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Authorities in Oklahoma Search for Two Escaped Prisoners; Senate Hearing for General David Petraeus, Tapped to Carry Out Planned Troop Buildup in Iraq; War Weary

Aired January 23, 2007 - 14:01   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone. I'm Kyra Phillips, live at the CNN world headquarters in Atlanta.
DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Don Lemon.

Cheaper healthcare? Well, it's part of the president's State of the Union plan. But does it penalize Americans who already have insurance?

PHILLIPS: A disturbing discovery in the war on terror. Is al Qaeda in Iraq training a new group of terrorists for attacks in the U.S.?

LEMON: And controversy at Sundance. Twelve-year-old Dakota Fanning stirring it up with her Indy film. We'll tell you what she said about her very adult role in the film "Hounddog".

You are live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

Top of the hour and a developing story. T.J. Holmes working it for us in the newsroom.

What do you have for us, T.J.?

T.J. HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: A prison break. Two inmates on the run, Don, and authorities in Oklahoma say these two inmates look like they may have been busy since they broke out of jail. This is in Hinton, Oklahoma, is where the facility is, the Great Plains Correctional Center in Hinton.

Two inmates -- you're seeing them there -- one is Charles McDaniels (ph), who's 35 years old. The other, Tony Ellison (ph), a 23-year- old.

McDaniels (ph) was in jail serving a life sentence with the possibility of parole for first-degree murder back in 1988. Ellison (ph), on the other hand, serving 15 years for unauthorized use of a motor vehicle and also a consecutive five-year term for an escape from a jail in 2005.

Now, police believe this is what the two did once they broke out of prison. Officials realized after a headcount two people were missing, did a more extensive search, a photo count, realized that these two were missing.

Police believe that after they broke out of the jail there in Hinton, they broke into a home there in town and abducted a woman and stole her car. They took her and her car to Oklahoma City, where police believe they broke into another home in Oklahoma City, took another person hostage, and then left the two people there at that home, and then stole that second person's car in Oklahoma City and are now on the run.

That second vehicle is described as a white 2003 Pontiac Vibe with Oklahoma license FMM-997. So, this was in Oklahoma City.

Again, these two, McDaniels (ph) and Ellison (ph), Charles McDaniels (ph) and Tony Ellison (ph), on the run right now. Two that escaped from a prison there in Hinton. But they're keeping an eye out. And certainly the don't know if they are armed and dangerous.

Don't know if they are armed. They do consider them dangerous. But they don't know if they're armed or not. But certainly some concern here, Don, because it appears, at least police believe, that they have two abductions and a possible -- and a couple of robberies since they got out of prison. So they are on the look for those two.

We're going to keep an eye on this story as well.

LEMON: Yes, T.J. Absolutely dangerous. You said no one was hurt, right?

HOLMES: Don't know the extent. Actually, police don't know. One person was actually seen at that second home in Oklahoma City, taken from the home in a stretcher.

Don't know the extent of any injuries there just yet. It doesn't appear maybe anything serious, but still don't know the extent of injuries. But certainly police are concerned here because it looks like these two are certainly desperate.

LEMON: Wow. All right. We'll check back. Thank you so much, T.J.

HOLMES: All right, Don.

PHILLIPS: On the Hill, under fire, armed with answers, but asking for patience. Lieutenant General David Petraeus is President Bush's choice to lead U.S. forces in Iraq. First, though, he has to get through the Senate.

CNN Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr has been keeping an ear to the confirmation hearing.

Barbara, what have you learned?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kyra, by all accounts, it seems that General Petraeus is going to be confirmed. It was a relatively friendly hearing. He is the man that President Bush wants to put in charge in Iraq. He is the last best choice, by some accounts, for this very tough job.

But General Petraeus, right off the bat, made it crystal clear the job ahead is going to be very tough. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LT. GEN. DAVID PETRAEUS, U.S. ARMY: The situation in Iraq is dire. The stakes are high. There are no easy choices. The way ahead will be very hard.

Progress will require determination and difficult U.S. and Iraqi actions, especially the latter, as ultimately the outcome will be determined by the Iraqis. But hard is not hopeless.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STARR: A pretty remarkable statement, even to hear the new top commander, if confirmed, the top commander, saying the word "hopeless" and having to say that it's not hopeless.

Now, a lot of the hearing actually began to focus on the politics of the situation, as one might expect, with a number of Senate resolutions, motions and statements all aimed at trying to limit U.S. military involvement in Iraq. General Petraeus was asked whether he felt that would essentially tie his hands, some of these political moves. And he said, you know, he wants the enemy to feel that they have no hope. So he doesn't really like seeing some of these efforts.

Senator Hillary Clinton, of course, now a presidential candidate, weighed in on that subject, and on behalf of many other senators said, even with those efforts to limit U.S. involvement, the senators are still square behind the troops.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: Rejecting those of our other friends on the panel who think that statements of disapproval are somehow going to undermine our effort, when I think they will send the clearest message, we know this policy is going forward. We know the troops are moving. We know that we're not likely to stop this escalation, but we are going to do everything we can to send a message to our government and the Iraqi government that they had better change, because the enemy we are confronting is adaptable.

It is intelligent. It learns.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STARR: And now, Kyra, General Petraeus also saying that he has asked for those brigades, those additional troops that are going to Iraq, to be sent as quickly as possible to get on the ground. But he also acknowledged it may be the May time frame before all the troops are in place -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Barbara, how soon can we know if he is confirmed or not?

STARR: Well, that vote could come fairly quickly. It will, of course, depend on first it being voted out of the Senate Armed Services Committee. That could come very quickly. And then going to the Senate floor. But as we know, Kyra, there are two other very crucial nominations right behind General Petraeus. Admiral William Fallon to be head of Central Command, replacing General Abizaid. And, of course, General Casey, the current commander in Iraq that General Petraeus is going to replace, his hearing is coming up for him to come back to Washington and be the head of the Army.

That's a nomination that may run into a little bit of trouble. There are already signals about that, because many senators feel General Casey has some questions to answer about exactly what has gone wrong in Iraq -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right. Barbara Starr, thanks.

LEMON: It's supposed to be a snapshot, but President Bush's State of the Union Speech, like those of his modern predecessors, will most likely look ahead, unveiling proposals to fix the problems the country cares about most. For Mr. Bush, time is short and the task is huge.

In a new CNN-Opinion Research Corporation poll, just 39 percent of Americans say his presidency has been a success so far. That's a seven-point drop since Mr. Bush's State of the Union Speech last year.

Iraq is a huge factor. For every U.S. soldier or Marine in the war zone, there are dozens of loved ones and friends back home deal with the strain.

CNN Chief National Correspondent John King takes a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Live fire drills at Camp Lejeune, anxious faces so young.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Check every single quarter.

KING: The lesson here, door-to-door urban combat, preparation for battling insurgents in Iraq.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Open our ears and our mind to your word.

KING: There is a lesson, too, in Pastor David Shirk's Sunday sermon.

PASTOR DAVID SHIRK, U.S. NAVY: Find ourselves in the middle of the desert. We can sit there and go, you know what? I don't deserve this. I don't deserve to be in this situation. This is unfair.

KING: Duty and honor are more than words in a state that honors its deep military tradition, yet for all the pride, there are also increasing signs of stress as repeat deployments strain military families, and more bloody days send the U.S. casualty count still higher.

SHIRK: You can choose to wallow around in self pity and say this sucks, I don't really like it and just kind of wallow around in it, or you can sit there and say, look, this is the reality; how am I going to make the best of it?

KING: Frank Hurley knows the strain first-hand. His 26-year-old daughter, Elizabeth, did an Iraq tour with her army unit two years ago, made it home, and received an honorable discharge.

FRANK HURLEY, FATHER OF CAPTAIN HURLEY: She had accepted a job, she had left town.

KING: But just before a summer deadline, the Army invoked its power to call Elizabeth back to active duty, and shipped her out for a second Iraq deployment.

HURLEY: I don't think that the president is evil in any way, or even uninterested in the sufferings of the military families; I think he's perhaps shown that he's not the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to formulating methods of managing the war.

KING: Retired Marine Colonel Jim Van Riper is somewhat more optimistic now that the Pentagon in is under new leadership, but says the president ultimately is responsible for strategic blunders in Iraq and for war opposition here at home.

COL. JIM VAN RIPER (RET.), U.S. MARINE CORPS: He has not articulated the policy, he's not articulated the strategy, he's not brought the country along. Most of the American people are just going about their normal business.

KING: Van Riper teaches a military strategy class full of officers who have been to Iraq twice or more. and know they will go again, especially now that the president is increasing troop levels.

RIPER: Like most Rangers, you're ready to go. That's what they signed on for. But you know it's there. I mean, when you talk to families, you see them, there's plenty of strain.

KING: And a mix of duty and worry as Iraq veterans prepare to deploy again and as new recruits train for their first taste of a controversial war now approaching the four-year mark.

John King, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: He'd likely duck the question if asked him, but President Bush, hobbled by low public approval and the calendar, is looking more and more like a lame duck. It happens to all presidents eventually, but all try to postpone it as long as they can.

CNN Senior Political Correspondent Candy Crowley looks at whether the title holds water in this case.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): It is the worst of times, it is the worst of circumstances. ROBERT DALLEK, HISTORIAN: There's an old saying in American history that war kills reform, or, more generally, undermines the president's ability to get anything done in domestic affairs.

CROWLEY: George Bush is in the twilight of his presidential years, at the dawn of the next presidential cycle. This evening's State of the Union Address finds him weaker and his critics stronger than at any other point. It is time for the lame duck question -- Is he or isn't he? Watch for members of his own party to answer.

DALLEK: More and more you're going to see him on the margins of influence because you have 21 Republicans or Republican seats up for grabs and only 12 Democratic seats up for grabs in the U.S. Senate.

CROWLEY: You can tell in the nuances of even the most loyal Bush supporters that the pulling away has begun.

(on camera): Do you consider yourself a Bush Republican? Or are you going to need to distance yourself from the president?

SEN. SAM BROWNBACK (R), KANSAS: I'm supporting the president on a number of issues, but I think we've got to go further, and I think we've got to get more bipartisan.

CROWLEY (voice over): Social Security, immigration, energy, healthcare, the list of things in need of fixing is lengthy and difficult, maybe impossible for a lame duck. Or maybe not.

LANNY DAVIS, FMR. CLINTON LEGAL ADVISER: I remember President Clinton in 1998 had so many ideas for the last two years of the Clinton administration. He was almost a liberated human being, because you're not running for re-election, you're running for history.

CROWLEY: And even if Republicans leave him in droves, there are some politicians with a vested interest in seeing that the next two years are as productive as possible.

SEN. HARRY REID (D-NV), MAJORITY LEADER: We vote Tuesday at noon.

CROWLEY: Remembering how politics makes for strange bedfellows.

MARY MATALIN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: The Democrats can't afford to do nothing for two years. This last midterm election was not about being in a free-fall or a stall for two years.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: Candy Crowley, all right. Lay it out. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck -- finish the sentence.

CROWLEY: It's not necessarily a duck. How about that?

Look, there's two schools of thought on this. One is that the president and the Democrats do both have an interest in getting something done. The other is that the Democrats feel so empowered that they think they can push things through over the president's objections.

So we'll have to see how it all plays out. But he is, you know, so weakened at this point that you at least have to ask the question.

PHILLIPS: So what can he do with this Democratic Congress? Anything?

CROWLEY: Well, sure. Because there -- I mean, first of all, immigration is the one everyone brings up because the president is closer to Democrats on immigration than he was to the Republicans when they were in the majority. Energy policy, healthcare -- there are a number of things they could get around, but not in huge ways.

Don't look for major reform in Social Security or in Medicare. Those are very contentious issues. It's not going to happen.

But around the margins, there are some things the president and this Congress can do so that when they head into the election -- the president, of course, will not be heading into election -- but when Democrats do, they will have something to say that they pass, because as was pointed out in that piece, they weren't elected to do nothing for the next two years. They were elected to be a counter to what was called the "do-nothing Congress."

So there's commonality of interests here that might produce some stuff.

PHILLIPS: All right. Well, let's lay out just a reality check of the State of the Union speech. I mean, this isn't going to affect his popularity at all, right?

CROWLEY: No, it's not. In fact, our research department did a look at this and said since the 1950s, the average State of the Union speech resulted in a .5 decrease in presidents' popularity. The White House is not looking for some huge increase here.

This is something that the president, obviously, does every year, any president does every year, and something he has to get through. The president will use the time to try to start turning towards the domestic agenda and also use the time to try to re-explain Iraq, why we're there in the first place, why there's a need for more troops, in the second place.

PHILLIPS: And let's just take a look at this poll and look at the numbers on this decline that has happened on his approval. My gosh, from 84 percent to 34 percent. Like you put it, it hasn't been this bad since Richard Nixon.

CROWLEY: It's true. And it's the war, the war, the war. I mean, that's what this is for.

What amazed me in these numbers, Kyra, was that the war in Afghanistan -- now you remember the war in Afghanistan. That's where the Taliban was. The Taliban, who gave aid and comfort to Osama bin Laden.

Now the majority of people oppose the war in Afghanistan. This is nothing but fallout from the war in Iraq. PHILLIPS: So Iraq is just tainting everything.

CROWLEY: It is. It is. It taints the -- the one sort of bright spot is people do seem to think the economy is doing all right, but everything else is like some sort of patina. Iraq is sitting like some sort of patina over all those other issues, and it depresses the numbers.

PHILLIPS: Candy Crowley, well, you never depress us. You just bring us through reality.

Great to see you. Thanks a lot.

CROWLEY: Good to see you.

PHILLIPS: Well, of course Candy is part of the best political team on television. And that team has got tonight's State of the Union covered.

Things kick off at 7:00 Eastern with a special two-hour edition of "THE SITUATION ROOM" with Wolf Blitzer. The president's address begins at 9:00 Eastern, followed by the Democratic response.

Then we respond with a special "ANDERSON COOPER 360" at 10:30 Eastern. And at midnight, a late-night "LARRY KING LIVE."

LEMON: Well, hit us, we'll hit you back. New al Qaeda threats against the U.S.

Details straight ahead in the NEWSROOM.

PHILLIPS: Plus, with stem-cell research such a political hot potato in the U.S., some patients are seeking unorthodox treatments outside U.S. borders. Buying hope straight ahead from the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: Scheduled to be in the gallery in the U.S. Capitol tonight, actor and Parkinson's suffer Michael J. Fox. His goal is to keep the stem-cell debate in the spotlight.

Little progress has been made in finding treatments for debilitating illnesses since President Bush limited federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research. So some people are looking elsewhere for unproven and highly experimental treatments.

Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta has one man's story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIM DUNN, QUADRIPLEGIC: I believe I'll walk again. I believe this very firmly.

SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Six years ago, Jim Dunn, a former Marine and one of the most active guys you'd ever meet, was walking down the street. He was violently struck from behind on the spine with a steel rod by an unknown assailant. Suddenly, he was paralyzed from the neck down.

His doctors didn't offer any hope. So Dunn turned for help where many turn in desperation, the Internet. He found a Web site offering an experimental procedure he saw as his only option. It would involve a trip from California to China and $40,000.

A neurosurgeon there, Dr. Huang Hongyun uses olfactory and sheeting cells. They are not stem cells, but they do come from aborted fetuses, which are readily available in China.

Huang believes these nose and brain cells can help nerve fibers recover and repair themselves. Dr. Huang says he has performed more than 1,000 operations, directly injecting these cells into the brain or spine cord. He has done it for ALS, Parkinson's, multiple sclerosis, strokes, cerebral palsy, and yes, spinal cord operations.

Dr. Glenn Dobkin, a UCLA neurologist who's examined some of Huang's other patients, criticizes his lack of clinical trials and follow-up with his patients.

DR. GLENN DOBKIN, UCLA NEUROLOGIST PROFESSOR: These patients that I saw came back with holes in the brain, holes in different parts of the spinal cord, and no improvement.

GUPTA: CNN got an exclusive interview with Dr. Huang this past summer.

DR. HUANG HONGYUN, NEUROSURGEON: I never tell patients all treatment, all procedures can cure them. I never tell them.

GUPTA: In China, Dr. Huang told the 68-year-old Dunn he would receive an injection of one million nose and brain cells into his spinal cord. Before Dunn's surgery, hospital nurses shot this video of him. He had a hard time doing simple tasks.

According to his sister's journal, the operation was dicey. Dunn stopped breathing. He flat-lined, almost died. He was resuscitated.

Awake, he reported feeling sensations in both arms that he didn't have before. And later, some in his hands and fingers. Several months later, though, he still can't walk. Huang says he's not surprised.

HUANG: For Jim Dunn, I don't think he can recover to walk.

GUPTA: Jim was stunned.

DUNN: He never told me that. It seems kind of incongruous to think that he would take my money knowing that he wasn't going to be able to do anything for me, doesn't it?

GUPTA: Still, even today, Dunn holds out hope.

DUNN: I'm always going to believe that this venture that I have embarked upon is going to pay the dividends that I want it to. I got two parachutes left with about 6,000 jumps still left on them. And I intend to get every one of them. GUPTA: Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN, reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LEMON: And we should note Jim Dunn receives intense physical therapy, so it's hard to say whether the movement and the feeling he's regained were from the surgery or from his own hard work.

PHILLIPS: New year, old message. Al Qaeda's number two preaches an eye for an eye. What's behind the words? We're going to tell you in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: Scooter says he's a scapegoat. Opening statements today in the trial of Dick Cheney's former chief of staff, Lewis "Scooter" Libby, accused of lying to investigators in the CIA leak case.

CNN Justice Correspondent Kelli Arena was at the D.C. courthouse.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: This is day one, the perjury trial of Lewis "Scooter" Libby, formerly Vice President Cheney's right-hand man. The prosecution in this case, Patrick Fitzgerald, came out fighting right from the start, presenting a very detailed timeline of when he says that Libby learned of Valerie Wilson's identity as someone who worked for the CIA. And he says that knowledge dates back to June of 2003.

He then played an audiotape, a very unusual move. An audiotape of Libby's testimony before the grand jury in which Libby tells those jurors that he did not learn of Plame's -- Wilson's identity until late July from a reporter, Tim Russert, of NBC News. And Fitzgerald, of course, says this contradicts what he learned factually and proves that Libby is lying.

Of course, Libby's lawyer then gets up in his opening statements, Ted Wells (ph), and says, look, this is a paper-thin, circumstantial, he said-she said case. There is absolutely no evidence that Libby lied. This is a very busy man, he was asked about conversations he had three months after the fact. No one could remember this, especially someone in his position.

And that really is what this case is all about. That is the crux. Did Scooter Libby intentionally lie or did, as he claims, his memory fail him?

This trial is expected to last between four and six weeks. The highlight of today, of course, those opening statements.

Kelli Arena, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LEMON: Well, hit us, we'll hit you back. New al Qaeda threats against the U.S.

Details straight ahead right here in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: Hello again, everyone. I'm Kyra Phillips live at the CNN World Headquarters in Atlanta.

LEMON: And I'm Don Lemon. Insurgent attacks in Iraq: could they be coming to America? New evidence shows al Qaeda in Iraq have plans. Details right now in the CNN NEWSROOM.

At first, a big speech to a tough crowd. The State of the Union Address now a little more than six hours away from an unpopular president facing a Congress in opposition hands. Iraq will be a big focus, but the White House is also promising bold proposals on the domestic front, including healthcare. Deputy Press Secretary Dana Perino gave us a preview last hour.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA PERINO, WHITE HOUSE DEPUTY PRESS SECRETARY: We look forward to the president being able to go up there and reveal his policy. And I hope that all the members of Congress will listen and have an open mind about it.

What's exciting is that this is basically going to bring those 45 to 46 million people who don't have health insurance into the world where they can have that health insurance, not have the anxiety that comes from not having health insurance. And it's going to stop the penalty against people who don't get insurance from their employer and have to buy it on their own. They will now get tax money -- a tax break in order to be able to purchase that money on their own and probably save on their taxes as well, most likely.

He will talk about immigration. This is obviously one of those topics where convictions run very deep on all sides. And the president is going to call for a very serious, a very civil debate, but one that is conclusive, one that will end up with a bill on his desk that he can sign this year.

You will hear similar things the president has talked about in this past year about increasing border security, temporary worker program, as well as rejecting amnesty, but also trying to assimilate new immigrants into the country.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LEMON: The president's speech is expected to last about 50 minutes.

PHILLIPS: Hello.

Well, health care is a taxing issue, and some say the president's proposal to be rolled in tonight's State of the Union will only make things worse. CNN's Brianna Keilar has a prognosis.

Hey, Brianna.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey there, Kyra.

So we're going to break this down for you because the question everyone wants an answer to is "Will this cost me more money?"

So one of the very controversial parts of the president's plan is the proposal to give that tax break to people who buy insurance as individuals. It could mean a few thousand dollars a year in the pocket for the estimated 17 million people who get their health insurance this way.

But for those of you who get your insurance through your employer, it could mean thousands in extra taxes for an estimated 35 million of you -- for some of you.

Now it's pretty easy to see if this proposal would cost you more money. For instance, I just called up my benefits person here at work and she gave me the COBRA rate on my insurance plan. And that's very close to what the premium is. So if your annual insurance premium -- pardon me -- is more than $7,500 and you're the only one on your plan, you would pay taxes on the difference between your premium and $7,500. Now, if your family is on your plan, you would pay taxes on any amount above $15,000.

The other part of the president's plan is to divert federal funds from hospitals that treat the uninsured and move that money, as much as $40 billion, to state governments. The federal government here would entrust states to come up with their own plans to make health insurance more available to Americans who can't afford it.

Now, Democratic leaders have attacked this plan, in particular the tax deduction part of it. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said today the plan doesn't make sense and that it punishes people because they have great insurance -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right.

Brianna Keilar, thanks for laying it out for us. Appreciate it.

LEMON: A new terror threat from al Qaeda sounds a lot like the old terror threat. But its lack of originality may be the point.

Here's CNN's Nic Robertson.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Already it's Ayman al-Zawahiri's second message this year, 22 in the past 13 months. It has a familiar ring.

AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI, AL QAEDA DEPUTY LEADER (translated from Arabic): Security is a shared destiny. If we are secure, you might be secure. And if we are safe, you might be safe. And if we are struck and killed, you will definitely, with God's permission, be struck and killed. This is the correct equation.

ROBERTSON: If the message is sounding a little bit old, check out Zawahiri in 2001. He was fresher then, too.

But don't be misled. What is repetitive for us, warns terror expert Peter Bergen, is motivational for al Qaeda supporters.

PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: These statements are akin to religious orders. And so, while they may not directly lead to attacks, any particular statement, the fact that Ayman al-Zawahiri and bin Laden are out there continually calling for attacks on Americans I think makes a difference. I mean, it makes the United States less safe.

ROBERTSON: As in the past, President Bush and his Iraq policy are the focus of Zawahiri's criticism. This time, Osama bin Laden's second in command picks up on a new development, President Bush's decision to send more troops.

AL-ZAWAHIRI: Send your entire army to be annihilated at the hands of the mujahadeen.

ROBERTSON: In the repetition of the messages, says Bergen, there is method.

BERGEN: Bin Laden believes that 90 percent of the war against the West is a media war. And, you know, the Pentagon has a term for this, information operations. And al Qaeda seems to understand this pretty well.

ROBERTSON on camera): So repetitive and common are the messages now the message may simply be the insult, "Five years after 9/11, we're still free. You haven't caught us yet."

A point he seems to rub in, claiming al Qaeda has safe haven in Afghanistan.

Nic Robertson, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: That new tape surfaced the same day that we learned about more fighting words: papers seized in Iraq that seem to outline al Qaeda ambitions to attack Americans in America.

Joining us with his insights and expertise in all of this, intelligence analyst and special forces vet Ken Robinson. He's in L.A.

Ken, good to see you.

KEN ROBINSON, TERRORISM ANALYST: Hi, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Well, we'll talk about the papers in a minute, but your reaction to the Zawahiri tape?

ROBINSON: It's precisely as Nic Robertson's report stated. It's information operations. He's communicating psychologically to the American public. He perceives the United States president to be weak and vulnerable. He's trying to divide domestic support for the war. They see that as a measure of their effectiveness. And he communicates to his own followers to improve recruitment and retention.

PHILLIPS: All right. You talk about the psychological goals. And let me talk about these papers that surfaced in this raid in Iraq, apparently a safehouse for members of al Qaeda, talking about specific attacks on the U.S. Is there a tactical reason to attack the U.S. right now, or is it just a psychological reason?

ROBINSON: I think it would be more psychological, Kyra. Since 2002, when CNN was in Afghanistan and had a large cache of tapes which became terror on tape, there was exploitation of the manuals of jihad and the instruction. And in that time it was evident that they were making targeting plans to come to the United States to do assassinations and to do bombings.

This information that came out of Iraq is the same type of nature. It's not anything alarming to the intelligence community because the community has known all along that the capability to attack in America was there and the intent was there. The only thing that they don't have is a clear and present idea of specifically when.

PHILLIPS: Well, all right. And we can talk about possible -- that possibility of the when because, obviously, if something was going to happen, it's going to have to top 9/11, right?

ROBINSON: That's correct. The assumption has been that they want to have something that has more audacity, that has more body count than the 9/11 attacks simply to make a statement that they're still in the game, they still have global reach, they can still reach and hurt the United States here on our own soil. It's valuable to them for their own objectives of recruitment, retention and their global jihad movement. So, yes, the expectation is -- but also, Kyra, it's important to know that there are also wannabe jihadists that the United States is concerned about here domestically from the prison systems, former militant Black Muslim converts who might be affiliated with, from some mosque, the radicalized and support a jihadist attempt in the United States. That's also a great concern.

PHILLIPS: OK. Then we'll touch on that again. I'm making note here because I'd like to get back to the possibility of these active cells that are working right now in the U.S.

But back to these papers in Iraq that talked about attacks on the U.S., they wanted to take 10 to 20 members of al Qaeda and get them here on student visas. With all the changes that have been made to homeland defense since 9/11, is that even possible, that members of al Qaeda could get here on student visas still?

ROBINSON: It's absolutely possible. Because we have a weak border system. The ICE structure that we have right now for student visas is still weak. School systems still don't fully cooperate with letting us know when someone has checked into a class and then doesn't participate in it.

Remember that all they've got to do is recruit someone within the United States who's already here on a legitimate visa and then convince them to do something illegitimate, which means that there's no way to screen it if they come into the country legitimately and then they are converted.

If you think about the Hamburg sell, almost all the 9/11 hijackers were here illegitimately. They had illegitimate issues on their visas and those same types of things could happen again.

PHILLIPS: All right. So then, what -- you're saying illegitimate visas. So you're talking about illegitimate student visas? Because my follow-up question was, whatever student visa is out there, whether it's a real one or it's illegitimate, is there any way to track these foreign nationals? And is it a university's responsibility to look at all the students that are here on a student visa and, OK, are they showing up for class? Did they even show up to the campus? Is any of that going on?

ROBINSON: Yes. It's a shared responsibility between the federal government and the State Department and the institution where the individual has enrolled.

However, because we're such a large country, because of the inefficiencies in our bureaucracy, because we don't do an efficient job of connecting the dots through intelligence sharing and information sharing, it simply is still very vulnerable. It would not be hard to do, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: So you're telling me right now that every student that is here on a student visa from overseas -- it's not being monitored?

ROBINSON: It is being monitored.

PHILLIPS: Every single one?

ROBINSON: It's being monitored inefficiently.

PHILLIPS: OK. So you're saying that -- all right. What do you mean by inefficiently?

ROBINSON: The databases and the systems and the diligence by which the State Department or the university monitors a resident student participating in a class is hit and miss depending on which college or university or which program. And there's nothing to prevent that student, who may be here legitimately and attending classes legitimately, to one day simply stop. And by the time that person stops and it's reported, he's disappeared into a very large country.

PHILLIPS: I guess we have to pray that the system will once again get better. ROBINSON: It takes constant vigilance on all parts, federal, state, local and the population to make it better.

PHILLIPS: Ken Robinson.

Once again, thanks, Ken, for the reality check. Appreciate the time today.

ROBINSON: Thank you.

LEMON: Well, one of the in addition's most recognizable retailers is out shopping for a new CEO.

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SUSAN LISOVICZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Coming up, the class of '07 has more than one reason to toss their caps and celebrate. I'll have details next hour.

You're watching CNN, the most trusted name in news.

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PHILLIPS: T.J. Holmes working details on a developing story for us out of the NEWSROOM.

Is this out of Iraq, T.J.?

HOLMES: Yes, we're heading over to Iraq. We got word earlier that a security helicopter -- the helicopter of a private security company had been shot down in Baghdad. We are now hearing that five civilians who were aboard that helicopter have died in that crash. This crash happened in Baghdad. It was in a predominantly Sunni area, but U.S. officials according to the "Associated Press" did say at least that this helicopter was shot down and now the "Associated Press" is reporting that five civilians who were on board that chopper were killed.

This security company that was operating that helicopter again, according to the "Associated Press," was Blackwater USA. It was that private security company. But again that helicopter shot down, according to U.S. military officials, in a Sunni area. A Sunni neighborhood, heavily Sunni neighborhood of Baghdad and five civilians on board were killed.

We are working the story and hope to get -- certainly will get more details and we'll bring them to you when we do get them, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right T.J., appreciate it. We're going to take a quick break. In the meantime, we'll be right back.

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LEMON: That was a look at some of the Oscar nominations announced just this morning. We'll have more on who is in, who's in the running a little bit later on. But first, Dakota Fanning's new movie is dogged by controversy. But that's rarely a bad thing for new movies. The film premiered at Sundance last night to an incredibly crowded house. Brooke Anderson joins us now live from Park City, Utah, with the latest on this controversy. What's going on, Brooke?

BROOKE ANDERSON, CNN ENTERTAINMENT CORRESPONDENT: Hi Don, as you mentioned, it premiered last night. It's a highly anticipated, controversial film, had its first public screenings.

And yes, it's caused extreme uneasiness because of the fact that 12-year-old Dakota Fanning is featured in a violent rape scene. Even the president of the Catholic League, William Donohue, who has not seen the film, is calling for a federal investigation to determine if child pornography laws were violated during filming.

Now at last night's premiere, the director of the movie, Deborah Kampmeier, responded to Donohue's criticism. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DEBORAH KAMPMEIER, DIRECTOR, HOUNDDOG: I think it's sort of ironic that, you know, there's been no real probes into investigating the sexual abuse in their church. And they are attacking us, a film they haven't even seen that's really about bringing consciousness and healing to this very important issue that's a real epidemic our society.

DAKOTA FANNING, ACTRESS: My reaction is I hope that people that haven't seen the movie and are saying some things, that I hope that they see the movie. And you know, I don't let things I can't control bother me. I know how much I love this story and how much I love my character and no one can ever change that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: There was criticism that Dakota was being exploited, being pushed to do this role. But as you heard her tell CNN, as you heard her tell us, that's not the case. She makes her own decisions.

Now, Don, I was one of the first journalists to see the movie and yes, the rape scene is very unsettling, very disturbing, but at the same time, it's only a few seconds long. It's very brief. Dakota is not exposed. You just see her face and really her arm.

But in much of the movie, she is wearing underwear and a tank top. So there are a lot of suggestive, very provocative scenes. So it's disturbing, no doubt about it. But I suspect it will get picked up here, get a distributor and you probably will also hear Dakota's name come next year's award season.

LEMON: Yes, I was going to ask, it flashed up on the screen. What is she, 12 or 13-years-old? I can imagine why it is disturbing to see someone that young, a rape scene on television.

ANDERSON: Absolutely. LEMON: All right, let's move on and talk about happier things, Brooke. The Academy Award nominations this morning, very interesting connection though between Sundance, the film festival and the Oscar contenders. What is that connection?

ANDERSON: Very interesting connection because a number of films, Don, that debuted here last year at the Sundance Film Festival are getting huge recognition by the academy. Listen to this. "Little Miss Sunshine," a movie that nobody had heard of, nobody knew anything about that was here at Sundance last year, received four Academy Award nominations.

You know it was just a year ago I was interviewing Steve Carell, Toni Colette, Alan Arkin and Greg Kinnear here. And you know, some people here at the festival were even scoffing at the movie. But then it got picked up for $10.5 million, went on to be a huge success and now is up for four Oscars, including that most coveted category, that most coveted award, best picture.

Also Al Gore's documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" about global warming, it landed two Oscar nominations, including one for best documentary feature. It will compete against another Sundance movie from last year called "Iraq In Fragments."

And Dan last, but not least, Ryan Gosling is nominated for best actor for his commanding role in -- commanding performance in "Half Nelson." So tremendous success stories coming out of Sundance. And I'll be eager to see what happens this year and what we're talking about next year at this time.

LEMON: Absolutely, and I think a lot of people were shocked that "Dreamgirls" didn't get a best picture nomination or something like that?

ANDERSON: Didn't get a best picture nomination but it leads all the other nominees with the most nominations. So it was recognized, but it was snubbed in that best picture category to the surprise of a lot of people, including myself.

LEMON: All right, Brooke Anderson, stay warm, enjoy. We'll be talking about the Oscars in our next hour right here in the NEWSROOM.

PHILLIPS: Last year, President Bush promised action to help America break its addiction to oil. Our Ali Velshi looks at what happened or didn't happen on that front just ahead from the CNN NEWSROOM.

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