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INSIGHT

Israeli Continues Bombing Lebanon

Aired July 17, 2006 - 18:00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SHIHAB RATTANSI, CNN HOST: Bombs are blasting, civilians taking cover. How long will this last? And are world leaders doing enough?
Welcome to INSIGHT. I'm Shihab Rattansi.

After watching almost a week of fighting in the Middle East, the world's most powerful leaders seem to be working to find a solution. But in the meantime, the rockets fly, houses crumble and civilians die in a conflict that looks to be worsening by the day. With all those trying to stop the situation, there are accusations that other leaders are stoking the flames of war.

Christiane Amanpour has this look at what a wider war could mean for the region.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTL. CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Israel awoke again to the sound of sirens screaming, the port city of Haifa afraid one day after Hezbollah missiles killed eight people and again rockets landed near the port city.

As casualties mount here and many more in Lebanon, there is great fear around the world that this could escalate into a wider, hotter war. Yet many Israeli officials and analysts say that it won't. They say Israel has its hands full with Lebanon and Gaza. And besides, Syria and Iran are getting what they want.

AMATZA BAROM (ph), ISRAELI ANALYST: The Syrians are ready to fight Israel until the last Lebanese. That's the basic Syrian approach. By the same way, the Iranians are ready to fight Israel until the last, Syrian and Lebanon.

AMANPOUR: In other words, even though Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Syrian President Bashar Assad regularly verbally assault Israel, statements from both countries now are careful to distance themselves from the current fighting. Even though Israel says both give Hezbollah its arms and its orders, it is not threatening to go to war against those countries.

SHIMON PEREZ, ISRAELI DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: It's not for us to handle the Iranian issue. It's a world problem and the world should handle it.

BAROM (ph): We cannot attack Iran unless we use long-range missiles and F-15s, and this is war. This is all out war.

AMANPOUR: And rather than go to war against Syrian, Barom (ph) says Israel sees it as part of the eventual solution, if the international community puts enough pressure on Damascus in order for it to extract a political resolution from Hezbollah.

(on camera): But first Israel says it wants to make sure Hezbollah feels the heat. It wants to weaken its missile and military capability. A sign that that hasn't happened quite yet: around 1:30 Monday, several rockets, we're told, fell, but harmlessly out to sea. Israel says it will take at least another several days to finally make its point.

Christiane Amanpour, CNN, Haifa, Israel.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RATTANSI: Well, with the exception of those in the Middle East, most of the leaders with the ability and influence to diffuse this crisis weren't in the region this weekend. They were in St. Petersburg, Russia, at the G8 Summit which ended on Monday. But, inevitably, the Middle East crashed the stalwart agenda.

The United Nations secretary-general, Kofi Annan, proposing to send a stabilization force to southern Lebanon, where the United Nations already has 2,000 peacekeepers. The plan was backed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The United States didn't agree to the plan, saying it wants to hear back from a U.N. delegation already in the region.

But U.S. President Bush will dispatch his own emissary, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is to be sent to the Middle East. However, it's not clear when.

Israel says it will create a buffer zone between the two countries. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert addressed the Knesset on Monday and reiterated his conditions to end the conflict: a full ceasefire, the return of the kidnapped soldiers and the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Speaking from Syria, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said the conflict could end quickly if Israel agreed to stop its attacks on Lebanon then took part in a prisoner exchange.

So, it seems everyone has an opinion. But who has a real plan to resolve this conflict?

Joining us now to talk about the possibilities being considered, Paul Scham from the Middle East Institute.

Thanks for joining us.

First, what do you make of this idea of a stabilization force?

PAUL SCHAM, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: That may have to be the way that things go, but at the moment Israel is refusing to allow the idea of any troops in Southern Lebanon except for Lebanese troops, because it has had very bad experience with international troops in the past. But that may be unavoidable.

RATTANSI: What exactly would they be able to do? There is of course a force already there.

SCHAM: The question is what their mission is. If the mission is to suppress Hezbollah and to protect Israel against rocket attacks, then it would be designed in that matter. If the idea is simply to keep the peace, in other words to put their bodies on the line, then I think it is unlikely that anything would happen and I don't think Israel would agree to that.

RATTANSI: So, this would sort of be an extension then of Israel's idea of a buffer zone, except it would be internationally monitored and enforced buffer zone?

SCHAM: I think it would be more than a buffer zone, because at this point the old idea, which was based on Hezbollah having short-range rockets, seems to have evaporated, that you'd have to have a buffer zone of at least 25 miles. So, I think the Israeli idea is that Hezbollah would have to be actively suppressed, not just keeping a barrier.

RATTANSI: Is that possible? We've heard many people say that if Hezbollah is challenged by the Lebanese government, for example, we could have civil war again.

SCHAM: That seems very, very possible. The question is whether there is sufficient determination. And that's why it may be necessary to have troops from the outside who are more motivated and who are not connected in any way with Hezbollah, as some of the Lebanese army already is.

RATTANSI: But you're suggesting then the possibility of some international war against Hezbollah.

SCHAM: I think that that is what the United States would like to organize. I think that British Prime Minister Blair's suggestion may imply that, and the question is whether that can be accepted.

Certainly there has been tremendous international condemnation for Hezbollah, even coming from unlikely sources like Saudi Arabia.

RATTANSI: But at the moment the focus is on trying to destroy Hezbollah military. What about the political causes for Hezbollah's existence in the first place?

SCHAM: Well, that doesn't seem to be on the agenda at this point. The question is whether any of this can be done without some progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and that process at this point is nonexistent and does not seem as if it is gong to be revived.

So, there seems to be a missing link between the long-term settlement and the attempts to settle it in the short and medium line.

RATTANSI: Do you really think this is plausible, though? The different theories, then, putting in an international force to actively disarm Hezbollah or, indeed, a long-term solution to the Israeli- Palestinian conflict. Again, the latter a long way away, but the former seems a bit implausible, doesn't it?

SCHAM: It is hard to imagine that Hezbollah could be completely suppressed in the way that Israel expects. I think the idea that you mentioned of a buffer zone may be something that Israel will eventually have to accept, but I don't think that anybody wants to get involved in an Iraq type situation and I think it is implausible to say that all of the Hezbollah fighters and the Hezbollah impulse will be eliminated some time in the near future, and I think we can't forget the fact that there are a number of people who have been energized by the Israeli attacks. Both sides feel themselves the victim.

RATTANSI: What about the sense that it's not just a few miles that potentially are a buffer in Lebanon between it and Israel, but the whole of Lebanon as a buffer zone, basically, between Syria and Israel, and it's being used as a battlefield right now between Israel and Syria.

SCHAM: It's being used as a battlefield. I'm not sure it's really a buffer zone in the sense that the two want to attack each other. Don't forget, you have an Israeli-Syrian border that has been notably quiet for most of the last 40 years. So it's not as though you really have a fight between the two countries, and I think that most people agree that Syria has no desire to have a confrontation directly with Israel. The question is, what is Syria's goal here? Probably to inject itself back into Lebanese politics, from which it was partially expelled last year.

RATTANSI: But is there a sense that Israel's tactics could be backfiring? Instead of weakening Hezbollah and indeed weakening Syrian support for Hezbollah, Israel is energizing the entire region against it right now.

SCHAM: I think that it's too early to say that, because it's not clear which direction it will go in. On the one hand, it has been made very clear that Israel will not accept the status quo, and I think that is accepted to some degree by the moderate Arab states and by the West.

On the other hand, will there be a popular reaction that will last? At the moment, obviously, Israel's stock, which was low, has gone way below zero. But whether this will continue if a situation, if a modus vivendi is reached is impossible to say. Israel does not expect anything from Arab public opinion and seems to be completely disregarding it in its actions.

RATTANSI: Paul Scham, thank you so much.

SCHAM: Thank you.

RATTANSI: We're going to take a break, but when we return, leaving Lebanon. Why seeking shelter in the war zone isn't a road to find.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RATTANSI (voice-over): Beirut outbound. Those who can flee by helicopter. Others leave by sea. Some risk a land crossing to Syria.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: For everyone's sake, I don't know how they're going to get out.

RATTANSI: Civilians navigating their way out of a city that's no longer safe.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

Welcome back.

The United States has attempted to move its citizens out of the war zone, some 25,000 Americans are in Beirut. Israel so far has been allowing evacuation trips through its blockage. The United States says it's sending a commercial ship to Lebanon to transport its citizens to Cyprus. Britain officially began its evacuation on Monday. British helicopters are airlifting dozens of its citizens out of Lebanon and ferrying them to safety in Cyprus.

French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin went to Beirut on Monday to show his support for the Lebanese and help coordinate the evacuation efforts of French citizens.

But others in Beirut are not so fortunate. Many residents have been forced to take refuge in parks and schools. So far, more than 50,000 people across Lebanon have been displaced by the fighting, and many of these don't have the benefit of a foreign government coordinating their exit from the country.

Aneesh Raman has the story of one group of refugees who made it to Syria.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It is for many the only way out. Crossing from Lebanon to Syria, young and old, they are fleeing the violence. Wael (ph) and his wife, Nikola (ph), left to keep their 1- year-old daughter, Thalla (ph), arrive.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There are bombs are all over the place. Beside my house, there was a bomb just about 500 meters.

RAMAN: Many Lebanese here, like Ali, who spent hours going through immigration, saw the bombs start to fall too close.

"I carried five people to the hospital myself," he says, "after a bomb exploded just near to me. They were civilians who were hit, women and children. I saw it with my own eyes. It was terrible."

RAMAN: The majority here are poor Syrians, workers in Lebanon. This group carried everything they had on their heads and walked home.

"We left our lives there behind," this 65-year-old woman told me. "I just want to live. If I die, I want to die here in Syria."

(on camera): Officials here estimate that hundreds of thousands of people have made their way through this border crossing over the past few days. They say it has never been so busy, each person carrying with them stories of the violence taking place within Lebanon.

(voice-over): Understandably the road into Lebanon was virtually empty, except for a few Lebanese. This man lives in Saudi Arabia.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: My home, my land, my family, from everything I (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

RAMAN (on camera): Everyone here supports Hezbollah?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

RAMAN (voice-over): It wasn't just them. Literally everyone we met here supported Hezbollah. They say the Israeli attacks will only strengthen that allegiance. But no one took joy in what is taking place.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is Hezbollah. They are bombing Hezbollah. This is not our problem. It is between them -- it is a problem that is between them, but when they kill kids -- thank God my kids here are here now, but many kids are there.

RAMAN: For Lebanese here, like Wael (ph) and his family, the hours ahead are riddled with uncertainty. They don't know when they will return home. And they don't know whether the safe haven they found in Syria will soon become the next front in this escalating war.

Aneesh Raman, CNN, Yabous (ph), Syria.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RATTANSI: Families on the Israeli side of the border are also being displaced from their homes and spending sleepless nights in bomb shelters.

John Vause shows us how the fighting has taken its toll on one Israeli town in the line of fire. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Hour after hour, day after day, for almost a week now, these Israeli howitzers have pounded southern Lebanon while warplanes and helicopters attack from the air. Just across the border, the impact is devastating. Lebanese civilians are dying, homes, buildings and bridges destroyed. The Israelis are aiming for mobile rocket launchers like these, small, quick to set up, hard to hit. MAJ. ZVIKA GOLAN, ISRAELI ARMY: Wherever you can see Katyusha rockets launched from Lebanon, we actually can see it here as a target. So there people here, actually, the artillery, are shooting exactly to the place that is being shot from in Lebanon. VAUSE: But there's little Israel can do once the Katyushas are in the air. About a thousand Hezbollah rockets have hit Israeli towns and cities. Kiryat Shmona is right on the front lines. And life here has come to a standstill. For a few hours, residents come up for air. They spend most of the day and all of the night terrified in underground bunkers. (on camera): So, how many people would be staying here? UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thirty people, something like that. VAUSE (voice-over): Mordeki Kadushin (ph) says along with many others he's close to breaking. The bomb shelters are hot and stuffy. There's little to do, he says, except wait for the next attack. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You cannot go and relax when you hear boom, boom, boom. VAUSE: And if this firepower is not enough to stop the Hezbollah rockets, Israel still has the option of sending in ground forces. Tanks, armored vehicles and soldiers are gathering on the border. They're waiting and praying. John Vause, CNN, on the Israel-Lebanon border. (END VIDEOTAPE) RATTANSI: We'll take a break, but when we come back Arab leaders discuss the crisis. Can they come up with a solution?

Stay wit us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

RATTANSI: Only six of the 22 members of the Arab League voted in favor of holding an Arab summit on this latest crisis in the Middle East. Arab foreign ministers met over the weekend in emergency session and called for a ceasefire, but so far not much more than hand-wringing from the region.

Welcome back.

Across the Arab world, outrage is being directed at Israel as Lebanon's infrastructure is destroyed and the civilian death toll climbs. But the leaders of the Arab world were less unified in their reaction at the Arab League Summit over the weekend. Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia even leveling the blame for the current crisis on Hezbollah for capturing the two Israeli soldiers.

In the end, the Arab League's declaration sounded a little different from the sort of pronouncements we've been hearing from the Bush administration, a rather mild plea for restraint.

For the reasons behind such understatement from Arab powers, I am joined by Richard Bullet of the Middle East Institute at Columbia University.

Professor Bullet, in some ways I suppose we shouldn't be surprised. This isn't the first time we've seen such reticent as conflict rages in the Middle East from the Arab league. But why?

RICHARD BULLET, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE, COLUMBIA UNIV.: I think usually you have unanimity from Arab leaders when it's condemning Israel and that, you know, it sounds like what we should have expected.

But in this case, the people who are the kidnappers are Hamas and Hezbollah, and these are organizations that represent something that Saudi Arabia and Egypt and Jordan, among other countries, really are very fearful of, that is to say popularly elected, religiously oriented movements.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt feels very positive towards Hezbollah. They have looked for years upon Sheik Fadlallah, the spiritual adviser to Hezbollah, as someone whom the Muslim Brotherhood thinks highly of. Hamas is the branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Palestinian territories.

But the Egyptian government is trying to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, so in condemning Hezbollah in particular, Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Jordan are not being inconsistent. That doesn't mean they've discovered some sort of sympathy for Israel. It's just that they are horrified by the idea of popularly elected Muslim political bodies calling the shots in the Middle East.

RATTANSI: Should we be looking at the Shia-Sunni divide? King Abdullah of Jordan warning of a Shia arc developing from Iran to Iraq to Lebanon and so on. Is that a factor?

BULLET: This is certainly an obsession on the part of certain Sunni leaders. I think that it is a bit of a (UNINTELLIGIBLE). Syria is not really a Shiite country, and though it supports Hezbollah, it doesn't make up a Shiite arc.

But I think there is a great fear that the United States in attacking Iraq and setting up a government there that is dominated by Shiite political groups, political groups, incidentally, that are very sympathetic to Hezbollah, they're actually pretty much the same crowd, that we have set up a situation in which the Sunni governments, the conservative Sunni governments that are not strongly motivated by religion, are going ultimately to be inundated by (UNINTELLIGIBLE) popular movement, and here we see the split between the government and what is happening in the Arab street.

RATTANSI: And you bring up the Arab street, what of this disconnect, then, between the growing rage at Israel from their constituents and this apparent restraint and almost acceptance of what Israel is doing in Lebanon from the Arab leaders?

BULLET: I think that the Arab leaders have already discounted the popular reaction. They feel that they can control it because most of them run very, very tight autocratic regimes that regularly suppress religious movements that are opposed to the government.

But some governments, of course, Syria obviously, but even Algeria, which has a very delicate relationship between a non-religious government and a religious movement, which has gone through its own civil war, they have not joined with the Egyptian, the Saudi and the Jordanian, you know, soft line on Israel.

So, I think that the street will have a different impact in different areas. And one thing, of course, is that nobody seems to be talking about the Palestinians. It's always Hezbollah. And, of course, it's much easier to criticize Shiites for doing something that provokes an attack by Israel than it is to criticize Sunnis, namely Hamas, for doing exactly the same thing and provoking reprisals by Israel in Gaza.

RATTANSI: Given this disconnect, what of the American or the stated American goal of bringing democracy to this region? If the people are clamoring for action against Israel and instead of getting, if anything, more extreme in the reaction against Israel as Israel bombards Lebanon, if there were democracy to flower against the Middle East, it wouldn't be terribly good for either U.S. or Israeli interests.

BULLET: Most people think that if you had free elections in the Arab world, that religiously oriented parties would win those elections in virtually every country, and this is the reason the current governments suppress those parties.

In Iraq, the United States made a decision that those parties represent the will of the majority and they should be permitted to run for office and indeed form a government. Then we urge democratization upon other Arab states, such as Egypt. Egypt paid lip service to this, didn't really do anything, because Egypt is very fearful of the Muslim government becoming the government of Egypt.

Now, the United States, in urging democratization, is, of course, pursuing a visionary American goal of freedom in the world and rescuing these Arab states from tyranny. But there would be a really, really tough period in which governments or movements that have been suppressed for a long time and that are opposed to Israel, opposed to the United States, would form democratically elected governments.

RATTANSI: But, very quickly, in the long run, though, this current action by Israel in Lebanon, is it not strengthening the militants around the region? Or is it okay? Will the status quo prevail?

BULLET: Oh, I think it's strengthening the militants around the region. Hezbollah is fighting back effectively to some degree at the present time. That's causing hurt in Israel. I think that some people are saying that in the long run the United States should attack Iran in order to solve all of this problem, and I think that would be a terrible mistake.

RATTANSI: Professor, thank you so much.

And that's INSIGHT. I'm Shihab Rattansi.

END

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