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American Morning

Hurricane Wilma To Hit Yucatan Peninsula; Florida Prepared For Hurricane Wilma; Status Of The American Red Cross

Aired October 21, 2005 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: You know, they had to do they do play groups and it's stressful. It's (INAUDIBLE) more stressful for me.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And they're all taking notes. Yes.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: I don't know. Home schooling.

MILES O'BRIEN: When they say - when they ask you if you were a tree, what kind of tree would you be, what do you say?

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: I say a mighty oak.

MILES O'BRIEN: Mighty oak. Excellent.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: But you kind of do every time you get asked . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: Mighty oak.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: I is that the right answer? Do you like me now? Can we come to your school?

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I'm sure she did fine.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Home schooling. Home schooling.

MILES O'BRIEN: Yes, home schooling.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: You know our big story today . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: You've got a lot of time for that, by the way.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Yes. Our big story, and actually not a lot of time, is Hurricane Wilma, which is approaching they call it about (ph) a day because, of course, some of those predictions about exactly how when landfall was going to be had slowed down a little bit. Let's get right to Ed Rappaport. He's the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

You've been mapping the hurricane. Give us a sense, basically, when's landfall going to be here in the U.S. and what do you think it's going to hit like?

ED RAPPAPORT, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: That's down the road still several days. Our biggest concern is for the Yucatan Peninsula and the center is now just 50 miles off shore. And a lot of people are familiar with Cozumel and the Cancun area. The center is going to come up very close to that area and spend perhaps 24 hours over the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Very much of a problem for that area both in terms of the wind and the storm surge. And there will be heavy rain.

The amount of time that it spends over the Yucatan Peninsula is going to be critical down the road for perhaps Florida and the adjacent areas because there will be some weakening. The longer it spends over land, the weaker it will gets before it turns northeastward and moves toward the southeastern United States.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: So until you know what happens to the Yucatan, you really can't make a solid prediction. Is this sort of on the bell curve of predictions way out of the realm of being able to call it at this point?

RAPPAPORT: It is. And we really haven't reached the moment of truth but we've probably come to the 24 hours of truth. I think a day from now, about 24 hours from now, we'll know how much time it's going to be spending over the Yucatan, how much it's weakened and we'll have a better feeling for when there will be an impact on Florida and how much of an impact it will be.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: You know, when I look at this picture over your shoulder, the eye just looks giant. What are the implications of that?

RAPPAPORT: The implications are that there's a large area of hurricane force winds that extend quite a ways from the center and, in fact, there are likely hurricane force winds on the coast of Mexico now. We've seen some observations approaching that. Of course, in between the scattered observation points, it's likely we're seeing hurricane force winds now near or over Cozumel and be spreading to Cancun soon.

The problem for those folks is the very slow motion means a very protracted impact there. At least a day's worth of tropical storm and hurricane conditions and maybe six to 12 hours of really severe conditions.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: I know Jacqui Jeras, who's helping us out this morning at the Weather Center at CNN had a question for you as well.

And, Jacqui.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: A couple of quick questions, Ed. First of all, it looks like the storm is continuing to intensifying right now. Are we at a five here yet?

RAPPAPORT: It doesn't look that way. The last hour or so, the western part of the eye wall, you can see perhaps has resumed a little bit, has eroded just a bit. So I think we've got a category four hurricane at this point. The next aircraft will be out there in a few hours and will confirm that. Either way, that's going to be a tremendous impact on the Yucatan Peninsula. JERAS: Now the last couple of days, the computer models, initially with this storm, were so in uniform. It was incredible how much confidence we had initially in the forecast track. And they've really changed a lot and they're all over the place. Why have things changed so much with this storm?

RAPPAPORT: The hurricanes have sort of a balance point where there are a variety of factors and atmospheric factors that are going to influence the motion of the storm. And at this time, they about in balance. And depending on how you formulate that in the computer model, you can come up with one solution or the other. In this particular case, those couple of solutions can be very different with a storm that either comes up over the Yucatan and stalls for a day or two, or if it just gets caught and nudged just a bit to the east by the westerly winds that are coming through the Gulf, it will get picked up and accelerated off to the northeast.

So we have two different possibilities. The problem is that they're very different in terms of their impacts. And at this stage we still don't know precisely what's going to happen. Looks like about a day from now we'll know whether it's the stall or whether the acceleration to the northeast is going to occur.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: All right. Well, we'll keep watching it. Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Thanks for talking with us as always.

RAPPAPORT: Thank you.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, the red line on Ed Rappaport's map tells the story. Wilma's first stop in the U.S. could be the Florida Keys, could be a little bit farther north. Nevertheless, these are places where people are watching and doing a little bit of worrying this morning. Kareen Wynter is in downtown Key West.

And, Kareen, how are people doing there? Are they getting out of town?

KAREEN WYNTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Miles, good morning to you.

Many people have evacuated in light of the warnings regarding Wilma. But the storm has been wavering so much. I'll get to that in a bit.

You can see some of the boarded up businesses behind me. That's just one indication, Miles, along this very popular downtown Duvall Street here in Key West that some people have been taking this storm seriously. But I can tell you, that concern has turned to anger, to frustration. Just by speaking to the mayor spokesperson earlier this morning, he says many people are quite upset that they boarded up prematurely, so to speak. And so they're losing business or losing dollars. The city itself is also losing about $2 million a day in lost revenue from tourism.

But many people have also been deciding to evacuate their families. We want to bring in some video shot yesterday. There were buses set up all across the city taking people, so to speak, to higher ground, to a shelter set up in Miami. And so some families yesterday I spoke with said, you know, we may be jumping the gun here but we just don't want to be stuck. We don't want to see what happened in Katrina happen here to us.

So the frustration will continue definitely today as people learn that those evacuations, and mandatory evacuations, Miles, that were originally set for Friday, for today at noon, have now been postponed to Saturday. And we're hearing from the city that that date could be changed to Sunday depending on, again, this wavering path of Wilma.

Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN: Kareen Wynter in Key West, Florida. The place they call the conquer republic.

Now a lot of people watching Kareen just a few moments ago might say why why on earth would a street cleaner come by when a hurricane is coming through? And, Kareen, I think the answer is, they want to get the debris out of the way. They're trying to batten the hatches down, right?

WYNTER: Absolutely they are. It is still (INAUDIBLE), it's quiet, of course, in the early morning hours. But, Miles, we were out here very late into the evening yesterday and we were surprised. It's hard to believe that a major hurricane is potentially days away. There were people going in and out of restaurants, bars. It was just really another night here. So there is a lot of debris from just all the partying yesterday.

MILES O'BRIEN: Ah, there you go. So get that debris off the street with Wilma coming.

Kareen Wynter, you stay safe. Thank you.

Let's talk about, boy, the Red Cross. Thank you, sir, I'll have another. Marty Evans is the president and CEO of the Red Cross. And it seems like every time we come here, your organization is being tested in new ways. Well, meet Wilma.

How are things right now? You we'll talk about some specifics in a moment. But broad brush here, it's been a very difficult time.

MARTY EVANS, PRESIDENT, AMERICAN RED CROSS: It has been our most challenging summer hurricane season in the entire history of the American Red Cross, 125 years, and certainly the largest disaster this nation has ever experienced.

MILES O'BRIEN: So give us some specifics. Financial health right now. How much money do you have on hand? What's your, you know, war chest, if you will? EVANS: Well, the Hurricane Katrina/Rita operations are going to cost about $2.2 billion. We've raised about $1.3 billion. So we're still working very, very hard to encourage the public to make donations. As we prepare for Wilma, we're asking the public again to make a contribution. The Red Cross is only as strong as the support that we get from the American public, so it's a challenging time.

MILES O'BRIEN: So the Red Cross does deficit spending or everybody just pitches in on their credit cards and off you go?

EVANS: Well, we borrow money and then raise the money to pay it back. So that's what we're doing right now. Because we can do not have the option of not being there when people need us.

MILES O'BRIEN: A $900 million shortfall at this point is what you have?

EVANS: At this point. But we know that there are customer donation programs, employee donation programs that are in progress. So we're looking right now at about maybe $400 million actual shortfall.

MILES O'BRIEN: All right. Well, let's talk about a couple of things that have come down the pike. And, you know, I want to be honest with viewers. This is unprecedented stuff.

EVANS: That's right.

MILES O'BRIEN: But nevertheless, you've been unable to count the number of people in hotel rooms. You thought there were 600,000. Turns out there were 200,000.

EVANS: No. Actually, we were given cumulative numbers, how many different people had gone through as opposed to the number of people in the hotel (INAUDIBLE).

MILES O'BRIEN: So there wasn't a problem then?

EVANS: No. It was just a different interpretation of the numbers. The important thing is that we didn't pay for any extra hotel rooms and the good news is . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: You didn't?

EVANS: We did not.

MILES O'BRIEN: OK.

EVANS: And, of course, that's a program that we're administering for FEMA. So it is not part of our calculations of our overall cost.

The other important thing is that by readjusting the number down for the actual people in the hotel rooms, it, frankly, lessens the real challenge which is finding housing for people.

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, we need to get them out of the hotel rooms. That's an expensive way to house people.

EVANS: No. At some point. But the important thing is that they're out of shelters, they're out of mass shelters. Those are temporary, very short-term emergency relief situations.

MILES O'BRIEN: Yes. Of course, you don't want to be in a hotel too long either. That can get a little the nerves can get a little frayed with the kids. Soledad ran into something at one of those shelters, which I want to run by you. The problem that she ran into is that the databases within the Red Cross weren't talking very well. The Louisiana Red Cross has one database and Mississippi has another and they don't interface very well. Have you worked on this problem? Have you rectified it? Because a lot of what makes you efficient and good when you're being tested is knowing the picture clearly, right?

EVANS: Right. And, you know, this has been an unprecedented time for us. We have been inventing whole new business processes literally on the run. And, you know, in business processes usually takes three, four, five months. We're trying to do it in a week. And one of the most important processes we've been able to implement is matching family members and that was up when running where we actually queried all of the different databases that had sprung up with missing family members. We implemented that in about eight, nine days.

MILES O'BRIEN: So are they talking now?

EVANS: Yes.

MILES O'BRIEN: Because it really seems like, you know, just a couple of geeks in a room and you can get them altogether and all of a sudden the databases work, right?

EVANS: It wasn't as simple as that when you're talking about massive, nationwide databases.

MILES O'BRIEN: It never is.

I need you to tell me this, because people ask me this all the time. I think about this when I write the check. When I write a check to the Red Cross, how much of it you have a big salary. I saw it on the web. It's $450,000. How much of the money I write on that check goes to your salary and all the other costs and how much of it actually goes to the people in need?

EVANS: Nine cents is the most administrative and general costs that come out of . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: Nine cents on the dollar?

EVANS: Nine cents on the dollar.

MILES O'BRIEN: So 91 percent of the money goes to people . . .

EVANS: But I will tell you that with Katrina and Rita, those contributions, we expect that the overall administrative and general expenses, and those are things like insurance and all of those kind of support costs, will be in the range of four, five, six cents out of a dollar. So it's very, very low. We are one of the top-rated charities with respect to how much money goes into direct supporting services for our victims and clients.

MILES O'BRIEN: Yes, you can check it on the web, you get, what, three, four stars? Always at the top of the list.

EVANS: Four stars.

MILES O'BRIEN: Four stars. Want to make sure that's right.

EVANS: Four stars, the best.

MILES O'BRIEN: Always at the top of the list.

EVANS: That's right.

MILES O'BRIEN: And clearly a time of need for the Red Cross and for the nation.

Marty Evans, thanks for dropping by. She is the president and CEO of the American Red Cross.

Carol.

COSTELLO: Thank you, Miles.

Good morning to you.

Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay is set to appear in a Texas court room today. DeLay turned himself in Thursday on conspiracy and money laundering charges. Take a look at his mug shot. There is he all smiles and with his House of Representatives security pin pinned to his lapel. DeLay was also fingerprinted and released on $10,000 bond. We'll have coverage of his trial later on, on CNN. Actually, his initial appearance in court, I should say.

A death in connection to the trial of Saddam Hussein and his top aides. The lawyer for one of Hussein's co-defendants has been found dead. The lawyer's body was discovered earlier today, one day after he was kidnaped by gunmen in Baghdad. The killing comes despite extra protection for prosecutors in the trial.

The mother accused of throwing her three young sons into the San Francisco Bay is set to appear in court this morning. The body of one of the children was found Thursday. Two others are still missing. Lashaun Harris has been charged with murder and assault. Relatives say she has a history of mental health problems, including schizophrenia.

Gruesome details about the high-profile killing of a prominent lawyer's wife in California. A law enforcement official tells CNN, a 16-year-old boy used a piece of crown molding to beat the victim and then carved a symbol in her back. News of the teenager's arrest came as Daniel Horowitz was preparing to bury his wife Pamela Vitale. Investigators are still looking into the case to determine an exact motive.

The actions of the disaster agency FEMA in the wake of Hurricane Katrina being played out before Congress. The only FEMA worker in New Orleans when the storm hit told lawmakers on Thursday that he gave updated accounts about the crisis and notified the agency when the levees had broken. But stressed there was a failure by officials and the former FEMA director, Michael Brown, to understand just how serious it was.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARTY BAHAMONDE, REGIONAL DIRECTOR, FEMA: At approximately 11:00 a.m., the worst possible news came into the EOC. I stood there and listen to the first report of the levee break at the 17th Street Canal. I do not know who made the report but they were very specific about the location of the break and the size. And then they added, it was very bad.

I immediately called FEMA's front office to relay the news. Their reaction was shock and disbelief. As I passed on minute-by- minute information, I was always under the assumption that it would then be pass to do Undersecretary Brown and others. I do not know if this ever happened.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Thursday's hearing also made public an e-mail from one of Michael Brown's aides who was insisting on blocking out enough time for Brown to be able to sit down and eat dinner in Baton Rouge while thousands in New Orleans were ding on military rations. Kathleen Koch will have more on this in the next hour.

And feeling the pain of technology. Beware the Blackberry thumb. Using small gadget key pads like those on a Blackberry or a Trio can actually cause a stress injury to your thumb. Soledad, you look skeptical.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: I'm sorry.

MILES O'BRIEN: I'm a victim of this.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Does your thumb really hurt?

MILES O'BRIEN: No. I had tendinitis right in my wrist because, you know, it's attached to the thumb. The thumb bone attached to the wrist bone being (ph) the thing. And I couldn't I was pushing this button here and it just caused tremendous pain. Tremendous pain.

COSTELLO: See.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: What the doctors recommend now for that?

COSTELLO: They recommend using a pencil to . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: They said, stop using the darn thing.

COSTELLO: Well, no, no, use a pencil to press the button.

MILES O'BRIEN: No, no, not that.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: They recommend using a I mean, come on. Can you imagine?

MILES O'BRIEN: No. You know what I did? I started using my left finger and that was cumbersome.

COSTELLO: It's just like carpal tunnel syndrome. You believe in that.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Uh-huh. I don't know. My thumbs are fine. I use my Blackberry all the time.

COSTELLO: You just have better thumbs than Miles.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: That's right.

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, maybe I'm just pushing too hard, you know, stressed.

COSTELLO: Use a pencil.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Yes, use a pencil.

Thanks, Carol.

MILES O'BRIEN: A pencil and paper and a carrier pigeon. That would be easier. There you go.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: There you go. You see, that would solve everything.

MILES O'BRIEN: Way too much technology.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Thank you, Carol.

COSTELLO: Sure.

MILES O'BRIEN: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, oil prices may have hit a magic number. We'll tell you what it means for you. That's Andy's business and he'll be with us shortly.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Also ahead this morning, a different kind of television series following members of the Arkansas National Guard from their homes to war in Iraq and then home again. A look ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: "Off To War" is a different kind of documentary series. Two brothers, film makers, following members of the Arkansas National Guard through their tour of duty in Iraq. It also shows just how much the war weighs on the loved ones they leave behind. AMERICAN MORNING's Kelly Wallace has more. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I didn't realize how hard it was going to be, you being away and me being here by myself all the time either!

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): A couple struggling with the separation.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Be careful, Matt (ph)!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I will, mom. Quit crying.

WALLACE: A mom worrying about her 19-year-old son.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And I'm sorry for what happened. That was one of the reasons you went back in the military was because of me.

WALLACE: And a son coping with the guilty after his father is severely wounded in the war. Two brothers from Arkansas decided to follow a national guard unit from the small town of Clarksville, but they didn't just focus on the soldiers, they also followed their families at the same time during the 18-month deployment to Iraq.

BRENT RENAUD, PRODUCER "OFF TO WAR": Being part-time soldier, these guys have civilian lives just like you and I do outside of the military. And we knew it was going to be an incredible ordeal for the families and the soldiers. And so right away I said, you know, we got to do this but we've got to it's got to be about the families too. We've got to show their sacrifice and their burden.

WALLACE: Did you feel that was something that wasn't getting covered really in terms of the cost of the war, what the families back here in the United States were going through?

BRENT RENAUD: I definitely do. And I think when people see soldiers on television, they basically just see the uniform. They think they're all the same.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's what it's all about right there. He was a good kid. You know, that's all he was, was a kid. And it's not it's not worth it. It's not worth it.

WALLACE: One of the men profiled, Sergeant First Class David Short, a police officer turned combat platoon leader, who lost two of his men within 72 hours of arriving in Iraq. He says that was hardest on his youngest soldiers.

SGT. DAVID SHORT, ARKANSAS NATIONAL GUARD: You will start seeing some changes in some of the younger guys, especially Matt and Tommy. The maturity level that you see at the first part of the show and as they progress, you start seeing a little more hardened, eyes are more open.

WALLACE: One of the men Short mentioned, Specialist Matt Hertline (ph), before his deployment.

MATT HERTLINE: I think it will be fun.

WALLACE: And during his time in Iraq.

HERTLINE: Just don't watch the news. We're all right. We're all good.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Everybody sends their love.

HERTLINE: Sorry it's been so long since I got to call. I'll try to call again within a few days.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's all right.

HERTLINE: Love you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All right. I love you.

HERTLINE: I love you, too.

WALLACE: Did you ever feel, I don't want to be rolling right now? I don't want to be capturing this moment? I want to step out of the room?

CRAIG RENAUD, PRODUCER, "OFF TO WAR": There was never a point where we felt like we should be rolling. Because the most difficult moments where it's the most uncomfortable is the times that you really need to get across to the viewer for them to really to understand what the families are going through.

WALLACE: And what the families could go through again. Because although these Arkansas National Guardsmen are home now, they know they could be called up for another mission to Iraq.

CRAIG RENAUD: Unless you have a loved one that's serving in Iraq, I don't think you really, truly comprehend what all these families are going through.

WALLACE: Kelly Wallace, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Remarkable story. You can watch "Off To War," on the Discovery Times channel Saturdays at 10:00 p.m. Eastern. It's airing through the end of November.

MILES O'BRIEN: I'm going to be watching that one.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Yes, definitely.

MILES O'BRIEN: That is a Tivo-able thing.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: I know what you mean.

MILES O'BRIEN: All right, still to come on the program, the after hours stock surge for Google has investors feeling giddy. What happens if you're Google giddy? SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: If you get Googled.

MILES O'BRIEN: You get Googled. There you go, right back to Google. Andy Serwer "Minding Your Business" next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody.

You're looking at the loop right there. We are watching Hurricane Wilma this morning. It's a massive storm and it's headed toward Florida. The first in its sights, though, is the Yucatan Peninsula. And they are predicting, in fact, that it could hit there sometime about noon. We are following Wilma and also the preparations in advance of Wilma. We're going to bring you a live update right at the top of the hour.

Business news now, though. And we are talking about Google. Again, heading up.

We should have bought more of that.

ANDY SERWER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We should of bought some of it.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: We should have bought some of that.

SERWER: Some of it. I don't know about you, I got none of it.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Any of it.

SERWER: Yes. I mean, Google envy. There is no stop in sight of a friend who keeps on e-mailing me and telling me about the price. It's a rocket ship.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: What great friend. Thanks.

SERWER: And, yes, thanks a lot.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Anyway, yesterday, 700 percent increase in earnings. Just staggering. This company is for real, there's no question about it. The stock is poised to open up $20 at $330. Remember, it went public at $84 in August of last year.

Now, listen to this, profits, $381 million. How big is that? Well, for instance, "The New York Times" "The New York Times" has been around a long time, only made $23 million in the same quarter. More than 10 times bigger in terms of profits right now. The overall stock market value of the company, $84 billion compared to "The New York Times" $4 billion. I mean, this is a really large media company now. There is no question about that anymore.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: What kind of impact is that having on the market?

SERWER: Well, it's having a nice impact on the trading today, at least in terms of futures. Futures are up briskly, particularly tech stocks. Yesterday stocks were down. The Dow was down 133 points. You can see here. This is after the surge on Wednesday, so we're going back and forth here. We are looking at a higher open.

Another thing propelling futures this morning, Soledad, oil prices lower. In fact, we broke $60, which is a great thing. You can see here, we were up at $70 before. Now we're at $59.50. A couple things going. Supplies of crude oil higher and demand for oil is down because of those high prices. So it's Econ 101, supply up, demand down, air go, prices are falling.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Air go, better for us.

SERWER: Yes, exactly.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Like to hear that for a change.

Andy Serwer, minding our business this morning. Thanks.

SERWER: Thank you.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: A short break. We're back in just a moment. We continue to watch Hurricane Wilma as she approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida, too. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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