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American Morning
Life or Death for Saddam Hussein?; One Day Until the Midterm Elections
Aired November 06, 2006 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR, AMERICAN MORNING: A new balance of power on Wednesday, though.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR, AMERICAN MORNING: The sex scandal involving the evangelical minister, Ted Haggard, takes another twist. The preacher is now calling himself a deceiver and a liar.
M. O'BRIEN: And Saddam Hussein's only chance to avoid the gallows. We'll tell you about that, ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING.
Good morning. It's Monday, November 6th. I'm Miles O'Brien.
S. O'BRIEN: And I'm Soledad O'Brien. Thanks for being with us.
Just one more day till the midterm elections. The big question of the morning, of course, is the balance of power shift -- going to go to the Democrats or will it stay with the Republicans? They need to pick up, the Democrats, this is, 15 seats if they want to regain the House; 16 seats if they want to control the Senate.
Let's take a look this morning at where some of the key races stand. Dan Lothian is in Hartford, Connecticut, for us this morning; and Jonathan Freed in St. Louis, Missouri; and Dana Bash in Arlington, Virginia, CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider, right here with us in person.
Nice to see you. Bill, in fact, we'll begin with you.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST, AMERICAN MORNING: OK.
S. O'BRIEN: What do the Democrats need to do, at this point, 24 hours out to win?
SCHNEIDER: They need 15 seats in the House to get a majority. Every analyst that has projected a finish, including John Mercurio on this show a few minutes ago, says that they will get that; that they will have a majority in the House.
Our poll, just out this morning, shows that among likely voters, Democrats now have a 20-point lead. That's a very large lead, 58-38. A little tighter among registered voters, but still a very solid lead for Democrats going into this election for the House of Representatives.
Other polls have shown things a little bit closer. Those national polls were all over the place, but they all show the Democrats ahead.
S. O'BRIEN: President Bush, approval ratings. I think his disapproval is at something like 61 percent. I mean, shockingly high. How is that going to play into what we see tomorrow?
SCHNEIDER: Yes. This is an unusual election because for a lot of voters they're voting a national referendum, for or against the Iraq war and President Bush. President Bush's approval rating at 35 percent is one of the lowest we've ever seen going into a midterm election. We asked voters, is your vote a message of support or opposition to the president? And we're finding that 41 percent of voters, almost half, 41 percent, say they will be voting opposition to President Bush.
Only 16 percent say they're going to be voting support for Bush. Very different from four years ago in the last midterm; 42 percent say President Bush is not a factor. If this election turns into something like a parliamentary election, where people are voting on national candidates, national parties, national issues, it does not look good for the Republicans.
S. O'BRIEN: All right, Bill Schneider. Nice to see you in person. It's going to be a long 24 hours, for you, 48 probably.
SCHNEIDER: It will be.
S. O'BRIEN: Thank you.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
S. O'BRIEN: Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: The war in Iraq is a key issue, of course, if not the issue in congressional races all across the country. That's certainly the case in the Connecticut Senate race where Democrat Ned Lamont is trailing Democrat, turned Independent, Joe Lieberman. AMERICAN MORNING's Dan Lothian live from Hartford, Connecticut with more, Dan.
DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT, AMERICAN MORNING: Good morning, Miles.
According to the most recent poll, Senator Lieberman continues to lead by about a dozen points, leading businessman, wealthy businessman, Ned Lamont. Both were out campaigning this weekend. The supporters were also out reaching out to the voters in this final dash to the finish line.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LOTHIAN (voice over): At a Connecticut supermarket, Senator Joe Lieberman supporters pitching shoppers on one more item.
DANIELLE SELBER, LIEBERMAN SUPPORTER: We've been engaging the voters, telling them why we're sticking with Joe, why they should stick with Joe. LOTHIAN: A few miles away, volunteers with challenger Ned Lamont's campaign makes signs and phone calls.
BRENDAN MAHONEY, LAMONT SUPPORTER: We're trying to get in contact with as many voters as possible and we're getting our volunteer base all set.
LOTHIAN: Lieberman, a three-term Democratic senator, is running as an independent after a surprising defeat by Lamont in the Democratic primary in August. The war in Iraq has been the central focus in this campaign. Lamont said the choice is clear.
NED LAMONT, (D) SENATE CANDIDATE: A vote for Joe Lieberman is a vote for no change, stay the course in Iraq, more war. A vote for us is a vote for change, start bringing our troops home.
LOTHIAN: But Lieberman, who was also honoring veterans, portrayed his challenger as a one-issue candidate, with a narrow, negative agenda.
SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN, (I) SENATE CANDIDATE: Washington needs to be fixed, but the way to fix it is to break the partisan gridlock, and that's what I'm going to do.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LOTHIAN: The Republican challenger in this race has not really been a factor. Alan Schlesinger, only measuring around 8 percentage points in the recent polls. Some of the moderate Republicans expected to go to Senator Lieberman. But he still maintains he's a Democrat and if elected for another term, he will work with the Democrats. I asked if there would be any hard feelings to those Democrats who did not supported him, when he became an Independent. He said, no. Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Dan Lothian, in Hartford. Thank you.
Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: The Missouri Senate race could tip the balance of power in the Senate, to the left or to the right. The two candidates, Republican Incumbent Jim Talent and Democrat Claire McCaskill are in a virtual dead heat. And they're counting on the ground troops more than ever, in the campaign's final hours. CNN's Jonathan Freed is live for us in St. Louis, this morning.
Good morning, Jonathan.
JONATHAN FREED, CNN CORRESPONDENT, AMERICAN MORNING: Good morning, Soledad.
You know, campaign workers on both sides of this race are telling us they are just not expecting to get much sleep at all until this is all over.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. We have a lot of different precincts we're working on today.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We'd appreciate you supporting Jim Talent.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This script is to help promote the whole Democratic team.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
FREED (voice over): Missouri Senate race couldn't be closer. And in the closing days of a close election --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We'll see you soon.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. Thanks a lot.
FREED: The campaign volunteer becomes a powerful player.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK, let's go.
FREED: Jim Talent supporters know, keeping the Republican in Washington could also determine if the GOP keeps control of Congress.
(On camera): All of the experts are saying that when a race is as close as this one is, it comes down to turnout, who actually comes out and votes, which is what you guys are trying to do today, trying to get out and vote. Do you feel a sense of responsibility because of that?
EMILY LORINO, JIM TALENT VOLUNTEER: I think so, definitely. It's our responsibility as volunteers and interns -- and like, people of Missouri, to go around and make sure the voters are getting out.
FREED: Democrat Claire McCaskill's troops say they're motivated by a desire for change.
(On camera): This is not easy work. It can be long and cold.
CLARISSA GAFF, CLAIRE MCCASKILL VOLUNTEER: Obviously, we want Claire McCaskill to win. And there are so many issues where the Democrats are stronger than the Republicans right now. On the Iraq war, I haven't appreciated anything the Republican Congress has done involving Iraq.
FREED: There is passion on both sides and Talent's people are eager to prove voters will come out and show support for the GOP.
LORINO: Although the polls are saying we're in a dead heat, I'm feeling a strong push for Senator Talent and hopeful for Tuesday.
FREED (on camera): Are you guys feeling like you're going to put her over the top, the campaign will succeed?
GAFF: I'm feeling really good about it.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think there's a really good chance that Claire will win Missouri, and I think we're part of that.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
FREED: Even some new polls that are showing the Democrats likely ahead are still essentially within the margin of error, so they really don't come much closer than this one -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: And we'll all know in 24 hours, or so. Jonathan Freed for us, this morning. Thanks, Jonathan.
Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Leaders of both parties will tell you voter turnout is key to victory. On this election eve, Republicans and Democrats are doing all they can to get their voters to the polls tomorrow. CNN's Dana Bash live at Democratic Candidate Jim Webb's headquarters in Arlington, Virginia.
Dana, Good morning.
DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT, AMERICAN MORNING: Good morning, Miles.
It's pretty quiet here at this early hour. But as you can see, this is what a campaign headquarters looks like that has been really filled with volunteers. We were here until the wee hours of last night. Volunteers were here stuffing envelopes, making sure that voters they have spent months contacting, actually get to the polls. They put these kind of things in envelopes to make sure that voters, potential voters, know the address of the polling places.
Democrats are well aware that they might have the anti- incumbent, anti-President Bush sentiment behind them. But they have to get voters to the polls in order to beat back a well-organized Republican opposition.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm calling to ask you to join me in re- electing George Allen --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: George Allen, to the Senate.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: ...need to re-elect George Allen.
BASH (voice over): Voices of a voter turnout operation Republicans hope keeps them in power.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. We're ready to go? Let's get started.
BASH: GOP foot soldiers are marching battlegrounds across the country, implementing their 72-hour get out the vote program.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The 72-hour program really takes about 72 weeks to put together. So there is no doubt it can make a difference in these close elections.
BASH: Since 2000 Republicans have been building a voter vault, files of GOP voters. Adding to that by micro-targeting, using consumer data, what magazines or cars someone buys, to identify new voters.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We feel with our targeting we're able to go in there and find very specific voters in there, as individuals, and turn them out. Maybe instead of getting 10 or 12 percent, we could get 14 or 16 percent.
BASH: That could make the difference where it's neck in neck, like this Indiana district.
BRIAN DIFFELL, GOP VOLUNTEER: We target these households based on folks we think may be friendly toward the reception we get at those houses.
BASH: GOP volunteers knock on doors in Democratic neighborhoods Republicans wrote off in the past. What's different this year is Democrats are doing the same thing here.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're volunteers with the local Democratic Party.
BASH: Using the same strategy and technology to find Democratic voters, investing $8 million in turnout, but playing catch up.
KAREN FINNEY, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CMTE.: We had challenges in 2004 with our database. We've addressed those challenges. And we feel very confident in our voter file.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Please vote for Democrat Jim Webb for the U.S. Senate.
BASH: Back in Virginia Democrats use bar codes just like Republicans to track voters. Who needs an extra push? Maybe a ride to the polls?
LARRY BYRNE, DEMOCRATIC FIELD ORGANIZER: In the old days, when we used to have to do this, you know, one at a time. We would have never gotten to 100,000 contacts, and we got to 300,000.
BASH: But all the money and fancy micro-targeting in the world can't replace moments like this.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Allen's an idiot, and Webb is worse.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You could convince me to vote for George Allen if you help me start my lawn mower.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. I will start your lawnmower. All the way up. There we go. One vote for George Allen.
(END VIDEOTAPE) BASH: Maybe one vote for George Allen, there.
Now, Republicans say one of the reasons why their organization has worked so well over the past several years is because it's funneled through one place. And that is Republican headquarters. They know exactly where the money is spent and where it should go. That is how they think their organization has worked well.
Democrats are spending a lot more money this year. The senatorial committee, for example, is spending $25 million to get out the vote. But they are still splintered. The House and Senate campaign committees are working separately from the party headquarters. Then, of course, you have outside groups who are spending a lot of money, as well, like organized labor.
The question, Miles, at the end of the day, if Democrats don't necessarily eek out the kind of numbers they anticipate, the question will be whether or not this organization, or get out the vote effort was too splinter, or whether they're going to have to consolidate like Republicans do.
M. O'BRIEN: Or maybe they didn't start enough lawn mowers. Who knows?
BASH: Maybe.
M. O'BRIEN: Dana Bash, in Arlington. Thank you very much.
If you're a political junkie, we have just the "Pipe" for you. Cnn.com's Pipeline is free today. That's right. You heard me right. It's free! You can follow the candidates' events with multiple live video streams. Get background with video archives and on-demand news clips, all at cnn.com/pipeline. All day today. Check it out.
And an election eve special tonight. Blitzer, Cooper, King, Zahn and Dobbs. No, it's not a law firm, it's just the marquee members of the best political team on television. The special tonight begins at 7:00 Eastern.
S. O'BRIEN: Happening this morning: The death toll in that Reno, Nevada hotel fire is now 11. Two more bodies were recovered from what is left of the Mizpah Hotel. Officials say they expect there could be more. A casino cook, named Valerie Moore, is now accused of setting that fire on Halloween night. It is the deadliest fire in Reno's history.
Gas prices may be leveling off. A nationwide survey shows a drop over the past two weeks. The last 12 weeks saw a total drop of about 84 cents a gallon. Cheapest gas is in Tulsa, Oklahoma, where they pay about $1.99. Honolulu, Hawaii, they pay the most there, $2.77 a gallon.
In just a couple of hours the aircraft carrier the U.S.S. Intrepid is going to go on a different sort of mission. The floating museum is going to be moved from the shores of the Hudson River, it's home for the past 24 years, to a New Jersey shipyard. It's going to get some repairs. Project will cost about 50 million bucks. And the Intrepid is expected to return to back to New York City in 2008.
NASA is conducting preflight briefings today at the Johnson Space Center, in Houston. The shuttle Discovery set for launch on December 7. The shuttle astronauts will attempt to rewire the International Space Station, which is right now running on temporary electricity -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Coming up, another newspaper calls for Donald Rumsfeld to quit. We'll ask the paper's editor why it's coming out right before election day.
And disgraced Pastor Ted Haggard says he's sorry. But will the sex scandal still affect how evangelicals vote tomorrow. We'll take a look at that, as well, ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. Let's take a quick look at some of the pictures coming to us from the Orlando, Florida area. Massive fire burning at the Gatorland Theme Park. Gatorland is a 110- acre alligator theme park, which is right on the Orlando/Kissimmee border.
You can see, it's just really, really out of control. Though, it's hart to tell exactly what structure is burning. It's hard to tell if anybody has been injured.
The theme park includes both the alligator theme park and a wildlife preserve and then also, you know, the basic train ride and breeding marsh, and alligator display and petting zoo and nature walk. So you can see that part of that structure, part of that massive complex is on fire. But it is impossible, at this point, to say exactly what is burning. You can see this is a huge, huge fire.
And at this point, certainly doesn't look as if it's under any control. Central Florida News 13, out of Kissimmee, is providing these pictures for us. And we're grateful for that. We're going to continue to monitor this.
(WEATHER REPORT)
M. O'BRIEN: An influential series of publications that cater to the armed forces, is once again calling for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to step down. The Military Times newspapers, owned by Gannett, widely read by all the armed services, out with the editorial this morning.
In part it reads, "Rumsfeld has lost credibility with the uniformed leadership, with the troops, with Congress and with the public at large. His strategy has failed. And his ability to lead is compromised."
Robert Hodierne is the senior managing editor for Army Times Publications. He joins us from Washington.
Good to have you with us, Mr. Hodierne. This is not the first time you've called for Rumsfeld's resignation. First time you did that was back after the Abu Ghraib scandal broke out. Why did you do it this time, right before the election?
ROBERT HODIERNE, SR. MANAGING EDITOR, "ARMY TIMES": Well, we did it right now because last week President Bush renewed his vows with the secretary, and said the secretary would be around for the balance of the two years of the president's term. And we thought that was a wrong decision, and took this opportunity to say so.
M. O'BRIEN: Clearly on the eve of the election, this could have some impact though?
HODIERNE: I don't know how much impact it's going to have. That wasn't part of our calculation. Our calculation was in view of that strong statement by the support of the president, we felt the need to say we disagreed with that.
M. O'BRIEN: Let's look at what Tony Snow had to say about this. When asked, he said this, "You've got to be kidding me. I mean, if they didn't want to influence the elections, they could have published it on Wednesday. Why didn't you hold it on Wednesday.
HODIERNE: I suppose if we had done that, the other side would have been saying, well, why did you wait till after the election? Were you doing that to help the president, or whatever. The people standing for election tomorrow don't have the power to fire Secretary Rumsfeld. The only person who has that authority is not on the ballot tomorrow.
M. O'BRIEN: The Department of Defense also responded to this, more to the substance of the editorial. And said this: "The assertion, without evidence, that senior military officers are toeing the line, is an insult to their judgment and integrity." That came from Brian Whitman, Pentagon spokesman. It goes on. What do you say to that?
HODIERNE: Well, I say that if you are a serving officer, there's a 200-year tradition in this country of military subordination to civil authority, they're not going to speak out loud. I think rather than being an insult to their integrity, it's a tribute to their integrity, that they're not speaking out publicly while they're on active duty.
M. O'BRIEN: You say this is non-partisan. Just tell us a little bit about how this decision was made. Did you make it individually, was there an editorial board? Did the parent corporation, Gannett, get involved?
HODIERNE: The parent corporation doesn't get involved in decisions like that at all. As far as I know, they don't get involved in any of the individual newspapers editorial decisions. I'm not even sure they were told before this editorial ran. It was made by the editors of Army Times Publishing Company, the four military papers. The publisher was involved in the decision. It's a collective effort. It's not one person's opinion.
M. O'BRIEN: Can you take us inside the debate? Was there a lot of debate about it?
HODIERNE: No, there really wasn't. It's pretty clear to us. That's all we think about all the time, is the military, and the way the war is going. It's pretty clear to us that the policies need some realignment. That's unlikely to happen as long as Secretary Rumsfeld occupies that position.
M. O'BRIEN: Robert Hodierne is senior managing editor of the "Army Times". Thanks for your time.
HODIERNE: Thank you, sir.
M. O'BRIEN: Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: Here's a look at some of the other stories we're following for you this morning. Disgraced Pastor Ted Haggard apologizes amid the shocking allegations by a male escort. How are the evangelical voters going to react?
And Saddam Hussein, one more chance to save his life. We'll tell you about the next step in his trial.
Plus, we continue to watch this fire at the Gatorland Theme Park in Florida. Those stories and much more ahead. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: He calls himself a liar and a deceiver. Disgraced Reverend Ted Haggard is apologizing, by letter, to his congregation. It was read to the congregation on Sunday. And Haggard admitted to a lifelong sexual problem. All this, of course, coming after the accusation of a three-year affair with a man, who said the reverend used meth amphetamines, too. CNN's Sean Callebs is in Colorado Springs, Colorado, with more for us this morning.
Good morning, Sean.
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN CORRESPONDENT, AMERICAN MORNING: Good morning, Soledad.
Indeed, the hierarchy here, at Haggard's former church, said they worked quickly trying to diffuse this scandal that quickly grabbed the nation's attention. The question now, heading into Tuesday's midterm election, what, if any, impact this will have as millions who call themselves evangelicals, are scheduled to head to the polls.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CALLEBS: Ted Haggard's long-time friend, and head of the oversight committee that removed him from the pulpit, the Reverend Larry Stockstill, read Haggard's mea culpa to the congregation.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The fact is I am guilty of sexual immorality, and I take responsibility for the entire problem. I am a deceiver and a liar. CALLEBS: Haggard has denied having a gay affair, but Stockstill has his doubts.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He developed a pattern of deception. That is why it took us so long to arrive at the truth. We still haven't.
CALLEBS: Mike Jones, the former gay prostitute, who made the allegations, tells CNN he now feels vindicated. Even though he failed a lie detector test when asked about his alleged three-year affair with Haggard. Jones tells CNN's he's willing to take another polygraph. Jones said he deliberately became public days before Tuesday's midterm election.
MIKE JONES, HAGGARD'S ACCUSER: I don't know how many minds I've changed. I don't know how many votes might have changed, but I still -- for my fellow community, friends -- I needed to bring this out.
CALLEBS: With the issue of gay marriage on the ballot in Colorado, and other states, Jones says he wants to show what he calls the hypocrisy of Haggard and other evangelicals. According to an academic, who studies the evangelical movement, this controversy is only one reason members of the religious right may feel disenfranchised.
RANDALL BALMER, PROF., AMERICAN RELIGION, COLUMBIA UNIV.: Add to that a growing discontent on the part of many evangelicals with both the Bush administration and the Republican Party, as well as the leadership of the religious right, and I think this is a big scandal.
CALLEBS: But some members of Haggard's former flock emerged from a Sunday service saying the scandal won't affect the way they vote.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think it's going to encourage more people to go to the poll. I certainly hope that's true.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CALLEBS: There are 60 million people in the United States that come under that broad umbrella of evangelicals. The stakes are high. The Republicans have always courted this voter over the past two decades, as they've been a powerful voting block.
Soledad, the question now, will they still be a sure bet tomorrow?
S. O'BRIEN: That is the question. We'll have to wait and see what the answer to that. Sean Callebs, for us this morning. Thanks, Sean.
Here's the stories we're following for you this morning. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld under fire again. An independent army newspaper says it's time for him to quit. We'll have more on that, straight ahead.
Plus a mystery at sea, the search for a missing cruise ship passenger continues this morning. We're back in just a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: Life or death? An appeals court will decide whether or not to execute Saddam Hussein. But this morning, some influential people around the world would like to keep him alive.
S. O'BRIEN: One day until the midterm elections and violence is still raging in Iraq. More Americans are still dying. Will the bloodshed there affect who is controlling Congress?
M. O'BRIEN: And a newspaper written for the military makes a big demand, it would like the Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld fired.
All that and more ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING.
S. O'BRIEN: Good morning. Welcome, everybody. Monday, November 6th. I'm Soledad O'Brien.
M. O'BRIEN: And I'm Miles O'Brien. Thanks for being with us.
In Iraq this morning, celebrations, recriminations, a curfew and a country even more divided. All this after the long-awaited verdict. An Iraqi judge sentencing Saddam Hussein to death.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): The court has sentenced the defendant Saddam Hussein to execution by hanging.
SADDAM HUSSEIN, FMR. IRAQI PRES.: Long live the people!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
M. O'BRIEN: As you can see, he didn't take it quietly, true to form, shouting, "God is great" and "Damn you and your court." Saddam Hussein once said he would prefer to be shot by a firing squad, but it is the gallows that await him pending an automatic appeal. So how long will that take, and what happens next?
CNN's Aneesh Raman has the answers for us from Baghdad.
Hello, Aneesh.
ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Miles, good morning.
Saddam's case already in an appellate court. It's an automatic process. It kicked off because Saddam got the death sentence. Within 30 days, the defense and prosecution must file any motions that they want to the appellate court, and that court can take as long as it wants to review this case.
But court officials have cautioned us, they don't think it will be a lengthy process. If the appellate court simply has to go through this docket, look at the paperwork. They can call some of the witnesses again, but the expectations are that they, perhaps, won't. This is a court, though, that has suffered, at times, from government interference, government pressure, explicitly in the press. The government could at some point early next year decide that enough is enough. The appellate process needs to move forward. And we've heard from court officials, that Saddam could be executed, could be hanged as early as next summer, and he can be hanged despite having these other trials in the process. He's currently amid a second trial, some 10 others awaiting him. He'll simply be tried in absentia for those if he is executed before they finish -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Aneesh, would it be a public hanging?
RAMAN: As far as I know, it would not. It would be carried out by Iraqis though. The minute that the appellate court upholds this verdict, Saddam transfers authority from being held in conjunction with the Iraqis and coalition forces to full Iraqi control, and it is the Iraqi security forces that would then carry that out.
M. O'BRIEN: Aneesh Raman in Baghdad. Thank you very much.
Many European nations are critical of the death sentence in this case, and some Islamic leaders are concerned that it will inflame anti-U.S. sentiment.
But in the president, in the midst of some 11th hour barnstorming for votes, sees it as a victory.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRES. OF THE UNITED STATES: Saddam Hussein's trial is a milestone in the Iraqi people's efforts to replace the rule of a tyrant with the rule of law. It's a major achievement for Iraq's young democracy and its constitutional government.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
M. O'BRIEN: Leading Democrats are praising the verdict, too, but are still strongly attacking the president's policy in Iraq.
(NEWSBREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: This morning, a day before Americans decide which party is going to control Congress, A final look at where the battle stands. New Opinion Research Corporation polls for CNN just released show 58 percent of likely voters, 54 percent of registered voters will vote Democrat. That could help the Democrat pick up 15 seats needed to regain the House and seats they need to control the Senate.
Meanwhile, the president's popularity is still low -- 61 percent disapprove of how the president is doing his job.
The election, of course, is going to be decided in those head-to- head contests, and some of them at this point are way too close to call. So let's take a look at how both sides see the campaign this morning. CNN political contributor and Democratic strategist James Carville is with us in New York. In Washington D.C., Republican strategist Charles Black is with us.
Nice to see you both. Thanks for joining us.
Let's begin with James Carville -- 24 hours to go. The race is tightening. More than even the last time we spoke a couple days ago. Realistically, is there anything that can be done at this point?
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIC: How's it tightening? You have it 58-38. Doesn't seem to be tight if we believe our poll -- it's 20 points.
S. O'BRIEN: In some of the specific races they're absolutely neck and neck.
CARVILLE: Probably about 20 points, pick up 300 seats. Some of them are very close, yes.
S. O'BRIEN: But my question is, what can realistically be done at this stage of the game?
CARVILLE: A lot of pacing. I mean, they're doing a lot of things. I'm not sure if it's going to matter, but it's not going to be for a lack of action in these campaign headquarters, I promise you that.
S. O'BRIEN: All right, let's say, Charles, let's say there's not a lack of action. The phone calls, going door to door, all of that. Does that actually end up working? Does it matter at this point?
CHARLES BLACK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Yes, it makes a huge difference. As you said, all these close races are going to decide control of the House and the Senate. Hundreds of thousands of volunteers are knocking on doors, making phone calls. Republicans have proven in the last several elections to have a superior get-out- the-vote effort. That's already showing up.
And by the way, all the national polls except the CNN polls show Republicans surging -- "Washington Post," "USA Today," "The Pew Research Foundation," all show Republicans gaining in the last few days. And the difference more like four to five points, rather than 20.
So our get-out-the-vote operation is kicking in. The fact that Republicans have more money in most of these close races. This is a dead heat. We might lose a few seats, but it looks like we'll keep control of the House and the Senate based on these numbers in these other polls.
S. O'BRIEN: I guess we'll know in 24 hours.
What? You want to add something to that?
CARVILLE: No. S. O'BRIEN: You're good?
BLACK: I'll play it like it lays. I'm pretty satisfied with it.
S. O'BRIEN: We've got a lot of action over here. Let me ask you, Charlie, about the Ted Haggard scandal. He now is saying he's a deceiver, he's a liar . Do you think that's something that motivates evangelicals to go to the polls, or do you think that's just, uh, one of those, another sex scandal; I'm going to stay home and not even bother to vote this year.
BLACK: I don't think it makes any difference whatsoever in the election. Most Americans never heard of him until last Friday. I never heard of him, and you probably didn't either. So it's not going to affect the election. In fact, evangelical voters are intense in their desire to vote this time. The great majority of them will vote for Republicans in these close races.
CARVILLE: I like the way these guys throw everybody overboard. He's on the phone every Monday to the White House. He's the president of the National Association of Evangelicals and nobody's ever heard of the guy.
BLACK: Had you ever heard of him, James?
CARVILLE: Who is this guy. We've never heard of him, but he's on the phone with us every Monday, but we've never heard of him.
S. O'BRIEN: It's an association that has 30 million people with it, so I can buy that argument.
Let me ask you a question, James. In addition to the Ted Haggard scandal, you have Saddam Hussein sentenced to death by hanging, "The Army Times" now calling for Secretary Rumsfeld's ouster. Do you think any of those things are going to play any kind of role in the election?
CARVILLE: I think the biggest role is vice president Cheney saying full speed ahead, stay the course, we don't care what public opinion says. And clearly the Republicans, and the president, and the vice president, secretary of defense are saying, we've got blinders on, we're going down the course, we're not changing no matter what, and I don't think that's what the voters want to hear. And The Army Times," "The Marine Corps Paper" -- we've had I don't how many general officers called for Rumsfeld to resign. But Vice President Cheney has quite signaled us that is their intent to stay the course. Now Tuesday, if you don't like the course, you have a chance, you can vote these people out and get a change of course in Iraq.
S. O'BRIEN: Charlie, what do you think about that? You've already weighed in on the Ted Haggard scandal. But Saddam Hussein, "The Army Times."
CARVILLE: Maybe Charlie hasn't heard of Rumsfeld.
BLACK: Well, Iraq's an important issue, but "The Army Times" is not going to convince soldiers to vote with John Kerry against the Republicans who value and support the troops.
Now, the fact is Iraq is an important issue, but the economy is booming. We have the lowest unemployment in five years, more take- home pay, lower gas price, as Miles just noted. If the Democrats get control and increase taxes, the good economy will be a thing of the past, and the voters are wising up to that, and that's why Republicans are surging in the polls in these close races.
S. O'BRIEN: All right. I guess we're just going to have wait to see. Charles Black and James Carville, as always, gentlemen, thank you very much.
CARVILLE: Appreciate it.
BLACK: Thank you, Soledad.
Go to CNN.com's pipeline. It's free today. That's right, zero dollars. the voters are wising up to that.
We'll wait to see. Charles black and James Carville, thank you very much.
Appreciate it.
Thank you, Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: To help you keep up with campaign events, you can go to CNN.com's Pipeline. It's free today. That's right, free -- zero dollars. Keep track of the candidates' comings and goings on CNN Pipeline's multiple live video streams, video archives, and also the on-demand news clips. You want to stay with us tonight as the best political team on TV, along with Wolf and Anderson, and Larry, and Paula and Lou all take a look at how your vote could affect the war in Iraq and who controls Congress.
Our election special begins tonight at 7:00 p.m. Eastern -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Coming up on the program, the search for a missing cruise ship passenger. Fellow travelers tell investigator what they saw before he disappeared.
Plus, more of the Ted Haggard scandal. Can evangelical leaders convince followers that they practice what they preach? We'll take a look, ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(WEATHER REPORT)
M. O'BRIEN: It is an axiom of politics. The incumbent has the advantage. So to win, a challenger has to have a lot of cash, money, the mother's milk of politics, they say.
AMERICAN MORNING's Ali Velshi is here now, and he's running.
You got my vote, Ali.
ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is what it's going to come down to. If you don't have enough money to run, if you're a challenger, you're challenging an incumbent, you're going to have to make your own signs. It is very expensive for a challenger to beat an incumbent. Look at 2004. There are 435 seats in the House. We all know about this. Four-hundred and one incumbents ran in 2004, 396 of them won -- 99 percent success rate. That big blowout in 1994, 402 incumbents ran; 90 percent of them won.
M. O'BRIEN: And that's a blowout.
VELSHI: Ten percent?
M. O'BRIEN: Now, there are a larger percentage of constituencies in play this election. So it could actually be closer to 80 percent, depending on how things play out, but one of the things that matter is money. Back in 2004, those four challengers who beat incumbents, all outspent the incumbents. They all spent an average of $2 million. This is in the House; the Senate's another story. It's many million dollars more. But in the House, $2 million for a challenger, $1.6 million for those incumbents.
M. O'BRIEN: So everyone that beats an incumbent spends more.
VELSHI: That's correct. That's what the statistics seem to show.
Right now, we are looking at 402 incumbents running tomorrow. Forty-six of the incumbents are in what you might call competitive races. So there is an opportunity to break the back of that right now and to get challengers back in the race.
M. O'BRIEN: So all this money, a lot of money out there, where's it all going?
VELSHI: Advertising.
(CROSSTALK)
M. O'BRIEN: Not signs like these.
VELSHI: See, that's the problem. The signs like this fall in the other category. That's not much of it -- 54 percent goes to television, 23 percent to direct mail, 8 percent to radio, 4 percent to newspaper and 11 percent is other, brochures, cheap signs like this, that sort of things.
And it is, by the way -- there's a correlation between candidates who raise a lot of money, rather than candidates who finance their own money. It's not just having the money. There's some sense that if you have the ability to get people to part with their money and give it to your campaign, you might have the ability to get people to vote for you, too.
M. O'BRIEN: So if you're sitting on a pile of money of your own, that could may be a disadvantage somewhat.
VELSHI: It could be, because you're not getting a sense of whether or not you're succeeding in the fund-raising.
I want to give you one example, New Mexico, back in 2004 it was one of the most expensive races in the country. Incumbent Heather Wilson spent almost $3.4 million to win that seat in the Albuquerque area. Her Democratic challenger spent about $2 million, so they spent over $5 million. She's now running for a fifth term, and she's already spent $3.7 million against this woman, Patricia Madrid, who's already spent $2.5 million, and that race is still a tossup.
M. O'BRIEN: I would think individual payments to voters in the district.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: Who sends the bigger check.
We didn't just say that. We didn't advocate that.
M. O'BRIEN: No, it's just a thought.
All right, thank you, Ali.
S. O'BRIEN: Might save you some dough, though, at end of the day.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: Does this work, by the way? Is anybody going to vote for me?
M. O'BRIEN: You've got our votes. That's two right here, plus the crew.
S. O'BRIEN: Speak for yourself, Miles. I'm still working on it. I'm undecided.
M. O'BRIEN: Coming up this morning, how does fingerprinting the kiddies speed up the lunch line in an elementary school. We're going to tell you why some parents in Santa Barbara are furious about a new plan. That's straight ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(NEWSBREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: Stories we're following for you this morning, disgraced pastor Ted Haggard says he's sorry, but will it be enough to reassure evangelicals shaken by the scandal? We'll take a look.
And Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on the hot seat once again. We'll tell you who is calling for him to quit now. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) (BUSINESS HEADLINES)
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