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American Morning
Secret Intelligence Report Reveals al Qaeda at Strongest Since 9/11; Iraq Progress Report; Consumer Debt
Aired July 12, 2007 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR (voice over): Al Qaeda comeback. This morning, an alarming new report claims al Qaeda is as strong as it was before September 11th. The evidence and the warning.
MICHAEL CHERTOFF, HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: We can never rest on our laurels. The enemy is continuing to change.
CHETRY: Plus, war report. The White House's critical update on Iraq today, as secrets revealed from CIA strategy sessions ignite a new firestorm on this AMERICAN MORNING.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHETRY: And thanks for being with us. It is Thursday, July 12th.
I'm Kiran Chetry, along with John Roberts.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you.
CHETRY: Nice to see you this morning.
Well, we begin with new developments in a story that we have been following for you all morning, and that is an American Airlines flight. It was from Los Angeles, heading nonstop to London, until it diverted at JFK airport.
A passenger was detained, and this all happened after an alert flight attendant or member of the crew noticed that the man in question was on an employee bus before the flight, which would mean this person did not have to go through security like you would if you were a regular passenger. That person this crew member noticed also was not wearing an I.D.
Well, she reported that security breach to the pilot, and that's when Flight 136 called for an emergency landing. Now, it all could have been a misunderstanding, we're learning right now, because I spoke a few moments ago with Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, and here's what he said. Some new details that came out first here on CNN.
Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) CHERTOFF: I have gotten a report that the individual in question was, in fact, an employee who was traveling in a private capacity. I think the good news here, of course, is an alert crew sees something that's anomalous or seems a little bit questionable and they take action. It may very well turn out that this is nothing more than a misunderstanding with an employee who used an employee bus to get on a plane for a private flight.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Well, there you have it. We are going to continue to follow the developments, try to get a little bit more confirmation on that. But again, our homeland security chief is telling us that's what he heard from -- from American Airlines.
We have our Alina Cho. She's heading to JFK airport. Actually, she's there right now. And we're going to be getting a live report from her in just a couple of minutes.
ROBERTS: Of course, Kiran, all of this comes to light at the same time as a secret intelligence report is revealed. It says that al Qaeda is now at its strongest since 9/11 and is ready for new attacks.
We are also expecting President Bush to deliver a progress report on Iraq.
We are covering it from all of the angles this morning. Justice Correspondent Kelli Arena is in our Washington bureau. Barbara Starr is at the Pentagon. Dana bash is on Capitol Hill.
We begin with Kelli Arena and the chilling terror assessment.
Kelli, this report is called "Al Qaeda Better Positioned to Strike the West".
What's it telling us?
KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, first of all, it's classified. And so, we've spoken to officials who have seen a five-page summary of that report. And basically, it lays out that al Qaeda is stronger.
It is not as strong as it was right before the 9/11 attacks, but it's the strongest that it's been in years. So they are seeing this organization rebuild itself. Lots of concern about activity along the Pakistan tribal areas, along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and how the organization has been able to train, raise money, reconstitute itself in that area.
ROBERTS: Is it telling us anything about current capabilities?
ARENA: You know, I don't know what it says about current capabilities. But we do know that there's been a lot of public discussion about that, about al Qaeda forming new alliances with other terrorist groups. We just -- we've just heard of an alliance between a terrorist group in Algeria, John. We also know that we saw what we saw in London. You know, if it's not al Qaeda central, there are certainly many extremists out there who will act for the cause.
ROBERTS: All of this put together raising a lot of concerns here in the United States for what might lie ahead this summer.
Kelli Arena for us in our Washington bureau.
Kelli, thanks.
ARENA: You're welcome.
CHETRY: The president's progress report on the war in Iraq could be sent to Congress as early as today. And of the 18 benchmark goals the president set out for the Iraqi government, there are signs of both military gains and also political setbacks.
CNN's Barbara Starr is live at the Pentagon with more details for us.
Hi, Barbara.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Kiran.
Well, you know, you're right. It is going to be a very mixed picture, but not one that's very optimistic, at least not for now.
Just consider one of the benchmarks, benchmark number 13, if you will. That's the one that says there has to be a reduction in sectarian violence. Very critical.
So, what's the result? Well, in fact, sectarian violence is down in some areas of Iraq. But whether the overall benchmark for sectarian violence being down, that critical marker that Congress and the Bush administration want to see, that is the type of thing that we'll be looking for in this report, because unless you bring down sectarian violence, you stop the Sunni-on-Shia killing, political progress in Iraq simply will not move forward, according to military commanders.
They still need to see a much calmer security environment in Iraq. That's the bottom line. That's what people are going to be looking for in this report -- Kiran.
CHETRY: Some of the other questions, are they moving any closer to reconciliation, to being able to get a national university government actually running together? And then secondly, that big debate over sharing oil revenues.
STARR: Well, exactly right. Those are the political markers that all indications are the report later -- if it is issued later today -- will say those political markers have not been met. Those are vital. That is the kind of progress that is going to make Iraq stand up as a functioning government on its own and set the stage for U.S. troops to come home. But without that political progress, that is not going to happen. And that can't happen unless there's an improved security picture. So it's all tied together.
CHETRY: It sure is.
Barbara Starr at the Pentagon for us.
Thank you.
ROBERTS: The report certainly is going to stir things up in Congress today.
Dana Bash is on Capitol Hill.
Dana, I imagine critics of the Iraq war are getting all set to light the fuse this morning.
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: They sure are. But, you know, in many ways this report is not going to tell senators much that they don't know. However, seeing it in black and white, especially the poor marks it is expected to give for the Iraqi government, will no doubt have an effect on the debate here.
John, every day I talk to Republican senators in the halls here, it seems I find somebody else who says the current strategy needs to be changed now. And the president's national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, heard that loud and clear here yesterday. He talked privately to Republican senators, asked for patience, and they said, you know what -- many of them said we don't want to wait. September is too late, we want a change now.
ROBERTS: So, Dana, the Democrats are still going to put together -- or put forward this idea of starting, you know, troop pullouts as soon as possible. They peeled off one or two Republicans, but they still don't have enough to pass the bill.
Why aren't they signing on to maybe something like the Levin bill or the Salazar bill, which is a little softer and is attracting the support of some Republicans?
BASH: You know, that is going to be the really interesting thing to watch here in the next couple of weeks. The reality of that, just as you said, despite all this growing opposition -- and there really is growing opposition -- finding consensus is going to be perhaps near impossible.
You mentioned the fact that Democrats did pick up one more Republican yesterday on their demand for a deadline for troops to come home by May 1st, but that's just one more. That's three. That will not come even close to what they need to actually pass it.
There are other ideas out there, but some of the Democratic leaders say that they don't go far enough. So, by the end of this debate, it is possible that we probably might not see this growing opposition turn into actual action.
ROBERTS: All right.
Dana Bash for us on Capitol Hill.
Dana, thanks.
BASH: Thank you.
(NEWSBREAK)
(WEATHER REPORT)
ROBERTS: Troubling new numbers on America's addiction to cheap credit.
Ali Velshi watching consumer debt for you this morning.
Good morning, Ali.
ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, John.
A report from the Federal Reserve says that as house prices have dropped, Americans can't use their homes as their ATMs anymore. They are turning back to that trusted credit card.
Guess what credit card rates are going at right now? The average rate for carrying a balance, 13.46 percent. That is the highest in five years.
A lot of problems with using your credit card. Number one is that home equity and mortgages are tax deductible. They also tend to force you to pay off the principle, where credit cards don't. So you get stuck in this debt trap.
Something also that's going on, banks -- the report from the Center for Responsible Lending says banks are making it easier for people to overdraw their accounts. You're finding that when you write checks or go to an ATM and take money out that you don't have, it's still going through.
$17.5 billion in overdraft fees in 2006. This is for people who don't have things already set up for their bank. That's up 70 percent from 2004 when they first started tracking the numbers.
Look at that. The average overdraft fee if you don't have something set up with your bank, $34. So people are going to overdraft, they're going to their credit cards because the homes and those interest rates on those homes and the value of those homes aren't what they used to be -- John.
ROBERTS: No wonder they're so eager to let people overdraft.
VELSHI: Absolutely.
(CROSSTALK) ROBERTS: Ali Velshi, thanks very much.
And a new study on childhood obesity that shows taunting and bullying can have lasting physical effects.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta is on this one for us this morning.
Good morning, Sanjay.
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, John.
This one caught our eye as well.
No surprise that all that teasing and taunting of overweight and obese children can have an effect. What surprised us, though, was the severity and extent of some of those effects.
A new study coming out. Actually, four decades of research compiled, a lot of that psychological research, just trying to determine how significant and how profound the effect can be, things like name calling, things like exclusion from social gatherings, even physical abuse. What happens to those children as they grow into adulthood?
It can be associated with things like eating disorders later on. It can be associated with problems that extend far into adulthood, including hypertension. We're going to talk about a lot of those things and tell you what can be done about it as well in about a half an hour -- John.
ROBERTS: All right. We'll see you then, Sanjay.
And don't forget, it's Thursday, so Sanjay's mailbag coming up later on this morning on AMERICAN MORNING -- Kiran.
(NEWSBREAK)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: A pretty big scare this morning, a pretty big inconvenience for some passengers. But could it all have been a misunderstanding?
You are looking at live pictures right now from LAX on your left and JFK on your right. Both airports were involved this morning in a situation.
An American Airlines flight from LAX bound for London had to divert to JFK airport. A passenger was detained. It all happened after a flight attendant noticed that the man in question had taken an employee bus before the flight.
When you take an employee bus, you don't have to go through security checkpoints. You can just get on. He was not wearing an I.D. And she reported this security breach to the pilot when she noticed him on that flight. This was Flight 136, American Airlines.
Well, they made an emergency landing here at JFK, as you see on your screen right now, a live picture of JFK. But earlier I spoke with Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff. He reported some new details first on CNN, saying that the man might have been an employee who was not wearing an employee uniform because he was taking a personal flight, but that he used his credentials to get into that secure parking lot and then go ahead and ride that secure bus which allows to you bypass security and then get on the flight.
Of course this story is still developing. We hope to hear a little bit more from the TSA or American Airlines. We have Alina Cho there. We're going to check in with her in just a couple of minutes.
ROBERTS: President Bush is expected to deliver an interim report on Iraq today that paints a very mixed picture of what's going on the ground there. Not a whole lot of progress. What progress there is, is mostly on the security and military side with the Iraqi army. The Iraqi government not making much progress toward its benchmarks at all.
Senator Jack Reed is just back from Iraq, and he's at the Pentagon this morning, where he's going to be talking with Pentagon officials.
Senator Reed, your reaction to what you know of the report that's coming out?
SEN. JACK REED (D), RHODE ISLAND: Well, the report seems to correspond with my observations in Iraq that the military, particularly the Iraqi army, has made some progress. The Iraqi police are still really confused, disorganized and riddled with sectarian infiltration. And then the government itself, in terms of delivering services to the people, seems to be quite dysfunctional.
So I think the report will reflect that. And I think that will help us and form the debate.
ROBERTS: We had the White House press secretary, Tony Snow, on AMERICAN MORNING on Tuesday. He's downplaying this idea of benchmarks.
Take a quick listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TONY SNOW, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Benchmarks are not a device for trying to figure out how to get out of Iraq, they're a device for figuring out how to succeed in Iraq. And so I think it's going to set off an important debate. But this is not the beginning of the end, it's the beginning of a new way.
(END VIDEO CLIP) ROBERTS: So, Senator Reed, he's downplaying this idea of benchmarks, saying that they're not the way out of Iraq.
Is the Iraqi government capable of achieving any of these goals that Congress set out for it?
REED: It appears to me that they don't have the political will or the -- at this point the political capacity to make really tough decisions. They've been struggling over a new law to distribute petroleum revenues, they've made no real progress in terms of integrating and reconciling the Sunni community.
So, as a result, I think it's going to take a very, very long time. And frankly, I don't think they have the time nor we have the time to stand by and let them continue to meander.
ROBERTS: So, on the topic of time, is it time for U.S. forces to leave Iraq?
REED: It's time for us to change the strategy, change the missions. I think unlike benchmarks, I think talking about missions is the appropriate form of debate. And I think we have to focus on much more limited missions -- counterterroism, train the Iraqi forces and protect the armed forces. And I think by doing that we can reduce or footprint without any type of precipitous withdrawal.
ROBERTS: So, this bill that you are co-sponsoring with Senator Levin would call for U.S. troops to begin to draw down within 120 days of it passing, with them all to be out of a combat role by next April.
What about this idea that the president, the leader of your party, keeps on talking about, this idea that timetables play into the enemy's hands?
REED: Well, we have a timetable in effect because we can't sustain this troop level past next spring. That's because of the size of the Army.
The president, too little and too late, has tried to increase the size of the Army. So the reality is there is a constraint that most people are aware of.
This, I think, might be a nice debating point, but the reality is we've got to change the missions. We have got to begin to withdraw forces, and we have to do that because of the constraints of the military and also because public support is necessary for any strategy. And that support is waning.
ROBERTS: I'm sorry, I meant the leader of the Republican Party.
REED: That's right.
ROBERTS: I was up...
REED: He's our president, though.
ROBERTS: I was up late last night. My apologies.
REED: Quite all right, John.
ROBERTS: Is the president going to be forced to make some sort of course change here?
REED: I think the president is going to do that. My sense in talking to General Petraeus is that he is contemplating a full range of options, that he's realistic about the capacity of the military to continue this effort over many, many months. And that he recognizes, too, that without the public's support, that it's very difficult to carry out any policy.
So I think there's a change coming. Our efforts, I think, is to try to focus that change and to try to accelerate the change.
ROBERTS: All right.
Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island.
Thanks very much for being with us. Appreciate it.
REED: Thanks, John.
(NEWSBREAK)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: And welcome back to AMERICAN MORNING.
There's a new U.S. intelligence report out saying that al Qaeda is as strong as it's been in years, so we are talking about whether or not the fight against international terrorists has been as successful as we had hoped or whether some are chalking it up as a failure at this point. Today, we're going to hear from the Bush administration about the progress and the Iraq government as well, and whether key political and military benchmarks have been met.
So what will it mean for the Iraq debate in Congress?
Joining us to talk about all of this, Jane Hamsher. She is the founder of the blog site -- sorry -- it's firedoglake.com. Also, Robert Bluey is with the Heritage Foundation. He also contributes to a blog called Bluey Blog at robertbluey.com.
Whoa, that's a lot to keep track of this morning.
Thanks to both of you for being with us.
Now, Jane, I noticed right at the front of your blog, the first thing you have is a snippet of that video that was made by some firefighters -- a firefighters union, in fact -- that calls Rudy Giuliani a "urban legend," saying that he did not do enough to prevent what ended up happening and taking the lives of so many firefighters on 9/11.
What are people on your blog saying about that?
JANE HAMSHER, FIREDOGLAKE.COM: I think people really are challenging the idea that Rudy wants to put forward that he is the hero of 9/11. Clearly, if you listen to what the firefighters are saying, he could have done a lot more to protect the city. And largely, his reputation is based on having given a lot of press conferences after 9/11. And I think he's going to have to do a lot more to prove that he really is the expert on international terrorism that he claims to be.
CHETRY: Well, I think there are certainly people that do not agree with that assessment.
Robert, this is something that Rudy Giuliani I think expected that he might have to deal with, people who have been critical of him, especially this particular firefighters union.
How do you think conservatives are going to try to help Rudy counter that?
ROBERT BLUEY, ROBERTBLUEY.COM: Well, I think the early reaction is this firefighters group. It's a partisan group known to support Democrats in the past.
I think Giuliani's campaign has tried to get out in front, reaching out to bloggers, in fact, to try to set the record straight and make sure that it is seen that way. I think conservatives probably -- I don't know how much weight they're going to put on this. I think they're more concerned about issues like the war in Iraq and the spread of terrorism than we have...
CHETRY: Let's talk about that real quick, Robert. It seems that it really is subject to interpretation today, what success is, as this White House report comes out about Iraqis meeting benchmarks and whether or not we are seeing any glimmer of progress in Iraq when public opinion is turning so far the other way.
BLUEY: Well, I think the issue, especially in the circles that I travel in on the conservative blogs, there's definitely a willingness to stick by the Bush administration and stand with the surge. I mean, as we know, the surge has just begun, really.
I mean, in June was the first time we had all the troops there. We really are just getting a progress report now. We'll get another report in September. And Democrats in Congress simply just want to -- want to run.
Senator Reed, who was just on this program, made it clear that he's willing to, you know, abandon any -- abandon the strategy. And we haven't given it a chance to work.
CHETRY: All right.
Jane, do they want to run or do they want to listen to their constituents?
HAMSHER: I think they want to reflect the will of the American people, who are overwhelmingly in favor of getting out of Iraq.
The surge isn't working. Only someone like a fantasist like Joe Lieberman, as Michael Ware of CNN called him, would believe that it was.
There's violence now in the Green Zone. The "L.A. Times" reported this week that a mortar went off killing -- mortars went off killing three people. Violence is up all around. June, I believe, was the most violent month so far.
So I don't think people are buying it. The benchmarks are not being met that we were told are going to be met. And I think that people believe that we need a plan to get out of Iraq now.
CHETRY: Like I said, it is subject to interpretation, though. "The New York Times" article today says there's been a decline in sectarian violence, but there's no doubt that many people have shifted away from believing that things are going to improve.
So, thanks for keeping an eye on this for us. And we will check back in with you.
Jane Hamsher, as well as Robert Bluey, thanks.
BLUEY: Thank you.
HAMSHER: Thank you.
ROBERTS: Well, kids can be cruel. And now a new study shows the effects of bullying and taunting are more serious than you might think.
We are paging Dr. Gupta coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: A live picture, this morning, of JFK Airport in New York City, where officials are trying to figure out what happened on board an American Airlines flight from Los Angeles International Airport bound for London, England, that had to divert there. Apparently some sort of security breach. Certainly threw a scare into a lot of people. They're trying to get it all worked out right now.
Good morning to you. It's Thursday, the 12th of July. I'm John Roberts, along with Kiran Chetry.
Good morning to you.
CHETRY: Good to see you.
And good to see you, as well. We begin with these new developments. It's a story that broke right here on AMERICAN MORNING we are finding out new details by the minute.
A security scare on an American Airlines flight actually could end up being a big misunderstanding. What we know right now is just about three hours ago, American Airlines Flight 136, from LAX to London, had to make an emergency landing at JFK.
Police then got on that plane, detained a man, took him off the flight, actually questions a woman sitting next to him, as well. An alert flight attendant is the one who called for that landing after realizing that the man was someone that she had seen riding an employee bus, but not wearing an I.D. before the flight.
So within the hour Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff updated the story first on CNN. He told me the man is an employee of the airline, that's at least what he got from American Airlines, and that all of it could have been a big misunderstanding. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL CHERTOFF, DIRECTOR, HOMELAND SECURITY: I have gotten a report that the individual in question was, in fact, an employee, who was traveling in a private capacity.
I think the good news here, of course, is an alert crew sees something that is anomalous, or questionable, and they take action. It may turn out that this is nothing more than a misunderstanding with an employee, who used an employee bus, to get on a plane for a private flight.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: There you have it. AMERICAN MORNING's Alina Cho is live at JFK. She joins us with more on this.
Even if it was a misunderstanding, it certainly was a travel headache for all these passengers that were on board that trans- Atlantic flight.
ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's absolutely right, Kiran. In fact, those passengers, most, if not all of them, are already at Gate 8 of Terminal 8, here at JFK Airport. They are scheduled to leave on American Airlines Flight 142 at 8:30 a.m., bound for London's Heathrow Airport.
Now, had the flight not been diverted to JFK, they would already be in London. Now they are eight hours behind schedule. We have not been able to get to those passengers, but I can tell you, having gone up to the check-in counter, it's business as usual up there.
When I asked someone at the check-in counter whether I could speak to somebody about this, she did not know what was going on. I had to tell her. Business as usual, check-in counter lines are a bit long, but otherwise, seems normal up there.
A couple of things that still need to be sorted out, according to the TSA. That alert flight attendant that we have been talking about, who apparently saw this other flight attendant on the employee bus at LAX, from what we understand from the TSA, that flight attendant believed he or she saw that other fellow flight attendant. That needs to be worked out.
Second point, that still needs to be worked out, if that was, indeed a flight attendant that got on to the employee bus, with a badge, that still was not proper procedure. That employee would have had to have go through proper screening procedures, as a regular passenger, because that person was flying in a private capacity.
Finally, if there were indeed air marshals on board, those air marshals did not take action. But at this point, Kiran, it appears, as you mentioned, that this is a big misunderstanding. The good news, as you heard from Homeland Security Chief Michael Chertoff is that there was an alert crew member.
Of course, a big hassle for those passengers, but they will get to London eventually.
CHETRY: I was thinking about it from, you know, a different point of view as well, this morning. It seems interesting, hopefully we'll find out details of what type of conversation took place. I mean, if the guy was just able to confirm he was an employee, why divert that plane, and inconvenience all those people if they could figure out that he really did work there?
CHO: That's absolutely right. Listen, you know, it's unclear if that was, indeed, an employee, whether he or she -- whether he showed a badge.
Now, I was talking to my producer about this earlier. Listen, when we fly in a personal capacity, for personal reasons, I don't take my CNN I.D. with me. It's entirely possible that that flight attendant, if it was indeed a flight attendant, was not carrying I.D, perhaps he was. That still needs to be sorted out, Kiran.
CHETRY: A lot of questions this morning. So far, at least, it looks like the potential for a terror threat, that probably was not the case. A misunderstanding that ended up inconveniencing a lot of people and probably scaring a few people as well. Alina Cho --
CHO: That is the good news.
CHETRY: Yeah, very true. We will check in with you the next hour. Thanks, Alina.
ROBERTS: The president could send an official progress report on Iraq to Congress today. And it does not paint a very good picture of how the Iraqi government is measuring up. Our Hala Gorani is live now in Baghdad to bring us details from there.
Hala, this report, as we understand it, had to qualify the progress being made by the Iraqi government to say they made satisfactory progress on not quite half a number of benchmarks that Congress laid out. They are not painting this in a black and white pass/fail type thing. From your standpoint there, is that because this government does not seem capable of meeting these major benchmarks?
HALA GORANI, CNN INT'L. CORRESPONDENT: Well, really politically and legislatively you could argue that there is no unity and no sense of cooperation when it comes to passing very important legislation that is designed, essentially, to promote national reconciliation.
I'm referring to laws to share revenues from oil, for instance, or laws that are designed to reintegrate former members of the Baath regime. What we're expecting from this interim progress report, though, is for the White House to point at relative success when it comes to sectarian killings.
Now, while it is true, though, John, that in Baghdad we have gone from finding 2,000 bullet-riddled and tortured bodies on the streets of the Iraqi capital per month to about 600 last month, really the level of sectarian killings is just back to where it was before the bombing of that Shiite shrine in Samarra that sparked bloody sectarian conflict. So, it is progress year-on-year, but if you look at it from the beginning of the invasion to today, you can't really argue that it is -- John.
ROBERTS: While the violence in Baghdad proper may have decreased some, in other areas of the country it's way up.
GORANI: It is. And, again, it depends province by province. If you look at the north, it's relatively more peaceful. If you look at the south, even though there are militia battles going on in that part of the country, day-to-day killings are lower.
If you look at Diyala Province, for instance, where the troop surge operation and strategy is in full swing, you may see higher numbers of deaths. But mainly among U.S. troops.
So the big question is, is the security situation better in Iraq? If you look at individual numbers, you can make that argument. If you look at the overall picture though, it's shifting from the civilians, for instance, to the Iraqi police. The number of deaths among Iraqi security forces is way up over the last year, John.
ROBERTS: And certainly Iraqi officials, Hala, painting a dire picture for what might happen if the United States were to precipitously pull its troops out of there.
Hala Gorani for us this morning in Baghdad. Hala, thanks.
A new study out says that taunts directed at overweight and obese children can have physical and emotional effects that last well into adulthood. This is the real stunning part, here, the report says those kids grow up with a quality of life comparable to people with cancer. Our Chief Medical Correspondent Doctor Sanjay Gupta joins us now, from Atlanta, with details.
Sanjay, that's pretty stunning.
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: It is. There are a lot of stunning things about this report, John, that we found. We are committed to talking about the obesity epidemic here at CNN and that includes the psychological impact, as well.
Talking specifically about how much of an impact these taunts and teasings have later on in life. It turns out the extent is severe. It's a new study actually looking at four decades of research, psychological research, and medical research, as well. It's a compilation of about 100 different studies trying to figure out what the impact is.
One study of the studies, actually, from 30 or 40 years ago actually showed these pictures, John. For example, a child in a wheelchair, a child who is an amputee, a child with facial disfigurement, and an overweight child. People asked who they would like to be friends with. The overweight child was almost universally picked last in that particular study. They have found those attitudes have continued today.
And the more specific teasing and taunting, whether it's being bullied in some way physically, or whether it's being name called, or excluded from social gatherings seems to have demonstrable concrete effects. Such as things like suicidal thoughts, perhaps, later on, eating disorders, even high blood pressure. And these things can last into adulthood. Even more so, as you get into adulthood, you're more likely to have lower wages, you're more likely to not get jobs as quickly, and more likely to be treated poorly by health care professionals. So, these simple teases and taunts can have some significant impacts.
ROBERTS: How heavy does a kid need to be, Sanjay, to really attract these damaging-type of taunts?
GUPTA: That's interesting. The heaviest kids, the most obese kids, seem to suffer the most damage from this. But even the perception of someone being overweight seemed to have an impact as well. So if someone wasn't truly overweight, but just the perception was they seem chubby, or something like that, they also seem to be subjected to this teasing and taunting.
ROBERTS: Doctor Sanjay Gupta, thanks so much.
Next hour, don't forget, we're going to open up Dr. Gupta's mailbag for your questions about the medical stories that we covered. Go to cnn.com/americanmorning and e-mail Sanjay your question.
CHETRY: I feel like you get teased, as kid, no matter what. Skinny, fat, wrong outfit on, you know, kids are just mean.
ROBERTS: They can be.
CHETRY: Yeah.
ROBERTS: They definitely can be.
CHETRY: Well, paying final respects to Lady Bird Johnson. That tops our "Quick Hits" now. The former first lady died yesterday at her home in Austin, Texas. She was 94 years old. She will lie in repose beginning tomorrow at the LBJ Library, then there will be a private funeral held for her on Saturday.
They say La Nina's back. Scientists expected to announce today that La Nina conditions have officially developed in the Pacific. Forecasters say it's unlikely to effect weather in the United States, during the last few months, but that it can lead to more hurricanes. I'm sure we will get a refresher course from Chad Myers on exactly what La Nina conditions mean.
Also, the White House claimed many times that Al Qaeda is being dismantled, but not according to a report from U.S. intelligence officials, we will talk more about it and more about whether or not Al Qaeda is stronger than they have been in years, coming up next on AMERICAN MORNING.
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CHETRY: In case you have been wondering, where did Michael Richards go? The surprising answer tops "Quick Hits". Turns out the former Seinfeld star has been in Cambodia listening to the teachings of a 29-year-old monk. He said he has quit stand-up comedy and is taking time off after that racially charged outburst that was caught on videotape when he was doing stand up last year.
Nicole Richie's DUI trial has been put off until next month. Police say she admitted to smoking pot and taking pain pills before driving the wrong way on a highway last year. She is facing up to a year in jail.
The man who sued a dry cleaner for $54 million over that missing pair of pants, he just won't give it up. Now he's asking the judge, who tossed his case, to reconsider. Roy Pearson is claiming that the judge committed a, quote, "fundamental legal error." If his motion is rejected, will it end there? Probably not. Because he could take it to the D.C. Court of Appeals.
ROBERTS: Some people just can't take no for an answer.
CHETRY: I guess not.
ROBERTS: A chilling report from U.S. intelligence analysts. They are hinting that Al Qaeda has regrouped and is as strong as it's been in years. How did this happen? What does it mean for the United States? Terrorism Analyst Paul Cruickshank will help us try to answer these questions. He joins us in the studio this morning.
So, this idea that Al Qaeda is at the strongest level since the war on terror began, what does that say about all of these proclamations that the president and administration has been making that we got them on the run, we're capturing them, we're killing them, we're taking away their safe havens, destroying their hide-outs, seems like that's not the case.
PAUL CRUICKSHANK, TERRORISM ANALYST: It seems like that's absolutely not the case. You have to remember that in 2002 Al Qaeda was an organization on the run. Two-thirds of its leadership was captured or killed. There were huge recriminations within the organization toward bin Laden.
The feeling was that they had overstretched for the 9/11 operation. Al Qaeda leaders criticized him for that. That they had lost their training camps in Afghanistan, but there are signs (ph) that Al Qaeda has very much been able to reconstitute themselves.
ROBERTS: How was that possible?
CRUICKSHANK: For three main factors. The first factor is Iraq. Iraq is like Christmas and Ramadan rolled into one for bin Laden. It has allowed the organization to gain a lot more recruits. Now, the last national intelligence estimate called it a cause celeb for jihadists. (INAUDIBLE) CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen, at NYU, suggested there's a seven-fold increase in terrorism after the Iraq war. There's a lot more energy in the jihadist system after the Iraq war.
Now that jihadist energy has to sort of be trained, and where it is trained increasingly is in Pakistan where Al Qaeda reconstituted itself, after the fall of the Taliban. They have lots of training camps there. Training is very, very important for terrorist operations. You can't just normally learn how to make a bomb off the Internet. That's very much exaggerated. There's been a whole stream of British terrorism cases which have shown how important training has been for operatives.
Now the third fact, the last factor, is the Europeans I mentioned. Al Qaeda being able to get a lot of European recruits, which have a sort of visa waiver status, when they enter the United States. There are 400,000 visits by British citizens each year to Pakistan, Al Qaeda's new base. And 4 million visits by British to the United States. Some of those are getting trained in Pakistan, unfortunately, it's a minority, of course.
ROBERTS: There's an old saying, that says that which does not kill me, makes me stronger. The fact that Al Qaeda has been able to survive, regroup and reconstitute itself, given the pressure that it's been under, does that suggest the organization could be stronger than it was prior to September 11th?
CRUICKSHANK: I think there's no doubt about that. Al Qaeda, at the time of 9/11 was a pretty small organization. OK, it had a large sort of advantage in having training camps in Afghanistan, but after 9/11, and after the Iraq war, unfortunately bin Laden's message that the West is at war with Islam has been corroborated for some Muslims around the world. Images, accentuated by Al Qaeda propaganda, in Iraq, and Guantanamo and all these sorts of images, have given him many, many recruits.
And remember bin Laden is only as good as the number of people he can recruit. So there's more energy in the system. With Iraq, remember, they learned how to use all these new techniques, improvised explosive devices, increased use of suicide bombing, training in urban warfare. All these things are very, very important for Al Qaeda's ability to strike in the United States.
Now, is it easy for Al Qaeda to strike in the United States? Absolutely not. The main reason they have not been able to do so is because it's been very, very difficult. The United States is an ocean away from the Middle East and South Asia. It's difficult.
ROBERTS: As we found out on September 11th, oceans don't necessarily protect us anymore. Paul Cruickshank, thanks very much.
CRUICKSHANK: Good to be with you.
ROBERTS: Good to see you here.
A wild ride over a Texas spillway; two people on a jet ski sped past warnings about an impending drop-off, plunged more than 30 feet, landing very hard. They are lucky to be alive. These water accidents are more common than you might think. Greg Hunter looking at some of the big safety concerns. He joins us.
Hey, Greg.
GREG HUNTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, the big safety concern, life preservers: 500 people drowned every year in America on the water. Nine out of 10 don't have one of these. Whether it's low-tech or high-tech, you need to wear it. We'll demonstrate and tell you about it coming up as AMERICAN MORNING continues.
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CHETRY: It's summer time. That means a lot of people love to get out on the water whether it's swimming or even boating. Lately we have seen rescue after rescue taking place on the water. Greg Hunter is looking at some of the dangers and some things you need to be aware of to protect yourself.
He's in a beautiful area. Where did you say you were? A little bit away from the nation's capital?
HUNTER: It's a marina right outside the nation's capital. And Kiran, you know, I'll tell you low-tech or high-tech, 500 reasons why you need to be wearing these on the water.
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HUNTER (voice over): A couple in a Wave Runner crashes after speeding over a Texas dam. They were injured but survived. Authorities are still investigating the crash. The Coast Guard says careless and reckless operators cause most boating accidents and 70 percent of those have had no safety training.
Captain Stu Cohen spent six years in the Coast Guard and teaches boating safety in New York.
(on camera): I say to you, there's no stop signs out here. There's no lane makers, no traffic lights. I don't need any training. What would you say to somebody about that?
CAPT. STU COHEN, BOATING SAFETY INSTRUCTOR: I'd say you're an accident waiting to happen.
HUNTER: Cohen says real-world safety training should be mandatory for all boaters, but rules vary from state to state. And Cohen says no state requires hands on training on a boat. To make matters worse, boaters often don't wear life vests. About 500 people drown a year in accidents, nearly nine out of 10 of them are not wearing flotation devices.
Like NFL player Marquise Hill, who fell off his jet ski in Lake Pontchartrain in May. Alcohol use is a factor in one quarter of all boating accidents. Police say alcohol was to blame in a crash that killed two people in this boat last weekend in Upstate New York.
PETTY OFC. DANA ROCQUE, U.S. COAST GUARD: People have to understand that the effects of alcohol, while you're out on the water, and you're exposed to direct sunlight, will be a lot greater than if you're sitting in your house having a drink.
HUNTER: Also important, every watercraft, even jet skis, can have a powerful wake, and always abide by the speed limits.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are in an area where it's five miles an hour, no wake, and he's causing a wake. He just violated the law. It's like being on a highway, you don't know who's coming at you.
HUNTER: And be aware of currents. These kids got stuck in a rubber boat. Luckily they were rescued.
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HUNTER: The one thing the Coast Guard told me, personally, if you can say one thing, tell people to wear their life preserver. But there's a problem, a lot of people don't want to wear this. It's bulky. It's not a fashion statement. It will save your life, no question.
But if you don't want to wear it you can go high-tech. You can get something like this, it kind of just fits on over your shoulders like this. It's kinda small. When you hit the water, when you actually hit the drake, there's a salt pill in here. Watch this. You hit the drake, you think, oh, I'm in the water, ah! And I'm saved.
Back to you guys in New York.
CHETRY: John and I were just talking about that.
By the way, Greg, he keeps telling me, tell Greg to jump in. Tell Greg to jump in. And I'm not gong to do that to you. I already made you drink the purified water.
HUNTER: You don't drink the water. The water was good.
ROBERTS: He is saying would you trust that? You know, I thought it would be a great idea for a little kid because they hate wearing those, the one that does not implode until you get into the water or it doesn't blow up, rather. Can you trust that?
HUNTER: I would say yes. These things have a power cartridge that looks like this. There's a salt pill in there. When it hits the water it dissolves, it's pink (ph). The cartridge activates this, and it power inflates. I would trust this. This is 200 bucks, so I would trust it.
But you know what, let me tell you something. I would trust this, too. This is like a few bucks. Either way, you need to wear your life preserver.
CHETRY: Yes, right.
HUNTER: Five hundred people a year die, nine out of 10 don't have one of these on. It's an unbelievable statistic.
CHETRY: You're right. No doubt you need one. All right, Greg Hunter, thanks so much.
HUNTER: Thank you.
ROBERTS: A warning for all iPod users, put your devices away when a thunderstorm is coming. Dr. Sanjay Gupta with the iPod shocker -- Sanjay.
GUPTA: Good morning again, John. An amazing story I'm going to share with you. A 37-year-old guy was outside, he was wearing his iPod. What happens when you have a combination of metal, sweat, and electricity? I'll give you a hint. It wasn't good, but he's doing OK. I'll have that full story coming up on AMERICAN MORNING.
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