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American Morning

Will President Bush's Efforts Help Lead his Party to Victory?; Connecticut Senate Race; Ohio Senate Race; Getting the Count Right

Aired November 07, 2006 - 07:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Election Day USA. Americans are now voting in one of the most closely contested midterm elections in recent memory. We're live across the country this morning.
M. O'BRIEN: And a big test for electronic voting machines in use in a number of states today. Have the wrinkles and glitches been worked out?

S. O'BRIEN: And defeated as a Democrat, Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman is counting on a new label to get him back to Washington.

Those stories and much more ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING.

Welcome, everybody.

It is Tuesday, November 7th, Election Day.

I'm Soledad O'Brien.

M. O'BRIEN: And I'm Miles O'Brien.

Thanks for being with us.

S. O'BRIEN: Here's what's happening at this hour.

Americans are lining up at precincts across the country, and that includes voters like President Bush and many of the candidates, of course, themselves. They cast their ballots today.

Even though the president is not on the ballot, he is casting a huge shadows on all of the races. And at this hour, 8:00 Eastern Time, the polls are already open in more than half of the U.S.

Another 10 states from Alabama to North Dakota opening the doors right now at precincts. And at issue, of course, is control of Congress.

Republicans currently in charge of both the House and the Senate. They need to hang on to six key states -- seats, rather, to prevent the Democrats from taking over. And every seat in the House, obviously, is up for grabs today. Democrats need to pick up 15 seats if they want to take control for the first time in 12 years -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: You might as well put your clicker away because this is the place to stay all throughout the day. Let's take a look at some of the reporters we have all throughout the nation in the key battle states watching these elections for you.

Elaine Quijano in Crawford, Texas. The president will vote there very soon. He'll make his way back to Washington.

Brian Todd in Bowie, Maryland. He's looking at the issues with those touch-screen voting systems in Maryland. They know all too well how things can go awry with those.

Dan Lothian is in Connecticut. That's a Senate race to watch there, for sure.

Bob Franken in Columbus, Ohio. Another close Senate race we're watching very closely.

John Zarrella is in Jupiter, Florida. That's in the seat that was once held by Mark Foley. That's turning out to be a very close race, indeed, and one we're watching as well.

We have got reporters in all these places for you to keep you posted.

Let's begin -- what an all-star team we have here. Let's begin with Elaine Quijano in Crawford.

Elaine, what's going on there this morning?

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Miles.

Well, after five days of barnstorming through 11 cities and 10 states, President Bush learns today whether his efforts and his policies helped lead his party to victory.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

QUIJANO (voice over): President Bush delivered the final rallying cry for his party from his home state of Texas, exhorting the faithful to turn out at the polls.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My encouragement to you is to go out and keep dialing and get people to the polls. Send Rick Perry back to the governor's office, and the state will be better off for it.

QUIJANO: But falling approval numbers and the unpopularity of the Iraq war created a dilemma for candidates in close races: to be seen or not to be seen with the president. That came to a head Monday in Florida.

Republican Charles Crist, seeking to succeed the president's brother, Jeb Bush, as Florida governor, passed on appearing on the same stage with the president at a rally in the conservative bastion of Pensacola. It's an area of Florida the Crist campaign believes it has secured.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: We have to get out the vote. QUIJANO: Instead, Crist campaigned in Jacksonville with Senator John McCain, a possible 2008 presidential candidate. Senior administration officials downplayed Crist's absence. But Karl Rove was a little more terse in his response.

KARL ROVE, SR. WHITE HOUSE ADVISER: Let's see how many people show up in Palm Beach on 24 hours' notice versus 8,000 or 9,000 people in Pensacola.

QUIJANO: And Mr. Bush took the snub in stride.

BUSH: And I strongly suggest you vote for Charlie Crist to be governor of the state of Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUIJANO: As for this morning, President Bush is set to cast his vote this hour. In fact, we understand in perhaps just the next few minutes or so before returning to Washington later today to await the election results -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Elaine Quijano in Crawford.

Thank you -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Well, today could be the start of something new for Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman. The voters are deciding today whether they're going to send him back to the Senate as an Independent. Lieberman is running against Ned Lamont, who beat Senator Lieberman in the Connecticut primary.

AMERICAN MORNING'S Dan Lothian is live for us in Hartford, Connecticut, this morning.

Dan, good morning.

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

Well, it has been a unique Senate race and it has been an interesting political season here in the state of Connecticut. The secretary of state's office believing that this could be a time of heavy voter turnout. In fact, they're expecting it could reach 66 percent.

If that is the case, it will be the highest voter -- statewide voter turnout in 16 years. The reason? Because there are some key House races and, of course, that one competitive Senate race.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LOTHIAN (voice over): Joe Lieberman may be the odds-on favorite running as an Independent, but he's still sprinting to the finish line.

SEN. JOSEPH LIEBERMAN (D), CONNECTICUT: I don't want my supporters to think that this is over and going to stay home or decide they want to throw a vote to somebody else for some symbolic reason.

LOTHIAN: Meeting with workers at a utility company, Lieberman painted his Democratic opponent, Ned Lamont, as a one-issue candidate and a partisan polarizer.

LIEBERMAN: That does get in the way of us getting something done for you, the people.

NED LAMONT (D), SENATE CANDIDATE: I'll remember each and every one of you guys.

LOTHIAN: Lamont, a wealthy businessman who beat Lieberman in the August Democratic primary, put in the final miles of his campaign bus tour, trying to convince voters he's the right candidate for real change.

LAMONT: Look at the crowds that are coming out. People fundamentally want a real change in how we're doing business in Washington.

LOTHIAN: Speaking to union workers, Lamont returned to the central theme of his campaign, the war in Iraq.

LAMONT: This war is wrong, it's hurting our country at home. It's hurting our country abroad. It's time to bring our troops home.

LOTHIAN: The Republican in the Senate race, Alan Schlesinger, has not been a big factor. That, say political analysts, has helped Lieberman, who's attracting support from Republicans.

PROF. KEN DAUTRICH, UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT: He's identified as a Democrat, but an Independent Democrat. And so his voice rises above partisan politics.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LOTHIAN: The polls here in Connecticut opened at 6:00 a.m. Eastern Time, will be closing at 8:00 tonight -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Dan Lothian for us this morning.

Thank you, Dan.

Now to battleground Ohio, where voters are already lining up to have their say. The state that gave President Bush his reelection back in 2004 could be giving some of his adviser heartburn today.

Republican incumbent Mike DeWine is fighting to save his Senate seat against Democrat Sherrod Brown.

AMERICAN MORNING'S Bob Franken in Columbus for us this morning.

Good morning to you, Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad. And it's not only Mike DeWine, the senator. Republicans are concerned about five of the state's 22 congressional districts. And there has been a big voter turnout.

Both parties are saying that they want that large turnout and have invested huge resources. You can see at this polling place in Columbus, Ohio, that there is a substantial presence. It's been that way since the polls opened at 6:30 this morning. There have been lines to get to the electronic machines.

Now, the ones in Franklin County, Ohio, are the less controversial of the brands, but in many parts of the state, particularly the Cleveland area, there have been problems in the past. And there is a concern again that with some confusing voter identification laws and with some underperformance on the part of these machines, that election results could be delayed.

But assuming for the moment that they come in on time, we should have a very clear idea about the nation from this bellwether state whether the Republicans are able to pull off what would be a significant upset or whether they're going to suffer the kind of damaging injury that the party is predicted to suffer if the polls are correct, and could, of course, concern the control of Congress -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Bob Franken for us this morning.

Thank you, Bob -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: In Maryland, voters are going to the polls without complete confidence in their vote-counting systems. New electronic voting machines were a complete fiasco during the primary elections in September. The question is, is the system fixed as voters there weigh in on a very tight Senate race?

CNN's Brian Todd live now from Bowie, Maryland, with more -- Brian.

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Miles, here it's gone very smoothly so far. The voting at this station and at stations right near here is all touch screen. And an election judge just told me no problems yet.

The polls have been opened now for about an hour. But still, as you mentioned, the concerns about what happened on Primary Day have sparked a lot of worries here and throughout the country.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (voice over): Touch screen or optical scan, how you vote, how it's counted, a huge issue in this election because of the problem some of these machines have presented in recent cycles. Listen to how one expert compares this equipment to machines that handle much more volume.

KENNETH GROSS, ELECTION LAW ATTORNEY: It still amazes me that the machines are freezing up on Election Day, but I've never gotten more than the exact amount of $20 bills that I've asked for when I put my card in the ATM machine.

TODD: There are a few companies that make electronic voting machines. Experts tell CNN many of the problems are the result of simple technical breakdowns. But activists also charge that those companies don't adequately secure the machines, making them vulnerable to hackers. And they say there's little oversight on the manufacturing.

CHELLIE PINGREE, COMMON CAUSE: We're already worried about the auditability (ph) standards, about our inability to get access to what the proprietary codes are. In a sense, nobody knows and nobody regulates what goes on in these machines.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD: Still, the companies that make these machines continue to insist that their systems are accurate and secure. Experts tell us that there is no widespread evidence of tampering in any of these machines throughout the country.

One thing to take note of here in Maryland, though, because of the problems on Primary Day Governor Bob Ehrlich has encouraged voters to vote absentee. And in a close election, that's going to be an issue here, because absentee ballots, we're told, are not going to even begin to be counted until this Thursday. Provisional ballots won't begin to be counted until next week.

A final tally will not be until the end of next week. So for close elections, if provisional and absentee ballots are used, you may not see results until the end of next week -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. Brian Todd in Bowie, Maryland.

Thank you -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Happening this morning, traffic is back on the streets of Baghdad. The Iraqi government lifted the two-day around- the-clock curfew that was imposed to prevent violence following the sentencing of Saddam Hussein. The former Iraqi president was sentenced to hang for his role in mass killings after a 1982 assassination attempt.

Palestinian militants today reportedly fired a rocket into southern Israel from the Gaza town of Beit Hanoun just hours after Israel said its six-day operation to clear out militants was ending. The Israeli army says about 50 Palestinians died in those raids.

In Washington State, heavy rains and floods killed one man and prompted the governor to declare a state of emergency. A 20-year-old man died when floods swept his pickup truck into a river.

In southern California, firefighters are hoping that winds will die down so that they can get control of the Rialto brushfire. It burned 600 acres, more or less, threatened schools and homes Rialto is just about 6 0 miles east of L.A.

Other stories we're following for you this morning on this Election Day.

Polls are open, and after you cast your vote you can watch as the day unfolds. Take a look at some of the key races and the timelines as well.

Plus, which party will win the battle of voter turnout? We're going to take a closer look straight ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

We're back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: Welcome back. Some of the day's stop stories we're looking at.

The polls now open in three dozen states. Voters will decide today whether Republicans or Democrats control Congress.

A subdued Saddam Hussein back in court for his second trial. This is his first public appearance since Sunday when he was sentenced to death by hanging in another genocide case.

Fourteen minutes past the hour. About to head out the door? Let's get a quick check of the travelers' forecast at the voters' forecast, too. Chad's got that.

Good morning.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Soledad.

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: The Justice Department has hundreds of agents out making sure that every vote actually is counted.

AMERICAN MORNING'S Ali Velshi is monitoring some possible problems at polling stations around the country this morning.

Hey, Ali. Good morning.

ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Soledad, it didn't take long for the problems to start flowing in. We are monitoring issues at polling stations across the country. And there seems to be more than the average number coming out of Indiana now.

One problem that we are on top of at the moment is that in Delaware County, which is in the Muncie area, 70 polling stations were not open this morning because of problems with the company that handles the electronic voting machines. Apparently the software was not loaded properly.

As of a little while ago, more than half of those polling stations had still not opened. And the Board of Electors representative we just spoke to said they are phoning individual stations one by one to get the problems sorted out. But they are going to court to get voting extended past the 6:00 p.m. local time, 7:00 p.m. deadline today.

So we will probably see longer voting in Indiana today.

S. O'BRIEN: All right. Ali Velshi for us this morning.

Thanks, Ali, for the update -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: As Ali alluded to, polls are already open across much of the country right now, certainly the East Coast. We want to know what to watch for tonight.

There are some key races, obviously. We've been telling you about this. But what's nice on Election Day is to sort of get a sense of what the experts will be watching for and when they will be watching for it.

Our chief national correspondent, John King, joins us now to give us kind of a viewer's guide.

John, good to have you with us.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Go out on the street and find an expert?

M. O'BRIEN: You're the man. You're the man today.

Let's start -- all right, let's, first of all, move in. This is kind of our running tally here. We'll kind of move in here, and we're going to look at some of the key seats here right now. And, of course, Virginia is one. And we're probably going to know about this relatively early in the evening, you think, or...

KING: Well, we'll get early results.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes.

KING: The cities in Virginia, northern Virginia results should come in pretty quickly after the polls close. The question is, if this is very, very close, then you're waiting for the votes in rural Virginia, down by North Carolina, down by Tennessee, votes that should go to Senator Allen. If they're coming in for the Democrat, it would be a good night for Mr. Webb.

So, this one could be key to which party controls the Senate. You wait. Most races do break in the end.

We say close race, close race, close race. They tend to break in the end. We'll see how quick that comes in. But if you're waiting for the rural votes, you can be up late.

M. O'BRIEN: Historically, of course, Virginia is red state country. If you see Jim Webb doing strongly there, that's a big deal, isn't it? KING: That's a big deal, and Republicans will be worried in other places like Tennessee, where they have another competitive race in a southern state that they usually win.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. That's the current balance of power in the House of Representatives. Those numbers will change probably, very likely throughout the course of the day.

Let's talk about Indiana and what we might see there. That's a state you're interested in.

KING: Indiana is a great place for an early test. Dana Bash was there over the weekend. You have three Republican seats, all of them at risk of being knocked off by Democrats.

The polls close there quite early. By 7:00 Eastern Time we could know. If two or three of those Republicans lose, then Republicans will have a very tough night.

If they are losing in a red state like Indiana, they are in for a tough night across the country. Because if they're losing there, guess what? They're probably losing everywhere else.

The flip side is, if they hold two or even all three of those seats, that tells you conservatives are coming out and they're voting Republican. And there could be a lesson there, too.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. Get that microphone fixed and we'll get back to the Senate and take a look there. And we're talking about Ohio now.

Ohio is an interesting one to watch. The numbers there still very close. Let's pull it up. There's the Ohio Senate race.

DeWine versus Brown. This -- when will we have results on this and what should we be looking for there?

KING: We should get results pretty quick in Ohio. And the thing to look for here is whether Sherrod Brown can hold this seat. And if he does, Chuck Schumer, the senator from this state, will get a lot of credit. Because remember back at the beginning of the year a guy named Paul Hackett (ph), an Iraq war veteran who had run for Congress last time and just lost, he was the leading candidate in that race.

And Chuck Schumer went to Ohio and said get out. We want Sherrod Brown in that race because we think he's a better statewide candidate. A lot of people thought with Iraq the big issue this year, that was a mistake. It turns out it was probably a very smart decision.

Sherrod Brown has run a very disciplined campaign. He's favored to win.

M. O'BRIEN: And what about -- what about House seats in Ohio? Anything specific there to look for?

KING: Deborah Pryce is a Republican member of the leadership, a big call-up (ph), a good friend of Mark Foley, a little bit caught up in that scandal. But the issue in Ohio, we're going to talk about a lot of national issues tonight, the Iraq war, perhaps some few races where you see the Foley scandal is an impact. In Ohio, the governor is embroiled in a scandal, Bob Ney -- the congresswoman is embroiled in a scandal.

Ohio is the cesspool of American politics this year. There's a lot of local issues in addition to the Iraq war.

M. O'BRIEN: I'm sure they really appreciate you saying that in Ohio this morning, but, you know, just the facts, ma'am.

KING: The e-mails will come in.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. Let's go to Missouri. This is something to watch. This is the closest Senate race by the polls, right?

KING: The closest Senate race by the polls in a state that is probably the most bellwether of the country. You have the urban areas of Kansas City and St. Louis, you have the Bible Belt down by Joplin and Springfield.

This is a key test of President Bush. He went in to help Senator Talent in the end down in southern Missouri, trying to turn out Christian conservatives.

Again, could tip the balance of power in the Senate. It is a key test of turnout. Claire McCaskill -- the stem cell issue another issue in that race. But this is one to watch. We're talking all along about turnout, turnout, turnout. If Christian conservatives turn out in southwest Missouri, Senator Talent will come back to the Senate and the Republicans most likely will keep control.

M. O'BRIEN: That's a pretty good viewing guide. And just for the record, exit polling data is always a controversial issue. We're not going to be talking about that at all during the course of the day.

KING: No. We are locking everyone into a vault and it is because of the lessons learned. And I will say the mistakes made in past elections.

Number one, we've had problems with the data. And the data was released and put out and leaked in some cases.

M. O'BRIEN: And was wrong.

KING: And in the age of the Internet, with all these blogs, all these Web sites, it got out during the day. And most of the country thought John Kerry was president back in 2004...

M. O'BRIEN: Yes.

KING: ... because the early exit polls, which were wrong, they weren't weighted right, got out and were released. This year everyone's locked in their rooms until 5:00. No cell phones, no Blackberrys. The computers have had all the communications technology taken out of them.

We're going back into the Luddite age, if you will. And God forbid, Miles, we're going to let people vote.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, let's do that. I think that's a good way to end it, let's let the voters vote.

All right. John King, thank you very much. Great viewing guide. I'm not going to keep that in mind as I watch throughout the night, although I'm not going to be able to stay up too late.

Chief National Correspondent John King is part of the best political team on television -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Straight ahead this morning, Andy is "Minding Your Business". Is the $2 bill about to make a big comeback? We'll take a look straight ahead.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: There you're looking at pictures just taken moments ago of President Bush and his wife, the first lady, Laura Bush, as they emerge from voting in his home state of Texas.

Let's listen in to what he had to say.

BUSH: And our government is only as good as the willingness of our people to participate in it. And therefore, no matter what your party affiliation, or if you don't have a party affiliation, do your duty, cast your ballot, and let your voice be heard.

And so we thank you for -- we thank you for being a good citizen. It's good to be here voting in Texas. We're going to be heading back up to Washington here pretty soon and watch the -- watch the results.

Appreciate it. Thank you all.

S. O'BRIEN: Ignoring that question and moving on as, again, the president and the first lady wrap up their voting in the president's home state of Texas.

Elaine Quijano is traveling with the president. We'll be checking in with her throughout the morning -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: I bet he voted Republican. That would be my best guess on that one.

(BUSINESS REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: Stories we're following for you this morning.

President Bush and the midterm elections. Will his last-minute campaigning be enough to keep Republicans in control of Congress?

And the impact of the Mark Foley page scandal. Suddenly the race for his old seat is red hot.

As we go to break, some thoughts on the election.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The war in Iraq has been a big one for me. I've been disappointed in what I think is the Republican fiscal irresponsibility of running up the deficit to such a huge amount. So those were two particular issues of concern to me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: Well, there are debates, and ads and all those nasty commercials. It's almost over. Election Day is finally here. So what really are the issues that have shaped all the races.

Joining us this morning from Washington D.C. Is CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein. He's also, of course, columnist for "The L.A. Times."

Nice to see you, as always. Thanks for talking with us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POL. ANALYST: Good morning, Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Good morning to you.

BROWNSTEIN: Let's get right to it. Republicans have really been focused squarely on energizing the base. So what do you think the role of the swing voter is going to be this midterm election?

S. O'BRIEN: Well, that's one of the critical questions. From the outset, the cornerstone of President Bush's political strategy has been energizing and unifying the Republican base, and that's what he's been focused on in these last few weeks, appearing in very Republican parts of the country with a very sharp partisan message, accusing Democrats of being tax-and-spend liberals, who's run the white flag up in the war on terror.

Now, in the past, this has been a very successful strategy for them. In '02 and '04, a big surge of Republican turnout helped them make the gains in '02 and his re-election in '04. But this time they are facing significant deficit with swing voters in many parts of the country, especially Democratic-leaning parts of the country, and it's not clear that mobilizing the base by itself is going to be enough to overcome that. It's going to be a challenge to their political vision if it plays out that way. Because the assumption of the White House has been that there are very few voters who really are swing voters anymore.

S. O'BRIEN: So let's say the Democrats, hypothetically speaking, the Democrats win 14 seats, so their one shy of actually taking the House. What is specifically, literally the impact? BROWNSTEIN: Jonestown? I think that you'd see a lot of Democratic despair if they do not get to the House this year, because you're never going to have a more favorable climate. And what this is really testing is the degree to which the country has been locked down into competing spheres of influence. To win the House by a more than a narrow majority and to win the Senate at all, Democrats have to do something they really have not been able to do in the Bush era, which is win red-leaning Republican districts and states.

And so if you look at the overall national climate, with two- thirds of the country saying we're on the wrong track, the president's approval only at 40 percent, big anxiety over the war in Iraq, if you're a Democrat, you have to say if I can't win, if we can't win in Missouri, or Montana or some of the congressional districts in Indiana now, when can we win? So I think it's actually a very important election for them, and it will tell us the degree to which these partisan loyalties really are etched in stone and not really susceptible to being changed by events.

S. O'BRIEN: Kind of now or never. Let's say the Democrats win 15 seats, specifically, literally, how would things change?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, the Democrats will have a majority in the house. You're going to see, I think, two big changes in the political environment, or in the State. First, most obvious, the ability to conduct oversight. The Republican majority has viewed themselves almost as part of a parliamentary team, rather than a separate branch of government, and they really have not pressed the Bush administration on oversight. You'd see a lot of hearings, and probably subpoenas on issues like Iraq, environmental protection, domestic decisions, the reconstruction of Iraq and so forth.

The second thing that a Democratic takeover would allow them to do is to define themselves on their own terms. Really for the last six years, Democrats have been in a reactive mode, and they've been defined almost entirely by their reaction to, and usually opposition to, Bush initiatives. This would allow them to put ideas like raising the minimum wage, allowing Medicare to negotiate directly for lower drug prices, onto the agenda and force the Republicans to react to their priorities, and thus shape the way the campaign dialogue is evolving for 2008.

S. O'BRIEN: Let's skip ahead 24 hours hypothetically -- what do you think the big headline is tomorrow morning? Is it the scandal had the most weight? Is it Iraq had the most weight? Was it voter turnout? Was it the swing voters? What's the headline?

BROWNSTEIN: That's a really good question.

S. O'BRIEN: I know you hate predictions.

BROWNSTEIN: I think you'll see a couple of those things. First of all, one hallmark of the Bush era, is passionate engagement for and against him, and I think we're going to see that tomorrow. In a Gallup poll released this week, they said they found more Americans saying they were absolutely certain to vote than in any midterms since they've been conducting polls, which is half a century. So I think we are going to see a lot of people come out. It would be very surprising if Democrats don't take the House. And I think the key question will be the Senate.

I think the key question tomorrow will be, how does President Bush react to this changed environment? Where do the Democrats go? Does he -- if Democrats do take either house, does he want to find a way to reach more consensus with them, or does he hold to the kind of strategies he's had in the last few weeks of this election, which is using the Democrats as a foil and creating a very polarizing sharp choice.

S. O'BRIEN: Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst, and also "L.A. Times" columnist. We'll see how that prediction went tomorrow morning. Thanks, Ron.

BROWNSTEIN: Enjoy the election, Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Yes, I always do.

CNN primetime tonight beginning at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Paula Zahn, Lou Dobbs lead the best political team on TV, and you're votes are counted. The races, the results, the ramifications, all tonight, beginning tonight at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

(NEWSBREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: Some other stories we're following for you this morning, the congressional race in Mark Foley's old district. We're going to see how the Republican who was picked to replace Foley went from double-digit underdog to a bonafide contender.

And we'll take a look at what baby eats now and how that's affecting how they'll do in school later. Some news this morning about one crucial ingredient.

Dr. Sanjay Gupta has that, straight ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: The Mark Foley page scandal may very well end up as a turning point in the campaign. But down in Foley's old district, it's no longer a runaway race for the Democratic challenger.

CNN's John Zarrella has more for us this morning from Jupiter, Florida.

Hey, John. Good morning.

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Soledad. I understand the replay official has just upheld the call on the field. So we're fine for Chad on that. This is a very, very tight race. You know, five weeks ago after the Mark Foley scandal broke, a lot of experts were saying there was no way the Republicans could hold onto the seat, which they've held for a quarter of a century. Republicans say they never believed that. They always thought that this race was winnable. They poured millions of dollars into the race. And now on voting day, both candidates, the Republican and the Democrat, are claiming they will win.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In the final hours before Election Day, Republican Joe Negron campaigned for votes at a busy intersection. A month ago Negon's political future intersected with the political demise of Congressman Mark Foley. Handpicked by the Republican Party to replace Foley, many experts felt there was no way Negron could overcome the congressional page scandal. But in four weeks, Negron has gone from no shot to long shot to a real shot.

JOE NEGRON (R), CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: And this is a conservative district, and we want change, but we want conservative change. And so that's one reason I think this campaign has really taken off.

ZARRELLA: In a district encompassing eight counties, from the west coast to the east coast, Negron and his Democratic opponent Tim Mahoney have put in a lot of miles.

Mahoney has seen his double-digit lead evaporate, but still believes people will vote for change.

TIM MAHONEY (D), CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: If you think that we can do better, if you think that we can work together better in Washington, we can restore our values, I'm the person that's going to go up there and make those changes.

ZARRELLA: Bottom line, this election is likely to be much closer than either party thought just a month ago.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZARRELLA: Now, Mark Foley's name remains on the ballot here in the 16th congressional district. We can take a look at the electronic ballot in Palm Beach County. You can see Mark Foley's name there. The Republicans say the folks here are smart enough to figure it out, that they know that a vote for Foley is actually a vote for Negron. In fact, they came out with a slogan that said, "punch Foley for Negron." And of course if people are still confused when they come here to the polls, they can ask the election workers for clarification, and they will be given a sheet of paper, which says, "a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron. A vote for Mahoney is a vote for Mahoney. And a vote for the independent candidate is a vote for the independent candidate." I think that's pretty clear -- Soledad. S. O'BRIEN: Yes, or maybe a little confusing still for some people. Thank you, John Zarrella, in Jupiter, Florida this morning. Appreciate that.

"CNN NEWSROOM" Just a couple minutes away. And Heidi Collins is the CNN Center with a look at what's ahead this morning.

Hey, Heidi, good morning.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you, Soledad. We do have quite a few stories to look at in the "NEWSROOM" this morning. Voters' choice -- at stake this Election Day, control of Congress in the final two years of the Bush presidency. In fact, two Congressmen with a personal stake in the Iraq War, their sons are on the front lines this Election Day.

And our Larry King, check this out. He's going to be talking with us right here in the NEWSROOM live from the Beverly Hills breakfast crowd as they chew on election issues with their scrambled eggs baked salmon, and maybe a bagel or two. Join Tony Harris and me in the NEWSROOM.

We get started at the top of the hour right here on CNN -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: All right, Heidi, thank you -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Coming up on the program, news about baby food, what your child needs now to learn more in school later.

Dr. Sanjay Gupta has some food for thought for us ahead.

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M. O'BRIEN: At the risk of sounding like an old Geritol commercial, it is time for us to talk about iron-poor blood. And while the 1950s ads depicted a tired, rundown housewife, in the real world, a lack of iron could mean your kid won't get into Harvard.

Our senior medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta joins us from CNN Center with more on this.

Hello, Sanjay.

SANJAY GUPTA, CNN SR. MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Miles.

Yes, really interesting study coming out today. We've known for some time that not getting enough iron is the most common nutritional deficiency, especially among pregnant women and young children. And we've also known for some time that -- what iron does, which transports oxygen through the body to red blood cells, obviously an important function. And that children, young children, who don't have enough iron might be more at risk for behavioral problems and developmental delay. But a new study coming out today says an iron-deficient infant could have significant problems later on in life. This study actually 19 years in the making. They actually looked at 19-year-old children, and found that if they were iron deficient as infants, they were more likely to have problems with learning, with behavior, with developmental problems, even much further along in life. Really interesting. Again, this has been a long-term study.

They also found that it was most pronounced in poor children, in immigrant children, most likely because of lack of resources and lack of education about this problem. But again, lack of iron as a young child, as an infant, long-standing ramifications later on down the line.

M. O'BRIEN: So, Sanjay, everybody wants to know. How can you make sure your infant is getting enough iron? Should you put a little Geritol in the bottle or what?

GUPTA: Well, no. There's actually some pretty simple fixes here. So if you're hearing this and you're worried about it, there's a couple of things that you can do right away. When it comes to very young children, breast-feeding, we talk a lot about this, exclusive breast-feeding, if you can do that, between the ages of 0 and 4 to 6 months. A lot of moms can't, in which case formula is fine. Look to make sure that it's iron-fortified formula. That's important, as far as overcoming iron deficiency.

Beyond that, when you're talking about six months plus, look for things that have two-plus servings per day of iron-fortified cereal. There's all kinds of cereals out there. Again, really look for this iron fortification. It's important. Also increasing Vitamin C-rich foods also helps aid iron absorption. So another important thing to point about that, a lot of kids -- and you know, I'm a new dad myself, as you know, Miles, going exclusively to cow's milk. Cow's mile usually does not usually have enough iron in it.

So if you're switching the child over to cow's milk early on, make sure they're getting iron-rich foods as well in addition to that.

M. O'BRIEN: So what would the symptoms be, thought, if you thought maybe your baby was iron deficient? What would you look for?

GUPTA: It can be hard to tell. And there's no specific sort of thing that you'd see, well, he or she is definitely iron deficient. They might look a little bit more pale because they have anemia. But as compared to what, it's hard to say. A blood test at age 9 to 12 months can give you a better sense. Actually they test the blood, and they find out how much oxygen is actually in those red blood cells. That'll give them an idea.

M. O'BRIEN: Sanjay Gupta, our steely-eyed brain surgeon, always a pleasure having you drop by -- Sanjay.

S. O'BRIEN: All in a day's work for Sanjay.

Coming up at the top of the hour, much more on those federal election monitors, who are now spreading out across the nation at polling places. They're looking for election day mischief. We'll update you on that story.

And Vice President Dick Cheney's special Election Day hunting trip. Yes.

Stay with us. We're back in a moment.

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