Return to Transcripts main page
The Situation Room
Congressman Proposes Reinstating Draft; Pentagon Reviewing Iraq Strategy; Barack Obama Considering Presidential Run?; How Do Americans View Iraq War?
Aired November 20, 2006 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Thank you, Susan.
And to our viewers, you're in THE SITUATION ROOM, where new pictures and information are arriving all the time. Standing by, CNN reporters across the United States and around the world to bring you today's top stories.
Happening now: the question of whether or not to reinstate the military draft. It's 4 p.m. here in Washington, where a top Democratic congressman is promising to use the party's new majority status to push for a draft. How are other Democrats responding?
It's 3 p.m. in Chicago where Senator Barack Obama gives a major speech on Iraq. The Illinois Democrat and possible presidential candidate talked about war options and when he believes the U.S. troops should begin to come home.
And a school bus carrying dozens of students plunges off a highway overpass. It's 3 p.m. in Huntsville, Alabama, where that crash has killed at least two students.
Wolf Blitzer is off today. I'm John King. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Unfolding now the debate over whether to reinstate the military draft. Democratic Congressman Charlie Rangel of New York is, once again, pushing the idea.
This debate, of course, comes as we await the findings of two major policy reviews: one from the Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan group looking at new proposals, another from the Pentagon and the White House.
For more, our Jamie McIntyre is at the Pentagon, but we begin with CNN congressional correspondent, Andrea Koppel -- Andrea.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: John, it appears that before Congressman Rangel can put his ideas on paper, the proposal to reinstate the draft is dead on arrival here on Capitol Hill.
From the incoming -- the incoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services committee, Carl Levin, to his counterpart in the House, Missouri's Ike Skelton, who say that the all-volunteer force, as it is right now, is doing just fine, to the incoming majority leader in the House, Steny Hoyer, who says that there is no way, at least in the beginning, that this thing would get to the floor of the House, to the woman who's set to become the next speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, who said as far as she's concerned it's not on the table.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), SPEAKER-ELECT OF THE HOUSE: Mr. Rangel will be very busy with his work on the ways and means committee. (UNINTELLIGIBLE) strong voice for justice in our country and that's a way to make a point about this war that it has not involved (UNINTELLIGIBLE).
KOPPEL: Could you say if you support -- if you support Chairman Rangel's call for a draft? Is that something...
PELOSI: No. No.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KOPPEL: Now, the outgoing chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Duncan Hunter, today said that he doesn't think that such a proposal even makes sense.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. DUNCAN HUNTER (R-CA), OUTGOING CHAIRMAN, HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE: At this point, that ethic of patriotism is filling those ranks. We don't need to have an artificial -- an artificial tool, which is what a draft is, to fill the ranks. So if you don't need it, why have it?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KOPPEL: Now just two years ago, Chairman Rangel did get a draft Bill to the floor of the House, John. It was overwhelmingly defeated by 402 against, two votes in favor. Even Chairman Rangel, himself, the incoming chairman, voted against it because he said that the Republicans pulled a fast one, got it to the floor without an acceptable debate.
Nevertheless, today, Chairman Rangel seems to be backing off a bit. He said that this whole idea of a draft was raised at the very end of the interview that did he on the Sunday talk show.
He said he had no clue that it was going to be coming up, and he said he's about more than just talking about the draft. After all he's going to be the next chairman of the armed -- of the ways and means committee and, obviously, that's not within his jurisdiction, John.
KING: Andrea Koppel for us on Capitol Hill. Andrea, thank you very much.
And stick around. Congressman Rangel will be my guest next hour right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
And for more on this story, joining me now is CNN's senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre.
Jamie, the draft in the Pentagon, good idea?
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You couldn't find a less popular idea at the Pentagon than the draft. Nobody -- nobody here at the Pentagon supports the idea of returning to conscription. They believe that the all-volunteer military would be undermined by a draft, that they don't need it and it would be expensive.
That's not to say that there isn't a real vigorous debate about the size of the U.S. military, given the commitments going on overseas, but they don't believe the draft is the answer.
I mean, here is part of the problem. There's about 1.4 million active duty troops, more than that if you count reserves and guard troops, as well. But of that, only about 500,000 are ground troops, which is what they need in Iraq.
And if you take a look at the number that are either deployed, coming back, or getting ready to go, it gets up to about 390,000. That's a good chunk of those ground troops.
So a real vigorous debate about the size of the U.S. military, but U.S. commanders believe if they want to make the military bigger, they can do it through volunteers. And they point to the very high enlistment and recruitment rates that they've had in the last year, evidence that they can do that even during war time.
KING: Jamie, obviously, you have much more immediate concern, the internal review of Iraq policy being led by the chairman of the joint chiefs, General Peter Pace. What is the latest on that?
MCINTYRE: Well, the Pentagon is doing its best to lower expectations about that, saying today that they don't expect this group to come up with any formal recommendations. They're not going to be issuing any report.
What this really is, is a brain trust of about 16 really bright officers who have come back from Iraq, some from Afghanistan. They've been meeting with the joint chiefs, sharing their insights, their ideas, their unvarnished reality check of what is going on.
And then General Peter Pace, the chairman of the joint chiefs, he's going to synthesize all that, turn it around in his own mind, and use it when he advises President Bush about the way to go, especially when the Iraq Study Group, headed by Jim Baker, comes back with its recommendations.
KING: And those recommendations due the middle of the coming month. Jamie McIntyre for us at the Pentagon. Jamie, thank you very much.
And today, President Bush was in Indonesia, and he discussed the issue of troop levels in Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I haven't made any decisions about troop increases or troop decreases and won't until I hear from a variety of sources, including our own United States military.
As you know, General Pace, who's the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, is in the process of evaluating a lot of suggestions from the field and from people involved with the Central Command, as well as at the Pentagon. And they will be bringing forth these suggestions and recommendations to me here as quickly as possible.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: And as the president visited the predominantly Muslim nation, on the streets, some protests. Mr. Bush called it a healthy sign of democracy.
Meanwhile, the former U.S. secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, is also weighing in on the course of the Iraq war.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY KISSINGER, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: I think we have to redefine the course, but I don't believe that the alternative is between military victory, as it had been defined previously, or total withdrawal.
The art of leadership now will be to find a course that will protect our values, our interests, and the possibility of some progress in the area without simply blindly following a strategy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Henry Kissinger there.
Iraq, of course, a major issue in the campaign just over and already an issue in the next campaign, 2008. Just a short time ago, Democratic Senator Barack Obama gave a speech in Chicago, and then CNN's Don Lemon sat down with the Illinois Senator just moments ago.
Don joins us now live from Chicago with more.
Hi, Don.
DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, John.
For someone who hasn't even declared yet, Senator Barack Obama is certainly talking like a presidential candidate.
As you said, he gave that speech today in front of the Chicago Council on Global Alliance, talking specifically about timetables for troops, about deployment, or redeployment and troop levels, saying that possibly in four to six months, that the troops there would be able to stabilize Baghdad, and then after that, he would consult with military leaders to talk about getting our folks out of Iraq.
He strongly criticized the Bush administration today and even, even compared the war, calling that war a civil war.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), ILLINOIS: What we have is a toxic brew in Iraq. And what my speech specifically says is that, without a phased reemployment, where we are sending a strong signal to the Iraqi government that they have to take some responsibility for arriving at a political solution to what's taking place there, that we are not going to see any significant progress, and we will continue to have our young men and women in a line of fire without any demonstrable steps being taken to stabilize the situation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LEMON: So again, the Senator saying in four to six months that Baghdad should be secure and then after that, we should consult with military leaders to try to get our troops out.
Now, today, the biggest question on this campaign or at least if he's going to run, the biggest question is whether or not Senator Barack Obama has the chops, whether or not he has the experience, whether or not he can play to a national audience or that he even has enough gravity to win or even enter a presidential campaign.
And also if he's going up against people in his own party like Hillary Clinton who has experience and also has a team in place. He told me he could do that, but he's not auditioning for the job.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: At the moment, I'm not auditioning for the job.
LEMON: Right.
OBAMA: You know, what I'm going -- undergoing is a process to look at how I can be best -- most useful to the American people, given the enormous privilege that I have, not only to serve in the Senate, but to have an enhanced platform to speak on the issues of the day.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LEMON: And, John, we've been hearing this for months and months and months: "I'm going to make a decision soon. I'm going to make a decision soon."
Well, the Senator promises that he's going to talk this over with his family over the holiday season and make a decision soon. And he's up against the clock, so he probably has to do that anyway.
And if he's going to run, going to establish an exploratory committee, at least by the end of the year, he admits and others say that he would have to come up with at least $50 million to do that. So we should see very soon.
KING: Don Lemon for us in Chicago. We'll check in a little bit later. I may have just fallen off the apple cart here in Washington, Don, but he sure looks to me like he's auditioning. We'll check back in with you in a little bit. Thank you very much.
And so where does the junior senator from Illinois stand on the issues that matter most to you? As you just heard, Senator Obama opposes the war in Iraq and supports phased redeployment of U.S. troops. The senator says he would meet with military commanders to establish a timetable.
How about some of the other crucial issues? Obama supports abortion rights. He opposes same sex marriage but is against a constitutional amendment to ban them. He does support civil unions between gay couples.
On immigration, Obama is in favor of a Senate Bill that was supported by President Bush. That legislation called for beefed up border security, stricter enforcement of existing immigration laws and legal status -- critics would say amnesty -- for a new guest worker program, open to millions who entered this country illegally.
When it comes to Social Security, the senator is against the president's plan to allow some Social Security money to be placed in private investment accounts.
Obama supports eliminating the tax code's so-called marriage penalty and extending the child tax credit. He also wants to scale back capital gains and dividend tax cuts and says its time to reexamine tax benefits for the top one percent of earners.
If Obama decides to jump into the race for the White House, does he have a chance? Our brand new poll out this afternoon shows he's the No. 2 choice among Democrats to be the party's 2008 nominee.
Senator Hillary Clinton is at the top of the list with 33 percent. Obama comes in at 15 percent. A statistical dead heat for second place with John Edwards and Al Gore.
But when asked if they would support an Obama bid for the White House, 38 percent of those polled -- remember, these are Democrats -- 38 percent say they would not want him as their nominee.
A tragic day today in Huntsville, Alabama. A school bus plunged about 30 feet off the side of a highway overpass this morning.
With the latest now, Carol Costello.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, John. We're learning that at least three high school students were killed, all of them girls. At least 30 other people are injured, several critically.
A witness told police it appeared that a small car struck the bus.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) CHIEF REX REYNOLDS, HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA, POLICE: We do have a witness to the accident. It appears at this time, we don't really want to get really involved in the investigative standpoint, but that a car may have come close to and/or struck the bus, causing the bus to strike the rail and ultimately leave the elevated parkway, the interstate.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: The car is nowhere to be found, and police are now trying to find the driver of that car. And John, you know, a lot of people think there ought to be seat belts on school buses, and I'm sure this will renew that debate once again.
KING: It certainly will, Carol. That debate will continue. And as we continue to track this down, we should let our viewers know we're trying to get a live report from the scene as soon as possible.
Carol Costello, thank you very much.
Jack Cafferty is off this week, but Jack and "The Cafferty File" will return next Monday.
Coming up next, do Americans think the war in Iraq is turning into another Vietnam? Our new poll numbers out this hour just might surprise you.
Plus, much more on Barack Obama and the next race for the White House. Does the junior senator from Illinois have a good shot? I'll ask Paul Begala and J.C. Watts in today's "Strategy Session".
And much more on the debate over the draft. Congressman Charlie Rangel joins me next hour right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
And you just heard a very pessimistic Henry Kissinger a few moments ago speaking out on the war in Iraq. He'll join us here in THE SITUATION ROOM tomorrow. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: More and more on the political debate over the Iraq war, comparisons made to Vietnam, another controversial war, comparisons that intensified because of the president's visit to Vietnam just this past weekend. So does the -- do the American people agree with this comparison?
Joining me now with the latest poll numbers, CNN senior political analyst, Bill Schneider.
Hi, Bill.
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, John.
As you said, President Bush just went to Vietnam, making the comparison between Iraq and Vietnam unavoidable.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER (voice-over): Has Iraq become another Vietnam? Most Americans say it has. What does that mean? It means people don't think the United States is winning. It means most Americans don't believe the U.S. will win.
How about this question?
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: Can we still win? Yes, I believe we can.
SCHNEIDER: So do most Americans: 54 percent say the U.S. can win. That was the source of the public's frustration in Vietnam and now in Iraq.
Henry Kissinger should know. He recently gave his assessment of the prospects for a clear military victory.
KISSINGER: I don't believe that it's possible.
SCHNEIDER: Because, he said, the U.S. strategy...
KISSINGER: ... has failed to achieve the objectives that were defined within a time frame that our political processes will support.
SCHNEIDER: Are Americans impatient? President Bush thinks so.
BUSH: That we tend to want there to be instant success in the world and that the task in Iraq is going to take a while.
SCHNEIDER: Impatient? The United States was in Vietnam for more than ten years. The war in Iraq has already gone on longer than U.S. involvement in World War II. The public wanted to win or get out in Vietnam.
If people don't think U.S. is going to win in Iraq, are they ready to get out? Yes, but not immediately: 33 percent of the public wants to withdraw all U.S. troops. Most Americans are ready to withdraw some troops.
SEN. CARL LEVIN (D-MI), INCOMING CHAIRMAN, ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE: We must tell the Iraqis that we would begin, starting in four to six months, a phased reduction of our troops.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCHNEIDER: Americans are willing to be patient, as long as the United States is getting out. Senator McCain maintains that the U.S. can win if it sends more troops. Only 16 percent of the public is willing to do that -- John.
KING: And Bill, as this debate plays out, is there a risk for the Democrats? In the last campaign, it obviously was the president's war, the Republican president's war. As the Democrats run two branches of Congress, do they run a risk of it being their war, too? SCHNEIDER: I don't think Americans believe Congress is running this war, has run this war. It's hard to see Congress running a war. This is still the Bush administration's policy and the Bush administration's war.
KING: Bill Schneider. Bill Schneider, thank you very much.
And Bill and as you saw earlier, Andrea Koppel, Jamie McIntyre and Don Lemon, all part of the best political team on television.
And remember, for the latest political news at any time, check out our political ticker at CNN.com/ticker.
Carol Costello joins us from New York with a closer look at other stories making news.
Hi, Carol.
COSTELLO: Hi, John, and good afternoon to all of you.
The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is scheduled to meet this week in Tehran with the Iraqi president, Jalal Talabani. They are expected to figure out a way to work together to curb the violence that has taken Iraq to verge of civil war and threatens to spread throughout the region.
Syria is also stepping forward to help Iraq. Its foreign minister is promising to work for renewed economic and security ties with Iraq after meeting today with Iraq's prime minister.
The meeting came amid continued claims that Syrian fighters continue to flow across the border.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM CALDWELL, COALITION SPOKESMAN: We still do see foreign fighters coming across the Syrian border, and we stated before that it's somewhere between 50 to 70 a month is what we estimate that are making it across the border and into Iraq and able to participate in operations here in the country. That has not ceased.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: As you well know, Syria and Iraq share a long desert border. Both Iraq and the United States have accused Syria of not doing enough to stop the flow of foreign Arab fighters. We'll see what happens.
The British prime minister, Tony Blair, pledging his nation's commitment in Afghanistan for as long as it takes. He met today in Kabul with Afghan president, Hamid Karzai.
Blair says British and NATO forces would likely remain in Afghanistan for years to prevent the Taliban's return to power.
Now, earlier in the day, Blair told British troops in Afghanistan that success in fighting the Taliban would help establish global security.
The Russian government denying allegations that a former Russian spy who was recently poisoned was the target of a Kremlin backed plot. Alexander Litvinenko is in a London hospital after ingesting the toxic chemical thallium on November 1.
He says he felt ill after meeting a contact at a restaurant whim probing a journalist's murder. Doctors say he has only a 50/50 chance of surviving. British police now investigating.
And guess what? Some unexpected news about O.J. Simpson. Newscorps says it has cancelled his book and TV special entitled "If I Did It". The company's chairman, Rupert Murdoch, says he and senior management agree with the American public that this was an ill- considered project.
Murdoch apologizes for any pain the project caused the families of Ron Goldman and Nicole -- Nicole Brown Simpson. And, John, you really don't hear apologies from Mr. Murdoch very often.
KING: Glad we won't have to worry about that one. Carol Costello in New York. Carol, thank you very much.
And up next it's been nearly two weeks since the election, but Iraq, if you haven't noticed, is still the hottest political issue around. Now, thanks to this new draft controversy, are the Democrats getting off track? I'll ask Paul Begala and J.C. Watts.
Plus, the next race for the White House already underway. A new poll tells us where Barack Obama stands. Will he shake up the field on the Democratic side? Find out right here in today's "Strategy Session".
You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: Welcome back to THE SITUATION ROOM. I'm John King in Washington. Wolf is off today.
In today's "Strategy Session", more on the Iraq war debate and more on the debate over whether to reinstate the military draft. Joining me are two of CNN's finest political an lives. Paul Begala is a Democratic strategist. J.C. Watts is a former Republican congressman.
Gentlemen, thanks for joining us.
I want to start with Charlie Rangel, out again. He's proposed this before, but it means more now, because Democrats have the majority. He will be the chairman of the ways and means committee, but he says this country, especially in the middle of what he calls a failed policy in Iraq, needs to think long and hard about reinstating the draft.
Let's listen to Congressman Rangel. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. CHARLIE RANGEL (D-NY), INCOMING CHAIRMAN, HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE: Because our commitments. I want to find out whether we're going into Iran, whether we're going into North Korea. Some senators say the only way to win, whatever that is, is to send more troops. And it's hard to buy more troops. We're up to $40,000 to enlist.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Paul Begala, the speaker-to-be, Nancy, Pelosi made a point, noting that Charlie Rangel will be the chairman of the ways and means committee, which does taxes issues, spending issues. It seems to me she was saying, "Stay in your lane, Charlie. Don't get involved in foreign policy."
Is this something the Democrats want to do, is have a debate about the draft?
PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: No. No, because it's desperately unpopular. I think Nancy Pelosi did the right thing. She's asserting her leadership.
And I think Mr. Rangel, though, is also doing a very smart thing. He is -- I mean, you know him. You've covered him. I know him, as well. J.C. does. He's one of the smartest people on Capitol Hill.
Now, he knows when he proposed the military draft last year it got two votes out of 435. Only two. He's trying to make a political point and a moral point, which is if our president's terrific daughters were in harm's way in Iraq, it's unlikely he would have said, "Bring it on."
You know, if our vice president's very wonderful girls, daughters, were serving in Iraq, it's likely he would have just dismissed the insurgency as the deaths rose.
And I think it's a powerful point, that it's not anything that's going to happen. But maybe it can move us to a discussion of, first off, whether we're taking care of those troops overseas, which a lot of Democrats have argued we are not, without enough armor and allies and so forth. But also about national service itself.
You know, Charlie -- we didn't cover it at the meeting much, but Charlie Rangel also opened the door to a broader national service discussion, which you know, President Clinton started in Americorps, following on his predecessor, President Bush, with the Points of Light.
We could have a bit debate about whether all young people should serve our country. I think that would be great for both parties.
KING: Let's narrow back to the draft. Maybe we'll talk about national service a little bit. Charlie Rangel, he knows this can't pass. Why is he doing it? J.C. WATTS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I wish I could add more to what Paul said, but I think Paul has nailed it. I think Charlie is trying to discuss a larger discussion in terms of service.
Charlie, the last time he talked about this, he had some concerns about who was serving, you know, rich versus poor. Now, I think that -- that's -- that's dealt with on the basis of this being a volunteer military service. So I'm not so sure rich, poor, gets into it.
I've heard Charlie make the argument to say, you know, you've got 23 percent of the United States Army who are Americans of African descent. Probably 38 percent ethnic minority in terms of contracting and procurement opportunities. Do you have ethnic minorities getting procurement opportunities?
So I think -- I think he probably understands this isn't going to pass, but there is a larger discussion as Paul said.
KING: You make -- you make decisions, especially if you're in a position of leadership, you make decisions about when to talk about things, and the Democrats just took the majority. They won't actually get it until January.
You worked for a guy, Bill Clinton, who was elected as a different kind of Democrat, came out of the box with gays in the military, don't ask, don't tell, and a health care plan that everybody thought was a big liberal gobbledygook.
You have to make decisions in politics.
BEGALA: That's right.
KING: Is it a bad decision to be talking about this right now?
BEGALA: It's the timing. Right? In fact, the gays in the military thing came up on Veterans Day, November 11, right after the November election but before President Clinton was sworn in. In a heartbeat, of course.
No, I think people should be allowed to serve equally. I don't think they ought to discriminate. But it came up in that interregnum after Governor Clinton had won the election but before President Clinton had been inaugurated. And there's a news vacuum there and a power vacuum for the recipient of the -- of the victory, right? And the Democrats in the same position.
Ms. Pelosi won't become Speaker Pelosi until January. Charlie Rangel will not become the chairman until January. So now, all they can still do is just talk.
But it is -- this spring we will have the 500,000th American serve in Americorps. And we could require every young person to serve our country. It would cost about $15 billion or $20 billion a year. It would be the best money we ever spent. I mean, that's what we spend in about four months in Iraq. And it would transform America. They wouldn't all have to go over to Iraq, thank God, but they could serve here at home. And I -- I think it would be -- a lot of conservative Republicans support national service. Thad Cochran, conservative Republican senator from Mississippi, a lot of Democrats, like Hillary Clinton, are pushing it. So, maybe we can find common ground on national service here.
(CROSSTALK)
WATTS: Forcing them to do it, what -- you take out the volunteer portion.
And, so, I -- I'm not so sure that it's the right thing to say, or it's the best thing so say, let's force them to do it.
Concerning Charlie Rangel and the timing, I know Charlie well enough to know, the timing might be bad, but you don't tell Charlie Rangel when to talk about something.
(LAUGHTER)
KING: Well, we're going to -- we're going to talk to Charlie in the next hour. And we will bring that point up.
(CROSSTALK)
KING: I want to move, more broadly, to the Iraq strategy debate.
You have an internal review at the Pentagon, in cooperation with the White House, under way. You have the Jim Baker-led Iraq Study Group. We're about a month away from those recommendations.
In the middle of that, you have a guy, influential voice, especially on your side of the aisle, the Republican side, Henry Kissinger, who says he doesn't see military victory as possible in Iraq anymore.
If you're the president of the United States, about to get greeted by a Democratic majority in Congress, and a man who the White House concedes is an occasional adviser on Iraq is going out, saying there's not a winnable military strategy, you're pretty lonely, aren't you?
WATTS: Well, and, John, I'm not so sure that a military strategy, under this strategy, would ever win. I think it was a good idea, bad execution.
And I think, in terms of execution, that's what they're looking at, to say, how do we tweak this thing? How do we shape this thing up through -- I think they will look at the Baker-Hamilton report.
That will -- they will -- they're making some recommendations, obviously. But, military strategy, more troops in may be the answer, but more troops in, under this strategy, I'm not so sure that -- there's a lot of wisdom in that. KING: And if -- if there is a proposal on the table that is 80 percent of what the Democrats like, but it says, in the short term, more troops in to establish improved security first, then start bringing them home, Democrats sign on to that, or will they just keep screaming, bring them home?
BEGALA: I -- I think they might be open to it, but the level of distrust that Democrats have for the president, the vice president, and the current secretary of defense, Donald Rumsfeld, is extraordinary. That's why the president did a very wise thing in removing Mr. Rumsfeld.
I think Republicans wish he had done so a few weeks before the election. It would have helped them politically -- but no matter. Now we're going to have a new secretary of defense. He is beginning to make the rounds on Capitol Hill. There has got to be a lot of trust-building, you know, because people who have been spat on, frankly, by the -- the White House are now in command on Capitol Hill. They're looking for a way out of Iraq. No -- they do not want to leave immediately and cut and run. So, yes, I think they could be open to it, but the -- it's going to have to take a lot to build some trust there.
KING: And are you convinced that we're not just going to get a personnel change at the Pentagon; we're going to get a significant policy change? The president says he is waiting for these proposals. But he seems to be trying to buy time until they're on his desk.
Every time someone asks him, should the troops come home, should you do this, should you do that, the president seems to be pushing back, saying, we are going to keep doing what we're doing, until we do something else.
WATTS: Well...
(LAUGHTER)
WATTS: John, I think the fact that they have chosen Bob Gates as the new secretary of defense, I think, is a signal that they're looking for a different strategy, a different policy.
I think he will be helpful, in terms of bringing some Democrats on board. I think the Democrats have been yelling and screaming: We want change. We want change.
Now they have gotten change. Now, if they're going to continue to fight that change, or fight Bob Gates, then, that shows that all those arguments were political arguments. They -- they really didn't want solutions.
So, I think Bob Gates is a signal that there will be something different going on in Iraq.
(CROSSTALK)
BEGALA: Bob Gates, currently president of Texas A&M, which is going to lose bad Friday against my Texas Longhorns. I had to get that in, King.
KING: All right. All right.
Well, you got that...
BEGALA: Go, Horns.
KING: You got that in, so I'm going to time out -- time out for a second, while we make a little change.
(LAUGHTER)
KING: Up next: much more of our "Strategy Session." Will Barack Obama throw his hat into the presidential ring? And, if he does, what are his chances? Paul Begala and J.C. will be back with us to weigh in on that and much, much more.
And we have been talking about Charlie Rangel and his proposal to reinstate the military draft. He will join us live, right here in THE SITUATION ROOM, next hour.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: Back to our "Strategy Session" in a moment, but, first, though, we want to update you on a major developing story.
We have on the telephone Police Chief Rex Reynolds of Huntsville, Alabama -- a tragic school bus crash earlier today, a bus going over an overpass -- at least three students dead.
Chief Reynolds, thanks for joining us in THE SITUATION ROOM.
Is that the latest, sir, three dead?
REX REYNOLDS, HUNTSVILLE, ALABAMA, POLICE CHIEF: That is correct.
We -- we have had 43 total victims, 33 treated at Huntsville Hospital, 10 treated at Crestwood Hospital, and -- and now confirming three -- three deaths.
KING: And, sir, what can you tell us about the conditions of those still being treated?
REYNOLDS: We have several that -- that are -- that are -- remain in very critical condition at this point.
We -- we have numerous victims with -- with broken bones, head lacerations -- and, of course, continuing to treat those victims as we speak.
KING: As we speak with you, sir, we're showing some pictures of this horrific crash up on wall -- the front of this bus obviously significantly damaged, after going over the overpass. Can you tell us, to the best of your knowledge, just how this happened?
REYNOLDS: What we have got right now in the investigation is the -- the city school bus from Lee High School was en route to the city trade center, westbound on Interstate 565. And it appears that a small compact car, also driven by a student, cut in front of and/or got close to the front of the bus, causing the bus to -- to -- to veer toward the -- the ramp, and actually lost control, flipped over the ramp, and landed upside down in a -- in a street below.
KING: And how far of a drop was that, sir?
REYNOLDS: It's probably about 40 feet.
KING: About 40 feet down. And you say the bus -- we see the -- we're seeing -- seeing pictures of the bus now, which has been uprighted. When the bus landed, it was -- it landed upside down?
REYNOLDS: It did, hit engine compartment first, and then rolled.
KING: And, as -- as you know, sir, when there are tragic accidents like this from time to time, there is a reassessment of what should the safety standards be on a school bus like this. I assume there are no seat belts on this bus.
REYNOLDS: I can't confirm or deny that there was seat belts there.
And, certainly, that is the question that has already come to light today. And -- and I'm -- I'm sure that's something that the NTSB will certainly look at, and -- and make part their safety recommendations, after their investigation of the accident.
KING: And any indication, sir, that the bus was traveling at an unsafe speed when the smaller car tried to cut in front of it, or made contact with it? Or, to the best of your knowledge, was the driver doing everything right up until the point of impact?
REYNOLDS: Well, obviously, at this point, we don't have those answers, that we -- we have got NTSB, state officials, local officers on the scene, continuing to do the diagrams and the investigation. And -- and I think we -- we best wait to hear those results before making that statement.
KING: Chief Rex Reynolds of the Huntsville, Alabama, Police Department, sir, thank you so much for your time. And we will check back in with you as this investigation continues. Thank you for your time on what is a very difficult day in your community.
Thank you, sir.
REYNOLDS: Thank you, sir.
KING: Want to continue now our "Strategy Session" with Paul Begala, Democratic strategist, J.C. Watts, former Republican congressman.
A bit earlier today, big event out in Chicago today -- the Congress isn't in session until back in January, but some people, apparently, think it's their best interests to get out there and stay active. One of them is Barack Obama, who says himself he might run for president, your party's nomination, next year, gave a major speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs today.
I want you to listen to one little bit of that piece. And we will talk a little bit more about Senator Barack Obama.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), ILLINOIS: They are the soul-trying times that our forbearers spoke of, when the ease of complacency and self- interest must give way to the more difficult task of rendering judgment on what is best for the nation and for posterity.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: The soul-trying times our forbearers spoke of, posterity. That is not a senator on the subcommittee for this, that, and the other thing. That is a guy who is trying to talk big.
BEGALA: And I think it's great. It's great for the country. It's certainly good for my party, the Democrats.
We have really huge challenges in this country. And, if all the speculation about Senator Obama running for president, and others, prompts these folks to think through these big issues, so much the better, when we're watching, in the Republican Party, John McCain calling for more troops to go into Iraq. I think that is probably what spurred Charlie Rangel to say we need a draft to accommodate them.
Now we have, in my party, Senator Obama talking about a different approach. I think that it can only benefit. And -- and it's really great for my party that there is a star like this who is so ascendant. With all respect to Republicans -- and they have some remarkable talents, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and John McCain -- there's nobody on their side who has emerged like this in the last year or two, the way Barack Obama has in my party.
KING: Our Don Lemon sat down with him after, and asked him the question. You recall quite well Colin Powell was thinking about running for president. And his wife, Alma, was having nightmares that, as an African-American, somebody would try to kill him.
Is the country ready for an African-American president? I know you're a Republican. You probably wouldn't vote for Barack Obama, but...
WATTS: Well, you know, but, John, I think the thing that Senator -- Senator Obama has done is, I think he has challenged America in his speeches and his thought processes, to think about what we want to be as a nation when we grow up. I think John McCain gave a speech at GOPAC last week. I think he -- he does that. I think Newt Gingrich does that very well, Mike Huckabee, Bill Richardson. I mean, there's a lot of candidates out that are looking to get away from the push-button issues, to say, we have got to be bigger than that. And Barack does a great job of that.
KING: I want you to listen to one other point. He is obviously trying to build some foreign affairs, foreign relations credentials.
I want you to listen to one other snippet of the senator's speech.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: There have been too many excuses. There have been too many flag-draped coffins. And there have been too many heartbroken families. The time for waiting in Iraq is over. It is time to change our policy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: A hundred members of the United States Senate, I don't think any of them would disagree with anything he said in that statement.
Right before he said there have been too many excuses, he said there have been too many speeches. He also says he is not auditioning.
He is auditioning, isn't he?
BEGALA: Sure he is. Of course he is. But, you know, I mean, that's part of it, too, is that -- I think what's hard is, he's getting the attention, because a lot of people think he might run for president.
KING: Risk -- risk in getting a lot of attention, isn't there?
BEGALA: But -- there is, but let's give the attention where it belongs. Let's take a look at this speech, at the ideas that he puts forward, and see if they have merit.
One of the things that frustrated me a lot when -- when -- when you were covering us, and I was working for Bill Clinton -- he was the governor of Arkansas -- he began his campaign in 1991 by giving four one-hour-long lectures at Georgetown University, his alma mater, about policy.
KING: I stayed awake through all of them.
BEGALA: We couldn't -- well, you covered it for the AP.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: You did. But we couldn't get TV networks, including the one I work for now, to cover us, for love or money. And it wasn't until -- I -- I -- I can't remember her name -- some woman came out and said she had an affair with him, that anybody ever covered Bill Clinton. So, I -- let's hope...
(CROSSTALK)
KING: That was Gennifer with a G.
BEGALA: Was that?
(LAUGHTER)
KING: Yes.
BEGALA: Let's hope we take this candidacy more seriously.
KING: Well, on the serious point, I want you to look at this poll, J.C. Watts
This is November 17-19. Registered Democrats, choice for their nominee in 2008, Clinton, Hillary Clinton, 33 percent, Barack Obama, 15 percent, John Edwards, 14, Al Gore, 14, John Kerry, 7.
If you're Barack Obama, that's not bad. You're in a statistical dead heat with the vice presidential nominee last year, the former vice president and the former presidential nominee. If you're looking at those numbers, and you're Barack Obama, you're probably going to run, aren't you?
WATTS: Well, they would be encouraging. And I think he said that it's encouraging what he has gotten on the campaign trail, as he has been out there giving speeches for his colleagues in the Senate and the House and so forth.
But -- but, John, again, I -- I would hope that people would get beyond the speeches and the platitudes and the push-button issues, and think in a -- in a -- on a broader scale.
You know, what candidate on the Republican and the Democrat side, what candidate is out there, talking about 15, 20 years down the road, not just to the next election? And I -- I -- again, I think Barack Obama is a candidate that kind of stirs the imagination of the American people. He's -- he will be someone to be dealt with on the Democrats' side.
KING: We need to leave it there because of time issues, but we will talk about this more. And I promise I will do my David Letterman. And we will try to take the poll numbers and do that.
(LAUGHTER)
KING: And we will try to talk about some policy down the road.
(LAUGHTER) KING: Paul Begala, J.C. Watts, thank you both very much.
And Paul and J.C., of course, both also part of the best political team on television.
No more Horns.
(LAUGHTER)
KING: And, remember, for the latest...
(CROSSTALK)
WATTS: Happy Thanksgiving.
KING: Happy Thanksgiving.
(LAUGHTER)
KING: That's a little bit later in the week for me.
But for you, both, great.
And, for the latest political news at any time, check out the Political Ticker at CNN.com/ticker.
Coming up: He lost control while driving, and wound up killing 10 people. Now an 89-year-old man learns his punishment.
Also: A former Russian spy is sick, after being poisoned. But who is responsible? Our Paula Newton will have a report on it in the next hour.
Stay right here. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: Carol Costello joins us from New York with a closer look at other stories making news.
Hi, Carol.
COSTELLO: Hi, John.
Hello to all of you.
A light sentence -- a light sentence, as in no prison time, for an 89-year-old man who killed 10 people, after he lost control of his car and it careened through a farmer's market in Los Angeles. The judge says he believes George Weller should go to prison, but just he's too sick.
Instead, the judge sentenced Weller to five years felony probation. He could have gotten 18 years. The judge says he doesn't understand Weller's stubborn and bull-headed refusal to accept responsibility. Weller also faces $34,000 in penalties, and has been ordered to pay restitution to survivors of those who were killed.
Maybe this will be the most effective answer. Alcohol-detecting devices in cars may eliminate drunk driving. That's the focus of a new campaign launched today by Mothers Against Drunk Driving. The organization wants states to pass laws requiring breath tests interlock devices in cars for anyone who has been convicted of drunken driving, even after the first offense. The device shuts down the car if alcohol is detected on the driver's breath.
Who knew? Kramer, Michael Richards of "Seinfeld" fame, has made a whole lot of people angry. Richards went on a three-minute-long racist tirade at L.A.'s Laugh Factory. He exploded in anger when some black men heckled him from the crowd. He told CNN the next day that he was sorry about the incident and that he had made amends. Amends to who, we don't know yet.
Today, Jerry Seinfeld said he's just sick over this. And he said -- quote -- "I'm sure Michael is also sick over this horrible, horrible mistake. It is so extremely offensive. I feel terrible for all the people who have been hurt."
We haven't heard directly from Mr. Richards yet, though, John.
KING: Well, I suspect...
COSTELLO: He used some serious -- I mean, he used N-word several times, and more.
KING: He did. He's -- as Ricky would say, he's got some 'splainin' to do.
COSTELLO: Yeah.
KING: Carol Costello, thank you very much.
Up next: a race still unresolved. And guess where it is? It's in Florida, concerning the seat held by outgoing Republican Congresswoman Katherine Harris, a race some liken to a never-ending election.
And do Democrats want Senator John Kerry to make another run for the White House? Our new poll numbers in today's "Political Radar."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: Let me make it crystal clear, as...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: The never-ending election tops today's "Political Radar."
Nearly two weeks after Election Day, and still no resolution in Florida's 13th District. State officials today certified Republican Vern Buchanan as the winner by fewer than 400 votes in the House race there -- this after a manual recount last week.
But Democrat Christine Jennings is suing for a new election. She says thousands of voting machines in Sarasota County did not work properly. The seat is held by Republican Congresswoman Harris, who gave it up for a failed Senate run. Harris, of course, is no stranger to recounts. You might remember, she was the secretary of state during the 2000 Florida presidential recount.
We may get results today in the battle for New Mexico's first congressional district. Incumbent Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson leads by just shy of 900 votes over her Democratic challenger, and state attorney general, Patricia Madrid. Democrats may call for a recount there.
With the Florida and New Mexico House battle still up for grabs, and four other races still not called, here is how the balance of power currently stands. The Democrats control 232 seats, Republicans, 197. That's a pickup so far of 29 seats for the Democrats. The remaining races are all currently Republican-controlled, which means none of the Democrats running for reelection this year lost.
John Kerry says he is still thinking about another presidential run. On yesterday's Sunday's talk shows, the senator from Massachusetts said he doesn't think his recent botched joke about President Bush and U.S. troops in Iraq will affect his decision. But it appears that many Democrats may not be too excited about another Kerry run for the White House. More than half of the Democrats we questioned in our new poll out just today don't want Senator Kerry as their presidential nominee.
Next: The U.S. Mint unveils designs for some new coins. We will tell you just who's on them.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: Your pockets are about to get a little heavier. The U.S. Mint is introducing new dollars coins. And while they won't replace the dollar bill, Americans can expect to see some new faces on their loose change.
Details now from Internet reporter Abbi Tatton -- Abbi.
ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: John, unveiled today, designs for the first four of the presidential $1 coins, starting, rolled out in February with George Washington. They have a presidential portrait on one side, the Statue of Liberty on the other.
And four per year will be issued from next year in order that the presidents served. Now, this, of course, is not the first time the U.S. Mint has tried a dollar coin. Previous incarnations have not exactly been a hit with the American public.
But research conducted by the U.S. Mint suggests that these will go down better, be more popular as collector's items, coming in the wake of the popular 50-state quarters programs that has over 140 million Americans collecting, and has raised more than $6 billion in revenue.
The new schedule for the dollar coins is online at the U.S. Mint Web site. No living president will be on a coin. But every president will appear, regardless of the circumstances by which they left office. You can expect the Richard Nixon coin arriving in your pockets in 2016 -- John.
KING: Sure to be popular.
Abbi Tatton -- thank you very much, Abbi.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.voxant.com
