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CNN Live Sunday

Bush Travels to Cleveland for Iraq Speech; Correctly Using Child Safety Seats; Assessing the War; Rumsfeld Chastised for Iraq Comments

Aired March 19, 2006 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Ahead in this hour, on the front lines. What, if anything, has changed three years into the war in Iraq?
Plus, old man winter isn't leaving without a fight. Parts of the country are getting hit on this last day of winter.

And then tracking your every move. It's called pinging and someone could be doing it to you right now.

It's Sunday, March 19th, and you're watching CNN LIVE SUNDAY. I'm Carol Lin. And these are the stories making news right now.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is drawing fire for saying it would be like handing Germany back to the Nazis if U.S. forces abandoned Iraq.

And Australia's northeastern coast is getting slammed right now with a category four hurricane, called a cyclone in that part of the world. Now conditions are iffy, but we're working on getting a live report, and I think we have it.

In the meantime, right here in the United States, more than five inches of rain fell today around the Dallas Metroplex. Meteorologist Bonnie Schneider is study the situation. She'll be with us in a couple of minutes.

A high ranking Democrat says a possible censure for President Bush may be a little premature. Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois says an investigation should be completed first. Last week, Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin introduced a censure measure for the president for authorizing the domestic spying program.

I begin with a promise that by the end of the hour you will have more perspective on the Iraq War. Three years ago today, the United States went to war in Iraq. Today, the Sunnis and Shia are killing each other. Iraq's former prime minister says 50 to 60 people are killed every day. U.S. forces are under attack. And just today, heavy fighting broke out after insurgents attacked a government office guarded by American troops.

Now, here at home, the anniversary is marked by protest, yet the president says the war in Iraq will lay the foundations for peace for generations to come. So we are putting that to the test with our coverage this hour. First to the White House and CNN's Elaine Quijano. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): Three years after he ordered U.S. troops to Iraq, President Bush said Americans should offer thanks to military personnel and their families and gave an upbeat assessment of Iraq's political landscape.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And now the Iraqi leaders are working together to enact a government that reflect the will of the people. And so I'm encouraged on the progress.

QUIJANO: But Iraq's former prime minister, Ayad Allawi, believes tensions among ethnic groups have erupted in a civil war. He told the BBC, "we are losing each day as an average 50 to 60 people throughout the country, if not more. If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is."

Yet Vice President Dick Cheney says the current sectarian violence does not amount to war and says desperate terrorists are to blame.

DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: What we've seen is a series effort by them to foment civil war, but I don't think they've been successful.

QUIJANO: The top commander of coalition forces in Iraq called this a fragile time, but said . . .

GEN. GEORGE CASEY, COMMANDING GENERAL, FORCES IN IRAQ: We're a long way from civil war.

QUIJANO: The Bush administration says Iraqi forces and leaders are responding to the violence and officials argue against pulling out U.S. troops too soon. In an op-ed, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said, "turning our backs on post-war Iraq today would be the modern equivalent of handing post-war Germany back to the Nazis."

SEN. RICHARD LUGAR, (R) INDIANA: Well, I agree with Secretary Rumsfeld. It would be unthinkable to simply cut and run. But I agree with my colleague, Joe Biden, that materially things worsened and the oil situation and the electricity situation for ordinary Iraqis.

QUIJANO: On this third anniversary, a retired Army general blasted Secretary Rumsfeld. Paul Eaton trained Iraqi forces from 2003 to 2004 and said of his former boss, "he has shown himself incompetent strategically, operationally and tactically, and is far more than anyone else responsible for what has happened to our important mission in Iraq. Mr. Rumsfeld must step down."

SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN, (D) DELAWARE: It would energize, energize the rest of the world to be willing to help us. It would energize American forces. It would energize the political environment. Yes, he should step down.

(END VIDEOTAPE) QUIJANO: A Pentagon spokesman says Secretary Rumsfeld serves at the pleasure of the president and says retired General Eaton is certainly entitled to his opinion. As for President Bush, tomorrow he travels to Cleveland to deliver yet another speech on Iraq. Part of a renewed effort by the Bush administration to shape public opinion.

Carol.

LIN: And we'll be covering the reception that the president gets. Thank you, Elaine.

Now, a former presidential adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, said Donald Rumsfeld got it wrong when he compared the situation in Iraq to post-war Germany after the Nazis' defeat.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: When we occupied the German in '45, there was no alternative to our presence, there was no resistance. The Germans were totally crushed. There was no resistance. And regamented (ph) Germans realized that they had to go back to the democracy that they had before Hitler came to power. And many people don't know that Germany was a thriving democracy for decades before Hitler came to power. The situation in Iraq is totally different. And for Secretary Rumsfeld to be talking this way, suggests either he doesn't know history or he's simply demagoging.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIN: Some perspective there. Mr. Brzezinski served as national security adviser to former President Carter.

So, yes, there were anti-war protests today, but the one in New York drew only a few hundred people. One of the biggest demonstrations was held last night in Chicago. About 7,000 people marched down Michigan Avenue under banners calling for peace, education, and health care. Now, among world capitals, police say there were about 15,000 demonstrators in London, but it was only a third of the size of last year's rally.

A little later we are going to try something different and we'd like you to play a part. If you have any questions about Iraq, and who doesn't, well, you can send them to us via e-mail for our military expert, Ken Robinson. He was with the special forces. Ken is going to join us later with those answers. So you can send your questions to weekends@cnn.com. That's weekends@cnn.com. We want to hear from you.

But right now, let's take a look at the blast of winter right here in the United States. Our meteorologist Bonnie Schneider has a national outlook.

All right, winter's last chance, Bonnie, tomorrow's spring.

(WEATHER REPORT) LIN: So Bonnie was showing you the position of Cyclone Larry. Extensive damage is being reported there right now. This event has been going on for the last several hours. Craig Burke is with Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and he's on the phone with me right now from Cairns's Airport. That's about 60 miles from where Larry slammed ashore.

Craig, what the situation right now on the ground?

CRAIG BURKE, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY: Yes, look, there's two very dire conditions right through the local area here, which extends from Cape Tribulation right down to this Kobel (ph) area. We have had wind gusts up to 300 kilometers per hour, which translates to about 150 knots, in the vicinity of the destructive winds just near the eye. That actually occurred about five hours ago when the cyclone made landfall at Innisfail. And the population there is around about 8,000 people. So that's -- the folks there would have experiencing winds up to 300 kilometers per hour. And the general population through the area up here is over 100,000. So, this -- it's a major, major weather event and probably the strongest cyclone to make landfall in Cairns for 100 years.

LIN: So, Craig, we're just getting some fresh pictures in. We don't have pictures from the event of the last couple of hours, which has been extreme, but do you know how many people were able to get out of harm's way? Are you predicting that lives have been spared?

BURKE: Yes, look, they tell us through (ph) not clear at this stage because the winds are so intense again through the area where it made landfall that it's too dangerous for crews to go in and survey the extent of the damage. So we -- it's a matter of just waiting at least another two hours for the winds to abate slightly. But, yes . . .

LIN: Well, tell us about your warning system, Craig, because people had ample time to get out of harm's way.

BURKE: That's right. With Cyclone Larry developed out in the Coral Sea, which to the northeast of the Queensland coast, about Tuesday last week, it was tracking and all the weather models had it tracking towards the north Queensland coast over the weekend. And an impact was expected Monday morning through the local area here. So that's what's happened. We starting putting out cyclone warnings for this on Friday last weekend.

LIN: Right.

BURKE: And through that area we're aware that such a cyclone was going to happen.

LIN: And, Craig, where are you? Are you in some sort of underground bunker because we're able to talk to you and you're just 60 miles away from where it made landfall.

BURKE: Sure. Look, the area here was affected quite severely. About two hours ago, we had wind squalls coming through at 60 knots, which isn't quite as intense as what was occurring further southward, so we escaped the full impact of the system here. But certainly down through Innisfail, which is about 60 miles to the south of Cairns, residents for that area were experiencing winds gusts up to 150 knots. So the reports we've been receiving through the morning have been quite devastating. Actually with lots of roof and structural damage to many properties through the community here.

LIN: All right, Craig, thank you very much for that update.

We're going to stay on top of this story. It's still developing. We're still expecting fresh pictures in from this category five, now category four storm.

Here in the United States, we know the force of hurricane winds. And the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, cadaver dogs now are finding more human remains in New Orleans. Two bodies and bones that may belong to a third, were found in the lower ninth ward, the neighborhood hardest hit by the storm. Teams of dogs are going through the ninth ward along with demolition crews.

And another FEMA foul-up could cost folks some money. The agency is sending letters to people who got FEMA money after hurricanes last year. Well, it turns out they weren't supposed to get that money, so FEMA wants them to pay it back. As many as 50,000 people will be asked to make those repayments.

And a pair of White House employees are in trouble for telling hurricane victims they were journalists. Newspapers are reporting a Mississippi couple says two men came to their home in advance of a trip by President Bush to the Gulf Coast. The couple says the men first identified themselves as being from Fox News, but later said they were secret service agents. Well, that's not true. A White House spokesman says that the two face discipline.

Well, he's New Jersey's worst serial killer and now a judge is giving Charles Cullen the chance to help save a life. We're going to explain next.

And find out how your cell phone makes fighting crime a little easier for law enforcement.

And we've heard that some American's perspective on the Iraq War, well, some of you have told us, but does the Iraqi government think any differently? I'm going to speak with a former Iraqi minister when CNN LIVE SUNDAY continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: In news "Across America" today, a judge in New Jersey says convicted serial killer Charles Cullen can donate one of his kidneys to someone needing a transplant. Cullen, a former nurse, is in prison after admitting to killing 29 patients.

In South Carolina, convicted sex offender Kenneth Hinson is due in court tomorrow for another bond hearing. Hinson is being held without bond already, accused of kidnaping and sexually assaulting two 17-year-old girls.

Bill Lester will have to wait another day for his part in racing history. He is the first black driver to qualify for the highest level of Nascar racing since 1986. But today's race, Atlanta's Golden Coral 500, was rained out until tomorrow.

The advocacy group Safe Kids Worldwide says most parents think they are using the child safety seats in their cars correctly, but most of them aren't. Gary Nurenberg has the story of one woman who learned that in a tragic way. She is now trying to help other parents.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOYCE FARRELL, CHILD SAFETY TECHNICIAN: Making a sandwich for you.

GARY NURENBERG, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): Joyce Farrell has her hands happily full with three kids these days.

JOYCE FARRELL: Oh, let me get your face first. Turn around here like this.

NURENBERG: But there is no way she can wash the memory of what happened 11 years ago out of her mind.

JOYCE FARRELL: I had two children, 4 and 2, Laura and Amy, and in 1995 we were in a car crash and they were killed. I mean, they were not properly restrained and I didn't even realize it.

NURENBERG: Now Joyce is a trained car safety seat technician who, with her husband, volunteers at clinics like these to help other parents install and use the seats properly.

JASON FERRELL, SAFETY SEAT TECHNICIAN: It just meant so much to her that she's helping other kids. That they won't suffer like her children did and that she wants to make sure that they're safer.

NURENBERG: They are buoyed by stories like the one about the woman who showed up at their clinic with two seats not safely in place.

JIM LEHMAN, SAFETY INSPECTOR: We correctly installed those seats and the following day she was t-boned by a Mac truck and the police report stated that the only reason that her one son was alive was because of the way his seat was installed.

NURENBERG: A legacy for Laura and Amy and a mom whose loss is helping other kids live.

Gary Nurenberg, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Well, the uncertainty of the nation's oil supply. Up next, a grim warning about the dangers facing America's gas pumps. And don't forget to e-mail us your questions about what you want to know about the war in Iraq. Our military expert will have some answers for you when CNN LIVE SUNDAY continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Call it the perfect storm times two. A huge hurricane damages U.S. refineries just as a terror attack cripples Mideast oil production. There would be few human casualties, but damage to the world's oil supply would be catastrophic. On this weekend's "CNN PRESENTS," Frank Sesno explores this frightening scenario.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANK SESNO, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): In Houston, Texas, it is a terrifying time. The streets are deserted. Just the day before, gridlock finally gave way to exodus, as residents fled, one step ahead of this year's monster storm, Hurricane Steve.

The region is home to nearly two dozen major refineries. Together, they process about a fourth of all the oil used in America.

Category five Hurricane Steve slams ashore, with winds of nearly 200 miles an hour. The death toll is modest, but the physical damage is breathtaking. Especially oil refineries, storage facilities, and hundreds of offshore platforms, badly damaged. Gasoline prices shoot up across the country. Panic buying leads to long lines and fears of shortages.

September 26, 2009. Saudi Arabia is pumping 10 million barrels a day. Much of the kingdom's oil passes through the sprawling Abqaiq processing facility near Ras Tanura.

At 12:45 p.m., air traffic controllers pick up a distress call from a passenger jet flying from Tehran to Riyadh. The plane disappears from their screens. At 1:04, an Arab satellite channel reports massive explosions at Abqaiq.

Within minutes, there are reports of a second attack on Saudi Arabia's two largest export terminals and Ras Tanura and at Yanbu on the Red Sea. Oil markets are in chaos. A barrel of crude quickly tops $150. Oil experts predict gasoline will hit $7 a gallon in the U.S., $10 a gallon in Europe. Political and business leaders fear the worst.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: So just how vulnerable is the world's oil supply? Find out on "CNN PRESENTS: We Were Warned" tonight at 8:00 Eastern and also 8:00 p.m. Pacific only on CNN.

We have been tracking what promises to be a killer storm, a category four, now cyclone, a hurricane in effect, slamming into Australia. We know that nightmare, so we are sympathetic to these people. We're working on this developing story. But Shanon Cook has more on this and so much more. Shanon.

SHANON COOK, CNN ANCHOR: Hey there, thank you, Carol, very much.

We actually have some new video coming into us of some of the damage from Cyclone Larry. The damage shows trees falling down. You can see here wind just moving these trees like crazy. Cyclone Larry basically smashed into the far north coast of Queensland about four hours ago. Sorry, five hours ago. Tore roofs off buildings and destroyed houses. You see trees falling down there.

It was a category five cyclone when it made landfall at the town of Innisfail. That's the strongest possible category for a cyclone. It's now been downgraded to a category four. No reports of deaths or injuries at this point, but officials are warning of surging coastal tides. And, Carol, very luckily, thousands of tourists and local residents were evacuated ahead of the storm.

LIN: Right. It's too early to know what damage totals are yet, but Shanon, you're from Australia, you know that area well, what is it like?

COOK: Well, let me tell you about the northeastern coast of the state of Queensland, which is where this cyclone hit. Basically it's a very popular tourist strip because along that coastline is the Great Barrier Reef. The Great Barrier Reef is one of the seven natural wonders of the world. You're talking about a very tropical climate in this area and they do get a couple of cyclones each monsoonal season.

And I spoke to a couple of residents on the ground not far from Innisfail and they said that people in the area are very cyclone savvy. They heed evacuation warnings. They stick to building regulations. And they stock up on supplies. But nevertheless, they say that without a doubt, this is the strongest cyclone they've seen in decades.

LIN: Wow. All right. Good to know that they're well prepared. Shanon, thank you.

COOK: Absolutely. Thank you.

LIN: Well, the story of newlyweds who didn't want a war to get in the way of love, so the wife moved to Iraq to be with her husband. But together time is not what they got.

And still to come, do you leave home with a personal tracking device every day and not even know it? You're going to find out when CNN LIVE SUNDAY returns right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Good evening, here's a quick look at what's happening right now in the news.

As the war in Iraq moves into its fourth year, there is word that a gun battle between U.S. troops and insurgents in the town of Ramadi.

And Donald Rumsfeld, under fire. A retired army major general is questioning the defense secretary's leadership abilities. In a "New York Times" op-ed piece, Paul Eaton calls for Rumsfeld to step down.

More grim discoveries in New Orleans. Searchers combing the Lower Ninth Ward found the bodies of two more victims, and they also found bones that could be the remains of a third person today.

Today is the last day of winter, but don't tell that to the folks in Nebraska. They are under a winter storm warning through tomorrow. Forecasters say more than a foot of snow is likely for some areas of the state.

And thunderstorms have dumped half a foot of rain on the Dallas area since Friday. The water is submerging cars and pouring into homes. At least two people have been rescued from flooded houses.

The war in Iraq has now lasted three years. The president says the sacrifice is worth it, but what's the assessment from an Iraqi?

Well, joining us now from Watertown, Massachusetts is Mishkat al Moumin. She is a former environment minister in the Iraqi interim government and now a fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. Good to have you, ma'am.

MISHKAT AL MOUMIN, FORMER IRAQI ENVIRONMENT MINISTER: Thank you, nice talking to you, Carol.

LIN: Do you think that you and your family are better off after the U.S. invasion?

AL MOUMIN: Let me tell you a story, that I really lived and witnessed. I was in Baghdad when the bombing took place. The night before, my neighbor came to my house and said, "We are going to die." I looked deeply into her eyes, and I told her, "No, we are not going to die. And me and you, we are going to sit, watching Saddam Hussein's trial on the TV." And that did happen. There is a hope in Iraq. And I'm sure that the Iraqi people will recover soon.

LIN: What is -- go ahead.

AL MOUMIN: There are cons and pros, related to this war. And if we manage, I mean, we, Iraqi people, if we manage to promote those pluses that we made, I think we will be better off.

LIN: Is it your view, from sitting here in the United States, and getting all the news reports, is it your view that your country is on the verge of civil war?

AL MOUMIN: There is a severe violence taking place in Iraq. And I hope that violence will not be expanded to be civil war. There is a violence going on, and there is killing and shooting taking place in Iraq. And if the security situation does not get addressed, we might be facing something of that kind.

LIN: So, serious concerns, but what ...

AL MOUMIN: Serious concerns.

LIN: What is daily life like, then, for your family?

AL MOUMIN: Daily life is horrible. Lack of water, lack of electrical power, lack of security. And when I talked about addressing the security situation, I don't mean that only law and order. I don't mean -- or I don't understand security as law and order as commands and things of that sort.

LIN: Uh-huh, uh-huh.

AL MOUMIN: I think what is really necessarily should take place is social and economic programs. Sometimes for ...

LIN: Well, easy to say -- I don't mean to interrupt here, easy to say but very difficult to do when people can't leave their homes.

AL MOUMIN: It's not very difficult to do. It's not impossible.

LIN: It's not impossible, but very difficult.

AL MOUMIN: No, it's not very difficult.

LIN: What kind of democracy is it, then, that the United States has provided if people cannot leave their houses?

AL MOUMIN: And in spite of everything in spite of the bombing and the killing, there are students that are facing death every day and going to school. And we need to support those students. I bet you don't know that Iraqi students do not have loans as any other students in the whole world.

LIN: Hmm.

AL MOUMIN: You don't know, for example there is no mortgages for -- for Iraqi people to buy a house or to get a decent living. There is no micro lending for Iraqi women to start a small businesses. Even though that we do have 1 million widows.

LIN: So everything is cash out. Everything has to be 100 percent paid for.

AL MOUMIN: Yes, exactly. Exactly.

LIN: So do you ...

AL MOUMIN: And we need to support our social fabric.

LIN: So do you -- do you plan on returning?

AL MOUMIN: Iraq will always be a home for me.

LIN: Does that mean you ...

AL MOUMIN: And Baghdad is my ...

LIN: Will you serve again, then, after your fellowship?

AL MOUMIN: After my fellowship -- or, actually, if I may say, I'm working through my NGO, women and environment organization ...

LIN: Uh-huh.

AL MOUMIN: I see myself as a technocrat, as a person who can serve to support and help people.

LIN: And does that mean you'll have to do that from the United States?

AL MOUMIN: I can do that from the U.S., and I can go back and forth. But I think I can do much from here.

LIN: Much from here. Mishkat al Moumin, I'm sure your family misses you greatly. Good luck with the fellowship.

AL MOUMIN: Thanks a lot.

LIN: It's great to have the Iraqi perspective.

AL MOUMIN: Thank you.

LIN: Well, separated by war, U.S. troops in Iraq thousands of miles from their families. Missing out on birthdays and graduations. Even the birth of a child. Now, the story of one military wife who didn't want that kind of life. So she got on a plane to be with her husband in Iraq. But as CNN's Alex Quade reports, her plans quickly went awry.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALEX QUADE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When Juliann met Erik it was love at first sight. She was a first grade teacher in Arizona. He was in the Army National Guard.

CAPT. ERIK FROEHLICH, U.S. ARMY NATIONAL GUARD: I can't believe how wonderful of a woman she is.

JULIANN FROEHLICH, CIVILIAN CONTRACTOR: Love at first sight, yeah, it definitely was.

QUADE: They married. A few days later, Erik Froehlich was deployed to Iraq, for a year. So the new Mrs. Froehlich followed him.

J. FROEHLICH: Many people have asked me if I had my head examined lately, but I am more than happy to follow my husband.

QUADE: She took a job with civilian contractor KBR, Kellogg, Brown and Root, which sent her to Tikrit, the same city where Erik was.

(on camera): Any second thoughts? Any ... J. FROEHLICH: Like what the heck am I doing? Maybe just a little bit.

QUADE (voice-over): Their dream of being together their first year of marriage was fulfilled, almost.

E. FROEHLICH: She left the safety and security of her home, her family back home. She did all that to be here with me.

QUADE: But Erik was at a different base. Eight miles away.

J. FROEHLICH: It does feel like 8,000 miles instead of just eight miles.

QUADE: Because of the constant threat on the roads, the only contact the Froehlich's have with each other is email. Bases in Tikrit are routinely targeted. At Erik's they scrambled for cover after a mortar landed during a ceremony in November.

Tikrit is Saddam Hussein's hometown. U.S. troops have taken over his palaces, one of which Erik lives and works in.

(on camera): How difficult is it being apart?

E. FROEHLICH: Well, it's very difficult. Being apart. And being newlyweds and being very much in love, she's always on my mind. I always think about her.

QUADE: Is there more threat at the location that she's at, more danger?

E. FROEHLICH: They actually had an incoming mortar attack there, and my immediate thought, of course, was, well, she is she OK? Is everything all right? And unfortunately, I can't call her. You know, you hop on email and you say, "hey is everything okay? Are you all right over there?" And then you just kind of wait to hear back.

QUADE (voice-over): At Juliann's base, her job is to help morale by giving troops access to email, something the couple says, she could probably do at his base, so I asked her company, KBR, and in a spokesperson email, "KBR hires people to serve the defined needs of the client throughout the project. Our employees go where there are job assignments that match their qualifications which is how Mrs. Froehlich was assigned her current job. Further," the spokesperson added, "both the U.S. military and KBR have policies prevent fraternization."

E. FROEHLICH: Were it back home, eight miles would be nothing more than a quick trip in the car or maybe even a nice long jog. Here, it might as well be 1,000 miles away.

QUADE: We asked the military if the rules might allow a single visit. We fly to Juliann's base by helicopter. It is a very short trip. We land.

J. FROEHLICH: I made it all the way over to Iraq. E. FROEHLICH: All the way to Iraq.

J. FROEHLICH: Yeah.

QUADE: Love, in a time of war. Alex Quade, CNN, Tikrit, Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: Well, every day we see images of violence from Iraq, but is that the true picture of what's going on throughout the country? Up next, military analyst Ken Robinson answers your questions on the situation in Iraq.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: On this third anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, many are asking, is it worth it? Is Iraq better off? Joining us from our Washington, D.C. bureau is our military expert, Ken Robinson, he has got a great perspective given his military experience, 20 year veteran of the army and a former military intelligence officer who is familiar with that situation in Iraq. Good to have you, Ken.

KEN ROBINSON, CNN MILITARY EXPERT: Hi, Carol.

LIN: I wonder if you could answer those questions from your perspective and your experience, is the world better off now that the U.S. has occupied Iraq? Are we safer?

ROBINSON: I think the question is too complex to answer with one pat answer, Carol. I think the fair answer is certainly Saddam being gone is not a bad thing. But the law of unintended consequences of all of the terrorists and jihadists that have now come to Iraq and are now confronting the West is not a good thing, because it's clear this battle is a long war that's going to last probably 50 years, if it lasts a day.

LIN: Right.

ROBINSON: So in that regard, determining whether we're safer or less safe, I think the United States domestically is more prepared, but I don't think it's more safe.

LIN: We've gotten some really interesting questions from our viewers, and one that really struck me, because I don't know if there's evidence of this. S.J. from Richmond Virginia asks, is it true that the military is charging the troops for their food and for their ammunition?

ROBINSON: Well, the United States military issues its soldiers food and feeds them and issues them a meal card, but there are also situations where a soldier may be paid what's called separate rations.

LIN: Uh-huh.

ROBINSON: And if he is, he's given an additional amount of money allotted in his pay, so if he double dips, if he's being provided food and also being paid separate rations, they will collect that money back. So that's a complicated question.

LIN: Yeah. But in a sense, money in, money out, even in the field, on the battlefield. All right. This is from Sharon, is it true we count only those soldiers that are killed outright in Iraq and do not count those that die being die when being transported to hospital or en route to Germany or en route back to the United States? In other words, fudging the numbers?

ROBINSON: This is an area where veterans' groups and groups against the war have had a hard time with the Pentagon, because it is true that it's very hard sometimes to be able to get what the actual numbers are.

LIN: Uh-huh.

ROBINSON: Because if a soldier maybe expires from wounds at Walter Reed Army Medical Center, he won't necessarily be counted as killed in Iraq during a war, even though those wounds actually caused his death.

LIN: So the death count could be higher than what we have now?

ROBINSON: Yeah. It is not accurate the way they number crunch it, Congress is paying attention to it, the Veterans' Administration is and there is a lot of dispute right now over how they count.

LIN: Right. All right. Number three, this is from Mr. Kelly, he says he's a former U.S. marine. He asks, in regards to the war on terror are, what is the best choice to resolving the manpower crisis the U.S. military now faces? Is it now time for a draft?

ROBINSON: Well, that's another toughie. The political environment for a draft will be a hard sell. It's really more important for the military and what they are really trying to work on is what we call retention. Keeping those that you've already paid for in terms of their training and expertise and providing them benefits that will entice them to remain on active duty.

After every war historically, there's a drain in manpower, because people go through this significant event, and they get out.

LIN: Right.

ROBINSON: And now the National Guard is being used in a way, and the reserves, that they've never been called on before, except back in World War II, and some in Korea. And so there is a drain on that. The army's focusing right now on retention as its main goal, and even though recruiting is down right now, they are not at a stage where they feel they have to have a discussion about a draft, even though there are plans to do a draft.

LIN: But we've had reports of a 60-year-old returning to the battlefield, you know, national guardsman who are suing to not yet do another tour of duty because they left their guard duty and entered civilian life, so this is a big question for the military. ROBINSON: It really is. In the First Gulf War I was in as a soldier, and in a foxhole with me was a man that was probably 57 to 60 years old, and I said to myself at that time, gosh I, hope that's not me one day.

LIN: Right.

ROBINSON: Because I did see that they weren't very happy to be there, and it was not the fact that they don't want to serve their country, it's the fact that at that time in their life with their family and everything else, it's a tough thing to face.

LIN: Ken, I want to throw something back at you. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld made a very pointed op-ed piece in the "Washington Post." And he said, look at the things we can point to, you had two historic elections in Iraq with record turnout, and you have Saddam Hussein now on trial for their war crimes. And you have Iraqis with all their heart and soul, want to lay claim to their country.

He says that that is tangible progress. Your point of view?

ROBINSON: Well, that's true, that there is progress, but with that progress is an enormously high cost, politically, domestically for the president right now. But, more importantly, in the region, because the presence there has really set into play a law of unintended consequences. There are dangerous moves afoot right now, because thee jihadists are going to continue to confront us, and their decision has been to make the united states die a death of a thousand cuts.

These improved explosive devices that they use, which we are now having to spend $1.35 billion to defend soldiers against. It's a very tough war of attrition that's going to occur and the United States and its exit strategy can only depend on one thing and that's Iraqis being able to defend themselves, and we are just seeing the beginning stages of that, there's no telling how fast that will go.

LIN: All right. Ken Robinson. Thank you so much for answering our viewers' questions. Appreciate your time.

ROBINSON: Thanks, Carol.

LIN: Well, depending on your point of view, our next story could be a blessing or a curse.

Coming up, pinging. And why tracking your every move is now as simple as answering your cell phone.

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LIN: We have news of the election results in Belarus, which is a former Soviet satellite company. Country, rather. Incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko has won that election. Critics are saying that he is an authoritarian leader who has ruled this ex-Soviet Republic since 1994. The opposition candidate is calling for protests and this news of this election result, not likely to make Washington happy. Washington calls Belarus an outpost of tyranny in Europe.

In this week's "The Leading Edge," cell phones are great for keeping in touch with loved ones and friends, but they are also great for tracking you. Our technology correspondent Daniel Sieberg takes a look at this brewing legal controversy.

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DANIEL SIEBERG, CNN TECHNOLOGY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Consider your cell phone your own personal tracking device, like it or not.

BRUCE SCHNEIER, SECURITY EXPERT, COUNTERPANE: The cell phone network is tracking you whenever your phone is on, whether there's a human being receiving some data, saying where your phone is you have no idea, because the phone company has that data and it's what they are doing with it afterwards.

SIEBERG: Authorities must have a court's permission to track anyone through cell phone locations, but once that access is granted, it's nearly foolproof.

(on camera): So how exactly does it work? Well, here's the easiest way to think of cell phone tracking. In order to make or receive a call on your cell phone, your wireless provider has to know where you are. You see this flashing little light up here? You can think of that as your personal locator beacon. In a sense, it's communicating with the cell towers that are all around you all the time as you move around. And they can find you a few different ways.

SCHNEIER: Well, the cell phone always has to know what cell it's in, otherwise it can't send phone calls. Your average phone, when it's walking around, is in view of two or three different cells. And what the phone company can do. And this is very easy, to compare relative signal strengths and figure out where the phone is, probably to a couple hundred feet. They triangulate from the radio signal. The third thing is satellite positioning system, and phones that are equipped with that system can be pinpointed within a few feet.

SIEBERG: It's that ability to be so exact that's made it such an invaluable tool for law enforcement. Follow last year's failed suicide bombings in London, British investigators used cell phone tracking to find a suspect who had fled to Italy.

LARRY KING, CNN HOST: Simpson, the passenger in the car, has a gun at his head.

SIEBERG: It was used to track O.J. Simpson's car phone while he was avoiding the police on the L.A. freeways. And it was used back in 1993, when police shot and killed drug lord Pablo Escobar in Colombia.

But as productive as cell phone tracking can be, privacy advocates are concerned about how all this data is accessed.

KEVIN BANKSTON, ELECTRONIC FREEDOM FOUNDATION: I think there is a substantial worry that location information about cell phone users is being released without a court order.

This is actually an open legal controversy.

SIEBERG (on camera): If you don't like the idea of being tracked with your cell phone, well, you really only have a few choices. If you use Verizon or Sprint phones in some cases you can set the GPS chip so it only works when you use 911. If you use Cingular or T- Mobile, you're out of luck, because they use the triangulation system or you can just turn your phone off.

Daniel Sieberg, CNN, Atlanta.

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LIN: There's still much more ahead on CNN. Up next, "CNN PRESENTS: We Were Warned: Tomorrow's Oil Crisis." We examine the nation's addiction to oil, and whether American can handle a system that many are saying is at a breaking point.

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