-five hurricane.

I should go ahead and talk about the intensity forecast of this right now. The aircraft that is currently out there, or was out there during the night, rather, reported very small (INAUDIBLE) eye, two to four nautical miles in diameter. That's extremely small. And when we see those little pinhole eyes, they typically don't persist for any given length of time. We would expect to see fluctuations in intensity, and in fact, the aircraft reported that an outer eye wall appeared to be forming. And when that happens, if that continues to be develop, it will likely choke out inflow into the innermost eye wall. It will dissipate. The hurricane will likely weaken some, but we've got a lot of time for this hurricane to remain in the water, and that outermost eye wall will likely begin to contract and will go through these fluctuations for the next few days.

We don't really have the skill to forecast, you know, exactly when that's going to happen, but the bottom line here is we should expect to see some fluctuations in intensity, and we should plan on a major hurricane, most likely a category-four hurricane getting into the Gulf of Mexico.

The track forecast, I think by Friday morning, the center of the hurricane will be very near the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. After that, there is a trough of low-pressure forecast to move into the central Gulf of Mexico. That will turn Wilma towards the northeast, and it will start to accelerate, and we've had several calls today, and I just want to share this with you to make a point. People asking us, well, is it just going to hit Sarasota? Or is it going to hit Naples? Or is it going to Cape Saibel (ph) or hit Key West. And one thing that I'm not going to allow happen on this hurricane is to focus on that skinny black line. We've still got several days before landfall in the United States. We don't want to pinpoint this. We don't want to slice it too thin.

This is going to be larger size wise, and wherever it strikes in the United States, it will have an impact over a very, very large area. We need to understand that we have to consider all the hazards of the hurricane, the storm surge, and the wave action that will be tremendous with this hurricane, given the intensity and the size, and it is important where the center crosses the coast. If it does come onto the southwest coast of Florida, we could have a very, very high storm surge near to the south of where the center crosses the coast.

Remember, the winds go counterclockwise around that eye, so if you have a hurricane coming into the Gulf Coast of Florida, that storm surge will be highest just to the south of landfall point.

We really want to make sure that everyone in the Florida Keys understands the seriousness the situation. I'm very glad to hear that they're get the nonresidents out of the Florida Keys starting at noon today. That's a very good move, in my opinion, and there'll be further actions going on down there as time goes on.

Again, it's too early for watches and warnings. I suspect that will be the first question people ask, and the most likely scenario is that we will put up a hurricane watch sometime tomorrow afternoon. Of course, first, it will be for the Florida Keys. There are already warnings up down in Mexico, on the Yucatan portions of Belize, Swan Islands, the Caymans and the western portion of Cuba. So we're not forgetting our neighbors down there. We're coordinating with all those countries.

But for the U.S. interests, we need to pay attention to this, and we likely will have a major hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and we're going to have to deal with it, like it or not.

And I'll take -- just one more thing because I know there are some stations along the East Coast that are also taking this feed. If someone were to ask me how the season could get much worse, the answer would be about the only way that would happen is to have a hurricane impact New England, and I do want to at least mention the fact that we have some of the computer projections now that show Wilma, you know, after day four turning a little more towards the north, and that could cause an impact to New England. It's really too early to focus on that, but we need the folks up there to start thinking about it.

Yes?

QUESTION: (INAUDIBLE) at NBC 6.

Max, you've been doing this a long time. You now have a record- setting hurricane under your hands. Some of your team members have literally been gasping as they've been getting this information. Set aside the science for us in a second. What does your gut tell but the size and the strength of Wilma?

MAYFIELD: Well, we need to -- there's a time to talk about climatology, and we've tied the record for the number of storms. We've tied the record for the number of hurricanes, but right now we really need to focus on Wilma. If this were the only hurricane of the season, this would be the event of the year. But we've had other hurricanes.

And I guess if I could put it in perspective, you know, we had well over 1,000 lives lost in Katrina. If Wilma, you know, comes into the U.S. -- to the Florida coast as a category three or four hurricane, that potential for large loss of life is with us here with this hurricane.

And in fact, I remember back in June, my first congressional hearing this year, I mentioned specifically the greater New Orleans area and the Florida Keys is the two areas of greatest concern for that loss of life. So people in the Florida Keys and elsewhere in the Florida peninsula need to listen very carefully to the advice of their local officials and start thinking about the preparations that they're going to have to make.

QUESTION: When you got the call at 1:00 a.m. this morning, when they woke you up at home to tell you the strength of the hurricane. What did you think? How did you react?

MAYFIELD: Well, we had actually been -- the question was about the telephone call I got during the night from Lake Sanabwa (ph), our hurricane forecasters on duty. And I get a call quite often during the night if we have a special advisory or, you know, something that's not forecast occurs. We'd been talking about the possibility for rapid intensification for a couple of days in our discussions that go out with the forecast packages, and we really weren't surprised. But the bottom really did drop out during the night, and you know, it became a -- you know, it went from really a tropical storm to a cat- five hurricane in a very short period of time. Thank goodness that did not happen as it was making landfall.

So at least this gives us -- this certainly will get everyone's attention, the fact that it's a category five. It may very well weaken some as it gets in the Gulf of Mexico, but even a category two, three or four hurricane can cause tremendous damage and loss of life, if we're not careful.

QUESTION: Could you tell us what the difference would be for the impact residents would experience (INAUDIBLE)?

MAYFIELD: OK, the question was the impact on the East Coast versus the West Coast. And the biggest concern with the storm surge and the wave action will be on the Gulf Coast and in the Florida Keys. For the East Coast, it will be the Florida peninsula. It will be primarily a wind event. It looks like now we will have rainfall. This is such a large hurricane that we're going to get a lot of rain. A little bit of good news there. It will start moving so fast across the state that it hopefully will not be like Hurricane Irene a few years back, but we're going to have to deal with all the hazards before this is all over.

Yes, ma'am?

QUESTION: (INAUDIBLE) from Channel 7.

Even though at this point you cannot predict where the system will make landfall, what should people throughout South Florida be doing right now? What should the preparations be we're making now?

MAYFIELD: OK, the question, what preparations should people be making now? And you know, we've gone through the drill so many times in the Florida Keys and South Florida that, you know, I think most people have the drill down, and the local officials have been very consistent in telling people to have that hurricane plan, and have, you know, their supplies on hand. Hopefully we've already got some left over from, you know, Katrina.

I am very concerned with the southwest Florida Coast. It's really -- you know, they had Charley, but Charley was a very, very small hurricane, and impacted an extremely small area. It was almost like a 10-mile wide tornado for all practical purposes. And because of that small size, they did not have much of a storm surge on the Gulf Coast.

I will assure that you if this one makes landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida, there will be a tremendous storm surge, and if it's a category four, we could have easily, 15 to 20 feet near and south of where the center crosses the coast, with up to even 25 feet up into the bays and the rivers. So you can compare that to Rita and Katrina, if that helps make the point here.

QUESTION: (INAUDIBLE) question, going back to the east/west kind of storm and the effects and the issues that people will face because of it, preparedness-wise. What (INAUDIBLE) do they need to do because of the difference of the storm? And also, another question, how it will affect possibly (INAUDIBLE) Everglades?

MAYFIELD: I didn't hear the last part there about the animals and the Everglades?

QUESTION: Yes, coming from the west, how will it effect the Everglades and the specie that are there?

MAYFIELD: Yes, well, I'm not -- I'm probably not the best one to talk about the animals, the impact on the animals in the Everglades. But for the people, the response will be different, and I would not expect massive evacuations. I don't want to get ahead of local officials here. We did this media availability kind of spur of the moment here because we had so many requests. And I really don't want to get ahead of the local officials here. But I'm sure they'll be talking about people in mobile homes and special needs people.

But it's too early to start talking about, you know, large scale evacuation for the southeast Florida coast. Let's wait and let the local officials get in here on that. But if it stays on our -- close to our forecast track route now, I certainly would expect a wind impact over, you know, a large portion of the southern Florida peninsula, including Miami-Dade, Broward counties.

QUESTION: Hurricanes have a huge impact on the economy. Would you say it's too early for people in Florida to start canceling their plans, their business, their events, for say, Friday, Saturday, Sunday? Wait a little bit before making that decision?

MAYFIELD: The question about what do people do for events for the weekend -- my youngest daughter has her homecoming dance, and she's the homecoming princess this year and I told her I didn't think that dance was probably happen on Saturday. She was not very happy. But the truth is, this is, you know, a reality that we're going have to deal with, and, again, I think a very good decision has been made here in the Monroe County to get the non-residents out. So people are already starting to, you know, take some actions, even before the watches and warnings go up. And that's a good thing.

QUESTION: What did you say again about the storm surge coming to the west. How will that affect us?

MAYFIELD: Well, the -- you know, I know the Miami stations care deeply about the Florida Keys. You're all they've got down there in the Keys. So they're going to have a very significant storm surge. And because of the size of this hurricane, there will be tremendous wave action. And we've got a couple of wave models forecasting 35, 45, possibly up to 50-foot waves with this, you know, over the open ocean. Those will be breaking onto the coastline and in the Florida Keys.

So this -- I just don't see how the Florida Keys will get out of this without having a major impact. The biggest concern of the storm surge -- will all of this be the Gulf Coast? But we also have to deal with the rainfall and the winds and the tornadoes elsewhere, and that means, you know, here in Miami-Dade, Broward County, too.

QUESTION: Max, with it coming ashore and the projected speed, you expect this to move across the state real quickly? And with that case, I mean, how much water do you expect? This won't be as much rain effect as it will -- what do you expect, exactly?

MAYFIELD: Well, it's really -- you know, we're still a long, long way, you know, from landfall in the U.S. here, and it's really too soon to start getting specific on that. All I can tell you is that we should be planning for a major hurricane to be impacting the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula here this weekend. And that's going to result in, you know, a lot of people taking a lot of actions here.

I really don't want to get too specific on the amount of rainfall or the storm surge or the wind yet, but this is the lowest pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. And it's a very powerful Category 5 hurricane right now. It will eventually have a big impact on Florida.

QUESTION: Some of the rainfall predictions for western Cuba (INAUDIBLE) 15 inches or so?

MAYFIELD: And possibly up to -- I think we even bumped it up to some amounts to even 25 inches possible here. It's moving so slowly over there, and it really depends on how close that core gets to the western Cuba. You know, presumably closer to the Yucatan. It won't be as bad there. But they're having a big -- they will have a big impact in the resting ports in Cuba.

QUESTION: But 25 inches of rain in western Cuba -- there's no indication that we'll get the same amount? MAYFIELD: No. And that's a very good point, Jeff. The -- when it starts moving to the Northeast, it is really going to accelerate. And then as it gets into the Atlantic -- and, John, for the network folks here, this is a big, big concern. It's going to move very, very rapidly once it gets out of the Atlantic Ocean. And if it does start hitting closer to New England, that's how they get clobbered up there. They accelerated so rapidly, like the great 1938 hurricane that hit New England. It was moving so quickly, it just didn't have time to weaken very much. So This is going to be with us for at least five or six more days.

QUESTION: (INAUDIBLE) of Broward County. When will we feel the effects such as wind, and when should people start getting out there, putting their...

MAYFIELD: Well, we don't have, you know, watches up here yet. We probably put them up for the Keys, you know, tomorrow afternoon. Probably Friday morning, maybe Thursday night, we'll put up something for southeast Florida. And I really want to have a chance to talk to emergency officials and the emergency management here at Miami- Dade/Broward County before we start -- you know, this is -- the rules are very well defined here. It doesn't mean I don't care about this. But, you know, our job is to give the best forecast we possibly can, and I don't want to upstage the local officials when they tell people put their shutters up and all. But we'll be talking to them very soon.

QUESTION: Anything else (INAUDIBLE)?

MAYFIELD: No, I think that's it. I'm -- you know, this is still just October, and it's just, you know, so unusual to have this many major hurricanes. But it's a reality that we have to deal with. Thank you all very much for coming.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you, Max.

WHITFIELD: Wow, what a way to come to a close. Nearing the end of hurricane season for the Atlantic. Max Mayfield at the National Hurricane Center, giving very sobering point of view on what is likely to happen with this Hurricane Wilma.

(WEATHER REPORT)

WHITFIELD: Well, you remember that dam in Taunton, Massachusetts. We'll have an update on its situation and why it is still so volatile.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: Live pictures right now of the Whittenton Pond Dam in Taunton, Massachusetts, where reportedly the water levels behind that dam have dropped, but still several feet above normal. Now if this wooden dam is any compromised, and that has been the big concern, that a six-foot wall of water may come crashing down on the city of Taunton, Massachusetts, which is a community usually of about 50,000 people, but a number of those folks, about 2,000 of those people in that area, in Taunton, have been evacuated and are not being allowed to return to their homes because of the volatility of this dam.

Now just moments ago, the mayor of Taunton, Massachusetts, Robert Nunes, spoke about this very issue.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MYR. ROBERT NUNES, TAUNTON, MASSACHUSETTS: It's still in a state of emergency, and will remain in effect until early next week.

We just received a briefing from the National Weather Service. The good news, dry weather until Saturday. The bad news, significant rain on Sunday into Monday.

The condition of the dam at Whittenton Mills remains stable. Water levels are receding at Lake Sabathia (ph) and at the Whittenton Mills Dam.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WHITFIELD: Of course, we'll keep you posted on things there in Taunton, Massachusetts as folks keep an eye on the dam, hoping against hope that that wooden dam, in any way, does not break.

All right, we'll have a look at Wall Street and some of the days numbers when we come right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(MARKET REPORT)

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com