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American Morning
North Korea Nuclear Test; War's Deadly Toll; Foley Fallout; El Nino Effect
Aired October 11, 2006 - 06:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you. It is Wednesday, October 11. I'm Miles O'Brien.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Soledad O'Brien.
Let's go right to the newswall for a look at the stories we're tracking for you this morning.
An Asian earthquake frays nerves and touches off fears of another North Korean nuclear test. The North is now saying it will consider any sanctions by the United States a declaration of war.
M. O'BRIEN: Also on the radar this morning, the other nuclear worry, Iran. The U.S. and five of its allies today considering sanctions aimed at punishing Tehran for thumbing its nose at the world and making nuclear fuel.
S. O'BRIEN: A new study just out moments ago estimates that more than 650,000 Iraqis have died since the U.S. invasion.
M. O'BRIEN: A polar punch could cause some severe weather in the Tennessee River Valley today. Polar punch, that sounds painful.
Chad Myers at the CNN Center...
S. O'BRIEN: That's got to hurt.
M. O'BRIEN: ... with that. One to the solar plexus right there, yes.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots.
(WEATHER REPORT)
M. O'BRIEN: That is good news for me. Thank you very much, -- Chad.
MYERS: I know.
M. O'BRIEN: I hate ragweed season, it makes me miserable.
All right, thanks.
MYERS: It's true.
M. O'BRIEN: We'll see you in just a little bit. We begin this morning in Northeast Asia where the earth shook once again today, but apparently this time it was not an earthquake, not a tremor from a huge underground explosion -- excuse me, it was an earthquake, not a tremor from an explosion in North Korea.
Our correspondents are standing by with the latest. Aneesh Raman live in Tokyo, Hugh Riminton in Beijing.
Aneesh, let's begin with you.
ANEESH RAMAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Miles, good morning.
Call it a sign of Japan's new normal, the jittery atmosphere that has taken hold here after North Korea's nuclear test. This morning, Japanese media reported earthquake activity they said was caused by a second nuclear test in North Korea.
South Korean news agencies almost immediately contradicted that, said South Korea had noticed no seismic activity in the North. Turns out they were right, that it was not a manmade earthquake, a natural one -- sorry -- that happened, not in North Korea, but off the eastern coast of Japan. It shows, though, the very real danger that Japan thinks North Korea now poses.
Towards that end, the Japanese Cabinet, we understand, late tonight has approved a new round of sanctions, unilateral sanctions they are imposing on North Korea, aside from whatever the U.N. decides. Those could include a ban on all imports and experts between North Korea and Japan -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Aneesh, the North Koreans are still vowing a second test, obviously people in that part of the world watching that very closely.
RAMAN: They are. And we heard today from Japan's foreign minister speaking to the country's Parliament, saying that he had unconfirmed information that a second nuclear test in North Korea was imminent, that it could happen as early as today.
Meantime, in an interview with a Japanese news service, the number two man in North Korea said that a second nuclear test would be decided based on how the U.S. responds and if there is increased pressure by the U.S. on the regime in Pyongyang. So people here are watching this very closely minute by minute -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Aneesh Raman in Tokyo, thank you.
Even by North Korean standards, the statements and actions of the Kim Jong-Il regime are provocative. So much so that even China, North Korea's only real friend in the region, appears ready to endorse some sanctions aimed at punishing Pyongyang.
CNN's Hugh Riminton joining us from Beijing with more on that, -- Hugh. HUGH RIMINTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Now, Miles, there's absolutely no question about this, China has been stunned by the fact that its longtime friend and ally, North Korea, has conducted this test against warnings from China not to do so. There is talk of sanctions, and China acknowledges that punitive action must be taken.
But here is where the language breaks away from that that we're hearing coming from Washington. They say that there must be a calm response. They say that the humanitarian needs of the people of North Korea have to be taken into account with any sanctions. They have said that these sanctions must be constructive, appropriate and prudent.
And the great fear in China, of course, is that if they were to take any action really to punish North Korea, perhaps by turning off the fuel taps that North Korea relies on, or perhaps some of the food supplies that North Korea needs, that that might cause some instability, possibly even cause the regime to collapse, that would bring chaos to the Korean peninsula and unpredictable consequences. China doesn't want that to happen.
M. O'BRIEN: Hugh Riminton, thank you very much.
Now to -- from North Korea to Iran, a high-level meeting today to try to stop Iran from marching down the road toward nuclear weapons. The five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany will discuss the possibility of new sanctions later today. Iran has vowed not to give up its nuclear program -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Thanks, Miles.
Let's take you to Iraq now where a startling report just released shows that the war has caused 655,000 civilian deaths. That's 20 times now what's been reported by the U.S. in the past.
Let's get right to CNN's Arwa Damon. She's got more on the study. She's live for us in Baghdad.
Arwa, good morning.
ARWA DAMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
Now that estimate was actually extrapolated from a survey that was done on some 1,800 households. That is about 13,000 people. What they have deduced based on those estimates is that over 600,000 Iraqis have died since the invasion here in Iraq, since the beginning of this war.
But now this number is incredibly higher than any other figure we have heard in the past, bearing in mind that it is only an estimate and the mathematical extrapolation done based on the survey. But the highest number, just to put this into perspective, that we have heard in the past was around 50,000. That was coming from Iraq body count, which is one of the higher estimates out there that are reliable. That is putting the casualties at about 50,000. So this number that we're seeing is over half a million higher than that higher number. There are some other numbers out there that are estimating 100,000 Iraqis have died during the war. But again, this number that we're seeing right now of 600,000, which is only an estimate, much, much higher than that as well.
The United Nations right now in its most recent report is estimating that in July and August, its figures based on that, that some 1,500 Iraqis are dying because of sectarian violence a month, 3,000 approximately because of other violence. But again, these numbers are much lower than this new figure that we're seeing.
Now it is incredibly difficult though here in Iraq to actually get an accurate estimate of civilian deaths. We rely on the Ministry of Health, on the Ministry of Interior, on counts from hospitals and morgues. But even now it is becoming more difficult to get numbers from the Ministry of Health. They themselves admitting that they often don't have an accurate count.
But we did speak with one of the officials from the Ministry of Health just a few moments ago. He said that this number was very, very high. But he also said that they were facing many challenges in trying to get an accurate figure themselves -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: So he said, Arwa, the number is very high, obviously, and they are trying to get an active count. Did he say that the numbers were too high, he didn't agree with them or did he just say they're high and we're not sure?
DAMON: No, he pretty much said, look, this is a very high number. You know we don't agree with it based on information we have. It is too high.
But you also have to realize that this government is incredibly reluctant to put out casualty figures. They are under incredible stress from both the people and the U.S. government to bring an end to this violence. And the release of a figure such as 600,000, even though it is much higher than anything we have heard before and it is only an estimate, does come at a very sensitive time for the government here that is trying so desperately to bring the violence under control and is under immense pressure to disarm the militias here which are being blamed for a large part of the violence and the deaths -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Arwa Damon in Baghdad for us.
Arwa, thanks.
Also in Iraq, the U.S. military confirming a mortar attack on the U.S. base. Take a look at the video just in to CNN. This is southwest Baghdad that you're taking a look at. There were huge explosions last night. Those explosions shook buildings for at least four miles away. No deaths or injuries were reported, though.
In Gaza today, an Israeli airstrike on a home of a member of the Palestinian Parliament, the home of Umm Nidal, an outspoken member of the governing Hamas group, was hit. She has often voiced pride that three of her sons died in the Palestinian uprising. An Israeli spokesman said the home was attacked because arms were made and stored there. Nobody was injured in that attack.
M. O'BRIEN: With midterm elections less than four weeks away, House Speaker Dennis Hastert no doubt eager to put the Mark Foley scandal behind him. He is once again promising to fire anyone on his staff who may have covered up for the disgraced former congressman.
CNN's Dana Bash with more from Capitol Hill.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (on camera): House Speaker Dennis Hastert is still trying to clean up the political mess the Mark Foley scandal left for the GOP. Dennis Hastert told reporters he doesn't think any of his top aides tried to hide Foley's inappropriate contact with pages, but said if anyone did, they'll be fired. And in the face of intense criticism his staff bungled the Foley matter, Hastert said that with -- quote -- "20/20 hindsight probably you could do everything a little bit better."
And in another development, Republican Congressman Jim Kolbe issued a formal statement admitting that he passed along, but did not follow up on, a complaint he got five or six years ago that Mark Foley sent an e-mail to a former page that made that former page feel -- quote -- "uncomfortable." The Arizona Republican said he recommended informing the House clerk's office and Mark Foley's office but said he did not confront Foley himself.
And CNN is also told that former Foley Chief of Staff Kirk Fordham, who has said he has tried to get top Republican staffers to intervene about Foley's behavior, will testify before the House Ethics Committee this Thursday.
Dana Bash, CNN, Capitol Hill.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
M. O'BRIEN: The Foley scandal and pessimism about the war in Iraq still hurting President Bush's popularity. Here's a look at the average ratings from several recent polls. The president's approval rating dropped five percentage points since Mark Foley resigned. Four polls conducted this past weekend show the president's approval rating at 37 percent. The week before Foley's resignation, the president's average approval rating was at 42 percent -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, here is what it looks like in downtown Franklin, Virginia. There you go, kind of a mess there. You can see the flooding. Residents eager to return to their homes and check out their businesses to see what's left. We'll take you there just ahead this morning.
Also, is there a link between fashion and your fertility? We'll share the results of an intriguing new study.
That's all ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: North Korea's claims it exploded a nuclear bomb causing debate among likely 2008 presidential candidates. The question, which administration is more to blame for the crisis?
Brian Todd with our story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The political infighting in the U.S. over who lost North Korea has gone nuclear.
SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: Some of the reasons we are facing this danger is because of the failed policies of the Bush administration. And I regret deeply their failure to deal with the threat posed by North Korea.
TODD: Specifically, Senator Clinton's aides tell CNN she believes the Bush administration should have done more than rely on six nation talks that have so far failed to get Kim Jong-Il to give up his nuclear ambitions.
The man who may run for president against her in two years had this to say.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: I would remind Senator Clinton and other Democrats critical of the Bush administration policies that the framework agreement her husband's administration negotiated was a failure. We had a carrots and no sticks policy that only encouraged bad behavior. When one carrot didn't work, we offered another. Now we are facing the consequences.
TODD: Contacted by CNN, a spokesman for President Clinton said North Korea conducted no nuclear weapons development during the eight years of that administration. And on McCain -- quote -- "It is unfortunate that anyone would attempt to rewrite history to score political points at a time when we need to address this serious threat."
But security experts say North Korea likely would have pursued this program regardless of the approach.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Kim Il Sung, the Great Leader, the father of Kim Jong-Il the current leader, saw what nuclear weapons did for Mao Tse-Tung in China four decades ago.
TODD: And Chris Hill, the current U.S. negotiator for North Korea, points out that the North built what he calls its first ramshackle nuclear reactor back in the 1970s.
(on camera): One expert points out this current debate could even be harmful to U.S. national security. The North Koreans, he says, are watching this, looking for seams inside America's political system to see how much maneuvering room they can get.
Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
S. O'BRIEN: It's just about quarter past the hour, and if you're about to head out the door, hang on, Chad Myers is going to check the weather for you.
Good morning, -- Chad.
MYERS: Good morning, Soledad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
S. O'BRIEN: All right, Chad, thank you.
MYERS: You're welcome.
S. O'BRIEN: There were some signs of snow, some early signs of winter I guess you could call it, in the mountains of Lake Tahoe, California. Take a look at the pictures here. Yes, that's the residents digging out from a snowstorm. Is this what's to come for the rest of the country this winter?
CNN meteorologist Rob Marciano has a report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST (voice-over): After a long, hot summer, winter is almost here, as evidenced by these early sprinklings of snow in Colorado. But the forecast from the federal government is calling for more warm weather. It says winter temperatures will average above normal everywhere except the southeast. As far as rain and snow, precipitation will be above normal in the southwest and southeast and below normal in the Tennessee Valley and northern Rockies.
MICHAEL HALPERT, NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: The main driver for this upcoming winter is current weak El Nino conditions that have developed rather rapidly over the last month or two. We expect them to persist and potentially strengthen.
MARCIANO (on camera): All El Nino is is a pool of warm water that sometimes develops in the tropical Pacific. Now El Nino can't create an individual storm, but what it does do is it changes the global wind patterns. And for the United States, the wind pattern or the jet stream during an El Nino often split into two. And what that does is it keeps the cold air locked up to the north and brings moisture down to the southeast and southwest.
(voice-over): The last strong El Nino was in 1997 and '98. California got hammered. But Halpert doesn't think it will get that strong.
HALPERT: While we currently have weak El Nino conditions and we can see this becoming a moderate strain, we certainly don't expect this year to end up as strong as the 1997-'98 event was. MARCIANO: Nino or not, it doesn't take much for the earth to give way in the hills of sunny southern California, especially after a year of record wildfires, leaving some California mountains stripped of the vegetation that anchors the dirt. Mudslides can happen with just moderate amounts of rain, like in January 2005, or after the big wildfires of 2003. Neither of those years had El Nino, yet Californians still suffered.
But not all weather forecasts are bad news. Rain will help fire in drought-stricken plains. El Nino might save you some money heating your home this winter. And there has never been a freeze in Florida during an El Nino year. Good news for citrus growers. And a mild winter means no big snowstorms, right? In other words, don't pack away your snow shovel just yet, winter hasn't even arrived.
Rob Marciano, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
S. O'BRIEN: It's flooding that's causing major problems for residents in southeast Virginia this morning. About two feet of water in downtown Franklin, and that's about 20 miles from the North Carolina border. Franklin business owners sadly are no strangers to flooding. Back in 1999 you might remember Hurricane Floyd devastated the area causing about $100 million in damage. It's a real mess for them there -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Coming up, fashion and fertility. Women who dress to the nines may think they got the idea from "Vogue," but the real motivator might be in a scientific journal. We'll explain next.
And it's kind of hard to plan life's emergencies. But if you could, a new study says you can predict when your wait at the emergency room will be shortest.
Stay with us for more AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: In America this morning, in Pennsylvania, those chilling 911 calls made by the man who killed five Amish girls at a school last week. Now police will not release the tape, but the transcripts show that Charles Roberts warned state troopers that they had two seconds to get off the grounds then they began -- and he began shooting before they could even react.
In a New York court, a lawsuit over bedbug bites against Marriott Hotels. A woman and her two sons claim they were bitten hundreds of times while they were staying at a Marriott Hotel in Disneyland in California. They are now suing the hotel. And a spokesman for Marriott says they have not seen the lawsuit and they can't comment on it.
In California, a court decision that UPS can't automatically prevent deaf and hearing impaired people from driving delivery trucks. An appeals court agreed that UPS violated anti-discrimination laws. The decision says that the applicants were not given a chance to show that they could drive safely -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Well it's beginning to sound like a broken record, another day, another record for the Dow. When will it all end?
Andy Serwer knows the answer, right?
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: I do.
M. O'BRIEN: Well, not really. You can guess, though, right?
SERWER: I can guess as well as anyone, -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes, you can.
SERWER: That's why I'm here this morning. Yes, indeed, a record this morning, Miles, but a very, very, very small one. The Dow was up...
M. O'BRIEN: Hey, it's still a record.
SERWER: It is.
M. O'BRIEN: Give them credit.
SERWER: The Dow set a new high of eight-tenths of 1 percent. You can see here it's up nine, but it only beat the previous record by less than a point. Still, as you suggest, Miles, we'll take it. And really the good news is here the market is not going gangbusters higher at this point. But oftentimes after we hit a new record, it will go back down as people lock in profits and sell out. So that's not happening.
Other news to tell you about this morning, is there a mega deal brewing on Wall Street? It looks like that might be the case. Shares of Anheuser-Busch up yesterday after a report that Eddie Lampert, a hedge fund honcho, is interested in buying this company out. He'd be making an offer, reports say, of $56 a share. The stock trades for $44 a share. So we'll be watching that one. Eddie Lampert is the man behind K-Mart's merger with Sears and he is also the chairman of that company now, Sears Holding.
M. O'BRIEN: Some heady numbers there and...
SERWER: Yeasty even you could say.
M. O'BRIEN: ... I don't know. Yes.
SERWER: Yes.
M. O'BRIEN: You could.
SERWER: And also earnings season, Miles, to tell you about. Alcoa, the first big company reporting, and this is the expectations game, write large. Earnings up 86 percent, but that wasn't good enough for Wall Street, they were expecting a little bit more. And the commodities boom, oil, natural gas, steel, aluminum seems to be running out of steam. That's what has Wall Street a little bit concerned.
M. O'BRIEN: Up 86 percent not good enough.
SERWER: Not good enough.
M. O'BRIEN: Man!
SERWER: What have you done for me lately?
M. O'BRIEN: Tough crowd down there.
SERWER: It sure is.
M. O'BRIEN: What's up next?
SERWER: We're going to be talking about Bed, Bath, Beyond and stock options, continues in another company the problems in that field.
M. O'BRIEN: All right, Andy, see you in a bit.
SERWER: Thanks.
M. O'BRIEN: Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Well we've got a new meaning now to the old phrase dress for success. It seems there is a direct correlation between fertility and fashion. A new study out found that women tend to dress better when they're ovulating. The researchers hypothesize that it's a subliminal response to attract a mate -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Looks like football can be tough, even if you're only watching it on TV. A doctor has found that there is a dramatic jump in the number of emergency room visits once a televised game is over. It's all that chest butting and all that stuff, right? You do that, right? Yes.
SERWER: Fighting afterwards.
M. O'BRIEN: Fighting afterwards, yes, because they just lost a lot of money maybe. A small study in -- and we don't recommend wagering though. A small study in Baltimore found men's ER visits are down while the game is on and then jump 40 percent after the game is over. I hope they didn't spend too much money on that study, I could have told you that.
SERWER: Yes. Yes.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes, anyway.
Still to come on the program this morning, the latest on North Korea, including a defiant new threat.
And more and more states are adopting no smoking rules in restaurants and bars and the dramatic difference that is making.
You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: Good morning. It is Wednesday, October 11. I'm Miles O'Brien.
S. O'BRIEN: And I'm Soledad O'Brien.
Let's take you straight to the newswall for a look at some of the stories we're following for you this morning.
As the world figures out what to do about North Korea, Pyongyang is now saying that it would consider sanctions a -- quote -- "declaration of war."
M. O'BRIEN: The other nuclear worry, Iran also on the radar this morning. U.S. and five of its allies will discuss whether sanctions are necessary to deter Iran from processing uranium as part of its disputed nuclear program.
S. O'BRIEN: And a new study just coming out this morning estimates that more than 650,000 Iraqis have died since the U.S. invasion.
M. O'BRIEN: Now the bottom of the hour, let's get Chad Myers in, get a forecast for you.
Hello, -- Chad.
MYERS: Good morning, Miles.
Good morning, Soledad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
S. O'BRIEN: All right, Chad, thank you.
Now to the North Korean nuclear threat, North Korea saying there could be more tests if the U.S. presses ahead with sanctions.
For the very latest on the story, we have Sohn Jie-Ae. She's in Seoul, South Korea. Nic Robertson is in London for us this morning.
Let's begin in South Korea, where military leaders are taking a closer look at their options.
Jie-ae, good morning.
SOHN JIE-AE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
South Korean military leaders are looking at -- more closely at their options because of such words by North Korea. North Korea's central news agency came out with another belligerent statement saying that if the United States continues to hound it, and it continues to apply pressure, that North Korea would be forced to consider it a declaration of war and be forced to quote -- what it says -- "to take physical countermeasures."
Now, this, plus continued talk of another nuclear test by North Korea, is increasing the air of apprehension here in South Korea. Earlier we took a cab ride to really figure out what the normal South Koreans felt and how they were dealing with all of this. The cab driver said many South Koreans were worried but they were going along with their everyday lives. But they were very angry and very upset at both North Korea, at the South Korean government, and many, including the United States, who feel -- all take responsibility for taking the South Korean peninsula to this state -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Jie-ae, thank you very much.
And there are questions about whether Pakistan is actually linked to North Korea's suspected nuclear test.
CNN Senior International Correspondent Nic Robertson live with that in London.
Nic, good morning to you.
What's the Pakistan-North Korea connection, exactly?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There is a very definitive connection. President Musharraf in his book says that Pakistan gave North Korea centrifuges which are used in making highly- enriched uranium. He gave about two dozen, or the country gave about two dozen of these to North Korea.
Now, this highly-enriched uranium, fissile material used in making some nuclear bombs. However, most analysts are saying that at this time the test in North Korea was using plutonium. And that's what Pakistanis are saying in their defense, that Pakistan had no connection with North Korea's test.
However, there are some very serious concerns about the person who is known as the father of Pakistan's own nuclear bomb, A.Q. Khan. He visited North Korea. He at one time sold missile designs to Libya. It is feared he may have sold missile designs to North Korea, which may have given it a serious head start.
And of course analysts say that for North Korea, those missile designs would have been hugely important because they know that they couldn't get an aircraft to carry a bomb and drop it anywhere. If they're going to put a nuclear warhead on anything, it's going to be in a missile.
And analysts are also saying that they need to talk to A.Q. Khan to find out exactly what he told and gave the North Koreans -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: What are analysts saying about the likelihood that North Korea could potentially try to sell the technology they have?
ROBERTSON: Well, North Korea has a long history of selling its military technology. It sells missiles and missile parts to Iran and to Syria. And the concern is that if they could successfully develop a nuclear weapon, they could sell and move on this technology.
There are concerns that A.Q. Khan, who had a network, if you will, of nations that he sold information to, including Iran, and perhaps including Korea at this stage, that A.Q. Khan was trying to draw North Korea into his network and spread that information further. So, there are very serious concerns that North Korea could try and propagate this technology, but at the moment it appears they're not at that point -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Nic Robertson in London for us this morning.
Nic, thank you.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says direct, independent talks with North Korea would send the wrong message. She appeared in "THE SITUATION ROOM" with Wolf Blitzer last night. Secretary Rice says the international community has to speak with one voice.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: The United States of America doesn't have any intention to attack North Korea, or -- or to invade North Korea.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: So the military option is not really...
RICE: The president never takes any of his options off the table. But, the United States somehow, in a provocative way, trying to invade North Korea? It's just not the case.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
S. O'BRIEN: You can catch "THE SITUATION ROOM" with Wolf Blitzer each weekday at 4:00 and then 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time -- Miles.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council also has to decide how to handle Iran's nuclear ambitions. Iran says it will not give up its nuclear program. Potential sanctions against that country will be discussed during a video conference today with officials from the five permanent members of the Security Council, as well as Germany.
A stunning and controversial new estimate on Iraqi civilian deaths since the U.S. invasion more than three and a half years ago -- 655,000 Iraqis dead, according to the estimate. Far higher than any other numbers we've been able to gather.
CNN's Cal Perry joining us live from Baghdad on the estimate, how it was done, and how it jives with other numbers we've been hearing -- Cal.
CAL PERRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, good morning to you, Miles.
This an academic survey. It could turn out to be historically stunning. As you said, 650,000 Iraqis killed since the start of the war, according to this survey. It is broader, it is far broader, far greater than any survey we've heard in the past by over about a half- million Iraqis.
On the ground here in Baghdad, the holy month of Ramadan, coupled with a security effort to secure the capital, has in many ways only served to fuel more violence.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PERRY (voice over): This is the scene after the bodies are found. How bad is the sectarian violence in Iraq? Bodies are the barometer. And in one day, more than 60 were found in the capital. Many of them mutilated, executed, bound.
Relatives grieving outside hospitals to collect their loved ones. This, a scene that is played out in the capital more than 280 times so far this month. No end in sight to the tit-for-tat sectarian killings.
COL. JEFFREY MCCAUSLAND, U.S. ARMY (RET.): We have added that deadly mix, intersectarian violence, which is the center point of everybody's attention in Iraq. And obviously if we can't dampen down the intersectarian violence, the possibility of civil war certainly looms large.
PERRY: Besides the mounting toll of Iraqi casualties, a deadly October continues for U.S. troops. More than 30 killed in combat in the first 10 days of October. Most of them as U.S. and Iraqi forces press ahead with Operation Together Forward, aimed at flushing extremists out of Baghdad. More U.S. troops on the streets means more U.S. casualties.
MCCAUSLAND: We've seen this dramatic upsurge in killing, particularly in Baghdad, and certainly we must get control of that situation. And the next few months will be certainly critical in that effort.
PERRY: Operation Together Forward has yielded its successes, according to the U.S. military, saying that overall attacks are up, but their "effectiveness" is down.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PERRY: Now, Miles, we've been talking all morning, of course, about these stunning academic figures, 650,000 Iraqis killed since the start of the war. Another important figure to remember while fighting continues in the capital, 300,000 Iraqis have been displaced across the country from sectarian violence -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Cal, there are some who would say the release of this report, and that stunning number a month before the election, might have some political motivation.
PERRY: Well it certainly could, domestically speaking, right before the midterm elections, this academic report, which, as I said, its figures are far higher, far higher by about a half a million Iraqis. Important to remember historical context here, Miles. A lot of these conflicts, we look at Kosovo, we look at Vietnam, it takes years -- years sometimes to figure out exactly how many civilians have been killed.
It's a very difficult number to get from U.S. military officials. We can't even get military officials to give us the number of U.S. troops wounded until months after they've fought -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Cal Perry in Baghdad.
Thank you very much.
In America this morning, charges filed against that 13-year-old boy who fired a shot from an assault rifle inside a Missouri school. Among the charges, first-degree assault, armed criminal action, and making a terrorist threat. A hearing today will determine whether he will be tried as a juvenile or as an adult.
Also in Missouri, State Representative Jason Brown is home after being wounded while serving in Iraq. But the Army Reserve staff sergeant's duty not done. He's just home for a 30-day leave. Then back to Iraq. And on top of it, he's up for re-election.
Busy guy.
A Virginia woman wants to give her adopted son back. Helen Briggs (ph), a longtime foster mother, says she had no idea about her 15-year-old son's psychological problems and his troubled past. His problems came to light after he molested two younger children, allegedly. Briggs (ph) says she was only told the boy was hyperactive.
In Louisiana, it's now OK to drink tap water all over New Orleans. Water service restored to the northern section of the Lower Ninth Ward, finally, the last remaining section without drinkable water since Hurricane Katrina. Thousands of homes there have been without drinkable water for more than a year now -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Still to come on this AMERICAN MORNING, clearing the air about the benefits of smoke-free restaurants and bars. Dr. Sanjay Gupta joins us straight ahead.
Plus, diamonds are a girl's best friend. But sometimes a girl has got to kick her friends to the curb. Find out how you can cash in on actress Ellen Barkin's bad marriage.
AMERICAN MORNING is back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: Here's a look now at stories that CNN correspondents around the world are covering today.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm John Vause in Jerusalem, where the Israeli government has its own concerns after North Korea's alleged test of a nuclear device. But here the focus is on Iran, which has defiantly pushed ahead with its own nuclear program, claiming it's for civilian purposes. But Israeli intelligence believes Tehran could have nuclear weapons within the next few years, and there are fears that help could now come from Pyongyang.
Israeli officials are also closely watching how the U.N. deals with North Korea. They believe anything less than full punishing sanctions will only encourage the Iranians.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
JEFF KOINANGE, CNN AFRICA CORRESPONDENT: I'm Jeff Koinange in Johannesburg.
A new report by Amnesty International says more than 11,000 children in the Democratic Republic of Congo remain in armed groups or unaccounted for. This, despite a cease-fire signed more than three years ago ending a brutal civil war that left more than four million people dead.
Congo's government launched a program more than two years ago to release and reintegrate these former child soldiers into civilian life, but with little success. Every day, more than 1,200 people, most of them children, die in the Congo due to war-related incidents.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm Matthew Chance in Moscow.
Hundreds turned out to pay tribute to one of Russia's most outspoken journalists. Anna Politkovskaya was a fierce critic of the Kremlin and a tireless campaigner for human rights. She was gunned down in a suspected contract killing at a Moscow apartment building at the weekend. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has vowed a thorough investigation but has rejected suggestions that any Russian official may have been responsible. The killing he said may have been intended to create a wave of anti-Russian feeling across the world.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
S. O'BRIEN: For more on these or any of our top stories, log on to our Web site at CNN.com.
M. O'BRIEN: It's about quarter of. Let's check in with Chad once again with a look at the forecast.
Hello, Chad.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: You going to Shea Stadium tonight, Miles?
M. O'BRIEN: No. Past my bedtime. MYERS: Yes, of course.
M. O'BRIEN: You know that.
MYERS: But -- yes. But tens of thousands of others will be headed there, and there will be some showers ahead of this front.
(WEATHER REPORT)
M. O'BRIEN: All right. Thank you very much, Chad.
Coming up, the benefits of a smoke-free workplace. A new study now showing some surprising results.
Stay with us for more AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: Smoking bans in bars and restaurants, an idea that's sweeping the nation. Depending on which side of the death sticks you breathe on, you may either love or hate the mass clearing of the air. But now there is no doubt it is healthier.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta with more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN SR. MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Myra Cordona (ph) is a bartender in a smoke-free restaurant in Montgomery County, Maryland. She doesn't smoke.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It hurts my eyes, it irritates my eyes. And so, you know, I'm kind of glad that I work at a non-free restaurant with a bar that's nonsmoking.
GUPTA: Just seven miles away, Paul Hickey (ph) works in Washington, where a smoking ban will be imposed in January. He is a smoker.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I just don't see how smoking in a bar really, you know -- secondhand smoke, I don't know if I'm really sold on that.
GUPTA: The debate over smoke-free environments rages on, even though the negative health effects of secondhand smoke have been documented. In June, the surgeon general found a causal relationship between secondhand smoke and premature death.
PAUL BILLINGS, AMERICAN LUNG ASSOCIATION: Secondhand smoke causes lung cancer, premature death from heart attack, and a wide range of other respiratory health effects. Secondhand smoke is very harmful for public health and no one should have to be exposed to it in their workplace.
GUPTA: Now a new study in the "Journal of the American Medical Association" found bar workers in Scotland had significant improvements in respiratory symptoms and lung function only two months after a smoke-free policy was implemented. The numbers seem to bear that out. Before the ban, nearly 80 percent of these workers reported some type of respiratory symptom like wheezing, shortness of breath, and things like irritated eyes, throat pain and inflamed airways.
MATTHEW MYERS, CAMPAIGN FOR TOBACCO-FREE KIDS: Laws banning smoking in bars and restaurants result in an immediate improvement in the people who work there, and an improvement in the health of the patrons of those places.
GUPTA: Lung and blood tests were performed before and after the ban. And at the end of two months, only about 47 percent reported having any symptoms. Clean air advocates say smoking bans are becoming more accepted. Even popular.
BILLINGS: The debate's over. The scientific consensus is clear that secondhand smoke kills, and we need to eliminate exposure. Ventilation, non-smoking sections, these things do not work.
GUPTA: Some restaurant owners say smoking bans are bad for business.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's certainly not going to put me out of business. But we're going to lose a little business because of it.
GUPTA: But advocates of a smoke-free environment say bars and restaurants and places where smoking is now restricted have seen an increase in business, not a decrease.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN reporting.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
S. O'BRIEN: Ahead in just a moment, "Minding Your Business," including an investigation of Apple.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: A failed marriage was profitable for the actress Ellen Barkin. She took in just over $20 million by auctioning off the jewelry that she got from her now ex-husband, the billionaire Ron Perelman.
There was the 22-carat diamond ring, oval cut. That went for just over a million dollars. Diamond bangles went for $1,130,000. And she even tossed in the old wedding ring. That was estimated to get somewhere between 30 grand and 50 grand. She got $156,000 for it.
M. O'BRIEN: Wow.
S. O'BRIEN: She's following in the footsteps of Cher, apparently, who had a garage sale and made $3 million.
Barkin and Perelman were married for just six years.
Talking business news now, Apple tried to solve its stock options problems, and that created some more problems.
Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" this morning.
Good morning.
ANDY SERWER, EDITOR-AT-LARGE, "FORTUNE": Good morning, Soledad.
There's never just one problem, it seems, in this kind of a situation here. We're talking about Apple Computer.
"The Wall Street Journal" reporting this morning that the special committee the computer company set up to investigate the stock option problems may have problems of its own. It's a three-person committee, and the paper's reporting that two of these people may have conflicts of interest that might not make them appropriate to investigate this problem.
First of all, number one, Jerome York. You know him. He was on the board of GM until recently. And he was also on the board of Apple Computer, and on the committee that awarded some of these stock options.
S. O'BRIEN: Ah.
SERWER: How can you investigate if you're the person who awarded?
S. O'BRIEN: Yes, that's no good.
SERWER: He's recusing himself from part of it, he said, but interesting.
Number two, Eric Schmidt. He's now the CEO of Google. You probably know his name.
He was the CEO of a company called Novell. Novell is investigating a stock option problem that occurred under his watch.
S. O'BRIEN: Ooh.
SERWER: The third member of this committee apparently has no conflict of interest. He's former vice president Al Gore.
S. O'BRIEN: So what's going to happen with the other two?
SERWER: Well, the company says it's still OK. It may not be OK if there's more pressure brought to bear.
Speaking of a stock option scandal, Soledad, another company involved. Bed Bath & Beyond saying it has -- it was rife with stock option dating problems from 1992 to 2006. Misdated stock options 44 times. Of course 37 of those were in favor of the people getting the...
S. O'BRIEN: Misdating.
SERWER: Yes. It cost them $74 million.
And then finally, this is from the department of "It's Just a Coincidence". Sprint Nextel chairman Tim Donahue stepping down yesterday, the same day it was revealed that the company did millions of dollars of business with his brother-in-law.
A Sprint spokesman says here, "It's just a coincidence this was announced on the same day, filed on the same day. It's purely coincidence."
Methinks the spokesman doth protest a little bit too much there.
S. O'BRIEN: Wow, that's...
SERWER: Businessmen continue to do their thing, Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: You know, and now...
SERWER: And it's not all good.
S. O'BRIEN: And you have a lot to talk about.
SERWER: I do.
S. O'BRIEN: And you will continue to.
SERWER: It's a full employment act (ph).
S. O'BRIEN: Yes, it is, for you.
Andy Serwer, thank you.
SERWER: Thanks, Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Miles.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
M. O'BRIEN (voice over): Here's a look at some of the stories on CNN.com.
John Lennon's killer not walking free any time soon. Mark David Chapman denied parole for the fourth time. Chapman is serving life for shooting Lennon outside his Manhattan apartment building in 1980. The parole board cited the bizarre nature of his crime. The decision coming one day after the Beatles legend would have turned 66.
Chapman's next parole hearing in two years.
Madonna is in Malawi, remaining mum about whether she is on a mission to become a mum to a 1-year-old boy. But the boy's father and government officials of the desperately poor African nation say it is true.
Johann Bonda (ph) says his wife died a month after his son was born and he's very happy for his son David. He says he has been assured David will make frequent trips to Malawi to know his roots.
And the "Funny Girl" drops the "F" bomb at Madison Square Garden. Barbra Streisand, returning to touring after a 12-year hiatus, wowed the crowd with her "just like butter" voice, but took time for a skit making fun of the president with a George Bush impersonator.
That drew jeers from a heckler. And that is when she told him to shut the (BLANK) up.
At that point the crowd went wild.
For more on these or any other stories, log on to our Web site, CNN.com.
The next hour of AMERICAN MORNING begins right now.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
S. O'BRIEN: And good morning. Welcome back, everybody. It is Wednesday, October 11th.
I'm Soledad O'Brien.
M. O'BRIEN: And I'm Miles O'Brien.
Thanks for being with us.
Lots happening this morning. We begin at the news wall, as we always do, on the edge over North Korea.
A jittery Japan apparently mistaking a strong earthquake for another underground bomb detonation. Diplomats scrambling to come up with a unified response to the North Korean nuclear threat. But Pyongyang says it will consider any sanctions a declaration of war.
S. O'BRIEN: Also happening on this AMERICAN MORNING, Iran's disputed nuclear program will be discussed by the members of the U.N. Security Council today. A conference called will be held to discuss possible sanctions there.
M. O'BRIEN: Almost 655,000 dead. That is the estimated number of civilian deaths caused by the war in Iraq.
A controversial study out this morning. We'll tell you about it.
S. O'BRIEN: Time to check the weather with Chad Myers, who's watching some cold temperatures.
Good morning to you, Chad.
MYERS: I'll tell you what, Soledad, the end of the growing season, for sure.
(WEATHER REPORT)
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