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Iraq Study Group Report

Aired December 06, 2006 - 11:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, if the president changes direction, will the Democrats join with him, turn down the volume, and try to work together on a consensus approach? Or will they decide, no, that's risky for the Democrats because that would make it their war, too, if they're working with the president to try to go forward from here?
So, the biggest questions, the biggest burden right now is on the president of the United States. But if he changes in a significant way, there will be significant questions for how the Democrats react as well.

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: He's going to get an opportunity to talk to some congressional leaders later today, I believe. You know, it doesn't sound like that's particularly helpful for Democrats to sort of, hey, look, this is proof that the president's policy was wrong all along. You saw -- you saw a real spirit in that room today.

How long do you think that spirit can truthfully, John, carry over?

KING: Well, that is up to the people on the receiving end of the recommendations.

HARRIS: Yes.

KING: Principally, the president of the United States. And then if the president decides to make that pivot David Gergen was talking about, and to say, I did a lost things wrong, I'm willing to look at some new approaches, I'm willing to try some things that in the past I've rejected, if the president were to take that pivot, then there would be a huge burden on the Democrats to say, we will try to work with you in good faith.

And Tony, we talk about this, and sometimes it sounds crass to talk about this, but this is a huge and significant and meaningful policy debate that happens to be taking place in a very poisoned political environment. Not only a poisoned environment looking back at 2006, but already a very competitive environment looking forward toward 2008.

John McCain, the Republican, say increase the troop levels. Hillary Clinton and other Democrats say, let's start getting the troops out quickly. Everybody would have to hit the pause button of the politics if you want to have a significant consensus approach to changing the policy, and that's a big challenge.

HARRIS: And the country seems to say hit the pause button. Hit the button.

John King, stand by for us. Thanks, John.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: To reset for you just a moment here now, we have just heard from the co-chairs of the Iraq Study Group, Lee Hamilton and James Baker, to hear about all of these recommendations, 79 of them, 100-plus pages. The three main -- three main points, that is, out of those 79 are all about the primary mission of the U.S. forces in Iraq, changing that mission so that those forces may be able to slowly come out of the country in a responsible manner.

The second one, to prompt action by the Iraqi government to achieve certain milestones that are recommended. And also, a new and enhanced diplomatic and political effort in Iraq and certainly the region surrounding it.

I want to go ahead and bring in Candy Crowley now.

And Candy, I was interested to hear Ed Meese talk about how incredibly difficult he, I think, saw the toughest issue as the governance reconciliation issues on the part of Iraqis. Right now, there's this political consensus in our country on what to do. At least that's the way the Iraq Study Group would tell you, this was -- every one of these recommendations was unanimous.

How do you get the Iraqis to sort of listen to each other and come forward and defend their country?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, there's the rub. I mean, they've been trying now for three or four years.

I mean, what the panel has said is, listen, set these benchmarks, tell them that they have to achieve, you know, some stability. They have to have a judicial system in place, whatever it may be. And if they don't meet those benchmarks, then you begin to withdraw military and economic incentives, or what we're doing for them at this point.

Now, this has also been something that the president has been very hesitant to do. In fact, has said he doesn't think it's a good idea to pressure them with these kind of marks. Nonetheless, that's what this panel has suggested. So far, obviously, nothing has worked in kind of getting that very fractured country together with itself.

COLLINS: And we had also -- there has been so much discussion about dividing the country up in three regions, the Sunnis, the Shiites, the Kurds. That was also completely debunked today. We heard Jim Baker say, absolutely not, not going to work.

CROWLEY: You know, I talked to someone who's been in on the result of the discussions, and they said, look, they looked at the issue of dividing it. And at first, that was something that they did discuss. But they looked at it and decided it really wasn't Yugoslavia, that, first of all, there were no really defining neighborhoods around which to make this division of the country.

And that second of all, you would have a huge problem with the oil. That if you looked at it...

COLLINS: Absolutely.

CROWLEY: ... you know, everybody was going to claim some portion of it. And that's where the country's riches are.

So those are two of the reasons that they decided that dividing up the country into three parts just wasn't going to work.

COLLINS: Yes. And the oil is in the north and so are the Kurds. So a little bit of isolationism could possibly happen.

All right. Candy Crowley, thank you.

HARRIS: The Iraq Study Group has made it's report public. We heard from the chairs and the other eight members of the panel just moments ago as they talked about their work process and the conclusions and recommendations they have now made to the president of the United States for moving forward in Iraq.

The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating. The report says there is no path that can guarantee success but the prospects can be improved.

Let's take a look at our players once again and invite each of them to offer up maybe a final thought on what they heard this morning and what they will be paying attention to as they read the report.

John Roberts, let's start with you.

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN SR. NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It all seems well and good this idea of trying to build up the Iraqi forces by embedding more U.S. military forces with them. It's what they're doing now. It's just an acceleration of that.

The Iraqis welcome that. The Iraq army wants to do it. There doesn't seem to be a big problem there.

Where the big problem seems to lie is in this diplomatic initiative. How do you get all of the players together? How do you bring Iran to the table? Even James Baker is pessimistic about that.

And then the other question is, who to do it? This current White House doesn't have a terrific track record of negotiating with entities in the Middle East. So do they suddenly decide that they've got game now and they can go around and shuttle diplomacy between all of these countries and try to bring the situation forward?

That's a big question. I don't know that there's anyone in the current administration who's capable of doing that -- Tony.

HARRIS: John Roberts, thank you.

John King, what are your thoughts as you think back on what you've heard this morning and some of the reading you will be paying close attention to when you open up that report? KING: Well, what strikes me, Tony, is to accept this report, the president has to essentially throw out his second inaugural address and the foreign policy focus that has been his goal, his legacy, his hope for legacy of the second term, and that is that promotion of democracy will be the leading factor in U.S. relations around the world. The president has refused to talk to Iran, refused to talk to Syria. And put off to the side temporarily, he would say, some of the other issues in the Middle East, essentially based on this bargain: watch this, Iraq will become a sustainable, productive democracy and influence the entire region.

This report says simply, Mr. President, that's not happening. Iraq is in chaos. It could slip into total failure. You have to change your policy.

He has to change his policy not just in Iraq to accept this report, he has to change his entire outlook, especially when it comes to the Middle East, and, perhaps, pretty much the direct, complete focus of what he promised would be his second term foreign policy.

HARRIS: Candy Crowley, if you would, reflect on what you've heard this morning.

CROWLEY: I am most interested in what they emphasized in this news conference, which was this country has to get a consensus. There has to be a bipartisan consensus in Washington, as there was a bipartisan consensus on this panel. That's very tough.

I talked to somebody yesterday and they said, "Watch the Republicans. The pressure on the president to accept this will come from those Republicans who have not been mavericks prior to this." But this report, it seems to me, does give Republicans who dearly want Iraq cleaned up before the 2008 election, it gives them some cover.

They can embrace it. That puts huge pressure on President Bush.

HARRIS: Candy, we appreciate it. Thank you.

John King, John Roberts, Candy Crowley, thank you all.

David Gergen, keep your powder dry, sir. We are going to spend a couple of more minutes with you on the other side of the break.

You're watching continuing coverage of the conclusions, the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. That report made public just a short time ago.

We're going to take a break. You are in the NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLLINS: Want to go ahead and remind you of what we are covering today in case you are just joining us.

We have heard the breakdown now from the co-chairs of the Iraq Study Group. HARRIS: Yes.

COLLINS: That 79 recommendations, 100-page report. We heard from Jim Baker and Lee Hamilton.

Several different topics to discuss today. Not any of them really uncomplicated, if you will.

HARRIS: Yes.

COLLINS: But it's interesting. It is called "The Way Forward: A New Approach." So in just a few minutes we are going to be hearing from one of the members of the Iraq Study Group, or maybe a couple of them, actually, two of them.

HARRIS: Yes. Leon Panetta and Lawrence Eagleburger.

COLLINS: OK. OK.

HARRIS: And that is coming up in just a couple of moments with Don Lemon and Kyra Phillips.

Have a great day, everyone. We will see you again tomorrow.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: Grave, deteriorating, possibly sliding into chaos, the situation in Iraq right now, according to the Iraq Study Group. The bipartisan panel released its long-awaited report just hours ago. It warns there's no magic formula for success, but it's offering some hopeful options.

Now, here's what we know right now.

The group calls for moving most U.S. troops out of their combat roles by early 2008, but it does not set specific timetables. It also urges direct talks between the U.S., Iran and Syria, along with a new U.S. diplomatic effort across the Middle East. And it says the U.S. should reduce economic military support if the Iraqi government fails to meet specific goals.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Now let's hear from the people who penned this report.

Joining us from Washington, two of the Iraqi Study Group members, former secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger and former White House chief of staff Leon Panetta.

Gentlemen, it's great to have both of you with us today.

LAWRENCE EAGLEBURGER, FMR. SECRETARY OF STATE: Good to be here.

LEON PANETTA, FMR. WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: Nice to be with you.

PHILLIPS: Secretary, let me begin with you. Take me inside the past nine months. Do you remember the first moment that all of you came together? What was the initial issue that all of you definitely wanted to tackle first?

EAGLEBURGER: Unfortunately, you're going to have to go to Mr. Panetta. Remember, I was recruited as a substitute for Bill Gates when he was nominated as secretary of defense.

PHILLIPS: Point well made. Point well made.

EAGLEBURGER: So I wasn't there at the beginning.

PHILLIPS: Mr. Panetta, the former secretary has always been a man of exact, precise details.

PANETTA: Yes.

EAGLEBURGER: It's either that or make it up.

PHILLIPS: So I will -- either that, or he just wants to pass it over.

So, Mr. Panetta, will you answer that for me?

PANETTA: Well, there was no question that the first challenge when we came together as a group was, where do we begin? How do we grab a hold of what is a very difficult situation and begin to understand what are the political implications, what are the military implications, what are the implications with regards to diplomacy?

And so I think probably the most frightening thing at the first meeting is, how do we get started? Where do we -- what do we focus on first?

PHILLIPS: So -- and what was that issue that you decided to focus on first?

PANETTA: Well, I think it probably developed as a result of the reports we began to get, because we thought the first thing we need to do is to gather information. So we spent an awful lot of time being briefed by intelligence agencies, by the Pentagon, by various individuals who had expertise in various fields.

And so we went through a good six to seven months of nothing but briefings from people who were presenting their views and their thoughts about what needed to be done. That helped us begin to organize the areas that we needed to address.

EAGLEBURGER: In fact, isn't it true that really beginning to draft only started maybe about a month ago or so?

PANETTA: That's right.

EAGLEBURGER: Yes.

PANETTA: We didn't really have a draft until within the last few months that we began to work with.

PHILLIPS: So, Mr. Secretary, you came into the mix.

EAGLEBURGER: Right.

PHILLIPS: And be honest with me. Did you shake it up at all? Did you come into this group and think, OK, you are on the wrong track here?

EAGLEBURGER: No. No. And let me tell you, I was -- it was a really great surprise.

First of all, I -- when I was asked to do this by Jim Baker, I was not at all sure that I was going to want to do it, because I had really serious doubts as to whether bipartisanship could prevail in this sort of a session. And I wasn't even sure about myself, to be honest about it.

But what surprised me most was, as soon as I got there, really, and sat down with these people, I realized I was way off base, because they had obviously worked together for some period of time, but while they would debate, while there were issues -- and there were issues when I got there, too -- but never was it nasty. And each time it was resolved.

Never, never was something put under the table and said, well, we can never solve it so just forget it. That is not the case.

PHILLIPS: Well, I want to ask you both about the Iran-Syria factor. In the report it says, "Given the ability of Iran and Syria to influence events in Iraq and their interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq, the United States should try to engage them constructively."

How do you do that, Mr. Panetta, when Iran is the country that is funneling the insurgency and bringing these weapons into Iraq?

PANETTA: There's no question that we know that we have an adversarial relationship with Iran, with Syria. But I think the consensus of this group is that you have to talk to your enemies. You can't isolate your enemies.

Secretary Jim Baker keeps talking about the fact that we talked to the Soviet Union for over 40 years, and they basically had said that they were going to wipe us off the face of the earth. You've got to be able to engage those who disagree with you.

You don't have to give in. You don't have to surrender on your principles. But you have to begin a process of communication. And that's what we recommend here.

PHILLIPS: Well, let's ask the -- Secretary Eagleburger that exact question.

You were secretary of state. It's all about negotiations, it's all about diplomacy, it's all about getting other countries on board.

How do you do that, sir, with Iran?

EAGLEBURGER: Well, first of all, you have to remember that you may not succeed. And nobody in the report says absolutely are we going to succeed.

What we do say, however, is that Syria and Iran must be talked to and must -- to see at least whether there isn't something that can be accomplished. And please remember this, too. I gather this was true before I joined the group, but after I joined the group it was very clear. Everybody who came to talk to us, make recommendations, whether it was Republicans or Democrats, serious leaders from both parties who knew foreign affairs, every single one of them said, if you want to be successful in solving the Iraq problem, one of the things you're going to have to do is get engaged between Israel and the Palestinians.

And that, again, here, why -- so the point here was, if you're going to get engaged with the Iranians -- I mean, with the -- the -- let me try again -- with the Palestinians and the Israelis, you're beginning to broaden this thing anyway. And the whole point is, it seems to me, that in trying to get this process moving, in order to try to make it easier on Iraq, you have to go in any direction you can.

That included Israel and the Palestinians. It includes asking the Syrians and the Iranians to come to the table as well. We'll see whether they come or not. But I will -- I will say it seems to be fairly obvious that if you have a problem with somebody, it's better off trying to solve the problem around the negotiating table than it is simply putting them in the refrigerator and never opening the door.

LEMON: And gentlemen, both -- Don Lemon here at CNN. Lee Hamilton and James Baker both reiterated this point. They said the conclusion drawn from this is that these recommendations offer a way forward, they're comprehensive and need to be implemented in a coordinated fashion and should not be separated or carried out in isolation.

How important it is that the administration follow that edict?

PANETTA: Well, you know, we're not -- we're not issuing an executive order, and we certainly aren't a group of commanders in chief. The president has to make the final decision here.

But what we did was what we felt we had to, which is to address this problem in a comprehensive way, to make recommendations with regards to changing our military mission there from one of combat to one of support, to ensuring that the milestones that the Iraqis have set out are met so that they do in fact reform their government. And also to engage in this diplomatic effort.

Hopefully, the president, the Congress, those involved in policymaking decisions, will take those recommendations and try to implement them, because all of us are really stretching to ensure that we try to take the last step here to ensure that Iraq succeeds. LEMON: Now, critics are going to say, you know what, many of the people, the Iraqi people, did not ask for this war, and to threaten to reduce military and financial aid if the deadlines are missed just doesn't seem like you're following the entire thing to its entirety.

EAGLEBURGER: Well, if I can try first with this. You know, we've tried in the past, I gather -- and, in fact, I know -- to persuade the Iraqis to do X, Y or Z. And they have said, yes, we'll do it, and then nothing happens. And it doesn't affect at all the way in which we treat the Iraqis in terms of assistance, military help, and so forth.

And what is I think now very clear is a serious part of the problem in Iraq right now that so much affects us is their inability to govern themselves, to do so many of the things that any normal government would do. And if they're reluctant to take these issues on, then there has to be some way to lever them into doing it.

And that's what this report in effect says, is that, you know, if they don't perform on these milestones, for example, there is going to have to be some cost to that for the Iraqis. We don't lay out specifics, but we do try to make it clear that they will pay a price for not performing.

PANETTA: There have to be consequences.

EAGLEBURGER: Right.

PANETTA: And I think that's the key, is that we -- we made the decision there have to be teeth in these recommendations, because if the Iraqis fail to implement the reforms, if they fail to get a handle on the violence, there's nothing the United States can do, militarily or otherwise, that can solve those problems. They have to assume the primary responsibility to govern themselves.

PHILLIPS: Which brings in the question, is Maliki the man to be running that country? Is he strong enough? Is he able to do what he needs to do?

PANETTA: Well, that's a -- that's a good question and it's one we asked a number of people. We had conversations with Maliki ourselves.

I have to tell you that I think the general sense is he's the best we have going for us right now. But I think the jury is probably still out on whether or not he has the capacity to govern.

EAGLEBURGER: I think that's correct. But one other thing you need to keep in mind is, we keep saying that Iraq is a sovereign government now. It has a sovereign -- it's a sovereign state. They have to govern their own affairs. And at the same time, if we tell them now, but you're going to have to get some different prime minister because we don't like this one, you're kind of making it a little bit difficult to demonstrate that they are in fact independent.

I think Maliki's got a big problem. But at the same time, I think so do we if we don't understand that he was selected by the Iraqi people now, and it's now their turn to have him perform.

PHILLIPS: And some will argue that, saying it was actually the U.S. that selected him, not the Iraqi people. Obviously we can debate that.

EAGLEBURGER: Yes.

PHILLIPS: As you know, Senator Joseph Biden, Democrat from Delaware, already coming forward criticizing this report. Let's take a listen to what he had to say.

EAGLEBURGER: Already?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: I must tell you I have one concern. Ultimately, there is a requirement for a political settlement.

I recommend to all of you to read the beginning portions of the Iraqi constitution. It calls for, their words, a federal system, with "a weak central government." The notion that we are going to have a time when we can train up an Iraqi national police force or army that is going to provide security and safety in Anbar Province and in the Sunni regions simultaneously is not going to happen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Mr. Secretary, critics say, look, you've got to pull U.S. troops out so it pushes Maliki to make that effort to get the police and the military ready. Otherwise, forget about it, he's going to depend on the U.S. to do everything.

EAGLEBURGER: Well, the fact of the matter also is, if we move out too fast, it can turn into absolute chaos, and then we have certainly not accomplished what we're trying to do, which is to bring some stability to Iraq and to that region. And the report has now made it clear that there has to be a redistribution of troops.

There have to be troops that move out. There have to be troops that are put into different activities than was originally the case. But at the same time, it doesn't seem to me, and it didn't seem to the panel, you can just announce to the Iraqis that tomorrow morning, if you don't perform, we're going to get nasty and go home.

That is not the way this is going to work. And if, in fact, we move too fast, it's chaos, and then it is a serious problem.

PANETTA: I think there really is an opportunity for consensus here. Whether we talk to General Abizaid, whether we talk to General Casey, whether we talk to Democrats like Ike Skelton or Carl Levin on the Hill, I think all of them recognize that the responsibility here has to rest with the Iraqis, and particularly the Iraqi army.

If we're going to make that work, if they are going to control violence, we have to embed our troops. We have got to be able to train them so that they're combat ready to deal with that. That's the only hope we have of ultimately being able to redeploy and take all of our combat brigades home.

EAGLEBURGER: Correct.

LEMON: And gentlemen, both of you, just real quickly, because we're running out of time here, but James Baker saying this is no way -- this recommendation is -- not staying the course is not the recommendation of this.

PANETTA: That's correct.

EAGLEBURGER: Very important.

PANETTA: This is not staying the course. This is not cut and run. This is a new way forward. And hopefully people will pay attention to it.

EAGLEBURGER: That's correct.

LEMON: All right. Lawrence Eagleburger, Leon Panetta, thank you both very much for joining us today here.

PANETTA: My pleasure.

LEMON: And you can get more of the Iraq Study Group's report at CNN.com. In fact, you can read the entire report, see for yourself the group's recommendation and predictions, and interact with others while you're there. You can also see who's who in the group.

Get more at CNN.com.

PHILLIPS: Much more ahead, including analyst David Gergen, Suzanne Malveaux at the White House, and our Brent Sadler in the Mideast, a region playing a bigger role than many expected in the study group's report.

You're watching CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

Hello, everyone. I'm Kyra Phillips live at the CNN world headquarters in Atlanta.

LEMON: And I'm Don Lemon. Will the words lead to action in Iraq? The study group is out with the recommendation. The report, the White House reaction, and reaction from Iraq and the region, next. You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.

President Bush is promising to pay close attention to the Iraq Study Group's report, but he's not making promises that he will act on their recommendations. Our White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux is standing by -- Suzanne.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Don, there are a couple things we expect to come out of the briefing in about 30 minutes or so. Earlier, we heard the president say this is a tough report. He also vowed that he would take the recommendations very seriously. But what Tony Snow, the press secretary, essentially is going to say, is look he's going to emphasize the things that the Bush Administration agrees with in the report.

Obviously, he's going to talk about, yes the goals are the same. We realize that it's a deteriorating and difficult situation. But that the Iraq Study group did not call for a timetable, did not call for an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops and did call for this transition in the role of the military from the front-lines combat to more of a training role something the Bush Administration and the military has already been engaged in.

What you will not hear from from Snow is the talk about the role of Iran and Syria and the Bush Administration engaging in direct talks. That is something that the report of the commission has asked for and the Bush Administration has been very hesitant about having those unconditional talks.

So on the one hand, you're going to hear them perhaps answer some questions, spin it in their way. Another way, you're not going to hear too many answers at all. They say specifically, the president is going to spend weeks mulling this over, as well as other reports and that he's not going to specifically endorse any of the 79 recommendations for quite sometime -- Don.

LEMON: Suzanne, I know that you were at the White House briefing and Tony Snow, is he talking about any of -- about this, that the recommendations should not be separated or carried out in isolation?

Essentially what this group is saying is that this full report should be taken in context, and basically, every recommendation from the report should be implemented. Tony Snow have any comment on that?

MALVEAUX: Well, you know, what the Bush Administration honestly is going to do here, they're certainly not going to agree with this whole report and say this is what we endorse and this is what we put forward. He's got a lot of wiggle room and he's got political cover here.

They're trying to buy some some time because they've got an internal report obviously from the White House. Another report coming from the Pentagon. It allows the president and the Bush Administration to cherry pick from this particular group. And also say, look, you know we've taken a little bit from everybody. This is our new strategy, our new policy. It's really kind of a safety for this president. And that's what is expected.

LEMON: All right. Suzanne Malveaux at the White House. Thank you very much. And we also, Suzanne, want to remind our viewers at the top of the hour, the White House briefing will happen and we will carry that for you live here on CNN.

PHILLIPS: We want to take you live to Beirut now. Our Beirut bureau chief Brent Sadler standing by. You'll see the protesters in the background. That's been going on for six days now. Brent, maybe you can just set that up just a little bit, if you don't mind. And then respond to the Iraq Study Group and what you're hearing from your vantage point.

BRENT SADLER, CNN BEIRUT BUREAU CHIEF: Kyra, as you say, the sixth straight day of protests, and in fact the sieging of the prime minister's office complex not far from this demonstration, the Western-backed government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora -- strongly backed by the U.S. administration in this political battle for power in Lebanon that really does have strategic interests for the United States.

Now let's look at what's come out of the Iraq Study Group. If the United States, President George Bush were to agree to re-engage with Syria and Iran, there has not been, I might add, a U.S. ambassador in the Syrian capital of Damascus for a year, that it would certainly have a ripple effect here in Lebanon.

Lebanon is seen as a positive example of democracy in the Middle East, gaining strength after the Cedar revolution last year. If Syria and Iran, that really is pushing the Hezbollah-led opposition here to topple the government of Siniora. If that succeeds in pushing back democracy here, then that would certainly damage the U.S. interests on this Lebanese front.

So, yes, it has a direct impact on whether or not the U.S. administration re-engages with those two states, Syria and Iran, that are seen and have been seen for some considerable amount of time by the U.S. administration as preparing long before these street protests got under way to try to topple the government here and to try to damage U.S. prestige and influence in the Middle East -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: What's interesting is so many of the critics and analysts have been saying for months now, Brent, is that that's what needs to be tackled first to deal with Iraq. And that is, the Israeli-Palestinian issue and also what is happening in Lebanon.

Maybe you can go into a little bit more on that and why so many of the critics and the analysts have been saying this. And now we're actually seeing it in this recommendation. In this Iraq Study Group report.

SADLER: Well, generally, in the Middle East, Arabs will tell you at different levels and from different parts of the sectarian groups in this part of the world that the United States and the President George W. Bush has failed to energize, has failed to put any serious effort into getting a solution between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

And that by promoting democracy in the Middle East, by supporting the so-called Cedar revolution that brought pro-Democratic western alliance, if you like, forced into power in this country by promoting such democracy, that so Hamas win the Democratic elections in the Gaza Strip, that United States felt was obviously against its interests in the region, that democracy on the one hand has not worked to the president's favor. So you can't have it both ways. And many in this part of the world, particularly the Arab leaders and notably some of the President Bush's most close allies, at least in Jordan and Saudi Arabia and other parts of the region have been saying long since a major Arab- league summit here some four or five years ago, that re-engagement at the highest level with the most energy on the Palestinian-Israeli track to roll back, to push back, the growth of extremism within Arab politics was primarily in the U.S. interests.

So, I think if the United States was to re-engage Syria and Iran and if the United States were to reenergize a very serious effort on the Israeli-Palestinian track in coordination with Arab states, then the Arab world would think that's a positive move -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Brent Sadler live from Beirut. Thanks Brent.

LEMON: U.S. policy changes in Iraq. A proposal now on the president's desk. What will he do with it? Insight from a man who has advised four U.S. presidents, David Gergen, and CNN's 'A' team, as our special coverage continues right here in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: We're waiting on a briefing to happen at the top of the hour. In just about 20 minutes it should be happening. Tony Snow will hold the White House briefing, because a lot definitely going on today that they have to respond to.

In the meantime, we'll bring in David Gergen. David Gergen knows the inner workings of the White House. He's worked for four presidents.

David, what's going none the White House right now?

DAVID GERGEN, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": This is a tough one, because so far the White House has tried to resist the central proposals of the Baker-Hamilton Commission. They don't want to talk directly with Iran and Syria. They don't want to be in the situation of holding -- of having timetables in Iraq, especially for withdrawing troops. They don't want to be in a situation of punishing the Iraqi government if it doesn't perform on some sort of milestone basis.

So the central recommendations are all ones they've said no to, but the weight of this report, the quality of the people involved, the change in mood in the country, the fact that so many member of Congress on the Republican side, like John Warner, heavyweights on the Republican side, now want a dramatic course change. I think this is going to put enormous pressure on the president to embrace at least portions of this, and to recognize that when the country is told this is grave and deteriorating that this may be unwinnable, that reality has to sink in in the White House it that this report from the commission could be a gift. This is the best moment we've had in over three years in a prolonged war, to put together a unified strategy.

LEMON: Yea, And this is also a bipartisan report. It wasn't, you know, commissioned by Republicans or commissioned by the Democrats, or what have you. And there are other reports being worked on. Again the weight of this. And also in the reports that are being worked on, so again, the weight of this, but also in that report, I hate to keep hammering this, but the recommendation in that report, the conclusion is that the entire thing should be taken into consideration and not be piecemeal.

GERGEN: That's right. And the essence of this report is that the United States should during the next 16 months should hand this war over to the Iraqis. Let them do the fighting; we'll do the training, bring our combat troops out in the next 15 months.

What we will do is help them economically, and we will also try to put together diplomacy that helps in Iraq and helps to saves the region. But it really is -- this is a report -- I wish we had had this kind of report in the Vietnam War. Because if it had come early enough, we might have spared a lot of lives. But this is a report that basically says, it's time to turn this over to the Iraqis let them take the lead over the next 15 months.

LEMON: So if they take the lead in 15 months, or if that doesn't happen, and we start places sanctions on Iraq, talk about the fairness of that, David.

GERGEN: Well, there is an issue, there is a moral question here about what our responsibilities are to the Iraqi people. And it may we will be before this is over, we're going to have helicopters coming off a roof, just like we saw until Saigon and we're going to have to take people who work with us in Iraq and take them as refugees. We should be prepared to do that, if this turns into total civil war, if it broadens and deepens as a civil war.

In the meantime, what this report is saying, that this bipartisan group, after serious consideration believes the best hope for success in Iraq is to turn it other to the Iraqis over time, that they do have to take some responsibility for their own country. We will could what we can. But ultimately, it's the Iraq's mission, not our mission. And occupation, in the minds of many people, is only making it more difficult. It's only deepening the civil war to keep our large combat footprint there, and so this mission is saying we got to go another way.

LEMON: All right, let's keep with that, but then also talk about Iraq's neighbors. Now there's a quote in the report that says, "If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe and trigger. A slide towards chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and the humanitarian capacity. Neighboring countries should intervene. Talking specifically about Iran and also about Syria, and then, on a broader level, talking about Israeli, the Israelis and the Palestinians. We need to be more responsible, at least take them into consideration more.

GERGEN: Yes, as John King was making this argument a little earlier today on CNN, and that was essentially that this report is the first we've had that the war is not just about Iraq, but now there is a shadow moving across the whole region coming out of Iraq coming out of Iraq, and the real danger is, as the violence increases, the Iranians feel the need to come in and help the Shiites and protect the Shiites. At that point, as the Shiites get stronger, the Saudis, who are Sunnis, may feel that they need to come in, and the Turks may feel they need to come in. You could get a regional conflict in Iraq that would spread across the Middle East. It would be a catastrophe if that happened, not only in terms of peace, but in terms of economic impact on the world, including the United States, especially the United States.

So this report is trying to say, we're not sure we can salvage this. It doesn't have the word victory in it. We're not sure we can salvage it. But if we don't do something like this, we could well slide into catastrophe.

LEMON: All right, David, we're running out of time here, but I want to talk about the PR of it all, the public relations aspect of it all for the White House. If they don't take these recommendations into consideration, how will this play out at the White House? Although they're downplaying it, how seriously do you think they're taking this report?

I think they're going to wake up over the next two or three days and see the political landscape around them has changed, and that there's a gravity to this report that is going to force itself upon them. They would like to dance away from it. They would like to cherry pick a few things here. They've got the military in, their own military report, and not change very much.

The president doesn't really want to change course here. But I think that this report is going to galvanize the country in ways, certainly the political class, if you would, of the country. The Congress is now going to embrace this. And when Republicans like John Warner come around and say, this is the way we ought to go, I think that puts enormous pressure on the president to say, you know, we're going to have to do it another way, a different way.

LEMON: David Gergen, we appreciate your insight. Thank you.

GERGEN: Thank you. Thank you very much.

PHILLIPS: The tone is blunt. The Iraq Study Group has released its long-awaited report, and it gets straight to the point. The current U.S. policy in Iraq. it concludes, it's not working. It also warns of a deteriorating situation, and a potential slide into chaos.

Our congressional correspondent Andrea Koppel standing by for us now on Capitol Hill.

First, let's hear what James Baker had to say not long ago, Andrea.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES BAKER, CO-CHAIR, IRAQ STUDY GROUP: Ladies and gentlemen, there is no magic formula that will solve the problems of Iraq. But to give the Iraqi government a chance to succeed, United States' policy must be focused more broadly than on military strategy alone or on Iraq alone. It must seek the active and constructive engagement of all governments that have an interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq, including all of Iran's neighbors -- Iraq's neighbors.

To gain this constructive engagement, the United States should promptly initiate a new diplomatic offensive. And working with the government of Iraq should create an international Iraq support group to address comprehensively, the political, economic and military matters necessary to provide stability in Iraq.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Andrea, a little bit of a Freudian slip there, he said, "Iran -- I mean Iraq's neighbors." I think he was talking about one of those neighbors, specifically Iran.

ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Exactly. Well, Iran and Syria.

You know, Kyra, obviously, we're on Capitol Hill. Let's talk about the politics of this. And in fact, it was Congress that had urged this bipartisan commission to take place in the first instance when they started about a year ago to develop this. Now, the fact is what we have heard right now is basically an endorsement of what has been the sort the most popular position among Democrats. And that was a plan put forward by Carl Levin and Jack Reed. What you've also seen is a complete dismissal of a proposals that was put out there by Senator Biden to petition Iraq into three different entities and a rejection of John Kerry's plan to have -- and Jack Murtha, the Congressman from Pennsylvania, to have an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops.

So, I think that obviously, this is something they had their ear to the ground. They heard what voters were saying on November 7. And I was talking with the former Secretary of State Eagleburger and Leon Panetta off camera after your interview and they said they knew in this report, if they did not reflect what the American people were calling for, that there would be a problem in terms of trying to implement any of these ideas, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Well, and they made that very clear that there's a big division in this country with regard to this war. And one of their main goals is to reunite everybody in the United States in addition to taking charge with what's happening overseas.

Andrea Koppel there on the Hill. We'll continue to talk to you throughout the next few hours. Thanks, Andrea.

LEMON: Also, a reminder, at the top of the hour, a White House briefing expected with Tony Snow. We'll bring that to you live when it happens.

It is broke. And you better fix it fast. We'll get into a new plan for Iraq and what it means for U.S. troops in the line of fire. We're all over the Iraq study group report. Stay in the CNN NEWSROOM for the latest.

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LEMON: There are certainly high hopes in Washington for the Iraq study group findings. Lots of talk about new strategies and bipartisan cooperation. In Iraq, however, it's another day of violence.

Our Ben Wedeman has reaction now from Baghdad -- Ben.

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Don. Well, we've received a statement from the office of the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki saying that earlier today he received a closed-circuit television briefing on this report from Mr. Hamilton and his colleagues. And that he basically came away with three major points as a result of that briefing.

Basically that the United States supports a national unity government of Iraq. That it supports intensification -- or rather the report supports the intensification of diplomatic regional efforts to stabilize the situation in Iraq. And that it also recommends that the American forces give more responsibility in the area of combat to the Iraqi forces here in Iraq.

By and large, the expectations were not high here in Baghdad regarding this report. We have to keep in mind that this is just one of many going about now. And that obviously, the Bush administration is going to pick and choose what it likes.

But most people would agree here with the assessment by Lee Hamilton that the situation is grave and deteriorating. As a matter of fact, as we were watching the live broadcast of their press conference, we heard gunfire just down the street here which just underscores the gravity of the situation here -- Don.

LEMON: Now, when you talked to Mr. Maliki, did he mention at all -- talk to you about the 15 months or so of the gradual pullout of troops? Any concern to him that this is part of that recommendation?

WEDEMAN: No, this was a statement we received from the prime minister's office. But we understand that when Prime Minister Maliki met with President Bush last week in Amman, Jordan, that that was one of the things they agreed upon is that gradually, the responsibility for security in the country, would be transferred over to Iraqi forces.

And that was confirmed yesterday by the chief multi-national force spokesman here who said that by next summer, Iraqi forces will be responsible for what he called their battle space. And that American forces would intensify their training efforts, but step in and assist the Iraqi forces if and when they would need that -- Don.

LEMON: And it is a clear picture of that as we're doing these reports and recommendations here in the U.S. that gunfire and blasts are happening just as it's taking place. Thank you very much, Ben Wedeman, for joining us today in Baghdad.

PHILLIPS: While the White House briefing gets under way in just a few moments. Live pictures now from the White House as reporters are getting ready. And we're waiting, of course, for the spokesperson to step up to the mike.

We know that will be top of the agenda, of course, the Iraq study group and the results. We'll bring it live to you when it happens. You're watching CNN NEWSROOM.

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