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The Situation Room
House Leaders Call for FBI to Return Seized Documents; Senate Nears Passage of Immigration Bill; Bush Visits Nuclear Plant to Pitch Energy Plan; Bush, Blair to Meet Tomorrow; Bin Laden Denies Moussaoui Link to 9/11; Divisions In Republican Party
Aired May 24, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, ANCHOR: Thanks very much, Susan.
And to our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now, new showdowns over the bribery investigation of a United States congressman. It's 4 p.m. here in Washington where a top Republican is demanding seized documents be returned. And a top Democrat is demanding a resignation.
Also this hour, the Senate is on the brink of passing immigration reform, and presidential adviser Karl Rove is trying to head off a bitter fight with fellow Republicans. Does he have a shot of bringing warring Republicans together?
And Al Gore, the movie. The plot thickens: is the former vice president using his new film to warn the world about global warming, or to launch another presidential campaign.
I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're THE SITUATION ROOM.
It could be a constitutional showdown in the making right now. The House speaker, Dennis Hastert, demanding that the FBI give up documents seized in a raid on Congressman William Jefferson's office. Members of both parties say the raid violates the separation of powers. Jefferson's lawyers also are taking action today to try to get the documents back.
The Louisiana Democrat is the target of a bribery investigation. And he's the target of his own party's leader in the House, who wants him to give up his spot on a very powerful committee.
Up first this hour, our congressional correspondent, Dana Bash, with the latest -- Dana.
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, what we have here today is a very rare event, and that is the Republican House speaker standing in unison on an issue with the House Democratic leader. They put out this statement, joint statement just a short while ago, as you said, saying that they want the Justice Department to return the materials seized in the raid over the weekend of Congressman William Jefferson's office. Why? They said in the statement, quote, "These constitutional principles were not designed by the Founding Fathers to place anyone above the law. Rather, they were designed to protect the Congress and the American people from abuses of power, and those principles deserve to be vigorously defended."
Now it's not unusual, of course, for Democrats to question the tactics of the Bush administration. But what we have here today is the top Republican in the House, essentially, raising, escalating a high six showdown legally and politically with the Bush administration.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. DENNIS HASTERT (R-IL), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: We say it ought to be returned. We also think that the -- those people who are involved in that issue ought to be frozen out of that, just for the sake of the constitutional aspect of it.
BASH: At issue is the FBI's weekend raid of Democrat William Jefferson's congressional office, which lawmakers in both parties believe crossed a constitutional line. Even the House speaker's former deputy, who has his own legal troubles, stepped into the fray.
REP. TOM DELAY (R), TEXAS: And the executive branch understands how dangerous it was and what a huge mistake it was. Return the documents.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you going to give the documents back?
BASH: Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty did not answer a question about the demand to return the seized material but continued to defend the raid.
PAUL MCNULTY, DEPUTY ATTORNEY GENERAL: The department has conducted similar searches in the past, including the chambers of federal judges and the private residences of members of Congress. And we believe our actions were lawful and necessary under these very unique circumstances.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BASH: Now, it's not just the political leaders here asking for the Justice Department to return these documents. We also have another development. That is, this motion, Wolf. A motion by Congressman Jefferson's attorney given to the D.C. court here, the judge who said OK to this search. Essentially saying the same thing, a motion to return these documents and actually tell the agents and prosecutors who have been involved to stop other things as well. But essentially saying the same thing, but in a more formal, legal way, Wolf.
BLITZER: On top of all of this, Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader, Dana, is asking that Jefferson give up his seat on the powerful ways and means committee. What's he saying in response? BASH: That's another fascinating subplot, if you will, going on here today. And that is, just as you said, the Democratic leader issuing a steaming rebuke, essentially of Congressman William Jefferson.
She said in a letter earlier to him today, quote, "In the interest of upholding the high ethical standard of the House Democratic Caucus, I'm writing to request your immediate resignation from the House Ways and Means Committee."
Well, it was really within minutes of that the congressman returned fire, returned with his own letter to Congresswomen Pelosi essentially saying no. He said, "I will not give up my committee assignment that is so vital to this -- to New Orleans at this crucial time for any uncertain long-term political strategy."
So the back and forth over the legality was one thing. But the other was this political drama going on within the Democratic Party. Democratic leaders making it very clear to Congressmen Jefferson they would be much happier if he were not serving at this time.
BLITZER: Dana Bash on the Hill. Thanks.
The Senate, meanwhile, is nearing passage of an immigration reform bill. Perhaps tonight, perhaps tomorrow. Members voted this morning to end debate on the measure. That clears the way for its final approval.
Now divided Republicans are bracing for the fight to try to reconcile the Senate version with a very, very different version in the House of Representatives.
Let's bring in our chief national correspondent, John King.
John, you're watching the drama on this. The stakes are enormous.
JOHN KING, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, we've been talking for weeks about this confrontation on the Republican Party. Now it's testing time. Will they have a compromise, or will they remain divided in this election years. We're about to find out. When the Senate passes its bill, they will go to conference, try to negotiate a compromise with the House. Can they get one? Well, the early indications are, probably not.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): For the second time in a week, deputy White House chief of staff Karl Rove visited House Republicans in search of a formula for compromise. And for the second time in a week, his upbeat assessment was not shared by most of those in the meeting.
DELAY: If the Senate or the president insists on an amnesty type path to citizenship, it's a nonstarter, and he won't get a bill.
KING: More proof of a party divided over both immigration policy and immigration politics. One side worries allowing those who broke the law to not only stay in the United States, but eventually get citizenship would infuriate grassroots conservatives critical to Republican chances this November.
NEIL NEWHOUSE, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: The anger is so strong, the frustration is so strong on this issue that, you know, I think perhaps the White House may have missed that kind of intensity.
KING: The other side things the bigger long-term risk is an anti-immigrant tone that drives away the growing Latino vote.
GROVER NORQUIST, CONSERVATIVE ACTIVIST: This is why George W. Bush's presidency is not only important to the country but important to the Republican Party in making sure that the Republican Party continues to get 40, 50 percent of the Hispanic vote.
KING: The president's plan to send National Guard troops to the border was one step toward the tougher approach favored by the House. And the Senate embraced a few more steps, including new fencing and other border security measures and tougher penalties on employers who hire illegal immigrants.
But the guest worker program, allowing those who entered the United States illegally to stay and get citizenship, remains the Republican fault line. The question now, whether a weakened president can somehow find a way to lead his divided party from confrontation to an immigration compromise.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: Now publicly, there are no indications such a compromise in the works. Both sides holding firm, Wolf. Privately, though, if you talk to people, they think this actually is possible on the House side.
The key question is, are there enough Republicans to support a guest worker program, maybe one that allows those illegal immigrants to stay but doesn't let them get citizenship, or at least doesn't let them get citizenship until they go back to their countries, at least for a short period of time?
A lot of people are talking privately about compromise proposals. No one is willing to put a compromise proposal on the table right now. They want to see the number of Republican votes in the final Senate version. Then they want to get into room and negotiate. Possible, yes. But it's going to be problematic.
BLITZER: In the past, the Republican leadership in the House has refused to let a vote come up, if there wasn't a majority of the majority, as they say. The majority of the Republicans onboard.
The going assessment is, if this was just an open vote, with most of the Democrats supporting something similar to what the Senate is about to approve and many Republicans supporting it, they would have the votes to approve it. The question is, does that principle of the majority of the majority still dominate, still control whether the speaker will allow this to come up?
KING: Yes, it does. The speaker has made clear to the White House and to his own Republican rank and file that is the rule. If a majority of Republicans support a compromise, they'll bring it to the floor. If a majority of Republicans do not, it won't happen.
BLITZER: Are those close to that majority, you think?
KING: It depends on what the guest worker program looks like. Are they there right now? No. Close, yes. But what is the exact proposal? No one will count, Roy Blount the whip won't count until he sees what the actual Senate proposal is. Then they go to work.
BLITZER: John King, thank you very much.
There also is some new developments today in the front lines of the immigration wars. The National Guard chief tells lawmakers that a first wave of about 800 troops will head to the U.S./Mexico border next week.
In Utah today, the Mexican president, Vicente Fox, weighed in on the immigration wars. He tells state lawmakers Mexico does not support illegal migration into the United States. And he said his country is trying to expand its economy so Mexicans don't need to seek work across the border.
Fox takes his message next to California, the state legislature. That would be tomorrow.
And we're going to have much more ahead on immigration. My interview with the former president, Jimmy Carter. That's coming up. Does he still believe the House border security bill is racist? We'll find out in the next hour, right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Also, some new fireworks today over the theft of that personal data of some 26 million military veterans. And even more sparks expected to fly tomorrow when a Senate committee put Veterans Affairs Secretary Jim Nicholson in the hot seat. Nicholson says he's ordered an investigation into why he and the public didn't learn about the theft until more than two weeks after it happened.
In a statement today, Nicholson says -- I'll read it to you -- "I am outraged at the loss of this veterans data and the fact that an employee would put it at risk by taking it home, in violation of our policies. Upon notification, my first priority was to take all actions necessary to protect veterans from harm."
But the Senate Democrat Patrick Leahy isn't satisfied with Nicholson's response. Leahy says, "It all adds up to a heck of a bad job for America's veterans. The president should call Nicholson into the woodshed for a serious shakeup in how the VA is run."
President Bush is in the key political battleground state of Pennsylvania right now. He's visiting a nuclear power plant and talking about America's energy crisis.
Our White House correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux, is traveling with the president. She's joining us now live -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, today is a bit about politics, as well as policy. President Bush, of course, focusing -- trying to push his energy plan here at the Limerick generating station. The two nuclear reactors behind me, of course, generating about electricity for two million homes.
And this is all about President Bush pushing forward nuclear energy as a safe, clean, cost effective alternative to other sources of energy, saying we've got to wean Americans off their addiction to foreign sources of oil.
Also, of course, the president facing a great deal of pressure, if you will, from the American people, who are looking at those gas prices, very high gas prices, saying what are you going to do? Clearly, his energy plan is not a short-term solution, but a long-term solution to push forward on nuclear energy.
Of course, the other part of this story is later today, he's going to be attending a Republican fundraiser, and this really is ground zero for this president and for the Republican Party when it comes to midterm elections. This president visited Pennsylvania more than any other state for his own reelection bid. But he still lost to Senator Kerry. The voters here are conservative, but they're also prone to switching parties.
And case in point here, midterm elections, those who are going to be vulnerable, No. 3 in the Senate leadership, of course, Senator Rick Santorum. The big question is whether or not those conservative Republicans are going to come out and support, if they're going to come out and vote. That is going to be a key test, whether or not both the House and Senate Republican majorities are maintained -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Suzanne, tell our viewers where you're standing right now. You're in front of two nuclear -- a nuclear power station in Pottstown, Pennsylvania?
MALVEAUX: That's right. This is the Limerick generating station, the facility here. These are two nuclear reactors behind me. They actually produce electricity for about two million homes in this state, New Jersey, as well as Maryland, about 20 percent overall, we are told, of the nation's power.
And President Bush is asking Congress, essentially for $250 million to invest in nuclear technology, in ways to improve on this. But this one of those sites, very impressive. He took a tour of it earlier today to make his point that he has a long-term solution, a long-term plan for the energy problem.
BLITZER: Suzanne Malveaux in Pottstown, Pennsylvania, thank you, Suzanne.
Suzanne and John King and Dana Bash, they're all part of the best political team on television. CNN, America's campaign headquarters. Collective confinement and fears of human-to-human infections. There are some new developments concerning bird flu out today. For the third day in a row in Romania, officials are placing hundreds of residents in Bucharest, the capital, in quarantine, where they'll stay for at least another week. They may have come into contact with birds infected with bird flu.
And in Indonesia, health officials are investigating possible cases of bird flu spreading from one prison (sic) to another. Bird flu has spread among at least seven people in one family. Six of them have died.
A short while ago, I asked Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases about these cases in Indonesia.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: It is likely that there was transmission from one person to another within that family cluster, if particularly, a father who was very close to a child, taking care of a child who was very seriously ill, and other members of the family, for example, who were sleeping in the same room together when one person was coughing very vehemently and was acutely ill. So it cannot be rules out, and it is likely that we do have limited human-to-human transmissibility within this family.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: All right, the next hour, my full interview with Dr. Fauci. That's coming up right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Let's bring in Jack Cafferty. He's standing by once again with "The Cafferty File."
Hi, Jack.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, Wolf.
Let's see now. Congress seems to think it's fine for the NSA to spy on all of us without any sort of a warrant whatsoever. But it's not OK for the FBI to conduct a raid on Congressman William Jefferson's office with a warrant after finding 90 grand in his freezer and after waiting weeks for him to comply with a subpoena to turn over evidence in an ongoing corruption investigation, evidence which he has refused so far to turn over.
Now, members of both parties are all worked up about this. They positively have their shorts in a knot over this. You see, they want the Capitol police to handle their stuff, you know, the same ones who failed to give Congressman Patrick Kennedy a breathalyzer after Kennedy crashed his car into a stationary barrier a couple of weeks ago. Instead, they just drove Kennedy home and said, "Good night, Congressman, and have a nice evening." You see, the Capitol police answer to Congress. The speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert even complained personally to President Bush about the raid on Congressman Jefferson's office. It's believed this was the first raid of a congressman's office in 219 years. Well, judging by the reaction on Capitol Hill, maybe the FBI ought to raid their offices more often. What is it do you suppose they're hiding in those offices?
Once again, Congress is demanding a different set of standards for themselves.
Here's the question. Should the FBI be able to search congressional offices? E-mail us at CaffertyFile@CNN.com. Or go to CNN.com/CaffertyFile.
I find it fascinating that the debate suddenly is about whether or not the FBI can search this guy's office. It's not about the videotape that allegedly shows him taking a $100,000 payoff or his refusal to comply with a subpoena to hand over evidence in an ongoing corruption investigation. The congress people, Republicans and Democrats are all afraid the FBI might want to look in their office. Unbelievable.
Anyway, send your thoughts -- Wolf.
BLITZER: You'll be bombarded, I'm sure, with a lot of comments, Jack. Thank you very much.
And to our viewers, if you want a sneak preview of Jack's questions, plus an early read on the day's political news and what's ahead here in THE SITUATION ROOM, you can sign up for our daily e-mail alert. Just go to CNN.com/SituationRoom, and that's what you do.
Coming up, a violent firefight in the West Bank between Israeli and Palestinian forces. The deadly details. That's coming up next.
Mideast peace, the war in Iraq and the crisis over Iran's nuclear program. All likely topics tomorrow when President Bush and the British prime minister, Tony Blair, team up. We'll go live to the White House for a preview.
Plus, Al Gore's new movie premiering tonight. The film gets Gore back in the game, but does he want it to get him back into the White House as a presidential candidate? We'll tell you. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Zain Verjee is off today. Fredricka Whitfield is joining us from the CNN global headquarters with a quick look at some other stories making news.
Hi, Fred.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hello to you, Wolf.
In Ramallah, four Palestinians are dead and 32 are hurt after an operation involving Israel defense forces. That's according to Palestinian security officials. Sources say it happened after gunfire broke out as the Israeli Defense Forces surrounded a house. The IDF says a force entered the West Bank city to arrest militants but ran into opposition, including people throwing stones. The IDF says one Israeli soldier was slightly hurt.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says Israel and the United States share unbreakable ties as allies in the war on terror. He addressed a joint meeting of Congress today and received several standing ovations. Olmert also talked about the difficulty of achieving peace with the new Hamas-led Palestinian government. And he called Iran, quote, "the world's leading sponsor of terror."
Meanwhile, also concerning Iran, U.S. officials say they will not negotiate with Iran one-on-one to resolve nuclear crises. The White House press secretary, Tony Snow, says the Bush administration will continue with its multilateral approach.
Also today, the chief of the United Nations nuclear watchdog group is meeting with administration officials. IAEA director-general Muhammad ElBaradei meets with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and national security advisor Stephen Hadley to discuss the situation with Iran -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Fred, thank you very much. We'll get back with you soon.
Over at the White House, President Bush meets tomorrow with his most important ally in the Iraq war, the British prime minister, Tony player. The two leaders will cap their talks in a very public way, holding an evening news conference that you'll see right here live in THE SITUATION ROOM tomorrow night.
Our White House correspondent, Ed Henry, is joining us from the North Lawn of the White House with a preview -- Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon, Wolf.
That's right. That press conference will be 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time tomorrow night in the East Room here at the White House. Expect it to last about an hour.
Prime Minister Blair was just in Baghdad, the first world leader, in fact, to visit Iraq since the formation of the new government there, expected to report back on progress.
The backdrop for these talks, of course, is the fact that these two leaders are very close, joined at the hip, defending this war that has sent their popularity plummeting.
When you look back to when Baghdad fell in the spring of 2003, 49 percent of the British people were satisfied with the job Mr. Blair was doing. That has now dropped to 28 percent.
An even steeper drop, of course, for Mr. Bush. He was at 70 percent in approval ratings, down now to the low to mid 30s. That's why tomorrow night we're expected to see both leaders try to pivot off some of the good news coming out of the Iraq and try to urge Iraqis to take a greater share of the burden, troop levels, et cetera. That's the theme Prime Minister Blair struck yesterday when he was meeting in Iraq with the prime minister, Mr. al-Maliki. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: This is a new beginning. And we want to see what you want to see, which is Iraq and the Iraqi people able to take charge of their own destiny. And write the next chapter of Iraqi history themselves.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Now Maliki released a written statement today, saying he believes that Iraq -- Iraqi forces will be able to take over all security in that country by the end of 2007.
But I can tell you, White House officials still insisting they do not expect Mr. Blair or Mr. Bush to make any sort of announcement about troop pullouts tomorrow night when they address the media together. In fact, officials insisting still no timetable at all. They've seen before how the progress can be in fits and starts. They don't want to get overly optimistic, Wolf.
BLITZER: Ed Henry at the White House. Thank you very much.
And, of course, CNN is the best place to be for tomorrow night's Bush/Blair news conference. Our coverage here in THE SITUATION ROOM begins 7 p.m. Eastern tomorrow night.
In a newly released Web message, Osama bin Laden denies that al Qaeda follower Zacarias Moussaoui played any role in the 9/11 attacks. Moussaoui's level of participation in the plot to his trial and maybe in a subsequent appeal.
Let's bring in our Internet reporter, Abbi Tatton. She has more on the story -- Abbi.
ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, if you look at the thousands of pages of documents online from the Moussaoui trial, you'll see that what Moussaoui himself said about his participation in 9/11 changed over time.
His government statement of facts from last year saying bin laden personally selected Moussaoui for the operation. This statement was not only signed by Zacarias Moussaoui, but he even signed it "20th hijacker."
Jump forward a year to the jury deliberations, and you'll see that some jurors, at least in the special verdict form, had a hard time deciding his level of participation, even writing in that Moussaoui had limited knowledge of 9/11 attack plans.
Moussaoui himself now agrees with that. He, in his motion to withdraw his guilty plea, he actually said earlier this month that a lot of what he said during the trial was a complete fabrication. That motion was rejected. Now, Moussaoui is appealing that decision -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Abbi, thank you.
Up next, Al Gore's new film opens tomorrow. Actually, it's opening tonight. But is there more to the movie than meets the eye? Our Bill Schneider takes a closer look
Plus, President Bush and angry conservatives. Is the president's base abandoning him? Our Jeff Greenfield is on the story.
Stay with us here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.
The former vice president, Al Gore, is launching a new campaign today, not for president but for his documentary on global warming. But is Al Gore sending signals he'd be open to another run for the White House after all? Let's go to our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider -- Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, the new Al Gore movie opens today. Is it "A Star is Born", or could it be a political star is reborn?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice-over): Could this be Al Gore's moment? Since 20000, the former vice president has been traveling the world, delivering more than 1,000 lectures on the threat of global warming. Hollywood producers saw Gore's talk and said, this has got to be a movie.
LAWRENCE BENDER, PRODUCER: We filmed him all around the world, in China, all over the country, and giving this presentation. And it's truly phenomenal. It's going to blow your mind.
SCHNEIDER: A lecture by Al Gore?
AL GORE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They have made it entertaining and enjoyable and funny, and really watchable.
SCHNEIDER: How did they do that? By doing what Hollywood does best, telling an intimate, personal story, including his sister's death from lung cancer.
GORE: It was so painful on so many levels. My father, he had grown tobacco all his life. He stopped.
SCHNEIDER: The filmmakers see the picture's message as unifying.
DAVIS GUGGENHEIM, DIRECTOR: He frames it now not as a political issue, but as a moral issue, something that we all have to really think about, and some -- and no matter who we are. (APPLAUSE)
SCHNEIDER: OK. Does President Bush plan to see it?
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Doubt it.
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
SCHNEIDER: These days, some Hollywood liberals have doubts about Hillary Clinton. Is she selling out? Can she be elected? Al Gore is emerging as their dark horse.
BENDER: He's great on all the issues. He's -- and he's passionate. He's funny. And he's grounded.
SCHNEIDER: Funny?
GORE: Gas is down to 19 cents a gallon, and the oil companies are hurting. I know that I am partly to blame by insisting that cars run on trash.
(LAUGHTER)
SCHNEIDER: Gore calls himself a recovering politician, but adds, there's a danger of a relapse.
GORE: I have said that I'm not at the stage of my life where I'm going to say never, in the rest of my life, will I ever think about such a thing.
SCHNEIDER: The film is coming out at the perfect moment. Millions of Americans are angry at President Bush and worried about energy. The film is not overtly partisan, but who can miss the visual cue here of one of Bush's greatest failures, Hurricane Katrina?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORE: Would Americans really elect a president who served eight years as vice president, then ran for president and failed, then was out of power for eight years? Well, you know, it worked for Richard Nixon, because the moment was right -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Bill, thank you very much. We are going to have more on Al Gore coming up in our "Strategy Session." Al Gore's former campaign manager, Donna Brazile, will be here with us, as well as Bay Buchanan.
Meanwhile, the current commander in chief is having a tough time these days keeping his own political troops in line. The battle over immigration is just one of the explosive issues that is widening cracks within the Republican Party.
Our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, has more on the president's apparently crumbling base -- Jeff. JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well, Wolf, it's a surest sign of troubles in politics. That's when your base starts getting angry with you in public. For President Bush, that trouble has been brewing almost from the start of his second term. How serious a threat is this to Republican prospects in the fall? And what can be done about it? Let's see what history tell us.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD (voice-over): Conservatives of every stripe, economic and social, mobilized to help Bush win a second term in 2004.
But, since then, on a host of issues, from the doomed Supreme Court nomination of Harriet Miers, to the response to Katrina, to the jump in domestic spending, to immigration, and even on Iraq, conservatives have been increasingly restive.
And just this past Sunday, longtime conservative operative Richard Viguerie wrote that: "Sixty-five months into Bush's presidency, conservatives feel betrayed. He talked like a conservative to win our votes, but never governed like a conservative."
It's hardly the first time Viguerie and other conservatives have found fault with a Republican president. Throughout Ronald Reagan's tenure, Viguerie and others said, the White House "slapped us in the face," called the Reagan White House "another Ford administration."
Reagan, of course, is now a conservative icon.
But when the base does seriously revolt against a sitting president, it almost always means trouble. Whether it was Senator Kefauver's challenge to Truman in '52, Eugene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy against LBJ in '68, Reagan vs. Ford in '76, Ted Kennedy vs. Carter in '80, or Pat Buchanan's race against the first President Bush in '92, none of those embattled presidents got reelected.
As to the midterms, a demoralized GOP base stayed home after Nixon's resignation in 1974. Democrats made huge gains.
(APPLAUSE)
GREENFIELD: By contrast, in 1998, Democrats, angry at the GOP Congress' impeachment efforts against Clinton, actually helped Democrats pick up seats.
Four years later, a big Republican turnout gave the GOP complete control of the Congress.
So, how to energize that unhappy conservative base? One way is through fear, the fear of putting Congress in the hands of folks like Nancy Pelosi, Ted Kennedy, even Hillary.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GREENFIELD: The other is to hope fervently for a fight that can bring the base back to Bush's side, which is why Republican operatives will be hoping, more than anything else, for another Supreme Court vacancy to open up, this one involving a member of the so-called liberal bloc.
The prospect of a genuinely reshaped Supreme Court could have the discontented on the right saying, all is forgiven, or almost all, Wolf.
And, Wolf, by the way, let me make an immediate correction. We used the wrong McCarthy in that piece. That, of course, was Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin. We meant to mention Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota. Our apologies to all political junkies.
BLITZER: To all McCarthys out there, a significant political difference in that tape.
Thank you very much, Jeff Greenfield.
Jeff Greenfield and Bill Schneider, as all of our viewers know, are part of the best political team on television -- CNN, America's campaign headquarters.
Up next, is the battle over immigration splitting the Republican Party in two? I will ask our two political experts, Donna Brazile and Bay Buchanan.
Plus, we will have much more on Al Gore. Does he have any presidential aspirations? Stick around. The "Strategy Session" is only minutes away.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Today, in our "Strategy Session," the immigration bill moves another step closer toward being voted on and eventually passed in the U.S. Senate. That could happen as early as today, even tomorrow.
Has the Bush administration done enough to get conservative Republicans on board?
Joining us now, our CNN political analyst and Democratic strategist Donna Brazile, and Bay Buchanan, the president of American -- of America -- America's Cause, right?
(LAUGHTER)
BAY BUCHANAN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: American Cause.
BLITZER: American Cause. I knew it was something like that. I have said it...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: I have said it enough times.
(LAUGHTER) BLITZER: Let's talk about immigration, likely be approved, what the president wants, what Senator McCain, Senator Kennedy want, in the U.S. Senate, with some amendments, some modifications, but, basically, that same kind of compromise, middle ground.
Lindsey Graham, Republican conservative from South Carolina, he's on board. He says this. He says: "I don't want my own party to marginalize the president on an issue of great national importance. Much is at stake for our party. If we can't solve this problem, because it's politically too hard for us, people are going to turn to another group to solve this problem."
What do you think, Bay?
BUCHANAN: Well, I don't think you solve the problem, number one, by selling out the nation. And -- and that's what this bill does. It destroys the country. You called it middle ground. There's nothing middle ground about inviting 66 million...
BLITZER: But the president of the United States is selling out the nation, is that what you're saying?
BUCHANAN: He's selling out this country. And he's going to invite 66 million foreigners to come into this country and take -- and be -- have free access to all our social services, our hospitals, our education.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: There are 11 million illegals. How do you get 66 million out of 11 million illegal immigrants right now, many of whom would be eligible for a path towards citizenship, but not necessarily all of them, as written in this legislation?
BUCHANAN: All of them, all of them, the way they're written -- this bill. Surely, some of them might have to step across the border and come back, but all of them will have citizenship.
But it's not only the 15 to 20, as many people think are here now, Wolf. It's also 200,000 a year, guest workers and their families, come. Plus, those who are here illegally today also can bring their families.
Heritage has done a complete analysis. In the next 20 years, this bill will bring 66 million new foreigners into this country with a legal path to citizenship. Our infrastructure cannot handle it. We will be buried.
BLITZER: Karl Rove, the president's top political adviser, has been on the Hill once again today, meeting with House Republicans, conservatives, trying to get them on board.
This is an especially difficult task. Listen to Bay. What she says is reflected in a lot of those Republican conservatives.
(CROSSTALK) DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, that's because the Republicans on the House side drew the line in the sand and said, this has to be a law-and-order approach. Nothing else mattered to them. And Karl Rove right now is doing what I call the 11th hour Hail Mary pass to see if he can get the Republicans in the House to agree.
This bill is comprehensive. This bill is not a perfect bill. But I do believe it has a strong bipartisan element. It has a tough border protection in it. It protects American workers. And the Republicans cannot get 100 percent of what they want. They should compromise and go ahead with this...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: Hold on one second, Bay. I want you to weigh in.
BUCHANAN: Sure.
BLITZER: But weigh in, in the context of -- we heard today from the president of Mexico, Vicente Fox. He's here in the United States. He's weighing in on this debate as well.
Listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VICENTE FOX, MEXICAN PRESIDENT: Mexico believes that enforcement, enforcement-only measures, will not solve the challenges posed by the migration phenomenon, and that comprehensive reform is in the interests of both nations.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: All right.
BUCHANAN: Well...
BLITZER: He sounds like the president: Comprehensive reform is what is what is required, not just focusing in on the border security.
BUCHANAN: You know, the comprehensive that he's talking about, what he wants, what the president wants is amnesty and guest workers. They want access -- anyone in the country -- anyone in the world that wants access to this country to work here, they want them to be able to come here.
The border security portions of this bill are not strong. And the enforcement are not strong. What America wants is what the House is asking for. America is not for amnesty. They don't trust that this government will secure the border. Just as in '86, we were supposed to have amnesty and a secure border, it didn't work in that way. We didn't get the enforcement side.
And, so, Wolf, that's where the problem is. The Americans know what they want. And the House knows what America wants. And they're holding tough. I don't believe -- it's going to be close, but I don't know that the president is going to get the majority of Republican senators to vote for this, much less a majority of House members, Republican House members.
BLITZER: All right. We will continue this.
But I want to talk to you, a little bit, Donna, about a subject close to your heart, Al Gore.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: You were his campaign manager back in 2000. You came pretty close to winning the White House, as you well remember.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: You got a lot more votes in the popular vote. You didn't finally carry Florida by, what, 535 votes.
Is he running again? Do you think this film that is debuting tonight is his vehicle to sort of throw his political hat back in the ring?
BRAZILE: What Vice president -- former Vice President Gore has said is that he's enjoying himself. He's enjoying his life.
He's serving his country right now by bringing to the nation's attention the threat that global warming is placing on this whole entire planet.
Look, Al Gore deserves a lot of credit. I think the buzz that is being created around this film is good for the issue of global warming. I don't think he has any plans right now to run for the presidency.
BLITZER: But he's only 58 years old, he said this morning. And, you know, there's a whole lifetime out ahead of him. He could do a lot...
BRAZILE: Well...
BLITZER: ... including running again for the White House.
BRAZILE: And there's no question that he's well-positioned.
Al Gore is still very popular. He's been consistent on a number of issues that many people in the Democratic Party care about. I do believe that this film is important. People should go and see it. It opens nationwide July 4.
Bay, I will personally buy you a ticket to go and see Al Gore.
(LAUGHTER)
BRAZILE: And since George Bush won't go with me, I will take you.
BLITZER: All right. You get some popcorn. You will have a good time watching the film.
BUCHANAN: I would take the popcorn.
(LAUGHTER)
BUCHANAN: I don't know about that movie, though.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: Thanks very much, Donna and Bay.
Coming up, an unexpected hitch for the president's choice to be the new FEMA director. We're going to tell you what turned up during David Paulison's confirmation hearings.
And former President Jimmy Carter took some political hits for the energy crisis in the '70s. Now he has some choice words about the current fuel crunch. My interview with the former president, that's coming up.
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back.
On our "Political Radar" this Wednesday, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is visiting Iraq, a trip that could help burnish his foreign policy credentials, if he runs for president.
The Republican governor met with U.S. military and diplomatic officials earlier today. He says he's impressed by the determination of American troops and residents in Iraq.
Another sign today that Senator Joe Lieberman is facing his toughest reelection challenge yet, in large part because of his support for the war in Iraq. A liberal political action committee founded by Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean is backing Lieberman's primary opponent, Ned Lamont. Lamont got $20,000 from Democracy For America. That's now run by Howard Dean's brother.
Confirmation hearings today for the president's choice to be next director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, but acting FEMA Chief David Paulison faced an unexpected hitch, just days before the start of the hurricane season. Paulison is planning to file three years' worth of amended tax returns as early as this afternoon, after questionable deductions were found. And a FEMA spokesman says Paulison will immediately pay back any money owed the U.S. government.
The director of FEMA is just one of many critical job vacancies over at the Department of Homeland Security. That's according to a Democratic congressman from a state ravaged by hurricanes.
What is it going to take to get the agency staffed for another hurricane and perhaps another Katrina?
Our Internet reporter, Jacki Schechner, has the story -- Jacki.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, Democratic Congressman Bennie Thompson from Mississippi is taking on the Department of Homeland Security and what it calls staffing issues.
Now, they have put together this chart online. And the boxes in red are departments within that Department of Homeland Security that they say have critical gaps in leadership or where there's acting people, instead of permanent people. For example, you can hone in on something like FEMA.
But the Department of Homeland Security tells me that this chart is outdated and inaccurate. For example, they say the top five positions under the FEMA banner are actually filled or currently in hearings. The regional directors that Thompson says are acting are actually now permanent positions, and the people who are act have extensive appearance.
Interesting to note, I talked to DHS about why it is so hard to fill these spots. They say it's an extraordinarily difficult job. And, on top of that, people who work for DHS, Wolf, often come under extreme public scrutiny.
BLITZER: Jacki, thank you very much.
Up next, fire and fear at an international airport. We are going to tell you where it happened and whether the danger is now over.
And, later, the bird flu threat -- there are new developments in two hot spots. We will ask one of the leading experts on bird flu, Dr. Anthony Fauci, if we should all be afraid.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Zain Verjee is off.
Fredricka Whitfield joining us once again from the CNN Center with a closer look at some other stories makes news.
Hi, Fred.
WHITFIELD: Hello to you, Wolf.
Well, take a look at this, a raging fire, a massive evacuation, and an all-out assault to put the fire out, scenes of a blaze was at Istanbul's International Airport in Turkey. The fire swept through the cargo area that contained explosives and chemicals. Officials are blaming the blaze on sparks from a welding torch. Some 2,000 people were evacuated. Officials say three people were injured.
Once a mentor, now a coward? That's how Lee Boyd Malvo describes John Allen Muhammad. The pair convicted in the 2002 sniper shootings faced off today in a Maryland courtroom. Muhammad is on trial for the killing of six people. Acting as his own attorney, he spent the morning cross-examining Malvo, the man he still calls "my son." Malvo says he plans to plead guilty in the Maryland shootings -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Thank you very much, Fred, for that.
Still to come, the raid on a U.S. congressman's office, a search for justice or a step over the constitutional line? Jack Cafferty back with your e-mail.
And he's the president's brother and the governor of Florida, but could Jeb Bush become the next NFL commissioner? That political football in our next hour, here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Let's check in with Jack. He's got "The Cafferty File" -- Jack.
CAFFERTY: Wolf, the question is, should the FBI be able to search congressional offices?
Gail in Perrysburg, Ohio, writes: "I guess I'm dense. My major in college was political science. But why should members of Congress be any different than the rest of us when they're being investigated? Nixon wasn't above the law, and neither is Congress."
Gerard in Seaside, California: "Yes, absolutely, provided they have enough evidence to get a warrant. Since we have a seemingly large problem with corruption on both sides of the aisle, there should be some kind of threat hanging over their heads."
Ron in San Francisco: "It's a difficult question. While I'm no fan of sleazy, corrupt congressmen, I'm worried about the police state we're becoming. I would like to find a way to prosecute Jefferson," the congressman the FBI's office -- they searched his office -- "without continuing to undermine the checks and balances that prevent Bush from shredding what's left of the Constitution."
Cara in Edgewood, New Mexico, writes: "Isn't it painfully ironic that Congress chooses now to be concerned about the Constitution and rule of law? The Republicans are rushing to Jefferson's defense becomes slime-bags stick together. And I'm sure, if their offices were searched, all sorts of interesting things would be found. All this puffed-up outrage makes me sick. Always be suspicious if a Republican defends a Democrat. They are likely up to no good."
Anthony writes: "With all the corruption going on in Washington, the FBI should routinely search every congressional office. It would be like watching the cockroaches scatter when the light goes on."
(LAUGHTER)
CAFFERTY: And April writes: "Hey, Jack, the FBI shouldn't search Congress, because of the political power struggle. I think they should let the illegal aliens do it. They don't have a problem letting them do other jobs in America" -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jack, thank you very much. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
