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Lou Dobbs Tonight
New Opinion Polls; New Call for Resignation of Donald Rumsfeld
Aired November 06, 2006 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, HOST: Tonight, less than one day before the midterm elections, the Democrats appear to be on the brink of seizing control of the House of Representatives. The outcome for the battle for the Senate still hanging in the balance.
We'll have complete coverage.
And more than eight in 10 of us will be using e-voting machines tomorrow, but those machines pose a great threat to our election integrity. We'll have a special report tonight.
All of that, a great deal more on our upcoming election straight ahead here tonight.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT, news, debate and opinion for Monday, November 6th.
Live in New York, Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening, everybody.
A new CNN opinion poll today showing Democrats have a lead of 20 percentage points over Republicans. The poll indicates that Democrats are poised to take control of the House of Representatives for the first time in more than a decade. But other polls give the Democrats a much smaller lead.
President Bush today declared the Republican Party will win what he called a great victory tomorrow. President Bush shrugged off criticism of his conduct of the war in Iraq and new calls for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
John King is here tonight with a report on the importance of the war in Iraq and this election.
Bill Schneider has a special report on the very latest opinion polls and which party appears likely to win.
Jamie McIntyre tonight reporting from the Pentagon on a new and unexpected call for the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld.
We turn first to John King -- John.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the president on the trail today. Of course he's not on the ballot in this election, but the stakes for Mr. Bush are quite enormous. His final two years in office and the politics of issues ranging from Iraq to immigration will be shaped by these midterm elections that both the latest polls and history suggest will deliver this president a punishing message.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice over): It is above all else a referendum on him, his unpopular war, which is why to the very end the president tried to make it about something else.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I want you to remind your fellow citizens when you ask them to go vote, harsh criticism is not a plan for victory.
(APPLAUSE)
KING: Every election sends a message, and while Democrats appear poised to make gains in this one, the most painful lessons for the White House could well come from Republicans worried their party is now too defined by Iraq and Mr. Bush.
REP. CHRISTOPHER SHAYS (R), CONNECTICUT: If the president wants to build consensus, he needs to have a new secretary of defense.
KING: The president says he wants Secretary Rumsfeld to stay on, but a growing number of senior Republicans say their post-election message, no matter who wins, will be that Mr. Bush needs to listen more and that Rumsfeld needs to go if the president wants to get much done in his final two years.
SHAYS: I would say to the president, when people keep giving you bad advice, you need to get other people to give you good advice.
KING: Congressman Shays is among the Republicans on the receiving end of what historians call the six-year itch, when the president's party almost always suffers.
Forty years ago, it was Vietnam that cost President Johnson and the Democrats 47 House seats and four in the Senate. Just after Watergate in 1974, Republicans lost 49 seats in the House and four in the Senate. Since 1946, the average loss for a president's party in his sixth year is 31 House seats and six Senate seats.
BUSH: The best way for you to keep your taxes low is to vote Republican.
KING: "Lame duck" will be a term heard often after the votes are counted. Democrats are all but certain to have more influence. The next presidential campaign will heat up quickly, and many Republicans on the ballot this year want to focus less on war and more on GOP staples like low taxes and balanced budgets.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: We saw a bit of this new dynamic on the campaign trail in Florida today. Mr. Bush there presumably to campaign with the Republican candidate for governor. He decided instead to go to an event with John McCain, the Republican frontrunner for 2008.
And Lou, another dynamic that makes it so different, no matter who wins in this election, the vice president is not running for president. Many say that will make this White House even less relevant, especially if the Democrats score big gains.
DOBBS: And a lot hanging in the balance tomorrow, as you suggest.
Thank you very much.
John King.
A new CNN poll today shows the huge scale of voter anger with the Bush administration and its conduct of the war in Iraq. A poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation shows the Democrats now have a lead of 20 percentage points over the Republicans.
Bill Schneider has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tired, angry, had enough? Then it's time for a change.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice over): That's not an ad for a cruise vacation or a headache remedy. It's a Democratic campaign ad, and it captures the mood of voters this year.
Nearly three-quarters of Americans say they are angry about the way things are going in the country, which is why six polls all taken in the last week all show Democrats ahead by an average of 12 points. The CNN poll conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation shows Democrats leading by 20 points among likely voters nationwide.
Two other polls also show double-digit leads. Three polls show narrower Democratic leads.
Why the difference? Each poll has its own formula for defining who is likely to vote.
What are voters angry about? Hint: It's not the economy, stupid. Voters are about 50-50 on the economy. They're not 50-50 on the war.
More than 60 percent of Americans are anti-war. And it's shaping their vote.
REP. HEATHER WILSON (R), NEW MEXICO: Stay the course.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Voting with Bush.
WILSON: Stay the course.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right up to the mess Iraq has become today.
WILSON: We need to stay the course. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, we don't.
SCHNEIDER: Voters who favor the war in Iraq are voting over 80 percent Republican. Anti-war voters are voting over 80 percent Democratic.
Iraq trumps other issues. Take people who feel the economy is doing fine but oppose the war in Iraq. They're voting more than 3-1 Democratic.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Almost 90 percent of Democrats say they're angry, but most Republicans say they're angry, too. About what? They support the war. They think the economy is in good shape.
Do you think Republicans might be angry about broken government?
DOBBS: It could be. Despite what Lynne Cheney might suggest to the contrary.
Thank you very much.
Bill Schneider.
Seven more of our troops have been killed in Iraq. Two of them were on board an Army helicopter that crashed north of Baghdad. The military said there was no enemy gunfire in the area at the time of that crash.
Eighteen of our troops have been killed in Iraq so far this month. 2,836 of our troops have been killed in Iraq since the war began.
New demands tonight for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld over his conduct of the war in Iraq. An editorial today in four military newspapers with close links to the Army, the Navy, saying Rumsfeld has lost credibility with the uniformed leadership, the troops and the Congress.
Jamie McIntyre reports from the Pentagon.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice over): In calling for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to be replaced, the editors of the "Army Times" papers argue they are giving voice to disillusioned U.S. commanders.
ROBERT HODIERNE, SR. MANAGING EDITOR, "ARMY TIMES": If you are a serving officer, there's 200-year tradition in this country of military subordination to civil authority. And they're not going to speak out loud.
MCINTYRE: No longer are just a few retired generals speaking out from the safety of the sidelines, argues the editorial published in all four editions of the paper. But now the "Army Times" editors say they detect misgivings among active duty generals, citing, for example, this statement from top commander General John Abizaid...
GEN. JOHN ABIZAID, COMMANDER, CENTRAL COMMAND: I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I have seen it in Baghdad in particular. And that if not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could -- could move toward civil war.
MCINTYRE: "When the nation's current military leaders start to break publicly with their defense secretary, then it is clear that he is losing control," the paper's editors argue. Their conclusion, "Rumsfeld has lost credibility"... "His strategy has failed"... and he "must go."
The attack prompted a point-by-point rebuttal on the Pentagon's new "For the Record" Web page aimed at providing a rapid response to what Rumsfeld's staff sees as inaccuracies and mischaracterizations. It criticized what it called "the selective use of General Abizaid's quotes," saying it "ignored" his clear support for the mission and disputed the suggestions military commanders are disillusioned or that Rumsfeld has consistently issued "rosy" reassurances.
DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: I have never painted a rosy picture. I've been very measured in my words. And you'd have a dickens of a time trying to find instances where I've been excessively optimistic. I understand this is tough stuff.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCINTYRE: The "Army Times" newspapers are completely independent from the U.S. military. And while they're published by Gannett, the editors say the decision to call for Rumsfeld's resignation was their own. In fact, they say it was not connected to the current election cycle, but based on their conviction that the strategy in Iraq needs to be "realigned," something they believe will not happen while Rumsfeld is still at the helm -- Lou.
DOBBS: Jamie, thank you very much.
Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon.
Coming up next here, can the Democrats win both the House and the Senate? We'll have live reports from three key Senate races.
Also, voters demanding action to attack our illegal immigration and border security crisis. We'll have that special report.
Also tonight, middle class Americans demanding limits on government's power to seize your property.
That story coming up.
And high winds tonight fanning a dangerous wildfire near Los Angeles. We'll have the latest for you.
All of that and more straight ahead. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, job security and national security are two critical issues that voters will be deciding tomorrow. Democrats are promising tough action on so-called free trade and protecting American jobs, and voters are demanding tough action on border security and illegal immigration.
Lisa Sylvester, in Washington tonight, reports on how the Democrats might address those global trade agreements.
Casey Wian, in Los Angeles tonight, reports on ballot initiatives in two states aimed at controlling the spiraling problems created by our illegal immigration crisis.
We begin with Lisa Sylvester in Washington -- Lisa.
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, from Iowa to North Carolina to New York, the issues of jobs and trade agreements are helping Democratic candidates gain an edge.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER (voice over): Jack Davis puts it simply.
JACK DAVIS (D), NEW YORK CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: We're saving American jobs, farms and industries.
SYLVESTER: What's more important, having a job or being able to buy cheap foreign products? He's running for Congress in western New York, an area hammered with manufacturing job losses.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Jack Davis says stop giving our jobs away.
SYLVESTER: In dozens of races, trade is a prominent theme. New trade agreements and opening trade relations with China have pushed jobs out of U.S. towns and over to China, Mexico and India.
AUGGIE TANTILLO, AMERICAN MANUFACTURERS TRADE ACT. COALITION: What we've ended up with our agreements that are extremely damaging to the manufacturing base, to the tune of nearly three million lost manufacturing jobs.
SYLVESTER: The blanket free trade mantra is being replaced with calls for fair trade, leveling the playing field with China and reducing incentives for companies to move overseas.
CHRIS SLEVIN, CITIZENS TRADE PACT: Candidates around the country and those running for statewide office, like Sherrod Brown in Ohio, or Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, Jon Tester in Montana, and others, are seeing that standing for fair trade policy is smart policy but it's also becoming smart politics right now.
SYLVESTER: If Democrats take control of Congress, it will mean changes to the Bush trade agenda. Trade promotion authority, also known as fast track, has allowed the White House to negotiate trade agreements with little congressional input. That's up for renewal next summer. The Bush administration also wants to open the door further to trading with Vietnam.
LORI WALLACH, PUBLIC CITIZEN: One of the things you hear the Democrats talking about is, how do you put a steering wheel and emergency brakes on what are now runaway executive branch trade negotiators who ignore Congress, who ignore the public and keep doing these bad trade deals?
SYLVESTER: If Democrats do take over, the White House is expected to try to squeak in a few new trade policies through the lame duck Congress.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SYLVESTER: And among the issues the Bush administration will bring before the lame duck Congress is normalizing trade relations with Vietnam, much the way it was done with China. That's already on the congressional calendar for debate for next week -- Lou.
DOBBS: Lisa, thank you very much.
Lisa Sylvester from Washington.
Voters in two states tomorrow, one near the border, another state hundreds of miles away, will be voting on ballot measures that would crack down on illegal immigration, something the federal government refuses to do.
Casey Wian reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): More U.S.-bound illegal aliens cross the Arizona border than anywhere else. As a result, costs are soaring for state-funded programs such as education and childcare. Most Arizona voters have had enough and are likely to pass four ballot measures making the state a bit less welcoming to illegal aliens.
DEAN MARTIN (R), ARIZONA TREASURER CANDIDATE: We're trying to cover the areas that the state does have control and hopefully pointing out to the federal government that, look, we need this problem solved, and we need it -- and if you're not going to do enough, we're going to take it matters in our own hands.
WIAN: Proposition 100 would deny bail to illegal aliens accused of serious felonies. It's leading by 3-1. Proposition 102 would prevent illegal aliens from receiving punitive damages in civil lawsuits. It's up by 201. 103 is ahead by a similar margin. It would make English Arizona's official language.
Only Proposition 300, with a seven-point lead, is even close. It would prohibit illegal aliens from using some state-funded programs, including childcare and adult education.
But the politically correct wording of the poll question is skewing the results. Arizona State's poll says Proposition 300 will prevent undocumented immigrants from taking English classes and not allow undocumented students to pay reduced in-state tuition. But a Northern Arizona University poll says 300 would limit those in other programs to citizens and legal residents of the United States. Put that way, 70 percent favor the measure.
Two illegal immigration measures are on the ballot in Colorado.
RICHARD LAMB, DEFEND COLORADO NOW: All kinds of states that never thought they had a problem with illegal immigration, people are starting to see how ubiquitous this problem is.
WIAN: Referendum H would prevent employers from deducting wages paid to illegal aliens as a business expense. Referendum K would order the state to sue the federal government and demand it enforce all existing immigration laws.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN: Now, both of those measures have already been signed by the Colorado state legislature and signed by the governor. Supporters say it's now the voters turn to send a strong message to Washington -- Lou.
DOBBS: Casey, thank you very much.
Casey Wian.
We'll be watching those ballot initiatives here on CNN very closely throughout the evening tomorrow.
Coming up next, ballot initiatives give voters, of course, the chance to express frustration with a government out of touch with many of the problems of our middle class. We'll have that report.
And control of the Senate. It hangs on a few critical races. Some of those races too close to call.
We'll have live reports from the states with those closest races.
And a California wildfire threatening homes east of Los Angeles tonight. We'll have details, all of the latest for you and more.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Many middle class Americans are simply fed up with corporate America and special interests and their tight hold on our government. Tomorrow many voters across the country will have a chance to reassert their property rights and to vote for an increase in the minimum wage. There are more than 200 statewide measures on the ballot in 37 states. Christine Romans reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): For proof American voters are frustrated, look no further than the sheer number of initiatives on the ballot this November.
JENNIE BOWSER, NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES: I think that there is a frustration with government being expressed in this both in terms of the numbers of measures on the ballot, and then also a lot of them have a sort of reining in government flavor to them.
ROMANS: Like reining in eminent domain, on the ballot in a dozen states. A sharp rebuke of the growing trend of private property seized for local commercial development.
Also on the ballot in six states, a measure to raise minimum wage from $5.15 an hour. Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia have already done so despite overwhelming opposition from business groups who call higher wages a job killer.
It's an attempt to blunt out-of-control corporate interests, and polls show broad support.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They were all polling in the 60, 70, even 80-percent range. So if that holds true, then all of these will likely pass tomorrow.
ROMANS: It has the potential to energize Democratic voters.
KRISTINA WILFORE, BALLOT INITIATIVES STRATEGY CENTER: You look at the states that have this on the ballot, minimum wage is going to be a huge boost in some very close races.
ROMANS: Just as gay marriage bans could rally conservative voters in eight states. Two, Virginia and Tennessee, with tight Senate races.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROMANS: A wedge issued as they call it there. But by far, the big issues for middle class voters seem to be reasserting their property rights and raising that minimum wage. If that passes, we'll have a majority of states now, Lou, with their minimum wages above the federal standard.
DOBBS: And we should point out that in the 23 states in which that minimum wage has been raised above the federal minimum wage, which has the purchasing power today, $5.15 an hour, it has purchasing power equivalent to that of 1955. It's incredible.
Thank you very much.
Christine Romans. That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. Which of these issues will most influence your vote tomorrow: border security, job security, the war in Iraq, healthcare?
Please cast your vote at loudobbs.com. We'll have the results later here in the broadcast.
Time now to take a look at some of your thoughts.
Robin in Florida said, "Hey, Lou, how in the hell do illegal aliens get taxpayer-funded benefits? I'm a single mom who works at the poverty level, yet I'm not eligible for benefits because I make a couple of dollars too much and yet not enough to actually get by. I live paycheck to paycheck and have no hopes of ever being able to buy a small home for me and my children. Unbelievable."
Ken in Michigan, "I just got a call telling me I have to vote for someone who supports the American worker. The only problem is it sounded like a foreign telemarketing firm. The phone number on my caller I.D. was 000-000-0000."
Fred in Kentucky, "It has gotten old hearing how great our economy is while I watch working men and women struggle to keep it together. Seniors who have been lost in the new Medicare shuffle and good-paying jobs becoming a happy memory. Thanks for standing up for the middle class and those who have been forced downward."
Mae in Arkansas, "Lou, I did it. I registered as an Independent. Let them all court me!"
Good for you.
E-mail us at loudobbs.com. We'll have more of your thoughts coming up here later. Each of you whose e-mail is read here receives a copy of my new book, "War on the Middle Class".
Coming up next, we're live in the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio, and Missouri, where the fight for control of the U.S. Senate will be decided. Three of the nation's most distinguished political analysts join us to give us their thoughts on what will influence the vote tomorrow and what might actually occur as a result of that vote.
Dangerous new fires are burning out of control near Los Angeles tonight. Those fires fueled by fierce Santa Ana winds.
All of those stories, a great deal more coming right up when we return.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: In California tonight a dangerous wildfire burning several hundred acres torched an industrial yard and forced the evacuation of two schools, as well. That wildfire erupted in vegetation near Rialto. That's about 60 miles east of Los Angeles.
The fire driven by 30 to 40-mile-an-hour Santa Ana winds. Those fierce winds driving the flames dangerously close to nearly 100 homes. The fire is about 30 percent contained, we're told now, but erratic winds are keeping the fire crews on edge, and the fire obviously still out of control.
Turning again to tomorrow's elections, polls show Democrats could recapture House control for the first time since 1994. But their chances of taking control of the Senate could hinge on several races that are simply too close to call.
The Democrats need a gain of six seats to get control from the Republicans. Tonight we have reports on three critical Senate races.
Ed Henry reporting from Virginia, reporting on the race there. Incumbent George Allen, the odds on favor just a couple of months ago, now locked in the political battle of his life. That race simply too close to call.
Bob Franken tonight reporting from Ohio, where anti-GOP sentiment is running strong and taking its toll on the incumbent.
And Jonathan Freed is in conservative rural Missouri, where that race remains neck and neck as well.
We begin in Virginia with Ed Henry -- Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good evening, Lou.
That's right, a last-minute gambit from Senator Allen tonight. He's bought TV time, two minutes on local stations, to try to put in a last-minute direct appeal to voters and try to save his seat.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY (voice over): It's a battle so ugly that about the only thing Republican George Allen and Democrat Jim Webb can probably agree on is this: thankfully it's almost over.
JIM WEBB (D), VIRGINIA SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: I'm going to go vote. And I'm going to go thank the people on my staff. And then I'm going to go have a beer.
HENRY: Beer and solicitations were flowing as Senator Allen stumped for votes at a tailgate party for the Washington Redskins, the team his father once coached.
SEN. GEORGE ALLEN (R), VIRGINIA: Can I have your vote?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
ALLEN: Thank you!
HENRY: This race was supposed to be just an easy score for Allen, a stepping stone to a run for the White House in 2008. MARK ROZELL, GEORGE MASON UNIV.: And that was what everybody thought was going happen this year, but then some events intruded.
HENRY: Self-inflicted wounds sparking charges of racism.
ALLEN: Welcome. Let's give a welcome to Macaca here.
(APPLAUSE)
HENRY: Allen has fired back that his opponent is sexist.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: James Webb accused women of the Naval academy of being promiscuous.
HENRY: Democrats privately admit Webb is not a particularly good campaigner, but is riding a wave of anti-incumbent anger.
WEBB: When someone has voted for President Bush 97 percent of the time, it is a referendum on what this administration has done.
HENRY: A former Republican who served as Navy Secretary under President Reagan, Webb is a Vietnam vet who wears the combat boots of his son, currently serving in Iraq. His final push included a swing through rural Virginia, trying to copy the playbook of centrist Democrats like Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, Virginia's last two governors.
(on camera): Now, a lot of pressure tonight on George Allen, particularly on the issue of Iraq. He appears to have gotten that message. He stopped using the phrase "stay the course". He's acknowledged there has not been enough progress in Iraq, not as much as he had hoped for. He just wrapped up a rally here in Richmond with Republican Senator John Warner, who, as you know, recently said Iraq is going sideways. They will appear together tonight in that final TV ad, in which Senator Allen will acknowledge mistakes have been made in, try to separate himself a little bit from the White House. But he will say he wants another six years to try to get the job done right -- Lou.
DOBBS: Ed, thank you very much, Ed Henry.
Corruption has been the issue affecting Republicans in Ohio throughout the campaign. Republican Congressman Bob Ney, recently convicted of taking bribes, giving up his House seat, and the state's governor fined for failing to report gifts. Tonight, GOP incumbent Senator Mike DeWine is fighting back, but it is an uphill battle in a race that is too close to call.
Bob Franken reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The last days reflect the styles of each Senate candidate. Democrat Sherrod Brown, the poll leading challenger, held a loud rally last night here in a Columbus church, accompanied by space hero and Ohio native John Glenn. SHERROD BROWN, (D) CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: John Glenn, thank you. It's an honor to be introduced by you.
FRANKEN: The Republican, incumbent Senator Mike DeWine, was methodically trying to play catch-up, fueling up at a pancake breakfast.
SEN. MIKE DEWINE, (R) OHIO: Pancakes look good. What's going on?
FRANKEN: DeWine insists his six to eight-point deficit looks good.
DEWINE: We're closing. We're closing. The polls this morning had us six down, but we're moving in the right direction and we're going to close it.
FRANKEN: The Democratic challenger describes Republicans as desperate.
BROWN: They're angry and they can't stand it that they might lose their job and they're saying, I want my blanky.
FRANKEN: National Republicans decided to blanket other states with money. They've cut off their spending for the Ohio Senate race, but the TV ads are still incessant from both sides.
DEWINE: I'm Mike DeWine. I approve of this message to keep fighting for all our families.
BROWN: I'm Sherrod Brown. I approve this message. It's time to put the middle class first.
FRANKEN: Ohio Democrats have gotten a big boost from the state GOP's corruption problems. Convicted for receiving bribes, just- resigned Congressman Bob Nay is considered an embarrassment by his own party. Outgoing Governor Bob Taft pleaded no contest and was fined $4,000 for failing to report gifts. Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the man who wants to be governor, is far back in the polls.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(on camera): So anything but bad news for Ohio Republicans, Lou, would be considered an upset. But as we all know, in politics, upset happens -- Lou.
DOBBS: Indeed they do. And with everything else going on in the state of Ohio, Bob, as you know, federal attorneys, Justice Department attorneys, moving in. And it's going to be one of the most closely watched races to make certain that e-voting machines are working and that the election is conducted with absolute integrity. Absolute integrity. Let me rephrase that, Bob -- with as much integrity as they can possibly manage.
FRANKEN: And of course, hoping that these voting machines, which are now mandated, work properly, with or without integrity. DOBBS: Bob, thank you very much. Bob Franken.
In Missouri Democrats aren't usually favored in the conservative rural areas of that state, but this year Democrat Claire McCaskill has made a strong showing there. Tonight, the race with incumbent Senator Jim Talent is simply, again, too close to call.
Jonathan Freed joins me live now from St. Louis with more on the story -- Jonathan.
JONATHAN FREED, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, tonight here in Missouri it is all about getting out the vote and turnout, turnout, turnout. When a race is as close as this one is, getting people to the polls is what is going make or break the difference. And that is what both campaigns have been doing hard for the last couple of days, with both candidates really appealing strongly to their base.
You pointed out that Democratic challenger, Claire McCaskill, has been making inroads in what is normally a very core Republican, rural constituency here in this state. One of the ways, Lou, that she's been able to do that is by in part turning this race here in Missouri into a referendum on the Bush presidency.
When Jim Talent took office in 2002, it was before the war and the president's approval ratings were very high. We all know what's happened in the intervening years, Mr. Bush's ratings have dropped. And McCaskill is trying very hard to tie Talent to Bush -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you very much, Jonathan Freed.
And poll results in other key Senate races tonight. These are the latest into CNN. In Montana, Democratic challenger Jon Tester has moved ahead with 50 percent of the likely voters. Three-term incumbent Senator Conrad Burns trailing at 41 percent.
In Tennessee, that race seemed to be tightening again. Republican Bob Corker is now just three points ahead of Democratic candidate Representative Harold Ford, Jr.
In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Menendez lead has risen. He now holds a strong ten point lead, 50 percent to the challenger Tom Kean's 40 percent.
Still ahead here, who wins control of the House and Senate could hinge on races that have really tightened up. Our esteemed political panel joins us to sort out states to watch.
And tomorrow's e-voting could be a whole series of problems, a disaster waiting to happen in some states. A groundbreaking new report revealing it takes only a few key strokes to steal an election. We'll you how and we'll tell you how to prevent it. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A scathing new report examines what went wrong with e- voting in Ohio during the 2004 presidential race. President Bush beat Senator John Kerry by only about 118,000 votes, which sealed the victory for the Republicans. Among the charges in the report, the e- voting machine included votes that were never cast.
Joining me tonight, three gentlemen who would likely term that Ohio election an outright e-voting fiasco. Peter Peckarsky, he's the primary author of the new report. Good to have you with us. And Robert Fitrakis, he's the co-author of the new book "What Happened in Ohio?" And also with us, the co-author of the book, Harvey Wasserman.
Good to have you all with us.
HARVEY WASSERMAN, CO-AUTHOR, "WHAT HAPPENED IN OHIO": Good to be here.
PETER PECKARSKY, AUTHOR, OHIO E-VOTING REPORT: Good to be here.
DOBBS: And let's just start with the fact -- in sum, what the three of you are saying is that no one should take it for granted, irrespective of what these polls are saying, that the outcome of tomorrow's election could even approximate what those polls are showing, correct?
PECKARSKY: That's entirely possible, Lou. However, even given the machines in use tomorrow, there are things that voters can do right now to make sure that the vote gets counted accurately. For example, they can vote -- ask to vote on paper. And in the evening, just before the polls close, they can walk over to their local polling place, write down the results, or if they're available, either photograph or take a copy of the results and compare them later to the results reported from that precinct. And if there's a discrepancy, let their local candidates know or get ahold of one of the national organizations.
DOBBS: Right. And there are going to be plenty of representatives around the most likely problem areas tomorrow.
Robert Fitrakis, you were in federal court today asking for a random audit in Ohio, 3 percent of the precincts using direct or recording machines. Your concerns? What happened?
ROBERT FITRAKIS, CO-AUTHOR, "WHAT HAPPENED IN OHIO?": Well, we lost, but the court suggested it was premature. If these machines -- and when they melt down tomorrow, we'll go back to court, because right now, Lou, we really have a push-and-pray system. It's faith- based voting. And the only thing that will ensure that the votes are really being recorded, because they use this term recalibration, and that means essentially that the machines are recording wrong. We need an audit.
DOBBS: You need an audit, and Harvey Wasserman, I mean, what is your expectation tomorrow? What is -- go ahead?
WASSERMAN: Well, we need as many people as possible to come out and vote. And it is not enough just to vote. We expect a lot of glitches. Carefully choreographed chaos is what's kept the Republican Party in power, and we need as many people to come out and not merely vote, but to stay at your polling places, monitor what happens, send us e-mails at democracy@freepress.org, and really pay attention to more than just counting the vote, but making sure the votes get counted.
Here in Ohio, they are actually doing away with posting the results at the precincts in Cleveland. We're worried about coverups all up and down the line here in Ohio and around the United States.
And this requires vigilance from people who come out and vote.
DOBBS: I was going through the list -- the Justice Department today gave us a list of places where their attorneys are going to be. Cayahoga County, Cleveland, obviously prominent on that list because of all of the e-voting machine problems.
Are you putting particular emphasis in that county?
WASSERMAN: We are. I mean, we're very concerned about the installation of a large number of new e-voting machines, even though there were hearings where people with great knowledge warned the county not to install these machines. We believe they are installed possibly with the purpose of shaving votes in the Democratic counties, and we're concerned about expanding the vote in the Republican counties, which we think is what happened in 2004.
PECKARSKY: Lou, this is Peter. One thing that voters might do is ask for a paper ballot. In some states, that's allowed, even if it is an electronic voting machine. You are asked to allow -- you can ask for a paper ballot, cast it on paper.
DOBBS: We're going to have on our Web site, by the way, at loudobbs.com, we're going to have a number of the responses that voters can take if they do determine there's a problem either with their vote or someone else's, so that will be available.
Gentlemen, we're out of time. I appreciate the three of you being here tonight, first of all, but importantly, all of the work that you have done in bringing to the nation's attention the problems with e-voting, the voting irregularities and all that we are contending with on this eve.
Robert Fitrakis also running as -- is a -- for governor as a Green Party candidate, so you have got your hands full, as well.
FITRAKIS: Well, it gives me standing if something happens.
DOBBS: Gives you special standing, that's right.
WASSERMAN: We feel democracy is what is at stake here, and people have to come out to preserve our democracy. We've never been in greater danger of losing it. This is a very crucial moment in our history.
DOBBS: Well, gentlemen, it's good to have you here. We wish you all the best. We wish the nation all the best. And I'm going to be shameless and absolutely recommend this book, "What Happened in Ohio?" by Fitrakis and Wasserman and their colleague, Steven Rosenfeld.
Gentlemen, thank you. I suspect we may be talking with you tomorrow, as well. We appreciate it.
WASSERMAN: See you again. Thank you very much, Lou.
FITRAKIS: Thank you. Best to you.
DOBBS: Coming up next, America's biggest e-voting experiment to date is just hours away. We'll tell you about last-ditch efforts to make certain this election is accurate and fair.
Also ahead, 11th hour predictions on who wins, who loses from our respected panel of political analysts and strategists. Don't go away. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Joining me now, Republican strategist, former White House political director Ed Rollins. Errol Louis, "New York Daily News." Democratic strategist Robert Zimmerman.
Ed, at this point, it looks like the Webb/Allen race in Virginia has really closed. What do you expect the outcome to be there?
ED ROLLINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: It is a dead even race. I think who turns out the vote -- if the Northern Virginia vote is greater than the Richmond vote, Webb could win this. It's a changing dynamic.
DOBBS: In Missouri, McCaskill has opened up four points in the polls over Talent. Is that a sure-fire deal for you?
ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Nothing is sure fire until the votes are counted, but what's interesting about that race is that Claire McCaskill has been working in the suburbs and the exurbs in that state and it's clearly paying off.
DOBBS: And you are not ready to put it in the win column for the Democrats yet?
ZIMMERMAN: I feel we're going to win it, but I'm not prepared to declare victory until the polls close.
DOBBS: I just wanted to ask.
Tennessee, a close race between Corker and Harold Ford, Jr. Bob Corker has opened up three points there, where he was trailing up until the last -- just about eight days ago. What do you expect to be the outcome?
ERROL LOUIS, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS: Well, a lot of that gap is because Republicans have rushed a lot of resources from Ohio in particular down into Tennessee, to try and save that seat.
DOBBS: Giving up on Ohio?
LOUIS: Well, redeploying is maybe the way to put it.
DOBBS: Now, you are not supposed to be the strategist here.
LOUIS: I just talked to my contacts down there and they say, look, a bunch of money and a bunch of ads hit and a bunch of people have come, and they are all coming from Ohio, that they're drawing a line in the sand and trying to keep that seat in Tennessee.
DOBBS: Is this -- did the Democrats, Ed, succeed in this race in your judgment in making George Bush the wedge issue, in making the war in Iraq, nationalizing this election?
ROLLINS: With a major assist from the White House. I mean, that's what they wanted to do, and the president, being a former cheerleader, wanted to go out and basically be a cheerleader. He wanted to go out and do whatever he could to help his own side, and by doing so he talked about the war every day and it became part of the debate.
A lot of local candidates wanted to go talk about local issues, and the president obviously always takes the top agenda item.
ZIMMERMAN: But it also speaks to how isolated this White House is and now detached the Republican Congress is, where they really felt they could try to run their campaigns in support of the Bush strategy in Iraq and in support of the status quo.
ROLLINS: At the end of the day, they would have been second- guessed no matter what they did. I've sat in those chairs, and if they wouldn't have gone into Missouri that was close and then go into Montana that was close and they ended up losing those seats, it would have been really second-guessed. So it is one of those things where you have to live with it. Democrats were effective in making it about the war, I think, and we'll have to just wait and see.
LOUIS: And the irony is, is that the Democrats -- they're going to win on the war if they do win. And it will push the whole pocketbook agenda really right off the table. The increase in the minimum wage, the cuts in the cost of student loans. None of that is going to, I think, going to get talked about, because there is going to be this huge fight over the war and the Democratic proposal to pull out of Iraq.
ZIMMERMAN: I think also the Democratic candidates reflect the regional diversity of this country and the philosophical diversity of the Democratic Party. And I think that's really what is so unique about this race.
Nancy Pelosi, Rahm Emanuel, Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer have really put together candidates around the country who really represent the broad spectrum. DOBBS: Representing the broad spectrum, but what Errol says about being basic, meat and potatoes, economic issues, with the middle class that's getting hammered from a hundred different directions.
The idea that -- let's make an assumption, that Nancy Pelosi does have -- I won't declare her the speaker of the House yet, but has significant influence over this. What are Democrats running on if not to represent people who have been denied representation here?
ROLLINS: Well, they have their constituents. They've always had their constituents. And they have to go basically produce for those constituents today, which I think the middle class will suffer even more. I think the reality is that they think that there's lots of things they can do and there aren't going to be lots of things...
LOUIS: Well, in '94 Newt Gingrich came in. They had a ten-point Contract with America. After a year, he had a shutdown of the government and only three of their agenda items had passed. A big controversial issue can bog down the whole program. I think that's what Democrats are facing.
ZIMMERMAN: I think what's really going to be still significant about the Democrats -- and hopefully, we will succeed -- is that you're going to see an agenda that does speak to the forgotten middle class, whether it's raising the minimum wage, enforcing the 9/11 -- recommending 9/11 security recommendations be put in place, prescription drug programs. You're going to see an agenda that really does speak to the middle class issues around this country.
DOBBS: Well, Rahm Emanuel and others came out with a book called "The Plan", the Democratic plan. And you know, frankly, it didn't feel like a plan after you looked at it. And this administration, it doesn't feel like they notice that there are 250 million Americans out there who, when you don't slice and dice them into various ethnic groups, various religions, various occupations, they come out middle class Americans.
The idea that we're hanging on a bit of a precipice here in terms of voter anger, do you think tomorrow's election is going to be a huge demonstration by those folks, or do you think it's going to be mild, modest, perhaps inconsequential when we start adding up the tallies for the House of Representatives?
ZIMMERMAN: You know, I think every poll and survey that we've seen shows that the public is angry and they're demanding a change in the status quo. And I think especially when it comes to the survival of the middle class, this midterm is absolutely critical, especially in terms of tax protection and protecting the right for college tuition taxes and health care and those bread and butter issues that give the middle class a future. that's what this election's about.
ROLLINS: But they're angry at both sides. There's no great satisfaction about the Democrats, and they're not particularly satisfied with their plan. And I think a lot of voters are going to be terribly disappointed when this election is over. The war is still going to continue. The president's not going to stop that. That's where focus is going to be. Democrats are either going to get on board and help or not help. And I think at the end of the day, there's going to be a lot of struggle for the next two years.
LOUIS: And the press will contribute to it in a lot of ways. We'll continue to talk about stem cell and about border security. And these are important issues.
DOBBS: Instead of about failing public education, the lack of border security, an illegal immigration crisis in this country, the fact that wages have been stagnant for 30 years...
Should I continue?
ZIMMERMAN: But that's where a Democratic Congress has the opportunity to provide the check and balance on this White House, ask the tough questions. Now, if they don't measure up, they're not going to be in there for long.
DOBBS: The problem with check and balance in this instance is that this Congress that just wrapped up has done nothing anyway, and it isn't likely to do too much further.
Errol, thank you very much.
Ed, thank, you.
ROLLINS: Thank you.
DOBBS: Robert, thank you.
And tomorrow we begin to find out.
Here we go. The U.S. Justice Department is sending out hundreds of federal officials to monitor polling all across this country, and they won't be alone. Citizen observers will also be targeting polls in states that seem to have the greatest potential for trouble.
Kitty Pilgrim reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Because the midterm elections are going to be such tight races in many areas of the country, there is little room for mishap. Sixty-three percent of the country's voters will be voting on different equipment than they did in 2000. Nearly 80 percent of voters live in districts that use some kind of electronic voting machines, either touch screens or optical scan machines. In primaries electronic machines proved they can malfunction and be unreliable.
WARREN STEWART, VOTETRUSTUSA: One of the problems is is that once the initial results are announced, then you set up a presumed winner and sore loser, and then it becomes all very political. And we're trying to identify as many of the problems on election day as we can. PILGRIM: A record 500 federal observers from the Department of Justice will go to 22 states where problems are expected. They'll be sent to such locations as Maricopa County, Arizona, Palm Bach County, Florida, and Cuyahoga County, Ohio.
Electionline.org targets ten states for potential problems involving poorly trained poll workers, defective equipment and voter intimidation. Voting activists also have drawn up problem states because of new electronic registration systems or poll books which have dropped voters from the poll records during the primaries. A provisional ballot should be offered to anyone who finds themselves dropped from the voting list.
LAWRENCE NORDEN, NYU BRENNAN CENTER: If there are problems with the machines, voters should be -- if they're not working, if there are really long lines, poll workers should be giving voters another option on which to vote. They should be giving them paper ballots.
PILGRIM: Activists say it's very important that voters be aware of their rights.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM (on camera): Activists say that voters can serve as the watchdogs of electronic voting equipment by promptly pointing out any problems they have. But they cannot detect some of the more serious problems. If the voting machines don't have paper trail, and not all states have a required paper trail for their electronic voting machines -- Lou.
DOBBS: There are about 15 states don't have any requirement.
Kitty, thank you very much. Kitty Pilgrim.
Still ahead here, more of your thoughts on the results of our poll tonight.
And coming up at the top of the hour, I'll be joined by Wolf Blitzer as CNN's election coverage continues. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Now the results of tonight's poll. Forty-nine percent of you say the war in Iraq will most influence your vote tomorrow. Time now take a look at some of your thoughts.
Durwood in Pennsylvania wrote in to say, "Lou, the ACLU is doing all they can to fight the Hazelton, Pennsylvania laws meant to protect their city from all the negative consequences of being overrun by illegal Mexican aliens. The ACLU claims to defend Americans' civil rights, but what is a great civil right than self-governance? I say the ACLU is the most anti-American organization in this country."
And J. in Georgia said, "I have listened intently to all the candidates, Republican and Democrat. The Democrats have said that they have a plan, a better way, to get us out of Iraq, but I still haven't heard it. It must be a secret plan."
John in Georgia said, "George W. Bush should be very acquainted with the no-plan option. He has been exercising it for four years."
And Linda in California: "I don't think anyone has a plan to win. I don't know that winning is an option at this point; it may be too late."
And Jeremy in Florida: "Lou: just imagine where our country, Iraq and the middle class would be today if our politicians would have worked as hard on the issues as they have worked on their campaigns to save their butts."
Marge in Ohio: "Just finished reading "War on the Middle Class." Wish that was required reading for all high school seniors."
We love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts at loudobbs.com. And that is the latest here from our broadcast. Our coverage, "America Votes, 2006", continues.
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