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CNN Live Sunday

Tracking the Path of Hurricane Wilma

Aired October 23, 2005 - 20:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. JEB BUSH, FLORIDA: I cannot emphasize enough to the folks that live in the Florida keys, a hurricane is coming, and a hurricane's a hurricane.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: CNN is your hurricane headquarters. Our extensive coverage on the path of Hurricane Wilma begins right now.

Welcome back. I'm Carol Lin at the CNN Center in Atlanta.

Rob?

ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: And I'm Rob Marciano on the beach in Fort Myers, Florida, in that cone where we could see Wilma around 12 hours from now. We're certainly waiting for that to happen.

So far, Carol, it's a pretty nice night. But this storm is speeding up, and it will be going bad here in a hurry, certainly after midnight. (INAUDIBLE).

LIN: It really devolves that quickly.

MARCIANO: Oh, absolutely. This thing has picked up speed. It's now moving at 15 miles an hour. And actually the latest out of the CNN Weather Center, Chad Myers gave me a call, and said the maximum sustained winds now up to 110 miles an hour. So it is just 1 mile an hour away from being a category 3, back to major hurricane status. Hopefully that doesn't happen. But it is intensifying, getting better organized, as it rockets towards the southwest Florida coastline.

LIN: Yes, this is a fast-moving hurricane. Rob, if anybody wants to know the power of Hurricane Wilma, all they have to do is look at what it did in Mexico.

The worst is over in the Yucatan, but it is coming very fast and furious for Florida.

Now, Mexican officials are blaming four people's deaths on the hurricane, which lingered over Cozumel and Cancun for more than two days. More than 10,000 American vacationers are stranded right now.

As expected, Wilma picked up speed as it entered the Gulf of Mexico, and it could get stronger. It already is, right now. Right now, it's a strong category 2, but as Rob said, it's just a step away from being a category 3 storm, with top winds, right now, of 110 miles per hour, gusts as high as 125.

Tropical storm-force winds are expected in the keys any time now. Full-on landfall, somewhere on Florida's southwest coast, is expected at dawn.

Now, 160,000 Floridians are under evacuation orders, but most of those appear to be staying put. Hurricane warnings are in effect from Long Boat Key on Florida's west coast, around the keys to Titusville in the east.

MARCIANO: Back here in Fort Myers, on the beach at Fort Myers, Florida, as this storm continues to get better organized and head this way, as you may know, we've been reporting on mandatory evacuations, but fewer than half the folks have actually evacuated, maybe thinking that the storm is not going to come right to them.

But if it looks like it's right around the corner and headed their way, I suppose saying a couple of prayers wouldn't hurt.

Gary Tuchman is live for us tonight in Key West, Florida, where, Gary, I'm told you have a bit of a spiritual story.

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We do have a spiritual story to tell you, Rob.

But first, the factual story, and that is, the city fathers here in Key West are being told that we are one hour away from the sustained tropical-force winds, six hours away from the sustained hurricane-force winds. The rains have just started coming down again.

And what's absolutely astounding and amazing and something we never see in hurricanes, this road, Duval (ph) Street, which is the main road in downtown Key West, still packed with traffic, people still coming on bicycles, a guy on a skateboard just came by. And you know what the conditions are right now.

Three hours ago, we had huge thunderstorms, waterspouts coming through here. People are just not evacuating. And we thought, after Hurricane Katrina, we talked about it amongst ourselves, we're reporters, we're not preachers, but we thought that we would see lots of people evacuating hurricanes in the future.

And they did indeed during Rita. I was in Port Arthur, Texas, during Rita. We saw almost nobody in Port Arthur. But here in Key West, we're not about to tell people to evacuate, but the fact is, an estimated 80 percent of the 28,000 people who live in this city are still here, and they're going to stay here during this hurricane.

Now, you were talking about the spiritual part of our story, Rob. Well, Key West hasn't been directly hit by a major hurricane for 86 years, and there are many people who live here that believe the reason for that is divine intervention.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN (voice-over): A mandatory evacuation has been in place since Saturday, but at the St. Mary Star of the Sea Catholic Church in Key West, praying to God has trumped the orders of man. The church is mostly full.

Also busy, a shrine behind the church, a coral grotto built in 1922 by a nun who declared, As long as the grotto stands, Key West will never again experience the full brunt of a hurricane.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you, God for protecting us and continue to protect us from the storm. We love you very much.

TUCHMAN: Hundreds died in Key West after a direct hit three years before the grotto was built.

(on camera): There hasn't been a major hurricane that's hit Key West since then. You think the grotto has something to do with it?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh,a business. Absolutely, yes. I think every church should build a grotto, all over the world, and then we'd all be safe forever.

TUCHMAN (voice-over): The faith in Sister M. Lewis Gabriel's grotto was strong.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You ask anybody in town, and they'll say, There won't be a hurricane here. Go to the shrine.

TUCHMAN: Throughout the day, they came to light candles, praying for Key West to be protected.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's the most candles I've ever seen lit at one time in the grotto, and I come every Sunday.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN: Speak those candles are still lit, the parishioners are gone, hopefully in their homes right now, unless some of them are the people we've seen passing in the cars at the skateboards.

We do want to tell you, one of the most powerful hurricanes to ever hit the United States in recorded weather history was the Labor Day hurricane, 1935, that hit the keys 13 years after that grotto was built. But that hurricane hit the middle keys and the upper keys, not here in the city of Key West.

Rob, back to you.

MARCIANO: Gary, I can just see my mom shaking her head at home after going to church this morning, agreeing with that, with that, with that theory.

Thanks, Gary Tuchman, live for us in Key West, Florida. He's right about that 1935 storm was the worst storm, or the strongest storm that ever made landfall in the U.S., and that was a doozy across these central keys.

So let's work our way up the keys, and then up the west coast. A little bit farther south from us, in between me and Key West, is Marco Island.

And John King, our CNN correspondent, is there live tonight. What's the latest there, John?

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Rob, just in the last few minutes, the winds have picked up quite a bit. The rains are beginning. It's a moderate rain, but starting to swirl behind me. For the last time a hurricane hit directly here from the west was back in 1960, 45 years ago. Marco Island was a very small fishing village then. Now it is a resort community, pricey condominiums and million- dollar homes right along the Gulf. They are in peril tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KING (voice-over): The Sunday rush at Breakfast Plus Cafe, eggs over easy, home fries, steaming coffee, and the debate over whether Marco Island's mandatory evacuation order means you really need to go.

Denise Forbat (ph) lives 30 miles down the road in tiny Everglade City. All but a handful of people left town Saturday, she says. And Denise plans to move inland after one more shift.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's a big scare, but, you know, sometimes you got to listen to it and go. So by afternoon, I'll be gone.

KING: Going, it appears, for good reason.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Good morning. Cell phones off, please.

KING: At Marco Island's emergency operations center, word Wilma is aiming this way, likely to deliver winds in excess of 100 miles per hour and a tidal surge of seven to 10 feet.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All the modeling, everything indicates it's still staying on target with us. BOC indicates Marco Island as the direct hit as of right now.

KING: It is a town of expensive coastal condominiums and pricey yachts, far different now than in 1960, the last time a hurricane hit directly from the west.

The mandatory evacuation began Saturday. City manager Bill Moss says 90 percent of the 20,000 people who were on the island have left.

BILL MOSS, MARCO ISLAND CITY MANAGER: There still are too many people on the island. We're an island, we're surrounded by water. There's going to be a lot of water, likely the total disruptions of all utilities.

KING: Nudging holdouts who want to stay is the most urgent mission.

Detective Linda Guerrero's (ph) patrols focus on Latino neighborhoods.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (speaks in Spanish) KING: At Marco Island Catholic Church, the pews, mostly empty, the pastor's homily mixing the Scripture and storm preparedness.

FATHER TIM NAVIN, MARCO ISLAND CATHOLIC CHURCH: We're all supposed to be someplace other than Marco Island as of 8:00 this morning. So we should be on the other side of the border. If you want to get to the other side of the border, and you don't have transportation, there are buses that are leaving from the post office up until noontime.

KING: Most everyone on Marco Island is gone or going, most businesses closed. It is tradition that storm humor goes hand in hand with storm preparedness, a hurricane named Wilma no exception.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: Now, again, they expect this to be a cat 2 hurricane when it hits, although they now say it could be a possibility it will escalate to a cat 3. A category 2, they think the storm surge will be seven feet, perhaps as high as nine feet. High tides in the morning, when it is expected to hit between 4:00 and 8:00 a.m., local officials say they are being told, if it is a category 3, they say that storm surge could go as high as 14 to 16 feet.

We're just 100 yards or so from the beach here, 14- to 16-foot storm surge would come right about to our position. Rob, they say about 90 percent of the people have evacuated from this island. There are some hardy people holding on. We're going to visit a few of them in just a few minutes.

One of the questions, of course, why, oh, why would you wait this out?

MARCIANO: Well, that's good news, John, that 90 percent have evacuated. And if that thing turns into a cat 3, you may want to look for a fallback plan, if that water starts to rise. So be careful out there.

John King for us, live tonight in Marco Island, Florida.

Carol, that's the latest from the keys, from Marco Island here in Fort Myers Beach, it still continues to be a beautiful night, just a bit of a breeze. So we haven't seen a feeder band or squall line go through in about an hour and a half, so, so far, so good. I'm just hoping we can say that about 12 hours from now.

Back to you.

LIN: All right. Can't really say that for St. Petersburg right now. I want to show folks some pictures. We're seeing some lightning out there in St. Petersburg over a pier. And we've been talking about how even though this hurricane is not going to be making landfall, the eye of the storm is not going to be making landfall until sometime closer to sunrise, already, just in the next hour, we're going to be seeing tropical storm-force winds, winds blowing in excess of 100 miles per hour, and severe weather already developing off the coast of Florida.

Rob, it looks like that we're going to be seeing the beginnings of a serious situation just in the next hour or so.

MARCIANO: All right, it seems that's, that could easily be the case, Carol. You know, this storm, even though it's several hundred miles away, the feeder bands, spiral bands are reaching the coastline. We've already seen some heavy rains associated somewhat with Wilma flooding Broward County earlier in the week.

So not even here yet, and causing problems already.

So let's talk a little bit more in depth about this. Let's bring in the expert, the man who runs the National Hurricane Center. He's been doing a great job for us all season long. And tonight, he may very well be up late.

Max, good evening again.

Latest I heard from the CNN Weather Center was that you -- the winds have increased to 110 miles an hour. Give us a little more detail on that.

MAX MAYFIELD, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Rob, they have. We've got an Air Force hurricane (INAUDIBLE) plane out there right now, doing a great job for us. And the winds are definitely coming up, and even on the satellite presentation here, you can it looks like it's the storm (INAUDIBLE) hurricane now. And then a few hours ago, we certainly hope that doesn't, that turn doesn't continue.

We're getting some strong wind reports in. We just had a report from Dry Tortugas in this outer rain band right there, the gust to 55 miles per hour. Way down here in Havana, about an hour ago, we had a gust to 85 miles per hour. So there's some very strong winds, well out away from the eye of the hurricane.

MARCIANO: Let's talk a little bit about the difference between the left side of the hurricane and the right side, because I suspect there's going to be a huge difference this go-around, if indeed this storm accelerates to 20 or 25 miles an hour as it makes landfall. Explain to our viewers why that may be the case.

MAYFIELD: Yes, and very good point there, Rob. As it gets close to the Florida peninsula tomorrow morning, it's just going to take off like a rocket and go racing out to the northeast over the Atlantic. And we're going to see some real changes in the wind field here. And we don't -- I mean, we have enough trouble forecasting the track intensity. But the -- you know, how far out the hurricane-force winds and the storm-force winds go, there's certainly some uncertainty there.

But the strongest winds will be on the right side of the track, from the south side. So, you know, we think that the most likely area for hurricane-force winds will be here in the southern portion of the peninsula, and, of course, over the Florida keys, much stronger on the south side than on the north side of the track. MARCIANO: Well, with those stronger winds, I suspect that's where the strongest storm surge will be, Florida Bay, very shallow area of the Gulf of Mexico. What kind of surge are we looking at in those areas?

MAYFIELD: Well, very significant. I know you just had that report from Naples, and it -- you know, the landfall's not the whole story here. But it is an important part. If it comes in here somewhere in the vicinity of Marco Island, and if (INAUDIBLE) north and south of there, but the 9 to 17 feet of storm surge will be nearer to the south of that.

Little community called Chocolasty (ph), Everglade City, Goodman, and all the way down here near Flamingo on the southwest tip of the peninsula, those areas are really going to get clobbered. If the track is just a little bit more to the north, that would include Naples and Marco Island.

MARCIANO: Not a very populated area of the state, but those who do live there, I suspect that you'd strongly recommend that they leave, if they're anywhere near the coast, and leave now.

MAYFIELD: Absolutely. And the emergency management director for Collier (ph) County, Dan Summers (ph), has really been doing a great job over there. He's had people moving starting back on Thursday.

MARCIANO: All right. Thanks again for your advice and your insights. Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. We'll check back in with you a little bit later. Hopefully you'll stay up with us. Thanks, Max.

MAYFIELD: Thank you, Rob. I'll be here.

MARCIANO: OK.

Carol, that's the latest from the National Hurricane Center. Boy, they got some good graphics there too, going to put us out of business pretty soon if they keep that up. But definitely some good insight, a big storm surge in that area.

You know, it's -- I'll be curious what it's going to do, not only to structures, but, you know, there's a lot of wildlife down there in the Everglades, and I'm sure there's going to be some effect on the wildlife. So there's going to be many aspects to this story going forward even after the storm passes through.

LIN: Yes, because...

MARCIANO: Back to you.

LIN: ... hey, Rob, is it still forecasted to be, to hit as a category 3? Because a lot of those buildings in Naples were only built to category 1, to withstand a category 1. So if it does hit...

MARCIANO: All right, yes...

LIN: ... (INAUDIBLE) serious.

MARCIANO: It could be a 3. You know, as this thing accelerates off to the north and east, those same winds that are steering it this way also limit its intensification to some degree. But you got a catch-22 (INAUDIBLE) happening because the water's so warm that it's trying to intensify, but the same steering currents are knocking it down a little bit.

So hopefully, it doesn't come on as a cat 3. Right now, it's very close to being cat 3 status. And as you mentioned, a lot of those homes down there are not built to code, and there could be some serious damage because of that.

LIN: All right. Well...

MARCIANO: Back to you.

LIN: ... if Mexico's a preview Rob, boy, it was a serious situation there when Hurricane Wilma just sat on the Yucatan Peninsula for two days.

At last report, people in the hard-hit resort area of Cancun were wading through the streets looking for food, as Mexican troops arrived at the scene to try to help out.

Now, the State Department tells CNN about 10,000 U.S. tourists were in the region hit by Wilma. The current plan is to take them by bus farther inland, as U.S. officials work with the airlines to try to get them out. The State Department says no American citizens were seriously hurt.

CNN's Susan Candiotti is in Cancun, and she sent us this report just a short time ago.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SUSAN CANDIOTTI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The Mexican government ordered that thousands and thousands of people who had been staying at hotels along the white, sandy beaches of Cancun get out of there before the storm hit, and many of them were brought to this school. It's a complex of many buildings, but some of them didn't make out very well during the storm.

That building, in particular, lost its roof. However, a lot of the hotel staff also came out here, along with the hotel guests, to try to cook for them, to try to give them water and take care of them as best they can.

But the conditions, of course, not entirely perfect.

You want to tell me what it's been like for you?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's been very comforting, really, because the people here have taken really good care of us. They're doing all they can do. They're providing us with food, water, just excellent for conditions in the situation, I think. CANDIOTTI: And can you tell me, ma'am, what it was like when the storm hit? Describe it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Very frightening. You couldn't see outside. You could hear the wind blowing, could hear things hitting the building. But basically, we were pretty safe inside.

CANDIOTTI: All right. Let's walk up a little farther here and show you they've got some buses over here, where people were not only brought here but they've been trying to bring in extra water, extra food, to make sure that they can try to take care of these guests as best as is possible.

Where are you folks from over here?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: St. Louis, Missouri.

CANDIOTTI: St. Louis.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.

CANDIOTTI: What was it like to ride through the storm?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It was terrible. It was very frightening. It just continued, just constantly. It was like no -- I mean, for, like, seven and eight hours, just the pounding and the wind. And it was very terrifying, very frightening.

CANDIOTTI: And, of course, no one has any idea, right, ma'am, when you're going to get out?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (INAUDIBLE), we don't know anything. As far as we know, the airports are all down. There's no communication, and nobody's got any cells going. And basically, we're just on a waiting game.

CANDIOTTI: Here, you can see there is a table with soft drinks, with fruit drinks, with some kind of provisions to try to keep things as normal as is possible, to keep people hydrated. And, of course, sleeping quarters, well, this is a school, so people are sleeping on desks, people are sleeping on the floor.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE) on chairs, that was -- we were (INAUDIBLE) on chairs.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're just happy that we're alive, and that, you know, we didn't, you know, get killed, and we're happy to be alive.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We haven't taken showers since Thursday, about four days.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But these folks have been absolutely fantastic. Couldn't have done it without them.

CANDIOTTI: Well, certainly understandable that no one's been able to take a bath in four days, because, of course, as the hurricane came through, power shut down, obviously, water. There isn't any to be had for bathing.

But it usually takes three days. This is what happens. And people did have to evacuate the hotels that are located on the beach. Those are uninhabitable at this time. So, of course, some of the remaining questions, when will the airport be able to open so some of these tourists can get out? How will residents do? There's a lot of cleanup to be done. But people here say there is hope, and it will happen, and they do plan on bringing Cancun back eventually.

Susan Candiotti, CNN, Cancun, Mexico.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Well, we told you all about the mandatory evacuations in Florida. Up next, I'm going to talk with one emergency management official about what they're doing to get people out of harm's way.

And we all remember the nursing home tragedies around New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. We're going to show you the lengths one Florida home is doing, going to protect its residents.

Plus, a live report from Naples. It's on the southwest Florida coast, and may be one of the first places to feel the brunt of this storm.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: At the top of the news, in the United States, Florida is waiting for Hurricane Wilma. Key West is right in its path, and its residents have been told to get out of town.

The director of emergency management for the area now joins me on the telephone.

Welcome to you, Irene Toner.

IRENE TONER, DIRECTOR OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, MONROE COUNTY, FLORIDA (on phone): Thank you.

LIN: Irene, the last I saw, something like one, only one in five people in the keys evacuated. You had a mandatory evacuation order. And now the state emergency management agency tells me that these people are taking their own chances, because rescue workers will not be able to get to them.

Is there anything you can do to get these people to leave?

TONER: Unfortunately, there's nothing we can do. We did -- you know, we put out the notification about voluntary evacuation, oh, yesterday morning. We had mandatory. We also had law enforcement and (INAUDIBLE) driving through the neighborhoods and (INAUDIBLE) people to leave. But unfortunately, you cannot make them, you know, make them go. It's not, they could (INAUDIBLE) take them off, that is not the case. So we are very discouraged with the low numbers of people that have evacuated.

LIN: All right. So what -- have you -- what has your agency done to prepare for the fact that a lot of these people are going to be riding out hurricane-force winds?

TONER: Well, one of -- you know, the major concern is -- was when we're not going to have here, which is really the power outages. The roads will not be passable. So for now, we just (INAUDIBLE) refuge of last resort, those are facilities for those that, you know, mainly for the people in mobile homes that should go and shelter in those structures.

But we don't have anything, we don't have law enforcement, we don't have EMS. The hospitals are closed. So it's really just a last, you know, resort (INAUDIBLE) refuge of last resort.

We are very concerned about all of those that stay behind, because, you know, we will have to get assistance to them as soon as possible. But (INAUDIBLE) time, and the damages that we're going to suffer down here.

LIN: Right. Irene, I've got Chad Myers, who's our severe weather expert, standing by at the CNN Weather Center.

Chad?

CHAD MYERS, CNN SEVERE WEATHER EXPERT: And good evening.

We just saw a picture of Key West, and people were literally still partying in the streets, riding their bicycles around. And I just checked, the latest wind gust in Key West was 44 miles per hour. So literally, it's too late. It's time to hunker down and not try to get out. No way you could put up a plywood sheet at that mile per hour wind either.

At what point do you shut down the Seven Mile Bridge, or will you, for people trying to get out of the lower keys?

TONER: We're shutting down the roads at 40 miles per hour. That's also when the emergency responders take their vehicles off the roads, which the fire (INAUDIBLE) and the law enforcement.

So when we get 40 miles per hour sustained, then no one should be on the road.

MYERS: There's going to be a lot of wind out of the south, and the storm surge, oceanside, may be five to eight feet. What islands, what keys in general are you most concerned about for flooding, for overwash? Which ones are the lowest ones? Is it Marathon Key, or is it part of the lower keys, down to Big Pine Key? Which one's the, which one's the most vulnerable?

TONER: Well, actually we do (INAUDIBLE) throughout the keys, that, you know, in simple language, get flooded almost immediately. Of course, the city of Key West has, like, (INAUDIBLE) Roosevelt Boulevard (INAUDIBLE) familiar with Key West, it's already experienced those conditions.

We have mile marker 74 1/2, which is in Allamorada (ph), which -- where is already (INAUDIBLE) the road.

MYERS: Oh, is that right?

TONER: And, of course, (INAUDIBLE) 18 mile (INAUDIBLE) and (INAUDIBLE). And those (INAUDIBLE) we just went into this storm, and we're going to be in it for the next 18 hours. Those conditions are already here. So, you know, it's a really tough situation for us down here.

LIN: All right. Irene, Irene Toner, it's going to be a busy night for you. She's the director of the emergency management for Monroe County, which includes the keys, which are going to be hit pretty hard.

Chad, what's Hurricane Wilma doing right now? Because already you're saying 44 miles per hour winds, or sustained winds, or gusts?

MYERS: Gusts, that's a gust.

LIN: Gusts.

MYERS: The sustained winds were 33. I got married in Key West. I mean, I know, I know the lower keys. I've been to the No Name Pub and every place else that you could possibly think of down there. And I hope these people really took it more seriously than what we're reporting, I hope (INAUDIBLE)...

LIN: It sure didn't look like it.

MYERS: Sure didn't...

LIN: I mean, bike riding. I mean, just, maybe 20 minutes ago, bike riding down the street, people dancing.

MYERS: What part of one in five does mandatory evacuation come to? You know (INAUDIBLE)...

LIN: They're not worried. Well, it's been -- how long has it been since the keys were hit?

MYERS: Well, I mean, really, the big smash was Donna, and very few people remember that. The (INAUDIBLE) still do, the people that are...

LIN: Back in the '50s.

MYERS: ... from back in 1960. But they get glancing blows all the time. And what she was talking about, mile marker 78, if the water's already coming up and over the road, clearly there's no way out now. There's no way to move north of there. Card Sound (ph) Road, she said, had water over the top of it, the 18-mile stretch, water over the top of it.

And that's just from the winds blowing water now over and over and over. And that's basically the precursor to what is storm surge.

We're also seeing another thing here, Carol, a tornado watch in effect, and tornado warnings in a few of the counties up here as well. These are quick-moving storms. They are going to be with us all night long.

Talking about a quick-moving storm, the wind now, up to 110 with this storm. And I want to show you on our other map, our other source over here, what's going to happen when that wind actually picks up and starts blowing water into the Florida Bay area here.

Naples, Marco Island, right here, these areas here may be just to the north of the eye if it passes right over it like that. If the storm takes a little bit of a turn farther to the north, the storm surge is going to be right in here, right into Naples and Marco Island.

Now, this is the forecast at this point, for what we see. Naples, Marco Island, storm surge. This is a wildlife refuge area here. This would be the best-case scenario. But if you notice this number, this is actually from the Hurricane Center, from NOAA, that number right there that I just wrote over, 14.2 feet is the expected storm surge with this storm as it comes on shore there.

So Carol, that's going to be dangerous.

LIN: Yes. It sure looks like it. Chad, thank you so much.

Rob Marciano...

MARCIANO: Hey, Chad, you still there?

MYERS: Yes, sir. Go ahead, Rob.

MARCIANO: (INAUDIBLE) did some remodeling (INAUDIBLE) did some remodeling in that place. You got some fancy toys.

MYERS: We went to the Depot and picked up some paint.

MARCIANO: (INAUDIBLE), I appreciate it. Looking great, looking great.

Selfishly, I want (INAUDIBLE) speak about, speak to north of Naples. You know, I'm in Fort Myers, probably going to stay here. So likely, and see if you agree with this, likely going to be on the good side of the storm, likely, how strong would you suspect the winds to be 12 hours from now right here?

MYERS: You know what, Rob? I would have said probably six hours ago, you're going to be on the good side of the storm. But I want to go back to my weather switcher. Let's go back to the weather board, and that's where the next graphic is. Back, let's pretend I was standing there. This is actually the latest radar out of Key West. And I have noticed a little wobble to the left in the past hour or so. Hopefully it is just a wobble, because the farther this goes north, the more populated the area is going to be around the eye of the storm.

I still think where you are, you get left-side eyewall rather than central eyewall or even the right side, which would be the worst possible scenario. But you are still going to get some surge.

(INAUDIBLE), Rob, we always talk about the surge being south of the eye, because that's where the wind is blowing onshore. Let's say this is the -- let's say you're right there. You're right there. And if the wind is blowing this way, then the water piles up this way. If the water's -- and the wind is blowing this way, then the water's actually blowing offshore, and you don't get as much of a surge.

So that's where we expect you to be just to the north of the eye. But, you know, sometimes wobble turns into turns, and we'll see what happens in the next few hours.

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