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American Morning
Montana Senate Race; Democrats' Plan; Change in Iraq?
Aired November 08, 2006 - 06:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Nancy Pelosi this morning. She's expected to become the first female speaker of the House. We'll going to hear from him at a news conference which is set for 1:00 this afternoon. So we'll keep you updated as the results continue to come in throughout the morning. We've got reporters in those two undecided states. Ed Henry is in Virginia for us. Chris Lawrence is in Montana.
We also have a breakdown of the issues that drove the vote. And also we'll take a look into the future. What's the power shift in Washington, D.C., going to mean for President Bush and his last two years in office and, of course, for the race in 2008. That's all ahead this morning.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get right to Virginia. A recount is looming, a legal battle could be brewing with one candidate claiming victory, the other refusing to concede defeat. CNN's Ed Henry is in Richmond with more.
Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Miles.
I'm outside the headquarters of Republican Senator George Allen. His staff, his team was in shock last night. They were really having a difficult time with these results that were coming in throughout the night.
What's so shocking to them clearly is that just a few months ago this race was supposed to be a cakewalk for Senator Allen. It was going to be a stepping stone to a White House run in 2008. But then there was one miscue after another. The macaca moment, et cetera. He now is not only on the verge of potentially losing his seat, but also maybe tilting control of the entire United States Senate over to the Democrats.
Democrat Jim Webb, his challenger, last night declaring victory. He's up by about 8,000 votes with six precincts in the commonwealth of Virginia that have still not been counted. As I noted, Webb was declaring victory, but Allen was certainly not conceding.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JIM WEBB, (D) VIRGINIA SENATE CANDIDATE: We all go out, we vote, we argue, we vote, but also I would like to say that the votes are in and we won. SEN. GEORGE ALLEN, (R) VIRGINIA: So the point of the matter is, I've been through it. I think that the counting -- I know the counting will continue through the night. It'll continue tomorrow. And I want to thank you all because I know you're going to be like a bunch of eagles and hawks watching how every one of these votes are accurately counted.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Now, under Virginia law, it is not an automatic recount situation. It's up to the loser to decide whether or not they want to push for a recount. If the difference is within 1 percentage point, right now it's clearly within that margin, but it's going to take some time before they finish counting everything and certifying everything. So we might not have a decision for some weeks, Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Some weeks to come. It's a good thing you close by, Ed Henry.
HENRY: That's right.
M. O'BRIEN: Anyway, thank you very much.
HENRY: Don't tell them that.
M. O'BRIEN: There you have it. This is something that probably is going to put Jeff Toobin on a plane before too long. He joins us now . . .
JEFF TOOBIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Before to long.
M. O'BRIEN: To talk about the legal implications of all this. First of all, let's run through what the law is there. A recount's not automatic. A candidate can call for one if the margin is less than -- 1 percent or less of the total votes. So that pretty much lays it out for you.
TOOBIN: And 2.4 million votes cast approximately. And 24,000 is 1 percent. The margin is now 8 percent. So it's well under.
M. O'BRIEN: OK. So as a legal case, I haven't heard much about any major irregularities in Virginia. This is just a matter of counting, right?
TOOBIN: No. No, I mean, there have been not been a lot of major irregularities. And one thing that makes recounts fairly straightforward in Virginia, at least as far as we can tell at this point, is that it's almost all electronic voting with no paper trail. So all you do is go back to the machines, check the numbers, because that's all there is to check.
M. O'BRIEN: So the same machines that have this margin right now of 8,000 votes or whatever it is, would be just re-asked and likely there won't be much of a change, right?
TOOBIN: Correct. There are some other issues. There are provisional ballots, which have not been counted yet. That is people who were not allowed to vote. They were on the rolls for some reason. They voted anyway. They will test whether those votes actually count. The chances are it's not much of an impact. But that starts today.
M. O'BRIEN: Not enough of an impact. And absentees have already been put in the mix here, right?
TOOBIN: Already put in the mix.
M. O'BRIEN: Because I recall back in 2000 it seems like, in Florida, there were some absentee ballots that were counted afterwards.
TOOBIN: The famous military ballots . . .
M. O'BRIEN: Right.
TOOBIN: Which were much later.
Virginia changed its law after the Florida crisis to make recounts much less elaborate and, you know, we have very recent experience with recounts in Virginia. Last year the Virginia attorney general race on election night was won by the Republican by 323 votes. There was a full recount. It went on until December 22nd, three days before Christmas, and the Republican wound up winning 27 more votes. That was all that changed.
M. O'BRIEN: Twenty-seven votes, yes.
TOOBIN: So think about that number against 8,000. It suggests that if this number is what the recount begins with, Allen has a virtually insurmountable attempt.
M. O'BRIEN: Quick, final point. You were in here the other day. We were talking about all the potential litigation that might be in the works. Did it come across better than anticipated? Was it a cleaner election by and large nationwide?
TOOBIN: I think it was OK, not great. The thing about elections is that, and, frankly, no one pays attention to problems unless the races are really close. So, yes, there were problems, but the only states we're really going to be looking closely at are Montana and Virginia.
M. O'BRIEN: All right, Jeff Toobin, thank you very much.
TOOBIN: All right.
M. O'BRIEN: Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: All right. Well, you know, of course, the morning after question is (AUDIO GAP) folks (AUDIO GAP).
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: (AUDIO GAP).
S. O'BRIEN: Interesting. At the end of the day, some of the (AUDIO GAP).
SCHNEIDER: (AUDIO GAP).
S. O'BRIEN: (AUDIO GAP) exit poll this morning. If you look at what's put up on the (AUDIO GAP).
SCHNEIDER: They're not very far apart. A few points apart. But (AUDIO GAP) important and people said (AUDIO GAP) important (AUDIO GAP) Republican (AUDIO GAP) is not much help to Republicans because (AUDIO GAP) Republicans were ready (AUDIO GAP).
S. O'BRIEN: (AUDIO GAP) to know if there's any fallout from (AUDIO GAP) there. Was it all in the polling.
SCHNEIDER: I think the polling (AUDIO GAP) had a very (AUDIO GAP) approval rating. But it's a (AUDIO GAP) right after Hurricane Katrina (AUDIO GAP).
S. O'BRIEN: (AUDIO GAP).
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
S. O'BRIEN: Finally, the politics is local, as the polling showed. Not in this case.
SCHNEIDER: No, not in this case. It was really a national election. You saw that dramatically (AUDIO GAP) in Rhode Island where voters rejected Lincoln Chafee, their Republican senator, even though he had a 63 percent job approval rating. They liked him but . . .
S. O'BRIEN: Moderate.
SCHNEIDER: And he was moderate. And he was anti-war. And he was anti-Bush. But the Democrats' argument was, we may like Lincoln Chafee, but he is a Republican and he empowers those very bad people that we don't want to . . .
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: Welcome back. While we were talking with Bill Schneider, apparently got knocked off the fiber line. The fiber line went down or something. So we're going to do it again. It was so good the first time we've asked Bill to sit around and walk through -- because I think this analysis of why folks voted like they voted, it's certainly a question that Republicans are asking themselves today. Interesting element in the Virginia race. Why don't you start there.
SCHNEIDER: The Virginia race was determined by a third party candidate. A woman named Gail Parker running as an independent. She was with the green party. And she held the balance of power. She got 26,000 votes. Many times the margin between Allen and Webb, which you can see here is about 8,000 votes. Well, her vote would have gone probably to Webb and so, therefore, if she hadn't run, won would have won a clean victory.
S. O'BRIEN: Everyone's going to start calling her Miss Nador (ph) if it actually ends up going to George Allen.
SCHNEIDER: Exactly.
S. O'BRIEN: You look at the exit polling and corruption and ethics under what was important to voters was the top of the list at 42 percent, Iraq at 37 percent, the bottom of that short part of the list. I would have thought it would have been flipped.
SCHNEIDER: Well, if you look at those numbers, they're very similar. They're not very far apart, 37/42 percent is a very narrow range. What the voters were saying is, all of those issues were important. Corruption, that worked for Democrats, rather. Iraq, of course, paid off for Democrats. Terrorism was supposed to be the Republicans' issue, but actually voters who cited terrorism were about equally divided between Republicans and Democrats. So Republicans lost their issue.
S. O'BRIEN: Did they do any exit polling on Hurricane Katrina? Because I certainly haven't heard about it. I mean, the impact of Katrina on the president and also Republicans.
SCHNEIDER: No. That really wasn't in the exit poll, but you did notice that in state after state and around the country, George Bush had a very low approval rating. Much different from two years ago. That started to happen with the response to Hurricane Katrina.
S. O'BRIEN: So Hurricane Katrina certainly didn't help anything on that front for him.
SCHNEIDER: No.
S. O'BRIEN: The saying, of course, as you well know, is all politics is local and it should have a little asterisk, you know, but not in this midterm election.
SCHNEIDER: No, this was an unusually nationalized election. People were voting on national themes, particularly the war in Iraq, the terrorism issue, all kinds of national issues. And you saw this particularly in Rhode Island where Senator Lincoln Chafee had a 63 percent job approval rating. They liked him. They really liked him, but they voted him out.
S. O'BRIEN: He's a moderate too.
SCHNEIDER: He's a moderate. He's anti-Bush. He didn't even vote to re-elect Bush, though he's a Republican. He was anti-war. What happened was, people -- the Democrats said, if you vote for Lincoln Chafee, you are helping to empower the Republicans in keeping their monopoly on power. You don't want to do that. And apparently the voters of Rhode Island said, no, we don't. So they threw him out even though they liked him.
S. O'BRIEN: What's the headline?
SCHNEIDER: The headline is, Republicans lose the center. The center has swung. Those swing voters have swung decisively away from the Republicans who moved to far to the right. Best example, Arnold Schwarzenegger in California. He survived. How did he survive?
S. O'BRIEN: He changed his tune is how he survived.
SCHNEIDER: He did two things that George Bush did not do. He acknowledged his mistakes and he changed his policies.
S. O'BRIEN: Interesting watching it the day after.
Bill Schneider, nice to have you. Thank you very much.
Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Thank you, Soledad.
And it will be back to the future for President Bush. The White House saying he plans to go back to the Texas model where, as governor, he dealt with Democrats in the legislature. We're told the president will call the outgoing and incoming speakers of the House today, and he's planning an afternoon news conference. CNN's Elaine Quijano at the White House with a preview.
Hello, Elaine.
ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Miles.
Well, as you might expect, the White House is trying to strike a conciliatory tone. As you noted, the president is set to make two calls this morning, one to the outgoing House speaker, Dennis Hastert, offering condolences. The other phone call will be a congratulatory one to Representative Nancy Pelosi who is, of course, said to become the next House speaker.
Now this is a president, though, who does not like to "play small ball." So the White House is already trying to look ahead at perhaps some areas of common ground with the Democrats, including energy independence, as well as comprehensive immigration reform. Something that the president was not able to get when Republicans were in charge of the House.
Now, at the same time, White House officials say that they are counting on conservative Democrats in the House, perhaps Democrats who are closer to the president's way of thinking than Nancy Pelosi is. Still, Bush aides concede that it will be harder to get some bills through. And, of course, the differences on Iraq will continue to dominate the discussion.
We'll wait to hear from President Bush directly. As you noted, he is set to have a news conference later this afternoon. But clearly some big questions looming, what will happen with Iraq? Might there be any personnel changes coming? On that specific point, Tony Snow, the White House press secretary, was coy, telling CNN yesterday that it is reasonable to believe that some people who have been with the administration for a long time "might be ready to step down." But, of course, Snow would not go beyond that. Other questions, how will the president approach the next two years and what on his agenda will he be able to accomplish in his remaining time in office? Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Elaine Quijano, thank you very much.
Now to results from two of the tightest Senate races, Tennessee and Missouri. Jonathan Freed is in St. Louis, Joe Johns in Memphis. Let's begin with Jonathan, where just a couple of hours ago the Democrat, Claire McCaskill, declared victory.
Jonathan.
JONATHAN FREED, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That is absolutely right, Miles, and good morning.
And it's interesting the sequence of these things in politics because, yes, just a few hours ago, 1:00 a.m. St. Louis time, Claire McCaskill, the Democrat, comes up and declares victory, followed by her opponent conceding defeat, Jim Talent, the incumbent Republican senator.
Now, it was a very close vote and I had a chance to talk to Claire McCaskill afterwards, a couple of hours ago, asked her what kind of a tone she felt she was going to bring to Washington. What kind of a signal the close vote meant to her. She said that it means that -- she styles herself more as a moderate and she says that she will definitely have to adopt a decidedly moderate tone. Let's listen to what both candidates had to say just a few hours ago here in St. Louis.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLAIRE MCCASKILL, (D) SENATOR-ELECT: This election was not about me. This election was about you. It was about you and thousands others like you across this state. I thank you and all of them for your help.
SEN. JAMES TALENT, (R) MISSOURI: We couldn't do it and I want you all to know that it was not for the effort, it was not because of any lack of support or work or vigor anywhere around this state. You all did a great, great job. The headwind was just very, very strong this year. But I think without your support, your effort, your hard work and your belief, there's no way that we could have made it this close and I want to thank all of you very, very much.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FREED: Now, Miles, McCaskill worked very hard during this campaign to also make it a referendum on the Bush presidency and anybody who supported him and Jim Talent was seen as somebody that was definitely on the side of the White House agenda. Iraq played into this quite prominently and McCaskill has been on the record as calling for the resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. I asked her, OK, now you've been handed this larger soapbox on this topic. What are you going to do with it? And she said I'm going to renew calls for his resignation.
Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Jonathan Freed in St. Louis.
Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: In Tennessee, Democrat Harold Ford Jr. was in a nasty fight with the former Chattanooga mayor, Bob Corker. Corker turned out in the end to be the one bright spot of the night for the GOP. CNN's Joe Johns in Memphis for us this morning.
Good morning to you, Joe.
JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
It was one of the few things Republicans had to crow about. One of the few examples where that vaunted GOP get out the vote effort actually worked. Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, Tennessee, had to wait late into the night. But at the end, Tennessee finally gave him the victory in one of the nation's most closely watched races.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BOB CORKER, (R) TENNESSEE SENATOR-ELECT: There was a strong headwind working against us. But in the end, the choice belonged to the good people of Tennessee. They ignored the distractions and distortions and instead focused on the different qualifications of two men and they made up their own minds.
HAROLD FORD JR., (D) TENNESSEE SENATE CANDIDATE: Don't lose faith in this great thing called America, this great process. We went through a hard campaign, a tough campaign. A lot of things were said. But it's now time for all of us to figure out how we come back together and heal and make this thing called our country work again.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNS: In some ways, people this morning are saying that Ford may have rewritten the book on how Democrats can be competitive in statewide races in the south. He was running himself somewhat of a headwind there, running against Republicans who just flooded this state with tremendous amounts of people and energy, trying to hold on to the seat now being vacated by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.
Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: A pretty decent showing when you consider the polling up to the last moment really showed him much further behind than what ended up being the case, Joe.
JOHNS: That's certainly true. A lot of people had suggested that this was going to be a double-digit win for Bob Corker. It wasn't. As you know, some of the other things that Mr. Ford had to deal with, he was an African-American running in the south. He would have been, if he had been elected, the first African-American from the south elected to the Senate since reconstruction. There had always been a question as to whether Tennessee was ready for that, but there were many other issues in this race, including some of the nasty ads, a confrontation here in Memphis between Corker and Ford which might have also played into it. People will be reviewing this race for a long time.
S. O'BRIEN: Yes, the old call me Harold. I wonder how that played out.
Joe Johns for us this morning. Thanks, Joe.
Twenty minutes past the hour. If you're about to head out the door, first let's check in with Chad. He's at the CNN Weather Center. He's got a travelers' forecast for you.
Hey, Chad, good morning.
(WEATHER REPORT)
M. O'BRIEN: There's more election coverage straight ahead.
Plus, of course, we're "Minding Your Business" this morning. Andy will stop by to tell us about a big legal victory for the late Ken Lay. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: Andy Serwer is here to talk business. We're going to talk about the late Ken Lay and a victory for him and also how the elections are impacting the markets and the futures at least.
Good morning, Andy.
ANDY SERWER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right. Good morning, Miles.
First of all, Ken Lay, we've been talking about this story for a couple of weeks now in terms of his conviction. It was overturned because he was appealing or his estate was after his death and that was appealed. And now a federal appeals court has upheld the vacating of Lay's conviction.
So this is pretty much it, folks. He has not been convicted of those charges. Of course, he passed away several months ago after he was convicted.
M. O'BRIEN: And this is all because he was unable to appeal . . .
SERWER: That's right. When you're appealing at that point, then the court has no choice but to vacate a conviction.
S. O'BRIEN: If you die, you can get out of your conviction.
SERWER: That's right. It's a heavy price to pay, as it would say, Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: That would be, yes.
SERWER: A story in Bloomberg this morning, another rogue report here. Bloomberg is reporting that former Tyco CEO, Dennis Kozlowski, is having a fire sell. Is selling a $10 million home in Beaver Creek, Colorado.
Basically this guy owes the government $167 million. And in September he told them he was $59 million short. So he had to sell a $13 million yacht, $8 million of paintings. In this home, this is great stuff, a seven-foot carved bear by the door to hold umbrellas.
M. O'BRIEN: Another umbrella stand.
SERWER: This guy likes umbrella stands, but he had that $15,000 dog one.
S. O'BRIEN: Expensive ones to boot.
SERWER: Exactly. And here's another nice detail. He had put a ninth bathroom he added on to this home modeled after an old west outhouse. Modeled after an old west outhouse.
S. O'BRIEN: I bet it was expensive. You get a really expensive bathroom modeled after an outhouse.
SERWER: After an old west outhouse. So pretty amazing stuff.
M. O'BRIEN: With just a pot (INAUDIBLE).
SERWER: I guess. Something like that.
M. O'BRIEN: Whatever. You know, one of those things you (INAUDIBLE) then it goes.
S. O'BRIEN: Ah, the visual.
SERWER: And we'll get to stocks. Some interesting stuff going on with the uncertainty of the election in terms of those two senate race, the market and the futures not so happy with that. We'll talk about that later.
M. O'BRIEN: They don't like uncertainty. They want it over.
SERWER: That's true.
M. O'BRIEN: All right. Thank you, Andy.
SERWER: You're welcome.
S. O'BRIEN: Let's talk about politics, shall we? That's our theme this morning, obviously, with the Democrats taking control of the House. What's it all going to mean for the troops who are serving in Iraq? We've got the very latest from the Pentagon straight ahead.
And voters in several states voted on same-sex marriage bans, as well. We're going to tell you how those ballot issues fared. That's all ahead on AMERICAN MORNING. We're back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: A new day in America. Democrats poised to take control of the House for the first time in a dozen years.
S. O'BRIEN: And the night not over yet for two tight races in the Senate. Votes are being counted right now in the states of Virginia and Montana. The results still to come on this AMERICAN MORNING.
Maybe, really, because, of course, could be still to come a while down the road.
M. O'BRIEN: Absolutely.
S. O'BRIEN: Good morning. Welcome, everybody. Wednesday, November 8th. I'm Soledad O'Brien.
M. O'BRIEN: And I'm Miles O'Brien. Thanks for being with us.
S. O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the tightest race. In fact, the one that could decide the Senate. That's in Virginia and the Democrat, Jim Webb, is leading the Republican Senator George Allen only by 8,000 votes. Webb declared victory. Allen not quite conceding. And the vote is close enough for Allen to demand a recount.
Also, still up in the air right now is a crucial Senate race in Montana. Results are due within the next couple of hours from one county in Big Sky Country. Democrat Jon Tester facing off against Republican incumbent Conrad Burns.
Chris Lawrence is in Billings, Montana, for us this morning.
Good morning to you, Chris.
CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
Boy, if you think it's close there in Virginia, the candidates here in Montana are now just 2,000 votes apart. Ten percent of the precincts still have to report in, and here in Montana there have been glitches.
In the county I'm standing in right now, Yellowstone County, they had some problems with the new software they were using to count the ballots. When they fixed a glitch, it reset their counter to zero. They had to go back and start recounting those ballots from scratch.
Now, currently, Democrat Jon Tester holds a very, very slim lead over his -- the Republican incumbent, and if Democrats have any hope of taking control of the Senate, Tester has to hold on to that lead. If he does not, then it really doesn't matter how Virginia shakes out in its canvassing and recount. The Democrats need Tester to hold on and win this seat.
Now, Conrad Burns is the incumbent. The senator has been in office for 18 years. But attack ads have tried to portray him as the poster boy for the culture of corruption in Washington.
Conrad Burns did take money from convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. He said it never influenced his vote, and he gave that money back after the scandal broke. But again, those attack ads hammered away at him trying to tie him to the culture of corruption in Washington -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: We're watching that race, too.
Chris Lawrence for us this morning.
Thank you, Chris.
Control of the House, of course, means that Democrats get to set the agenda. They've already put together an ambitious plan.
Congressional Correspondent Andrea Koppel is live for us on Capitol Hill this morning.
Good morning, Andrea.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
Well, it's been their mantra for months both out on the campaign trail and here on Capitol Hill, that a vote for Democrats would be a vote for change in America.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D), CALIFORNIA: Tonight is a great victory for the American people. Today the American people voted for change, and they voted for Democrats to take our country in a new direction.
KOPPEL (voice over): Now that Democrats have won the House, what will they do?
SEN. CHARLES SCHUMER (D), NEW YORK: We're going to move this country in a new direction.
KOPPEL: In a recent interview with CNN, Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, now poised to become the next House speaker, promised to use that clout to push an ambitious agenda in her first 100 hours in power. It includes enacting all 9/11 Commission recommendations on national security; increasing the minimum wage to $7.25 an hour; eliminating corporate subsidies for oil companies; and allowing the government to negotiate Medicare drug price; as well as cutting interest rates on college loans and imposing new lobbying restrictions.
As for Iraq, Democrats say they'll make 2007 a year of transition.
SEN. CHARLES SCHUMER (D), NEW YORK: Where we redeploy our troops, putting many if not most of them outside harm's way, both in and outside Iraq. KOPPEL: On the campaign trail Republicans warned Democrats would increase taxes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: IF Democrats take over Congress, they will raise taxes by $2.4 trillion.
KOPPEL: Pelosi's response, yes, but only for the wealthiest Americans.
PELOSI: We will revisit the tax cuts at the high end, but in order to give tax cuts to the middle class.
KOPPEL: Complicating matters, a new batch of moderate and conservative Democrats just elected who will force their party to shift towards the center.
THOMAS MANN, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: The trick for Pelosi and the other leaders is going to be to find issues that -- that unify the various wings of the party.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KOPPEL: And that, say experts, is one reason Pelosi wants to begin legislating next year with issues that all Democrats can agree on, things like raising the minimum wage and returning to a budget rule that's known as pay-go which means that you pay for your raising taxes and for tax cuts, as well as spending additional money -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: All right. Andrea Koppel for us this morning.
Thanks, Andrea.
Speaker-in-Waiting Nancy Pelosi is going to join Wolf Blitzer in "THE SITUATION ROOM" this afternoon. Of course, that's at 4:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: The exit polls show the war in Iraq was a major issue on your mind as you made your decision in the voting booth. So, now that you weighed in, what, in fact, might change at the Pentagon? Will the secretary of defense, Donald Rumsfeld, keep his job, for example?
CNN's Barbara Starr joining us from the Pentagon with more.
Barbara, good morning.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Miles.
That is the question. What about Iraq?
Well, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the last word on that subject, of course, was President Bush's statement of several days ago that he wanted the secretary to stay until the end of the president's term, two years from now or so, and that he wanted Rumsfeld to remain on the job. Will the secretary do that?
The question on the table, will the secretary be able to work effectively with a Democratic Congress? That will be Don Rumsfeld's assessment as to whether or not he can do it.
Officially, he stays, but whether he can be effective is going to be his decision. Can he work with the Congress he's got rather than the Congress he wants to have?
Point number two, the troops. It's going to be very important now, I think everyone agrees, for the troops -- or the commanders say for the troops to understand that this election was not about them. That the troops must know they have the confidence of the American people, that the American people support these young soldiers and Marines who are out on the line every minute of their lives risking their lives in Iraq. That's going to be important.
But there will be a fairly quick bellwether of what this new Congress means to do about Iraq, because on November 15th, just a few days from now, the Senate Armed Services Committee has already scheduled a major hearing on Iraq. General John Abizaid, the top commander, the head of the CIA, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, all scheduled to come to Capitol Hill and talk about the war.
Technically on November 15th, it will still be the current Congress. That committee will be controlled by Republicans, but make no mistake, on the Senate side in the Armed Services Committee, both Republicans and Democrats have a lot of questions about the war.
The current chairman, John Warner of Virginia, a Republican, is the one who said not too long ago he wanted to see some changes coming in Iraq if the violence continues. So just a few days from now we'll begin to see how it all shapes up and what some of the tough questions will be.
Last point, Miles, not a lot is going to change right away. The troops are already awaiting a new troop rotation announcement that is expected in days. The next round of troops scheduled to go into Iraq regardless of this election -- Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: Barbara Starr at the Pentagon.
Thank you very much.
Coming up on the program, President Bush now facing a new reality in Congress. Will he also fight gridlock? We'll talk with one of the new leaders of the new Democratic House ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: Just about 20 minutes before the hour. Let's first check in with Chad before you head out the door.
Hey, Chad. Good morning.
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Soledad. (WEATHER REPORT)
M. O'BRIEN: The Democrats will soon be in power in the House, maybe in the Senate, although it's too early to say for sure there. So now what? What will the Democrats do now that they have the votes and the control of the gavels?
Congressman Rahm Emanuel led the Democratic election operation in the House. He joins us from Washington.
Congressman Emanuel, good to have you back on the program.
REP. RAHM EMANUEL (D), ILLINOIS: Thank you, Miles.
M. O'BRIEN: You now have the burden of leadership. In a sense, it's easier to be the opposition party out of power. What next for you?
EMANUEL: Well, we're going to move on the agenda that we laid out, the new direction agenda. We're going to go for a vote on increasing the minimum wage; a vote on direct negotiations for lower prescription drug prices; a vote on the 9/11 Commission recommendations; a vote to redirect the $12.5 billion in subsidies to big oil companies, towards energy independence; a vote to cut interest on student loans in half; and a vote to make sure that we have pay-as- you-go rules on the budget so we don't continue to rack up these huge deficits and debt. And that's just the beginning.
And then there'll be a vote on stem cell research, on a new ethics package to clean up Washington. And we're going to march through our agenda to get this country moving again, because after six years and, more importantly, what I refer to as the endless occupation in Iraq and the wageless recovery here at home, the American people want a Congress that's going to meet the challenges that are facing this country.
M. O'BRIEN: Well, what are the Democrats going to do about the war in Iraq, though?
EMANUEL: Well, we look forward to the Hamilton-Baker proposal that the president set up. We don't believe, as the vice president says, full steam ahead regardless of the election. The American people were clear, they want a new direction.
And as the generals have said, we have a major problem in Iraq. It's the worst national security challenge in over two generations to this country. We have our principles in place that we're going to approach this. One of them is going to be bipartisan.
M. O'BRIEN: Would you suggest -- would the Democrats push to cut funding for the war in Iraq?
EMANUEL: No, we've already said that that's not going to happen. We're not going to do it that way. We need a proposal.
But look, what is the Baker-Hamilton Commission supposed to do? They are opposed to come up with a strategy that has been woefully inadequate for three and a half years.
We have, Miles -- in three and a half years, have spent $380 billion. Nearly 3,000 American lives, 20,000 wounded, and General Abizaid says we're on the brink of a civil war. The needle at the Pentagon is pointing more and more consistently towards chaos.
You cannot consistently do more of the same and call it a strategy. And everybody, from the generals, to the "Army Times," says we need a new leadership as it comes to our efforts there, and we need a strategy.
We have been a -- three years long on slogans and short on a strategy. We've heard "Mission accomplished." We've heard the "last throes" for the terrorists. We have heard that "When they stand up, we'll stand down."
None of it has measured up to having a strategy. We look forward to working with the president and Republicans to developing that, because this is a -- this is a challenge for America, not just for one party.
M. O'BRIEN: You say -- you say you look forward to working with the president. There's some Democrats who would like to hold impeachment hearings.
What do you say about that?
EMANUEL: It won't happen. We've already said that repeatedly. It will not happen. It's off the table.
The American people elected us to be the party of reform, and our reform is going to be to make sure that we deal with the healthcare challenges facing the country, the retirement security challenges facing the country, the income gap that's facing this country...
M. O'BRIEN: All right. We're...
EMANUEL: ... and we'll meet those challenges.
M. O'BRIEN: ... running out of time. I want to get you on record. Will you support Nancy Pelosi as the speaker?
EMANUEL: With honor.
M. O'BRIEN: And what about you? Will you put yourself in a position -- will you support yourself for some sort of leadership role?
EMANUEL: I don't know. I have a veto over myself.
M. O'BRIEN: All right. What are you going to do? Are you going to go for majority leader?
EMANUEL: No, not majority leader. Listen, Miles, I'm going to take stock of what we've accomplished. I'm going to make a decision in the next 24 hours. M. O'BRIEN: What about whip? What about the whip job?
EMANUEL: I'm going to make a decision in the next 24 hours. I'm not ready to commit.
M. O'BRIEN: Why not do it right here? Just do it right here, right now.
EMANUEL: I appreciate your desire for me to do it right here, but it's not just a private conversation. But thank you.
M. O'BRIEN: Rahm Emanuel, thank you very much for your time.
EMANUEL: You've got it.
M. O'BRIEN: We also -- we also invited his Republican counterpart, Tom Reynolds, to join us this morning. He declined our arrest.
Well, there weren't just people on the ballots. There were a lot of ideas.
Voters in several states weighing in on same-sex marriage, raising the minimum wage, stem cell research, and legalizing marijuana, just a few of the issues out there.
AMERICAN MORNING'S Ali Velshi has been watching all of that.
Hello, Ali.
ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you heard Rahm Emanuel talking about the fact that they're going to move very quickly. That's one of their platforms, to raise the federal minimum wage, which has been stuck at $5.15 for about the last 10 years. We now have more than half the states with the minimum wage higher than that.
Another issue, same-sex marriage. It was on the ballot in, what was it, eight states? Passed pretty much everywhere except Arizona, where it's still in play. So we're not deciding on that one yet. But Colorado, Idaho, Tennessee, South Carolina, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Virginia, you add that seven to the mix and you have got 27 states now that have on-the-books bans against gay marriage.
I should tell you in some of those places, Arizona, which we haven't called -- but it's because it's so close -- but Virginia, South Dakota, Colorado, fewer than 60 percent voters voting in favor of it. So they weren't sort of landslides in those places. Tennessee and South Carolina both had close to 80 percent of voters voting in favor of a gay marriage ban.
M. O'BRIEN: So, generally speaking, though, that's a wide variety of states...
VELSHI: Yes.
M. O'BRIEN: ... Populous -- demographics, people are saying no to same-sex marriage.
VELSHI: Yes, that's absolutely right. More than half of the states now.
M. O'BRIEN: All right. What are you going to look at next?
VELSHI: Well, we're looking at a bunch of things.
Arizona talking about official language, English as the official language. And restrictions on affirmative action in colleges in Michigan when we come back. A few assorted questions around the country.
M. O'BRIEN: All right. Ali Velshi, thank you -- Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: And of course there's much more election coverage straight ahead, including a look at the biggest surprises of the night.
Stay with us. We're back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
M. O'BRIEN: All right. It's time now to check in with one of our political pros who just the other day courageously went way out on a limb for us and made some predictions. We're calling him Mercuriak this morning, and he earned the name because he was actually pretty darn accurate.
John Mercurio, you could do this for a living. Oh, that's right, you do.
He works for the "Hotline". He joins us from Washington. He's been up all night. And we appreciate that.
Good to have you back with us.
JOHN MERCURIO, "HOTLINE": It's good to be here. I hope I make sense.
M. O'BRIEN: All right.
Let's go to prediction number one. Prediction number one was on the Senate.
By the way, this is our current tally here, 49 Republican, 49 Democrat. And we'll move in here, and we've been telling you all morning the two states in question here, Virginia and Montana, those are the little white buttons right there. Let's roll the tape to election eve and see what you said about the Senate.
MERCURIO: OK.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
M. O'BRIEN: How about the Senate now? That's the one that is really the nail-biter on both sides.
MERCURIO: I think we're looking at a 50-50 Senate. I really do.
M. O'BRIEN: 50-50?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
M. O'BRIEN: Excellent, excellent. Ding, ding, ding. We don't have a bell. Do we have a bell?
MERCURIO: Miles, I actually had the results before. I just wasn't allowed to disclose them.
M. O'BRIEN: Oh, is that it? You had it -- in close confidence you had this.
Of course, it's unclear whether it's going to come out to be 50- 50, but the fact that it is this close -- what are your thoughts this morning on which way Montana and Virginia will go? It seems as if, you know, we got a recount there in Yellowstone County, in Montana.
MERCURIO: Right.
M. O'BRIEN: The numbers there are pretty, pretty substantial, though.
MERCURIO: Pretty substantial. Also, in Virginia, look, I mean, any time a front-runner is ahead by 11,000 votes out of about, what, two or three million cast, most of the legal analysts that I've been listening to over the past two or three hours have said that that's a pretty good place for Jim Webb to be. And going into that, I think he probably has the advantage. But really it's anybody's game in Montana. I mean, it really -- it really is extremely close out there.
M. O'BRIEN: OK. So let's -- we'll just leave Montana out there for a minute.
You think -- you feel pretty strongly Webb's going to get Virginia?
MERCURIO: I do. You know, it's impossible at this point to try to predict, but I think so, yes.
M. O'BRIEN: OK. All right. So assume for a moment Montana, in fact, goes to Burns, the incumbent. There you have your 50-50 Senate.
MERCURIO: There you go.
M. O'BRIEN: All right.
MERCURIO: That's what I...
M. O'BRIEN: Just what you said.
MERCURIO: That's what I'm trying to create. M. O'BRIEN: All right. Now, let's go back and we'll play the tape one more time for your predictions on the House of Representatives.
MERCURIO: All right.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MERCURIO: I don't think we see the tsunami we were expecting. I'm putting the number at 227. I've gone through over the weekend and done my sort of last estimates, 227 is about right.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
M. O'BRIEN: 227 he said, ladies and gentlemen. Let's push the button, shift to -- oh, my goodness, look at that right now, 227/191 is the current number.
MERCURIO: Did we bet any money on this?
M. O'BRIEN: No, but did you?
MERCURIO: I should have.
M. O'BRIEN: We should have had a little wager, a polite wager. But in any case, there are still some seats that haven't come in, right? So this number could change.
MERCURIO: It could, of course, but I think let's just leave it at 227 so that I look smart.
M. O'BRIEN: Let's just pretend that 227 is it.
In point of fact, that still is -- it's a pretty narrow margin as far as doing business, and especially when you consider many of the Democrats who won were conservative Democrats.
MERCURIO: Absolutely.
M. O'BRIEN: The Democratic Party has Nancy Pelosi, very liberal at the top, then a lot of conservatives, so-called blue dog Democrats that won here.
Is it going to be difficult to corral that group?
MERCURIO: I think that is exactly -- you just put your finger on what I think is going to be the most unique and specific challenge she's going to have going into the Congress. She needs to address the fact that the American public has repudiated the status quo, the Republicans, the Iraq war, a lot of other Bush administration policies. So she needs to respond to that, but she also -- which she has to do in sort of a partisan way -- but she also has to reach across the aisle with what could be a Republican Senate and deal with these conservative Democrats.
So I really think Nancy Pelosi has a very complicated job ahead of her.
M. O'BRIEN: I should say.
All right. A couple of other things we asked you about. We asked you about the seemingly close race that won't be so close. You picked Menendez versus Kean, Senate race in New Jersey. And this one, look at the numbers on this one. It came out Menendez winning, 53/45. That's about what you predicted there as well.
MERCURIO: I said eight to 10, yes.
M. O'BRIEN: Yes. All right. We'll give you that one, as well. But then there's one that I -- the one...
MERCURIO: Yes. Well...
M. O'BRIEN: We're going to give you credit. We're going to put you in the hall of fame for this. But you said Dennis Hastert would have a close race. And look at the numbers on that one. It was pretty much a blowout for the outgoing speaker.
MERCURIO: Slightly more narrow than his previous margin, but, yes, I would agree with you.
M. O'BRIEN: 60/40.
MERCURIO: It was a mini landslide on his part.
M. O'BRIEN: Well, 60/40. Come on, that's more than a mini landslide.
In any case, congratulations, John Mercurio.
MERCURIO: Thank you.
M. O'BRIEN: You definitely had the crystal ball going. And we will be checking in with you, as we always do, as this all unfolds.
MERCURIO: Thank you.
M. O'BRIEN: Soledad.
S. O'BRIEN: All right.
Much more election coverage straight ahead. And we're "Minding Your Business," as well. There's a new sign this morning that the nation's housing slump is getting worse. Andy Serwer will take a look at that as we continue right here on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
S. O'BRIEN: More bad news on the home front this morning.
(BUSINESS REPORT)
M. O'BRIEN: The next hour of AMERICAN MORNING begins right now. S. O'BRIEN: And in fact it's a new day. We've got a live look this morning, Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. There it is, right there in the middle.
Democrats moving into the House. Voters put them back in charge of the House of Representatives.
M. O'BRIEN: Not so clear cut in the Senate, though. That's still a cliffhanger after an all-night vote count in two states. Results to come on this AMERICAN MORNING. Maybe.
Good morning to you. It is Wednesday, November 8th.
I'm Miles O'Brien.
S. O'BRIEN: And I'm Soledad O'Brien.
Thanks for being with us.
M. O'BRIEN: At 7:00 a.m. Eastern time here in the U.S., here's what's happening for you right now.
The Democrats roll up huge wins in the House. CNN projects at least 28 seats to regain control, while the U.S. Senate is still undecided at this hour.
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