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The Bush Factor; Ohio Battleground; Virginia Senate

Aired November 06, 2006 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: And hello again, everyone.
I'm Tony Harris.

Control of Congress up for grabs. Are American voters ready for a change in the balance of power?

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Heidi Collins, everybody.

We're going to be looking at the key races for House and Senate seats. Who's up, who's down? And what are they doing this final day of the 2006 campaign?

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Don Lemon.

What is driving the voters? Is it President Bush? Is it the war in Iraq? What about the economy?

We'll examine the issues most likely to swing the outcome.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Fredricka Whitfield.

A new CNN poll is out today. We'll show you what it says about the mood of the country just one day before the election.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN's live coverage of "America Votes".

HARRIS: As the country gets ready to vote, special election coverage from the NEWSROOM today.

At stake in the midterms tomorrow, a powerful piece of turf called Capitol Hill, and a possible change of course. Polls show Democrats poised for gains in the House and the Senate, both currently held by the GOP.

The Republicans hold the House by 15 seats. Their Senate advantage is six. Control of either or both could change.

The best political team on television is out in force today. We will hear from our reporters in the key battleground states as we go.

COLLINS: And the power of the numbers, tomorrow it will be measured at the polls. Today, we're going to be giving a preview in a new CNN poll.

According to a survey from Opinion Research Corporation, Democrats are holding on to a double-digit lead over Republicans in this year's elections. Nationally, registered voters favor Democrats 54 percent to 39.

That gap even larger among likely voters. You see it there, 58 percent to 38.

Keep in mind the old refrain, though, politics is local. A national sampling does not necessarily reflect opinion in any particular congressional district.

The waning Republican support comes as President Bush's popularity takes another dip. The president's approval rating has fallen to 35 percent, 61 percent of those polled saying they disapprove of the way he is handling his job.

LEMON: Well, Heidi, low marks or not, Mr. Bush is out there battling today. He's flying from the south of Texas to a Republican rally in Pensacola, Florida. Before the day is out he'll make a campaign stop in Arkansas and he'll attend a rally in Dallas, upon his return to Texas later.

It is a crucial day for the president. To tell us what he's facing, CNN's Suzanne Malveaux is Mr. Bush's -- with Mr. Bush in Crawford, Texas.

Suzanne, where is the president this campaign -- and who appears with him has been a controversial aspect of his election up until the very end. So how is this -- how is the White House handling the fact that Mr. Bush is -- in some places may be radioactive?

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Don, really, there is no better place to look than Florida. That is where the president is going to be traveling this afternoon, to Pensacola, Florida.

This is where the president's brother, Jeb Bush, is stepping down as governor. There's a very hot race there.

The president's going to be holding a victory rally, expecting about 10,000 people or so. But the one person who is not going to be there is really the marquee candidate, the Republican candidate. That being Charles Crist.

Now, it was on Saturday evening that White House officials were told that Crist was not going to be at this rally, that he needed to be in other parts of the state to attract moderates and Independents. So, what you are seeing, that headline in the newspaper, the local newspaper, Crist refusing to appear with the president, well, Crist's campaign says that is not true, but they want to try to get those moderate voters. And they say those voters are not in Pensacola, that President Bush will do well to rally the Republican base, but that he's not going to be so helpful in those areas where, quite frankly, he is unpopular in those particular areas that Crist needs.

Another very interesting aspect of this, Don, is the fact that Crist's campaign released a statement saying that he is going to be campaigning today with Senator John McCain. He is a moderate, he is potentially a 2008 presidential hopeful, and he is considered the future of the party -- Don.

LEMON: Yes. Some folks are saying that central Florida, especially in the panhandle, it's already a Republican stronghold. They're even wondering why the president is there. Is it because maybe that's where he has support and it's safe for him to go there today, Suzanne?

MALVEAUX: Well, you know, really, it's all about the mojo and the momentum, getting to the finish line. And the best way that President Bush can get those voters out there is to appeal to the Republican base.

He is very popular in Pensacola in that district. They have got three military bases there. This is where the Republican Party and the White House feel that he can help his party as opposed to hurt -- Don.

LEMON: All right. Suzanne Malveaux in Crawford, Texas.

Thank you so much for that report.

WHITFIELD: Well, Don, now, the key Senate races. First, Ohio, one of several states where an incumbent Senate Republican appears to be in trouble.

Here's CNN's Bob Franken.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The last days reflect the styles of each Senate candidate. Democrat Sherrod Brown, the poll-leading challenger, held a loud rally in a Cleveland church, complete with the party's latest superstar, Barack Obama.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), ILLINOIS: Please give it up for the next senator.

SEN. MIKE DEWINE (R), OHIO: Good to see you.

FRANKEN: The Republican, incumbent senator Mike DeWine, was methodically trying to play catch-up, fueling up at a pancake breakfast.

DEWINE: The pancakes look good. What's going on?

FRANKEN: DeWine insists his six to eight-point deficit looks good.

DEWINE: We're closing. We're closing. The poll this morning had us six down, but we're moving in the right direction, and we are going to close it and win.

FRANKEN: The Democratic challenger describes Republicans as desperate.

REP. SHERROD BROWN (D), OHIO: They are angry, and they can't stand it, that they might lose their job, and they are saying, I want my blanky.

FRANKEN: National Republicans decided to blanket other states with money. They've cut off their spending for the Ohio Senate race, but the TV ads are still incessant from both sides.

DEWINE (voice over): I'm Mike DeWine. I approved this message to keep fighting for all our families.

BROWN: I'm Sherrod Brown. I approved this message. It's time to put the middle class first.

FRANKEN: Ohio Democrats have gotten a big boost from the state GOP's corruption problems. Convicted for receiving bribes, just resigned congressman Bob Ney is considered an embarrassment by his own party. Outgoing governor Bob Taft pleaded no contest and was fined $4,000 for failing to report gifts. Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the man who wants to be governor, is far back in the polls.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARRIS: OK. In Virginia, a bruising, and we mean bruising, race that typifies the tone of battles across the country. Republican Senator George Allen is seeking reelection, and he is facing a stiff challenge from combat veteran Jim Webb.

Everyone seems to be watching this race. But none more closely than CNN's Ed Henry. He is in Richmond.

Ed, good to see you.

ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon. Good to see you, Tony.

You know, a dramatic last-minute gambit here from the incumbent, George Allen. Tonight he has bought TV time, two minutes of TV time from television stations all across this commonwealth. He wants to directly address voters, try to save his job.

He realizes his back is against the wall. And that nasty tone, some of that battling you talked about, was on display today, when Senator Allen was at a metro stop in Vienna, in the Washington, D.C., suburbs. A lot of cheering supporters for him, but also a lot of jeering protesters, including peace mom Cindy Sheehan. She was there, as well.

Anger over the issue of Iraq. Senator Allen has been closely tied to the White House. But there's also anger because there have been charges of racism against Senator Allen. Of course, the infamous use of that word "Macaca" to describe a supporter of the Democratic candidate, Jim Webb.

And now Allen has fired back that Webb has been sexist in term of some of his writings about women. The Democrat is trying to rise above that by campaigning today in a rural area, Roanoke, Virginia, with the last two Democratic governors of this commonwealth, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. He's trying to tout his centrist credentials. He, of course -- Jim Webb is a former Republican. He was Navy secretary under President Reagan. A Vietnam vet who wears combat boots out here on the campaign trail, the combat boots of his son who is currently serving in Iraq.

Now, Senator Allen insists that he's really a liberal trying to disguise himself as a moderate, that Jim Webb has actually gotten support from Senator John Kerry, Senator Hillary Clinton. But what's really fascinating about this race, it's one of the nail-biters that we've seen all around the country. But what makes this one different is that this was supposed to be an easy one for Senator Allen.

His father is the late coach of the Washington Redskins. He uses a lot of football analogies. This was supposed to be an easy score for Senator Allen on the way to a presidential run in 2008.

It's been nothing like that, a lot of these miscues. And, in fact, he's going to be lucky to keep on to his seat. And that presidential run is very unlikely at this point -- Tony.

HARRIS: CNN's Ed Henry for us.

Ed, appreciate it. Thank you.

COLLINS: So, it is coming down to the wire. Let's go ahead and get the lowdown now on the midterms from the Republican perspective.

Joining us now from Washington, Ken Mehlman. He is the chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Thanks for being with us, Ken.

KEN MEHLMAN, RNC CHAIRMAN: Great to be with you.

COLLINS: Quickly, I want to ask you, how confident are you when we're talking about tomorrow?

MEHLMAN: Well, we understand that obviously any time you're in the sixth year of the president's term, you're in a tough environment. But here's what's interesting. There have been four national polls that have come out over the weekend and this morning, all of which show significant Republican momentum.

The most recent one was put out by Mr. Carville -- James Carville. As you know, former adviser to President Clinton. Democracy Corps put it out, and it showed a big improvement on how Republicans were doing.

So we think that Americans are focused on the choice that will be before them tomorrow. And as Americans over the past week have considered things like Iran testing long-range missiles, as they've considered Senator Kerry's comments last week, as they've considered the information about Iraq's scientists having the knowledge and the...

(CROSSTALK)

COLLINS: But Ken, forgive the interruption. If I could for just a minute...

MEHLMAN: Sure.

COLLINS: ... we've done a poll of polls here as well. And a little bit earlier in the program we talked with conservative radio talk show host and CNN analyst Bill Bennett, and we also spoke with Donna Brazile, who I'm sure you're familiar with from the Democratic side.

Take a look at this now. As we look at the poll of polls, an average that all of them that have been done, we've got 41 percent voting Republican, 53 percent voting Democratic.

Your thoughts on that?

MEHLMAN: Yes. Again, I look at the four most recent polls that have been done, and they all four indicate that the generic ballot has been cut in half.

I also look at the fact that there's a huge amount of grassroots activity on the ground. I spent the last week traveling to eight states. In Montana, on Saturday, there was so much grassroots energy for Conrad Burns that we saw actually one in 10 voters were contacted by a Conrad Burns volunteer in one day. One in 10 voters all across the state.

I look at the fact that the early and absentee votes are coming in. I look at the fact in Florida, I look at the fact in Arizona, I look at the fact that in both states, Maryland, Republicans are exceeding where they are in terms of voting registration with absentee ballots turning in.

I look at New Mexico, one -- Heather Wilson's district -- one of the most competitive. More people were Republicans, have voted absentee there than voted in the entire 2004 presidential campaign. So I think...

COLLINS: All right. So overall...

MEHLMAN: ... there's some momentum for Republicans.

COLLINS: ... your predictions for tomorrow, House and Senate, are what?

MEHLMAN: My prediction is we will maintain our majorities in the House and Senate. I think we have -- obviously we have always recognized the steep hill to climb because it's the sixth year of the president's term. At the same time, I think there's momentum.

Americans are focusing. They don't want their taxes to go up, which Democrats have said that they'll do. And in a war with all these dangers I was describing, they don't want to see America embrace a policy that would surrender tools we need to win the war on terror. They don't want to give up the Patriot Act or the surveillance program, and they certainly don't want, as North Korea and Iran are testing long-range missiles, a party whose leaders after 9/11 were against missile defense.

That's not where I think Americans want to go.

COLLINS: But Ken, are they focused enough to come to the polls?

MEHLMAN: Absolutely, I think they are. What those polls also showed was huge increases in Republican intensity and Republican enthusiasm. And if you look at who is voting already, absentee and earlies...

COLLINS: OK.

MEHLMAN: ... as I said, Arizona, Florida, Maryland, all three states where Republicans are doing better than they are in the overall population.

COLLINS: Well, we are watching it all very closely here, as you can imagine.

MEHLMAN: It will be fun to watch.

COLLINS: Head of the RNC, Ken Mehlman.

Thank you for that.

I want to remind everybody, of course later we're going to be talking live with Ken Mehlman's counterpart, Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean. That's in about 20 minutes, so stick around for that here in the NEWSROOM.

WHITFIELD: Well, Heidi, just a bit earlier, our Bob Franken profiled the candidates in one hotly-contested Senate race in Ohio. He joins us now live.

And so, Bob, there are a number of polls who are -- that are showing a tightening of the race. How is that modifying or reshaping behavior of the candidates today?

FRANKEN: Well, it depends on which minute you're talking about. They are really fluctuating a lot here.

There was one, the CNN Opinion Research poll, showed that it was an 8 to 9 percent spread with Senator Mike DeWine, the incumbent in a deficit from his challenger, Sherrod Brown. There are now a couple of brand new polls that have come out, both of them considered credible polls. They show double-digits.

That seems to be the bragging rights magic line. One, 11.5 percent favoring Sherrod Brown, the other one 12 percent.

So, it looks like the Republicans have an uphill battle that's gotten (AUDIO GAP). However, I should point out that the Republicans here have an almost legendary get-out-the-vote effort, and we're going to find out tomorrow if they're able to surprise people and defy the polls.

WHITFIELD: All right. Bob Franken, thanks so much for joining us from Columbus with some dicey signals there. But we're glad you are able to hang with us on that.

Thanks so much -- Don.

LEMON: Politics and polling, Fred. How much of a chance do the Democrats have to take over the House? We'll take a closer look at the new numbers out today.

HARRIS: Also, some key Senate races are up for grabs, as well. What races should you watch?

You are watching a special election edition of the NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: An update now on that huge spectacular fire in Rialto, California, which is east of Los Angeles.

T.J. Holmes is following that for us from the NEWSROOM -- T.J.

T.J. HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, just keeping an eye on this thing. Want to keep you updated.

Again, this one is getting a little scary here because it is so close to homes, literally, right across the street from where these flames are really being fanned by 30-mile-per-hour winds. There is a whole track of luxury homes near a golf course and country club, and, again, like you said, this is in Rialto, California.

But in the first hour of this fire, 25 acres burned here. And what firefighters are having to do is -- what they're doing is just pretty much setting up a defense along some other structures and around some homes that are around this fire.

Not exactly going after this fire themselves on the ground, but they're going after, just like you're seeing there in that picture, with helicopters dumping water on this thing and trying to -- and trying to get it out. But we heard from an affiliate reporter a little earlier, saying that there's actually a structure in there that they are trying to just let burn out. Something in there they are just trying to let burn.

But the point right now for them is to get around and to keep this fire from spreading to homes. Also, hearing from our affiliate there that this is kind of a flat area, and short grass, so kind of an advantage there. Not a lot of fuel for this thing, like we've seen maybe in the Esperanza Fire, which of course did so much damage that we watched in the past week or so.

But this one they are trying to actually attack from the air, and firefighters are setting up defense around this fire and other areas, trying to keep it from spreading to, again, a golf course, some luxury homes. They're trying to -- trying to make sure it doesn't get to it because literally, right across the street.

We don't have the picture for you here, but you can literally see right across the street from this fire there's a whole big area, neighborhood of luxury homes they definitely do not want this fire to get to. So this is just something we are keeping an eye on and we're going to continue to make sure we update you on that -- Tony.

HARRIS: OK. All right, T.J. Appreciate it. Thank you.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN's live coverage of "America Votes".

WHITFIELD: Well, you know this by now. The countdown is on. Election Day tomorrow.

So, what are people across the country thinking as we hit the home stretch?

CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, takes a fresh looks at the latest polls.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): Here's what happens when you ask people across the country how they intend to vote for Congress. Four polls, all taken in the last five days, all show Democrats ahead by an average of nine points.

The two most recent polls from ABC News and "The Washington Post", and the Pew Research Center show the race getting closer. Democrats leading by six points and four points respectively.

There is no single national race, of course. There are individual races in 435 congressional districts. Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to win a majority in the House of Representatives. What are the experts projecting?

AMY WALTER, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Right now for the House, I have the floor right now for Democratic gain somewhere in the 20 to 25 seat range. I think it could go up 30 to 35.

SCHNEIDER: Meaning, Democrats take over the House. Do other non-partisan analysts agree? They do. In every case, Democrats take over the House. And Nancy Pelosi becomes the new Speaker. What about the Senate?

WALTER: I think four or five seats, it's a very reasonable prediction. Six seats, of course, is a majority. That could still happen. But right now, we're probably looking at the lower end.

SCHNEIDER: Seven Senate seats currently held by Republicans could go Democratic. The most recent polls show the Republican candidate ahead in only one of them -- Tennessee. The Democrat is leading in Ohio and Pennsylvania. In the other four Republican seats, Missouri, Montana, Rhode Island, and Virginia, the race is very close. To take over the Senate, Democrats would have to carry all four toss-up states, plus Ohio and Pennsylvania, and not lose either of two Democratic Senate seats that may be vulnerable -- New Jersey and Maryland. Right now, Democrats are leading in both.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: And Bill Schneider is joining us now, live from New York.

And so, I wonder, Bill, another deciding factor. Might amendments or referendums just like the stem cell amendment in Missouri, how might those be influencing the voters as they chose certain candidates?

SCHNEIDER: Well, when there's any hot referendum on an issue that is very emotional, like stem cell research or abortion or same- sex marriage, when that's on the ballot it tends to bring out voters who are really interested in voting on that issue. And that then has a spillover effect, because many of them also vote in some tight races for Senate or governor.

You mentioned the stem cell vote in Missouri. That brings out voters on both sides of that very, very difficult debate. It's an amendment that would allow embryonic stem cell research. But also in Missouri, there's a measure to raise the minimum wage, as there is in Ohio. That could bring out a lot of union voters who may end up also voting Democratic.

And in two other states with tight Senate races, Virginia and Tennessee, there are measures on the ballot that would ban same-sex marriage, and that could bring out a lot of religious voters who won't to vote precisely to make a statement on that issue. That could help Republican candidates.

WHITFIELD: All right. Bill Schneider, thanks so much -- Don.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

LEMON: And one of those tight Senate races is in Montana, where incumbent Republican Conrad Burns is being seriously challenged by Democrat John Tester.

CNN's Chris Lawrence is live in Big Sky Country with the very latest on this.

Hi, Chris.

CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Don.

You know, depending on how things shake out in areas in other states such as Missouri and Virginia, the entire Senate race could boil down to right here in Montana. Now, this is a state with fewer than a million people, and that includes kids and other people who just won't vote, so it's conceivable that the control of the Senate could come down to just a few hundred thousand voters right here in Montana.

Now, this is a state that President Bush won by 20 points in 2004. It had consistently gone Republican in the past. But there he was, the president, just five days before the election, making a campaign stop here, showing just how tight this race has become.

He was here to campaign for the incumbent Republican senator, Conrad Burns. Burns has been in office now for 18 years, a high- ranking Republican. But he did accept $150,000 from convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Even though Burns did return that money after the scandal broke, it has left him vulnerable here in Montana.

His opponent is really redefining what it means to be a Democrat out here in the West. John Tester is a state lawmaker and a third generation farmer. He sports a buzz cut and proudly shows off his three missing fingers which he all lost in a meat grinder.

Now, just as Democratic attack ads paint Burns as out of touch with Montana, Republican ads are painting Tester as a high taxer. And right now, Tester does lead in the polls by a few percentage points -- Don.

LEMON: Hey, Chris, it looks like where the president has been going, at least the GOP candidate has been getting some sort of surge in the polls. Has it helped there at all that the president visited? Did it help Conrad Burns at all?

LAWRENCE: It might have helped initially, because Burns did seem to close the gap in the last polls, but the latest poll, the "USA Today"-Gallup poll, shows Tester back out ahead among registered voters, 46 to 40 percent.

LEMON: All right. Thank you very much.

Chris Lawrence reporting to us from Big Sky Country.

HARRIS: Well, there are 33 Senate seats up for grabs this midterm election. Democrats need to win six more than they have right now to take control, and there are a couple of states in particular where Democrats think the GOP is vulnerable. We'll focus on those.

Let's get John Mercurio in on this. He is senior editor of "The National Journal's Hotline".

John, good to see you.

JOHN MERCURIO, SR. EDITOR, "HOTLINE": Good to see you, Tony.

HARRIS: Hey, where do you want to start? You want to start with Missouri?

MERCURIO: Sure.

HARRIS: What are your thoughts on the Missouri race right now? How do things stack up, Talent versus McCaskill? MERCURIO: This is by far, of all the Senate races, the 10 to 12 Senate races that we're watching, this is the one that I refuse to try to call a winner in. It is a absolute tossup. Polls out over the weekend show that Claire McCaskill and Jim Talent, the Republican incumbent, were tied.

The fact that Jim Talent is in such a tough race though I think reflects the overall national -- the national wave that Democrats are enjoying. He isn't ethically challenged in any way like Conrad Burns from Montana, like Chris Lawrence was just saying. He relatively -- he reflects relatively, I think, the voting record and the sort of -- the middle, the political middle of Missouri.

So the fact that he's in a tough race I think is a sign not of his own record, but of a sort of national momentum away from his party.

HARRIS: Got you.

Let's take everyone to Tennessee now. There is the Corker and Ford race.

What are your thoughts on that race?

MERCURIO: You know, this race turned much like the Republicans wanted it to after the RNC ran an ad in which, of course -- everybody's seen this ad...

HARRIS: Oh that ad, yes.

MERCURIO: ...that Democrats accuse Republicans of sort of focusing on Harold Ford as an African-American.

Democrats cried foul, and they thought that this was going to sort of elicit or prompt some sort of backlash. But I think what it ended up doing was forcing Harold Ford to spend about a week and a half talking about his race as an African-American. And that's not something that an African-American statewide in the South wants to be doing.

I think what it ultimately did was help Bob Corker, the Republican candidate, open up a small lead. Although I'm hearing over the weekend from the Ford campaign that early voting is showing a very high African-American turnout, participation. So this could be a little bit closer than the polls are showing.

HARRIS: So why is George Allen in the race of his life in Virginia?

MERCURIO: Yes. Well, this is a very unique race. As opposed to Jim Talent, who I think is a victim of the Democratic tide, I think George Allen is sort of a victim of his own self-inflicted wounds.

I mean, you know, six months ago, eight months ago, this was a potential 2008 Republican presidential nominee, Republican presidential frontrunner. And now he's become I think something of a laughing stock in the late night talk shows.

He still could win. He's got a long history, deep roots in the state, in the state political establishment. But he's run a very, very troubled campaign. And the Democrats were able to field a relatively credible candidate, a former Republican, Reagan Republican who worked in the Reagan administration.

This is going to be an extremely close race, but polls show I think Webb might have a slight, slight edge.

HARRIS: And John, it looks like in Ohio, Senator DeWine is facing a bit of an uphill battle if he hopes to retain his seat.

MERCURIO: Right, not the victim of a national Democratic wave, but the victim of a statewide anti-Republican wave, going through the state of Ohio.

Mike DeWine has served in the Senate for two terms and has been relatively -- relatively successful in his -- in his sort of cultivating a political -- political machine in Ohio. But this is not a good year to be running as a Republican in Ohio.

We are seeing that up and down the ballot...

HARRIS: Yes.

MERCURIO: ... from governor to Senate to members of Congress also struggling. I think Mike DeWine, Republicans having sort of pulled out of Ohio a couple of weeks ago, deciding that Mike DeWine's candidacy is unlikely to win.

HARRIS: And John, before I lose you, what's the view in Pennsylvania?

MERCURIO: This is a race that Republicans, I think, gave up on several months ago. Rick Santorum running for reelection, the extremely conservative member of the Republican Senate leadership. The Democrats were able to recruit a very strong candidate and avoid any sort of primary.

Bob Casey, the son of the former governor, the late governor, Bob Casey, and he's currently the state treasurer, a relatively good candidate. But really, what I think is helping Democrats pick up this seat is their ability to sort of highlight a lot of Rick Santorum's vulnerabilities. This is an easy pickup, I think, for Democrats on Tuesday.

HARRIS: John Mercurio, he is the senior editor of the "National Journal's Hotline".

John, appreciate it. Thank you, sir.

MERCURIO: Thanks, Tony.

WHITFIELD: Let's get another check now of those fires in California. T.J. Holmes is on that. HOLMES: Yes, Fredricka, still keeping an eye on this thing. And boy, these flames keep going. We're still seeing these pictures like this.

No evacuations, however, in this area. Again, this is Rialto, California, southern California. This is about 60 miles east of Los Angeles, just to give you some perspective there.

But this is how firefighters right now, according to at least the local affiliate, are going after this thing, is from the air, not from the ground, because they are fearing that this fire could spread to homes that are nearby. Literally, we've -- we've seen the pictures, and we're hearing from the affiliates that literally this fire is across the street from homes, luxury homes at a country club and golf course there in Rialto.

HOLMES: Literally, this fire is across the street from homes, luxury homes at a country club and golf course there in Rialto. So, what they are doing is, firefighters, plenty of them responding, mutual aid really. Several different local jurisdictions have sent firefighters to this fire. But what they are doing is setting up a perimeter if you will around this fire, pretty much setting up their own firewall, if you will, to keep this thing from crossing certain areas and getting into those homes. Those are some scary pictures right there for some folks who are living right across the street. But again, they are going after it from the air like this. We heard from an affiliate that there was some kind of a structure there, that firefighters were just letting burn out and let it do its thing and just protecting the area around, but again, right now, no evacuations order. We're keeping an eye on this thing and we'll continue to update you on this one.

WHITFIELD: And now, T.J., since we're getting a clearer view, this aerial view of the other side of this fire, it does indeed look like a structure or a warehouse or storage facility of some sort that is burning. Perhaps this will help the firefighters maintain some momentum on a perimeter, controlling it so it's not like an out of control brushfire.

HOLMES: Yes, and what they were describing it as, our again our affiliate, was an abandoned business there, an abandoned pipe business is what they were saying, so, not something there, they were really trying to save or protect. Let it do its thing and they can direct their resources to another area.

WHITFIELD: Excellent. OK, we know you're on it. T.J. Holmes, thanks so much.

COLLINS: Back now to the battle for the balance of power on Capitol Hill. And Democrats think they can get it. But, if they do, what's on their agenda? Up next, we'll talk live with the Democrat's top man. Howard Dean. You're watching a special election edition of CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: A situation that is certainly on our radar, we want to keep it on yours. This is Rialto, California. And we're able to give you now a view of the ground and all of the smoke associated with this fire now in Rialto, California, which is as you know, at this point, east of Los Angeles. It's a fire that we understand, started in what's described as an abandoned pipe business. You see the activity overhead. It is a situation now that is pretty tenuous because just across the street here there was a bit of a fire-line. And then just across the street from that fire-line is the Sierra Lakes Golf Club and then several luxury homes in that community, of course, attached to that golf course, and this is also very near the 210 Freeway. So, it is a situation that we are going to keep an eye on, as you can see the view from the ground, now, and how intense the flames still are, even at this hour. We'll continue to watch it and bring you the very latest.

COLLINS: The final countdown and last minute messages. Earlier this hour, we heard from Ken Mehlman, he's the chairman of the Republican National Committee. And now, let's talk with Howard Dean, he is the Democratic National Committee chairman. Howard, thanks for being with us. Want to quickly get to voter turnout. Obviously, as always I would have to say, this is a huge issue for these midterm elections. Are you confident in what you've done to turn out your party's base?

DEAN: Yes, I think we're doing a good job this year. I think the DCCC, and the DSCC, and DNC, everybody's working hard together to try and get as many people out to vote. Look, here's the deal -- if you want to stay the course, like the president suggests and keep doing what we're doing, then you should vote for the Republicans. If you want a new direction in the country, then you ought to vote for the Democrats. You need to vote, no matter what, because there's a lot going to depend on what happens to your vote.

COLLINS: You and I have talk many times before and I always ask you the same question. What exactly will be different, certainly with respect to whether or not the Democrats may win the Senate, may win the House, may win both. What will that mean for working with a Republican president through 2008?

DEAN: Well, we will be able to moderate much of what the Republican president has done -- for example, the first thing we're going to do is raise the minimum wage. America needs a raise, and Nancy Pelosi, who would be the leader of the House, would say -- has said, we will not allow Congress to have a raise until the minimum wage goes up for Americans. That's important because this administration, the Republicans have been focused on the top 20 percent.

We'd like to focus on all Americans. Secondly, we're going to cleanup the Republican culture of corruption that's come to Washington, by passing ethics legislation. Third, we want middle class tax fairness. Middle class people have really taken it on the chin under this administration. There's been a war on the American family instituted by Republicans, not just one in Iraq, and so forth. So we want to restore the Pell grants that the president cut, we want to restore the interest rates which the president and his party raised on college students. These are basic things. We need a down payment on balancing the budget. We've seen the biggest spendthrifts in the history of America and these Republicans borrow and spend, borrow and spend. You can't do that. You have to start to balance the budget.

COLLINS: I hear you mention the war, but you're talking domestically. Surely you're not glossing over the Iraq war -- what exactly the Democrats would do on that regard.

DEAN: The president will still have two years in office, and the president will still be in charge of military and foreign policy, so we can work around the edges to try to get the president to come up with a plan other than stay the course. The kind of plan that would allow us to fight terror, but would not require for example our National Guard and Reserves to stay in New York...

COLLINS: But do the Democrats have a plan for that, specifically?

DEAN: Yes, we do. It's called phased redeployment. We believe we can bring the Guard and Reserve home in a reasonable time. That we will have to leave a strategic group of Special Ops fighters in the Middle East. Not in Iraq, but in a friendly country, so they can intervene to stop terrorism, should it occur. And that we need more of a presence in Afghanistan, where the real war on terror is going on and is being neglected by the Republicans.

COLLINS: OK, and we asked the same question of the RNC chair Ken Mehlman. Your predictions for tomorrow quickly.

DEAN: I don't have a prediction, but I think people really do want a change in America and I think they're going to vote that way and I expect that we're going to do well tomorrow

COLLINS: You don't have a prediction? You don't think the Democrats are going to win the House or the Senate.

DEAN: I don't make those kinds of predictions. I used to and I was wrong so many times that I don't make them anymore. I don't have a prediction, but I think we are -- we are going to be happy and I think Americans are going to be happy on Wednesday morning.

COLLINS: All right. The head of the DNC with us today, Howard Dean. Thanks for your time.

DEAN: Thank you.

HARRIS: And now, another Republican Senate seat that may be in trouble. In Missouri, incumbent Jim Talent is getting a run for his money from Democrat Claire McCaskill. Here's CNN's Jonathan Freed in St. Louis.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. We have a lot of different precincts we're working on today.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We'd appreciate you supporting Jim Talent.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This script is to help promote the whole Democratic team.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

JONATHAN FREED, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Missouri Senate race couldn't be closer. And in the closing days of a close election --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We'll see you soon.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. Thanks a lot.

FREED: The campaign volunteer becomes a powerful player.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK, let's go.

FREED: Jim Talent supporters know, keeping the Republican in Washington could also determine if the GOP keeps control of Congress.

(On camera): All of the experts are saying that when a race is as close as this one is, it comes down to turnout, who actually comes out and votes, which is what you guys are trying to do today, trying to get out and vote. Do you feel a sense of responsibility because of that?

EMILY LORINO, JIM TALENT VOLUNTEER: I think so, definitely. It's our responsibility as volunteers and interns -- and like, people of Missouri, to go around and make sure the voters are getting out.

FREED: Democrat Claire McCaskill's troops say they're motivated by a desire for change.

(On camera): This is not easy work. It can be long and cold.

CLARISSA GAFF, CLAIRE MCCASKILL VOLUNTEER: Obviously, we want Claire McCaskill to win. And there are so many issues where the Democrats are stronger than the Republicans right now. On the Iraq war, I haven't appreciated anything the Republican Congress has done involving Iraq.

FREED: There is passion on both sides and Talent's people are eager to prove voters will come out and show support for the GOP.

LORINO: Although the polls are saying we're in a dead heat, I'm feeling a strong push for Senator Talent and hopeful for Tuesday.

FREED (on camera): Are you guys feeling like you're going to put her over the top, the campaign will succeed? GAFF: I'm feeling really good about it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think there's a really good chance that Claire will win Missouri, and I think we're part of that.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HARRIS: Jonathan Freed joins us from St. Louis and Jonathan, to what extent is the president's sagging approval impacting this race in Missouri?

FREED: In a big way because the Democrat Claire McCaskill has been trying to turn this race in part to a referendum on the Bush presidency. When Jim Talent was first elected in 2002, the president's approval ratings were very high. That is not the case today. And McCaskill is really trying to distance herself from the Republicans and from what Talent has been doing. He's voted overwhelming with the administration, during his four years in Washington. And she is saying: vote for me, I'm not going to do that.

HARRIS: OK. Jonathan Freed for us in St. Louis, Missouri. Jonathan, appreciate it, thank you.

We've been scrutinizing the Senate races, but what about the House? We will talk about the balance of power there, and which races to watch, when this special election edition of CNN NEWSROOM returns.

HOLMES: We're showing you, again, keeping an eye on this fire in Rialto, California, southern California. Some 150 firefighters now on the scene of this thing, that is now, at least according to AP, has burned some 200 acres. It started, burned about 25 acres, what we were hearing, a couple of hours ago. But has been pushed and pushed, and flamed or fueled by the winds that is pushing this thing. And the big fear by the firefighters, you see, they are putting out hot spots there apparently. Hope to get other shots, other views of this thing we were showing earlier. But, putting out spots there, but the big fear was that this fire is so close to luxury homes on a golf course that quite nearby. Again, wind has been a big issue here, and Rob Marciano's been keeping an eye on the wind telling us about that, but also telling us a little bit about the terrain here, where the fire's happening. Rob?

MARCIANO: You're right about that, T.J. The Santa Ana winds are the main culprit for this fire spreading and certainly for them having a hard time getting a handle on it. If we can switch over to the map graphics, give folks an idea, put things in perspective, geographically as to where things are. L.A., obviously right in the center of your screen. We'll zoom into southwestern San Bernardino County. There's Rialto there. The fire itself, somewhere between the 15 and the 210. The 15, if you don't know, is pretty much the rain artery that cuts through the San Bernardino and San Gabriel mountains and makes its way up through, up towards Las Vegas. As far as what happens when we have the Santa Ana winds, they cut through the valley, they cut over the mountains, and they accelerate into this area. So, its no surprise that we're seeing strong winds come down off these mountains and through these canyons fanning the flames. There is a red flag warning up, Tony, or T.J., until 2:00 p.m. tomorrow. So, it looks like conditions are getting as favorable as they once hoped.

HOLMES: And again, we are looking at these live pictures. Firefighters have been tackling this thing from the air. Alot of firefighters on the ground as well, again, like we've been saying, setting up a wall there of defense, trying to keep it from getting to some of those homes. We're keeping an eye on this thing. But stick around, we're going to have more on this here throughout the afternoon. But also, stick around, right after this break, we're going to get you back to more of our "America Votes" coverage. Stay here.

LEMON: All right, back now to "America Votes." Unlike in the Senate, every member of the House of Representatives is up for re- election. And once again the war in Iraq looms large in the political equation. John Mercurio, senior editor at the National Review joins us once again. Let's talk about the house races. Which ones should we be watching John?

JOHN MERCURIO, NATIONAL JOURNAL'S HOTLINE: There are about 40 to 50 House races that we're watching extremely closely on election night. Only about two of those are Democrats; 38 to 45 of them are Republicans.

If you can't spend the whole night watching television, look closely at what's going on in the Ohio River Valley. That's going to have competitive Republican-hold House races in Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky. If Democrats are able to pick up a significant number of those seats in polls that are closing early on election night, I think you're probably looking at a pretty sizable Democratic wave throughout the country. There are also a lot of Republican-held seats on the eastern seaboard in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, upstate New York, even New Hampshire, and down in Florida that Democrats are challenging.

LEMON: Let's talk about Florida. You know the Foley effect. Foley is still on the ballot, but not really. What kind of effect is it going to have on Joe Negron here?

MERCURIO: You know, I think Democrats were really hoping or really confident at the beginning of this process, right after the scandal broke, that they were going to be able to pick up this seat. But Joe Negron has turned out to be a relatively credible candidate. He's raised a significant amount of money in a very short time, or at least has had Republican infusion of late campaign cash. At this point, it looks like a tossup. I think he's run a relatively good campaign. Tim Mahoney, the Democratic candidate, also having made as much as he could out of this Foley scandal.

But I think Republicans in that district were able to sort of get out beyond the scandal, or at least the media coverage of the scandal, and focus on the fact that the next congressman from that district would be Joe Negron, not Mark Foley.

LEMON: All right, John, let's quickly go through these. You said from the eastern seaboard, on the East Coast. Let's talk about New York and Tom Reynolds, and also Jack Davis up there. Reynolds had to apologize for at least what he knew and what he did about the Foley case. How much of an effect is that having?

MERCURIO: Well, that had a dramatic impact on his reelection process just a couple of weeks ago. I mean, we saw a poll out right after the Mark Foley scandal broke, that showed Reynolds, who is the chairman of the House Republican Campaign Committee, trailing Jack Davis, a political unknown, by double digits.

But just over the weekend, just late last week, we saw a new poll out that showed Reynolds having closed the gap considerably. I think he was actually leading Jack Davis by a point. So this is still going to be a close race.

LEMON: We want to get all of these. Ohio -- Heath Shuler, Representative Charles Taylor. Nasty ad campaigns and nasty retorts going on there.

MERCURIO: That's actually North Carolina. This is a district that Democrats think they can win. It's a rural very Republican district. They've tried to knock off Charlie Taylor for years. Haven't been successful. Heath Shuler is the former quarterback for the Washington Redskins, and they want him to return to Washington in a very different capacity.

LEMON: All right, let's move on. We'll talk about Illinois now, because this is a very interesting race. You have Tammy Duckworth that lost both her legs in the Iraq war, an Iraq war veteran, running against Pete Roskam there. Tammy Duckworth is actually picking up steam, but Peter Roskam is actually a -- has been a Republican rising star.

MERCURIO: Well, he has. He's a state senator. He got the early endorsement from Henry Hyde. He was able to avoid any sort of primary. Tommy Duckworth had very contentious primary on the Democratic side, but she's been an extremely attractive candidate. She's drawn all sorts of national support from Democrats. You've seen John Kerry campaign for her, along with other Iraq war veterans over the past campaign cycle.

LEMON: All right, John Mercurio, thank you very much. Thank you for joining us.

MERCURIO: Thank you.

LEMON: And we're going to have more on the fire happening in California.

America Votes, back in just a minute.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: All right, we've been following this developing story. This is happening in Rialto, California here. It's a fire that is burning, apparently close to an interstate here. We've been looking at these pictures, a hazy fire here. They're concerned about this fire catching some structures, other structures on fire, and we're being told that they're building fires outside of this to sort of keep this at bay. We're going to follow this throughout the day on "CNN NEWSROOM." That is it, though, for this special election edition of "CNN NEWSROOM." Join us tomorrow at Noon Eastern for our special Election Day show.

For Tony Harris, Heidi Collins, Fredricka Whitfield, I'm Don Lemon. CNN NEWSROOM will continue after the break. We'll see you after this.

WHITFIELD: We are family.

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