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Congressman Shays Urging Administration To Set Timeframe for Withdrawing U.S. Troops from Iraq; McCain Denying He's Changed Position on Iraq War; New Report Out On What Went Wrong When Katrina Hit; Democrats Worried About Losing New Jersey Senate Seat; Senator Barack Obama Traveling to Kenya
Aired August 25, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: To our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time.
Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world, to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now, the coming storm -- a tropical depression on the move and gaining strength in the Caribbean. It's 3:00 p.m. along the Gulf Coast, where residents are wondering if another major hurricane is in the making nearly a year after Katrina. We're counting down to the new forecast.
Also this hour, a leading House Republican's about face on Iraq.
Why is former war supporter Representative Chris Shays now pushing for a troop pullout?
It's 4:00 p.m. in Connecticut, where Shays is fighting for his political survival.
And a rising Democratic star finds a new fan base in Africa. It's 11:00 p.m. in Kenya, where Senator Barack Obama is making his first official visit to his father's homeland. And CNN is there with him. We'll go there live.
I'm Wolf Blitzer and you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
First this hour, a new show of Republican anxiety about the Iraq mission less than three months before congressional elections. A leading House Republican who was an ardent supporter of the war is now breaking with the president's stay the course strategy.
Congressman Chris Shays of Connecticut is now urging the administration to set a timeframe for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.
Bill Schneider is standing by with more on the politics of the war in Iraq.
Let's begin our coverage with our Congressional correspondent, Andrea Koppel -- Andrea. ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, when Senate Democrats voted to set a time line for a U.S. troop withdrawal back in June, rank and file Republicans called it tantamount to cutting and running. Now one of their own has also changed his mind.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL (voice-over): Connecticut Republican Chris Shays had been one of the president's biggest boosters on Iraq.
REP. CHRIS SHAYS (R), CONNECTICUT: I support our being in Iraq. I don't care its impact on my election, whether I'm reelected or defeated.
KOPPEL: And on his Web site, after visiting Iraq just last month, Shays said that, "In my judgment, neither Congress or the administration should set definitive time lines for withdrawal."
But how Shays is breaking ranks with Republicans and with President Bush. In a phone interview with CNN, Shays says he now believes timetables must be set.
SHAYS: I believe that the administration needs to set time lines on troop withdrawal but clearly understand we will still have troops there for years.
KOPPEL: Why the shift?
Shays says he's just wrapped up his 14th trip to Iraq and is now convinced a time line is the only way to force Iraq's new government to make tough decisions.
SHAYS: I think it's absolutely essential that the Iraqis understand that this is not an open/shut book that they can draw on for years and years and years. And, more importantly, that they can't draw on our military forces, ad infinitum, year in and year out.
KOPPEL: But this year, the 20-year congressional veteran is also locked in a right race with Democratic challenger Diane Farrell, who told CNN she doesn't buy Shays' change of heart.
"For 13 trips, Chris Shays came back saying progress was being made and supporting the president 100 percent," she said. "Now, on trip 14, 75 days away from election day, he is attempting to nuance his position to have it both ways. I, on the other hand, from day one have called this war a mistake."
Supporting Bush on Iraq was one key reason Connecticut incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman lost this month's Democratic primary to Ned Lamont.
Still, some analysts say Shays' latest shift may not be entirely about politics.
AMY WALTER, "COOK POLITICAL REPORT": What I think that Shays is hoping, clearly, is that this is what voters appreciate about him, right, that they see through all the other political smokescreens to get to the heart of who Chris Shays is, and that's somebody who's just not going to just say or do whatever the political winds suggest he does.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: And while it's still too early to know if Shays will win over enough of those anti-war voters in his district to hold onto his seat, analysts say Republican incumbents in two other Connecticut races are also on shaky ground, placing Connecticut at the epicenter of the Iraq debate this election year.
Amy Walter of "The Cook Political Report" says if Democrats are to succeed in winning back the House this year, they would need to win at least two of those three Connecticut races -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Andrea, thank you very much.
And to our viewers, this is the second time Congressman Shays has faced off against Democrat Diane Farrell. He beat her by only 4 percentage points in their congressional match-up in November of 2004. We'll watch this race closely.
Republican Senator John McCain today is denying he's changed his position on the Iraq War. The possible 2008 presidential contender says he still supports the mission and opposes a premature troop withdrawal despite concerns he raised in Ohio earlier this week.
Here's what Senator McCain said on Tuesday.
Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: It grieves me so much that we have not told the American people how tough and difficult this task would be. And it has contributed enormously to the frustration that Americans feel today because they were led to believe that this would be some kind of a day at the beach, which many of us fully understood from the beginning would be a very, very difficult undertaking.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: In a statement today, McCain says: "I never intended my concern that the American public be fully informed about the conduct and consequences of the war to indicate any lessening of my support for our mission there." On the contrary, he went on and said, "I view a candid informed public discussion of the war as critical to sustaining popular support for the war and thus indispensable to ensuring the ultimate success of our mission."
That clarification from Senator McCain.
Let's get some more now on the Iraq war, the battle for Congress, the politics behind all of this. We'll bring in our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider -- Bill, Democrats and Republicans certainly are divided on the surface when it comes to Iraq.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. After Joe Lieberman's primary defeat in Connecticut, it looked to a lot of people like Democrats were hopelessly divided over Iraq. But, you know, the polling suggests otherwise.
In our latest CNN poll, 91 percent of Democrats express opposition to the war in Iraq. Only 8 percent support the war. Republicans were actually more divided than Democrats. Two thirds of Republicans support the war, but nearly a third of Republicans oppose it. And that number has been growing.
In February, 20 percent of Republicans said they opposed the war. In June, the figure was 25 percent. Now it's up to 31.
Congressman Shays reflects growing criticism of the war within the ranks of the president's own party.
BLITZER: What's the line of division among Republicans when it comes to this issue?
SCHNEIDER: Ideology. A recent poll by the Pew Research Center shows more ideological division among Republicans than among Democrats. Liberal and moderate Democrats are in agreement -- the U.S. should bring the troops home as soon as possible, which suggests that Senator Lieberman was outside the ranks even of moderate Democrats.
Republicans are split. Sixty-three percent of conservative Republicans say the U.S. should keep its troops in Iraq and not set a timetable for withdrawal. Only 38 percent of moderate Republicans feel that way. And Congressman Shays is a moderate, as are many Northeastern Republicans.
I visited his district last month. His Democratic opponent, Diane Farrell, is making President Bush and Iraq the central issues in her campaign. Congressman Shays clearly on the defensive -- Wolf.
BLITZER: We hope he'll join us next week in THE SITUATION ROOM to discuss these issues, as well as Diane Farrell.
Thanks very much, Bill Schneider.
Bill and Andrea Koppel, as you all know by now, are part of the best political team on television. CNN, America's campaign headquarters.
And one more note about Iraq. Tune into our special "LATE EDITION" this Sunday. My special guest, Nouri Al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister. It's a CNN exclusive. You won't want to miss this interview, Sunday, "LATE EDITION," 11:00 a.m. Eastern. "LATE EDITION," the last word in Sunday talk. Let's shift gears dramatically now to the weather and a potential storm threat out there nearly a year to the day after Hurricane Katrina. It's a tropical depression right now, but it's gaining strength in the warm waters of the Caribbean.
Our meteorologist, Reynolds Wolf, is joining us now from the CNN severe weather headquarters -- give our viewers an update, what's going on, Reynolds.
REYNOLDS WOLF, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Absolutely, Wolf.
Here's the latest that we have for you.
We have tropical depression five. And, as you mentioned, it is moving into the eastern half of the Caribbean. Now, just a while ago, we had a hurricane hunter aircraft that flew into this storm and right at level flight was able to detect 50 knot winds.
Now, that translates to the surface of being around 40 miles per hour or so. Now, what that tells us is that this storm system is strengthening and once those winds get to around 40 miles per hour, 39 to 40 miles per hour, it's no longer a tropical depression, but rather a tropical storm.
So it's very likely during our next update this will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto. That's at least what the National Hurricane Center is certainly forecasting. They're expecting this storm to continue its path to the west and by 8:00 a.m. Saturday, again, if not before, it will become a tropical storm.
It should then continue its path to the west, just south of Jamaica, by 8:00 a.m. on Sunday, with maximum sustained winds going from 45 miles per hour to 65 miles per hour. So we're going to see rapid strengthening of this storm system, again, if this forecast plays out.
We continue onward into 8:00 a.m. Monday. The storm just due south of Cuba. And then as we go from Monday into Tuesday, this storm then punching out into the Gulf of Mexico, right between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Now, again, the path takes it even deeper into the Gulf of Mexico, where warm water awaits. Water temperatures mingling into the low to mid, even some upper, 80s, with a minimal shear environment. Should that happen, and if the storm system plays out and makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico, that could be big trouble for many people living along the Gulf Coast.
So it's something we've got to watch very, very carefully. But one good thing about this, Wolf, is there's still that cone of probability, meaning that you have a margin of error where the storm could move a little bit more to the north. If that happens and it moves through Cuba, runs into the upper elevations into those -- that higher terrain, there is a chance this storm could just fall apart altogether.
Let's keep our fingers crossed, but at the same time, let's be careful and watch it, very careful.
BLITZER: Is it too early for people on the Gulf Coast, whether in Texas or Florida or Louisiana or any place along the Gulf Coast to already start thinking of some protections or should they wait?
WOLF: Well, that's a great question.
My opinion would be go ahead and take those protections right now. I mean, Wolf, we've got still, from now until November 30th, for the season to play out. And like last year, you'll remember the season extended beyond November 30th, which is the normal end of the hurricane season.
So, we're really just getting things revved up. We've got a lot of time ahead of us and I say the more prepared you are, the better you'll be.
BLITZER: One more quick question.
Exactly, almost exactly at this time last year, we were at Katrina, K and this tropical depression is going to be E, Ernesto.
What, if anything, does that say that we're obviously at a lower level of the alphabet at this point this year as opposed to last year? Should we draw any conclusions from that?
WOLF: Absolutely not. And, you know, I think it's a great thing you bring up. And I think we need to just do away with the sheer numbers of storms we've had or that we haven't had.
I mean, think of this for a moment. If we had a record breaking season -- let's say we had 20, 25 named storms and that they all stayed out in the middle of the ocean, it's not a big deal. But if you have a really slow season and you happen to have three major storms and they all hit big population clusters, you have, say, a Katrina or an Andrew or a Hugo, which is worse?
To me, I say the ones that affect us on the coastline is worse.
So, again, it only takes one or two or three big storms to make it a disastrous season. Let's not worry about the sheer numbers.
BLITZER: Reynolds Wolf, thanks very much.
WOLF: You've got it.
BLITZER: Reynolds is going to be a very busy guy, together with all of our meteorologists, over the next several days.
Reynolds, thank you.
The possible threat from Ernesto comes four days before the Gulf Coast marks one year since Hurricane Katrina.
On this day a year ago, Katrina was upgraded to hurricane status and it made landfall in South Florida. A lot of us remember that. Six people were killed there before the storm moved onto Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.
When Katrina hit, National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield was a voice of authority and calm, as he always has been over these many, many years.
Mayfield is about to formally announce that he's retiring in January. He's going to join us live in our next hour to talk about his plans and to talk about the immediate storm season, the big issues facing all of us right now.
In New Orleans right now, a new report is out on what went wrong when Katrina hit. And there are new questions about whether the city will be ready if another monster storm strikes.
CNN's Sean Callebs is in New Orleans -- Sean.
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the complex construction on floodgates, pumps and improvements on the levee system in and around New Orleans haven't been tested since Hurricane Katrina, but that could all change with the storm that is now brewing off the coast in the Atlantic, and that potential storm has the attention of people living here.
One big concern, how will these levees hold up?
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, in charge of maintaining the levee system, says it's going to be at least as strong as it was before Katrina.
But a number of professional organizations, engineering and scientific, who have been monitoring the Corps' work, say they aren't so convinced and they warn if a storm threatens this area, people should evacuate, especially those living in flimsy FEMA trailers.
Well, how is the city set for evacuate plans?
Much better than it was before Hurricane Katrina.
There are some 1,800 buses at the city's disposal to move those people who don't have cars out of the area. Also, some 47 Amtrak trains in a deal the city has cut with Amtrak. Those trains will also take people out of this area.
Where will they go?
Baton Rouge says it can't handle a huge number of people evacuating this area. One place we know they are not going to go -- the Superdome, as well as the convention center. This year, city officials are adamant. They say there will be no refuge of last resort. So if people wait until the last minute, they could be stuck here, for better or for worse -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, Sean, thanks very much.
And don't forget Max Mayfield. He'll be live here in THE SITUATION ROOM talking about the current storm. That's coming up in the next hour right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Let's turn now to an update on the health of the nation's oldest living former president, Gerald Ford. Today, he underwent an angioplasty procedure to increase blood flow to his coronary arteries. His spokeswoman says it was successful. The 93-year-old former president is said to be resting comfortably at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota.
Earlier this week, he was fitted with a pacemaker to regulate his heartbeat. And we wish President Ford a speedy, speedy recovery.
Jack Cafferty is off today.
No worries, though. He'll be back with "The Cafferty File" next week.
Coming up next, more international troops landing in Lebanon.
But will they be able to keep the peace between Israel and Hezbollah?
And her husband campaigned for Joe Lieberman.
So why is Senator Hillary Clinton meeting with Ned Lamont today?
The answer in today's "Political Radar."
Plus, much more on that potential threat to the Gulf Coast. We're tracking the tropical depression in the Caribbean and we'll update you throughout our program. We're standing by for a brand new forecast.
Stay with us.
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Zain Verjee is joining us with a closer look at some other important stories making news -- hi, Zain.
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, Wolf.
Europe is promising to provide about half of the troops needed to keep the peace in Southern Lebanon. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan says European foreign ministers meeting in Brussels have pledged to provide nearly 7,000 troops to the peacekeeping force of 15,000. But French President Jacques Chirac says he doesn't think the U.N. needs to send so many troops. However, he says France will increase its commitment to the force from 400 troops to 2,000.
U.S. officials have launched a probe into allegations that Israel used American-made cluster bombs in Southern Lebanon. The U.S. sold the weapons to Israel with special restrictions attached. The Reagan administration temporarily banned the sale of cluster bombs to Israel after it used the munitions during the 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Israel says all the weapons used in this year's Lebanese offensive were allowed under international law.
We're going to bring you a full report from the Pentagon on this next hour.
A new poll shows most Israelis want Prime Minister Olmert to resign. The survey by an Israeli newspaper reports that Israelis are upset Mr. Olmert ended the offensive in Lebanon without crushing Hezbollah and without rescuing two kidnapped Israeli soldiers.
Meanwhile, hundreds of Army Reservists gather at the grave of the former prime minister, Golda Meir, to urge Mr. Olmert to follow her example. She resigned after the Israeli Army suffered setbacks during the 1973 War against Syria and Egypt.
At least eight people died today in Iraq in attacks launched as Muslims headed to Friday prayers. Three of the victims died when gunmen fired on a bakery in Tikrit, the hometown of deposed leader Saddam Hussein.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials say putting thousands of extra U.S. troops on the streets of Baghdad has lowered the level of violence there -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Zain, thank you very much.
Zain Verjee reporting.
And this reminder. You won't want to miss our special "LATE EDITION" this Sunday. Nouri Al-Maliki, the prime minister of Iraq, joins us for an exclusive interview. That's "LATE EDITION," this Sunday, 11:00 a.m. Eastern.
Let's get a quick check of our "Political Radar" this Friday.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is offering additional support for Democrat Ned Lamont's campaign to defeat Senator Joe Lieberman. Senator Clinton met with Lamont at her home in Chappaqua, New York. It was their first face-to-face since Lamont defeated Liebermann in Connecticut's Democratic primary.
No reporters, no TV cameras were allowed in the meeting. But a Clinton spokeswoman tells CNN -- spokesman, that is, tells CNN that the senator offered to host a fundraiser for Lamont down the road.
A Liebermann spokesman dismisses that as old partisan politics. Senator Clinton and her husband supported Liebermann over Lamont in the primary and former President Clinton even campaigned for Liebermann. But now both oppose Liebermann's decision to run-as an independent this fall and they are now backing Lamont.
We'll see how strongly they actually do back Lamont.
In Connecticut, some Democrats now apparently have failed in their attempt to boot Liebermann out of the party. The Democratic registrar in Lieberman's hometown of New Haven has rejected a petition by anti-war activities to strike him from the party rolls. In her decision, the registrar says, "The authority to expel a party member should be rarely and cautiously exercised."
Up next, much more on that meeting between Senator Clinton and Ned Lamont.
Why was the news media left out? Why were there no cameras allowed, no photographs?
I'll ask two experts, Donna Brazile and Terry Jeffrey, what's going on.
Plus, the political turnaround on Iraq -- why is former war supporter Chris Shays now pushing for a pullout?
That's all coming up in today's "Strategy Session."
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM.
I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.
In today's "Strategy Session," are leading lawmakers changing their tune on staying the course in Iraq and will the Iraq war cause political fallout in November?
Joining us now, our CNN contributor and Democratic strategist, Donna Brazile. And Terry Jeffrey, the editor of "Human Events" online.
Guys, thanks very much for coming in.
Chris Shays, a moderate Republican from Connecticut, fighting for his political life right now, a tough campaign he's underground. He comes back from, what, his 14th trip, probably more than any other member of the House has made to Iraq over the past three years, his 14th trip. And this is what he now says.
Listen to what he told Andrea Koppel earlier.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SHAYS: I think it's absolutely essential that the Iraqis understand that this is not an open-shut book that they can draw on for years and years and years. And, more importantly, that they can't draw on our military forces ad infinitum, year in, year out.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: All right, what do you make of this?
A pretty, think, significant about face for Chris Shays.
DONNA BRAZILE, CNN CONTRIBUTOR, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Absolutely.
Look, Chris Shays was one of the president's staunchest supporters and the Iraq war. He has resisted any call for a timetable, a redeployment of the troops. He comes back now. He's had an election year conversion. He's facing a very tough race. As you know, Diane Farrell barely lost to him two years ago.
So, I think Chris Shays is now joining Michael Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, who yesterday said that he is going to vote no on the president's stay the course strategy.
So there's a mini revolt taking place within the Republican ranks right now.
BLITZER: Especially some of those so-called moderate Republicans in the Northeast, who face a tough reelection campaign.
What do you think, Terry?
TERRY JEFFREY, EDITOR, "HUMAN EVENTS": Well, Wolf, I think you've got to give Chris Shays credit for due diligence on Iraq. As you say, he's been over there 14 times. You have to figure there's a real factual foundation to his position.
But his problem is not that the position he took today is fundamentally unreasonable nor is the position he took a month ago unreasonable. His problem is that his positions are 180 percent different over the course of a month and in between there what you had was that Ned Lamont won a Democratic primary in his state over Joe Lieberman on the issue of the war and Chris Shays could lose in November on the war.
So he has a real...
BLITZER: So you're saying this is politics, pure politics on his part?
JEFFREY: Well, I think Chris Shays has a real burden between now and November in convincing people that his shift in position on Iraq was based and principal and his knowledge of the situation on the ground and not opportunistic politics. Because from a distance, it does look like opportunistic politics.
BLITZER: All right, let's talk about another politician out there who may want to be president of the United States one day. That would be John McCain.
This is what he said today. And I'll put it up on the screen and read it.
"I have never intended my concern that the American public be fully informed about the conduct and consequences of the war to indicate any lessening of my support for our mission there. On the contrary, I view a candid informed public discussion of the war as critical to sustaining popular support for the war, and thus indispensable to ensuring the ultimate success of our mission."
He said that -- he released this statement, Donna, because earlier in the week, while campaigning in Ohio for Senator Mike DeWine, he said this. And I'll play it for our viewers.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: Stuff happens. Mission accomplished. Last throes. A few dead-enders.
I'm more familiar with those statements than anyone else, because it grieves me so much that we have not told the American people how tough and difficult this task would be.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Those statements, "stuff happens," "mission accomplished," "last throes," "a few dead-enders," statements from the president, the vice president, the secretary of defense...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: And he was saying you know what? You shouldn't mislead the American people, this is not going to be a day at the beach.
Do you see a contradiction in the clarification he released today with what he said earlier in the week?
BRAZILE: Well, it appears that the Republicans are now cutting and running from President Bush and Secretary Rumsfeld and Vice President Cheney on the war.
John McCain is absolutely correct. I mean, what -- the administration has painted a rosy picture. Now they are even trying to pull back. And what McCain and others are finally realizing is what Democrats have been saying for a long time. We need an exit strategy. We need to plan for our redeployment. And perhaps now the Republicans will finally listen to Democrats and have a responsible public debate.
Explain John McCain to our viewers, Terry.
(LAUGHTER)
JEFFREY: Well, first of all, John McCain isn't calling for an exit strategy. But I will give him a break on this.
McCain has been critical of the president's strategy in Iraq. He has actually called for sending more troops over there. But I think what...
BLITZER: He has also been critical of Donald Rumsfeld's policies personally, too.
(CROSSTALK)
JEFFREY: Yes, he has. He has been very -- it was specific criticisms. He's another guy who's over there and sees the situation on the ground.
But the fact is, Wolf, probably what happens in Iraq is going to determined as much by politics here as politics over there. Your guest on Sunday, Mr. Maliki, has to get the Sunnis to stop their insurgency and stop Muqtada al-Sadr from sectarian violence.
But politicians in this country have to convince the American people that there's going to be political progress there that justifies the Americans continuing to take casualties.
If the Democrats take back the White House in '08 on an anti-war candidacy, we're out of there, and we could have chaos in Iraq. So, I think we do need politicians, like John McCain, who are going to try and explain, clearly and honestly, what's going and what the stakes are...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: He does an excellent job explaining John McCain.
Now it's your turn to...
BRAZILE: Well...
BLITZER: No, not to explain John McCain, because I want to move on -- unless you want to make a quick point.
BRAZILE: First of all, there's already chaos in Iraq, with sectarian violence all over the country. And I don't think, if a Democrat takes over in 2008, that will lead to any more violence than there is today.
JEFFREY: If they pulled out, it would. If they pulled out, it would.
(CROSSTALK)
BRAZILE: We don't know that. It's time for us to let the Iraqi security forces step up. And we will find out on Sunday if they have a plan for that.
BLITZER: All right, "LATE EDITION" this Sunday.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: But we will talk about that later.
BRAZILE: All right.
BLITZER: Let's talk right now about Hillary Clinton. She meets today in her home in Chappaqua, in Upstate New York, not far from Connecticut, with Ned Lamont, the Democratic candidate, but you know what? No pictures. Is that like a tree falling and nobody is there?
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: What's going on? Why doesn't she want to be photographed with Ned Lamont? Is this an issue?
BRAZILE: Oh, absolutely not.
I think what Mrs. Clinton wanted to do was to have an intimate sit-down coffee with the Lamonts. This is her first time meeting Ned Lamont and his wife, Annie. Howard Wolfson was there. He's one of the best Democratic strategists.
It's clear to me that Mrs. Clinton is going to not only back Lamont, but back him with a little energy, a little gravitas. Howard will go over to serve as one of the strategic advisers to the campaign. She's going to raise money. And I am sure, down the line, we will see Mrs. Clinton with Ned Lamont.
JEFFREY: Wolf, Hillary is doing in slow motion what Chris Shays may have done today in rapid fashion.
Chris Shays had to do it. He's got an election in November. Hillary's eyes are on the Democratic nomination for 2008. She's between a rock and a hard place. When she went into the Senate, she realized she had to have credibility on national security to be a nominee, let alone win a general election, went on to the Armed Services Committee, aggressively defended the Iraq war.
Now I believe she sees she may not be able get the Democratic nomination as a pro-war candidate. I predict, one year from now, Hillary will be one of the leading anti-war candidates running for the Democratic nomination. What she did with Ned Lamont today was one incremental step on the way to positioning herself to be that anti-war candidate.
BRAZILE: But she been a persistent critic of this war. And she has never held her tongue.
JEFFREY: Like John McCain.
BRAZILE: Unlike Joe Lieberman, who held his tongue...
BLITZER: All right.
BRAZILE: Mrs. Clinton has always...
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: We got to leave it there, guys.
JEFFREY: She's doing a 180. Watch.
BRAZILE: The president mishandled this war.
BLITZER: Terry and Donna, thanks very much. Have a great weekend.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: Up next, we are going to take a quick break and get some -- to some other issues. We're going to think a quick break right now.
Oh, actually, we want to go to Reynolds Wolf right now, our meteorologist. He's got some developing news.
WOLF: That's right, Wolf.
We just have some new information that came in from the National Hurricane Center. Tropical Depression Five is now Tropical Storm Ernesto, with maximum sustained winds at 40 miles per hour, still drifting to the west-northwest at 16 miles an hour. The storm is strengthening, just like we expected, and, again, expected to continue its track more to the west.
We are going to have more updates on this storm story, as we make our way through the evening, overnight, as long as it takes. But there is no question at all that it is strengthening -- this just in from the National Hurricane Center. We now have Tropical Storm Ernesto -- back to you, Wolf.
BLITZER: So, it's official. It's a tropical storm, Ernesto.
WOLF: It's the real deal.
BLITZER: And it...
WOLF: Yes, sir.
BLITZER: But the forecast, this latest forecast that just came out, shows it's still moving towards the Gulf of Mexico by midweek?
WOLF: Well, we still have a long way to go. We have got a very, very long way to go for that -- to know exactly where it is headed.
Again, right now, this is listed as Tropical Storm Ernesto. As you can see, it is expected to make that path going towards the Gulf of Mexico. And we want people to be aware that certainly could happen, Wolf.
But, still, that is a long way away. We have got a lot of hurdles to go through, a couple of islands, Jamaica, through the Caymans, Cuba itself. So, a lot of things could happen. But, yes, to answer your original question, the path indeed does take it into the Gulf of Mexico, as we get to Tuesday afternoon.
That's the latest.
BLITZER: All right, Reynolds, thanks very much. We will stand by and get some more information.
This note to our viewers -- in our next hour, the national hurricane director, Max Mayfield, he will join us live. He will keep us up to date on the storm threat in the Caribbean right now, and his own plans to retire. That's coming up.
Stay with us. You are in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: And we're following the developing story, an important story our viewers are going to be interested in, Ernesto.
It's now the fifth declared storm of this hurricane season. Ernesto is now a tropical storm. It has moved up from tropical depression. It's in the Caribbean, moving toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, right now. It's expected to move toward the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. Tropical Storm Ernesto is now in the books.
Much more on this story coming up -- our Reynolds Wolf, our meteorologist, will have the latest forecast.
Also, in the next hour, right here in THE SITUATION ROOM, Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center, he will join us live. He will move back to politics, though.
In the meantime, New Jersey voters have seen their share of rough-and-tumble politics. And, right now, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is taking his licks. Menendez got his job when Jon Corzine left the Senate to become the governor of New Jersey. And now Democrats are very worried they possibly could lose the seat.
Let's bring back our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider -- Bill.
SCHNEIDER: Wolf, this year, New Jersey had a government shutdown and then a tax hike. So, what do you think voters are angry about?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice-over): New Jersey never voted for George W. Bush. It hasn't elected a Republican to the United States Senate since 1972. This year, appointed Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is running for a full term. You would think Democrats would have no trouble holding on to his seat, but:
JOHN WEINGART, ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, EAGLETON INSTITUTE: It's closer than you would think it would be.
SCHNEIDER: In June, Menendez was leading. In July, his Republican opponent had pulled slightly ahead. What happened? A bitter budget showdown shut down state government for a week.
It ended when a Democratic governor and legislature made a deal to raise taxes. Here's one theory. The ghost of Jim Florio is haunting New Jersey. Former Governor Florio, a Democrat, championed a record-breaking tax hike in 1990. Protests erupted.
Angry voters threw Florio and the Democrats out of office. Democratic Senator Bill Bradley nearly lost his reelection bid. Is the same thing happening to Menendez? There are no massive protests, like 1990. What New Jersey does have is a serious financial crisis.
WEINGART: There was a sense that something that needed to be done.
SCHNEIDER: Here's another theory: names.
WEINGART: New Jersey has several saints. And, you know, Bruce Springsteen and Tom Kean Sr. are among the few.
SCHNEIDER: Former Governor Tom Kean Sr. is one of the last living liberal Republicans. He was co-chairman of the 9/11 Commission. The Republican Senate candidate this year is Tom Kean Jr.
WEINGART: When people run for office in New Jersey as Republicans, and are too conservative, the line has gotten to be, well, he's no Tom Kean. I think you could say that of his son.
SCHNEIDER: Menendez claims he's George Bush.
SEN. ROBERT MENENDEZ (D), NEW JERSEY: Do I want to send a senator to Washington that will support the president blindly, or do I want a senator who will stand up to the president?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Recent polls show about half of New Jersey voters don't know much about either Kean or Menendez. They are just responding to the names -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Bill Schneider, reporting for us, thanks very much.
And this note to our viewers: Stay with THE SITUATION ROOM throughout this entire political season, because we are going to bring you all the close races, all the latest information, all the political news you need to know.
Coming up: the only African-American in the United States Senate making his first official trip to his father's homeland in Africa. Is Democratic Senator Barack Obama as popular there as he is here? We are going to go live to Kenya, and we will find out.
And later: primary agony in the race for the White House. Who will feel a change in the calendar more, the candidates or the news media?
Stay with us. You are in THE SITUATION ROOM.
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BLITZER: Let's check in with Zain Verjee once again. She has got a closer look at other stories making news -- Zain.
VERJEE: Wolf, a few air scares to tell you about right now. Police are trying to find out why a man on board a Continental Airlines flight was carrying a stick of dynamite in his luggage. Customs agents found the dynamite on a plane en route from Argentina to New Jersey. They say the man is a U.S. citizen from Connecticut who is going to college in Pennsylvania. He told police that he purchased the dynamite as a souvenir while he was touring a mine in Bolivia.
An American Airlines flight bound from Manchester, England, to Chicago remains on the ground in Bangor, Maine. The plane was diverted because of an unspecified security threat. Investigators are checking the passengers, the crew, and the cargo.
The man suspected of murdering 6-year-old JonBenet Ramsey will make his first appearance in a Colorado court on Monday. Forty-one- year-old John Mark Karr is being held in the Boulder County jail. He arrived from California last night. Karr will be represented by a public defender, who has asked a judge to seal any samples of Karr's handwriting.
Firefighters in Washington state are battling blazes that have destroyed at least two homes and blackened more than 100 square miles of land. More than 300 people have been evacuated, ahead of the wildfires, in the eastern part of Washington state. The mayor of one rural town was arrested for trying to force his way through a police barricade, so he could try and protect his property -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Zain, thank you very much -- Zain Verjee reporting.
Senator Barack Obama is making a political statement today, not here in Washington, or in his home state of Illinois, but in his father's homeland in Kenya. The Democrat is urging Kenyans to fight government corruption. And, along the way, he's being treated like a hero.
Our Africa correspondent, Jeff Koinange, is joining us now live from Kenya more.
Jeff, what's it like? You are covering Senator Barack Obama in his father's homeland of Kenya. What's he doing there? How is it coming along?
JEFF KOINANGE, CNN AFRICA CORRESPONDENT: I will tell you what. The only way to describe this situation right now is rock star status.
That's exactly how he's being treated. We are here in the town of Kisumu, right on the Lake Victoria, right in western Kenya. And the people here -- this is where his father grew up. And the people cannot wait the next 12 hours or so, when Senator Barack Obama arrives here.
T-shirts are being printed. Hats are being given out. There's even a local beer called the Senator brewed by a local company. It has been nicknamed the Obama. This is how the people feel about their favorite son. He's a local hero, a small-town hero, a man who went away and came back. And they see him as genuinely one of their own, Wolf. They cannot wait for Saturday to come, when the man comes home for the first time as senator.
BLITZER: Now, he's making a statement, also, on a very, very serious issue in Africa, indeed, a lot of places around the world, but especially in Africa, namely AIDS and HIV.
Tell our viewers, Jeff, what he is personally doing to underscore the critical nature of this issue?
KOINANGE: Very good point, Wolf.
Tomorrow, after he lands here in the town of Kisumu, the first thing he's going to do, go to a hospital and take an AIDS test, a very controversial thing here in Kenya, where over two million people have died of AIDS, where AIDS affects about five percent of the population -- people afraid to go and have an HIV test.
He is going to go have that HIV test, before going home to see his family members, Wolf. It's going to be a very, very strong statement, telling people, go out, get a test. You need to know your status, just so that the country could know where to go from here -- Wolf.
BLITZER: And, in Kenya, is he well known, Senator Barack Obama, because he's clearly becoming a lot better known here in the United States? A lot of people think he has a huge political future ahead of him. But what about back in Kenya, his father's homeland?
KOINANGE: I'll tell you what, Wolf. Two -- a couple of -- a few years ago, when he last came, he literally flew in, went to introduce his new bride to his family, flew out. Nobody knew anything about Barack Obama.
This time around, Wolf, for the last three weeks -- I will give you a quick example. We arrived about a day before the senator did. At the airport, from the immigration officials, to the baggage handlers, to the taxi drivers, they all kept asking us, hey, was Senator Obama on your flight?
Can you imagine that? That's how the mood is in the country. Everyone wants to see him. Everyone wants to just touch him, look at him, whatever it is. The radio stations, TV stations, everybody is talking about one thing, and one thing alone, Wolf: Obama.
BLITZER: His mother, I think, is from Kansas. His father is from Kenya. He's a senator from Illinois.
Jeff Koinange is our man in Africa. He's going to have a lot more coming up on this during our 7:00 p.m. Eastern hour.
Jeff, thank you very much for that.
Up next: As of now, all systems appear to be go for this weekend's launch of the space shuttle. We are going to get the situation online when we come back.
And we now have Tropical Storm Ernesto. You are going to be hearing a lot about Ernesto over the next few days. We're going to tell you where it is now, where it's heading -- all that coming up.
Stay with us. You are in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back.
The space shuttle Discovery's mission to the International Space Station in July was all by -- was, by all accounts, a success. Now it's Atlantis' turn. The shuttle is counting down to a Sunday launch.
Our Internet reporter, Jacki Schechner, has the story -- Jacki.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, what you are watching is animation of the construction of the International Space Station from NASA.
And this is why the Atlantis mission is so important. It is going to be the first time in four years that a component is going to be added on to the space station. There are six astronauts, five Americans and one Canadian. They have been training four years for this 11-day mission. They are going to be adding on a second set of solar panels. Those are going to be coming up. They look like this. They are going to come along the side here, as you watch this animation.
That will double the amount of power that the space station can generate from sunlight. These are big things. They span 240 feet. They weigh 17 tons. You can see them right here. They have to be folded in half in order to fit into the cargo bay of the shuttle. And, then, they're unfolded when they're installed.
Now, the launch is scheduled for 4:30 on Sunday. But there is actually a 40 percent it may not happen, due to thunderstorms in the area.
You can go to NASA.gov, follow along online. They have some interactive displays for you, to find out exactly what is going to happen day by day. And they have a blog that is going to start six hours before liftoff -- Wolf.
BLITZER: We will watch it take off on Sunday. Thanks very much, Jacki, for that.
Still to come: The hard life of Democratic politicians and journalists on the presidential campaign trail may get a little easier in 2008. Or will it? We will take a closer look at the consequences of the Democratic decision to shake up the traditional order of the state primaries.
Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: It has been nearly a week since the Democratic Party took a big step towards shaking up presidential primary tradition. A new plan would squeeze contests in Nevada and South Carolina into the first wave of 2008 presidential caucuses and primaries.
Our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, already is trying to get his '08 travel plans straight -- Jeff.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Wolf, the Democrats have radically altered their presidential selection calendar. And all the talk is, what does this mean for Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, John Kerry, Mark Warner, Al Gore? Well, frankly, who cares?
The real question is, what does this mean for people like me, the press? You really want to know? You don't want to know.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Back, please. Back, please.
GREENFIELD (voice-over): The current process is simple, insane, but simple. Candidates and the press trudge through snowbanks in Iowa, skid their rented cars off icy roads, fatten the wallets of restaurant and hotel owners.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And I believe in Dean. And nothing you say is going to move me.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GREENFIELD: Then watch on caucus night, as a relative handful of eligible voters foolishly leave their warm homes and pack overheated school lunchrooms and libraries.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WESLEY CLARK, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you very much.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GREENFIELD: Then, it's off to New Hampshire for eight days, where the climate is pretty much the same. There's a reason why the guys who wrote "Moonlight in Vermont" never wrote "Sleet Storms in New Hampshire." But, OK, at least the weather is the same.
But, in 2008, here is what will happen. We go to frozen Iowa, then immediately fly halfway across the country to Nevada, a desert, where, outside of the mountains, there really isn't that much snow, and not much need for long underwear either, and where the impulse to cover the candidates and spend long hours exchanging information and gossip with political operatives will have some competition.
That Nevada caucus is Saturday night. Then it's a red-eye flight across the continent to New Hampshire, where it's cold again, and icy again, and snowy again, and where there's a primary where the polls open about 60 hours after the Nevada caucus ends. Then, it's off to South Carolina -- southern, sunny South Carolina -- for a primary a week after New Hampshire. Have you ever walked the streets of beautiful downtown Charleston in mukluks and Gore-Tex?
(on camera): Oh, sure, there are a couple of other minor questions here, like, will the candidates be able to offer the voters a coherent message, when they're afflicted with jet lag, pneumonia, and frostbite? And did the founding fathers really mean it to be a constitutional requirement that Iowa and New Hampshire always go first?
But we're talking really important stuff here, folks, like my personal comfort and well-being, which is why, once again, I have joined with my "TIME" magazine colleague Joe Klein to co-chair the Committee of Concerned Journalists to Begin the Process in Hawaii -- Wolf.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: I'm with you, Jeff.
Thank you very much, Jeff Greenfield, part of the best political team on television -- CNN, America's campaign headquarters.
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