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The Situation Room
Will Iraq War Sink Republican Party?; Democrats Overconfident?
Aired October 30, 2006 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: And we want to welcome you to a brand- new hour here.
To our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And standing by, Paula, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you tonight's top stories.
ZAHN: Happening right now: Just a week and a day before America votes, it's another day of deadly violence in Iraq. Is the rising toll among American troops turning voters against the president's party? Will voters vote on the war? Some answers coming up in our latest poll.
BLITZER: Just in a moment or so.
And President Bush out on the campaign trail this evening, trying to lend a helping hand -- but is he helping or hurting his fellow Republicans?
ZAHN: And, if the House of Representatives changes hands, she's in line to become the first woman speaker. But is Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi perceived as an asset in that battle or a liberal liability?
From CNN election headquarters in New York, I'm Paula Zahn.
BLITZER: And I'm Wolf Blitzer.
And you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
ZAHN: So, as we head into the final week of a brawling and increasingly no-holds-barred election campaign, both sides are certainly turning up the heat and the negativity.
BLITZER: But here's the question, Paula. How is that affecting voters all across the United States?
The latest CNN poll on voter attitudes is now out tonight.
And our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, is standing by with the details -- Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, all politics is local? Nonsense. This election is looking more and more like a national referendum.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice-over): In the closing stretch of this campaign, Democrats have a couple of things going for them. One is President Bush.
Fifty-eight percent of Americans disapprove of the president's job performance. Democrats are trying to turn that opinion into votes for Democratic candidates.
Right now, Democrats have 53 percent of the likely vote across the country. A lot of that Democratic vote is being driven by opposition to President Bush.
MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: For Democrats, it gives them an opportunity to associate that candidate with Mr. Bush and the Iraq war.
SCHNEIDER: Forty percent of Democratic voters say they are voting to express opposition to the Republican candidate. Less than half as many Republicans say their vote is driven by opposition to the Democrat.
Another factor going for Democrats, enthusiasm -- 65 percent of Democrats say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year. That number has gone up in the past month. Fifty-three percent of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic than usual. That number has not gone up.
The issue driving all that negative energy? Iraq. The war remains deeply unpopular.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Iraq will lead to victory and glory for the United States, for the Iraqis, and for the moderates around the world.
SCHNEIDER: The public is skeptical. Just over half of Americans believe the United States will never accomplish its mission in Iraq.
Sixty-two percent are ready to withdraw some or all U.S. troops from Iraq. Sixty-nine percent want to see either major changes or a complete overhaul of U.S. tactics and strategy -- something the president seems aware of.
BUSH: The events of the past month have been a serious concern to me and a serious concern to the American people.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Democrats are worried about a November surprise. A verdict and possibly a sentence in the Saddam Hussein trial could come before November 7. And we -- we don't know -- no one knows -- whether that would bring reconciliation to Iraq, or further violence and instability -- Paula.
ZAHN: And that's something I'm going to talk to you more about, if you don't mind standing by.
SCHNEIDER: OK.
ZAHN: I want to introduce the gentleman to your right, right now.
Let's bring in Marcus Mabry, chief of correspondent for "Newsweek" magazine.
Glad to have you with us as well.
Back to the numbers once again -- you talk about this potential surprise, in advance of midterm elections. I want folks to look at these numbers now of likely voters going into these midterm elections, about whether that would really help the Republicans at all, if they announce something like Saddam Hussein's sentence?
SCHNEIDER: Well, what makes Democrats nervous is, every time there's been a dramatic event -- the capture of Saddam Hussein, the elimination of Zarqawi, the purple thumbs after the election -- there's been a spike, often short-lived, for -- of support for the war in Iraq.
Well, if this verdict comes down Sunday or Monday, they're worried that there could be a spike. It may not last long, but enough to carry Republicans through the election.
ZAHN: You guys spend countless hours crunching the numbers. And the one thing we have seen surface in some of these polls, that the Republicans, in spite of the broad picture we have painted them, not doing so well in the polls, they are gaining some ground. Where?
MARCUS MABRY, CHIEF OF CORRESPONDENTS, "NEWSWEEK": Well, there's no question about it.
You know, we had a "Newsweek" poll that was conducted on Thursday and Friday, which just overlapped with the CNN poll, which was Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. And, so, you have a kind of continuum there. The important thing to remember about all these polls is, each poll is just a snapshot in one period of time.
So, we have to watch the trend lines here. And what we see in this trend line, both in the CNN poll and the "Newsweek" poll, is, the president's approval rating is at 37 percent, pretty anemic, normally speaking. But, you know, over the last four weeks of "Newsweek" polls, that has gone up, actually, five points.
And, so, the question is, is it too little too late? It probably is. So, we talk about Republicans gaining some momentum, but it's not serious momentum. And you still have a double-digit Democratic lead in that likely voter generic question.
ZAHN: Let's further dissect this by issues. And we have a long list of them we're going to share with our audience now on the screen, talking about what seems to weigh heavily on voters' minds, starting off with Iraq, terrorism, ethics in government, North Korea, economy, followed by Afghanistan, gas prices. And we go on and on and on with this.
What, Bill, is your sense, what these issues tell us about how these likely voters are going to break?
SCHNEIDER: Iraq is a Democratic issue. The war on terror is a Republican issue.
And, as you saw, those are at the top of the list right now. So, the question is, which of those issues will take priority? The president and the Republicans have won the last two elections by running on the war on terror. The Republicans call that fear- mongering or scare-mongering, but it's worked for the Republicans. And they're talking now again about the war on terror.
The problem is, they have been making the argument for some time Iraq is part of the war on terror. But, if people are disillusioned and angry about Iraq, then, that can only hurt the Republican numbers on the war on terror.
ZAHN: Now, there's another -- another interesting statistic is out, and it's an issue that's worked very well for Republicans in years past. And that's the issue of moral values.
But, in your most recent "Newsweek" poll, there's a really astonishing turn, where the parties are evenly split on that, right?
MABRY: That's exactly right.
You know, Paula, we saw a flip-flop, as it were -- that famous phrase in politics -- after the Mark Foley scandal. And the Republicans have -- traditionally, that's been one of their bedrock issues. They have had the advantage there. After the Mark Foley scandal, what we saw was the Democrats actually reversed it, and they were trusted more by American voters than the Republicans were.
Now, what we have seen subsequently, as that scandal has grown away in time, it's -- we have gone father from it in distance and in time, what we have found is that it's tied. Still, that's a dismal sense for the Republicans, to be tied on the issue of moral values and which party do you trust more, a week before an election. That hasn't happened in the last two election cycles.
ZAHN: Want to close with a story that is getting an awful lot of attention, Michael J. Fox out there campaigning for candidates who support stem cell research. Do you have any idea how those ads are cutting?
SCHNEIDER: Michael J. Fox is a very popular figure.
We did a poll and asked people, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of him? Nationwide, 75 to 14 unfavorable. That is 75 favorable. We compared Rush Limbaugh, who was critical of Michael J. Fox, though he apologized for his remarks. He's got at 26 percent favorable, 58 percent unfavorable.
And, even among Republicans, Michael Fox is more -- is better regarded than Rush Limbaugh.
ZAHN: They both hit some raw nerves out there.
Gentlemen, thanks. Look forward to staying up with you very late on the night before the election and election night. Glad to have both of you with us -- Wolf.
MABRY: Thanks.
BLITZER: Paula, thanks very much. Excellent discussion.
Is the Iraq war driving the president's party toward a midterm setback? Mr. Bush has spent the day out on the campaign trail, where he's focusing in on other issues. But is the president helping or hurting fellow Republicans?
CNN's Kathleen Koch reports from Sugar Land, Texas.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, President Bush is the campaigner in chief. And, today, some 12,000 supporters in two states turned out to see him lead the race to the finish line.
(voice-over): President Bush in overdrive, starting the final lap of the campaign with a pair of huge get-out-the-vote rallies, both stops, first in Georgia, and later in Texas, were in districts where Republicans are in tight races, and turnout will be key.
The president appealed to the base with a time-tested tool, the divisive social issue of same-sex marriage.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Just this last week in New Jersey, another activist court issued a ruling that raises doubt about the institution of marriage. We believe that marriage is a union between a man and a woman and should be defended.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
KOCH: Mr. Bush also defended his tax cut, which he insisted Democrats would eliminate if they won control of the House.
BUSH: And, therefore, if you want to keep that money in your pocket, instead of sending it to Washington, D.C., you vote for Republicans on Election Day.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALES AND FEMALES: Yes, America! No, Bush!
KOCH: Demonstrators lined up at the Georgia event, most protesting the Iraq war. Polls suggest it's the main reason Republicans and President Bush have seen their approval ratings slide. Mr. Bush is, in the latest CNN poll, down to 37 percent.
The president admitted, the fight in Iraq was tough, but he claims his critics, Democrats, don't have a plan for victory.
BUSH: The only principle about which they can agree is get out before the job is done.
KOCH: The president drew perhaps his biggest response by insisting Democrats were soft on terrorists.
BUSH: When it comes to detaining terrorists, what is the Democrats' answer?
AUDIENCE: Just say no!
BUSH: When it comes to questioning terrorists, what's the Democrats' answer?
AUDIENCE: Just say no!
BUSH: When it comes to trying the terrorists, what's the Democrats' answer?
AUDIENCE: Just say no!
BUSH: And, so, when the Democrats ask for your vote, what's your answer?
AUDIENCE: No!
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
KOCH (on camera): President Bush will be on the road, campaigning, every day but one right up until Election Day, trying to make sure those predictions that some disillusioned Republican voters will stay home don't come true -- Wolf.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Kathleen Koch, thank you.
And, remember, for the latest campaign news at any time, check out the CNN Political Ticker. Easy way to do, go to CNN.com/ticker.
Jack Cafferty, Paula, is with us once again.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Indeed, I am.
Calling for Donald Rumsfeld's head has become a parlor game in Washington, D.C. In addition to being criticized for his approach to the war in Iraq, Rumsfeld's sometimes crusty demeanor has a way of failing to endear him to his audience.
Last week, for example, when reporters assigned to cover the Pentagon had the temerity to ask Mr. Rumsfeld during a briefing about reports of timetables for the Iraqi government to get their act together, Rumsfeld bristled, told the reports to -- quote -- "back off," gathered up his papers, and walked out of the room. Charming guy. Nevertheless, President Bush thinks Rummy is just a swell fellow. And, so, apparently, does Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner. In a TV interview yesterday, he said -- quote -- "I think Donald Rumsfeld is the best thing that's happened to the Pentagon in 25 years." That's a quote.
Boehner failed to name the worst secretary of defense in the last 25 years.
Here's the question: Is Donald Rumsfeld the best thing that's happened to the Pentagon in 25 years? E-mail your thoughts to CaffertyFile@CNN.com, or go to CNN.com/CaffertyFile.
ZAHN: Oh, I have a feeling you're going to really draw out some subtlety of thought here tonight.
CAFFERTY: Perhaps.
ZAHN: He has a knack of doing that.
BLITZER: He put the word -- he put the word apparently before he mentioned John Boehner's glowing comments about Donald Rumsfeld.
CAFFERTY: I did.
BLITZER: Yes.
ZAHN: It's pretty late. I don't know.
BLITZER: He was pretty glowing. He wasn't apparently supporting Don Rum -- he was voicing his support for Donald Rumsfeld.
ZAHN: This is 15 minutes past how late he usually works.
(LAUGHTER)
CAFFERTY: I'm supposed to be off by now.
ZAHN: How would he know?
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: Get used to this, at least this week.
ZAHN: Oh, sorry, Jack.
President Bush's Iraq strategy relies on training the Iraqis to defend themselves. So, what's happened to nearly half-a-million weapons that were supposed to go to Iraq's security surfaces -- or services, that is? That's coming up next.
BLITZER: Also coming up, Paula, a Republican who may have been dreaming about the White House, but now has big problems just keeping his own Senate seat.
ZAHN: Plus: the woman who could be the next speaker of the House -- Nancy Pelosi's agenda may surprise you. We will explain.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: A grim milestone in Iraq, where the U.S. military reports, an American soldier has been shot and killed by a sniper in eastern Baghdad. It's the 101st U.S. fatality this month, making October now the fourth deadliest month for U.S. troops since the start of the war three-and-a-half years ago.
There's also a disturbing new report of thousands of weapons simply missing in Iraq.
Our Pentagon correspondent, Barbara Starr, has details.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): More than half-a-million small-arms weapons were provided to Iraqi security services, but the Pentagon's inspector general for Iraq was able to find serial numbers for only about 12,000 weapons. Some 490,000 weapons are simply unaccounted for. No one knows if they're stolen, being used by insurgents, or still in the hands of Iraqi units.
STUART BOWEN, INSPECTOR GENERAL FOR IRAQ RECONSTRUCTION: We don't make any assumptions about where these weapons are in our audit. We just identify where the material weaknesses are.
STARR: Some of those half-million weapons were provided by other countries, but the U.S. bought three-quarters of them for $133 million. And, yet, for thousands of them, no records were found at all. The inventory includes semiautomatic pistols, assault rifles, heavy machine guns, and rocket-propelled-grenade launchers, all vital to helping Iraqi forces fight against insurgents, militias, and death squads.
The report also found, in some cases, there were no spare parts, and no repair manuals to give to Iraqi security units. The inspector general promises U.S. weapons provided to Iraq will be thoroughly tracked from now on.
BOWEN: My greater concern was the lack of tracking of serial numbers. But that issue has now been addressed by the Multi-National Security Transition Command Iraq, and is being done now.
STARR: But a second report raises an even bigger question, whether Iraqi security forces will be able to stand on their own with spare parts, fuel, food, ammunition, weapons, and training.
BOWEN: Upwards of 320,000 Iraqi security forces have been trained to date. But, if they can't be supplied and sustained in operations in the field, then, we're not going to get the full value of that investment.
STARR (on camera): The inspector general report is not optimistic. It questions whether Iraqi local and national police units will be able to sustain themselves any time in the near future. Barbara Starr, CNN, the Pentagon.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: And, tonight, there are now new aftershocks after -- from Lynne Cheney's feisty stop here in THE SITUATION ROOM on Friday.
Up next: how Internet bloggers and even Rush Limbaugh are weighing in on my controversial conversation with the vice president's wife.
ZAHN: Oh, you're getting lots of attention for that interview, aren't you?
BLITZER: A little bit too much.
ZAHN: The vice president called it what, a slap-down?
BLITZER: He said something like that.
ZAHN: I wasn't sure if that meant he liked you or that was...
BLITZER: I think he thought his wife was slapping me down.
ZAHN: I get it. OK.
Also ahead: Actor Michael J. Fox touches a political nerve. See how his message on stem cells is resonating in one of the country's closest U.S. Senate races.
We will be back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: The bruising battle for a Senate seat in Virginia is turning into a battle of books. Democratic candidate Jim Webb lashed back when critics complained about some vivid sex scenes in novels he wrote. And then Webb turned the spotlight on the vice president's wife, Lynne Cheney, who wrote a novel called "Sisters."
BLITZER: And that was many, many years ago, in the early 1980s. She lashed back at Jim Webb right here in THE SITUATION ROOM on Friday.
Today, Rush Limbaugh joined the battle.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP, "THE RUSH LIMBAUGH SHOW")
RUSH LIMBAUGH, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: So, we got Lynne Cheney, who -- and I watched this on the airplane flying out to Las Vegas. Lynne Cheney laid into Wolf Blitzer on CNN Friday afternoon.
They sandbagged her. She's got a new book out. They brought her in. And Wolf Blitzer is reading off Democrat talking points, literal Democrat Party talking points.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: I just want to make it clear, we didn't sandbag Lynne Cheney at all. She knew full well we would talk about her children's book, but we would also talk about all the major political news of the day. That's always what we talk about when she comes in. She knew that.
We had reaffirmed that with her staff only a few hours before she...
ZAHN: And...
BLITZER: ... came into THE SITUATION ROOM.
ZAHN: You were not reading off Democratic talking points.
BLITZER: We were doing what journalists do. We were asking important, serious questions. And she was responding, as she did very, very well, I must say.
She's an outspoken commentator, if you will. She's a politician in her own rights. And, as you know, Paula, she used to be a co-host of CNN's "CROSSFIRE," going back into the 1990s.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: So, she -- she knows her way around the media. We did not, Rush, sandbag her at all. She knew what she was coming into THE SITUATION ROOM to do.
And, from accusations of media bias, talk of Lynne Cheney's novel, the interview with Ms. Cheney, though, is still drawing plenty of attention online.
Let's bring in our Internet reporter Jacki Schechner -- Jacki.
JACKI SCHECHNER, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: That's right -- conservative blogger Hugh Hewitt chastising Wolf for airing Jim Webb's defense, saying it's not an appropriate comparison between Jim Webb's novels and Lynne Cheney's book "Sisters."
On the left, you have Josh Marshall from Talking Points Memo saying that Lynne Cheney obviously had amnesia about the actual contents of her book.
Now, another part of the interview is drawing a lot of attention online. That would be when Mrs. Cheney asked Wolf -- quote -- "Do you want us to win?" referring to the war? A lot of conservatives saying that that is actually a very appropriate question for the media, some going so far as to call the media, some of the media, terrorist sympathizers.
Now, on the left, at America Blog, they are criticizing the question, saying, it's not the media's job to help anybody win a war.
Now, Wolf also addressed this interview in an explanation yesterday on "LATE EDITION." And that explanation is also drawing conversation. At conservative Gateway Pundit, they're saying that Wolf is on the defensive.
And, over at the liberal Think Progress, they say that Wolf's explanation is a calling-out of Lynne Cheney for sniping at his patriotism -- Wolf, Paula, back to you.
BLITZER: All right, Jacki, thanks very much.
People asked me, well, what was it like speaking with Lynne Cheney after the interview, because we had pre-taped it. And I have to say, she was very charming, very nice. We walked out together. And it was a good discussion. She -- she felt good. I felt good. And, then, she moved on.
ZAHN: Yes. It's like the perfect theater we have sometimes, when we have two senators that are going at each other on camera for three minutes. And, then, they walk away, and they're embracing each other. And they're off to dinner a half-hour later.
BLITZER: I have been covering the Cheneys for a long time, going back to when he was defense secretary at the -- at the Pentagon. Now, during the first Gulf War, I was the Pentagon correspondent. So, I have known both of them for a long time.
ZAHN: Coming up: a pair of Republican senators who are in big trouble -- our next stop is the Show Me State, where actor Michael J. Fox and a tough-talking Democratic candidate have a Republican senator running for his political life.
BLITZER: And we're also going to take our viewers to Pennsylvania, where a Republican who may have been looking ahead to 2008 finds himself running behind in 2006 -- much more of our special coverage.
We will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: To our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time.
Happening now: Senate Republicans down to the wire and in the trenches, eight days before America votes. Tonight, we're tracking endangered incumbents in some of the critical battlegrounds, Missouri and Pennsylvania.
And, in the battle for the House, are Democrats overconfident about reclaiming control? CNN political analyst James Carville standing by with his unique take on his party's prospects.
And the politics of protecting children -- the Mark Foley congressional page scandal added urgency to a campaign on cracking down on Internet sex predators.
I'm Wolf Blitzer, along with Paula Zahn, at CNN's election headquarters in New York.
And you're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Right now, the White House press secretary, Tony Snow, is headlining a reception in Saint Louis for Missouri's incumbent Republican senator Jim Talent. Big guns coming out for a tight contest in Missouri, one of the key states in the race for control of the Senate.
Our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley is on the front lines. She's joining us tonight from St. Louis with more -- Candy.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Wolf, as you know, CNN has picked nine of these Senate races which will in fact lead to who's going to run the Senate, the Republicans or the Democrats.
Now, these nine races are either too close to call, as the one in Missouri is, or interesting enough to make us think there may be a surprise. The states range from Montana to Rhode Island, Virginia, Tennessee, Ohio, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and right here in Missouri.
You noted that Tony Snow, the White House spokesman, is out here. You ain't seen nothing yet. We're expecting at some point late in the campaign to see President Bush. Laura Bush has been out here this month as well.
This gives you an idea of how much stock Republicans are putting into this race and what really is a bellwether state.
Talent's campaign seems to believe that they have a turnout machine, as one put it, on steroids. They're very confident about their turnout machine.
As you know, the big factor here has been that stem cell initiative. We saw Michael J. Fox come out in favor of the Democrat, Claire McCaskill, and as well for the stem cell research initiative that is going to be put on the ballot.
Talent is not for that initiative, has kind of skirted around it and said that he's not for it but that everyone else should make up their own mind.
The key question here tonight and I suspect through the coming days is will the stem cell initiative help or hurt Talent? Will it in fact bring out McCaskill's voters, or will it bring out those conservative Christians who might otherwise stay home? Wolf.
BLITZER: Candy Crowley on the scene for us. Candy, it's going to be a long night, I suspect, in Missouri. We'll be watching very, very closely -- Paula.
ZAHN: Thanks, Wolf.
Republican Senator Rick Santorum faces an even tougher fight in Pennsylvania, another battleground state. The big guns coming to join the fight in Pennsylvania, as Candy just mentioned, including first lady Laura Bush.
Senator Santorum is throwing punches, but he is behind on points. Bob Franken is covering the battle in Philadelphia tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. RICK SANTORUM, (R) PENNSYLVANIA: Don't let anybody tell you those polls are right. We're going to win this thing on November 7th!
BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The latest poll shows Senator Rick Santorum from just under 10 to 16 points behind. But he's the number three ranking Republican in the Senate, and important enough that the White House this weekend sent the more popular Bush to campaign for him.
LAURA BUSH, FIRST LADY: And, of course, I'm so proud to stand here with Senator Rick Santorum.
FRANKEN: Santorum presents himself as the bulwark against terrorism and hostile world leaders, the rampart protecting conservative values, combative, but bipartisan, of course.
SANTORUM: Too often this is what it seems like in Washington. But to get things done, you've got to work together.
BOB CASEY, (D-PA) SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: You're going to see a lot of wild, desperate ads from my opponent.
FRANKEN: State Treasurer Bob Casey, the Democratic challenger, wrestles with the problems of being a favorite -- keeping the enthusiasm up, particularly since he too is anti-abortion, much to the consternation of many in his party. For the most part, he's on message, though much lower key than Santorum.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What happened in Washington? Millions of jobs lost. The largest deficit ever. An arrogant government out of touch.
CASEY: Pennsylvania deserves a senator in step with Pennsylvania.
FRANKEN: And as in so many campaigns at this stage, the candidates have their themes down pat.
CASEY: I'm Bob Casey and I approved this message.
SANTORUM: I'm Rick Santorum and I approved this message.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
FRANKEN: So what can we expect, Paula, in the last week of the campaign? Obviously a no-holds-barred fight.
ZAHN: Oh, won't that be fun, Bob. Thanks. I know you'll keep us posted...
FRANKEN: Oh, yes.
ZAHN: ... on every inch of the way.
Now, if Democrats win control of the House one week from tomorrow, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi would be in line to move up to the top job, and that would be speaker of the House. And that would make her the first woman speaker ever. And some Republicans charge that she would put a liberal stamp on Congress. Our congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel has more on the woman who would be speaker.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In the home stretch before congressional midterms, Nancy Pelosi isn't wasting a single minute.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They picked up our statement on prescription drugs.
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: Hi, how are you?
KOPPEL: Busy campaigning in at least 18 states since August, a single-minded mission to put Democrats back in control of the House, and become the first woman speaker in U.S. history.
PELOSI: Maybe it takes a woman to clean house.
KOPPEL (on camera): It kind of has a sexist undertone to it.
PELOSI: It does.
KOPPEL: Is that deliberate?
PELOSI: Well, it is, because the fact is that a woman represents what's new in politics at the top of power.
KOPPEL: How is that?
PELOSI: Because it's never happened before.
KOPPEL (voice-over): Republicans have labeled her a "latte liberal from San Francisco," and in one ad after another, are using the prospect of Pelosi as speaker to try to scare voters.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Will Brad Ellsworth vote for liberal Democrat Nancy Pelosi?
KOPPEL: The 10-term California Democrat takes the criticism in stride.
PELOSI: This is not for the faint of heart. You put yourself in the arena, you go into the ring, you have to be ready to take your hits. KOPPEL: But privately, even some Democrats worry that handing the gavel to a San Francisco firebrand like Pelosi could end up painting all Democrats with the same liberal brush.
Republicans also warn a Democratic majority could mean endless and frivolous investigations of the Bush administration.
(on camera): Well, I mean, you said that you would have subpoena power.
PELOSI: Of course, we'll have subpoena power, and we'll have a constitutional responsibility to have checks and balances and oversight. That's what the Congress does.
KOPPEL (voice-over): Pelosi doesn't try to hide her disdain for President Bush and warns it won't be business as usual.
(on camera): You have yourself described President Bush as being incompetent.
PELOSI: Right.
KOPPEL: As being in denial.
PELOSI: In denial, and dangerous. The president will have to have a different attitude now that he won't have a rubber-stamp Congress.
KOPPEL (voice-over): Now 66 years old, Pelosi grew up in politics. Her father served in Congress and as mayor of Baltimore. Decades later, after she had raised five children of her own, Pelosi followed in her father's footsteps.
Almost 20 years later, she's one of her party's top fundraisers, raking in $100 million in the last four years alone.
Friends and colleagues chalk up Pelosi's success to boundless energy and a fierce discipline.
TOM DOWNEY, FORMER DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMAN: You should never mistake her politeness and fair mindedness for weakness. That's a very big mistake. She's very strong. She doesn't forget. And she's very focused.
KOPPEL: Focused like a laser right now on winning the House and the gavel.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: And with that gavel in hand, Pelosi would become the most powerful woman ever to hold elected office in U.S. history. She'd also become the second person in line to succeed the president, Paula.
ZAHN: Andrea Koppel, thanks so much.
BLITZER: After the vice president.
Let's continue our SITUATION ROOM look at the intensifying battle for next week's election. We have a very, very familiar face with us.
ZAHN: And he happens to be political contributor and Democratic strategist James Carville, who joins us now -- we think maybe -- it looks if tonight is any indication, a better mood than the last election.
All right, so in 2002, we saw you stick your head under a garbage can after the Democrats' dismal performance. I sat with you side by side in 2004 as it became clear to you John Kerry wasn't going to become president.
So what are we going to see you do next Tuesday night? Another garbage can over the head or what?
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I tell you what, I think I'm going to leave my head alone no matter what happens, but...
ZAHN: What do you think is going to happen?
CARVILLE: You know, I think -- I tell my Republican friends, you're going to get wet. I don't know if you need a raincoat or you need a bucket to clean out your basement or you need a life boat. But the Democrats will have, to varying degrees, they'll pick up seats. How many, that's the big question, and I think that's what we've got to focus on here coming down the stretch.
BLITZER: But do you think, James, it's a foregone conclusion the Democrats will be in the majority in the House of Representatives?
CARVILLE: You know, a lot of my -- my Democratic friends are all think something's going to go wrong, and people call me all the time and say, gee, you know, they are going to do something at the end. So there's a great deal -- nobody's taking anything for granted. I think, you know, people are working hard. But everybody is staying focused.
I think -- I mean, I personally think the Democrats are going to have a good night come next Tuesday.
ZAHN: Good night? That is so time for you, James Carville. Where's the bravado?
CARVILLE: You know, sometimes (inaudible) -- the bravado is I think we're going to have a really good night. I mean, but my friends are like, you know, something is going to happen to the voting machines. Or, you know, there's going to be a last minute October surprise. I guess in this instance, with an election on November 7th, it might be a November surprise that we're going to have.
ZAHN: Btu what are the Democrats doing right and what are they doing wrong right now, as far as you're concerned?
CARVILLE: First of all, they've raised a lot of money, and this is a great -- there was a fine piece that Andrea did on who I believe to be the speaker to be, Nancy Pelosi, raised $100 million. Rahm Emanuel and Chuck Schumer have just done an outstanding job at the committees, and we've fielded some good candidates, and we have not made very many mistakes in this election. I mean, this has been a uncharacteristically competently run Democratic campaign. I mean, anytime you're going to see some mistakes, but I think they've raised the money and run a doggone good race and I think it's going to show up next Tuesday.
BLITZER: And do you agree with a lot of other experts, James, that Iraq is now the single biggest issue for so many American voters going into this Election Day?
CARVILLE: Oh, yes, and the president -- the president -- remember the famous Fred Steep (ph) memo that they should put Iraq front and center. I think anytime you're at war, people are going to be concerned about it. But I think the president pushed this thing even more front and center than it had ordinarily been and the people that are voting on Iraq are overwhelmingly voting democratic, but every poll has that in common that Iraq is the biggest issue in this campaign.
ZAHN: Of course this all comes down to voter turnout in the end, and you've got to concede there's some key House races where you know the Republicans have an organizational edge. How much does that frighten you?
CARVILLE: A lot.
ZAHN: And it must make your wife very happy.
CARVILLE: It does, and that's why there's no complacency on the Democratic side. The right-wing machine is very, very good at turnout. You're going to see people like Jerry Falwell and Dobson and just like you did in the Terri Schiavo thing. They're going to be trying to crank it out and they very effective, the right-wing machines. Very effective at getting that vote out.
Rush Limbaugh is going to be trying to crank it out for them. So you're going to see all of that, and I think that's a reason that you don't see any Democratic complacency. When it comes to fighting stem cell research, they're going to be out there pounding that hard. It's going to come to making decisions like Terri Schiavo, these end-of- life that they want to be involved in, they're going to be there very hard. When it comes to outlawing abortion in all these cases, they're going to be there very hard. So I think that it's a justifiable concern that Democrats have. They've shown the ability to activate these right-wing groups. They've shown an ability to activate these people. And I don't think this time it's going to work as well, but you know, I've been proven wrong before.
ZAHN: Not very often.
BLITZER: James Carville, he's a very smart guy, Paula.
ZAHN: He is. He's also fun. CARVILLE: Hey Wolf, we're not going to talk about my children's book?
BLITZER: No, we're not talking about your children's book, but you'll be here with us on Election Day. You'll be with the best political team on television here at CNN Election Headquarters in New York.
You've got your ticket to come up here yet?
CARVILLE: Yes, sir. I'm looking forward to it. We'll have the big coverage. It's unbelievable. I went up and saw the room that we're going to have the other day. We're going to have quite a production. I'm really looking for to it.
ZAHN: Are you going to pack your Democratic talking points with you?
CARVILLE: I generally get my own talking points. I have a way of making up my own.
BLITZER: He doesn't need those. We'll have a trash bin here if you need it, James. Let's see what happens.
CARVILLE: Thank you, thank you Paula, thank you, Wolf.
ZAHN: Our pleasure.
BLITZER: He's a good guy, and at least 91 races around the country have one thing in common. Coming up, how candidates from coast to coast are trying to play on voters' fears of sexual predators on the Internet.
ZAHN: Also ahead, your thoughts on Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Is he as one congressman says, the best thing to have happened to the Pentagon in 25 years? You sound off along with Jack Cafferty.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: One of the biggest shocks of this election so far is the sex scandal involving ex-Congressman's Mark Foley's dirty e-mails to teenagers who were congressional pages. But even before that scandal broke, candidates from coast to coast were gearing up to turn the fear of sexual predators on the Internet into votes on Election Day. Ted Rowlands has a closer look now.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How many more of these criminals walk our streets now?
TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Across the country, candidates are trying to get votes by claiming that they're tough on Internet sex predators.
ED PERLMUTTER: I have three daughters, and I want to protect them.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: As attorney general, I'll create special training programs and task forces so police can find Internet predators.
DINA TITUS: And we'll track them for life. There will be no place to hide.
ROWLANDS: So far this year, more than $38 million has been spent in 91 different races on ads that deal with sex predators.
UNIDENTIFIED ,ALE: Now, it's your turn to help protect our children. Vote Juan Vargas, Democrat for Congress.
ROWLANDS: It doesn't always work. This man lost his primary, but experts say it's an issue that candidates from both sides love because nobody's against protecting children and the subject resonates with parents.
EVAN TRACEY, CNN POLITICAL AD CONSULTANT: Parents vote. After senior citizens, parents are the most reliable voting block. That's really the connection that candidates are going for. There's nobody out there that can say they've got a mile-long track record on this issue.
ROWLANDS: Except possibly Patty Wetterling, who's running for the open House seat in Minnesota's six district. Seventeen years ago, her son Jacob was abducted and was never found. She's been a child safety advocate ever since. While her son's disappearance was long before the Internet, Wetterling is using child safety as an issue in her campaign ads, including a controversial TV spot that aired after the Mark Foley scandal.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It shocks the conscience. Congressional leaders have admitted covering up the predatory behavior of a congressman who used the Internet to molest children.
ROWLANDS (on camera): What's striking about most of these ads is that candidates can't really attack their opponents on this issue. Still, experts say they use it because it's an excellent way to connect with voters.
TRACEY: It's absolutely fair. The goal of political advertising, of all advertising really is to make an emotional connection with the viewers. In this case, fear is the connection that candidate goes for.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: One of the most important things I do is to help our police protect our kids.
ROWLANDS: whether or not those connections turn into votes is unclear, but expect to see more ads like this up until the election.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: With the Internet, you never really know.
ROWLANDS: Ted Rowlands, CNN, Los Angeles. (END VIDEOTAPE)
ZAHN: And we're moving up on about 12 minutes before the hour and though you usually don't hang out with us during this hour, you know what's coming up.
BLITZER: I know that my good friend Larry King is coming up. He's standing by to give us a little preview of what's coming up right at the top of the hour. Hi, Larry.
ZAHN: Hi, Larry.
LARRY KING, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, guys. And I'll be seeing you both in New York as of Wednesday. I look forward to that.
We'll meet in the first segment of the show tonight, the mother and girlfriend of one of those dead firefighters that fought the arson setting tragic fires out here. And then of course major political discussions with David Gergen, James Carville, who was just with you, Laura Ingraham, and four major talk show hosts, two on the right and two on the left.
And then Wednesday night, Katie Couric will be with us in New York, by the way. And tomorrow night, we'll have Bush, Clinton, and Schwarzenegger, all of them maybe, think about it.
ZAHN: We are so jealous of your booking staff, Larry.
KING: Hey listen, they did a hell of a job.
ZAHN: They always do.
BLITZER: I'm impressed he got Katie Couric. That's going to be a great interview.
KING: Thanks guys, I'll see you in New York.
BLITZER: Looking forward to it Larry, thanks very much. Only one Larry King and thank god for that, he's a great, great guy.
ZAHN: He is. I look forward to having him here. He has his own little monitor we saved for him. Do you think there's enough for everybody in this building?
BLITZER: Yes. Yes. We got a lot of those video screens.
Up ahead, your thoughts on the Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Is he really the best thing to happen to the Pentagon in 25 years? Jack Cafferty has the best of your e-mail. That's coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: The good news, Jack is back with the "Cafferty File" -- Jack.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Wolf. The Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner said over the weekend that, quote, "Donald Rumsfeld's the best thing that's happened to the Pentagon in 25 years."
The question is, is he right? It's too easy.
Rod in Lincoln, Nebraska writes, "3,000 mothers and fathers don't think so."
John writes:
"If the health of the Pentagon is measured by the size of its budget, then Rummy is most certainly the best thing to happen to it in its history. By any other measure, however, I'd have to imagine the Pentagon was in pretty bad shape to be better off now"
Denis writes:
"If GOP leaders really think Don Rumsfeld is the greatest thing to happen to the Pentagon in 25 years, well, that about sums up why they're in the political shape they're in."
"Yes, Donald Rumsfeld," writes Carey, "is the best Defense Secretary i the last 25 years. George W. Bush is the best president in the last 25 years. Michael Brown is the best FEMA director in the last 25 years. Enron is the best stock in the last 25 years. Mark Foley is the best Congressman in the last 25 years."
No wait, that was Tom DeLay. The Republicans don't get it. Hopefully November 7th will be the best election in the last 25 years and finally they will.
Richard in Boston: "The best thing that has happened to the Pentagon in the last 25 years is Gen. Colin "The Reluctant Warrior" Powell. Let's not forget he was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs during the first Gulf War. We got the job done and got out."
How's that for leadership?
And Christine in Carol Stream, Illinois: "Sure, Jack, Rumsfeld is the best thing to happen to the Pentagon, just like e. coli is the best thing to happen to spinach farmers."
If you didn't see your e-mail here, you can go to CNN.com/CaffertyFile and read some more of this high-level prose there.
BLITZER: Do you get a ton of e-mail on a question like that?
CAFFERTY: Lots.
BLITZER: Anybody support Rumsfeld at all?
CAFFERTY: No.
BLITZER: Nobody? CAFFERTY: I don't know. I don't read them all. It's only a four-hour show. There's only so much I can do.
BLITZER: Did you try and get a little sampling, a little flavor?
CAFFERTY: I read some. I didn't see a lot of support for Mr. Rumsfeld. He's not very likable. He's kind of a crotchety and unpleasant and something I can relate to.
BLITZER: I was going to say, he speaks very highly of you, Jack. You know, he's a big fan.
CAFFERTY: I mean, that stuff last week where he was telling the press corps to back off. I mean, that's his job. You know, he's a public official. We pay his salary. He's supposed to hold briefings and tell us what's going on. So somebody asks him, he goes, "Back off" and he picks up all his stuff and walks out of the room. You know, that doesn't go a long way toward getting you nominated for Miss Congeniality.
ZAHN: So how would you have taken him on as a wrestler in college?
Wasn't he a famous wrestler?
BLITZER: He was a wrestler. He was a college wrestler.
ZAHN: Yes.
CAFFERTY: I'm not sure that's relevant.
ZAHN: You wouldn't have given in. You would have taken him to the mat.
CAFFERTY: What century was that, that he was a wrestler?
ZAHN: That was a long, long time ago.
CAFFERTY: Yes, I was going to say it was.
ZAHN: Of course, you were just in college a decade ago.
CAFFERTY: You know, I mean, the other thing is people look at this war in Iraq and the buck stops at the Pentagon. He's the guy running the war, and the war's not going well, so they're going to say it's his fault. And then when he gets a little cranky with people, then they go oh, well, he's a bad guy.
BLITZER: All right. We've got to leave it there. But you know what? We've got four hours tomorrow...
CAFFERTY: I've got to go home and get some sleep because I want to be ready. I can hardly wait.
BLITZER: You'll be ready. We got a table here, we got the whole nine yards. ZAHN: You can just imagine what kind of mood Jack's going to be in Friday night at this time. And then we get him into election week.
CAFFERTY: Friday night we get to go home at 6:00. I already checked.
ZAHN: Oh, you did?
Not us. We're going to be here.
BLITZER: We'll see.
ZAHN: And of course, our special election coverage will continue here in a few minutes with Larry King.
BLITZER: Larry will survey some of the hottest races, some of the hottest issues. Among his guests, as he just us, Laura Ingraham and our own James Carville.
We'll take a quick break. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: And that wraps it up for all of us here on this special edition of the SITUATION ROOM.
BLITZER: And we're going to be back tomorrow, Paula, another two hours 7:00 to 9:00 p.m. Eastern. We're going to have an excellent show all this week.
Pleasure working with you.
"LARRY KING LIVE" is up next.
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