Return to Transcripts main page

DIPLOMATIC LICENSE

Current Events at the United Nations

Aired December 30, 2005 - 21:00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

RICHARD ROTH, CNN ANCHOR: Happy New Year. Our final show of 2005 and in some time zones perhaps the first show of the new year. Helping us kick in the new year, the Belafonte (ph) West African Dance Ensemble from Guinea, who performed at the United Nations two weeks ago.
Welcome to DIPLOMATIC LICENSE. I'm Richard Roth.

I think we all know there were some big stories in 2005. What news events would you have remembered best if someone called you or met with you and demanded an answer?

Well, I'm glad I brought that up since the BBC World Service commissioned just that. More than 32,000 people around the world were asked "In the future, when historians think about the year 2005, what event of global significance do you think will be seen as most important?"

There was a tie for the lead between the war in Iraq and the tsunami. Third was more weather, the U.S. hurricanes, Katrina and Rita, a tough pair. In fourth place, the death of Pope John Paul followed by the London bombings; then global warming, avian flu, the Pakistan earthquake and the Bali terror bombings.

What do these numbers mean? How come the championships won by Chelsea and the Chicago White Sox are not on the list?

Instead of asking questions, we turn the tables of Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, which conducted the survey along with the international polling firm Globe Scan. Mr. Kull is in Washington.

If historians were to look back at this survey, Mr. Kull, what is the most significant result?

STEVEN KULL, PROGRAM ON INTL. POLICY ATTITUDES: I think what stands out is you could say this is the year of compassion. What really concerned people this year had to do with human suffering, whether natural disasters, earthquakes, the tsunami, all kinds -- concerns about poverty. Almost half of the responses that were given were somehow related to human suffering.

ROTH: But this is sort of understandable because of the vast television coverage of all of these events, right?

KULL: Well, they also had vast coverage of sports events and pop stars and celebrities, and those did not appear at all; not in any country was that prominent.

ROTH: Were the people given a list or were they just asked off the cuff, come up with the top stories?

KULL: It was wide open. They could answer however they liked.

ROTH: But did they have a list to go by with other stories up for grabs?

KULL: No. It was just whatever they said, whatever came out of their mouth.

ROTH: I mean, also, isn't it interesting, I mean, polling, as you know, you can get a different answer certainly on the way the question is asked. You decided to do it as if historians look back.

KULL: That's right.

ROTH: . because that's different on some issues, maybe really important and big for that year, but then fade over time. Did that affect the survey?

KULL: Well, you never know what people are going to say, but sure. Certainly, we were asking them to think in a big timeframe.

ROTH: What about some of the issues that maybe surprised you that didn't come up on the radar list of the top 10? Elections in Germany, different things, possible changes in Darfur, Sudan, the Iranian -- I'm not saying they should be there, but other issues.

KULL: Well, in Germany 16 percent thought that the German elections were the most important story, and Darfur got a small number. AIDS, for example, got a large number in Africa, and in several African countries. So there were certain issues and stories that were more salient in different cultures or different countries. But these were the ones that were the most dominant globally, and what is really striking is how much consensus there was.

The stories that were seen as the most important globally were also the most important in the majority of countries.

ROTH: Do you think that because television networks are bombarding people with images of the tsunami and Katrina, it's good video, that that is going to further make people aware of weather stories and global warming, and even if perhaps things are not as dramatic as that?

KULL: Of course. Whatever is reported is salient to people. But there are a lot of things that they are presented that they could respond to, and clearly the concerns, the stories of suffering, were salient. Which means that it is sort of a sad year, a painful year for people, but it is also a year where people are seen as kind of reaching out, are sensing people around the world and are showing concern.

ROTH: The results from people sampled in the United Kingdom were a little startling, weren't they, considering one of the bigger stories that occurred in London on the subways?

KULL: Well, it was very interesting that in London, yes, just 7 percent cited the London bombings as a key story, which is in sharp contrast to Indonesia, where 48 percent cited the Bali bombings. In England, more cited global warming as a key issue than cited the London bombings. So, clearly, the British were really taking the position of trying to think about the larger world, not just things close to home.

ROTH: Twenty-seven countries, I believe, totally, were surveyed. How come it's that total? Is that representative of the world we live in?

KULL: Well, that's a pretty good number, covers a very large percentage of the world population. We tried to get them from all regions so it's quite a good sample.

ROTH: Tell us how you noted that certain regions of the global were concerned about issues that were very far away from them.

KULL: Well, you can see just by -- not everybody lives where the tsunamis were or the London bombings, yet these things appeared very prominently. There was some correlation between local stories and what people saw as important, but I think really what stood out is how much people were thinking in the global framework.

ROTH: Do you think Pope John Paul should have gotten higher positioning on the chart, better than number four?

KULL: Well, he was higher in a number of countries, Poland particularly. Italy, also. Congo, interestingly. I think that's for others to decide, what is most important. I just want to know what people are thinking.

ROTH: OK, Steven Kull, we want to thank you for your survey done on the top stories of the year. Mr. Kull is the director of the Program of International Policy Attitudes at the Center on Policy Attitudes. You're a political psychologist on world issues and international affairs. Thank you very much for joining us on DIPLOMATIC LICENSE.

KULL: You're welcome.

ROTH: The DIPLOMATIC LICENSE end of the year party show rolls on. Grab a partner and join the ballet; (UNINTELLIGIBLE) of Paraguay came a long way to perform at the United Nations for the South U.N. Day of Cooperation. Go south, young lady.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAN EGELAND, U.N. HUMANITARIAN CHIEF: I feel that 2005 was a much better year than 2004, much more resources, much more robust action, and also more attention to even forgotten and neglected emergencies, and that in spite of the tsunami taking so much resources and so much attention. So I am optimistic. I am optimistic for 2006.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROTH: A curiously optimistic outlook by the U.N.'s humanitarian chief, Jan Egeland, who is still frustrated over inaction by governments in the United Nations in several parts of the world where many go without food and shelter and are menaced daily by armies and militias.

Helping refugees with relief, renewal and respect is the mandate of the organization called the International Rescue Committee. At the IRC's annual black tie dinner recently awards were given to some high profile people who took action that benefited refugees, including a movie director and some former U.S. presidents.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, FMR. U.S. SECY. OF STATE: I think the IRC is one of the most central organizations today because of the millions of refugees, people that I really call the international homeless, that they help not only in terms of when they are in the refugees camps, but then trying to help those camps function properly, and then to get people out so they aren't what is known as warehoused.

AKOUT DE DUT, FORMER REFUGEE: I am (UNINTELLIGIBLE). I went to Egypt as a refugee and was accepted by the United Nations through the U.S. embassy, and I was resettled in Dallas, Texas by the IRC.

(UNINTELLIGIBLE). Also I greet you in the language of my new home, Dallas, Texas, and say to you all howdy.

I am grateful, honored and thrilled to be a voice for millions of refugees around the world.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you for being here. Thank you very much. Thank you.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No Rwandans.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Foreign nationals only. Sorry, Father, these are the orders.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But you can't leave the children behind.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Sorry, Father, we have our orders.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We can't leave them.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We can do no more.

DON CHEADLE, ACTOR: Father, it is of no use. These men are not here -- they are not here to help us. Please, there is nothing we can do. Get your people on the bus. I will take care of the others.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE RUPP, INTL. RESCUE COMMITTEE: "Hotel Rwanda" was a fabulous film. We were very -- had been very heavily involved in Rwanda since before the genocide. And we find it to be really important that Terry George and Don Cheadle made this film to call people's attention to it.

TERRY GEORGE, "HOTEL RWANDA" DIRECTOR: We wanted "Hotel Rwanda" not to be specific to Rwanda, to be a film that inspired people against genocide, against holocaust, against the inhumanity of man. It was a universal story. And unfortunately, because things like Darfur in Sudan and DR Congo are going on, we hope that the film will become a catalyst for involvement rather than a piece of history.

CHEADLE: I have had the privilege to be involved with this film and have it be really sort of an awareness-raising moment in time, so to just continue that work is something that just to me makes a lot of sense.

GEORGE: Don and (INAUDIBLE) and Sophie and I have been unable to let not just the movie but the place where we shot it and the content itself and the cause, to let it go. And we shouldn't let it go. We've all been trying to spread the world about what we believe collectively is the single most important issue of our time.

RUPP: We thought it was important to recognize both President Clinton and former President Bush for the role they played in generating resources for tsunami relief and then also for getting engaged in Katrina relief in this country.

WINSTON LORD, INTL. RESCUE COMMITTEE: Together they have circled the globe, crossed the nation and covered the media with appeals to American hearts and wallets. In so doing they have earned the highest recognition of the International Rescue Committee.

BILL CLINTON, FMR. U.S. PRESIDENT: I am deeply honored to receive this award with the former President Bush, a man I have liked and admired for more than 20 years now. We have had a grand time working on the tsunami and then later working on Katrina relief and we still have lots of work to do in the tsunami-related areas. Not all the governments have fulfilled all their commitments. We still have lots of temporary shelter to build in a hurry in Indonesia to avoid disaster.

ALBRIGHT: The kind of work that he's been doing to aid the tsunami victims is to put his incredible power and communication ability and way of being able to motivate people to the end of helping those who were so terribly displaced and struggling.

CLINTON: I will always be grateful for this award, because of my admiration for this organization. Thank you very much.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REPORTER: What specific steps do you have in mind to sort of generate more donations, contributions?

GEORGE BUSH, SR., FMR. U.S. PRESIDENT: When I was president, if you said I don't know too much, people would say you've got a really stupid president. But I don't know the answer to your question. I just don't know. Maybe the secretary-general could take it. But I don't, I honestly don't know the answer.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROTH: Former President Bush was traveling and couldn't accept the International Rescue Committee award in person, but here he was at the United Nations the other day telling the press I don't know.

It was interesting at that International Rescue Committee dinner to see former President Clinton hugging actor Don Cheadle. The movie was about Rwanda, and Clinton and his U.N. Ambassador Albright did nothing to stop the genocide and made sure troops weren't sent.

Saying the answer I don't know, of course, is something that politicians and journalists are not comfortable with and it's completely unacceptable when it is prediction time here on DIPLOMATIC LICENSE. It's time for fearless predictions for 2006.

We will start off with a newcomer, someone with a better track record over time, the man known simply as the Amazing Kreskin. Better known inside the borders of the United States, we asked Kreskin to expand his mental horizons.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

THE AMAZING KRESKIN, MENTALIST: I don't see a great future for Castro. I think when he steps down, whether it's because of illness or what have you, his son is not going to take over. I would bet $1,000 he's not going to. Unfortunately, the military may, because military and dictatorship governments collapse suddenly when the key person passes out of the scene.

Also, when our troops are coming home. I don't think it's going to be in the very distant future. I think it's going to be very soon. Four to six years, you'll have already all of them home. As far as the length of the war on terrorism, well, let's look at the beginning of the war. It took 30 years for this war to happen, it was in preparation, so it's going to be a while. Unfortunately, it's going to be a while.

Now, let's get serious for a moment. Paris Hilton. How in the world can you get serious about Paris Hilton? I predict, and I believe this in my heart and soul, this Paris Hilton will not win an Academy Award within the next 72 years.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROTH: Well, he really went out on a limb there.

Now I bet there are some of you who are saying, hey, what happened to last year's picks? How did you guys do?

Well, we'll hit the review button, go back a year and hear what then "La Monde" correspondent Afsane Bassir Pour, "Times of London" reporter James Bone, and myself all predicted for the year just wrapped up, 2005.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

AFSANE BASSIR POUR, FMR. JOURNALIST: My prediction is on Iraq. I think we will see, unfortunately, the emergence with a vengeance of Ahmed Chalabi. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him manipulating a lot of Shiites in Iraq.

My second prediction is that we will see a new role, a very important role, for Paul Wolfowitz, and he might even replace Donald Rumsfeld, which will be very good for the Middle East Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And I will repeat my last year's prediction. I do think there will be some movement in that region.

My other prediction is about the World Trade Organization. I think the new director-general who is to be chosen the end of May will be the Frenchman Pascal Lamy, who was the European commissioner.

And I think, you know, maybe wishful thinking, that maybe the United Nations will start thinking about leaving New York. I mean, they keep asking them to leave New York. Why not?

ROTH: James Bone?

JAMES BONE, "TIMES OF LONDON": Richard, I can't resist the Iraq prediction, and my prediction again is bad for Iraq, that there will be a huge battle for Kirkuk as the Kurds try to reclaim that city, and there will be large numbers of dead towards the end of the year as the Kurds move in and try to force out the Arabs who were resettled there under Saddam.

My second prediction is that China will become increasingly involved in civil wars in Africa in the search for oil. And we will be having reports of military advisors, Chinese military advisors, working with African governments to suppress rebel movements in resource-rich countries.

And my third prediction is that there will by an attempt to let off a dirty bomb in Times Square, but it will be intercepted at the port in New Jersey as it comes in on a container ship from Somalia.

ROTH: Thank you very much, James.

Here are my picks for 2005. Mullah Omar, captured.

A former U.S. president dies.

President Bush must choose a new vice president.

Israel and the Palestinians on the verge of a historic peace agreement.

United States considers withdrawing from Iraq in December, leaving skeleton force.

Hollywood's Best Picture of the year is called "Sideways." Jamie Foxx wins Best Actor for the movie "Ray."

U.N. ambassador arrested, charged in prostitution and sex ring.

Two airplanes collide over a major city. It's not terrorism.

Those are the picks for 2005. Afsane, I think you also had an Oscar pick?

BASSIR POUR: Yes, for me, I think the Oscar for Best Actor will go to Don Cheadle for "Hotel Rwanda." I really hope he wins. He was excellent.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROTH: Well, the only thing Cheadle got was a hug, there, from Bill Clinton. I was right on Jamie Foxx, and the United States talked a lot about troop reductions, and there was the Gaza handover by Israel. But I can't really say, James, that I got anything completely right.

BONE: Well, I noticed that Afsane didn't even predict that she was going to get a job with the United Nations.

ROTH: Which she ended up getting.

BONE: . which she ended up getting. So there goes.

ROTH: Maybe she knew something at the time. It's very tough when you're doing predictions for the new year if you know something. She was right on the World Trade official, Pascal Lamy, but he was favored, wasn't he, among the selections?

BONE: I think so. I think that was an easy pick.

ROTH: I'm glad your dirty bomb incident didn't happen.

BONE: I did say intercepted, though, mind you.

ROTH: Maybe that happened and we don't know. I mean, sometimes the United States has said that these picks can be.

BONE: Well, have me back if we discover it did.

ROTH: They're early. They may indeed be proven right.

All right, let's look ahead as quickly as we can and get away from our 2006 selections -- 2005 picks. Also, Afsane is now working for the United Nations in Brussels. She left us with these New Years predictions.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BASSIR POUR: Hello, Richard. Hello, James. It's good to be back doing the predictions again.

Well, I predict that since I am an international civil servant now, working for the United Nations, my predictions are going to be very boring. Sorry, I mean measured.

I predict that a woman will emerge as a dark horse in the race for the top job at the United Nations. Wishful thinking.

I predict a leap forward in the Middle East in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

And here comes the real exciting one. I predict a bigger and more visible role for the European Union on the international stage. That's because I'm based in Brussels.

And, lastly, I predict that Woody Allen's new movie, "Match Point," will win the Oscars. It's an excellent movie.

Happy New Year, everyone.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROTH: You know, it's interesting. Afsane seems to have slowed down since she started working for the United Nations.

Now for the man that ended 2005 with a bang, or a diplomatic head-on collision with the secretary-general about a Mercedes, James Bone. Please peer into the near future with your predictions for 2006.

BONE: OK, 200,000 die of bird flu in China.

Failed terrorist attack on nuclear plant in Russia.

Another tsunami hits Indonesia.

A leader of the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda is arrested by U.N. troops in neighboring Sudan or Congo and taken before the International Court in the Hague.

A leftist resurgence in Latin America with Andres Lopez Obrador winning the presidency in Mexico and Sandinista strongmen making a comeback in Nicaragua and Hugo Chavez, of Venezuela, will accuse the United States of a failed assassination attempt.

The U.N. secretary-general, well, that's a big question. I predict a South Korean presented as a joint candidate with North Korea, backed by the United States, but I don't know the name yet.

ROTH: I don't even want to get out of bed after listening to those picks. But we'll have to see. They may come true. Thank you very much, James.

Here are my 2006 predictions.

The Security Council selects an Asian businessman as the next secretary-general. I know the name, but I'm not allowed to share it.

Number two, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad clings to power after violence comes to Damascus.

Two-A, a nuclear scare involving missing missile or material found in a moving vehicle, extortion plot busted.

Number three, it's now or never, Mladic and Karadzic, wanted war crimes suspects, turned over by Serbia to the International Criminal Court.

Number four, Brazil beats the Czech Republic in the World Cup soccer final, 4-1.

Number five, gold hits $620 an ounce.

Number six, best movie of the year, the Oscar goes to "Broke Back Mountain;" Philip Seymour Hoffman beats out "King Kong" for Best Actor.

That's the future. I now predict viewers are now going to want to see the latest weather and news, which is next on CNN.

Thank you, James. I'm Richard Roth, in New York. Thanks for watching.

END

TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com