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American Morning

North Korea Says It's Conducted First Ever Nuclear Test

Aired October 09, 2006 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you.
Monday, October 9th.

I'm Miles O'Brien.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Soledad O'Brien.

Breaking news this morning. North Korea says it's conducted its first ever nuclear test. We've got reaction from around the world.

M. O'BRIEN: Also happening on this AMERICAN MORNING, the Foley scandal -- new indications some in Congress knew he was e-mailing teenage pages six years ago.

S. O'BRIEN: And a popular brand of lettuce is being recalled in seven states for possible E. coli contamination.

M. O'BRIEN: Let's get a check on the weather now.

Chad Myers watching colder temperatures all across the nation -- hello, Chad.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning.

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: We begin this morning with a serious international situation that's been developing overnight. North Korea says it's tested a nuclear weapon for the first time.

We've got complete coverage for you this morning.

Kathleen Koch is live for us at the White House.

Barbara Starr is live at the Pentagon.

Kathleen, let's begin with you -- good morning.

KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

The United States got word of the test, that it was to occur, roughly about a half an hour before it happened. It was just after 9:00 p.m. Eastern that North Korea notified China that it was about to test. Then China let the U.S. Embassy in Beijing know that the test was about to go forward. Then it was at 9:35 p.m. Eastern that the U.S. Geological Survey noted some sort of seismic event in North Korea. We don't yet know the precise location.

At 9:45, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing then let Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice know about the alleged nuclear test. She then notified National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, who then, shortly before 10:00 p.m. let President Bush himself know about the North Korean action.

At 1:30 a.m. this morning, Press Secretary Tony Snow held a conference call with reporters and released a very tough statement saying: "A North Korean nuclear test would constitute a provocative act in defiance of the will of the international community and of our call to refrain from actions that would aggravate tensions in Northeast Asia. We expect the Security Council to take immediate actions to respond to this unprovoked act."

Not, that, of course, is the United Nations Security Council. It's due to meet at 9:30 this morning.

Senior U.S. officials say they are reaching out to allies around the world. We heard on CNN International this morning from Japan's -- a spokesman for Japan's foreign minister, who said that President Bush spoke with the Japanese prime minister this morning about this whole incident. We are right now trying to confirm that with the White House. Haven't yet been able to.

But certainly a lot of consternation about this. The U.S. planning to push for very tough sanctions when the U.N. Security Council meets this morning. U.S. officials say they believe they have strong support for those sanctions -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Kathleen Koch at the White House for us.

Kathleen, thank you.

KOCH: You bet.

S. O'BRIEN: U.S. military officials are gathering intelligence on the device that was tested.

CNN's Barbara Starr live at the Pentagon for us this morning -- good morning, Barbara.

BARBARA STARR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Soledad, once again the question -- what did the intelligence community know, when did they know it?

This test may have been a little bit of a surprise in terms of the timing. There had been a mixed view in the intelligence community about whether the North Koreans were, in fact, ready as soon as this weekend to conduct a test. That mixed view -- now, you know, the results are in. They went ahead and did it.

The U.S. intelligence community, though, however, this morning trying to assess exactly what has taken place. There are readings at seismic stations around the world about this event, but determining exactly how large the nuclear event was is going to be a bit of an issue for the intelligence community over the next several days.

Let's explain why. There are readings out there -- there are seismic readings, there are readings about the magnitude and the yield of this explosion, but unless and until the intelligence community can really assess the geology there, they can't come up with a perfect reading. How hard was the rock? How tough, how deep was the ground in which this took place?

Once they put all of that together, they will be able to come up with a much better picture of exactly what transpired and, of course, very important to know exactly how much fissile material the North Koreans used in this test, because that will help determine how much fissile material they have left -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Any indication that the North has a workable delivery mechanism, which is really, obviously, a huge part of developing a nuclear weapon?

STARR: Right. That's really the other question the intelligence community looks at. So, they have conducted a nuclear test. What does that mean? Can they put a nuclear device on the front end of a missile or on a bomb and deliver a nuclear weapon somewhere in the world?

By all accounts, that is going to be a very tough challenge for the North Koreans. That involves some very significant high technology expertise in miniaturizing the nuclear device in order to put it on a missile.

Could they do it?

Maybe. It may take them a while. They've proven they're very dogged in their determination. But the near term concern, of course, Soledad, is much more proliferation. Who will come knocking on North Korea's door with a suitcase full of cash to try and buy this nuclear technology? Will it be Iran? Will it be al Qaeda? Will it be some other bad actor in the world who wants to gain nuclear expertise?

Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Barbara Starr at the Pentagon for us.

Thanks, Barbara -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Our correspondents are spread out all across the resignation with reaction.

Sohn Jie-Ae live in Seoul, South Korea.

Jaime Florcruz in Beijing.

And Atika Shubert in Tokyo.

We begin in Seoul, where a major summit was going on when the test was conducted -- Sohn, good morning to you.

SOHN JIE-AE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Miles.

A major summit between South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun-and the visiting Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, was scheduled for the very day that North Korea announced that it was -- that it had conducted nuclear tests.

Earlier in the day, on the news that North Korea announced its nuclear test, the South Korean government had some harsh words. It said it was a provocative act that could not be tolerated. The South Korean government also said they would support the discussion of this issue at the U.N. Security Council. And the South Korean stock market also plummeted on the news.

But for a more general view, we went out on the street to talk to South Koreans, to hear what they thought. And when we went out there, we heard many thoughts of disappointment and concern.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (THROUGH TRANSLATOR): We've been supporting North Korea ever since the launch of the Sunshine Policy. But we haven't heard them saying thank you and I think the global community has to stand strong as North Korea keeps threatening the world peace.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (THROUGH TRANSLATOR): I can't say my friends at school are in panic, but they definitely seem nervous from this incident.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SOHN: And in a press conference after the summit with the Japanese prime minister, the South Korean president urged the people to remain calm and to go about their everyday business.

And now for more reaction from another North Korean neighbor, we go to Jaime Florcruz in Beijing -- Jaime.

JAMIE FLORCRUZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Here in Beijing, the Chinese typically are very conciliatory toward the North Koreans. But not this time. The Chinese, after hearing the North Korea's nuclear test, very quickly they're angry in responding to this news, the Chinese Foreign Ministry saying that they are very -- they described this test as brazen, calling it unacceptable because it defies the opposition in the international community, saying the Chinese government is resolutely opposed to this.

The Chinese, after all, is North Korea's main ally and main supplier of oil and food. And the Chinese have, in fact, hosted several rounds of the six party talks aimed at brokering a resolution of the nuclear crisis.

But now that North Korea has proceeded to conduct its first nuclear test, the Chinese are leaning heavily on the North Koreans. The Chinese -- if the North -- if the U.N. Security Council decides to put a vote for a strong condemnatory statement or even a limited sanction, analysts say the Chinese will probably go along with that.

Still, in the long run, the Chinese are hoping that diplomacy and dialogue instead of military confrontation will save the day.

And now for more, to our Tokyo bureau chief, Atika Shubert.

ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Japan, out of all the countries in the region, perhaps, fears that it is -- will be the most likely target of a North Korean attack. That may be one reason why Japan has traditionally taken the harshest measures against North Korea.

Again, Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, today visiting Seoul, called for stern measures against North Korea, though he did not specify what actions would be taken. He did say that if the test is confirmed, it would be a grave threat not only to regional security, but to global security, in that it would be something that Japan would not accept, something that the international community should not acceptable.

And for that reason, Japan is lobbying members of the U.N. Security Council, hoping for a quick resolution condemning North Korea and possibly demanding economic sanctions.

But the question is will that have any affect on North Korea's isolated economy, especially now that it has already played its nuclear trump card?

M. O'BRIEN: Atika Shubert, thank you very much.

Meanwhile, a U.N. confrontation is looming with Iran over its nuclear program. Iran says it will keep making nuclear fuel despite the threat of United Nations sanctions. European nations set to resume negotiations with Iran. Until those talks are completed, the U.N. Security Council will hold off on calling for sanctions.

In Afghanistan, a stark warning from the NATO officer in charge. British General David Richards says if conditions don't improve, Afghans could switch allegiances back to the Taliban. He says more troops are needed to provide basic services and restore peace after Taliban fighters have increased their attacks.

In Iraq, a meal to break the Ramadan fast proves deadly. At least 700 Iraqi police are sick, seven are dead, after eating a meal on their base in southern Iraq. Unclear if it was a deliberate poisoning.

North Korea's apparent underground nuclear test probably will not delay the vote for U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan's successor. The Security Council expected to nominate South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon today, before moving on to the topic of North Korea, coincidentally. The nomination must be ratified by the 192-member general assembly. Kofi Annan's second five-year term expires at the end of the year -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Ahead this morning, much more on the breaking news out of North Korea. If they have carried out a nuclear test, as they claim, how should the world respond?

We're going to check in with a former weapons inspector about what happens next.

Then, there's a new produce recall to tell you about. This time it's lettuce, not spinach. We'll tell you what you need to know ahead.

First, though, Andy Serwer is Minding Your Business -- good morning, again.

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Good morning, Soledad.

Are CEOs born or made?

That's an open question that will be debated endlessly, no doubt. One thing many of them have in common, though, it turns out that a lot of them were spanked as children. That's right. And we'll talk about that more coming up on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: It's 13 minutes past the hour. If you're getting ready to hang out the door, hang on.

let's get a quick check of the travelers' forecast for you.

Chad Myers at the CNN Weather Center -- good morning, Chad.

MYERS: Good morning, Soledad.

(WEATHER REPORT)

M. O'BRIEN: U.S. intelligence has its hands full this morning, as they try to figure out exactly how big that nuclear test -- or, was it, in fact, a nuclear test -- that occurred a little after 9:00 p.m. Eastern time last night in North Korea.

David Albright is a former U.N. weapons inspector.

He is now head of the Institute for Science & International Security.

He joins us from Washington to give us a sense of how they're going to be doing their job.

David, good to have you back with us on the program.

First of all, based on what we know so far, seismic information, for example, can we say categorically this was a nuclear bomb that was exploded underground?

DAVID ALBRIGHT, FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTOR: That's my understanding, that the seismic waves would appear to have a characteristic that shows it's a nuclear explosion and not an earthquake. M. O'BRIEN: So, in other words, you can't mask it by just using a lot of conventional explosives and make it look like a nuclear explosion?

ALBRIGHT: Not easily. I mean if it was a very low yield nuclear explosive, you could possibly do that. But even that's a little tricky to fully decouple the explosions from each other.

M. O'BRIEN: OK...

ALBRIGHT: I'm sorry, to mask, to confuse them completely.

M. O'BRIEN: OK. So at this point, then, given the size of the seismic event, how big a bomb was it, do you think?

ALBRIGHT: Well, the reports are mixed. I mean it's -- you need to know the geology which the bomb was detonated in and there's a shortage of information. Now, you have reports out of South Korea that it was, you know, less than a kiloton, half a kiloton, not a very successful nuclear detonation.

There's a report by the defense minister of Russia, Ivanov, saying it was in the range of five to 15 kilotons. They have seismic stations pretty close to that test site. They have a lot of experience predicting the size of an explosion based on seismic data.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, give me...

ALBRIGHT: So I...

M. O'BRIEN: Give us a sense, though, for people who aren't familiar with the kilotons, just to give a by comparison, how big was the Hiroshima bomb, for example?

ALBRIGHT: Well, it was about -- almost 15 kilotons.

M. O'BRIEN: OK.

ALBRIGHT: So, it's -- if North Korea had gotten in a range of five to 15 kilotons, that's quite a respectable fission weapon or device, I should say. And this is not a weapon that was detonated underground. It was a device. It doesn't look like a weapon. It's still a nuclear explosion and it's the -- and to go from the explosion detonated underground to a weaponize device is fairly straightforward.

M. O'BRIEN: It's straightforward, but it's not simple to make it small enough to put on top of a warhead, is it?

ALBRIGHT: Well, it's not simple, but it's not that hard. I think -- I would not trust reports that say that North Korea has not weaponize. I mean we don't know a lot, but North Korea has been at this a long time. We can trace parts of their bomb program back into the 1980s, parts involving the testing of high explosives, which are a key component of a nuclear explosion, believe it or not.

The other thing is, is that the Khan network, this A.Q. Khan, the Pakistani, may have provided nuclear weapons design information to North Korea. He provided it to Libya.

And so we don't know what North Korea knows. And so I think the one conclusion I have is that I don't think North Korea conducted this test because it didn't know how to build nuclear explosives. I think it conducted the test as a push back against what it sees as U.S. pressure to back it into a corner with financial sanctions combined with the army in North Korea wanting to become stronger.

And so I think you have a very dangerous situation being set up that needs to be managed very carefully.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, all right, so how would you manage it?

ALBRIGHT: Well, one is, is that I think it's inevitable there's going to be sanctions in the Security Council. But I think they should be measured. And there also should be a clear signal sent that if North Korea wants to come back to negotiations, they will be welcome, and that the -- and, again, the purposes of those negotiations is agreed upon by all the parties, is to verify nuclear -- denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

So North Korea has not walked away from that commitment so far. So I think this can be walked back.

But the danger now is, is that if each side starts to escalate -- the White House has already issued a statement calling this action by North Korea unprovoked and calling for very harsh reactions from the international community. I think that that's -- they're going too far and I think that we should be very careful how we -- how this develops, because, in the end, I don't think North Korea is trying to provoke a military confrontation. I think it's...

M. O'BRIEN: Should...

ALBRIGHT: Sorry.

M. O'BRIEN: Would you suggest -- just quickly -- would you suggest one-on-one talks between the U.S. and North Korea?

ALBRIGHT: I think that's impossible right now. But I don't think it's impossible down the -- down the road a bit. And I think that what we shouldn't do is just give up and go into some kind of confrontational mode, because it's just too dangerous and some of these predictions about proliferation could actually start to come true, that if North Korea is just isolated, I doubt if it's going to roll over and suddenly change.

And so I think we do have to come back to negotiations with North Korea. And I think, as it's been proven in the past, the United States has to sit down with North Korea to try to make a deal.

M. O'BRIEN: David Albright, thanks for your time.

ALBRIGHT: Thank you.

M. O'BRIEN: Soledad. S. O'BRIEN: Ahead this morning, will spanking your kids help them grow up to be a CEO?

Andy Serwer explains as he minds your business just ahead.

And if you've got lettuce in your refrigerator, you want to listen to this. A new recall to tell you about. That's just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: If you've got lettuce in your refrigerator, you want to check the brand name. Foxy brand lettuce is being recalled voluntarily because of possible E. coli contamination. The lettuce was grown in the same area as that tainted spinach that sickened almost 200 people and killed three people. So if you live in one of these seven West Coast states -- you can see them right there -- Washington, Montana, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, California and Arizona -- you want to take that lettuce right back to the store for a refund or you want to throw it out.

So far, the good news is there have been no illnesses to report.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, to spank or not to spank?

These are the questions many parents face along the way. And the question is what about CEOs? Were they -- were they beaten like a pulp when they were children? Who knows?

Actually, Andy Serwer knows. Yes.

SERWER: Well, there's a fun--- this is a fun-story -- it's in "USA Today" this morning -- about CEOs and whether or not they were spanked when they were children, and whether or not that had anything to do with the fact that they turned out to be CEOs.

And actually it turns out that many of them were spanked. But what you have to remember here, I think this is very much of a generational thing. These people are 50 and 60 years old and more children at that time were spanked than they are today.

I think that goes without saying.

M. O'BRIEN: I think they do that, yes (ph).

SERWER: Now, a couple of them, a couple of CEOs of note are in this story. Let's run-through them.

Rick Waggoner, CEO of G.M. occasionally a whack in the fanny.

I like this. John Chambers from Cisco-was spanked very, very rarely.

And then Jack Welch, hit with a shoe. Hit with a shoe.

M. O'BRIEN: Ooh. Ooh. SERWER: I think that was once. His mom was particularly perturbed.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes.

SERWER: A couple of the CEOs to talk about.

Time Warner's CEO, our boss, Richard Parsons, he says he was hit with a switch from a tree when he misbehaved at school.

Ameritrade's CEO Joe Moglia says he was hit once a month in good times and once a week when times were bad at his house. Joe Moglia, the CEO of Ameritrade, the online brokerage.

M. O'BRIEN: Wow!

SERWER: And then there's -- this is kind of sad, really. We shouldn't laugh about this.

M. O'BRIEN: Pray for good times.

S. O'BRIEN: Wow!

SERWER: The CEO of United Way, Brian Gallagher, says -- reports -- and it's amazing people want to tell these stories -- he says his father was a mean drunk who verbally amused him -- abused him. He didn't amuse him, he abused him. And it was a very scary household.

So it kind of ruined the whole family (ph).

S. O'BRIEN: But you know what?

By coming forward, look, he's now the CEO of a big company.

SERWER: Yes. And you get it off your chest.

S. O'BRIEN: So...

SERWER: There's a catharsis there.

Another interesting story to tell you about this morning from my colleague, Kate Murphy, of "Fortune" magazine, a big women's CEO, women executive conference we're having. And Kate wrote a story about how these women executives were parenting and what they thought was important.

Yes to allowances, but, you know, making them actually trying to take some responsibility.

How about shopping?

These kids -- their kids -- tons of money. One idea one of them had is to load a credit card with $1,000 for a year. This is for a teenager. And that's it. You have to buy all your things for the whole year...

M. O'BRIEN: And budget yourself.

SERWER: And then another interesting thing, I think, here, was to have the kid, again a teenager, be in charge of budgeting a vacation or planning to buy a new car, obviously subject to the parents' approval. But putting them in charge of the money process a little bit.

Again, easy to do if you're upper middle class or upper, upper, upper middle class perhaps.

M. O'BRIEN: Right.

Do they spank?

They're nice about it.

S. O'BRIEN: Yes, no women weighed in on the spanking thing?

SERWER: There are some of the women did.

S. O'BRIEN: OK.

SERWER: This is the CEO thing and they did, and some of them were spanked. So you can imagine.

S. O'BRIEN: Interesting.

SERWER: Yes.

M. O'BRIEN: Thanks, Andy.

S. O'BRIEN: Ahead this morning, more on North Korea's apparent nuclear test.

How is the U.N. going to respond?

We'll get a live report in just a moment.

And you can look at a fight for Iraq. A retired colonel just back from that country is going to join us live and tell us whether anything is going to be done that will end the deadly violence there.

And we'll continue to look at the political fallout from the Mark Foley scandal.

Will Republicans hold onto control of Congress?

Political strategists from both parties join us live just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

M. O'BRIEN: Welcome back.

I'm Miles O'Brien.

S. O'BRIEN: And I'm Soledad O'Brien.

Here's a look at what we're following for you this morning.

In a major act of defiance, North Korea says it has conducted a nuclear test, the first ever.

In southern Iraq, at least seven police officers, Iraqi police officers, are dead, 700 others hospitalized after they ate bad, possibly poisoned food.

M. O'BRIEN: And the Foley scandal -- new indications some in Congress knew as long as six years ago that he was e-mailing teenage pages.

The bottom of the hour.

Let's get a check on the weather.

Chad says you might want to break out the sweaters -- good morning, Chad.

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: We're continuing to follow a story that's been developing all night and morning. North Korea testing a nuclear device.

So the question is now what's the world going to do about that?

Our United Nations correspondent is live -- Richard Roth is live for us ahead this morning.

First, though, let's check in with Zain Verjee.

ZAIN VERJEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: North Korea's goal is regime survival. It wants direct talks with the U.S. and the normalization of relations with Washington. It sees that as key to its survival. North Korea may also think that having a nuclear weapon will strengthen its bargaining power. It also needs economic aid. It's desperately poor. It needs more food and more fuel.

Experts also say North Korea is looking for security guarantees. It looks over at Iraq and what happened with Saddam Hussein, and it wants assurances that it will not be invaded. Pyongyang also wants an end to financial sanctions that have been imposed. Washington basically accusing North Korea of elicit activities, like drug running, money laundering. So it's frozen North Korean accounts, and that's really upset and is hurting Kim Jong Il and his elite. He uses money from the accounts to keep them happy.

So what are some of the options that the world has in dealing with North Korea? Experts say that there are no good military options. North Korea is also heavily sanctioned. So it's not really clear how much of a difference more sanctions will make. The key here, too, is China. How angry is China, and what will it do? Will it cut off the food and fuel that it gives to North Korea to survive? Will it twist North Korea's arm and makes sure it gets back to the negotiating table? Experts say that China would never impose sanctions so hard that North Korea would collapse, because it would ultimately create a problem for china.

Zain Verjee, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

S. O'BRIEN: Some very strong reaction as the world gets out some of their reaction. Let's get right to U.N. corresopndent Richard Roth.

Richard, we certainly have heard a lot of tough talk, calling this a criminal regime and a desperate act, et cetera, et cetera, yet what can actually be done?

RICHARD ROTH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Right. I mean, despite all the talk, when you get behind closed doors, Security Council's consultation room, this is where the positions really get put out there and things are defined. You're going to see some move definitely toward sanctions. What level, we don't know. As Zain was talking about, you might have financial, trade sanctions. There will be disagreements on whether there should be any type of military blockade, things like that. Maybe the U.S. will threaten to do things with a coalition of the willing. It depends on how much they want to ratchet it up.

Of course, the timing is interesting. The security council will meet in less than an hour, supposed to nominate Ban Key Moon (ph), the South Korean foreign minister, to be the next secretary general of the U.N. He's saying he wants to go to North Korea once he becomes secretary-general and try to start mediating this conflict, a U.N. role that the U.S. may or may not be happy with. Ambassador Bolton of the U.S. saying last Friday, he'll bring new eyes to new issues, but others not wanting to comment until the man formally gets the job.

There's no doubt, Soledad, the timing of North Korea's nuclear announcement and then its test one week later coincided with key actions of the Security Council regarding the South Korean foreign minister, who himself at one point was representing his county in nuclear talks with North Korea -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Yes not a big surprise there.

Richard Roth for us this morning. Thanks, Richard -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: In Iraq, a man in charge of a mess hall south of Baghdad is in police custody right now. Police are trying to figure out if he purposely made a meal that made hundreds of Iraqi police officers sick, killing at least seven.

CNN's Arwa Damon is live in Baghdad with more -- Arwa.

ARWA DAMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Miles. That's right. Now it happened south of the capital of Baghdad, about 75 miles south, in an area called Niwaniya (ph). Apparently right after these Iraqi police officers had their evening meal on Sunday -- now, that would be the meal with which they would be breaking their fast; we are in the holy month of Ramadan -- they fell ill. According to one Iraqi police officer who was down there, they just fell, one after the next. According to the hospital, seven of them were killed. Hundreds more are now ill. The Iraqi police and the Iraqi government are investigating this very bizarre incident.

Now the ministry of defense did issue a statement saying that they believe that only about 450 Iraqi police officers were ill. They are denying any deaths. However, this does contradict information that we are getting from the hospital.

It is possible that this was a deliberate poisoning. That is what they're investigating. They have sent samples of the food and water that these police officers ate and drank for further testing. If it is a deliberate poisoning attempt, that would be quite a new tactic used by the insurgency here, or used whomever it was that was trying to carry this out. Or it also just could have been a case of bad food. Regardless of that, the person in charge of the mess hall has been detained, along with several others -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Arwa, do we know if everyone who ate that food got sick?

DAMON: Well, we're not entirely sure. There are some 1,000 Iraqi police commandos who were actually down at the base. The highest number we've heard of those who are ill is about 700. What is bizarre, though, is they say within minutes of eating this food that they fell ill, and that is, you know, rather fast -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Arwa Damon in Baghdad, thank you -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Coming up this morning, how will the Mark Foley e- mail scandal affect the GOP's chances of controlling the Congress? We're going to check in with political strategist on both sides.

And it's early on in October, and it's already shaping up to be one of the deadliest months yet in Iraq. Can anything end the violence? We'll talk to a retired colonel who's just back from Iraq, straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

M. O'BRIEN: Another potential timeline change in the Mark Foley e-mail scandal. "The Washington Post" out this morning with a piece that indicates concerns over Foley were brought to Arizona Republican Jim Kolbe as many as six years ago, and Kolbe confronted Foley about them. Meanwhile, the House Ethics Committee is expected to hear testimony this week from Foley's former congressional chief of staff, Kirk Fordham. He claims he went to speaker Dennis Hastert's office with concerns about Foley as long as three years ago.

Now one congressional race which may now be in play because of the Foley e-mail scandal is Virginia's second district.

CNN's Mary Snow is in Norfolk, Virginia. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Just how conservative is this northern tip of the Bible Belt?

MIKE SCOZZAFAVA, NORFOLK REPUBLICAN: When I find a Democrat, a liberal within this area, it just blows me away.

SNOW: So it may come as quite a shock that incumbent Republican Congressman Thelma Drake is in a tough re-election battle against Democrat challenger Phil Kellam. And that was before the Mark Foley scandal. Last week, Kellam's campaign began re-airing these ads about protecting kids from sexual content on the Internet.

ANNOUNCER: As a father of two, Phil Kellam knows that protecting our children is more difficult than ever.

SNOW: Drake says she doesn't think the fallout over Foley will affect her.

REP. THELMA DRAKE (R), VIRGINIA: Certainly because Mark Foley did something wrong doesn't mean Thelma Drake had anything to do with that. I'm a mother; I'm a grandmother.

SNOW: Her Democratic challenger says Foley symbolizes what's wrong in Washington.

PHIL KELLAM (D), VIRGINIA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: And certainly people that I talk to, at work, at church, around the community, are concerned about this. They're concerned about this culture of corruption in Washington.

SNOW: But Kellam also might receive help from the most unlikely of places, dissatisfied Christian conservatives here, those like Pat Diffley, who's retired from the Marine Corps.

PAT DIFFLEY, U.S. MARINE CORPS (RET.): I think the current administration in the White House and some of the things that Congress has done has not necessarily forwarded the conservative values.

SNOW: While Diffley says he'll still vote Republican, there are others among this conservative community who aren't so sure.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Probably will end up voting Republican, as long as I don't see anything else that's come up.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

S. O'BRIEN: Politically speaking, the Foley scandal is kind of the gift that keeps on giving, if you're a Democrat. Republicans were in danger of losing control of the House before the scandal broke. And now with the midterm elections just a month away, the question is, can they control the damage?

Democratic strategist Dan Greenberg joins us. He's in New Haven this morning. Republican strategist Joe Watkins is with us as well in New York.

Nice to see you, guys. Thanks for talking with us.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Good to see you, Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Thank you.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Good to be here. Thank you.

S. O'BRIEN: Let's start with Stan, shall we? When you look at the big issues that affect this particular election, a month ago pollsters were telling us it's Iraq, it's terror, it's health care, it's the economy, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Is Foley -- if we were to do that exact poll now, would Foley run to the top of that list, do you think?

STAN GREENBERG, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: He would be very much part of the list, but it's not Foley itself; it's about the Republican Congress. It's kind of like the bookends on this Congress, which started with Terri Schiavo and now the Foley scandal. You have all this mud slinging, partisan polarization, a Congress that doesn't address issues that matter to people. And so what you've had at the end of the Congress is a very big drop in the esteem of Congress, you know, as it goes out to try to face the voters, so it's a very important part of that. Iraq is a very big part of the story. But this is a part of the narrative.

S. O'BRIEN: All right. So in other words, it just doesn't help. So then, Joe, every day we hear about this timeline change. I mean, there's always sort of a new wrinkle every day, maybe going back as far as six years. If you're a Republican congressional candidate, what's your strategy right now? What would you advise them to do?

JOE WATKINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I'd say stick to your knitting, because obviously what Mark Foley did was wrong, and he's disgraced himself and he's left Congress, and he's being investigated, and that is as it should be. But if you're a member of Congress and you're a Republican, you've working hard to fight against terror, to bring about a strong national defense, to bring jobs to your district, then stick to your knitting and tell the people what you've been doing for them.

And I think at the end of the day, when voters go to the polls to vote, they're going to vote for their individual members of Congress. No matter how angry they may be at Congress as a whole, they're going to vote their own best interests when it comes to the individual member of Congress. A lot of Republicans are going to be reelected.

S. O'BRIEN: Stan, do you think that makes sense? I mean, it sort of makes sense as an outsider looking in, that as mad as you might be about something the national scale, at the end of the day, the midterm congressional elections are about the guy you see handing out flyers in your neighborhood kind of thing.

GREENBERG: No. I mean, actually this is a very nationalized election. The president has helped nationalize the election, and this is very much part of it. But the keeping to your knitting, with respect, I think it will be a failed strategy for many members of Congress.

What the country does not see is a passion among Republicans, a rage and anger about this, you know, threat to underage children. How could this conservative Republican Congress be so indifferent and cover this up? And that's their problem. Right now Republicans are underperforming, five points below 2004 amongst evangelicals. They're turnout is down. The engagement of their base is down. Independents have moved away. And so they face a problem here, and I don't think they can face it with stay the course on this issue, as they're talking about stay the course in Iraq.

S. O'BRIEN: Joe, right now we're seeing congressional Republicans rallying around the Speaker Hastert. Is the theory sort of losing him now would be worse than for them than if he were to leave?

WATKINS: I think so. I think that Denny Hastert ought to stay and he ought to just address the concerns that people have. I think that when the smoke clears, you'll find that Denny Hastert hasn't done anything wrong. He was aware of some of the things, some of the uncomfortable feelings that some pages had about Congressman Foley, but he didn't do anything wrong. And I think you'll find that when the smoke clears - for him to leave now would send a very, very bad signal, so I think Denny Hastert needs to say.

GREENBERG: Rallying around is kind of an amazing conclusion. Right now we have the head of the Republican Congressional Committee with ads on the air attacking the speaker, saying that he spoke to the speaker months ago about this. These are the leaders of this party going into this election. When the country sees a divided party, they lose confidence in this party. Governed by being strong and united, this is a very difficult way to go to the voters.

S. O'BRIEN: Yes, but, Stan, isn't the point that, OK, there's calls for Denny Hastert's, so then let's, theoretically, if he were to leave, then the next person in line. I mean, then you just have more chaos on top. I mean, isn't there a point to try to stem off...

GREENBERG: That's absolutely right.

S. O'BRIEN: ... and keep the leadership together at this point.

(CROSSTALK)

GREENBERG: But this is all so tactical, and it's why people in the real world say, this is why we want a change in Washington.

WATKINS: I don't think so. I think what you end up being -- I think that what you end up having really, is you have a lot of Republicans who are outraged at the very, very inappropriate behavior of one former member of Congress, and they are continuing...

GREENBERG: What about the years of silence -- you have years and years of discussion amongst Republicans... WATKINS: This kind of activity isn't new. Remember now, Stan -- this isn't new. Remember in 1983 when Jerry Stugs (ph) was...

S. O'BRIEN: Joe, let me stop you there, because I've heard that argument a lot.

GREENBERG: Just imagine what the voters are listening to here, going back to 1983...

S. O'BRIEN: Yes, that's what I was going to ask you, Joe. You know, I've heard that argument. And one thinks, well, why are you bringing up '84? I mean, it's kind of -- you got to go back twenty- some odd years. That sounds...

WATKINS: Well, the point is...

(CROSSTALK)

S. O'BRIEN: Go ahead, Joe.

WATKINS: It's no -- what Mark Foley did is no better than what Jerry Stugs did. Jerry Stugs, a Democratic Congressman, had sex with a male page, was censored by the House of Representatives, actually served another 13 years after he was censored by the House of Representatives for that horrible act, but there was no outrage at that time. There was no outrage, no move to get, to investigate then- speaker of the House Tip O'Neill for his inactivity, to find out what he knew and when he knew it. So this is what makes some Republicans feel that this current move may be a little big disingenuous.

S. O'BRIEN: All right, Stan Greenberg and Joe, nobody talk. We're out of time, guys. But obviously it's a contentious subject, I can tell. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it, as always.

WATKINS: Thanks.

S. O'BRIEN: We've got some news just into CNN. Looks as if the president, President Bush, is going to be making a statement at 9:45 a.m. at the White House. He's going to be discussing North Korea's nuclear test.

CNN, of course, is going to carry that live when it happens.

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: Ahead this morning, October has only just begun. It's already shaping up to be another deadly month in Iraq. What's it going to take to end the violence there. We'll check in with a retired colonel who's just back from Iraq, just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: This just into CNN. We're expecting at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time President Bush will be making remarks from the White House about the situation in North Korea in the wake of what is believed to be a nuclear test. We'll obviously carry that for you live when it happens right here on CNN -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: In Iraq today, more of the familiar violence, a suicide car bombing, an assassination. But a new wrinkle, perhaps, what maybe a mass poisoning of Iraqi police officer. While the violence continues to escalate, there is real concern about what happens in the next month or so in Iraq. Retired Army Colonel and CBS radio analyst Jeffrey McCausland just returned from his third trip to Iraq since the U.S. invasion, his fourth trip overall. He joins us from Washington.

Colonel McCausland, good to have you back on the program.

JEFFREY MCCAUSLAND, (RET.) U.S. ARMY: Miles, great to be with you.

M. O'BRIEN: Your third trip, you met with high-ranking Iraqi leaders, including the prime minister. You walked away, I'm told, less optimistic.

MCCAUSLAND: Well, that's certainly the case, Miles. I mean, up until February, with the attack on the Golden Mosque, we were confronted with the security problem of insurgents, terrorists, al Qaeda and Iraq, and a big criminal problem. There was a lot of euphoria after those elections in January.

Now we've added that deadly mix, intersectarian violence, which is the centerpoint of everybody's attention in Iraq. And, obviously, if we can't dampen down the intersectarian violence, the possibility of civil war certainly looms large.

M. O'BRIEN: Another person who visited recently in Iraq is Republican Senator John Warner. Let's listen to what he had to say when he came back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN WARNER (R), VIRGINIA: I assure you in two or three months, if this thing hasn't come to fruition and if this level of violence is not under control and this government able to function, I think it's a responsibility of our government internally to determine is there a change of course that we should take?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

M. O'BRIEN: What do you make of that statement?

MCCAUSLAND: Well, I'd have to agree wholeheartedly with Senator Warner. I think we're really at a tipping point in Iraq. You know, we have a new government, the first real long-term sovereign government with Prime Minister Maliki. They've only been in power about 100 days. We've seen this dramatic upsurge in killing, particularly in Baghdad, and certainly we must get control of that situation, and the next few months will be certainly critical in that effort.

M. O'BRIEN: At this point, what, if anything, can the U.S. do about this? Is there a change of tactics? Is there an addition or subtraction of troops that can help?

MCCAUSLAND: We, really, we've to rely more and more, I think, on the Iraqis. Certainly the central effort is in Baghdad, and U.S. military forces are concentrating there, while actually exercising economy of force operations elsewhere. They're moving into neighborhoods, they're seizing a neighborhood, they're clearing it of excessive weapons, trying to do some immediate service assistance, water improvement, electricity, medical and the like, and then hopefully, you know, on the Iraqi security forces.

But obviously to buttress the Iraqi government, we must see the Iraqi security forces, army, as well as police, taking more and more of the responsibility as this going on.

M. O'BRIEN: And of course that's problematic. Because as we saw last week, a portion of the Iraqi security forces, 700 or 800 of them, were disbanded because it is believed they were part of death squads essentially. So how much confidence do you have in these Iraqi security forces?

MCCAUSLAND: Well, the Iraqi army, I think, is in pretty good shape. And I spent a lot of time talking with General Dempsey, who's in charge there. He's done a great job. I went out on patrol and talked to a lot of Iraqis, and you get a lot of mixed reviews. Less confidence, of course, in the Iraqi police, which as you rightfully point out, have been accused of being infiltrated by some of the militias. But one could argue we have a new ministry of interior, and actually the identification of those in that brigade is actually good news, as we're starting over time to root out those who are affiliated with the militias, though the timing for this obviously makes it very, very difficult.

M. O'BRIEN: And quickly, how much confidence do you have in Mr. Maliki and his government?

MCCAUSLAND: Well, it remains to be seen. Again, they're only a hundred days into office, and they have an enormous number of problems. Is this going to be a federal state, or a loose confederation of regions. How do we handle de-Baathification? How we do share oil? When will this government have the strength to confront these militias and insist they turn in their weapons? And many of those militia leaders actually provide political support to the Maliki government.

M. O'BRIEN: Retired Army Colonel Jeffrey McCausland, thanks as always for being with us -- Soledad.

MCCAUSLAND: Thanks, Miles.

S. O'BRIEN: In just a moment, a look at the top stories, including the breaking news out of North Korea. The nation says it carried out a nuclear test. What happens now? The president's going to speak live in next hour. We'll have reaction as well from around the world. Stay with us.

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