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American Morning
Hawaii Earthquake; North Korea Sanctions; New Iraq Strategy
Aired October 16, 2006 - 07:59 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you. It is Monday, October 16th.
I'm Miles O'Brien.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Soledad O'Brien.
Lots happening. Let's get right to the news wall.
Hawaii's big island trying to recover after being jolted by a strong earthquake. It's the biggest quake to hit the Hawaiian islands in over 20 years. The entire state has now been declared a disaster area, and it's expected that island could feel aftershocks for weeks to come.
M. O'BRIEN: Also happening this morning, the United Nations votes to impose sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear test. China now blocking and enforcing some key provisions, however. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice heads to Asia tomorrow.
S. O'BRIEN: Drifting sideways. In other words, not making progress. That's how lead Republican senator Chuck Hagel is referring to the situation in Iraq. Senator Hagel is joining Senator Warner, the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and calling for a new strategy in Iraq.
M. O'BRIEN: Let's check the weather now. Chad Myers at the weather center with that.
A wet morning in a lot of places.
Good morning, Chad.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes. Good morning, Miles.
Good morning, Soledad.
Beautiful along the East Coast. Great flying weather, unless you're trying to get over this big system in the plains. It very quickly developed as Gulf moisture came out of the Gulf of Mexico, ran into Houston overnight.
And I've been checking the Harris County totals. Some spots in Harris County, which is really Houston proper, have picked up over 10 inches of rain in 24 hours, and it's still raining. And there's still more to come. When this comes on shore we're going to see more flooding. We just got some pictures in. We'll turn them around as soon as we can for you -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: All right, Chad. Thank you.
Well, people in Hawaii may be feeling aftershocks for weeks from a powerful earthquake. This morning they're assessing the damage from Sunday's quake.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The windows shook. The bed was shaking, because I was still in bed.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: When it came, they just shook. I mean, totally shook. And I just jumped out of bed and I said, "What is that?" And he said, "It's an earthquake." And I said, "Oh, my god."
S. O'BRIEN (voice over): It was quite a wakeup call, a strong 6.6-magnitude earthquake jolting tourists and residents on Hawaii's big island on Sunday morning.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You felt the tremor and stuff, and then it started swaying. And we just grabbed what we could and ran down the stairs.
S. O'BRIEN: Dozens of tremors followed the initial quake, including a 5.8 aftershock. Power outages were widespread and there was significant structural damage.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I came out her and I could not believe this. And there was smoke everywhere, I guess from the concrete and everything. It was filled with it.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And there was a cloud of smoke and everything outside. You know, when you have, like, 9/11, when the buildings go down, all that concrete turns into dust. So, a little mini 9/11, if you will, was outside there.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's been damage to the hospital building, ceiling tiles have come down on our patient care areas. And things have fallen off shelves and racks. We don't know about structural damage yet. We have evacuated patients off of our medical surgical unit and off of our -- out of our nursing unit.
S. O'BRIEN: Hawaii's governor has declared the entire state a disaster area.
The quake and its aftershock set off fears of a Pacific-wide tsunami. But it didn't happen. And so far, there have been no reports of death from the quake.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A gorgeous, gorgeous place. I mean, it is paradise right up until this happened.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
S. O'BRIEN: The 6.6-magnitude earthquake is the biggest to hit the Hawaiian islands since 1983 -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: The U.S. pressing China today to put its actions where its vote is and help enforce a new U.N. resolution punishing Pyongyang for that underground bomb test, but the Chinese, North Korea's only friend in the region, may be balking at going ahead with some of that enforcement.
CNN's Ed Henry live at the White House with more -- Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning again, Miles.
That's right, there has been concern here at the White House that perhaps China has been backpedaling on actually enforcing these sanctions. We have a couple of developments breaking this hour.
CNN has just learned there's been another change to the president's schedule this morning. He was supposed to be meeting with Ambassador John Bolton from the United Nations and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice later this morning to try to figure out how to enforce these sanctions in advance of Secretary Rice's trip to the region this week. That meeting has now been cancelled.
We're told it's unrelated to the sanctions. It's because Ambassador Bolton has been detained at the United Nations this morning. There's going to be a vote on whether or not Venezuela gets a seat on the Security Council.
The White House is till hopeful they will get this joint meeting together here at the Oval Office this afternoon. It's critical because of that concern that perhaps China is backing off these sanctions. Specifically, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations said this weekend that china was not going to inspect cargo along that 880-mile border that it shares with North Korea. That would give these sanctions almost no teeth. But then this morning, just in the last hour on CNN's AMERICAN MORNING, senior State Department official Nicholas Burns suggested in fact China is now inspecting at the border.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NICHOLAS BURNS, UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE: The Chinese are beginning now to inspect the trucks along the 800-mile border and inspect all of them. That's a sign that China is going to implement the resolution it signed up to. And it would be extraordinary if in this day and age, given the importance of this issue, a leading member of the Security Council, a permanent member like China, did not implement the resolution that it agreed to two days ago.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Now, Secretary Burns apparently referring there to an Associated Press report this morning saying that at one border crossing, again, along an 880-mile border with North Korea in Dandong, the Chinese have started inspecting that cargo that he mentioned. But this AP report also says that the officers at that border crossing are only opening the back of -- the backs of trucks. They are not opening up bags and boxes and actually inspecting the cargo that is in there.
So, obviously there are going to be a lot of questions about whether this is -- this is really an inspection process, whether or not there's really some teeth to those inspections. Obviously concern at the White House to make sure these sanctions actually are enforced -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Ed Henry at the White House.
Thank you very much -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Two more American Marines were killed in Iraq on Sunday. That brings the total number of U.S. military deaths in the war to 2,764. And as the death toll continues to rise, more and more Republicans are calling for a new strategy in Iraq.
CNN's Barbara Starr live at the Pentagon for us this morning.
Good morning, Barbara.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Soledad.
Well, Iraq may well be the central front in the war on terror, according to the president, but the question now, that central question, is how to get the U.S. troops out of Iraq.
CNN has confirmed, in fact, that here inside the Pentagon, an additional new option is being studied and considered. And what it basically focuses on is forcing the Iraqis to set timetables for the turnover, province by province, of security from U.S. forces to Iraqi forces, thereby reducing the need for the number of U.S. troops in the country. One source calling this reverse timelines. The basic goal now, get the Iraqis, force them, pressure them, do whatever is required to get them to take over the responsibility for security.
As you say, on Capitol Hill, this is becoming a major issue, a major focal point, getting the Iraqis to step up to it.
Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. CARL LEVIN (D-MI), ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE: We're on a downward spiral in Iraq. We're not succeeding in Iraq. And the way hopefully that we can succeed is by pressuring the Iraqis to make the political compromises relative to resources and relative to power sharing which only they can make.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STARR: Now, of course the administration has long resisted the notion of any type of timetables, equating that, in their words, to cut and run. But I think many people believe what they're now going to start talking about is phased withdrawal. And we are seeing this on several fronts now, Soledad.
The Iraq Study Group, the group being headed by former secretary of state James Baker, also looking at some of these options. And here inside the Pentagon, the chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff, General Peter Pace, also now looking at what options may be on the table, what they might do. Even President Bush saying last week if the military comes to him with new options, new ideas, he will accept them -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Barbara Starr at the Pentagon for us.
Thanks, Barbara -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: With just over three weeks before the election, Democrats are trying to capitalize on several Republican scandals.
AMERICAN MORNING'S Bob Franken is in Washington keeping track of it all. And there's a lot to keep track of.
Hello, Bob.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Miles.
Of course both of us hate exaggeration, said that millions of times, but it is no exaggeration to say that the Republicans have their work cut out for them.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FRANKEN (voice over): The most intense focus recently has been on Mark Foley. But this week's guilty plea by GOP congressman Bob Ney on bribery charges demonstrates that the Republicans' real problem in this election is the cumulative impression of corruption. At least that's how the Democrats see it.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: You have a series of corruption scandals, Tom DeLay, Duke Cunningham, Bob Ney, mark Foley, all Republican-led abuses that I think the American people are fed up with. It's time for change. It's that simple.
FRANKEN: Add to that new word that the Justice Department is investigating allegations that Republican Congressman Curt Weldon steered consulting contracts to a company co-owned by his daughter. Consequently, GOP leaders are having a tough time staying on message.
KEN MEHLMAN, GOP CHAIRMAN: What the American people are going to vote on, they want the economy -- wonder where the economy is.
FRANKEN: Democratic leaders say the economy is just one of the issues out there.
HOWARD DEAN, DNC CHAIRMAN: What I'm interested in is ethical reform and honesty in government. I'm interested in balance of the budget, which we haven't, which Republicans have made a mess of. I'm interested in restoring moral values to the Congress of the United States.
Those are the things that I think you're going to see high on the Democrats' agenda should we win three weeks from now.
MEHLMAN: I'm confident, Wolf, we're going to maintain our majorities in the House and the Senate.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
FRANKEN: Well, there are a lot of polls out there that suggest that the House election, at least, is the Democrats to lose. And an awful lot of people who have been through these before who say that the big question is, are the Democrats going to be able to avoid losing it -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Well, which is often the way that you view Democrats, because they have a way of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory. This time do you think they've got it together?
FRANKEN: Well, we'll find out, won't we?
M. O'BRIEN: Yes, we will.
All right. Thank you very much, Bob Franken.
For more on this or any other political story, log on to our Web site, cnn.com/ticker -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Ahead this morning, the U.N. imposes sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear program, but are those sanctions tough enough to work?
We're going to take a closer look coming up next on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. Twelve minutes past the hour.
If you're about to head out the door, hold on. Let's get a quick check of the traveler's forecast for you. Chad's got that.
Hello, Chad.
MYERS: Good morning, Soledad.
You may want to check that flight to Houston or check that meeting in Houston. Some spots there got 10 inches of rain. And the counties you see here, just to the north of Houston, those are all tornado warnings going on there.
Here's some pictures from KPRC, our affiliate out of Houston. Ten inches of rain in some of the areas, especially east of downtown. Six inches in downtown proper. And this was shot overnight, and the water has not gone down much this morning because it is continuing to rain. That rain will go all morning long and continue through the afternoon and even into tonight.
Rain showers all the way to the north into Chicago. The heavy rain into Louisiana as well. A lot of the parishes of Louisiana picked up severe weather, especially through the bayou.
And now you can see that heaviest rain is headed to Shreveport, headed just to the north of Houston. And so if you have travel problems today, they will be in the Midwest. And if you have travel plans to go to the Midwest, you'll want to call ahead and make sure those plans still exist -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Thank you very much, Chad.
The United Nations has spoken and is now punishing North Korea for that underground bomb test, but will stopping the flow of luxury goods to the Kim Jong-il regime make a difference? And will China actually enforce the embargo?
Former Georgia senator Sam Nunn once chaired the Armed Services Committee. He's now with the Nuclear Threat Initiative. He joins us from Atlanta.
Senator Nunn, good to have you back with us.
SAM NUNN, CHAIRMAN, NUCLEAR THREAT INITIATIVE: Good morning.
M. O'BRIEN: Let's talk about these sanctions: clamping down on luxury goods, Kim Jong-il's cognac and caviar, or whatever. Is that really going to make any difference on the ground in North Korea?
NUNN: I'd say that is pretty much symbolic, and hopefully it will bring some discomfort, but I doubt if it can be enforced. The important thing is not letting nuclear material come out of North Korea or nuclear technology come out of North Korea that could be spread to terrorist groups, in particular, or to other countries.
That is the more formidable task. And that's why it's so important that the United States and China and South Korea be on the same wave length.
I hope we have a meeting of the minds. We certainly don't have a meeting of the spins (ph) this morning, because we're going to have to get together with China and South Korea and have a firm understanding of what is being done.
I think it's important, however, Miles, though, that we not take our eye off the ball. This is not simply about border inspection. This is about having a Korean Peninsula that does not have nuclear weapons.
North Korea made that pledge, and we're going to have to do everything we can to join our allies and to have a united front here. The sanctions are important, but they are as much symbolic as anything else.
The real challenge is to have serious discussions, six-party talks or bilateral, whatever is necessary, so that North Korea can understand that there are both carrots and sticks here. And enormously important that the United States be willing to discuss security assurances with North Korea, because no nation is likely to give up their nuclear weapons unless they have assurances that the negotiating party is not going to insist on regime change and try to bring them down.
M. O'BRIEN: Let's talk about that notion of bilateral talks, direct U.S.-North Korean negotiations. The secretary of state had some words on that over the weekend.
Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: It is so important not to allow this to become a bilateral negotiation, because the north would like nothing better than to simply deal with the United States so that we are the ones that isolate it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
M. O'BRIEN: Do you agree with that?
NUNN: I think the administration has an ideological kind of -- to me, not understandable policy of believing that when you talk to someone, you're rewarding them, and if you won't talk to them, you're punishing them. I don't think that's effective punishment.
But I do believe the six-party talks are perfectly appropriate, as long as we have bilaterals within those six-party talks. I think that's fine. But we've got to sit down face to face with North Korea and have talks, because they've made a big miscalculation here.
They have, I think, humiliated China and South Korea's policy. I think it's a failure of U.S. policy, a failure of China policy, a failure of South Korea policy, a failure of Japan's policy. And we've now got to come together. We're in a race between cooperation and catastrophe, and it's certainly not apparent now who is winning.
M. O'BRIEN: You work now -- your focus is on avoiding the spread of nuclear weapons. The concern now, of course, is that this could lead one way or another to some sort of nuclear arms race in northern Asia.
What can be done to stop that?
NUNN: It's -- well, North Korea is going to be an example not only in northeast Asia, but to Iran. It will be a direct input to Iran as to what we really are serious about and not serious about. But the broader picture is even more challenging.
We've got not only the weapons proliferation in North Korea and Iran, but there are a number of other countries that are about to go into the enrichment process. And once you go into enrichment for making nuclear power, fuel, you can't tell when you cross over and making weapons-grade material.
So we've got a challenge to the whole nonproliferation regime. It's going to take a much broader approach, in my view. We've got to be willing, those of us who have enrichment, those of us who have nuclear weapons, to have all enrichment and all reprocessing. That is, making nuclear material potential, inspected and monitored -- an international regime.
Otherwise, we're being accused by even our friends of hypocrisy on a global school. And we, as Russia, and we as also the other nuclear-enriching nations and nuclear weapons states.
So we've got to, I think, have a new approach. We've got to think anew because the challenges are new.
And also, I think it's important to have a reserve backup fuel bank so we can assure countries that they don't have to enrich in order to have assurances of a nuclear fuel supply. And we think that ought to be under the International Atomic Energy Agency.
M. O'BRIEN: Right.
NUNN: It's also important, a third step, to begin to delegitimize highly-enriched uranium that's used in commerce, because that's the raw material of terrorism. If we keep spouting this stuff out, increasing the production of it, at some point one of our great cities in this country around the globe is going to go up in smoke, and that's going to be a changed world.
M. O'BRIEN: I should say.
We'll have to leave it there.
Sam Nunn, former Georgia senator, now chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
Thanks for your time -- Soledad.
NUNN: Thank you, Miles. Thank you.
S. O'BRIEN: Sort of in keeping with what the senator was saying, just a moment ago there's a new report out on America's power grids. It says there could be some dark days ahead.
Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" with that story straight ahead.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: Here's a look at some of the top stories we're following today. A jolt from the blue in Hawaii. The big island recovering after a strong earthquake, the biggest to hit the Hawaiian islands in over 20 years.
Power still out in many places. The entire state declared a disaster. The island could feel aftershocks for weeks to come.
And a state of emergency declared for areas of upstate New York socked by record snowfall. The storm left over two feet of snow. Three dead, nearly 400,000 homes and businesses without power still this morning -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Miles, thank you.
Could an energy shortage leave us in the dark once again?
Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" with that question this morning.
Good morning.
ANDY SERWER, EDITOR-AT-LARGE, "FORTUNE": Good morning, Soledad.
This does not look good. You know, the price of electricity has been climbing over the past couple years. Anyone can tell you that with their monthly electric bill. And now a new study out today says that we're not building enough power plants or power lines in this country, and soon, over the next year or so, demand may exceed supply such that we will see brownouts during peak hours -- peak periods, I should say -- in Texas, New England, the Middle Atlantic and Midwest, which is to say almost everywhere, except the western United States. And that is really, really bad news.
Demand is supposed to be climbing about 19 percent over the next decade. We're only going to be building -- increasing transmission lines by 7 percent. And that is a real problem.
Not building new power plants, Soledad, and a lot of that has to do with controversy over coal fire plants. You know, we get about 50 percent of our electricity from coal fire plants.
S. O'BRIEN: What's the controversy?
SERWER: Well, the controversy is about greenhouse gases, of course. And, you know, whether to build them, where to build them, as in your back yard? My back yard? That's the problem.
And then the other one is there's a new technology that's being brought to bear on these power plants. And the question is -- but they're very cutting edge and experimental. They're cleaner, but we don't know if they're going to work. They're more expensive; we don't know if they're going to work.
So you can build an older, dirtier one for less money...
S. O'BRIEN: And be guaranteed it's going to work. SERWER: ... and be guaranteed it's going to work. Or spend more money building one that's going to be cleaner, but you don't know if it's going to work.
Listen to this -- 154 plants are proposed right now in 42 states. On the drawing board. Obviously, we need them because of what I was just talking about, supply and demand problem.
Texas, for instance, one of those states that desperately is going to need more power. There are 16 plants being proposed, but there's so much discussion right now, which is warranted. But at some point we're going to have to really move ahead or turn to nuclear power. But hose plants are very expensive and take a decade to build.
So you can see we have this problem.
S. O'BRIEN: More controversial often.
SERWER: Absolutely. So it's a growing problem right now.
S. O'BRIEN: All right. Kind of ominous there. All right, Andy. Thank you.
SERWER: Thank you.
S. O'BRIEN: Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Thank you, Soledad.
Coming up, we're in for a wild election night only three weeks from now. Democrats hoping to snatch the reigns of power on Capitol Hill. Can they do it? We'll mix it up with a couple of political pros on both sides of the aisle.
But first, here's today's edition of "Welcome to the Future".
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: With the technologies out today, there's no reason why every vote shouldn't be counted.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The most frustration I faced in voting today is long lines.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think it would be easier to have the online voting.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There needs to be a physical printout of each person that's voted.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everything is going to be done through your cell phone. I would definitely vote from my cell phone. I think it would be perfect.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm not sure if the way you vote makes that big of a difference, as long as the results, you know, are correct. M. O'BRIEN: What if we could simply log onto the Web or flip open our cell phones to cast our votes? Some insist it's just around the corner. Others say, though, there are larger problems within our voting system that need to be addressed first.
(voice over): MIT's Ted Selker wants to change the way America casts its votes.
TED SELKER, MIT: Registration problems account for the biggest number of lost votes. After that, polling place operations and ballot design problems are the next biggest ones.
M. O'BRIEN: Selker and his team are testing some new technologies designed to make voting easier, more efficient, and yet tamper proof.
SELKER: Technology has the possibility of making the voting process better by making sure the records can't be destroyed as easily. We have computers in every step of the game.
M. O'BRIEN: And while Selker does see a future that includes online voting, he says accuracy and security must come first.
SELKER: Voting by computer, voting by phone will be much cheaper to administer. It becomes exciting when it means that we can check our work, we can be sure of our ballots. And until we have that under control, we have to be very careful about how we deploy this equipment.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. I'm Soledad O'Brien.
M. O'BRIEN: And I'm Miles O'Brien.
Let's take a look at the news wall. Here are some of the stories we're following for you this morning.
The House Ethics Committee meets today to interview more witnesses in the Mark Foley e-mail scandal.
S. O'BRIEN: In New York, a lawyer convicted of aiding terrorists is to be sentenced today. Lynne Stewart helped her client, Sheikh Abdel Rahman, communicate with the outside world, despite a court order not to do so.
M. O'BRIEN: Let's get a check of the weather now. Chad with that.
Hello, Chad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
S. O'BRIEN: Well, control of Congress is very much up for grabs. This morning, we want to take a look at some of the specific states where it's really going to matter. In the Senate, there are seven seats that are considered toss-ups.
Take a look at our map here. We've got Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Virginia to watch there. And if you take a look, six seats -- a switch of six seats are going to give the Democrats control in the Senate.
Over in the House now, 22 races that are just too close to call. They're concentrated, as you can see from our map, in the Northeast. The three means there are three seats there. Includes Pennsylvania, New York and Connecticut. Now, the Democrats will need to pick up 15 seats in order to take control of the House.
So what exactly is the strategy now on both sides of the aisle? Joining us this morning, Ed Gillespie. He is the former chairman of the RNC. He's also the author of the book "Winning Right: Campaign Politics and Conservative Policies." And also, Democratic strategist James Carville. He's the author of "Take It Back: Our Party, Our Country, Our Future."
Gentleman, good morning. Nice to see you both. Thanks for talking with us.
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Good morning.
S. O'BRIEN: Let's break it down. The Republicans, we know, are focusing essentially on the best bets for the election. "The New York Times" today has a report on Mike DeWine's Senate race in Ohio. And basically their report says the head of the Republican -- they're cutting him off. No more money as you get into the critical, the crucial last three-week stretch.
Ed Gillespie, what do you think that signals? What message is that sending now?
ED GILLESPIE, FMR. RNC CHAIRMAN: Well, I don't know that that report is accurate. I do know that Senator DeWine has benefited from stalling support from the Republican party, and will continue to. The fact is, the Democrats would have to pretty much run the table, Soledad. They would have to pick up six out of those seven competitive seats you just mentioned, and beat -- win all the Republican ones and hold on to New Jersey. That is just not likely.
The fact is, 90 percent of gains or flip seats in the Senate come from open seats, not from defeating incumbents. I can't predict to you this morning that all those incumbents that you mentioned on the Republican side will be re-elected. But I can predict for you that all of them won't lose either. And so it's not likely that Democrats are going to be able to get the gavels in the United States Senate or in the House.
S. O'BRIEN: Some people, it seems, are predicting that Democrats are going to do very well, James. But -- and it's a very big but in this case -- $55 million advantage is what's said that the Republicans have over the Democrats. And if you look at the numbers, the Democrats are virtually outspent on every big race. It's a challenge.
CARVILLE: Well, what happens the Republicans have been slavishly loyal to big oil and big pharmaceutical companies and big tobacco. And of course they've stepped up and they have $55 million more. But I don't know how much that's going to do them. And I think Democratic fundraising is pouring in.
Democrats are going to need to compete, I think, in 50 congressional races. They may not -- I'm not suggesting that they're going to win 50 seats. But they need -- as the Republicans are contracting, they feel the Democrats need to expand these and force these Republicans to spend money in races that were previously untold.
The other thing I was glad to note is that Pennsylvania is no longer considered a possibility for the Republicans in the U.S. Senate, and I'm delighted for Bob Casey, who is going to be an outstanding United States senator from Pennsylvania.
S. O'BRIEN: Mr. Gillespie, you have a time when the president is unpopular, his approval rating is somewhere in the mid to high 30s. You've got the scandals -- the Mark Foley scandal, Bob Ney, Tom DeLay. Looks like maybe a Curt Weldon scandal is beginning to brew. How big a problem is that going to be to overcome?
GILLESPIE: Well, the fact is that when voters go in and vote on election day, Soledad, they're going to look at the choice between Republican candidate A, Democratic candidate B, and the issues that those candidates are running on.
And Republicans understand and voters understand that if Democrats take control of the House, the chairman of the tax-writing committee had said there's not a single tax cut George Bush has passed that he would extend. That means that they would double -- or the doubling of the (INAUDIBLE) tax credit would be eliminated -- would be down to $500. The marriage penalty would be reinstated.
S. O'BRIEN: But are you telling me that none of these -- I mean, it sounds like you're trying to say none of these scandals will have any kind of impact. Is that what you're saying?
GILLESPIE: No, what I'm saying is, in individual districts, there may be some impact where it's a relevant matter. But it's not going to matter -- you know, Mark Foley, a former Congressman who's rightly left the House or was going to be expelled -- when people go in New Mexico or Colorado or Connecticut or Indiana, and they choose between two candidates, they're not going to think about Mark Foley in Florida. They're going to think about the incumbent Republican I know, and that person's record, and the record of service in our congressional district. And they're going to cast a vote based on that.
That's why these generic ballots don't translate into individual districts. We are seeing, in individual districts right now for Republican candidates, that their numbers are getting better in most instances. And I think that's a reflection, as we get closer to the election, people are looking at the choice before them in the election, not all this coverage nationally of things that are going on in states that aren't really relative -- relevant to their quality of life.
S. O'BRIEN: James Carville, the Republican machine is well known -- is renowned, actually, as you well know -- to some degree, some people say if there's a problem, it might be just that, that is insurmountable, the ability to get people moving and move a bloc to vote.
CARVILLE: There's no question that the Republicans have served power very well. And there's no question power's pouring tens of millions of dollars to try to desperately retain control of the Congress for these Republicans. I think that people around the country, what's going against them, they're just sickened by the slavish devotion of the Republican party to powerful interest groups. And I think they want to change. And I think when people look at Denny Hastert and try to think change, they essentially throw up.
S. O'BRIEN: Well, but that...
CARVILLE: And I think that's what's happening.
S. O'BRIEN: You know what, that's very dramatic, but that's not exactly my question, which is, at the end of the day, isn't it, to some degree, that big machine that can get people motivated and get them out to vote, a big problem for Democrats?
CARVILLE: It is a problem. Because, as I said, they have a tremendous financial advantage that comes from the fact that they've served power so well. It is something to be concerned about. But I think that against that and the point that -- answering your question exactly, to be honest, I was saying against that is a feeling that people want a change and they don't like the way Republicans have served power, to that extent. So that's my point. Yes, it is troublesome. It's something to worry about. But I think counterbalancing that is the fact that people are looking for a change.
S. O'BRIEN: Our last ten seconds. Give me predictions, both gentlemen, please. We'll start with you, Ed.
GILLESPIE: Well, I think, Soledad, it is the six year itch, the second midterm of a two-term presidency. We'll probably give back some of the seats that we won in 2002, 2004, but not enough for Democrats to take control of either chamber of Congress.
S. O'BRIEN: Ed sounding very confident. James Carville, final word.
CARVILLE: Well, I wish the election were tomorrow. But it's not. It's going to be in three weeks. And I think we'll do just fine in three weeks in both the House and the Senate. But I think we got to stay focused and let's figure out what happens election night.
S. O'BRIEN: James Carville, Ed Gillespie. Thanks, guys, as always. GILLESPIE: Thank you.
S. O'BRIEN: Miles?
M. O'BRIEN: Thank you, Soledad.
Attorney Lynne Stewart finds out how much time in prison she'll serve today. She's convicted of helping her client, a jailed Egyptian terrorist, communicate with followers.
CNN senior correspondent Allan Chernoff joining us live from the federal courthouse in New York, where it will all play out.
Good morning, Allan.
ALLAN CHERNOFF, CNN SR. CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Miles.
This is a fascinating and very rare case. Here we have a defense attorney who said that she was just going the extra mile for her client. The client happened to be a convicted terrorist, and the message that she was illegally passing along to his followers called for jihad against the government of Egypt.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHERNOFF (voice-over): Defense attorney Lynne Stewart walked out of federal court after being convicted for supporting terrorism, vowing she would be vindicated.
LYNNE STEWART, CONVICTED ATTORNEY: I will fight on. I'm not giving up. I know I committed no crime.
CHERNOFF: That was back in February of last year, after a jury found her and two co-defendants guilty of helping her client, the radical Egyptian cleric Omar Abdel Rahman, deliver messages to terrorists around the world. That violated a strict ban on any communication between Sheikh Rahman and his followers after his conviction in 1995 for conspiracy to try to blow up buildings and tunnels in New York City.
Stewart blamed her prosecution and conviction on post-9/11 hysteria.
STEWART: I still see myself as being a symbol of what people rail against when they say that civil liberties are eroded, that we don't live in the same America we lived in even three or four years ago.
CHERNOFF: But now, Stewart admits she violated prison rules imposed on Rahman. In a letter to the judge sent just two weeks ago, Stewart says, "I permitted Sheikh Rahman to communicate publicly and these statements, if misused, may have allowed others to further their goals." But she added, these goals are not mine.
Stewart told the judge she's not traitor, but was naive and careless not to realize that in a post-9/11 world, her zealous advocacy on behalf of a convicted terrorist client could be misunderstood.
Former New York FBI director Pat D'Amuro says Stewart has only herself to blame.
PAT D'AMURO, FMR. NEW YORK FBI DIRECTOR: She violated the law, and she provided information and allowed for the transfer of information in a terrorist organization. Being an attorney, she should have realized that was wrong.
CHERNOFF: Prosecutors have asked the judge to sentence Stewart to 30 years behind bars.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHERNOFF: Stewart's sentencing was put off for the past year because she had to undergo surgery and radiation for breast cancer -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Allan Chernoff at the federal courthouse in New York. Thank you very much -- Soledad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
M. O'BRIEN: Coming up, bestselling author John Grisham joins us to talk about his new book. It's called "The Innocent Man." It's his first work of nonfiction. In this case, truth turned out to be stranger than fiction. We'll explain.
Plus, the New Orleans saints making a dream come true for a little boy with a life-threatening rare disease. We'll have a story you won't want to miss, from the Gulf Coast ahead.
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(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
S. O'BRIEN: Bestselling author John Grisham is known for his legal thrillers, from "The Firm" to "The Pelican Brief to "The Client." But for the first time in his career, he's writing nonfiction. The book is "The Innocent Man: Murder and Injustice in a Small Town," and it tells the story of Ron Williamson, a one-time aspiring baseball players who's wrongfully convicted of murder. John Grisham is with us this morning.
It's nice to see you.
JOHN GRISHAM, AUTHOR, "THE INNOCENT MAN": My pleasure.
S. O'BRIEN: Tell us a little bit more about Ron Williamson. What happens to him?
GRISHAM: Well, he gets convicted for a murder, sent to death row and is almost executed. In fact, he came within five days of being lethally injected by Oklahoma in 1994, and he was completely innocent. He was also completely insane on death row, and had been mentally ill for many years, and it's a very tragic story.
S. O'BRIEN: It's a heartbreaking story.
How did you get -- how did you become aware in his story? Were you involved in his case in any way?
GRISHAM: No. He was exonerated in 1999, and it was one of the first big, high-profile exonerations. And I missed the story. There was a lot of coverage. I saw his obituary. Ron died on December 4th of 2004 of cirrhosis of the liver. And his obituary was in "The New York Times" on December 9th. And I was flipping through the "Times," I saw the obituary, I read it, and I said, never in my most creative moment could I conjure up a story with -- like this.
S. O'BRIEN: The picture it paints of the justice system is so disheartening. It's just so unfair. It's corrupt. It's a mess. As a lawyer who -- you used to be a practicing lawyer. You never realized that?
GRISHAM: I knew there were some bad convictions, and I did a fair number of criminal cases. But I never really spent time thinking about it as an author. But the book really takes you -- every time there's an exoneration, some guy has been in prison 15, 20 -- the last one was 24 years. They walk out. They're completely innocent. So people say, well, how could this happen? And the book tells you exactly how it happened to one man, and it's a combination of bad police work, a bad prosecution, a bad defense lawyer.
S. O'BRIEN: Sloppiness, laziness, I mean, the list goes on and on and on, and it doesn't have a happy ending.
GRISHAM: Yes, and also what happened to Ron, Ron was mentally ill from the age of 25. When he died, he was diagnosed as bipolar, and severely depressed, even schizophrenia. During his trial, he was unmedicated, so in the courtroom he was at times a madman. He would scream at the witnesses who were lying. He knocked over tables, and he terrified the jury. He was easy to convict. They wanted to get the guy out of there. They had no problem giving Ron the death penalty. Get him out of town and let somebody else deal with him.
S. O'BRIEN: It's amazing we're not talking about a case from 50 or 60 years ago; this is current history.
GRISHAM: This was April of 1988. And he went off to death row, and six years later he received his 30-day notice that he was going to be executed. At the time he was completely insane and completely mentally incompetent. They put him in a holding cell, he started counting the days, and he tried to -- he was crazy.
S. O'BRIEN: It was the Innocence Project, led by Barry Scheck, and some others as well, that eventually was able to free him. When you look know, do you think that this has opened the door for you for writing about more nonfiction. I mean, as you said, you couldn't make this stuff up. Do you think you'll do more?
GRISHAM: It's going to be a long time before I do nonfiction. There's too much work. And I'm not known for hard work. I can write a novel in about six months. This thing has taken almost two years, and I really want to get back to the fiction. I've had far too much fun writing novels, and I've got a lot of them...
S. O'BRIEN: But isn't there a message that comes out of the nonfiction work that you don't get out of a novel?
GRISHAM: Well, yes and no. This book has a very serious message. But there've been novels I've written. Some of the better novels I've written resolve around issue, and those are the best books. Some are pure entertainment. And I go back and forth, depending on whatever the story is. But you can also take a good novel with a great message.
S. O'BRIEN: So it will be a while before we get the next nonfiction. This one, "The Innocent Man," is fantastic. Thanks for talking with us. We appreciate it.
GRISHAM: Thank you. Glad you enjoyed it. My pleasure.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
M. O'BRIEN: "NEWSROOM" is just minutes away. Tony Harris at the CNN Center with a look at what's ahead.
Had a nice breakfast this morning, right?
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, Miles, thank you. Celebratory breakfast, thank you, Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes, we're happy you're taking the next hour coming up.
HARRIS: Glad to have it. Still feels like a mistake to us, but we're happy to have it.
New start for "CNN NEWSROOM," 9:00 Eastern, 6:00 out west. We will keep you up to date on these stories.
Quake cleanup in Hawaii. The island is trying to reboot from power outages today. Damage on the big island called significant. Sanctions against the North Korean regime a done deal. But will China do its part? President Bush and his teams working now on enforcement.
And Mother Theodore -- an Indiana frontiers-woman (ph) now a 21st century saint.
Join Heidi Collins and me in the "NEWSROOM." We get started at the top of the hour, 9:00 a.m. Eastern, right here on CNN. It's happening.
M. O'BRIEN: The early bird catches the worm and all that stuff, Tony.
HARRIS: Happy to be there. M. O'BRIEN: So are we. Thank you very much.
HARRIS: Coming up, the New Orleans Saints do their best to live up to their nickname. We'll tell you how they made a dream come true for a little boy with a life-threatening disease.
Stay with us.
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M. O'BRIEN: Yesterday's game between the New Orleans Saints and the Philadelphia Eagles became a dream come true for a little boy. He was right in the middle of the action, as fulfillment of a child's wish.
CNN's Sean Callebs with our story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's a southern Louisiana story that has nothing to do with levees, flooding, debris, but everything to do with perseverance in the face of adversity.
Eight-year-old Cameron Steig is coping with a disease that is taking his muscle control, motor skills and will likely soon claim his life.
JULIE STEIG, CAMERON'S MOTHER: It's very difficult to be strong, but then when you look at him, he sort of guides me. You know, simple things make him excited. He only says good things, joyful things.
CALLEBS: Cameron has a rare disorder called Leigh's Disease and now can only speak in a whisper.
CAMERON STEIG: Go, Saints!
CALLEBS: Just a couple weeks ago, his doctor began laying out plans for long-term treatment to Cameron's parents.
J. STEIG: That's when I stopped her and told her, you know, Cameron is already having a hard time walking. You know, he's having a hard time swallowing and choking. And so that's when she told me, you know, don't listen to anything I've said. Really there's nothing you can do but let him live a full life while he can.
CALLEBS: He had a simple wish: to see a New Orleans Saints game. A charitable group based in New Orleans called A Child's Wish got the ball rolling. Cameron and his three siblings loaded up on Saints' gear.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's a Saints pumpkin!
C. STEIG: Wow!
CALLEBS: But a meeting with players, stars like rookie sensation Reggie Bush and quarterback Drew Brees, ignited something special.
MARION STEIG, CAMERON'S FATHER: It's been amazing. You know, and that's what he does, he brings the love out of people.
CALLEBS: Hulking players that can seemingly move mountains were moved to tears by Cameron's inner strength. So when the Saints' captains walked to mid-field for the opening coin toss, there was Cameron, his dream come true and more.
New Orleanians have been pushed beyond the limits over the past 14 months, but helping others, especially children, somehow survives. The Saints won a nail-biter against a good Philadelphia team. Saints' coach Sean Peyton said Cameron inspired the team and was awarded the game ball.
SEAN PEYTON, SAINTS COACH: I'm just glad we were able to make him smile today. I don't know how many smiles he's got left, but we made him smile today.
J. STEIG: You don't realize how much it affects him, but, you know, you look back -- for the next couple months, he'll look at these pictures and these videos and just be in awe.
CALLEBS: Cameron is showing a lot of people winning has nothing to do with numbers on a scoreboard.
Sean Callebs, CNN, New Orleans.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
M. O'BRIEN: Now, Leigh's Disease is an inherited disorder that affects the central nervous system. It usually effects infants, but in rare cases, teenagers and adults. Very rare, and there is no cure.
S. O'BRIEN: Oh, it's a sad story. But what a happy day for that little boy, huh?
M. O'BRIEN: Yes.
S. O'BRIEN: Nice that they did that. Good for them.
Happening in America this morning also, staying in Louisiana, a cruise ship leaves New Orleans. It is the first since Hurricane Katrina hit. The ship is now underway. More than 2,000 people boarded the Norwegian Sun for a Caribbean cruise. And hosting cruise ships was a growing business in New Orleans before Katrina struck.
In Florida, 31 college football players face suspensions after some I guess you could call it unsportsmanlike behaviors. Take a look -- yes, he punched the guy. That's unsportsmanslike. That's Saturday's game between Miami and Florida International that you're looking at there. Turned into a brawl right before halftime. The suspended players have to sit out their next game. School officials say more punishment could be in the works, too. By the way, Miami won 35-0. In New Mexico, a terrible ending for some folks who were taking part in the Internal Balloon Festival. One pilot suffered minor burns when his hot air balloon hit a power line. A second balloon clipped a power line and a third balloon ran into a building. A little good news, though, to tell you about, more than 200 other balloonists had a very safe final day at the festival.
In New York, rocker Patti Smith -- there she is -- sang the final note at CBGB's, a place that many people call the birthplace of punk rock. The fixture in New York's music scene is closing after 33 years. The reason why? The building's owner isn't going to renew the lease. CBGB's owner says he's going to try to move the club to Vegas. Just won't be the same in Vegas.
M. O'BRIEN: No, I don't think so.
S. O'BRIEN: Ahead at the top of the hour, Buffalo's big cleanup. The city known for snow surprised by last week's wallop. We'll take a look at the struggles to get back on their feet.
And Gerri Willis stops by with a little timely news, how to help your home stand up to an earthquake.
More AMERICAN MORNING straight ahead.
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