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American Morning

Foley Fallout; Foley Scandal Hits Home; Al-Masri: Dead Or Alive?; Arm The Teachers?; Spinach Search; Threat Closes Schools; Minding Your Business

Aired October 05, 2006 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Anxiety around the country among Republicans was already palpable. But now there are new questions about whether or not the House speaker's office was warned long ago about Mark Foley's questionable conduct, and that is raising new questions about the House speaker's political future.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BASH, (voice over): A top House Republican aide says he warned the House speaker's chief of staff more than two years ago that Mark Foley was having inappropriate contact with pages, well before GOP leaders say they knew about it. The aide making this new claim is Kirk Fordham, who was then Mark Foley's chief of staff. Fordham's attorney tells CNN, Fordham told the speaker's top aide, Scott Palmer (ph), that he was worried about Foley's conduct with pages. The attorney would not give specifics of the conversation.

In a statement Fordham says, "even prior to the existence of the Foley e-mail exchanges, I had more than one conversation with senior staff at the highest levels of the House of Representatives asking them to intervene when I was informed of Mr. Foley's inappropriate behavior."

If true, this would contradict a time line the speaker's office released over the weekend, saying it only found out about Foley's conduct at the end of 2005, after a former page complained he got an e-mail from Foley asking for a picture. But the speaker's chief of staff flatly denies that Fordham had warned him about Foley's conduct, saying, "what Kirk Fordham said did not happen."

Fordham dropped this political bomb hours after he resigned as chief of staff to New York Congressman Tom Reynolds. The new charge put the speaker back on the defensive as senior GOP lawmakers continued to distance themselves from him. The number three Republican, Congressman Roy Blunt, seemed to take a shot at Hastert, telling reporters back home in Missouri he would have handled the Foley matter differently had he known about it.

"You have to be curious, you have to ask all the questions you can think of," Blunt said.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: Now that disarray within the House Republican leadership and these new disputes about who knew what when about Mark Foley's conduct all has many, many Republicans in really tough reelection campaigns extremely nervous. Even more nervous than they were yesterday. And now one question about where this goes might be, at least the beginning of the answer could be this morning, at least we could get a hint. Because the House Ethics Committee is going to meet for the first time since being charged with investigating this. But it is unclear how far they'll take it. We'll get some more information about that early this morning.

Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Dana Bash at the Capitol, thank you.

Soledad.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Of course, what Dana refers to right there, is just how this scandal is going to impact the congressional elections just 33 days away and counting. CNN national correspondent Bob Franken is in West Palm Beach, Florida, which, of course, is the heart of the now disgraced congressman's district.

Bob, good morning.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

And let's choose a word that describes Florida 16. How about confused.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANKEN, (voice over): While the Mark Foley story has serious national political implications, it's having a strong impact here at the local level, too. Certainly now at the parochial school Foley attended during the period of time his lawyer claims he was molested by a clergyman. A one-time priest and counselor at Cardinal Newman High School, who knows Foley well, told CNN's Rusty Dornin the ex- congressman was a workaholic who showed no signs of ever having been abused.

REV. BILL BROOKS, FORMER SCHOOL COUNSELOR: Perhaps I'm naive, but Mark and I have a very strong relationship that grew as he grew, and especially into politics. I don't know . . .

RUSTY DORNIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Do you believe it happened?

BROOKS: It could have happened. I don't know. I can't say it happened or it didn't happen.

FRANKEN: Florida Governor Jeb Bush says Foley's various explanations are really just smoke screens.

GOV. JEB BUSH, (R) FLORIDA: There is no justifiable reason to do what he did. And I'm assuming that part of that is just to provide some cloak of legal protection, which, in our country, anybody has a right to attempt to do.

FRANKEN: For years, while Foley stayed officially in the closet, his sexual preference was an open secret. His refusal to step out antagonized those who felt it betrayed the gay community.

TONY PLAKAS, GAY RIGHTS SUPPORTER: When you have a politician that can do a lot for themselves and the community around them, you want them to be authentic because you think it makes a place for gays and lesbians to feel comfortable being out.

FRANKEN: The scandal affects politics all over the country. Certainly here in the 16th district of Florida, which had been considered safe for Republicans. Joe Negron, his replacement, was added too late for his name to be on the ballot instead of Foley's. And even the party chairman does not hold out much hope.

SID DINERSTEIN, REPUBLICAN CHAIRMAN, PALM BEACH COUNTY: It is very possible that there are some voters who would have voted for our side, who would say, you know, you guys just upset me too much. I feel that there is a certain amount of trust I had in you, which maybe at this moment is not deserved. My answer is, I understand that.

FRANKEN: Some think there should be signs at polling places to explain that a vote for Mark Foley is not really a vote for Mark Foley.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FRANKEN: The Board of Elections says, however, that that would be illegal. That such signs must be 100 feet away from the polling places. Just add that, Soledad, to the list of problems for the Republicans.

S. O'BRIEN: Yes, it's a long and growing list, Bob. Bob Franken for us this morning. Thanks, Bob.

So how will the Foley page scandal affect the midterm races across the country? At the half hour we're going to take the pulse of the nation starting with the implications in a tight congressional race in Ohio.

Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Dead or alive. U.S. military officers say they do not believe the new leader of al Qaeda in Iraq has been killed. This contradicts earlier reports he died in a raid. CNN's Michael Ware with more from Baghdad.

Michael.

MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Miles.

Just hours ago, very speculative reports emerged that the al Qaeda in Iraq leader, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, had, in fact, been killed by U.S. forces. However, it didn't take long before the U.S. military came back and said, no, that's not, in fact, the case. That they feel that there's no substance behind those reports.

What we know from a very messy and confusing picture, very typical of the war here in Iraq, is that a raid was launched by U.S. forces recently, perhaps just a couple of days ago, targeting a location where it was thought al-Masri may have been. During the engagement there, several terrorists were killed. The U.S. military spokesman says subsequent investigation of the scene, identification of the bodies, now leads the military to thinking it's highly unlikely al-Masri is dead. In fact, a U.S. military spokesman told us that, in fact, the U.S. military believes al-Masri is still alive and did not die in recent coalition forces operations.

Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Michael, give us a sense of the structure of al Qaeda in Iraq. Is it a top-down organization that is dependent on a single leader, or is it a disperse series of cells as the regular al Qaeda is?

WARE: Al Qaeda in Iraq here is a very tight-knit organization, but extremely fluid. It's like a lizard with a tail. You can pull the tail off and somehow the tail grows back.

Everything is stovepiped or compartmentalized. So one structure or one wing of the organization doesn't necessarily know about the other. Even within military terms, a company, or a group of soldiers, groups within that company of soldiers don't even know about the other groups or can't lead you to them.

Yet there is command and control from the center. Messages are passed down. Broad targeting frameworks are passed down. Ideology. There's also coordination with other Iraqi insurgent groups and other al Qaeda elements in other parts of the country. So there is a well- structured, sophisticated organization, but it's very, very fluid. It's like, for the American forces, trying to hold water in the palm of your hand.

Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Michael Ware in Baghdad, thank you.

Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: In America this morning, the alleged triggerman in the shooting of those five Duquesne basketball players will face their accusers in a Pittsburgh court. Derek Lee and William Holmes face attempted homicide charges. The shootings were allegedly sparked by an argument over a girl after a campus party.

In Louisiana, the owners of St. Rita's Nursing Home where 35 people died in the flooding that following Hurricane Katrina have pleaded not guilty to all of the charges against them. Salvador Mangano, and his wife Mabel, are charged with negligent homicide and cruelty to the infirm.

In Georgia, a sex offender who's wanted by Virginia police was found living in a hole in the ground behind an elementary school. Police say they got a tip that Timothy Primrose (ph) was hiding in the 4x8 six-foot deep hole. Primrose is expected -- you see pictures of the hole right there. He's expected to be extradited back to Virginia.

Let's turn to Texas now. A tense overnight hostage situation has just ended. The swat teams surrounded a house where a man holding a baby as a hostage was barricaded. The unidentified man reportedly shot three people before the standoff began.

In New York City, the t-shaped steel beam, which is known as the Ground Zero cross, is moving. The 20-foot beam moving just three blocks to St. Peter's Church.

Meanwhile, New York City's mayor, Michael Bloomberg, has been tapped to head the World Trade Memorial Foundation.

Central Ohio is recovering from severe storms this morning. Trees and power lines no match for the wind and the hail. It was described as being the size of ping-pong balls. The hail and the rain and the wind so severe, the traffic came to a halt on many roads and lightning strikes also caused heavy damage. Take a look at this. That's a barn. A 100-year-old barn. Pretty much turned into kindling after it was hit by a lightning bolt.

All that brings us right to the forecast and Rob Marciano who's in for Chad this morning.

Hey, Rob.

(WEATHER REPORT)

M. O'BRIEN: Coming up on the program, one lawmaker's idea to make schools safer. How about teachers carrying guns? We'll take a look at that controversial idea.

Plus, the FBI -- the pictures you see there -- the FBI joining the investigation into the recent E. Coli outbreak. We'll tell you why it could now be a criminal case.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: In Pennsylvania today, funerals for the four little girls who were killed in Monday's shooting at an Amish school. A service for a fifth girl will be held tomorrow. Five girls still hospitalized. Three of them are in critical condition. Two in serious condition.

In Virginia, a bomb threat shut down schools in Culpeper County. Police say they got the threat around midnight last night. No specific target was given. Officials believe, though, that the intended target could be children, so they're closing all the public and all the private schools while they conduct a thorough search.

In southern New Hampshire, a 16-year-old boy was arrested for bringing a gun to his high school yesterday. Police say the student showed up with a .38-caliber revolver. Showed it to a student in the parking lot, then put it in his locker. Nobody was hurt. The student is charged with reckless endangerment. And a student at the middle school outside of Denver suspended this morning after the discovery of an alleged death list. A student reported the boy after seeing him rip up the list and throw it in the trash. The principal at the school says the words death list were written at the top of the now suspended boy's birthday party invite list.

And a security scare for some Massachusetts students. Police arrested 18-year-old Troy Guppy (ph) after they found him wandering the halls of an elementary school. Officials say Guppy also sneaked into another school a few days ago, spoke to sixth graders about aliens.

In Maryland, six high school boys were shot by somebody with a bb gun while they were on lunch break. The boys suffered pretty minor wounds. The bb gun, though, was later found on school grounds. Police think that the shooter was, in fact, a fellow student.

And in the wake of all these recent school shootings, some people say arm the teachers. That would be a good idea. Well, Sean Ryan of our affiliate WKOW has more this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STATE REP. FRANK LASEE, (R) WISCONSIN: These things happen. Unfortunately, for some reason, some people do things like this.

SEAN RYAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): State Representative Frank Lasee says the recent school shootings are reason enough for school administrators to have guns.

LASEE: If we have teachers and other school people who are willing, able and well trained, I think it would increase safety.

RYAN: He says principals, teachers, even janitors should have the option of carrying a gun. But others are not convinced.

STATE REP. SPENCER BLACK, (D) WISCONSIN: Every so often a truly bad idea comes along from legislators and this is one of them.

RYAN: Democratic Representative Spencer Black, a former school teacher himself, is vehemently against the proposed legislation.

BLACK: In a situation like that, a kid who's bent on violence, if he think the principal is armed, is going to shoot first and ask questions later.

RYAN: As for here in the Madison school district, the idea just wouldn't fly.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everything that is done by the school has to have the support of our community. I don't believe that our community would support the district turning the schools into garrisons, or military bases.

BLACK: As terrible as the school shootings are, this is not the answer. This would be likely to increase violence in the schools, not decrease it.

LASEE: It isn't the silver bullet to solve all our problems, but I believe it is part of the mix of what we should be allowing our schools to do in order to protect our children.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

S. O'BRIEN: That was Sean Ryan of our Wisconsin affiliate, WKOW, reporting for us this morning.

Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: The investigation into that spinach-borne E. Coli outbreak is now criminal. FBI agents raided two California produce companies to see if food safety laws were violated. CNN's Peter Viles with more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): Criminal investigators for the FBI and the Food and Drugs Administration on Wednesday executed search warrants at two California produce distributors. Natural Selection Foods and Growers Express. U.S. Attorney Kevin Ryan said, "we are investigating allegations that certain spinach growers and distributors may not have taken all necessary or appropriate steps to ensure that their spinach was safe."

Growers Express, which had not previously been named in the investigation, had no comment. Natural Selection Foods, meantime, said it was fully cooperating with investigators and that, "it appears that the focus of this latest stage of the investigation continues to be on the fields where the products are grown by third party growers."

Investigators have traced all the tainted spinach to Natural Selection Brands, but it remains a mystery exactly how the spinach became contaminated. State health officials are now investigating the possibility the bacteria came from cow manure on nearby farms. Natural Selection has repeatedly said that its own facilities are clean.

CHARLES SWEAT, NATURAL SELECTION FOODS: All test results of our facilities, the water used in our facilities, and the finished products that were sampled by the FDA and CDA tests were negative. They were all clean. As such, we are confident that the source of this E. Coli did not originate in our facilities.

VILES: In announcing the searches, the U.S. attorney in San Francisco said there is no indication anyone deliberately contaminated any spinach, and that the matters now under investigation do not pose an existing threat to public health. The E. Coli outbreak sickened nearly 200 people and killed one. The government says newly harvested, fresh spinach is now safe to eat.

Peter Viles for CNN, Los Angeles.

(END VIDEOTAPE) S. O'BRIEN: Got some news just in to CNN. Culpeper County, Virginia, closing all schools. We told you about that. Public and private schools being closed while law enforcement officials search those schools.

They got a phone call. Some kind of a threat phoned in. Let's talk now with Marla McKenna. She's a spokesman for the Culpeper Schools.

Ms. McKenna, thanks for talking with us. Sure appreciate it.

Tell me a little bit more about this threat that was called in, I'm told before midnight, is that right?

MARLA MCKENNA, SPOKESWOMAN FOR CULPEPER SCHOOLS: Yes. The threat was received shortly before midnight. And it was a bomb threat. But it was nonspecific.

S. O'BRIEN: They didn't mention -- what made you decide to close the schools? Did they talk about, in any way, schools?

MCKENNA: I can't discuss the content of the threat, but the content of the threat did lead us to believe that we should close our schools today.

S. O'BRIEN: The schools are now being searched, as I mentioned. Tell me a little bit about this search. How's it working?

MCKENNA: The Culpeper County Sheriff's Office and the Culpeper County Police Department have contacted the Virginia State Police and contacted the ATF and they will be conducting a systematic search of all of our buildings.

S. O'BRIEN: And how long do you think that's going to take?

MCKENNA: It's likely to take a good portion of the day.

S. O'BRIEN: It's no surprise to you, certainly, that schools across this nation are on edge as we've had now three high-profile school shootings that we've been talking about over the last week alone. Was there anything about this threat that made it different, that particularly scared you, or is this just sort of standard policy? You get any kind of threat, you close down the schools?

MCKENNA: Any threat to the safety of our students and our staff would cause us to take these sort of precautionary measures. You would just -- you simply can't be too cautious.

S. O'BRIEN: I can hear your phone ringing off the hook. What's been the reaction . . .

MCKENNA: Yes, it is.

S. O'BRIEN: I know, and it's no surprise. I've got to imagine that you're being called by officials and also nervous parents. What's been the reaction as people started getting this news about closing down the schools in the wake of this threat?

MCKENNA: I really haven't had a lot of reaction from the community at this time. We've had a lot of media interest, obviously. I think that our parents understand that the choices that we make are in the best interests of our students and that their safety is our top priority. I believe that our community is being very understanding.

S. O'BRIEN: Well, that's good to hear. Marla McKenna is a spokeswoman for the Culpeper School District. Thanks for talking with us. We know you're crazy, busy, so we certainly appreciate it.

Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Coming up on the program, we're "Minding Your Business." The first criminal charges are filed in Hewlett-Packard's corporate spy scandal. Andy will tell us who's facing what charges next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

M. O'BRIEN: The latest on the Hewlett-Packard spying cases, criminal charges now. Andy Serwer with that chapter.

Hello, Andy.

ANDY SERWER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Miles.

California Attorney General Bill Lockyer has filed criminal charges against Hewlett-Packard's former chairman, Patty Dunn, as well as the company's former chief ethics officer and three private detectives that HP hired who were wrapped up in the case. Each is looking at four felony counts. That means they could serve a total of 12 years in prison. Mark Hurd, CEO of HP, was not named in any of the complaints.

Speaking of the criminal complaint, looking through it a little bit, some interesting numbers. Detectives found that HP and its detectives investigated 24 individuals. They had records of 1,750 phone calls made on 157 cell phones and 413 landlines. Wow!

M. O'BRIEN: Wow! Yes.

SERWER: They were busy little beavers, weren't they?

M. O'BRIEN: Expensive. Boy, how much did this whole thing cost them? Do we know?

SERWER: Remember, it was some $300,000. And then the damage to the reputation was priceless.

Now, also in other HP news to tell you about this morning, Carly Fiorina's book, she was the former CEO, her book comes out next Tuesday.

S. O'BRIEN: This is under the revenge is a dish best served cold chapter, I believe? SERWER: That's right. Absolutely, Soledad. And the timing is impeccable. And the book is embargo, top-secret. You can get a copy if you sign a non-disclosure agreement. Except, of course, if you're John Markoff of "The New York Times" who walked into a bookstore and purchased one yesterday. The book called "Tough Choices." It's just -- there's so many great things in this story. In it, some things revealed. Apparently Fiorina had her own investigation of journalists. She resented being fired. Said the board was unprofessional and suspected Keyworth and Perkins. We'll get more on the book over the next couple days.

M. O'BRIEN: Is she at all implicated in this current event at all?

SERWER: No. No. Not at this point. Let's just leave it at that.

S. O'BRIEN: She said the board's a bunch of amateurs, I believe is what she said.

SERWER: Yes, a bunch of amateurs, that's right.

S. O'BRIEN: Amateur hour on the board.

SERWER: Those people were amateur.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. What you got next.

SERWER: Coming up next, Miles, a story of why you shouldn't be absolutely, completely candid at work. One guy at Morgan Stanley will tell you about that. And it's not pretty.

M. O'BRIEN: Like we need to know that. All right, thank you, Andy.

There's much more ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

JONATHAN FREED, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Jonathan Freed in Columbus, Ohio, with the story of how the Foley scandal is having an impact on a House race 1,000 miles away. I'll have that story coming up.

BARBARA STARR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Barbara Starr at the Pentagon. NATO takes over the military operation in Afghanistan, but is the military option the best option to win the war over there. I'll tell you when this AMERICAN MORNING continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. I'm Soledad O'Brien.

M. O'BRIEN: And I'm Miles O'Brien.

The latest on that congressional page scandal for you now. A new allegation from a former chief of staff for the disgraced former Congressman Mark Foley. Kirk Fordham said he told Speaker Dennis Hastert's top aide that he was concerned about Foley's behavior as long as two years ago. Fordham resigned yesterday as chief of staff for another Republican leader Tom Reynolds. Now Speaker Hastert's office has a one-line response to all this -- "What Kirk Fordham said did not happen." End of statement there. The House Ethics Committee weighs into this mess this morning. They must decide how any ethics investigation will go forward. That meeting scheduled to get under way at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. We'll be watching that.

And meanwhile, an apparent ripple from the scandal, Speaker Hastert now uninvited to next week's campaign fund-raiser for Kentucky Republican Ron Lewis. I guess you could call it the Foley effect. The scandal hijacking campaign agendas across the board for both Republicans and Democrats.

CNN's Jonathan Freed live in Columbus, Ohio this morning with world of how it is impacting one race.

Jonathan, good morning.

JONATHAN FREED, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Miles.

That's exactly right. Here in Columbus, in the Ohio 15th, they are grappling, both sides, Democrat and GOP, with what's being called the Foley factor.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hello. How are you?

FREED (voice-over): It's 10:00 a.m. and Mary Jo Kilroy is working the crowd at a breakfast gathering in Columbus, Ohio. Kilroy is a first-time Democratic candidate for Congress, trying to unseat Deborah Pryce, a member of the house Republican leadership, in a tight race here in Ohio's 15th congressional district.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm going to go to Washington and fight for that.

FREED: There's a political elephant in the room, the Mark Foley scandal rocking the GOP, about suggestive electronic messages the former representative allegedly sent to underage House pages. Democrats across the country are hoping the scandal will energize their campaign to take back Congress.

And in this Columbus living room it's definitely on voters' minds.

MARY JO KILROY (D), OHIO CONG. CANDIDATE: What went on in Washington with this -- with Congressman Foley?

FREED (on camera): Do you think that the Foley factor is the extra piece of momentum that you need?

KILROY: I do. It's sort of like it's the final straw. It's going to topple the whole thing and bring change to Washington.

FREED (voice-over): Midday, downtown Columbus. Congressman Deborah Pryce picks up the backing of a veterans group.

But when it's time for reporter's questions...

QUESTION: When did you first learn of these e-mails between himself and the page?

REP. DEBRORAH PRYCE (R), OHIO: I learned of them on the Friday afternoon.

FREED: Any Republican in a close race is going to be concerned about potential Foley fallout.

PRYCE: This is a despicable, horrible act by a sick member of Congress.

FREED: But as the Republican conference chairwoman, part of the inner circle on Capitol Hill, Pryce must also deal with allegations the GOP leadership engaged in a Foley coverup, something she denies.

PRYCE: Are you angry that you have to deal with this now so close to Election Day?

PRYCE: I'm so angry with him. I'm so angry with the fact that this is a distraction from the campaign, that the Americans want to hear about our issues, they want to hear about the war on terrorism; they want to hear about the economy.

FREED: Seasoned Ohio political watchers like Joe Hallett believe the Foley scandal will stick through Election Day.

JOE HALLETT, POL. WRITER: It's, you know, a form of water torture. After a while, it just begins to peck away. And I think it does dent, even normally solid and safe Republicans like Deborah Pryce.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FREED: Now, Miles, analysts here in this district are saying that this Foley factor has the potential to not just change the minds of some undecided voters, but potentially even move some moderate Republicans away from their traditional Republican vote -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: And I suppose some real conservatives might stay home as well. I guess we've been talking about what the Foley effect would be nationwide. This is it in a microcosm, a race that was perhaps not so close, now seems a little closer.

FREED: That's right. This -- Congresswoman Pryce was elected in 1992, and people here are saying that she's never had to mount a very serious challenge since then. She's just been a very potent political force here in this district. But they're saying over the last couple of years, among other things, there have been some demographic shifts in this district here which have changed the political dynamic somewhat, Miles. But that this is just really pushing it forward. And just a few weeks away from Election Day, they have reason to be concerned. That's what they're telling us.

M. O'BRIEN: Jonathan Freed in Columbus, thank you -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Let's look at the big picture now with Ron Brownstein. He's CNN political analyst, also columnist with "The L.A. Times." He's in Washington D.C.

Ron, good morning.

As you heard Jonathan's terrific piece there, boy, everybody wants to talk about the things that the Republicans, even if they're miles and miles away from the scandal, technically they want to talk about it.

But first, let's talk about the sort of rock and a hard place. Hastert -- is it worse off for Republicans if he resigns, better for Republicans if he resigns?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POL. ANALYST: Well that is the debate. There are two separate questions. One is whether Denny Hastert is going to be speaker in January, if the Republicans retain control of the House. The odds of that after the revelations yesterday clearly would be diminishing.

The second question would the one that you posed -- it is better for the Republicans if they are going to make a move, to do it before the election, or not to move before the election? I think the party is very divided on that.

But by and large, as of yesterday, before these new revelations, the conclusion was that it will be worse to remove him before the election, and better, some argued, that the case for removing him is we're taking it seriously, you're opposing accountability. The case against it would be that you're acknowledging that something was done wrong at the very highest levels of your government.

S. O'BRIEN: As you point out, that was before the latest allegations. Suddenly there's a new name, Kirk Fordham, the chief of staff for Congressman Tom Reynolds. He used to be Mark Foley's chief of staff, but he says, I notified Hastert's staff not six months ago, but years ago, years ago about inappropriate behavior. How much of a bombshell do you think this really is?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, it's huge, because if corroborated, because it does raise the question -- it obviously puts the e-mails in a very different light, if they had been -- when Hastert's office is notified about the e-mails, they would have this previous information that certainly raises the bar of suspicion about why they didn't act.

Look, when you have this kind of direct contradictory argument going on between senior members of the House staff, not to mention senior members of the leadership over the last few days, it really does underscore the need for someone to begin to bring these people under oath and to get sworn testimony about these questions, and that's where there will be a lot of eyes on the House Ethics Committee to see what they're going to be doing about this.

S. O'BRIEN: Now Hastert's office said that is not true. Hastert quoted in "The Chicago Tribune" says this, "When the base finds out who's feeding this monster, they're not going to be happy. People who want to see this thing blow up are ABC News and lots of Democratic operatives, people funded by George Soros."

Seems to me that there's a big risk in this kind of a defense.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think what he's trying to do there is rally the base. I mean, there are several different, distinct political threats for the Republicans here. One is the most immediate, the races that will be directly affected, whether it's Tom Reynolds in New York, the chairman of the Republican campaign committee in the House, or Foley's district itself in Florida.

The second risk is the base, as Miles suggested, the concern that some conservatives will be turned off by this and won't come out to vote. That's what Speaker Hastert, I think, is trying to get at there. But the third risk may be the largest, which is just the swing voters, who come into this story with a negative view on the Republican Congress over the last years. Don't forget, this is happening against a back drop of an approval rating for the Republican Congress that is the lowest for any Congress since 1994, and the party in power in 1994, the Democrats at that point, did not have a very good election. They lost 52 seats. So there are a series of different risks here. What the speaker's comments does address, tries to address one of them, but it clearly doesn't encompass the whole danger that they face.

S. O'BRIEN: Sure does not. Ron Brownstein for us this morning, nice to see you as always, Ron.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

S. O'BRIEN: You want to keep up with this story and any of the latest political news at CNN's new political ticker, CNN.com/ticker -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: A historic handover in Afghanistan. NATO is now in full command of all anti-Taliban fighting in Afghanistan, including 12,000 U.S. troops. Will a change of flags make a real different reps in the face of a resurgent Taliban.

CNN's Barbara Starr at the Pentagon with more.

Barbara, good morning.

BARBARA STARR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Miles.

Well, that NATO handover ceremony just happening a couple of hours ago in Afghanistan. But, you know, Afghanistan somehow is beginning to sound an awful lot like Iraq. The question on the table, even with this NATO handover, will the military option be enough in Afghanistan.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STARR (voice-over): With violence growing, commanders warn a pure military victory in Afghanistan is not in the cards. This as NATO takes over day-to-day fighting during one of the toughest periods since the U.S. overthrew the Taliban five years ago. In the southern and eastern sectors, where fighting is heaviest, British, Canadian and 12,000 U.S. forces now will operate under a NATO flag. Attacks are on the rise in part because fighters are more freely crossing into Afghanistan.

LAWRENCE KORB, SR. FELLOW, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: There's no doubt about the fact that this agreement between Pakistan and basically the people on its border has allowed the Taliban and al Qaeda sanctuary.

STARR: And now NATO's top commander warns that 20,000 NATO forces and another 20,000 U.S. troops won't defeat the Taliban.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Afghanistan will not be resolved by military means.

STARR: Military commanders have long said reconstruction is vital. But questions are emerging about whether even that part of the strategy can change the dynamics on the ground.

SEN. BILL FRIST (R), MAJORITY LEADER: The Taliban is on the rise, and we do need to capture the hearts and the minds of the Afghan people. A lot of them are just farmers by day, but when the Taliban sticks arms in their hands, they say, well, I guess I'm Taliban.

STARR: Frist and others are calling for more effort to bring Taliban elements into the fold of the Afghan government, in hopes of stemming the fighting.

But commanders say there is one overwhelming problem -- the money from the opium crop.

GEN. JAMES JONES, NATO SUPREME ALLIED CMDR.: It allows the opposition to build the IEDs that kill and wound innocent civilians and wound and kill soldiers of the alliance.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

STARR: Miles, most military commanders now say they know they must come to some accommodation with the Taliban to bring them into the fold inside Afghanistan, but they also are convinced it's things like building roads and schools that will be the ultimate weapon to solving the problems in that country -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, not to mention stemming this poppy trade, which is in full bloom, right?

STARR: Absolutely. U.S. military commanders, General Jones especially, is very adamant on the question. He does not believe the Taliban movement is really going to go away until the poppy crop issue is solved, because today, Afghanistan simply runs on opium money, nothing else. That is the economy there, and that money is fueling much of the attacks and much of the insurgency activity in that country.

M. O'BRIEN: Barbara Starr at the Pentagon, thank you very much.

No end in sight for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but Congress has set aside $20 million for a victory celebration. The money is earmarked in this year's defense spending bill. It was also included in last year's budget. But it went unused for obvious reasons.

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: Ahead this morning, a controversial new ad campaign says HIV is a gay disease. It was supposed to raise awareness, but some say it's really hurting the fight against HIV and AIDS. That's story's up next on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: One of the country's most influential gay rights groups is out with a controversial new AIDS awareness campaign. Some AIDS activists, though, are concerned that the message might do more harm than good.

CNN's Chris Lawrence has our story this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The message is simple, but stunning. And it comes not from bigots, but the Los Angeles Gay and Lesbian Center.

(on camera): For 25 years, you've been saying HIV is not a gay disease. Now you're saying it is.

LORRI JEAN, L.A. GAY AND LESBIAN CENTER: HIV is impacting our community more than any other in Los Angeles, and we've got to do something about it.

LAWRENCE: Lorri Jean says gay men have become complacent about AIDS, and now make up 75 percent of HIV cases in Los Angeles County.

JEAN: It breaks my heart that these numbers are still as high as they are.

LAWRENCE: She aimed billboards above Santa Monica Boulevard at the general public, but sent these posters to bars and bookstores in L.A.'s gay community. Some say the only thing this campaign will end is 25 years of progress.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're going backwards.

LAWRENCE: Elizabeth Marte is HIV positive. She's been living with the virus for 13 years, since her boyfriend infected her.

(on camera): When you see a campaign like this, how does that make you feel?

ELIZABETH MARTE, OUTREACH ADVOCATE: It pisses the hell out of me. I'm a 44-year-old woman. I'm a single parent. I have three teenagers. I have a 25-year-old son. What are they going to go around saying, oh, mommy, I can't get infested because only gay men get infected? I don't want that message to go to my children.

LAWRENCE (voice-over): Nationwide, the number of women with HIV is rising. Just last month, the New York Department of Health asked outreach agencies not to solely target gay men. And the CDC is so concerned it's recommending every adult get tested.

MARTE: The HIV virus has a face, and there's your face and then there's my face.

LAWRENCE: But some say previous messages were too soft, and indirectly caused complacency among gay men.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The young kids, they think, oh well, if I get it, I get it. And, you know, there (INAUDIBLE). Well, you know, I've seen a lot of people that, you know, it's not quite that easy.

LAWRENCE: Nothing is, when it comes to both AIDS and AIDS awareness.

Chris Lawrence, CNN, Los Angeles.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

Up next, Andy, "Minding Your Business."

Andy, good morning.

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Good morning, Miles.

Which CEO wants to blog his company's news?

Plus, getting a little too candid at work could cost you your job. We'll tell you about one wall street executive who seems to have found out the hard way.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, it's happened to me in my career, too. I can tell you about later, too, if you'd like.

SERWER: Interested, yes.

M. O'BRIEN: We'll, do that in the Miles-cam. I'll explain to you how I got fired for being too candid many years ago, one of the many things I'll talk to you about. As a matter of fact, I'll answer most any question. Eigthy percent of it will be true. You'll have to figure out what the other 20 percent is. 10:30 Eastern Time is when we respond at CNN.com/pipeline location.

But now is the time to send us e-mails to milescam@CNN.com. And it's not just me. If I don't know the answer, I call, I use that telephone to call the great resources of CNN all throughout the world to get the right answer for you. So see us then, join us then, send us an e-mail now.

Back with more in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BUSINESS HEADLINES)

S. O'BRIEN: Also in just a moment, we're going to take a look at our top stories, including the fallout from the Foley scandal. The pressure's now increasing on the House Speaker Dennis Hastert to resign for his handling of the complaint. A closer look at that's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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