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American Morning

Push for Peace in the Middle East; Thousands from Lebanon Seek Refuge in Syria

Aired July 25, 2006 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: A push for peace in the Middle East right now. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is meeting with Israeli and Palestinian leaders, but with no real talk of a cease-fire on the agenda. And Hezbollah and the Israeli military again are trading deadly rockets and bombs.
Welcome back, everybody. You're watching a special edition of "AMERICAN MORNING." I'm Soledad O'Brien in New York. Hey, Miles, good morning.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Soledad. From Jerusalem, Miles O'Brien. It is now 3:30 in the afternoon here. It's been a busy day of diplomacy. Rockets raining down, Israeli air strikes. The military campaign, the diplomatic effort, both rising to a crescendo today.

The secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, here to meet with the Israeli prime minister and other senior leaders in the government, and onward in to the West Bank and Ramallah -- the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas -- where she was discussing the broad outlines of an ambitious plan that the United States is putting forward to try to come up way long-term solution to what is happening in Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah militants, in particular, a state within a state there.

Our reporter Brent Sadler in Beirut is out with some of the broad outlines of what Condoleezza Rice is saying as she shuttles to and from these capitals. In essence, she is proposing two international forces: an immediate one consisting of some 10,000 troops, Turkish and Egyptian, under NATO or United Nations control. Ultimately, that force replaced by a force numbering about 30,000 troops.

Lots of key issues here. Would Hezbollah agree to this? Very unlikely. Hezbollah's military defeat likely a pre-determined outcome before this would occur. And finally, Israel. How far does Israel want to go? Does it want a buffer zone that matches the distance of those rockets, which would be on the order of 20 miles? So there's lots of devils in these details. But nevertheless, the Rice plan is what she is pushing right now, and pushing back against requests for an immediate cease-fire.

Meanwhile, on the southern front in Gaza, the Israeli Defense Forces continue to try root out strongholds of Hamas and Islamic jihad in that area that might, in fact, be targeting civilians as well. The secretary of state, after meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, had some things to say about peace between Palestinians and Israelis. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: I assured the president that we have great concerns about the sufferings of innocent peoples throughout the region. In that regard, we talked, of course, about the fact that even as the Lebanon situation resolves, we must remain focused on what is happening here, in the Palestinian territories, on our desires to get back on a course that will lead ultimately to the president's vision and indeed the vision of President Abbas. President Bush's vision, but indeed the position of President Abbas, of two states living side-by-side in peace.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

M. O'BRIEN: The secretary of state, setting her goals very high for this U.S. diplomatic mission as she travels in the Middle East. She will make her way to Rome later in the day, where she will meet with European and other Arab leaders to try to forge some kind of way to push this U.S. plan forward. But in the initial indications -- have been, as she met in Beirut with a rather cool reception, is that there's a consistent demand on many parts, from many quadrants, for an immediate cease-fire in Southern Lebanon.

The big concern is the humanitarian equation. Some 800,000 people are displaced. There's concern about shortages of food and supplies, and civilians, of course, being caught up in these attacks by the Israeli Defense Forces, the Israeli Air Force, as they try to go after Hezbollah. Hezbollah deliberately shields themself with civilians. So it is no surprise that civilians are in the crossfire here. Many of them, those who have not left Lebanon, many have moved out and moved across the border into Syria, where there is an emerging refugee crisis.

CNN's Aneesh Raman, live now from Damascus, with more -- Aneesh.

ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

We're at one of the biggest refugee centers in Damascus right now. Some 600 people are calling this school now their temporary home. There's a couple of floors, 50 rooms, some of them strewn with mattresses. Upwards of 20 to 30 people in single rooms. It's a small part of the overall number. Conservative estimates are that somewhere between 120,000 and 150,000 Lebanese have sought refuge here in Syria.

Behind me, a huge truck that is filled with water, just a small piece of the overall supplies that are making their way into this school. The age range here goes from a 17-day-year-old child, all the way up to a 90-year-old woman. They all have horrific stories of the disruption of apartments that were bombarded in front of them, of relatives they saw killed in front of their eyes.

And interestingly, the majority of people that are coming now are women and children. The men are staying behind, a lot of them to protect their homes and some of them to join Hezbollah and what they regard here as a fight for resistance. There is anger here in Israel. There is anger here at the West for not stopping this. And there really isn't blame for Hezbollah. They see this as something that has been going on for some time. But, again, you speak to these kids -- and there are about 100 or so kids here -- and you get a sense of the scars that they will see.

One kid, Mohammed (ph), eight years old, told us he can't sleep. The minute he closes his eyes, he thinks that there are going to be bombs. And his message, we asked him, to the world and to the kids in Beirut, was that they shouldn't leave their homes because they will get killed. And those will be lingering scars. Those will define the next generation of Lebanese that at one point, and we don't know when, will return home.

So as Israel eradicates Hezbollah, you get a sense here that these are where their supports exist, and then when they go home, there will be another problem entirely.

M. O'BRIEN: Aneesh Raman in Damascus, Syria. And we see the cycle there of hatred and violence as it continues from generation to generation -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Miles, thanks. We'll get back to you in a bit.

Earlier this morning, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he will take severe measures to stop the threat of Hezbollah rockets. What and where are the targets that Israel is attacking right now?

Here to explain some of the strategy is CNN's military analyst, Major General Don Shepperd. He's in Washington, D.C. Nice to see you, sir. Thanks for talking with us.

First and foremost, we've been talking about these two regions, two towns. Maroun al-Ras and also Bint Jbeil. Can you show me where they are on the map, and then explain the strategic importance of these two towns, that the Israeli military now controls.

MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, sure can, Soledad.

We've got -- we're zooming in on a map here to show you the area from the overhead. We have basically three towns that we're talking about here. The first is Avivim in Israel, where the Israeli forces have been massing and assembling before they move into Southern Lebanon.

And then Maroun al-Ras is just typical of one of the tens of villages that are in the area. If we zoom in on Maroun al-Ras itself, we can see the difficulty of the terrain and what the Israelis are facing. Each one of these towns has to be ferreted out, has to be searched. Every house in the village has to be searched. They provide many hiding places for Hezbollah, for the rockets themselves that they are firing. They're composed of tunnels and caves that have to be searched. All of these things can be bobby-trapped with IEDs. This type of terrain can basically eat up troops. If we just take a look at the difficulty of the rugged terrain itself and the fact that it looks down into Israel, if we go from Maroun al-Ras to Bint Jbeil, which has been referred to as the capital of Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, it's just one more of the tens of villages, each one representing a challenge, a hiding place, where the Hezbollah can melt in with the people themselves, hide weapons, jump out, fire these weapons, and then booby trap the area as the Israeli forces move in.

It soaks up tens of thousands of soldiers to do these things. The Israelis will have to do it and any international force that comes in is going to have to do the same thing. Tough duty, Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Let's run through some of the other areas that the Israelis -- we know the Israelis are targeting as well. The Litani River. Where is that and why that?

SHEPPERD: Yes, the Litani River is about 20 miles into Lebanon itself from the Israeli border. And basically, the Litani runs from the mountains that divide Lebanon, the Lebanon mountains, if you will, that run north/south, then it runs out to the coast.

If you zoom in and then you superimpose the range of the Katyusha rockets on the Litani, you can see its importance. If you can push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, it keeps the Katyusha rockets, which have about a 12-mile range, from falling into Northern Israel. It won't take care of all the longer-range rockets, but it will take care of the Katyushas, which are the main concern right now -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Another area we've heard a lot about is the Bekaa Valley. When you look at the map and you see how close that is to Syria, that's got to bring in a lot of other concerns, too, right?

SHEPPERD: It does. In fact, this whole area is so small -- we're talking about a country, Lebanon, that's 120 miles long, the distance between Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia. Width is the distance between Washington, D.C. and Annapolis, about 30 miles, and divided by a mountain range.

Now the Bekaa Valley is the eastern part of Lebanon itself. And whoever controls the Bekaa Valley controls the transportation mode between Syria and the capital of Beirut and western Lebanon, and then the flow into Southern Lebanon for weapon and material. You have to control the Bekaa Valley to control Hezbollah. It's been a Hezbollah stronghold, and further when you control the Bekaa valley or move in to it, you are right next to Syria. Syria's likely to mobilize its forces, and there again, now you have the Israeli forces that basically would have to strike, mobilize Syrian forces. Very dangerous when you move in to the Bekaa, Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: All right, so you've talked about several fronts there. Where else is the Israeli army mobilized, or the military across the board, mobilized now?

SHEPPERD: Well, basically, of course. They're fighting in Gaza. They're fighting in Southern Lebanon. They're trying to keep a conflict from happening with Syria. The Golan Heights is also a very important strategic area that has strategic and diplomatic importance. It used to be a listening post for Israel, although Israel has other ways to listen with its sensors and what have you, but Syria wants the Golan Heights and its disputed areas back. The disputed areas are shown in orange, outlined in orange here. Syria wants those back.

So Israel, perhaps in the future, will be trading some of these areas for Syrian cooperation to bring Hezbollah under control.

S. O'BRIEN: CNN military analyst Major General Don Shepperd, thank you. Nice to see you, as always. Appreciate that.

SHEPPERD: My pleasure.

(NEWSBREAK)

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, the civilian death toll is climbing, as the fighting in the Middle East drags on. So is Hezbollah losing support, its supporters within Lebanon. We'll get some perspective from Beirut this morning.

Then later, a wider view of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. An expert tells us how the Middle East crisis is really linked the war in Iraq. That's ahead.

Stay with us. You're watching a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECY. OF STATE: President Bush wanted this to be my first stop here in Lebanon, to express our desire to urgently apply conditions so that we can end the violence and make life better for the Lebanese people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

M. O'BRIEN: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday, Beirut, Lebanon, the surprise to us, first destination on her troop throughout the Middle East to try to get some U.S. diplomacy in gear here, possibly coming toward some sort of solution to this two-week- old crisis in Middle East.

We know now a little bit more about the plan that she is presenting as she makes her way to these various destinations.

CNN's Brent Sadler reporting to us this -- basically, Condoleezza Rice is offering the possibility of no less than two international peacekeeping forces. One almost immediately to help stabilize the government in South Lebanon, the Lebanese government in general, and the southern part of that country specifically, 10,000 troops, Turkish and Egyptian, with either NATO or United Nations control. Ultimately that would be replaced by a 30,000-strong international peacekeeping force. Unclear who would make up that force.

Some very important what ifs and contingencies on all this. Hezbollah would have to agree to this. That's unlikely, or be defeated militarily and Israel, meanwhile is pushing towards a 20-mile buffer zone, basically the distance, or the range, of these missiles that they have been firing into northern Israel.

So a problematic proposal from the viewpoint of the prime minister of Beirut, the speaker of the parliament there.

Joining us to talk a little about the cool reception the secretary of state received there is Rami Khouri. He is an editor-at- large with "The Daily Star" newspaper in Beirut.

Mr. Khouri, that proposal, as we just laid it out, does not sit well with the leadership of Lebanon. Why not?

RAMI KHOURI, "THE DAILY STAR," BEIRUT: Because it probably doesn't fit well with the dictates of neither human morality nor international law. This is a conflict between two parties, Israel and Lebanon. A cease-fire, a permanent peace, a calm and security for both Israelis and Lebanese requires that their rights be met simultaneously, and mutually and equally. You cannot come in and propose multilateral forces if you're main aim is primarily to protect Israel leaving the fate of Lebanon to the future and to chance. I think there is a possibility to get a cease-fire, bring in international troops, revamp American credibility, but it has to be one -- it has to be an approach that responds to Israeli and Lebanese demands simultaneously.

S. O'BRIEN: So what you're saying is that you need an immediate cease-fire?

KHOURI: What I'm saying is that, yes, you need to respond to the legitimate demands of both Israeli and the Lebanese. You can not put Israeli demands above Arab demands. You need to make sure that nobody is attacks Israelis from Lebanon and nobody is occupying Lebanese land or olding Lebanese prisoners and all prisoners are exchanged.

If you respond to the legitimate needs of both sides, there is a clear possibility -- more than a possibility, I think a strong likelihood -- that you can get a cease-fire. More importantly, it would set a precedent for dealing with wider issues in the Middle East, which Arabs and Israelis need to address.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, you could make a case that Hezbollah is already occupying Southern Lebanon, because the Lebanese government really doesn't control that swathe of land. Would this not be in the interest of the Lebanese government to try to reign in Hezbollah and use this multi-national force as a tool to do that?

KHOURI: Well, it certainly would be in the interest of the Lebanese government, but Israel hasn't allowed a Lebanese government to emerge in the last 25 years, because it keeps occupying, bombing, attacking and subjugating the south of country and now the rest of the country to massive bombardment. So yes, there is a legitimate need for them to extend its control throughout the territory of Lebanon, but there's also -- that will only happen if Israel stops attacking and occupying Lebanon.

So we've got to look at both sides. The solution is a political solution that responds to Israeli and Lebanese needs simultaneously. This is not a conflict that is waged only by Hezbollah and the Lebanese, nor only by the Israelis. We have two people here fighting a war. A peace has to come from resolving the legitimate needs of both sides and not one side. And that's why Condoleezza Rice is being greeted here with a lot of skepticism.

M. O'BRIEN: What do you say to the argument, though, that the U.S. puts forth that as long as Hezbollah remains intact with its weapons and its fighters in place, something that would occur if there were an immediate cease-fire, any sort of cease-fire, any sort of solution, would be simply a band-aid, a short-term solution?

KHOURI: Well, there is some credibility to that, but, again, Hezbollah is not fighting a one-sided war. Israel and Hezbollah have been fighting against each other for about 25 years or so. The real question to ask is, where did Hezbollah come from? Hezbollah didn't exist before 1982 or so. Hezbollah is a creation of the occupation of Lebanon, South Lebanon, by Israel, that was created to fight the occupation. And it did, and Israel got out in the year 2000 with a little bit of land that Israel still occupies.

So the real diplomatic approach that would work is to look at the underlying causes. Why is Israel repeatedly attacking Lebanon? Why are Hezbollah rockets repeatedly attacking northern Israel? What are the political reasons for that? There's three of them: occupied lands in South Lebanon, rockets coming across the border and prisoners that are being held. If you can address those three demands for both sides, you definitely can get a cease-fire, and a coherent one rather than the kind of incoherent approach that we're getting from the United States right now.

M. O'BRIEN: Rami Khouri, who is editor-at-large for "The Daily Star" in Beirut, thank you for your time.

Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: All right, Miles, thanks. We will check back with you in just a few moments.

Coming up next, Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business." Hey, Andy, good morning.

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" COLUMNIST: Good morning, Soledad. The movie "Crash" was a smash, so where has all the money gone? Plus, we'll tell you about a guy who has a business selling big, perfect marijuana plants, and it's perfectly legal. Coming up.

S. O'BRIEN: Really? Interesting. All right, Andy. Thank you.

Also ahead this morning, the crisis in the Middle East. We'll take a look at how the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is, in fact, connected to the war in Iraq. That's ahead. Stay with us. You're watching a special edition of "AMERICAN MORNING."

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S. O'BRIEN: Going to take a look at our top stories, coming up right after this short break. Stay with us.

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