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American Morning

Haggard Resigns

Aired November 03, 2006 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR, AMERICAN MORNING: Haggard has resigned. His fellow preacher says there's been an admission of guilt. How this plays into the elections and the fight for Congress -- Bob?
BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT, AMERICAN MORNING: I'm Bob Franken, in Columbus, Ohio. If you think your TIVO can block out the election campaign this weekend, forget about it.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR, AMERICAN MORNING: And the U.S. government takes down one of its websites. Did it give the world a glimpse of Iraq's secrets for building atom bombs? Those stories, and much more, on this AMERICAN MORNING.

M. O'BRIEN: Good morning. It's Friday November 3rd. From New York, I'm Miles O'Brien.

S. O'BRIEN: From Washington, D.C., I'm Soledad O'Brien. Thanks for being with us.

M. O'BRIEN: We begin in Colorado and a potential political bombshell involving a leading evangelical Christian. The Reverend Ted Haggard, at the forefront in the fight against gay marriage, stepping down as head of the National Association of Evangelicals, which represents 30 million American Christians.

A gay male escort says he had a three-year sexual affair with Haggard, who is married with five children.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE JONES, MALE ESCORT: People may look at me and what I've done as immoral, but I think I had to do the moral thing, in my mind, and that is expose someone who is preaching one thing, but doing the opposite behind everybody's backs.

TED HAGGARD, PRES., NAT'L. ASSN. OF EVANGELICALS: I've never had a gay relationship with anybody, and I'm steady with my wife. I'm faithful to my wife. And so I don't know if this is election year politics, or if this has to do with the marriage amendment, or what it is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMERICAN MORNING's Faith and Values Correspondent Delia Gallagher joining us with more on all this.

Morning, Delia. This is an influential organization. For him to step down from it, is significant. Why don't you put it into perspective for us.

DELIA GALLAGHER, CNN FAITH & VALUES CORRESPONDENT, AMERICAN MORNING: Well, not only has he stepped down from the National Association of Evangelicals, which as you say, 30 million-strong membership, but he's stepped aside temporarily from his church.

When I was speaking to some evangelicals, that was the thing that concerned them. Because this is a church -- I mean, Ted Haggard is a figure we don't hear about as much as a James Dobson or Jerry Falwell. But he is a huge figure for the evangelical community. And in part, that is because he's grown this church, out in Colorado, from scratch. He was named "Time" magazine's one of the top 25 evangelical pastors. He has huge standing within the community. And this potentially is a very big deal for evangelicals.

M. O'BRIEN: Let's listen to a little more of the back and forth on this, for just a moment.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JONES: It's been hard for me because, emotionally, I just don't want to destroy someone, but this story needs to be out because it's so wrong.

HAGGARD: We're right in the middle of an election, period. Now, I don't know that this has anything to do with that, but I must say that was the first thing that crossed my mind. I thought here we are in an election cycle, and people are pulling out the guns.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

M. O'BRIEN: Let's factor the mix of politics and religion -- they say you should not talk about that in polite company -- but here we go. This is a man at the forefront against an amendment -- or actually for an amendment -- that would ban gay marriages in Colorado. There are seven other states doing this. He says there's a political motivation behind this. What do you say?

GALLAGHER: Well, a lot of people have questioned the timing of this accusation. There are two questions on the ballot in Colorado regarding same-sex union and gay marriage. Ted Haggard has been at the forefront, speaking out, working against those. So some people in his camp are saying what about the timing of all of this?

Also, within the evangelical community, I just hear genuine concern for the fact that their pastor has been accused of this, and sort of a questioning of what's going on here, not only politically, but within their own church. Because, of course, at worse, this is hypocritical for a pastor. At best, they say, this might be just that he's being maligned.

M. O'BRIEN: Is there perhaps a crisis of confidence that could be brewing here, among evangelicals?

GALLAGHER: Again, on the leadership level, yes. I don't know whether that will transfer into votes. Because the people I have spoken to say, look, we stand against gay marriage, regardless of what our leaders are doing. But the fact that their leader may have done something like this, some of these accusations may be correct, is very, very concerning for them.

M. O'BRIEN: Delia Gallagher, who covers faith and values for us. Thank you very much.

Meanwhile Republicans facing new details of an ongoing sex scandal this morning. Elsewhere, Congressman Don Sherwood agreed to pay a half million dollars to an ex-mistress that he is accused of abusing. But there is a catch. Most of the settlement will not be paid until after the election. And if the ex-mistress talks publicly about the case, she'll be forced to give up some of the cash. Sherwood, who is married, admits the woman was his mistress, but denies the abuse charges.

S. O'BRIEN: President Bush is going all out for the final weekend of campaigning before the midterm elections on Tuesday. Trying to help his party keep the majority in Congress. White House Correspondent Elaine Quijano is in Springfield, Missouri for us this morning. She's traveling with the president.

Good morning, Elaine.

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, AMERICAN MORNING: Good morning to you, Soledad.

With polls showing republicans in danger of losing at least the House, President Bush is out trying to rally members of the party faithful.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

QUIJANO (voice over): It's his last push for the '06 campaign, and President Bush is targeting the party faithful, heading to friendly territory, places like rural Nevada and Montana with a back- to-basics GOP message.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Which party is going to keep your taxes low and keep this economy growing, and which party is going to take the necessary steps to protect you in this war on terror?

QUIJANO: In Montana where Senator Conrad Burns is facing a tough fight against Democratic challenger John Tester. The message also included a direct appeal to conservatives.

BUSH: If the people of Montana want good judges, who will not legislate from the bench, you vote for Conrad Burns for the United States Senate.

QUIJANO: From now until election day, President Bush is campaigning in states he won in 2004. Today Missouri and Iowa; Saturday, Colorado; Sunday, Nebraska and Kansas and Monday, Florida, Arkansas and Texas. Absent from his campaign itinerary, states where his approval ratings now in the 30s and the unpopularity of the Iraq war could further endanger vulnerable Republicans.

STU ROTHENBERG, THE ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT: I don't think there is a chorus out there of Republican campaigns and candidates who want the president to come in. Republican strategists have looked for places where maybe he can help, and maybe he won't work.

QUIJANO: Still the president remains optimistic.

BUSH: When you turn out to vote, we're going to hold the House and hold the Senate, and America is going to be better off for it.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUIJANO: Now, here in Missouri, Senator Jim Talent and his Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill are neck and neck in the polls. President Bush hopes to give a boost to Senator Talent's campaign. He's got an event here in Springfield, Missouri, and then later on going on to Joplin, this morning -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: (AUDIO GAP) for us this morning. Thanks, Elaine.

S. O'BRIEN: Voters unhappy with the current state of politics are defecting from both parties, apparently. It is estimated there is going to be will be 3 percent more independent voters on Tuesday than there were four years ago. American University is reporting that 17 percent of voters now say they're independent. And 37 percent say they're Democrats; 31 percent say they're Republicans, 15 percent are unclassified.

Heading into the campaign's final weekend, both sides are in a final blitz trying to get the vote out. Let's take you live to Columbus, Ohio. That's where we find Bob Franken.

Hey, Bob.

FRANKEN: Good morning, Soledad.

I hope you weren't trying to avoid the campaign this weekend. You might take small comfort in knowing that even though both parties have millions of dollars and thousands of volunteers, they do have some limitations.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANKEN (voice over): In some cases they're taking money from one pocket and putting it into others. Republicans withholding resources, for instance, from Ohio Senator Mike DeWine, who has fallen behind. By contrast, both sides are sparing no expense in Missouri's Senate race where incumbent Jim Talent is in a fight truly too close to call.

In Montana, where the GOP's Conrad Burns is in the battle for his political life, President Bush tried to help Thursday. In Virginia, where the incumbent George Allen is still neck and neck with the Democrats, in spite of one campaign blunder after another. In Tennessee, where the crucial race is sometimes clouded by the issue of the issue of race.

In the battle for the House, Democrats need 15 seats to take control, and they're spreading their wealth, and hopes, to a growing number of districts. As many as 60 now gearing up for a final push, including this one in Ohio.

(CAMPAIGN ADS)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm Deborah Pryce, and this is my message.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm Mary Jo Kilroy, that is where I stand, and why I approved this message.

FRANKEN: But this goes way beyond the TV ads. Here, there, and everywhere, the ground war is spreading.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thanks again. We appreciate your support.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This is a Democratic household.

FRANKEN: Supporters of Democratic candidates, like Mary Jo Kilroy here, are going door to door trying to keep step with the Republicans in their highly successful 72-hour program to get out the vote.

MARY JO KILROY, (D) CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: All of us together can counteract this 72-hour program the Republicans are always bragging about.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We'll need you another couple of nights.

FRANKEN: It has made a difference for GOP candidates across the country, like Deborah Pryce.

DEBORAH PRYCE, (R) CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: We have the mechanism on the ground. We have it all locked and loaded. We just need to get the people to do the job.

FRANKEN: Much of that job is done out of sight, in direct mail centers, and in phone banks. They're calling from both parties.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Can we count on you for some volunteer time to help elect Mary Jo?

FRANKEN: One of the most interesting races of all is the one taking place in the West Palm Beach, Florida District that used to be a lock for the GOP's Mark Foley, the same Mark Foley whose e-mail scandal is causing problems for Republicans everywhere. A nearly $2 million GOP cash infusion on behalf of the write-in replacement seems to have paid off, incredibly, it's now a tossup.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FRANKEN: And pity the poor person who is getting tired of all of this, because, Soledad, they can run, but you can't hide.

S. O'BRIEN: Not for a couple more days yet, at least.

FRANKEN: No.

S. O'BRIEN: Bob Franken for us this morning. Thanks, Bob.

Of course, all the day's political news is available on the cnn.com news ticker any day or night. Just go to CNN.com/ticker -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Happening this morning: A government website that reportedly shows how to build an atom bomb is now offline. The site set up by the Bush administration before the Iraq war was designed to gather evidence about the dangers posed by Saddam Hussein and to show satellite photos of Iraq's nuclear sites.

According to "The New York Times", the site also contained details of Iraq's secrets nuclear research.

The Pentagon, ready to strike North Korea's nuclear program if necessary. Unnamed defense officials telling "The Washington Times", the U.S. ready with commando raids and missile attacks on North Korean nuclear sites. The reports says plans stepped up after North Korea's nuclear tests last month.

More violence today in Gaza, an Israeli air strike on a car kills four Hamas members. Palestinian security forces say they were killed while traveling just outside the Gaza City. And in the town of Beit Anoon (ph), the roof of a mosque collapsed after intense fire from surrounding Israeli forces. Witnesses say about 60 gunmen hold up inside managed to escape.

A 24-year-old South Carolina man is charged with the murder of three people. Police say Charles Gamble stabbed his 19-year-old ex- girlfriend to death. Gable also allegedly fatally shot two men. The bodies were found in a drainage pipe near an apartment complex where the woman lived.

Three hundred letters, most never opened, wash up on an Atlantic City, New Jersey beach. Letters to God, but really letters apparently sent decades ago to a New Jersey minister who died two years ago. They were sent by people all across the country seeking spiritual guidance from the higher power. In one case they were asking for help winning the lottery. Kind of humorous. In another case, gut-wrenching letters asking for forgiveness after an abortion.

The man who says he found the collection says it's sad these letters were never read. What's he going to do? He's going to put them on eBay, hoping his financial prayers will be answered, perhaps, Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Can he do that, legally?

M. O'BRIEN: Apparently so. I guess so.

S. O'BRIEN: Someone should look into that, I think.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes.

S. O'BRIEN: Straight ahead, Miles, a sheriff who took an oath to serve and protect, is now in big trouble, accused of putting drugs and guns back on the street. We'll tell you his story.

Plus, thousands of dangerous criminals captured. Thousands more on the loose. We'll tell you about the massive operation to make our nation safer, as we continue right here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

M. O'BRIEN: E-minus four days until the election. And the political pros are doing some serious arithmetic, which seats are in play, which are safe, which are a write off? We have some graphics here to help you. And in addition, we have one of our best, CNN Chief National Correspondent John King, live from his hometown of Boston, Massachusetts this morning.

John, good to have you with us this morning.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT, AMERICAN MORNING: Good morning, Miles. I hope the graphics help.

M. O'BRIEN: Let's hope. We'll do the best we can.

Here's the Senate. This is the balance of power. First of all, I'm going to hit on what is kind of expected. Those are kind of the sure-fire seats, kind of not in play right now. The ones that are white here, are the ones that are somewhat in contention. Even that is changing even as we speak.

Let's talk about some states right now where, perhaps, Republicans write off. Pennsylvania, tell us about Pennsylvania and what the thinking is there?

KING: It is a state that the Democrats carried twice in presidential elections. Rick Santorum has been behind in the polls consistently for more than a year now. He still thinks he can pull it out at the end, but he's not getting any big Republican money at the end, because Bob Casey has been ahead by double digits for quite some time. There is an anti-Iraq war sentiment in the state. Republican members of Congress are in trouble in the Philadelphia suburbs as well. It is a Democratic state this year. The Republican Party believes Santorum will lose that seat, so that's why it is focusing most of its resources elsewhere.

M. O'BRIEN: We'll hit Casey there as a hypothetical, there. Turn that particular button to blue.

Now, let's go to Ohio, another one that's white right now. We're saying that's in play. But maybe not so much; DeWine versus Brown, what are your thoughts on that one?

KING: The most frustrating state for the Republican Party. It is a state that the Republicans have worked for 15 years. They've had a very successful state Republican Party. President Bush carried the state twice. But you have a corruption probe involving the governor, that's where Bob Ney, the congressman, had a corruption probe as well.

It is just a cesspool environment. The Republicans have been in power. Opposition to the war, again, is a factor. So you have state dynamics, the national dynamic. DeWine has inched a bit closer in the end. Although, most people say they believe that state is gone as well.

Again, Miles, another state where Republicans had a decision to make about where to send their money. The big money is not going to Ohio.

M. O'BRIEN: All right, our sage wisdom from John King turn that to a blue button. We're going to close that one down. Let's move on to Rhode Island. What are we going to see there?

KING: This is another tough state. Lincoln Chafee is a moderate Republican. He could easily be a liberal Democrat in the Democratic Caucus. But guess what? The people of Rhode Island are mad about the war, they're mad at President Bush. And President Bush isn't on the ballot. So most expect Senator Chafee will lose this race, one of the Republican moderates who might fall in this election because of anger and a conservative president.

M. O'BRIEN: All right, so we'll make that one a blue button as well, hypothetically. Which leaves us some really key states here, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.

What's the one you think is the most interesting to watch?

KING: I would watch Missouri because it is such a bellwether state. Because you have the urban areas of Kansas City and St. Louis. You have the farm country in the middle, you have the Bible Belt in the South, where you just talked to Elaine Quijano and where you will see the president campaigning.

It has a little bit of everything. You have an African-American population, you have to get out white rural voters, and you have to see whether Christian conservatives turn out in significant numbers. It is a big bellwether state. The race is dead even right now.

And it is one of the few places in the country where the president could make a difference. He is still popular among cultural, social conservatives, along the Christian Bible Belt. He went there in the last campaign and helped Senator Talent. He's trying to do it again.

M. O'BRIEN: We're going to leave that white button, because we can't say for sure. Let's go to Tennessee, quickly. What are your thoughts on that one at this point?

KING: This is a tough race. Could be history. Harold Ford wants to be the first African-American in the Senate since Reconstruction. He has to win white rural voters. Our CNN poll showed the race breaking for the Republicans. But I can tell you, even the Republicans down there in the state say they just don't know.

There is a lot of anger at the war, a lot of frustration with Washington in general. Will white rural voters go back to their old roots and be Democrats and vote for an African-American candidate? It is a big question. Most believe, in the end, Tennessee will come home and that is a Republican state.

But, Miles, this is one to watch, probably late into election night.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. Once again, we'll keep that as a white button.

So, there you have it. Look at the tally up here, 48 Republican, 46 Democrat based on what was expected, what John King said was likely for the Democrats. As you can see, the balance of power very much in play.

John King, thanks for being with us this morning.

KING: My pleasure, Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: As you well know, John is part of the best political team on television.

Stories we're following for you right now -- a massive operation to make America safer and take thousands of fugitives off the streets.

Plus, a new mission and a major comeback for Tom Cruise. The movie star's high-profile new job ahead.

(NEWSBREAK)

(BUSINESS HEADLINES)

M. O'BRIEN: Stories we're following for you this morning, charges are filed in the deadly arson fire in southern California, and the suspect could face the death penalty if convicted of setting the fire that killed five firefighters.

Plus, how much are we really paying for the war in Iraq? We're going to crunch the numbers ahead with Ali Velshi. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: Arson and murder charges filed against the man who allegedly set one of the deadliest wildfires in California's history. Five firefighters were killed, and prosecutors will decide later, whether the suspect if he is convicted, should face the death penalty.

CNN's Kareen Wynter has more for us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KAREEN WYNTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A deadly inferno known as the Esperanza Wildfire in Southern California scorched hillsides and flattened homes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It looks like it may bump the road.

WYNTER: Now, a week after the blaze started, investigators have filed charges against a suspected arsonist, 36-year-old Raymond Lee Oiler of Beaumont, California.

JEFF STONE, BD. OF SUPERVISORS, RIVERSIDE CO., CALIF.: I believe he's going to see his justice. I know that he believes that he's seen the fire of all fires, but as I said during the press conference, that he is about to see a firestorm at the conclusion of his life that he's never seen before.

WYNTER: Oiler is charged with five counts of first-degree murder, 11 counts of arson and 10 counts of using an incendiary device.

(on camera): These charges carry the possibility of life in prison without parole. The district attorney's office says it will also consider over the next 60 days whether or not to seek the death penalty.

WYNTER (voice-over): Five firefighters died from their injuries the massive wildfire that blackened more than 40,000 acres. Investigators say they saw a pattern of arson from wildfires dating back to May. They say that led them to Oiler, who's also a suspect in those cases. The district attorney called the evidence overwhelming.

ROD PACHECO, D.A. (ELECT.), RIVERSIDE CO., CALIF.: In this case, it's everywhere. So it was a question of picking up those pieces of evidence literally and figuratively, putting together, and saying, what does this show us.

WYNTER: Dozens of homes were lost in the Esperanza Wildfire. The landscape was visibly scarred. But the deepest wounds were felt in the ranks of the firefighters who lost five of their own.

NEIL JINGLE, UNDERSHERIFF, RIVERSIDE CO., CALIF.: We've taken it personal. These are our brothers and sisters in the fire service. And I told the nation one week ago today that the men and women of our department would not rest. And to their credit, they didn't.

WYNTER: And there's an all-out community effort to help displaced families rebuild their lives.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You just get to work and get through it.

WYNTER: And homes. From the ground up.

Kareen Wynter, CNN, Riverside County, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

S. O'BRIEN: One of the firefighters who died in those wildfires, Jason McKay, is to be buried today in California. A memorial for all five firefighters killed is planned for Sunday -- Miles. M. O'BRIEN: Thank you, Soledad.

Americans head to the polls on Tuesday. And by all accounts, the war in Iraq is uppermost on our minds. But of course, it comes with a tremendous cost in lives and in national treasure.

AMERICAN MORNING's Ali Velshi has crunched the numbers for us. He's here to give us some perspective.

Hello, Ali.

ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Miles, good to see you.

Back in -- well, a few years ago when this war hadn't started yet, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was asked several times what this war was going to cost, and he cited numbers by the White House's budgetary arm. Let's hear what he had to say then.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECY.: Well, the Office of Management and Budget has come up with a number that's something under $50 billion for the cost. How much of that would be the U.S. burden and how much would be other countries is an open question.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VELSHI: Fifty billion -- they repeated that a number of times. I've taken poker chips, each one of these representing a billion dollars. So let's take a look at this. Back then Defense Secretary Rumsfeld said it was going to cost $50 billion, OK, 50 chips.

Now the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Estimates is a group that looks at these things. They've measured all the costs. This is the military cost of the war in Iraq, not Afghanistan, not the stuff going on in Afghanistan. Their number, $310 billion.

M. O'BRIEN: That's so far.

VELSHI: That's so far. That's the end of this year.

M. O'BRIEN: And that's about almost four years now.

VELSHI: Almost four years.

Now the Congressional Research Service, where Congress gets its numbers from, doesn't even think that's enough. If you take the two bills that are before Congress right now, and you that to the bunch, by the end of this year, the amount of money appropriated for the war in Iraq will be $379 billion. OK, so we know, there's not a lot of disagreement here, different groups say that it's costing about $400 billion, and the rate at which we're spending is higher than it's been at any other time in the war.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, you know, what's interesting about it, Ali, at one point, there was -- people in the administration saying the oil revenue will actually support all of this. Not so.

VELSHI: Donald Wolfowitz said that a long time ago. He said, you know, Iraq's oil revenue will not only help pay for this; it'll help pay for the reconstruction. That hasn't happened. And as a result of that, there are all sorts of other costs that are involved in this. But if you -- let's take a look at what oil was. Back in 2001, oil was about 26 bucks. Right now, we're looking at about $61 this year, average. So oil's gone up $30 a barrel. Some of that is India and China, and increased demand even here in the United States. So let's say of that 30 bucks, you say $10 was because of the war in Iraq. That $10 increase in the price of oil has cost the economy $450 billion. That's more than everyone even says -- the military actually says...

M. O'BRIEN: But in theory, if the price of oil goes up, the potential revenues for Iraq would increase as well. That hasn't bore itself out.

VELSHI: Because the oil is not flowing out of there.

M. O'BRIEN: It's not flowing, that's the key issue.

VELSHI: If that were to start happening, then we might actually see some of the revenue.

M. O'BRIEN: Interesting. Well, either way you look at it, it's certainly has been a gamble.

VELSHI: It's a lot of money.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes, a lot of money, a lot of chips. Thank you, Ali.

VELSHI: OK.

M. O'BRIEN: Appreciate it -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: All right, ahead this morning, with just four days until the midterm elections, we're going to see where both parties are now focusing their efforts, and we'll tell you about trouble at Wal- Mart. It could mean great news for holiday shoppers. Andy Serwer "Minds Your Business" straight ahead.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: The final weekend before the midterm elections. And both parties are now pouring all their energies into getting out the vote. Also got a new scandal to talk about, the resignation of that leading evangelical minister who is accused of having a gay affair. Let's talk about all of it with Ed Gillespie. He's the former chairman of the Republican National Committee. Donna Brazile is a Democratic strategist and CNN political analyst.

Nice to see you both.

DONNA BRAZILE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Thank you.

ED GILLESPIE, RNC CHAIRMAN: Thank you.

S. O'BRIEN: Let's begin with the Ted Haggard scandal, because that's really what everybody is talking about today. Out as a pastor of his church, temporarily at least, also out as the head of the 30 million-member national Association of Evangelicals. He's close to the White House, close to other powerful Republicans. What do you think, Ed, is realistically the impact of this scandal, whether it pans out to be true or false?

GILLESPIE: Right, and that's an important point, obviously, because he denies that it's true, and that will come out, I'm sure, over time. In the meantime, this is not the kind of thing that's going to effect whether or not someone who is an evangelical Christian goes out and votes. On Tuesday, they're focused on issues that are important to the country and the they're going to make their decisions based on those decisions.

And I think the notion that evangelical Christians are going to allow the House of Representatives to be run by Nancy Pelosi, a liberal from San Francisco, because they're upset about something that happened in Colorado is naive. I don't think that's going to be the case.

S. O'BRIEN: But isn't there a sense that it sort of doesn't make people, maybe evangelical Christians, run out to vote?

GILLESPIE: It's less that people are going to vote for Nancy Pelosi or anything, but it sort of -- accusations like this are disconcerting to people. Anytime someone in a leadership position is accused of being hypocritical, it causes people to stop and wonder, but I think they're going to focus on that individual and that organization, not on the fact that they should allow for someone who, for example, on same-sex marriage, which he's been a vocal opponent of, to allow for someone who believes in that or believes in partial- birth abortion to have -- to be allowed to set the agenda in the House of Representatives. I think they'll base their voting decisions on a different calculation here.

S. O'BRIEN: Do you think that's true, Donna?

BRAZILE: Well, look, the evangelical Christians have been a large part of the Republican base in both the 2002 and 2004 elections. George Bush wouldn't be president. The Republicans wouldn't have a majority had this constituency not turned out in record numbers. It may depress turnout. They've been demoralized before on many other issues. They were afraid that the Republicans were not paying attention to them on immigration, on putting forth the constitutional amendment, but clearly in Colorado, where there is a constitutional amendment, this may play a role in helping to defeat that measure out there.

S. O'BRIEN: We'll have to wait and see. So as we can kind of can see the finish line on Tuesday there, you've got in the Senate eight seats up for grabs. You've got Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island and New Jersey as well.

GILLESPIE: I would add Maryland, if I might. But go ahead.

S. O'BRIEN: You would add?

GILLESPIE: Maryland.

BRAZILE: Can we add Montana?

S. O'BRIEN: If you're going to add Maryland, you can add Montana, absolutely.

Realistically, as you get to the deadline, if you had to pick one state, where would you put your time, your energy, your resources right now? Donna, why don't you start?

BRAZILE: Well, there's no question that on the Senate side that Democrats are expanding into Arizona, but we're also spending significant money, and making sure that Jim Webb gets to the finish line in Virginia, Harold Ford in Tennessee. Again, This is another nail biter. Missouri. We're shoring up Democratic challenges, as well as Democrats candidates across the country. Democrats are confident that we will get out our vote this year.

S. O'BRIEN: Ed, where would you put your money, and your time and your effort?

GILLESPIE: I think where you're seeing it, all of those states. We don't have to choose one state.

(CROSSTALK)

S. O'BRIEN: Thank you both for not answering my one question, the one state. I appreciate that.

BRAZILE: Soledad, they've abandoned Ohio, which is really good for Democrats, because we've used the money to...

GILLESPIE: We have very viable Senate race in Ohio, as well as a governor's race and a lot of House races, so Ohio, once again, has is a battleground.

But I, you know, -- New Jersey, we put a lot of chips on the table there. Because there's an opportunity to pick up a Democratic seat. That's one state where change equals Republican. Maryland is another where we have a great opportunity with Michael Steele in Maryland. And then obviously we have to hold on in places like Missouri, and Virginia and Tennessee, and so it's going to be an exciting election night, but we're going to hold the Senate. S. O'BRIEN: So that's your prediction?

GILLESPIE: It is.

S. O'BRIEN: You think you're going to hold the Senate.

GILLESPIE: Oh yes, I do.

S. O'BRIEN: No question about it?

GILLESPIE: No question about it.

S. O'BRIEN: Donna, do you have an equally confident prediction on the other side?

BRAZILE: I believe we will take back the House, and I think we're going to come very close at taking back the Senate, given all of the races that we see today. Democrats are surging; Republicans are not. Also I think Democrats will pick up a significant number of gubernatorial seats as well.

S. O'BRIEN: It's kind of like a nail-biter of a weekend, huh? I actually feel sorry for you guys.

GILLESPIE: If you have any left, it's a nail-biter of a weekend.

S. O'BRIEN: Former chairman of the Republican National Committee, Ed Gillespie joining us, and also Democratic strategist Donna Brazile.

Nice to see you guys. Thanks -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Thank you, Soledad.

Stories we're following for you right now, the fight for Iraq. The U.S. death toll climbs again. Four soldiers and a Marine die in separate attacks.

Plus, charges are filed in that deadly arson fire in Southern California. Will prosecutors seek the death penalty? That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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S. O'BRIEN: And Stories we're following for you this morning, top evangelical leaders under fire amid some shocking allegations by a former male escort.

And the midterm elections four days and counting. Which races could tip the balance of power in Congress? We'll show you, straight ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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