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Senate Committee Holds Hearings on Confirmation of Robert Gates; Nuri al-Maliki Plans to Send Envoys to Neighboring Countries

Aired December 05, 2006 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, just a quick question. You know, I'm wondering -- I heard that response to Carl Levin's question and Robert Gates saying, no, we're not -- we're not winning in Iraq right now. And I'm wondering if it's easier for him to be so definitive, to be so direct in the aftermath of the Rumsfeld memo that essentially says the same thing, that it is time for a major course correction, a major change in Iraq.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes. And I think he did get a commitment from President Bush when he agreed to give up his post as president of Texas A&M University, that he was going to be able to come in and bring, as he says, a fresh set of eyes to these issues, especially the sensitive, the critical life-and-death issue of Iraq. And he was going to be able to speak his mind and make it clear, even when he deviated, when he moved away from longstanding administration policy enunciated by the president, the vice president, or the secretary of defense. and he's making that clear right now.

There's no doubt that he's coming in with his own opinions, with his own assessment. But he is going in with an open mind, if you will, ready to make recommendations to the president and be blunt.

Just wait until we hear that exchange with Carl Levin, that direct little exchange where Carl Levin said to him, "Do you believe we're winning in Iraq?" And he says, "No, sir."

HARRIS: Yes.

BLITZER: And that's going to be contrasted to what the president was asked the other day, "Do you believe we're winning in Iraq?" And he said, "Yes."

And there's going to be a contrast there. And I suspect, though the president is going to say, I want to hear all of these views. And you're right, Tony, the memo that was leaked to "The New York Times" over the weekend from Rumsfeld saying the United States, in effect, needs some major adjustments because it's not going the way the U.S. wanted, is, in effect, opening up the door for Robert Gates to be increasingly more candid as he -- as he goes through this process.

HARRIS: There was also a mention that -- if you were listening closely, it doesn't sound like there's going to be any early withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.

And Joe, if you would, get this sound bite from Ken Pollack ready.

He also said that decisions made in the coming months will have an impact on the broader Middle East.

And Wolf, if you would, listen to the comments from Ken Pollack from the Brookings Institution yesterday in his conversation with Betty, and let me have you respond.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KENNETH POLLACK, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Well, I certainly think that we are already in a state of civil war in Iraq. It's probably a low to mid-level civil war.

The problem is, is that the trend lines are very bad. It is headed toward the kind of Bosnia-like or Lebanon-like or Congo-like all-out civil war. And, you know, what we've seen, Betty, historically is that those kind of civil wars do have a tendency to spread.

One civil war can cause another civil war. Remember the civil war in Rwanda that ultimately caused the civil war in Congo. Civil war in Palestine, today the state of Israel, caused civil war in Jordan, which caused civil war in Lebanon, which caused civil war in Syria.

So there's a very big danger of this situation getting further out of hand.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: And very quickly, let me just sort of reset where we are right now.

We're continuing to follow this morning's confirmation hearing for Robert Gates. You see him there, at the top of your screen to the right there, to become the next secretary of defense. Senators are questioning the nominee right now. And shortly we will be hearing from senators Lindsey Graham, John Cornyn, Hillary Rodham Clinton, and Evan Bayh.

But right now, let's get back to Wolf Blitzer for just a little more context on what we've heard so far in the last, oh, 90 minutes or so of the confirmation hearing.

And wolf, you heard from Ken Pollack there. If you take those comments, if you listen to what we heard from Robert Gates this morning, if you were looking for Robert Gates to be the man to usher an early withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, he may not be your man.

BLITZER: Well, he did make it clear the United States is going to have to have a military presence in Iraq, he says, for a long time. Those are his words.

He says there could be a reduced presence and he suspects there will be a reduced presence. It will be dramatically smaller, but he thinks the United States is going to have to stay militarily put in Iraq for a long time to come.

HARRIS: Yes.

BLITZER: And I think that's not necessarily what a lot of the critics want to hear.

HARRIS: OK. Wolf Blitzer, much more with you this afternoon. We will certainly be watching "THE SITUATION ROOM" this afternoon at 4:00 Eastern Time, again in primetime at 7:00.

Wolf, thank you so much for your help this morning. We appreciate it.

BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: We do want to check in now with CNN Pentagon correspondent, Barbara Starr.

And as we've been listening to these hearings, Barbara, I think something that has been evidently clear is that gates has been very candid today. And I want you to take a listen now to what he said about why he is undergoing these hearings and why he wants this job.

Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERT GATES, DEFENSE SECRETARY NOMINEE: Senator, I am not giving up the president -- presidency of Texas A&M, the job that I've probably enjoyed more than any I've ever had, making considerable personal financial sacrifice and, frankly, going through this process to come back to Washington to be a bump on a log and not to say exactly what I think and to speak candidly and frankly, boldly to people at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue about what I believe and what I think needs to be done.

I intend to listen closely to people. I intend to draw my own conclusions. And I'll make my recommendations.

But I can assure you that I don't owe anybody anything. And I've come back here to do the best I can for the men and women in uniform and for the country in terms of these difficult problems that we face.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NGUYEN: He says he doesn't owe anyone anything. And he wants to do the best he can for this country. But at the same time, Barbara, he also said, as to the question of, are we winning in Iraq, he said the answer to that is no.

How is that going to resonate with the troops on the ground?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Betty, I think it's going to be very significant. You know, what we're seeing here as we watch this hearing is the political world of Washington. But out on the ground in Iraq, where you have 150,000 troops essentially on the front line, what they are hearing today is their next boss, the next secretary of defense, saying that they're not winning. Now, that may be very candid in the political world and it may be very welcome in Washington, but that's not the message that the troops had been receiving from their bosses out in Iraq. So this may be very difficult news if troops are out there watching this on TV, listening on the radio, hearing all of this, that Bob Gates is saying we're not winning. Because also, one of the things we've heard in this hearing is the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff publicly now essentially saying the same thing.

It's now been reported and confirmed that General Peter Pace, in an off-the-record session yesterday -- this was said at today's hearing, so it's now out there in public -- General Pace was asked, "Are we winning the war?" General Pace said, "We're not winning, but we're not losing."

So the troops are now hearing for really the first time from two very senior leaders, one leader to be, that they're not winning the war in Iraq. That may be very tough business. And Mr. Gates, when confirmed, may be addressing the troops very quickly, trying to explain his views about this.

And again, the issue is, for the military it is a different world than for the politicians. Everything that they're talking about at this hearing, all these options, all the strategies, are things that the military has been looking at, has been considering. Very tough business to turn some of these political ideas into reality on the ground in Iraq.

Putting more troops in, very tough. Turning security over to the Iraqis more quickly, very tough.

We had just returned from traveling with General Abizaid over the weekend in Iraq. And I can tell you, he is very aware of all of these ideas, all of these options. But what he and General Casey are looking at there, out at in Iraq, is a very complex situation. Some areas relatively calm, some areas are simply not under anyone's control.

Some areas of Baghdad remain under Shiite militia control. And no matter how many troops you put in, that will be very tough. Some Iraqi police units, some Iraqi army units not loyal to the central government in Iraq. They're working on it, but tough business ahead.

So for the military hearing everything we're hearing today, translating this into real action out on the ground in Iraq is still something that may be some ways off -- Betty.

NGUYEN: Barbara Starr with a reality check for us today.

Thank you, Barbara.

HARRIS: And let's talk now to CNN military analyst retired Major General Don Shepperd. He is keeping a close watch on the Gates confirmation process. He joins us from Tucson.

Don, as always, great to talk to you. MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: My pleasure, Tony.

HARRIS: What do you think -- what do you think -- let me -- let me -- let me take Betty's question and turn it to you. What do you think it means to the men and women on the ground when they hear the man who will be confirmed as the next secretary of defense, when they hear this man say that, no, sir, we're not winning the war in Iraq?

SHEPPERD: Yes, I'd make a couple points here, Tony. First of all, Barbara Starr has it pretty much nailed.

It's tough for the troops in the field to hear they're out there being exposed to danger every day, going through IEDs, out on patrols, and to hear that they are not winning. But it's also necessary for somebody to come in and say, look, we're not winning, we need a change of course, we need new ideas.

The troops are going to do what they're told, and basically they want to know that what they're doing is meaningful. So it's a hard message, but an absolutely necessary message, Tony.

HARRIS: And then insufficient troops in Iraq after the fall of Saddam to secure the country. I know this is looking backwards just a bit, but it was a question and a response from Senator McCain.

You can make the argument a couple of ways, that if there were more troops, less men and women would have been killed in combat, but that can also cut the other way.

What do you think of that message now?

SHEPPERD: Yes, this is -- it's very clear that we had enough troops to do the military mission, the combat mission, the push (ph) into Baghdad in 30 days. We simply did not have enough troops to stabilize and rebuild the country afterwards.

HARRIS: Yes.

SHEPPERD: That's very clear to everybody out there. The question is, what do we do now?

Senator McCain is pushing for the possibility of putting in more troops. Dr. Gates said he would look at it. I think it's highly unlikely. The move is going to be to train the Iraqi security forces as rapidly as possible, turn the country over to them, and then support them for an extended period of time, Tony.

HARRIS: How is -- give me your honest assessment of how that is going. And it always comes down to how long and to what level are we trying to train the Iraqi forces. Do we want them to be the equal of U.S. forces?

SHEPPERD: They will never be the equal of U.S. forces. That would be great if they could, but they will not be. I was on a conference call with General Caldwell from Baghdad this morning talking about this. Three of the 10 Iraqi divisions have taken over control of their areas. Prime Minister al-Maliki has said that he wishes to have the other seven take over the control of their areas by June.

Now, that is possible to train them up. And that training is going well, and the forces are doing well within their capabilities. What they don't have is logistics support, air support, the long-term support that they need.

And so you're going to see trainers with them for a long period of time. Ideally, we would stay for years and not only train them, but watch them develop, make them better, and what have you. It doesn't look like that's in the cards, Tony. We're going to be there with trainers for a long time, but our combat forces are probably going to be reduced, and probably by the summer.

HARRIS: You know, I heard -- I heard the nominee mention that, too. Logistics, better with logistics and better with air. Are we there to train and build an Iraqi air force?

SHEPPERD: We are there right now to do several things -- conduct combat operations on our own, which is going to be reduced, no question. And I suspect the Iraqi Study Group on Wednesday will recommend that.

We are there to train Iraqi forces, and that means forces of all. That means the police, that means the Iraqi army, that means the border guards, and it also means the air force. And yes, indeed, we will be constructing that air force, and that has already started, Tony.

HARRIS: Well, that's what -- that -- now we have a clear understanding of what we mean about the job ahead, how difficult it can be, and how long we will need to be there.

Don, great to talk to you. Hope you can stick around with us.

SHEPPERD: A pleasure.

NGUYEN: Well, President Bush's choice to replace Donald Rumsfeld making his case this morning. Here's another live look as the hearing continues.

We do have complete coverage of Robert Gates' confirmation hearing. Just shortly, we'll hear from a man who worked with Gates at the CIA and bring you more of that hearing live.

You are in the NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: And we are continuing to follow this morning's confirmation hearing for Robert Gates to be the next secretary of defense. Questioning going on right now. But right now we want to bring in CNN national security adviser John McLaughlin, joining us now from Washington with his insights on the Gates nomination and today's hearing.

John, as always, good to talk to you.

Generally speaking, give us your impressions of how the hearing is going so far and your impressions of Robert Gates, a man you know well.

JOHN MCLAUGHLIN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Well, I think Mr. Gates probably is very pleased with the way things are going so far. And I think the senators also are probably very pleased and maybe a little disarmed.

As Wolf Blitzer pointed out a few minutes ago, Bob Gates has been very blunt, very clear in his answers to some questions on which he could have equivocated, but he did not. He said quite clearly that he thought we did not have enough combat troops after major hostilities had ended. Said very clearly that we were not winning.

And having testified in front of these senators quite often myself, typically they have a long line of questioning that they're going to pursue, particularly former prosecutors like Senator Levin, in the event you equivocate. And I think Mr. Gates was so clear on those points that it helped to move things along.

It doesn't surprise me that he's being clear. This is a man who prepares carefully for everything, who knows his own mind. Probably has anticipated all of these questions. And I don't expect that he'll be surprised by anything here.

HARRIS: John, it sounds like -- it sounds like Robert Gates is, perhaps, more willing than his soon-to-be predecessor to work with the director of National Intelligence, John Negroponte, in a way, at least legend has it, that Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld wasn't.

Did you hear that exchange? And what did you think of that?

MCLAUGHLIN: Well, I did hear it, and it's particularly noteworthy in that Bob Gates, of course, was critical of this restructuring that created the director of National Intelligence for a variety of reasons.

That said, having sat briefly in the same chair at CIA that Bob Gates occupied, I can tell you this, anyone who sits there, looking at it from that vantage point, knows that the leader of the intelligence community must have a good working relationship with the secretary of defense. Because at the end of the day, one of your missions is to support American forces around the world.

So he's seen that from both sides of the equation. And I think he now knows as secretary of defense that he needs a good relationship with the director of National Intelligence for exactly that reason.

He will need to reach into the intelligence community for support on everything from conditions in the countries overseas, to the strength of opposing forces. And I think he's uniquely equipped. As I think back over secretaries of defense, I think Bob Gates is probably uniquely equipped to understand and employ the capabilities of the intelligence community. So I'm anticipating an era of almost unprecedented smooth operation between intelligence and defense here.

NGUYEN: John, this is Betty Nguyen. I've got a question for you.

NGUYEN: Hi, Betty.

NGUYEN: Hi there.

I know you know Robert Gates very well. And let me ask you this about his leadership style since you do know him. How is he going to vary, primarily against Donald Rumsfeld? How do you see him differing in his leadership style?

MCLAUGHLIN: Well, I think we got a couple signals of that in the hearing this morning. Once or twice, he referred to his intention to consult commanders, he referred to General Casey in particular when a particular question came up. So I think he will want to be very open to the views of the professional military. And equally important, be seen quite visibly and openly as being open to them.

The other thing I would say about his management style -- and let me take you back to his tenure as the deputy national security adviser versus his tenure as the director of Central Intelligence. In those days, in the late '80s, I had the opportunity to sit on the beck bench, if you will, in the situation room, when he would chair meetings of the deputy heads of the departments. And he did that with, I thought, extraordinary efficiency and acumen, more so than just about anyone I've ever seen run those meetings.

His tendency in those meetings was to come -- I think this speaks to his management style -- come very prepared, understand all the papers that had been done, have his own views carefully formed. He drew out divergent opinions. He looked for a consensus. He made clear if someone had a different point of view that it could be on the table.

The group then made a decision and he gave, I thought, careful attention to implementing that decision. So from start to finish, from problem definition through implementation of a decision, I saw a person who was extraordinarily hardworking and careful, open to other views.

So I think that speaks a lot to his management style. The way I would put a period on that is, I don't think I've ever seen anyone run a meeting better than Bob Gates. And in Washington, meetings can be just deadly and endless and indecisive. That's not his style.

HARRIS: Well, John, let me ask you this question. So, explain to us the rather lengthy response to the question about his relationship with former secretary of state, George Shultz. Take us back to those days when Robert Gates was the deputy director of the CIA under William Casey.

MCLAUGHLIN: Well, I was down in the lower ranks of the agency in that period, so I watched that from afar.

I think what Bob Gates said had some truth to it, that Secretary Shultz, whom I've spoken with about those days, did not have a good personal relationship with Director Casey. And beyond simply the personal dynamics, sharply disagreed with him on just about every policy issue.

Casey was an individual, as director, who in many respects sought to be a policymaker and made no secret about it. So that -- that made for a lot of tension. And Bob Gates, as Casey's deputy during that period, was in a very difficult spot, as you can imagine.

HARRIS: I got you. Yes.

MCLAUGHLIN: That, I think, probably had some of that animus that Shultz felt toward Casey must have spilled over on to Gates for reasons that, in some cases, were fair, perhaps, and in other cases not so fair. I don't know what Secretary Shultz would say today, but I would suspect he might just wish Bob Gates the best of luck in these circumstances.

HARRIS: Yes.

NGUYEN: Well, John, since you do know Bob Gates so well, I want to ask you two of the most important questions that Americans are asking. How is he going to get our troops out of Iraq, and when? What do you know about that?

MCLAUGHLIN: Well, I don't know anything about that specifically. And I think he'll be very guarded in his responses on that -- on those issues. I think there are a couple of clues in what we've heard so far.

At one point during the hearing, he responded to a question by saying that there would have to be an American presence at some level for some period of time given the weaknesses on the Iraqi side. He's also said in his, I believe, 65-page response to the senators' questions, something to the effect that, were we to leave Iraq in chaos, it would have disastrous consequences throughout the Middle East.

So I think he is going to want to have fresh eyes, adopt a new policy. But bear in mind now as he does that, he's walking between two themes that are present in this very committee.

There are people on the committee like Senator McCain -- and I don't think Lindsey Graham is on this company. Yes, he is on this committee.

NGUYEN: Yes, he is.

HARRIS: Yes.

MCLAUGHLIN: He is, indeed. He is, indeed. And the two of them, as you know, talk in terms of possibly increasing troops.

HARRIS: Yes.

MCLAUGHLIN: And Senator Graham talks in terms, in fact said the other day on the weekly news programs that he would be looking for Bob Gates to explain how he wants to assure victory. He uses that word.

On the other hand, Senator Levin and some of the others on the committee certainly don't talk in terms of defeat, but they talk in terms of setting a timetable. So he's got those two polls of difference here, and I don't think we're going to see him in this hearing -- I would be surprised if he took a position between those polls.

NGUYEN: To give some hard answers today.

MCLAUGHLIN: Yes. Knowing Bob Gates, he's going to want to talk to everyone and look at the situation in great detail.

NGUYEN: Well, and that's what he said. He said all the options are on the table.

HARRIS: Yes.

NGUYEN: John McLaughlin, we appreciate your time today.

Our CNN national security adviser.

MCLAUGHLIN: Thank you.

HARRIS: and once again, we are following the hearing as it proceeds right now for Robert Gates, the confirmation hearing. Senators are asking questions right now, as you can see.

Joe Lieberman is having his turn to ask questions of the nominee. We'll take a break and come back to more of the hearings in a moment.

NGUYEN: Also head, an expert who helped the Iraq Study Group draw up advice on the war.

You're watching CNN, the most trusted name in news.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: OK. And once again, we continue to follow the big developments going on actually all week long. Right now in Washington, D.C., the confirmation hearing for Robert Gates to become the next secretary of defense.

Obviously, this is a very, very big week for Iraq policy. Again, the confirmation hearing going on right now. But there are also developments in Iraq.

Let's get to CNN's Ben Wedeman, who is in Baghdad right now with news from the prime minister's office -- Ben.

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right, Tony.

Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, put out a statement today saying that his government will be hosting a national reconciliation conference sometime in the middle of the month. The point of it is to bring all the parties and other groups here in Iraq, many of them mutually hostile, to come around to a conference table and discuss ways to stop, in his words, the shedding of Iraqi blood.

He's also saying that after this conference is held, there may be a cabinet reshuffle. But, of course, given the level of violence and disorder on the streets of Baghdad and throughout the country, it's questionable whether this conference will actually even go ahead -- Tony.

HARRIS: And Ben, do we have any idea of who might be invited to such a summit? Abdul Aziz al-Hakim was in Washington with the president yesterday. We wonder if Muqtada al-Sadr might be invited. Any idea?

WEDEMAN: We don't have a list of invitees as it stands now, but certainly, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim who has the largest Shiite block in parliament would be somebody you would want to invite to such a conference. Muqtada al-Sadr as well, really he's going to want to bring all the various groups together, the Kurds, the Shiites, the Sunnis, and other smaller minorities to take part in this conference, which certainly might be one step away from the chaos we're seeing already.

HARRIS: OK. CNN's Ben Wedeman for us in Baghdad. Ben, thank you.

NGUYEN: Well, of course, we are watching the hearings as they take place at this hour on Capitol Hill. Of course, Robert Gates looking to serve as the new defense secretary. You're looking right now as senators are questioning him. We're waiting to hear from some of the other senators as well. Some of them being Lindsay Graham, John Cornyn, Evan Bayh and of course Hillary Rodham Clinton.

And we'll be dipping in and out of that throughout the morning as we gain a little context and perspective on all that's going on today. These are very important hearings and we heard a little bit earlier today from Senator Warner that he's hoping that this would wrap up by this afternoon.

So far, what we have learned, out of Mr. Gates is that he has been very, very candid. He's been candid on his answers, especially regarding Iraq, saying something that really took some of us by surprise. Saying that he does not believe that we are winning in Iraq. And we're going to get a little more perspective on that because as you know, the White House is very much behind winning the war in Iraq.

So let's go right now to CNN White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux who is at her post this morning. I imagine there's going to be some talk about that today. The quote where we heard Mr. Gates say that, no, we're not winning in Iraq. SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, absolutely. I mean, they're keeping a very close eye on these hearings. But the White House is really not that concerned about which direction this is going to go. They are pretty confident that he's going to get confirmed as quickly as possible is what the president was emphasizing earlier today.

As you know, of course, Betty, the other focus, all eyes on what the Iraq Study Group is going to be producing, what they'll present to the president officially tomorrow. James Baker, who is the head of that commission, as you know, is going to be here at the White House in about an hour or so, he's having lunch with the president. The press secretary saying simply to give him a sense of the direction of the report, the process, and how they came to consensus.

One reporter jokingly asked him, is this the cushion before the fall here? The cushion before the slap? And he said, no, of course not. What this is is simply kind of giving a sense of the general direction of this report. And he also said, that look, if you expect a battle royale, you'll be extremely disappointed here.

What the White House is already doing Betty, here, is trying to lower the expectations of tomorrow when this report is delivered. It's going to be 7:00 in the morning here at the White House. All ten members of the Iraq Study Group will be here to formally present that the 100-page report to the president.

We are told he's going to make brief remarks about an hour after they all meet to talk a little bit about the appreciation he has for this group. But do not expect to hear any kind of recommendations or endorsements, certainly not in the days to come, but it will take a couple of weeks.

That is the Bush Administration trying to emphasize, trying to downplay, that the president is simply looking at this one group that's offering some sort of magic bullet here. They say, look, the White House has its own review, the Pentagon has its own study. The president is going to thoughtfully, deliberately look at all these kinds of things, these options, and then in a couple of weeks or so, decide what he's going to do regarding Iraq policy -- Betty.

NGUYEN: Yes, I wanted to ask you about that. You pretty much summed it up. mean, there's a lot of eyes looking to tomorrow to see what this group has to say, but essentially, what you're saying is the White House is going to be looking at it as perhaps a road map, not the end all and be all.

MALVEAUX: They're probably going to cherry pick essentially. Taking a look at this report, taking a look at these other internal investigations and essentially decide, you know, here's the way forward. We already know from White House officials, at least this is the tone that they're taking here, what they're presenting, is, look, hey, you know, we're not so worried here because at least what's come out in the press is not so different than what we've heard before in terms of no timetables, gradual look at troop withdrawals based on conditions on the ground. So that is the at least what they're presenting. We're not worried here, but as you know, the president under a lot of pressure from all sides to turn the course -- Betty.

NGUYEN: Yes, the pressure is mounting. CNN's Suzanne Malveaux at the White House for us today. Thank you Suzanne.

Let's get some more insight into what could be delivered tomorrow by this study group. Michael Eisenstadt is with us now from Washington. He's an adviser to the Iraq Study Group. And the panel will unveil, as we've been mentioning, its recommendations on Iraq and the strategy there for tomorrow. Thanks for being with us today, we appreciate it.

MICHAEL EISENSTADT, IRAQ STUDY GROUP ADVISER: Good morning.

NGUYEN: Well, talk to me -- what do you expect to hear from this study group?

EISENSTADT: Well, I'm actually as interested as everybody else in hearing what they have to say. We see some of the leaks that have appeared in the press with regard to what they're going to be recommending in terms of -- we heard about a phased drawdown, we heard about increased embedding efforts and engaging the neighbors. There's also been some other efforts in training going on at the joint chiefs and the Pentagon, that they might fold in some of the ideas there as well.

I doubt we'll hear anything that's radically new in terms of ideas. I think there's two things that really though we have to keep in mind as we look toward the future. First of all that no matter what we do, whether we stay the course or start a phased drawdown, I think things are going to get worse before they get better in Iraq, in that we have a situation where the sectarian violence is kind of reached a level in which it's self-sustaining. So, I think there's an important thing that, the American people have to, I think, adjust expectations as to what we can expect in the near future.

And then secondly, I think we have to really, perhaps rethink our strategy, which includes redefining perhaps our goals in Iraq and also looking at the means and mix. One of the problems we've been facing in Iraq from the very beginning is the failure to have the right mix between means and ends.

We have under-resourced this effort from the very beginning and we have to decide, whatever way we go forward, if there is an adjustment in our strategy in Iraq, that we have goals that are attainable and that we have -- that we devote means to achieve them. So I think those are two things to keep in mind when looking at the results of the Iraq Study Group report tomorrow.

NGUYEN: Well, I want to pick apart some of the things you just said. You talked about the possibility of a drawdown. And in doing so, how do you keep that suggestion from looking like cutting and running? EISENSTADT: Well, let me just say, first of all, I'm not sure that that's going to happen. I mean, one thing that -- I would have thought that we would have started drawing down our forces earlier this year, before the midterm elections in order to perhaps gain some political, you know, benefit in the elections from such a move.

The president, I think to his credit, felt we need to keep current force levels and decided not to play politics with force levels in Iraq. As well, General Abizaid in testimony a couple weeks ago said that he did not recommend a reduction in force levels.

So, I think there will be the instinct or the preference on the part of the White House is to keep force level where's they are. In terms of a drawdown, I think in the long term, look, even the administration wants us to draw down our force there. Everybody agrees that's the desired direction that Iraqis should pick up greater responsibility.

It's important that it be done, however, in a way though, as you say, does not create a psychological dynamic where it looks like that we're abandoning our allies in Iraq and then people stop giving intelligence to the Iraqi security forces. More people join the militias for security because they believe the Iraqi security forces are ineffective or they won't be around tomorrow.

And then you have a process, potentially, of demoralization of the Iraqi security forces and people start, there's a question about the very sustainability and effectiveness of the security forces if there's a perception ...

NGUYEN: Well, talking about effectiveness, you even say it will probably get worse before it gets better.

EISENSTADT: Yes.

NGUYEN: That being the case, though, how do you get the Iraqis to stand up if you don't stand down?

EISENSTADT: Well, let me just say I think one of the ways is by increasing the amount of forces we have embedded with the security forces. This provides, in a very clear way to the Iraqis who in some ways are the most important, the Iraqis and the security forces, that we are there, that we're behind them.

There's also an additional beneficial effect of the embedding process in that, particularly with the police forces, when there are coalition advisers present, they generally behave better in that they don't engage in human rights violations, ethnic cleansing and the like.

So, I think in some ways an increase in the presence of U.S. coalition advisers with the Iraqi security forces will have a beneficial effect in terms of the whole issue of death squads and the like. And it will also have a re-assuring effect with regard to the security forces that they don't have a feeling they're being abandoned and that you have people perhaps leaving the security forces for the embrace of militias because they feel that's the wave of the future.

NGUYEN: Well, do you think this study group is going to also invite, just to stabilize, not only Iraq, but the region, to suggest that there be more talks with those regional interests and that would possibly head off some fears that Iran and Syria can get involved in this and create some dangerous situations?

EISENSTADT: Well, I think that it's very important to have a dialogue with the neighbors. In general, in civil war and insurgency situations, it's very important to get the neighbors involved and to have them exert pressure on the belligerents in order to end the conflict. But the problem is, in order for that to succeed, you have to have certain prerequisites present in terms of the state of the conflict within the country in order for external pressures to have an effect.

And I think the problem that we are facing right now, is that none of the preconditions exist inside Iraq. Right now, I think a lot of the belligerents still have a lot of fight in them. They have not reached the point of exhaustion or wariness where they've concluded that they can't achieve their objectives by military means. In fact, I think there's a dynamic at work here, which from the American point of view is very negative, that they believe that, at least some of the belligerents on both sides believe, that the United States might be on the way out and that they will eventually be able to wage the war as they prefer without the constraint of the American military presence.

From the point of view of the insurgents, they, from their point of view, the Iraqi security forces won't have the benefit of American support. From the point of view of people, you know, in death squads affiliated with the security forces they won't have to deal with American constraints.

So, that's one of the things I'm worried about. Right now, I think the domestic conditions do not exist for a regional conference or the like that could, you know, bring about the end to the conflict. And to a large extent, I think the conflict, the roots of the conflict, are domestic.

The insurgents and militias are able to get funding domestically. They have all the arms they need. They don't depend on foreign resupply for their armaments. And the foreign fighters that are still coming into the country, play an important role as a combat multiplier for the insurgents, but they're really not vital for the continuation of the conflict.

NGUYEN: Yes.

EISENSTADT: The conflict has strong domestic roots. It's going to continue for, I think, for the foreseeable future. But eventually, I think, we have to think towards the future and to the time when the domestic conditions will allow, perhaps, for a political settlement and then the neighbors can play a more ...

NGUYEN: Well, no matter how you cut, it Michael, it's definitely a complex issue. And we're waiting to hear what the study group has to say, a study group you indeed consulted. Michael Eisenstadt with the Washington Institute, thanks for your time.

EISENSTADT: My pleasure.

HARRIS: So, we continue to follow this morning's confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee for Robert Gates to be the next secretary of defense. Senators are questioning the nominee right now. Once again, if you want to watch the entire hearing as it unfolds in real time, can you just go to pipeline, CNN.com/pipeline. There you can follow the hearings in their entirety.

Senator Collins now questioning the nominee. A couple of quotable moments so far, asked by Senator Levin if we're winning in Iraq. The nominee said, no, sir. And then when asked if he would be independent, the nominee said I am not coming back to be a bump on a log. We will dip in after the break and we will also attempt to get in some of the other news of the day. You're in the NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: OK, and once again, we are following closely the hearing going on right now before the Senate Armed Services Committee. The confirmation hearing for Robert Gates. You see there on your right to be the next secretary of defense.

Once again, just a couple of quick quotables. When asked by Senator Carl Levin if we're winning in Iraq, the nominee said no, sir. And then when asked if he would be independent and speak truth to power, the nominee, Robert Gates said, look, I am not coming back to be a bump on a log. We will continue to follow the hearings of course throughout the day.

Live pictures now. A story we have been following for weeks now. Probably at least a month.

NGUYEN: It's finally moving.

HARRIS: For the first time in 24 years.

NGUYEN: Yes.

HARRIS: For the first time in 24 years, the huge aircraft carrier, the USS Intrepid making its way, on the move now to Bayonne, New Jersey to go to a dry dock to be retrofitted, to be cleaned up. And then it will make its way back to its home there in New York City. This floating museum to the war effort for so many years, so much a part this country's military history, on the move right now.

Take a look at that shot there. The Hudson River there in New York City. Our picture provided to us by our affiliate there in New York, WABC and we understand that the Intrepid is getting very, very close to its destination -- Bayonne, New Jersey. So, good news. A great day for the Intrepid and for everyone, the president, Bill White, everyone who has been working to make this day happen.

NGUYEN: In the meantime though, you can say adios to transfats. That's right, New York City's Board of Health unanimously voted today to ban the unhealthy oils at restaurants. Transfats are believed to be harmful and scientists say they raise bad cholesterol and lower good cholesterol. Not so good. The fats are found in many processed foods including cookies, crackers, pancakes, you know all those things that we love to eat.

HARRIS: And some sad news to report to you. We've confirmed reporting initially from the Associated Press that a 5-year-old Albertville, Alabama boy, we told you about this story yesterday. He was abducted yesterday morning. The abduction led to an Amber Alert that we certainly told you about in the NEWSROOM.

The 5-year-old boy that you see here, the boy's body was found around 1:00 a.m. in the overnight hours of this morning in the trunk of a car. Police had been searching for the Geontae Glass since yesterday morning. He was asleep in the back seat of his mother's car when it was stolen from in front of a convenience store. That in Albertville, Alabama. So a sad ending to this story of this child abduction.

NGUYEN: That's so very sad. We're all hoping for the best in that situation.

We do have another bittersweet story to tell you about, it's a rescue though in Oregon. A missing mother and her two daughters have been found alive. They were stuck in the snow in the Oregon backcountry for more than a week. The father, though, still out there somewhere and the search is still on for him. CNN's Miles O'Brien reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNDERSHERIFF BRIAN ANDERSON, JOSEPHINE COUNTY, OREGON: She's in great shape. The kids are in great shape. So we're happy. I mean, that's -- that's a good find for everyone who was involved. And this is a good day for us.

M. O'BRIEN (voice over): It's a good news chapter, but not the end of the story for a San Francisco family lost in the snow in southwestern Oregon. A helicopter crew spotting Kati Kim and her two daughters nine days after their car got stuck in the snow on a mountain road. But Katie's husband James is still missing. He left his family two days earlier in a desperate search for help.

ANDERSON: It's my understanding he left the car at 7:45 Saturday morning, was going to walk out. And if he didn't find anything, return by 1:00. He did not return back to the car.

M. O'BRIEN: James Kim left wearing only tennis shoes, pants, a sweater and a jacket. The family went missing just after Thanksgiving, headed home to San Francisco after a holiday trip to the Pacific Northwest. They missed a turn, tried an alternate route, and ended up stuck on an impassable mountain road.

ANDERSON: They had minor provisions in the car. They ended up running -- they ran out of gas. They were running the car during the day and at night to keep warm. Then they started to burn their tires at night to stay warm. And so they did a good job.

M. O'BRIEN: Kati Kim nursed 4-year-old Penelope (ph) and 7- month-old Sabine (ph) to keep them nourished.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm elated that the children have been found and that we have our babies back. But I have an intense worry about James at this point.

M. O'BRIEN: Searchers followed James Kim's footprints in the snow until darkness. His family says he has some outdoor experience.

ANDERSON: There's always a good scenario. Nine days, you know, stuck in the snow in a car is a good scenario. We're going to continue to look until we find James. We're operating on the assumption that he's still alive and we're going to try to find him.

Miles O'Brien, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

NGUYEN: Well, as that search continues, there is a big day on Capitol Hill, something that's taking place right now. I want to take a live look at the Senate confirmation hearings for Robert Gates, who is looking to be the new defense secretary. There are some heavy hitters that will be lobbying questions at him, including Lindsey Graham, Evan Bayh, John Cornyn and Hillary Rodham Clinton. Of course you can catch it live right here on CNN.

We'll be right back.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HARRIS: So "YOUR WORLD TODAY" coming up in just a minute, six minutes or so, at the top of the hour. Colleen McEdwards is here with a preview.

Good to see you, Colleen.

COLLEEN MCEDWDARDS, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, good to see you, too.

We're getting close here, but I want to bring you an update on what we're going to have. We're going to have more on these confirmation hearings for Robert Gates. You guys were just talking about him, the nominee for secretary of defense. We're getting a really good sense of what his solution is for Iraq. So we're going to look at what he said and how he said it, which is, of course, important in these things.

Also in Iraq, Nic Robertson is going to tell us what Iraqis are thinking these days. Are U.S. troops part of the solution or part of the problem? we'll tell you what a lot of Iraqis are thinking right now.

Also, the latest on the poisoning of that former KGB spy. He was killed with a radioactive substance called polonium 210. This is stuff you definitely do not want to be touching, eating or breathing in. Our Dr. Sanjay Gupta takes a look at what polonium 210 does to the body. And it is not pretty, you guys. This was likened to a chemical torture. And Dr. Gupta has got a real good piece on exactly what it does.

So that and much more coming up. Hope you'll join us.

NGUYEN: Of course we will. We'll see you then.

MCEDWARDS: See you later.

NGUYEN: Thank you.

HARRIS: Boy, after, what, a month of trying to get the Intrepid to move to its new destination so it can be retrofitted, it looks like -- look at this.

NGUYEN: What a beautiful picture.

HARRIS: Look at this, New York harbor, the Hudson, tugs are moving the big carrier. It is out of the muck. Let's get you to Heidi Collins onboard the big ship.

Heidi, what a morning.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, boy. That's for sure, Tony. Let me tell you, we are way ahead of schedule. As you know, the original plan was to travel five miles down the Hudson River from pier 86 in the middle of Manhattan to Bayonne, New Jersey. That was supposed to take pretty much all day. We started out about 9:00 or so, and we were supposed to come into the dock at about 3:30 or something like that. But it has gone absolutely so smoothly that, surprisingly enough, we are here. We're not pulling into the dock quite yet because of the way that the tide moves. We have to go in perpendicular because it is a pretty strong tide. You can see all of the wind blowing and so forth. So we have to go perpendicular and then very, very gingerly get ourselves into the dock at Bayonne, New Jersey. They can see us from Bayonne. As you know, that means we're here -- Tony.

HARRIS; Heidi, I have to ask you, Bill White, who, boy, you have been in such contact with, and he's been great at supplying us all with updates and information on this. I've got a quote here from bill where he says, "This old baby is moving." What's it been like for him?

COLLINS: Yes. I have a couple pictures of him that I took on my camera phone, and many of them are quite expressive, as you can imagine. He also explains it, Tony, remember the whole speed bump, that happened the first time around on November 6th, 29 days ago, when they first tried to move it, and how when those propellers got stuck in the mud, the river silt at the bottom of the Hudson, they formed a speed bump. So he always says the high heels of the old gray lady were finally sawed off today, and she was well on her way, with the help of five tugboats and 21,000 horsepower.

HARRIS: Wow. And then, describe the reaction of crew members, several crew members onboard, once the big baby, the old baby started to move -- Heidi.

COLLINS: That's right. As you know, there's quite a bit of history with the Intrepid. What we have onboard today is 20 veterans, 20 former crew members from either World War II or Vietnam. Some of them that I've spoken with have actually told me that they were, you know, on deck when the -- one of the five kamikaze attacks hit. So there were certainly a range of emotions, I would say. Lots of cheers. I mean, this is a group of characters, if you will. Wonderful men. Very, very excited. Some tears, but mostly a whole lot of cheering. Which we also saw from shoreside, people gathering from Chelsea Pier and along the way as we've been going. We've had a lot of people waving.

HARRIS: Well, that is terrific. I can't wait to see you tomorrow. You share the stories with us.

Heidi, terrific work today. What a day for the intrepid.

COLLINS: That's right, Tony. Thanks.

HARRIS: Thanks, Heidi.

NGUYEN: Well, the NEWSROOM does continues this afternoon with Kyra Phillips and Don Lemon. And look who joins us now.

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: Very exciting stuff, huh? Finally it's moving, it's moving.

NGUYEN: Isn't it? It's taken some time, but it's there.

LEMON: We've got a lot coming up today. Against all odds. A California woman and her two tiny daughters found alive nine days after their car got stranded in the snowy Oregon wilderness. But joy is tempered with fear. Husband and father James Kim is still missing.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're operated under the assumption he's still alive, and we're going to try find them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: Also we have this for you.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED CORRESPONDENT: We know that your son believed that President Putin was behind his death. I need to ask you, who killed your son.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): I have no doubts who killed my son. He was killed by the Secret Services, on Putin's order.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: Very interesting interview. Alexander Litvinenko's father names his prime suspect in his son's death.

And of course we'll have continuing coverage of the Robert Gates confirmation hearing, all that coming up at 1:00 Eastern.

NGUYEN: See you then. Thank you, Don.

LEMON: All right, see you.

HARRIS: But right now, "YOUR WORLD TODAY" is next. Have a great afternoon, everyone.

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