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INSIGHT

U.S. Strategy in Iraq

Aired October 23, 2006 - 14:00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JONATHAN MANN, CNN HOST: Step by step. The United States and Britain want Iraq to step up, but can Baghdad's beginner government keep up the pace with Iraq's daily run of car bombs, kidnappings and sectarian killings?
Hello, everyone. Welcome to INSIGHT. I'm Stephen Frazier.

The voices of discontent over the war in Iraq seem to be growing louder now in the United States and Britain as well. Top generals on both side of the Atlantic expressing concern over the future of Iraq, and polls say British and American voters are increasingly unhappy over the daily toll of troops killed and violence in Iraq.

The home front appears to be hesitating over the strategy in Iraq. The United States and Britain want Iraq to do more so they can eventually do less.

Robin Oakley with the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBIN OAKLEY, CNN EUROPEAN POLITICAL EDITOR (voice-over): This year? Next year? Sometime? Never? When will British troops be able to be withdrawn from Iraq? Echoing the debate in America, the British public would like to know. Britain's politicians would like to be able to tell them, especially now the country's most senior army officer has suggested their presence in Iraq is hindering, not helping, security.

When he's pressed, Prime Minister Tony Blair falls back on a stock reply.

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MIN.: It is our policy to come out of Iraq when the job is done. What is very dangerous is any suggestion we get out before the job is done.

OAKLEY: Mr. Blair's ministers have been suggesting that that job, preparing the Iraqi security forces to run the show themselves, could be completed in a year. Experts are more skeptical.

ROBERT LOWE, CHATHAM HOUSE: It would be very optimistic for the British to think they could withdraw troops within 12 months and leave a stable situation behind. If they do go, it may be for political reasons, not because they have accomplished their goals in Iraq.

The way the Iraqi forces are currently developing, it does not seem likely that they will be ready in 12 months.

OAKLEY: For the coalition forces in Iraq, only bad options remain. Currently they include: cut and run, virtually impossible since it might not only provoke civil war, but would break every promise made by President Bush and Prime Minister Blair; partition the country -- again, the allies have bitterly resisted subdividing Iraq into ethnic and religious groups; work with Iran and Syria to prevent infiltration and stabilize the country, very hard for the United States to contemplate; and gradual withdrawal to countries nearby, ready to return for crises, the least worst solution, but still dependent on Iraq forces being ready to take over.

That's why London and Washington are starting to pile the pressure on Iraq's government to move faster, hinting at deadlines, benchmarks and penalties. That's what brought Iraq's deputy prime minister to London Monday. First he had a progress report on his country's police and military.

BARHAM SALEH, IRAQI DEP. PRIME MIN.: They are getting better training and we are establishing more units. And we hope by the end of this year half of the Iraqi provinces will come under Iraqi command.

OAKLEY: But at the same time, there was a warning to the West not to lose its nerve.

SALEH: There is no option for the international community to cut and run. The fate of Iraq is vital to the future of the Middle East and world order.

OAKLEY (on camera): That, of course, is what Western leaders have been saying up until now. The question is, given the political pressures they now face, just how long they'll go on believing it.

Robin Oakley, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FRAZIER: Over the weekend, U.S. President George W. Bush met with several of his top generals and advisors about the strategy in Iraq. One result of that meeting is a sort of semantics debate between the White House and the media on how best to measure Iraq's progress.

"The New York Times" has reported that the United States will work on a timetable. The Bush administration prefers the word benchmark. Bottom line is, the United States wants Iraq to take on more responsibility for its own security and will implement progress checks in the near future, and will try to hold the Iraqi government to those checks.

Back in Iraq, the war reached yet another milestone. The U.S. military now says that October has been the deadliest month so far this year for U.S. troops there.

John Roberts is embedded with one until where the battle is occurring on multiple fronts.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We spent some time over the weekend with the 1st Brigade of the 4th Infantry Division. It's been a particularly tough month for them. They've lost at least 15 men, most of those to those improvised explosive devices, the roadside bombs, which continue to be the major threat to U.S. forces here.

The U.S. forces are also facing a growing problem with the sectarian violence that threatens to envelope the entire country. It started in Baghdad, but now it's spreading. The area of operations that we're in, the Camp Taji services, is about a 500-square-mile area north of Baghdad. There are towns that are predominantly Sunni, towns that are predominantly Shiite, towns that are mixed. Those towns now, can't really say that they're at war with each other, but certainly the tensions are much greater than they were before.

But there are some mixed villages now that are either empty because the militias have decided to make that their battleground, or Shiites are pushing Sunnis out, Sunnis are pushing Shiites out.

It's a particularly difficult challenge for the U.S. military to engage and dissolve as well, because this is not something that they were trained for. They were trained for frontal assault, to deal with an enemy, not to get in the middle of this sectarian violence. So what they do is they try to spend a lot of time in these towns and villages talking to the elders, talking to other people there, saying what do you need.

What we keep hearing from all of these people, the ones at least who are not trying to foment the violence, not the radical elements but the normal townsfolk, is they need more security. And the problem is that in the Sunni towns, they don't trust the Iraqi police. They don't trust the Ministry of the Interior. And the Shiites, on the other hand, think that the Sunnis are always trying to attack them.

So this is a particularly difficult challenge for the U.S. military, one that it appears the current plan may not be able to solve. Major General William Caldwell, chief spokesman for the multinational forces here, said last week that they are disappointed, dismayed with the amount of violence that continues in Baghdad, despite this clear hold and build strategy that they've been engaging in for the last couple of months, that the strategy needs review and perhaps it needs changing altogether.

A big meeting at the White House over the weekend failed to come up with any definitive plan, but people on the ground here, Iraqis, are desperate for some sort of change, and that's something that the U.S. military will urgently need to address in the weeks to come.

John Roberts, CNN, Camp Taji, with the U.S. forces.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FRAZIER: And here we take a break. When we come back, what can make a difference in Iraq?

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, U.S. PRESIDENT: You can't win a war if you have an artificial timetable for withdrawal.

FRAZIER (voice-over): A recent poll says only 37 percent of U.S. voters approve of U.S. President George W. Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, a dissatisfaction that could lead to a loss of seats in congressional elections just two weeks away.

Only time will tell how much Iraq will count at the polls, but the debate has been a bedrock of partisan politics on Capitol Hill.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There is a lot of forward thinking in the administration working with the Iraqi government as to how as a team we can turnover more quickly the full responsibility of all that goes with sovereignty.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We set out benchmarks, we tried to get them to accept benchmarks a year and a half ago, and the president called it cutting and running. Now the president is calling for benchmarks. The fact of the matter is, benchmarks have already passed.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FRAZIER: Welcome back.

Well, the White House now says the Iraqi government needs to step up its efforts. The Bush administration says it's going to closely follow progress on security issues, such as the readiness of Iraq's police and army, as well as political and economic issues, such as oil and the treatment of former Ba'ath Party members.

This weekend's top level meetings between President Bush and his generals have added new momentum to the debate over Iraq's future.

Earlier White House Counselor Dan Bartlett described the brainstorming sessions to my colleague, Miles O'Brien.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN BARTLETT, WHITE HOUSE COUNSELOR: These meetings take place constantly and what President Bush is doing is meeting with his top commanders on the ground as well as our diplomats on the ground to ensure that we are adopting the right tactics and strategies to impress upon the Iraqi government to take more control of their own country.

As the president and many of our commanders have said, we're not going to solve this problem just from a military standpoint. We must also solve it from a political standpoint. So what President Bush and our team there on the ground in Baghdad are doing is constantly finding new ways to impress upon Iraqis to take more control of their country, to make sure we have the right tactics in place to respond to the enemies own actions.

And we've seen that in Baghdad recently, as we had initial success in the Baghdad security plan, they then -- the enemy changed their tactics, and now we're having to adapt to fight back, and it's a very important fight there. And it's important that we support this Iraqi government to insure upon a victory there for them, because 12 million Iraqis stepped up and said they want to have a representative government, they want peace and stability in their country, and it's important to the security of our country for them to succeed.

And it's been a very difficult month, as the statistics you've just said, Miles, but it doesn't make it any less necessary that we prevail.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Let's talk about definitions of success.

BARTLETT: Sure.

O'BRIEN: And part of defining success is creating benchmarks, timetables, "The New York Times" reporting yesterday that the administration is putting forth timetables that the Iraqis would step forward and try to meet in order to move forward.

Are there timetables, are there benchmarks? And do you think that's appropriate?

BARTLETT: It is appropriate to have benchmarks and milestones. I think the story was a little bit overwritten by claiming that this was a new strategy. This is something that we've been working for months with the Iraqi government on, both on the security front, as I mentioned earlier, and on the political front, because it's important that the Iraqi government have very understandable goals for them to reach over the period of the coming months.

And we've been negotiating with them, to discuss what exactly those goals and milestones would look like. Where I think the story was a bit.

O'BRIEN: Can you tell us? Can you give us some specifics on it?

BARTLETT: Well, a lot of it is like, as we have described in the past, when you talk about capabilities of certain units or brigades of Iraqi police and security forces, as we've described many times, the Iraqi army is much more advanced that the Iraqi police. The police has had some problems and has been exposed to be complicit in some of the sectarian violence. Prime Minister Maliki in recent weeks has taken some steps to address that by taking units off of the streets as well as taking some top commanders out of control, command and control responsibilities. Those are the types of things we're going to want to see.

On the political front, there would be some benchmarks to say how long would it take them to resolve the oil issue, for example. How long would it take them to resolve reconciliation issues, such as de-Ba'athification. These are all very thorny issues that the Iraqi government recognizes they have to confront. The question is, how can they do it, and what type of timetable or benchmarking should we expect for them to do just that.

It's important to understand, Miles, they want to have this benchmark and milestone process just as much as we do. They want to take over as much control as they are capable of doing, as quickly as possible. And so it is in both of our interests that we set out and map out how we can achieve a mutual goal.

O'BRIEN: Are there corresponding timetables and benchmarks which would lead to a withdrawal of U.S. troops?

BARTLETT: Well, I think that's where the story, I think, could leave somebody confused as to exactly what we're doing. We will constantly assess troop strength and troop presence in Iraq and Baghdad and other aspects of the country based upon the conditions on the ground.

These benchmarks will very much influence the thinking of a commander and the thinking of an Iraqi government, but to link the two directly, I think, is where the story left a wrong impression.

The president has constantly said that it's going to be up to our commanders and our diplomats on the ground to give him the advice about what our troop strength out to be in order to prevail on this conflict, and it is important that we do it in a way that doesn't prematurely pull our troops out before we're able to succeed.

O'BRIEN: But look at the numbers, though, Dan.

BARTLETT: Sure.

O'BRIEN: Since July, the U.S. forces put a big focus on Baghdad, 13,000 troops, almost doubling the number of troops there, and what we've witnessed is a tremendous upsurge in violence.

I guess you could come to the conclusion that perhaps U.S. troops are not part of the solution but part of the problem.

Does that lead you to believe that pulling out U.S. troops sooner rather than later is a good idea?

BARTLETT: I don't think that's the case, in a sense. There's no question that it's almost a fact of nature in modern warfare that if you engage the enemy more, you're going to take more casualties. We've in fact had more U.S. forces on the ground engaging the enemy. And, therefore, unfortunately, we have taken more sacrifices.

But I think most people would argue that we are part of the solution in Iraq, not part of the problem. Although we have to understand about our long-term presence in that country, and that's something we're constantly talking to the Iraqi government about.

But the fact of the matter is that our commanders are there, on the ground, seeing the situation play out hour by hour, are constantly evaluating that very question. Where is the best and most appropriate use of U.S. forces, whether in Baghdad or outside of Baghdad. That is where we're constantly adapting.

But I must say, just because we have taken some serious sacrifices this month and that the fighting has been remarkably violent, that doesn't make it any less necessary for us to be there and to make sure that we prevail, because as we do, as some had suggested, and say let's just set a timetable and get out of there as quickly as possible, that can only embolden the enemy. It can only provide sanctuary for terrorism, and that's going to be a situation that makes our country less secure. And that's something that the president is not going to accept.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FRAZIER: White House Counselor Dan Bartlett, speaking with my colleague Miles O'Brien.

We take a break, but when we come back, what lies ahead for Iraq?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FRAZIER: Beyond a timetable, there are other ideas with varying support and popularity on how to reduce the violence in Iraq. One calls for the country to be partitioned into Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni regions. Another calls for Iran to play a role in the country's development. But what, if anything, will work?

Welcome back.

Iraq's future very much undetermined at this point. With a look at the possible outcomes for the nation, we turn now to Dr. Louay Bahry from the Middle East Institute.

Dr. Bahry, thank you for making time for us.

LOUAY BAHRY, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: Thank you, sir.

FRAZIER: First, give me a sense of urgency and whether you share it. We hear from military commanders that it's very urgent, that the coming weeks are the pivotal moment for Iraq. Is that your sense as well? Or the sense of your friends in Iraq right now?

BAHRY: Well, I think that it's always a pivotal moment.

Since last year, we have this surge of sectarianism in Iraq. It's not something new. It came with (UNINTELLIGIBLE) ministry cabinet in May 2005. Before, it was (UNINTELLIGIBLE), but since the new parliament came, the new religious parties came with their militias and so on, the prime minister (UNINTELLIGIBLE) depends on these people to stay in power and the consequence is we have more militia infiltrating in the police and security forces. And I don't think that the coming weeks will change anything. The level of violence will stay the same if there is not enough things that has to be done.

FRAZIER: Well, part of what I've been reading is that that is a structural problem now, that the parliamentary democracy sort of forced on Iraq by Britain and the United States encourages this kind of sectarianism, rather than people thinking in nationalistic terms.

BAHRY: Unfortunately, that's true. That's true. You see what happened in Palestinian. You see what happened in Algeria (UNINTELLIGIBLE) take over and stage a coup and then the country went into a civil war.

If you leave the people to go towards in a normal way or normally, they will elect in these countries, they will elect extreme Islamist or religious people. So what we need now is really to strengthen the position of the prime minister in Iraq. The prime minister is in a weak position. He doesn't have much powers. We need to strengthen the powers of the prime minister.

Two weeks ago they passed the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) provinces in the south and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) in the south and in my opinion this has weakened the southern government more, and the Kurds in the north, they took the north. The south, the religious establishment will take the south. And what is left of Iraq? Not very much for the central government to operate with.

FRAZIER: It sounds almost as though those are preconditions or unfortunate steps toward partition, where the Kurds would have their own nation and where there would be a separation of Sunni and Shia Iraqis.

BAHRY: I don't think this is the right thing to do in Iraq. Iraq needs a central government, a strong central government, a unified country with provinces allowing decentralization system. That's OK. But to be divided into three countries, they are not viable, and the economy of Iraq does not support three countries.

FRAZIER: Right.

BAHRY: The resources in Iraq, they don't support three different countries. The oil resources, they don't support three different countries in Iraq. It would be a really bad situation. And the state of solving a problem would be creating two, three or four other new problems which would take decades to resolve.

FRAZIER: Well, let's go back to a statement you made earlier. What would be your prescription, then, specifically for strengthening the prime minister, since right now his coalition, his political coalition, includes political parties or factions controlled by Muqtada al Sadr, who has been giving him a hard time, in the southern part of the country. So how can he have more power to control what appear to be troublemakers?

BAHRY: We have to go to the prime minister and ask him what does he need and talk to the prime minister and try to strengthen his powers, because unfortunately the constitution itself, it diffused the powers of the prime minister and the cabinet and it created a new different type of high level officials and high level institutions that operate with the cabinet like the national security counsel, the sovereignty counsel, this counsel, that counsel, that vice president, that vice prime minister. And there are 46 different high jobs in Iraq, 46 different functions that are attributed to people, all of them with authority. So the prime minister really is in a weak position.

We need to change a little bit the constitution and to give more authority to the prime minister.

FRAZIER: And a final question, because we're almost out of time here, Dr. Bahry, but you know, in the past couple of days insurgents have been sending videos of their sniper teams out to American news channels, almost I'm getting a sense that they think the battle for Iraq could be won in the living rooms of the United States, not on the streets of Baghdad.

Is that a development that troubles you?

BAHRY: Yes, of course it troubles me, because these people are trying to play on the nerves of the Americans, play on the nerves of the people in the world, and on the nerves of the Iraqis themselves and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and the Muslim world. And this would set a precedent for other terrorist groups to go and try to do the same thing, and this is a very bad precedent.

FRAZIER: Well, we are grateful for those insights, as gloomy as some of them are. But we're grateful, too, for your prescription for ways for Iraq to move forward.

Dr. Louay Bahry, thank you for joining us.

BAHRY: My pleasure.

FRAZIER: We're grateful to have you here today.

And with that, that is all for this edition of INSIGHT. Thank you for joining us. I'm Stephen Frazier.

END

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