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American Morning

New Levee Problems; New Orleans Election; Cold Hard Cash

Aired May 22, 2006 - 08:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SEAN CALLEBS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning. I'm Sean Callebs. A staggering amount of flooding and suffering in New Orleans last year could have been avoided. A new study tells us exactly how. I'll have that story coming up.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: And I'm Chad Myers. Alberto will be our first hurricane name of the season. Will we get to Patty? Will we get to Sandy, Tony, Valerie? The hurricane center will let us know that in a couple of hours.

SUSAN ROESGEN, CNN GULF COAST CORRESPONDENT: I'm Susan Roesgen. The race for New Orleans mayor was a nail-biter. How Mayor Nagin won reelection and what he plans to do next, coming up.

DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm Dana Bash on Capitol Hill, where a Democratic congressman was found with nearly $100,000 in his freezer. More details on that corruption charge and how this will potentially affect the midterm elections coming up.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome back, everybody. I'm Soledad O'Brien.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Miles O'Brien. Thanks for being with us.

There's a new study out this morning, and it's talking about the New Orleans levees. And it paints a picture that is somewhat scandalous, quite frankly. Design flaws, political bickering, it all added up to deadly trouble when Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast at the end of August last year.

CNN's Sean Callebs joining us live now from New Orleans with more on all this.

Good morning, Sean.

CALLEBS: Good morning, Miles.

I was down here with you last year right after the storm. The residents who went through it, they're not going to be happy when they hear the results of this study that's coming out in just a couple of hours. An enormous amount of the flooding and subsequent suffering could have been avoided.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CALLEBS (voice over): Katrina was a powerful storm. But it shouldn't have caused so much devastation. Eighty percent of the flooding that destroyed New Orleans could have been prevented. That's according to a eight-month study by the National Science Foundation.

PROF. ROBERT BEA, U.C. BERKLEY ENGINEERING: That's the essence of the story, is to say that undesirable, unanticipated breaching in the levees is what brought us to our knees.

CALLEBS: Bob Bea, a Cal Berkley researcher, is one of the authors of the study. During Katrina, almost all the water that poured into the heart of New Orleans was driven south, down canals leading from Lake Pontchartrain. Scientists say the reason flood walls and levees gave way is simple.

BEA: Well, we were trying to do this in a cheap save, save money.

CALLEBS: We now know a design flaw by the Army Corps of Engineers allowed raging water to eat away soil far below the water line. The corps had drilled sheet piling 17.5 feet into the ground to guard against erosion. Scientists say it wasn't nearly deep enough.

BEA: Today we're driving them to deeper than 60 feet.

CALLEBS: The Army Corps of Engineers says it won't comment on the study until it's read the entire document. Even with poor levee design, massive floodgates now going up along Lake Pontchartrain would have provided tremendous defense against flooding, according to the report. But don't blame the corps for that. Scientists say years of quibbling, back and forth among local governments, killed floodgate plans.

BEA: Well, it's petty. We have been dysfunctional. We've forgotten really what the name of the game is, and that's to protect the public.

CALLEBS: The Lower Ninth Ward and St. Bernard Parish hit hardest by flooding, the study says, in large part, because the Army Corps used cheap, porous soil instead of more stable clay on earthen levees that eroded quickly. Bea knows firsthand of what he speaks. He lived in New Orleans in the 1960s and saw his home flooded by Hurricane Betsy.

So with the new flood protection plans going on, would he move back?

BEA: The answer is no. I wouldn't come back here and buy a house. I would come back here and rent a second floor apartment, which says I would proceed cautiously.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CALLEBS: And again, the result of that study, not only was this predictable, it was preventable. And Miles, I keep going back to the last point by Bob Bea. You know, this is a scientist who makes his living studying risk assessment. And when I asked him would he move here, he said not unless he was on a second floor apartment. It's not going to make the residents here feel more comfortable as this new hurricane season prepares to kick off.

M. O'BRIEN: Sean Callebs, of course the Corps of Engineers that's a part of all this construction is part of the upgrades that are under way. They, of course, promised to have the levees back to the pre-Katrina levels by June 1st. That's not going to happen. And, of course, they will be charged with any upgrades that come after that.

Is there much confidence in the corps at this point?

CALLEBS: You know, I asked the scientist, why should anybody trust them at this point? And the most -- the best answer I could get, because the world is watching.

These floodgates are going up out here, local government's watching, state government's watching, federal government's watching. But more importantly, the residents here. They're a lot more educated to what went wrong. They're looking at things, they're asking questions. People are going to pay attention this time.

M. O'BRIEN: Sean Callebs in New Orleans.

Thank you very much.

So, how confident are you in the government's ability to react to a big storm like Katrina? A new CNN poll is out this morning that shows 52 percent of Americans are confident that the government can handle the damage subsequent to a big disaster, 45 percent are not.

The National Hurricane Center will release its 2006 storm forecast later this morning, and our severe weather expert, Chad Myers, will be watching that one closely. He has a preview for us.

Hello, Chad.

MYERS: Hello, Miles.

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: Thanks, Chad.

MYERS: You're welcome.

S. O'BRIEN: Ray Nagin is going to be guiding New Orleans through another hurricane season. The mayor was re-elected this weekend by a razor-thin margin. Today he is back at work preparing for a next big storm and rebuilding those neighborhoods destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.

Let's get right to Gulf Coast Correspondent Susan Roesgen. She's live for us in New Orleans.

Hey, Susan. Good morning. ROESGEN: Good morning, Soledad. The mayor does have a very tall. He wants to get more housing for people in New Orleans who don't have housing. Tens of thousands of people haven't been able to come home because they haven't been able to fix up their homes and they have no place to live.

He also, as the business candidate, as the man who was the former cable executive here in New Orleans, wants to get businesses going again in New Orleans. And he does have to get the city ready for hurricane season. We're supposed to have a hurricane evacuation drill this week, and we're very interested in seeing how well that drill might go.

S. O'BRIEN: As everyone is. It will be interesting to see if he's able to pull it off.

You know, we talk about a thin margin, of course, Susan, but 5,400 voters. It's -- I mean, it's not a tiny margin. Does it give him a mandate, do you think? I mean, can he really move forward with what he has to do, which is essentially bring everybody together?

ROESGEN: No, I don't think it gives him a mandate. I think he needs to mend fences, because it was so close.

He needs to reach out to the Mitch Landrieu supporters and try to get them on board. It was a very close race, but political analysts say, Soledad, that the mayor was able to not only get his own base, the African-American base, but he very successfully reached out to conservative white voters. He convinced them that Mitch Landrieu was too liberal, and he positioned himself as the guy they should go for.

In fact, he said himself that he won this reelection with an unique coalition, in his words, of black folks and Republicans. So here you have two Democratic candidates, but the mayor was able to convince some conservative white voters that he was the more Republican of the two Democrats.

S. O'BRIEN: A strange race. All right.

Susan Roesgen for us this morning.

Susan, thanks.

S. O'BRIEN: Ninety thousand dollars in cold, hard cash, that's what FBI agents say they found in the freezer of Congressman William Jefferson's D.C. home. Jefferson's not been charged with any crime. Authorities say he is under investigation, though, for bribery.

CNN Congressional Correspondent Dana Bash live for us on Capitol Hill for us this morning.

Hey, Dana. Good morning. This is a strange turn of events, as they say.

BASH: Strange, to say the least. You know, the Democratic congressman has been under investigation for about 14 months now, but because of court documents released yesterday, we have some new, extraordinary details of the allegations.

First of all, the Louisiana Democrat was caught on tape by the FBI taking a briefcase with $100,000 in cash in it. Allegedly a bribe from a businesswoman who, it turns out, was an FBI informant.

Then, in a raid of his home last August, the FBI found $90,000 of that cash stuffed in the congressman's freezer, put in $10,000 increments into frozen food containers and some aluminum foil.

Now, all of that was part of a lengthy affidavit submitted to the court in order to get a search warrant of the eight-term congressman's Hill office. And that was conducted over the weekend. Another extraordinary event, and we believe an unprecedented event.

The FBI looking at the office of a sitting congressman. They went -- they got there at 7:00 Saturday night, stayed for 17 hours, Soledad, into the next day.

I should point out again, though, that the congressman has not been charged with anything. His lawyer and he both maintain his innocence. And the congressman's lawyer specifically says that he is upset about this affidavit, these details becoming public -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Yes. Yes, I would bet you would be.

Has the congressman said what the hundred grand or so has been doing in his freezer?

BASH: Not at all. I spoke with the congressman's lawyer, Robert Trout (ph), last night, tried to ask that very question, saying, "I know you won't go into details, but could you at least tell us why this $100,000 was allegedly caught in his freezer?" Wouldn't go there, no comment.

The only thing that they will say is that he maintains his innocence, and over and over says that he has not been charged. But there have been two businessmen who have pleaded guilty, Soledad, and allegedly are working with officials against the congressman.

S. O'BRIEN: It will be interesting to see the impact on the midterm elections in this one.

BASH: Absolutely.

S. O'BRIEN: Dana Bash for us this morning.

Thanks, Dana.

BASH: Thank you.

S. O'BRIEN: Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Another mine disaster over the weekend prompting an investigation with some haunting parallels to Sago. This morning, investigators in Kentucky focused on the emergency air supplies for three miners who died after a coal mine explosion apparently fueled by methane. The lone survivor of the Darby Mine disaster says his air supply lasted on five minutes.

CNN's Sumi Das is in Holmes Mill, Kentucky. That's in the southeastern corner of the state.

Sumi, I know you talked to one of the survivor's families. How did they learn about the ordeal? How did they find out about it?

SUMI DAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I spoke to Connie Ledford. She's the sister-in-law of Paul Ledford, the lone survivor. His nickname is Smiley. And as you might suspect, he got that nickname because he smiles all the time. His sister-in-law described him as being overly friendly.

She learned about the news probably very early on Saturday. The explosion happened around 1:00 a.m. in the morning.

We're getting some interesting information about Paul Ledford now. He says that, despite the fact that he's a third generation miner, he's 35 years old and he's worked in the mines for 16 years, he says he will never step foot in the mines ever again, although he plans to stay in this area. He has a home here. His family is here -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Sumi, tell us about the investigation. Getting into these mines, as we learned post-Sago, can be very difficult because of those same hazardous gases which caused the explosion. When do investigators think they'll be able to get inside?

DAS: Well, state and federal investigators expect to be able to begin their investigation today. Of course, they do have to determine that it's safe, as you mentioned.

There was some concern that there were still pockets of methane inside the mine. So they want to make sure that that's all been ventilated out, it's all been cleared out, that it's safe to go in and start this investigation. Of course, family members want to know what happened to their -- their friends, their family who died in this accident.

M. O'BRIEN: Sumi Das in eastern Kentucky.

Thank you very much.

We'll have more on that Kentucky mine explosion a little later. The head of the investigation into the Sago Mine tragedy will join us. He'll tell us why he's troubled by the similarities between the two accidents.

S. O'BRIEN: Yes, really similar, and both really based on coincidence, is what we've heard so far.

Also ahead this morning, new information on the connection between breast cancer and your weight. We'll tell you why it may have a bigger impact than first thought.

M. O'BRIEN: And the New Orleans mayor, Ray Nagin, has plenty of reason to celebrate. We'll look at how he pulled out a razor-thin reelection win.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAYOR RAY NAGIN (D), NEW ORLEANS: This is a great day for the city of New Orleans. This election is over. And it is time for this community to start the healing process.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

M. O'BRIEN: His Honor, Ray Nagin, still on the job in New Orleans for another four years, against all odds, or so it seemed to many of us. And after a wild roller-coaster ride to election day, Nagin will take the oath once again to be the mayor of New Orleans the day before hurricane season.

It kind of reminds me of that scene in "Animal House," "Thank you, sir, I'll have another."

Political columnist Clancy Dubos, owner of "The Gambit Weekly," joins us from New Orleans.

Clancy, always a pleasure having you drop by. Boy, a tough job.

CLANCY DUBOS, "THE GAMBIT WEEKLY": Thanks for having me, Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: It's a tough job. I wonder, you know, why anybody would volunteer. You weren't willing to do the job, were you?

DUBOS: To be mayor? No, no. I was one of the few maybe that wasn't asked.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes. Well, tell me, you actually predicted this would happen. How did you know?

DUBOS: Well, I think, first of all, history's on the side of our incumbent. The last time an incumbent mayor lost a bid for reelection was 1946. So that's a long time. And then, people in New Orleans, I think, are not that different than people anywhere else.

When you have an incumbent running for reelection after just one term, you have to give them a reason, a strong reason to get rid of that person. And I think Mitch Landrieu, while he was a very good candidate, failed to take that very first step, that all important step of telling people why we need to make a change.

He said a lot of good things about himself, all of which were true. And they were two very good candidates. But in the end, Landrieu failed to give people a compelling reason to make a change right now.

Nagin, on the other hand, even though he was outspent, ran a very good campaign, a very focused campaign. And he said, look, I've already gotten started, we've gotten some traction beneath our recovery. Let's not make a change now and lose any of our momentum. And people believed that.

M. O'BRIEN: Is it possible -- a lot has been said about how civil this campaign was. And when you're talking about New Orleans politics, that really is a news flash. A civil campaign.

DUBOS: It was kind of a yawner.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes. Was Mitch Landrieu too nice?

DUBOS: In the end, yes. I think it goes back to what I just said. He didn't give people a compelling reason to make a change.

Now, he didn't have to get ugly about it, but he at least needed to say, look, folks, this guy has messed up on this point, on that point, and these other points. Mitch didn't do that.

I think there was a little bit of hesitancy on his part because he comes from a liberal white family that has always been a champion of African-American rights and African-American causes, and didn't want to be the white guy picking on a black mayor, because he feared a backlash. In the end, he got the backlash anyway, because African- American voters voted for Ray Nagin in much larger numbers than they did in the primary. And, in fact, Landrieu's African-American crossover vote went down from the April 22nd primary to this past Saturday night. He actually got fewer black votes in the runoff than he got in the primary.

M. O'BRIEN: Let's -- let's throw up the slate just quickly here so we can show people here. Ray Nagin with 52 percent, Mitch Landrieu with 48 percent. Only 5,400 votes separating them.

I want to just throw in a quick little excerpt of Mitch Landrieu in his concession speech. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LT. GOV. MITCH LANDRIEU, LOST NEW ORLEANS MAYORAL RACE: Well, one thing is for sure, that we as a people have got to come together so that we can speak with one voice and one purpose. And I am asking you to join with me in supporting Mayor Nagin and his administration and the people of this city to get this city back again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

M. O'BRIEN: How likely is that to really happen, Clancy? Because what you have here in Mayor Ray Nagin is someone who really doesn't have a great relationship, at least if past performance is any indication, with the governor of this state. Is -- and that can -- that can lead to all kinds of problems, including the way the response to Hurricane Katrina was implemented.

Are they going to be able to patch that up and truly march forward here to improve that city? DUBOS: Well, you're hitting on the one point that really was telling to Ray Nagin. I think it is the one criticism of him that is extremely valid, and I think the mayor knows that. And if you listen to some of the comments he made after Landrieu made his concession, he said, I'm going to put together a committee to restructure my entire administration, and he promised to work more closely not only with the governor, but Ray Nagin hasn't really gotten along with any other elected officials.

He didn't get along with our legislative delegation, he didn't get along with the city council. He didn't get along with the governor.

So he really does need to do some healing. And I think -- I'm hoping, a lot of us are hoping that he's learned his lesson. Because he's a good guy, he's honest, he does have the city's best interest at heart, but he needs to learn the nuances of politics and learn how to basically play well with others a little better.

M. O'BRIEN: Is it likely -- when you say learned his lesson, is it likely he'll be a little more consistent? I mean, we have seen him go all over the place from initially after the storm reports that he had a moved to a house in Dallas, to the "chocolate city" comments, and a lot of stuff in between there that seemed to show at best political naivete.

Has he learned?

DUBOS: That is the million-dollar question, Miles. A lot of people in New Orleans are asking that. Yesterday, I was in the grocery store, and every time I walked 10 feet, somebody was asking me that same question, "Is Ray Nagin going to learn?"

There's no way to tell. I think there is a certain amount of naivete. But it -- I'll give the guy the benefit of the doubt. I think it comes from a good place. I think he's very sincere.

I tell people the story of myself. When I was in high school, I didn't really like math, so I didn't apply myself at math, and I didn't do well. Ray Nagin doesn't really like politics. He likes being mayor, but he doesn't like politics.

I think he really needs to get the fact that being a mayor of any major American city is about 80 percent politics. So he's got to throw himself into this. He's got to apply himself at the -- at the game, if you will, of politics and learn how to make the system work so that the city can progress. If he surrounds himself with a better crew of people -- I don't mean that they were bad people. They just weren't that skilled at politics, just like he was -- if he can do that, and if he can learn to listen to the advice of people who do know more about this than he does, I think he'll do a fine job in his second term.

M. O'BRIEN: Clancy Dubos, who is the owner of "The Gambit Weekly". That's a newspaper in New Orleans.

Thanks for being with us, as always.

DUBOS: Thank you.

M. O'BRIEN: Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Ahead this morning, why are you more likely to get breast cancer if you're overweight? Elizabeth Cohen will join us with a "House Call" just ahead.

Plus, one of Saddam Hussein's lawyers tossed out of court over what she did with her robe. We'll explain just ahead.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: "House Call" this morning, obesity and breast cancer. If you're a woman and you've gained a lot of weight lately, well, you're more likely, a lot more likely to get breast cancer.

Elizabeth Cohen is at the CNN Center with more.

Good morning to you, Elizabeth.

This is a new study. What did they show?

ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

What they found is that if women want to keep from getting breast cancer, one of the best things they can do is not gain weight over the course of a lifetime. The study looked at 44,000 women, a huge study. And it looked at postmenopausal women to see who was getting breast cancer and who wasn't. And here's what they found.

What they saw of these 44,000 women is that a 60-pound-plus weight gain after age 18, which sounds like a lot, but unfortunately a lot of people do that, triples the risk for breast cancer. And unfortunately, especially for some of the most aggressive tumors.

Now, this is a message that a lot of people need to hear. Sixty- eight percent of women age 65 and over are overweight. And it's not weight gain that they do all in one year or even in 10 years. We are talking about the ages 18 and 65. Women often tend to gain a lot of weight during that time.

Now, other studies have looked at the other side of this and shown some of the good news here, which is that if you're physically active, that can help reduce your risk of getting breast cancer by quite a bit. Studies have shown that physically active women have a 40 percent lower risk of getting breast cancer. And, in fact, just one 30-minute walk a day can lower your risk by 20 percent.

So the message here is very clear: stay active and try not to do the weight gain that many women do after the age of 18 -- Soledad. S. O'BRIEN: Is the correlation essential, Elizabeth? If you're overweight, there's a good chance you're also not taking care of your health? Is that the correlation?

COHEN: No. The correlation actually is a bit more scientific than that.

What it is, is that -- is that breast cancer tumors thrive on estrogen. They basically live off of estrogen. And estrogen is produced by fat. So the more fat you have, the more circulating estrogen there is in your body. So that's a basic premise of why overweight women tend to get more breast cancer.

S. O'BRIEN: Elizabeth Cohen, medical correspondent, joining us from the CNN Center.

Elizabeth, thanks.

COHEN: Thanks.

S. O'BRIEN: That's kind of a scary study -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Coming up, so how do you convince people to prepare for hurricane season? You would think the experience of last hurricane season would be enough, but you know how people are. They procrastinate.

One state, Florida, has a little plan. They're offering some incentive for you to go out and get that generator today.

Plus, Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro back on his hooves after a six-hour surgery. Not out of the woods, by any stretch yet. We'll have an update on his condition ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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