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American Morning

Bush War Strategy; Gay Adoptions; Nightmare Scenario

Aired March 22, 2006 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Forecasters say it's not a matter of if, but a matter of when a big hurricane hits New York. Hits the northeast.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, well, that would kind of figure, wouldn't it, that . . .

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: You would imagine. Although here, growing up in the northeast, you never really think about, you know, hurricane season.

ROBERTS: There's been a couple of hurricanes came through, but I think, you know, they've done some new modeling, some new simulations of what a major hurricane hitting New York City would look like.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: And that's the simulation right there and it's not a good picture.

ROBERTS: No, not a good picture at all.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: We'll talk about that coming up this morning.

First, though, Carol is back with the news.

Hey, Carol.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

Good morning to all of you.

Wisconsin authorities say two missing boys may have been abducted. They're not ruling out that option. The boys, one 12- years-old, the other 11, were last seen Sunday playing outside. Relatives say Quadrevion Henning and Purvis Parker would never run away. Anyone with information is asked to call the police.

Testimony in the Zacarias Moussaoui trial focusing on the FBI. Jurors heard Tuesday from the highest ranking FBI official so far. He said he was in the dark on Moussaoui, had no idea that a field officer suspected Moussaoui of plotting against U.S. airliners. The first aviation witness could take the stand in the trial today. We'll keep you posted.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff wants better protection for U.S. chemical plants, but his plan would let the industry decide on its own protections and leave inspections to private auditors. Secretary Chertoff says the plan is flexible. Critics call it a toothless fix.

And public colleges feeling the pinch. State and local funding for higher education has fallen to a 25-year low. Just five years ago funding was at an all-time high. A new report blames stagnant budgets and exploding demand. A report being released today by the State Higher Education Executive Officers.

That's a look at the headlines this morning. Back to you, John.

ROBERTS: Thank you, Carol.

President Bush understands the public jitters about his Iraq policy, but he insists that staying the course is the right course for Iraq as long as there are some adjustments along the way. The president takes his message to Wheeling, West Virginia, today for yet another speech to drum up support for his Iraq policy. Joining us now to talk more about this from Washington, CNN Political Contributor James Carville and former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie.

Gentlemen, you're both aware that yesterday the president, during his press conference, denied that Iraq was in a civil war, but he did seem to talk a lot more realistically about what the situation on the ground is. Let's take a quick listen to some of what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Terrorists haven't given up. They're tough-minded. They like to kill. There's going to be more tough fighting ahead. No question that sectarian violence must be confronted by the Iraqi government and a better trained police force. Yet we're making progress and that's important for the American people to understand.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: Now all of this, of course, is designed to try to turn around what seemed to be pretty bad poll numbers on Iraq for President Bush.

Ed Gillespie, is this a strategy that can work?

ED GILLESPIE, FORMER RNC CHAIRMAN: It is, John. And, in fact, it's working. We have to be victorious in Iraq. The Democrats call for immediate withdrawal that we heard from DNC Chairman Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi, the top Democrat in the House, and John Murtha, the most noted defense expert on the Democratic side in the House and a leader on that issue there.

Calling for immediate withdrawal would result in chaos, would result in a terrorist run government there. Most likely there would be a danger not only to the people in Iraq and its neighbors, but to the United States. The president is right in this strategy of clear, hold and build that we've seen in Tal Afar and other places is working and will result in a unified, stable Iraqi government in the heart of the Middle East that won't be a threat to its neighbors or to the United States. ROBERTS: James Carville, some two-thirds of Americans in our latest CNN poll think that the Iraq War was a bad idea. It seems that the president's got some tough lifting here when it comes to turning that around.

JAMES CARVILLE, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Well, he's got some tough lifting. He's got to get, well, former Prime Minister Allawi, who is the U.S. favorite, on talking points because he says they are in the middle of a civil war. I have no idea whether they're in the middle of a civil war or not. I do know that the United States is in the middle of a disaster.

I think the president's press conference was very weird in the sense that it was in this kind of jocular, frat boy, tall snapping (ph) mood. And then during the press conference I think made enormous news by saying that the next president was going to have to deal with how to get our troops out of Iraq because they certainly weren't going to be out by November of 2008.

So now the new president's going to have to deal with trillions of dollars of debt that this president's left over. He's got to deal with hundreds of thousands of troops in Iraq and growing income inequality. I mean I think the president needs to get in touch with what's going on in Iraq and the country and think of a way that we can do something to try to get our people out of here before 2008 because we're on the way to spending a trillion dollars in Iraq.

ROBERTS: Well, the White House is claiming that the president's statement that future presidents will have decide if and when the last troop ever comes out of Iraq was a little bit overplayed, but Democrats certainly were quick to seize upon it. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid jumped right on that saying, "three years into the war in Iraq, with that country now experiencing a low-grade civil war, it has become increasingly clear that President Bush is content with an open-ended commitment with no end in sight for our U.S. troops and taxpayers."

Ed Gillespie, is that an accurate assessment of the president's strategy?

GILLESPIE: It's not an accurate assessment. The fact is, what the president has said is, we will bring our troops home from Iraq when we are victorious in Iraq and there is a stable government there in the heart of the Middle East, unlike Democratic leaders, as I said, who want an immediate withdrawal. There's a very clear difference in approach here when it comes to Iraq policy that is emerging in this election.

I want to make one point to your point about the civil war that James claimed. It's not only President Bush who said that that's not the case. President Talabani said the same thing. We've seen the Iraq army remained intact throughout the sectarian violence there and the government remain intact and we are making progress toward a self- governing Iraq and that unified government has been strong in responding to the sectarian violence. ROBERTS: We should also point out as well as in fairness, Ed Gillespie, that Ayad Allawi, in an interview with CNN's Nic Robertson today, kind of backed off on his declaration that Iraq was in a civil war. He said there's sectarian violence which is a factor in a civil war. Not quite sure what he meant by all of that.

But, Ed Gillespie, what else does the president need to do besides speak out on Iraq to try to get his numbers turned around? Because the numbers aren't bad just on Iraq, they're bad on the economy and even on terrorism.

GILLESPIE: Well, I think continuing to do the things that are necessary to keep us safe as a country. He made a very clear point yesterday about the surveillance of al Qaeda operatives and others into the United States and the need to intercept that communications. There is a difference there as well. Democrats oppose that program. That is one of the programs that has helped keep us safe since September 11th.

I think the president laid out a very positive agenda. Doing things lying like allowing for small businesses to come together and form risk pools to make health care more affordable. Doing things like making our tax relief permanent so that we continue to create jobs.

We've seen 30 million new jobs created over the past two and a half years in our economy. Unemployment, 4.8 percent. Personal income growth up. And if we don't do that, as Democrats oppose making tax relief permanent, we're going to hurt that job creation. That's the wrong policy for this country and the president should continue to make those points.

ROBERTS: The president also played a familiar tactic yesterday, blaming the media, to some degree, for the situation, at least the perception of what's going on in Iraq. Let's take a listen to what he said on that front yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Please don't take that as criticism, but it also is a realistic assessment of the enemy's capability to affect the debate and they know that. They're capable of blowing up innocent lives so it ends up on your TV show.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: All right, really quickly, James Carville, in general, does the president have a point?

CARVILLE: Oh, yesterday, that's the whole right wing blabber. Somebody called Mr. Woodruff's wife and tell her that these reporters are not out there or David Bloom who was killed with NBC News. There have been 80 something journalists killed in this war.

You know, what they need to do is, they're in the middle of what Martin van Clever (ph), the foremost military thinker in the world today said is the greatest strategic blunder since the Emperor Caesar Augustus invasion Germany back in 9 B.C. And what they need to do is accept responsibility for their own mistakes, accept responsibility for the fact they didn't have the right plan and quit trying to blame the media or blame everybody for their incompetence and ineptness in dealing with this war and sit down and get people together and put us on a plan that's going to get our people out of there sometime before the next three or four years.

ROBERTS: Gentlemen, I . . .

GILLESPIE: This is not a matter of blaming the media. Look, the fact is, there's an old action (ph) that no news is good news. There's a flip side to that, which is, good news is no news. And the coverage out of Iraq is of the violence. And it's a natural phenomenon, but it is a phenomenon.

ROBERTS: Gentlemen, I would love to keep on talking about this because there's so many other questions that we could go into, but, unfortunately, we just don't have the time this morning. James Carville, Ed Gillespie, thanks for being with us. Always appreciate it.

CARVILLE: Thank you.

GILLESPIE: Thanks, John.

ROBERTS: Soledad.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Well, a catholic social services agency in Boston say no more adoptions to gay couples that issue more than 100 hard-to-place kids. Now one couple, successful in adopting through Catholic Charities of Boston, is speaking out. AMERICAN MORNING's Dan Lothian has this story you'll see only on CNN.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): Jill Poirier and Deb Soly adopted three-year-old Joshua when he was 13 months old. Catholic Charities of Boston helped the same sex couple facilitate their dream.

DEB SOLY, MOTHER: We just felt like we were a couple looking for a child like any other couple and we had no problems.

LOTHIAN: But now the same catholic agency says the practice of placing children with gay couples, like Poirier and Soly, is wrong. And rather than bow to state laws on this issue, the agency is getting out of the adoption business altogether.

BRIAN HEHIR, CATHOLIC CHARITIES: Given the catholic teaching on marriage and family, it is judged to be inappropriate for catholic agencies to be facilitating adoptions to gay couples.

LOTHIAN: Poirier, a kindergarten teacher, and Soly, a cost analyst, are shocked and angered by the sudden reversal. JILL POIRIER, MOTHER: And now you're saying that, you know, that these kids who are adopted into our family, that now we're not adequate, we're not good enough to raise them? I mean there's more children than they can place right now.

LOTHIAN: They fear this decision will end up hurting children like their son who has special needs and comes from a troubled past.

POIRIER: Pretty much what came out in my mind was, these kids have enough hurdles to overcome.

SOLY: Honestly, I mean, what's better for them, to be in a foster home where they're not -- have that loving relationship that we have with Joshua, or to find two parents, who cares if they're straight, gay or even single.

LOTHIAN: The catholic charities program has been around for more than a hundred years. It has placed more than 700 children. Only 13 of those went into same sex homes. But recently there had been pressure from church leaders and a dilemma over gay adoptions which church officials say was in conflict with their faith and could not be resolved.

HEHIR: The religious moral principles of catholic teaching and practice clash with the political and civil regulations of the state.

LOTHIAN: Governor Mitt Romney has proposed a bill that would allow the agency to block gay adoptions while meeting the needs of heterosexual couples.

SOLY: It angers me . . .

LOTHIAN: But these women say that's only another attempt to discriminate against same sex couples who have so much to give.

Dan Lothian, CNN, Boston.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: The agency says it will cease all adoption operations by the end of June. Officials say they will clear all placements by that deadline so no one will be denied.

Time to check on the weather. Reynolds Wolf is at the CNN Center with the latest update for us. He is in for Chad this morning.

Hey, Reynolds. Good morning.

(WEATHER REPORT)

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Well, you know, when it comes to a hurricane hitting New York City, experts say it's not a question of if, but a question of when. Coming up, we're going to take a look at what could be the potential nightmare scenario. That's part of it right there. You're looking at it. ROBERTS: Also, important advice if you're worried about the housing bubble bursting. We'll talk with a real estate expert about whether now is the time to sell or maybe even start renting for a while.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: And if you, like poor Kyle (ph), John's son, have been searching all over for a XBox 360, some good news, some very good news, Kyle. It's coming. We're "Minding Your Business" just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: How do you ask Marcel Marceau to tell you how old he is?

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: What is he 70.

CARRIE LEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I've never heard that song before. I don't know what that was.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: No? From "Westside Story."

ROBERTS: "Westside Story." Hello!

LEE: OK. I just . . .

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Oh, it's OK. We're going to rent it for you this weekend.

ROBERTS: Come on. You didn't see the articles about . . .

LEE: Belate (ph) my ignorance on national television.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: That's all right. That's all right.

ROBERTS: Hale's (ph) Kitchen and New York City now, you know, gentrifying? It's not the same way it was during "Westside Story."

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: It's all changed. It's a great -- you should rent it.

ROBERTS: Oh, boy.

LEE: I know the story, I didn't know the song. So we learn something new every day.

ROBERTS: But you live in Brooklyn. You live in Brooklyn, right? So you don't know Manhattan.

LEE: Give it all away. All right.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Let's talk about Microsoft. Something you know a lot about, Microsoft and this delay and security issues is a problem, right?

LEE: Operating system, Vista. A lot of people waiting for this. Well, they're going to have to wait longer because Vista, which is something a lot of people waiting for, businesses and consumers, pushing the consumer version back to January of 2007. Big business will still get their version in November, but, obviously, this is a big negative for Microsoft, as well as a lot of PC-related companies like chip companies, hardware, and that is the reason tech stocks are looking much lower for this morning. Basically Microsoft wants to still work on some security issues and some other things with Vista, so people are going to have to wait a little bit longer.

What's interesting is that the Windows unit of Microsoft has always been focusing more on engineering skills, not the management and now they have a bit of a management shake-up because it looks like they want to get things more in line. You know, more timely outputting of products. Looks like they need it.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: These kind of announcements are bad.

LEE: Yes.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: PR wise.

LEE: This is the second one for Vista. So they're having a management shake-up as well to have more discipline.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: What's Vista going to be? What's Vista?

LEE: Well, you know, I think this is going to be the biggest operating system change since 2001. The first one since 2001. The biggest one since Windows 95.

Think about the way that technology has changed over the recent years. We have so many multimedia aspects. Things like that, music. So it's just going to incorporate all of those things we've become more familiar with.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: And security concerns are the big issue.

LEE: Yes. Yes.

Also, we talked about XBox earlier. Ramping up the production of that so that they're going to double or triple the XBoxes per week that retailers receive. Good news there. Also they're rolling out some more games. So they expect to have 50 XBox 360 games by June, versus about 26 now. And good news for gamers out there.

ROBERTS: A lot of young people will be happy to hear about that.

LEE: Exactly.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Yes, that was the segment earlier where we talked about how John neglected to get his son, Kyle, an XBox for Christmas that was promised. Was that it?

ROBERTS: It wasn't my deal, it was his grandparents. Come on.

LEE: No excuse now. ROBERTS: I had nothing to do with that. I bought him a chemistry textbook (ph).

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Thanks.

LEE: All right.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: If you are worried about the housing bubble bursting, sell, sell, sell, it's a sellers market. We've got some tips on how you can get your money out of the market right now.

Plus, the (INAUDIBLE). What are the odds of a monster hurricane hitting New York City? Believe it or not, it's kind of high if you ask the experts. We're going to take a look at the nightmare scenario coming up next on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: People on the Gulf in southeastern coasts of the United States dread the pending arrival of hurricane season, but the northeast isn't exactly safe harbor. Some people say for New York City it's not a question of if, but when, a major hurricane strikes. Rob Marciano takes a look at that frightening possibility.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROB MARCIANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): Here's what you need to know about hurricanes in New York City. It's all about geography. Manhattan sits at an angle, which can allow water to accumulate. It's surrounded by two rivers and a harbor. Together, they can form a funnel, which would push a possible 12-foot storm surge onto land. A possibility feature film makers couldn't resist.

It has been the subject of science fiction films and of some speculation by weather experts and emergency management officials. What would happen if New York City was hit by a major hurricane? Well, now, some forecasters say it's not a question of if, but when. And it could happen soon. Dr. Bill Gray specializes in predicting hurricanes.

DR. WILLIAM GRAY, HURRICANE FORECASTER: The odds are almost twice as high this year as in the long-term average year.

MARCIANO: Meteorologically speaking, conditions are certainly right for a significant northeast storm. Since 1995, we've seen a lot more hurricane activity. Add to that above normal water temperatures and ideal pressure systems and it's the perfect mix for a major Atlantic storm.

WILLIAM VORLICEK, THE KROLL GROUP: We have to realize that probability does exist. That hurricanes do occur. They occur a certain time during the year. And we are in the hurricane path.

MARCIANO: The last big one to hit New York was the Hurricane of 1938, back before hurricanes had names. With winds of 120-mile-per- hour and a massive storm surge, it killed hundreds in the northeast. This map, based on information from New York City's Office of Emergency Management, shows how badly inundated Manhattan Island would be by a category four storm. Lower Manhattan could be covered by 20 to 30 feet of water. Chelsea and Greenwich Village would flood with waters from the Hudson River spilling well into the center of the island. The East River would take over the East Village.

And what about the wind? Wind speeds go up as you go higher. And that might not bode well for the city skyscrapers.

Then there's the challenge of moving 1.5 million people off an island. Not just people, but naturally skeptical New Yorkers.

VORLICEK: When do you pull the trigger to say, time to evacuate? That's a tough decision. And in New York you have the attitude, and I'm a New Yorker, the attitude is, you know what, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, we hear this all the time.

MARCIANO: On the plus side, New York has a short peak hurricane season from about August through October. But all it takes are the right conditions coming together on the right day. And the results could be devastating.

Rob Marciano, CNN, reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTS: This year, experts say, the northeast has doubled the usual chance of a hurricane strike. Rob's report, by the way, first aired on "Anderson Cooper 360," which you can catch week nights at 10:00 Eastern right here on CNN.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: A look at our top stories are ahead this morning, including this.

Insurgents attack an Iraqi police station killing three officers and a police commando.

Hundreds of people evacuated after a fire breaks out in a Tokyo theater.

Prosecutors drop charges against a Florida teacher accused of having sex with her 14-year-old student.

Rescuers save a family that disappeared more than two weeks ago in the Oregon mountains.

And severe storms dump more snow on the Midwest. The latest forecast all ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Good morning. I'm Soledad O'Brien.

ROBERTS: And I'm John Roberts, in this week for Miles O'Brien. SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Insurgents follow-up a coordinated attack on Tuesday with more today. The target once again the Iraqi police. We're live in Baghdad with the very latest on this story.

Also, President Bush takes his message on Iraq on the road. Will his most recent push have any effect on public opinion.

ROBERTS: Finally found. Rescuers find a Oregon family who were stuck in the snow for more than two weeks.

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