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American Morning

Is There Really a Cease-Fire Between Israel and Hezbollah?; Thousands of Lebanese Eager to Return to Homes in Southern Lebanon; Target: USA

Aired August 14, 2006 - 06:31   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Happening this morning, a U.N.- brokered cease-fire is in effect between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel says there has already been fighting in the southern part of Lebanon.
Britain has lowered its terror threat level from critical to severe. The move follows last week's news that police foiled a plot to blow up as many as 10 commercial airliners.

And Cuba's official communist newspaper has published new photos of Fidel Castro. In that photo are Castro's brother, Raul, and the Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, as well. They visited him in the hospital yesterday for his 80th birthday. Castro had intestinal surgery last month.

Good morning. Welcome back, everybody. I'm Soledad O'Brien.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Miles O'Brien.

That cease-fire in the Middle East may already be in trouble. There's word this morning of gunfire in southern Lebanon.

During the month-long conflict, Israel says 114 members of its defense forces were killed, along with 53 civilians. Another 865 civilians injured. Lebanon says 890 killed on that side of the border, 3,800 others injured.

Just two hours before the cease-fire went into effect, Israel dropped leaflets on Beirut, blaming Hezbollah for the conflict and warning of retaliation if Hezbollah resumes attacking Israel.

Now, right now, thousand of refugees are attempting to return to southern Lebanon, as you see in those pictures there. Israel, though, is keeping a see and air blockade against Lebanon in place.

So, is this really a cease-fire or not?

We have correspondents on both sides of the border for you this morning.

Let's go first to our senior international correspondent, Matthew Chance, who joins us from northern Israel.

Matthew, what are you seeing and hearing there?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly the guns behind me which have been really pounding, as you know, Miles, territory inside Lebanon, Hezbollah strongholds there, have been silenced very much since the start of this cease-fire more than five hours ago. So, that's a really positive sign.

You mentioned those casualty figures on both sides. That's why Israelis and Lebanon both really hope against hope that this cease- fire will hold, but already, as you mentioned, there has been a first clash between Israeli forces on the ground in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah fighters. It took place near the village of Haditha a few hours ago.

Apparently, according to the information we have from the Israel army, a group of individuals, three people, advanced towards an Israeli army position. They were carrying weapons. They were fired upon by Israel soldiers, and at least one of the people described as Hezbollah fighters by the Israeli army were injured.

And so, the situation is very tense, the cease-fire is very much in force, but is very much also, Miles, hanging by a thread.

Back to you.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. So it's a little bit confusing, though. The first shots apparently fired by the Israeli Defense Forces, but they felt that they were in some way under attack?

CHANCE: That's right. The first shots in this incident were fired by the Israeli soldiers. Israel defense officials confirm that. And what they say is that Israel has made it quite clear that if it sees its soldiers in danger, if that judgment is made, or its civilians in danger, for that matter, it will use defensive military operations to strike at Hezbollah or whoever else is threatening those civilians or soldiers. So that's why this is such a delicate cease- fire -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. So no word yet on whether this has had any sort of ripple effect?

CHANCE: No. It seems that this was an isolated incident at this stage, but obviously there are 30,000 Israeli troops on the ground in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said, as long as they're there, they will continue to keep up their attacks. And so, the potential for this cease-fire being blown out of the water quite literally are very real, indeed.

M. O'BRIEN: Matthew Chance on the border, just south of the border with Lebanon and northern Israel.

Thousands of Lebanese, meanwhile, eager to return to their homes in southern Lebanon despite a travel ban by the Israelis, despite that leafleting campaign we told you about.

Let's check on that some more. CNN's Ben Wedeman joining us from Tyre, Lebanon.

Ben, tell us, are people trying to get back into Tyre at this moment?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're trying to get back to Tyre, and also to the towns and villages throughout south Lebanon. And our understanding is there are thousands of people who have come out, because many of these people, Miles, were staying in cramped schools in places like Beirut, in the mountains, conditions were not very good.

We visited many of those schools. They complained that they're cramped, that they're running out of food, they don't have water, they don't have washing facilities. So many of these people are very anxious to get to their homes in the south.

But there's a problem. We've heard from Lebanese security sources that at least 11 people have already been injured today from unexploded ordnance, basically, bombs and artillery shells that are lying around many of these towns and villages. And with all these people coming back with children -- and there have been children among the injured -- it's a very dangerous situation. And -- but it's hard to hold these people back.

They want to go to their homes. The problem is, when they see their homes, they may be distressed by the state they find them in -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: I should -- to say the least.

Let's talk about how tenuous this cease-fire is. A lot of the key components to enforce a cease-fire really are not in place. Lebanese army being in play, a United Nations force of some kind there to sort of keep the parties separated, and Hezbollah disarming.

So, how -- given the fact that those ingredients aren't really there right now, how likely is it that we'll see a real cease-fire?

WEDEMAN: Well, Miles, many people think it's already quite an accomplishment, that five and a half hours af the beginning of the cease-fire, there's only been very scattered incidents. What needs to happen here is that 15,000 troops from the Lebanese army need to deploy, 15,000 international peacekeepers to supplement the 2,000 peacekeepers who are already here.

Hezbollah, according to the Security Council resolution, has to pull back behind the Litani River and disarm. So that's a list of things that have yet to be accomplished, and that's where problems could ensue. But the fact that five and a half hours, there really haven't been a lot of incidents, is something that many people are encouraged by, and we can expect that the longer this cease-fire holds, the more people are going to come down here.

Let's keep in mind that the normal population of southern Lebanon is 400,000. There are only 100,000 left. So, basically, we can expect, over the next few days, possibly 300,000 people coming to an area where the roads have been blown, the bridges have been destroyed, many of the towns and villages have been destroyed. But we can expect a flood of people in the coming days -- Miles. M. O'BRIEN: Yes. And their reaction to what they see will be so key, won't it, Ben?

WEDEMAN: Yes, it will.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. Ben Wedeman in Tyre.

Thank you -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Thirty-eight minutes past the hour. Let's get a check of the forecast with Chad at the CNN Center.

A perfect weekend, Chad. Kudos to you for that.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I'll tell you what, it was great down here, it was great through the Midwest, the Atlantic coast.

(WEATHER REPORT)

M. O'BRIEN: All right. Thank you very much, Chad Myers.

Still to come on the program, the nation's terror threat level. We're going to talk about planes, trains and orange alerts.

We'll take you live to Grand Central Station in New York City and see how people feel riding the rails this morning.

And politics and fear. Through all of the world events, the president gets a bump in the polls. We'll try to decipher the political tea leaves with our senior editor of "The National Journal Hotline" with his Monday morning performance with us.

John Mercurio, in the house.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: Oh, it is going to be another day of long lines and delays at U.S. airports. The threat level is at orange, or high, for all domestic and international flights, but the rules are relaxing slightly for carry-on bags.

CNN's Brianna Keilar is live for us at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, part of our "Target: USA" coverage this morning.

Hey, Brianna. Good morning.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey. Good morning, Soledad.

And we already saw our first bottleneck of the morning, actually, in the 4:00 a.m. hour, before security checkpoints even opened up. But as soon as they did open up at 5:00 a.m., security was moving very well, and now we're actually seeing sort of our second bottleneck here. The line a little longer than normal, but things definitely picked up since earlier. We saw people stretching about 150 yards down the way before security even opened up. And a lot of the travelers we talked to, domestic travelers, saying they are changing their behaviors.

We can actually get a look now at curbside check-in outside of O'Hare, and a lot of people saying that they are checking in baggage that normally they would carry-on. And asking them if that's a problem, they say they're taking it all in stride, it's just something they have to do for their safety. And while they realize it's a little bit of annoyance, they say 45 to 60 minutes early they're getting here, and they're just kind of dealing with it -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Yes, they are. Bu it doesn't look like anybody's rioting behind you, so I guess it's sort of calm, at least at this hour.

Brianna Keilar for us this morning at O'Hare.

Thanks, Brianna -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: With all the focus on keeping us safe in the air, there are millions of commuters with some other concerns a little closer to terra firma.

CNN's Alina Cho live at Grand Central Station with more on that as we continue our "Target: USA" coverage.

Good morning, Alina.

ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey there, Miles. Good morning to you.

You know, Grand Central Station is one of several hubs for commuter travel here in New York City. Not quite busy yet, but it's about to in the next half-hour. Peak time is coming up. More than a half-million people pass through here every day, making it the busiest stop in the city's subway system.

And consider this: none of the passengers are screened. That is one of the reasons why transportation security experts say trains, subways, even buses and ferries are vulnerable to a terrorist attack. We will get into all the reasons in a live report, Miles, just ahead.

M. O'BRIEN: All right, Alina. See you in just a little bit.

Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, a multimillion-dollar hit for Jeffrey Skilling. The feds want him to turn over 183 million bucks. Wait until you hear their reasons.

Plus, the terror bounce. Is President Bush's approval tied to the failed attack in Britain? We'll take a look how fear plays into politics.

Stay with us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

M. O'BRIEN: The president is doing better with voters in the wake of that foiled plot to blow up airliners over the Atlantic. So, does fear work as a political tool? Apparently so. And that gives us a little bit of grist for the Mercurio mill this morning.

John Mercurio, senior editor of "The National Journal's Hotline" joining us every Monday at this time.

Where is the mill located, by the way? Do you bring it with you? You don't...

JOHN MERCURIO, SR. EDITOR, "THE HOTLINE": I got no mill. I don't know what you're talking about, Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: You keep that at the office, right?

Let's look at the numbers very quickly. This is a poll conducted by "Newsweek" over the weekend, and here are the numbers.

The president -- "How is the president handling his job?": The old approval numbers, and this is up -- well, that's the wrong numbers. That's the other one. But what we would like to show you...

MERCURIO: I know the numbers.

M. O'BRIEN: ... imagine a screen that has a 38 percent approval rating for the president and a 55 percent disapproval. None of those numbers match what I'm talking about. The point is, he's doing better.

Fear does work. Why?

MERCURIO: He's doing better not just overall, but he's also doing better on the issue of national security, and that is the most important issue, I think, for -- definitely for Republicans, and for this president heading into these midterm elections. It works because it's visceral. It's because it's what voters care most about, is their personal security and the national security.

And Republicans have won two elections, the 2002 midterms and the president's re-election campaign in 2004, a very, very tough challenge both times, on the issue of national security. They've been able to portray the Democratic Party as extremely weak. And that's what -- I think the challenge for Democrats going into the midterms this fall is to sort of try to counter that challenge.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, here's what's interesting. Let's -- one of those numbers that did come up -- and this is the issue of Iraq -- "Which party would do a better job of handling Iraq?"

People are now saying -- 45 percent would say the Democrats would do a better job, 39 percent say Republicans would do a better job of handling Iraq.

MERCURIO: Right.

M. O'BRIEN: So, you could make a case that world events, having shifted a lot of people's attention away from Iraq, help the White House.

MERCURIO: Well, I think what Democrats need to do, and what they've been trying to do, I think, for the past year or two, is make a distinction in voters' minds between the issue of Iraq and the issue of national security. They've been saying, look, we went to war in Iraq under sort of faulty intelligence by the direction of this president, it hasn't been a successful war, but isn't directly related to the overall war on terror that the president does still gets good ratings for.

M. O'BRIEN: Right.

MERCURIO: So I think that's sort of the controversy.

M. O'BRIEN: So, looking ahead toward midterm elections, elections are always -- there's always variables you can't control in elections. But it seems more now than ever.

MERCURIO: More now than ever what?

M. O'BRIEN: That the elections are dependent upon external things that campaigns can't control.

MERCURIO: That's exactly right. And I think that's what this poll shows. It shows that even a terror plot that never even occurred, that these -- that the London authorities were able to dismantle before -- before these -- before it actually took place, even an event like that can have a dramatic impact on the political landscape of a country like the United States. And I think that has both parties very concerned going into these midterm elections.

There's really no way to predict what will occur in November, which party will take control of Congress, because we don't know what's going to happen between now and then. And that's what I think last week's lesson really was.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. Our "Hotline" senior editor, John Mercurio.

Thanks for being with us.

MERCURIO: Welcome back.

M. O'BRIEN: Thank you -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Still ahead this morning, we're looking at "Target: USA." CNN correspondents live around the country taking a look at security trouble spots. Just how prepared are we for a terrorist attack? Special reports all day long.

AMERICAN MORNING is back in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

M. O'BRIEN: Jeff Skilling, the former CEO of Enron, getting a bill from the government, and it's bigger than expected.

Jennifer Westhoven in for Andy Serwer.

Good morning, JENNIFER.

JENNIFER WESTHOVEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

This is tough now that Ken Lay, the former Enron chairman, died. Essentially, the federal government is turning to Jeff Skilling and saying, guess what? You are now responsible for the whole thing.

S. O'BRIEN: Wow.

M. O'BRIEN: You mean his estate? They can't go after Ken Lay's estate and get the money?

WESTHOVEN: No. There's a twist for that. So now they're going after Jeff Skilling. Essentially, the federal government is looking it this. There' about a $180 (sic) bill here for the biggest bankruptcy and fraud that happened at Enron.

S. O'BRIEN: $180 million?

M. O'BRIEN: $180 million.

WESTHOVEN: $180 million. Pardon me, yes.

So, it used to be...

M. O'BRIEN: Otherwise, I'd cover it.

(LAUGHTER)

S. O'BRIEN: We'd split it, really.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes.

WESTHOVEN: You know, $140 million was Skilling's share, $40 million was Ken Lay's share. Now they're just saying, you've got to pony up the whole thing.

Now, $60 million of his assets have already been frozen for about two and a half million years -- two and a half years. It is so early for me. Pardon me.

M. O'BRIEN: That's OK.

WESTHOVEN: But it is interesting to see. Is he even going to have enough money to pay this even if he had to? His lawyer is saying that Skilling -- really, only $12.5 million of Skilling's money is traceable or related to or could be considered something that could be taken away from him because of this case, because a lot of this is about insider trading, and Jeff Skilling has been cleared on some of those insider trading charges.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. We'll watch that one.

WESTHOVEN: Yes.

M. O'BRIEN: What else you got?

WESTHOVEN: The other thing I got is that there's this -- for years now, companies have picked up the tabs of executives and their legal bills. Well, then, along came (INAUDIBLE), or several of them, Enron, WorldCom, and stockholders ended up paying the lawyers to get the executives off the hook for criminal charges.

Well, the Department of Justice said, no. They put in some recommendations, saying that, from now on, people should have to pay their own legal bills when they're executives. This has caused a big curfuffle, though. Lawyers are saying that's -- that's not right. Well, of course not.

M. O'BRIEN: No, I should say.

WESTHOVEN: They want the companies picking up the tab...

(CROSSTALK)

M. O'BRIEN: Naturally. They like the deep pockets.

WESTHOVEN: Yes.

M. O'BRIEN: And curfuffle is a good word. Good way to come back from vacation, with a curfuffle.

All right.

Jennifer Westhoven, we'll see you in a bit. Thanks very much.

The next hour of AMERICAN MORNING starts right now.

S. O'BRIEN: The Mideast cease-fire just six hours old. Not all quiet, though, on the Lebanese-Israeli border.

We'll take a look at that this morning.

M. O'BRIEN: "Target: USA." After last week's terror scare, how prepared are we to stop an attack?

KEILAR: I'm Brianna Keilar at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport, where passengers are ready for another day of long security lines. I'll have a live report coming up.

CHO: I'm Alina Cho at New York's Grand Central Station. When it comes to mass transit security, there are holes. We'll tell you where they are and how they can be fixed.

SEAN CALLEBS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Sean Callebs at Port Fourchon in southern Louisiana, the busiest port you probably never heard of. I'll explain why a terrorist attack here could deal a crippling blow to the nation's energy supply.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm Bob Franken in the northern point of the United States, about a mile across the St. Lawrence River, rim of the southern point of Canada, and where people frequently boat across and commonly come undetected.

That's next on AMERICAN MORNING.

S. O'BRIEN: That's our focus, "Target: USA" today.

Good morning, everybody. I'm Soledad O'Brien.

M. O'BRIEN: And I'm Miles O'Brien.

Thanks for being with us on this Monday morning.

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