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Lou Dobbs This Week

New York Licenses; Dangerous Imports; Democrats Rally

Aired November 03, 2007 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LOU DOBBS, CNN HOST: Tonight, Governor Eliot Spitzer of New York defying the will of the citizens of New York. A rising number of lawmakers and top law enforcement officials. The good governor insists on giving driver's licenses to illegal aliens. One of the governor's top officials joins us.
And new outrage over the federal government's failure to protect American consumers from dangerous imports, particularly from communist China. And charges that top government safety officials accepted overseas trips from the very same manufacturers they're supposed to regulate. We'll have all of that and much more straight ahead here tonight.

ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS THIS WEEK, news, debate and opinion for Saturday, November 3. Here now, Lou Dobbs.

DOBBS: Good evening, everybody. Congressional Democrats tonight are on the defensive in their confrontation with the Bush White House. One year after taking control of Congress, Democrats have failed to advance their political agenda. A weakened president is now trying to take political advantage of an even weaker Congress. But voters are unimpressed. They've had a bellyful, apparently, of both the White House and the Congress. Jessica Yellin has our report from Capitol Hill.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was a campaign- style rally for Democrats marking the first anniversary of their return to power.

REP. RAHM EMANUEL, (D) IL: In one short year we've made real progress and won real victories for the American people.

YELLIN: The anniversary comes as Democrat leaders are stymied on almost every issue before them including children's health insurance, wiretap and spending bills. But they offer a ready explanation for the gridlock.

REP. STENY HOYER, (D) MAJORITY LEADER: This do-something, new- direction Congress has been blocked far too often by a do-nothing president and his Republican congressional accomplices.

YELLIN: And today, Senate Leader Harry Reid echoed that message saying of the president, "never have we had anyone so unwilling to negotiate on anything." Americans approval of Congress is at historic lows. Even Speaker Pelosi has suffered. According to a new field poll in her home state of California, her approval rating has fallen 13 percent since March. But Democrats insist polls show they are doing much better than their Republican counterparts.

REP. NANCY PELOSI, (D) HOUSE SPEAKER: Which party can bring need change? Forty eight percent Democratic, 26 percent Republican.

YELLIN: Republicans maintain these internal fights hurt both parties.

REP. JOHN BOEHNER, (R) MINORITY LEADER: At the end of the day, if the American people see us working together, Democrats and Republicans, on their behalf, all of our numbers will go up.

YELLIN: But right now there's not a whole lot of working together on Capitol Hill. And blaming Republicans for the deadlock could actually being a winning strategy for the Democrats.

STU ROTHENBERG, ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT: I think that's probably going to be a pretty good message come next fall because voters are giving Democrats a bit more benefit of the doubt than they are the Republicans. They really do see Republicans as standing in the way of a lot of change.

YELLIN (on camera): Even as they celebrate this anniversary, Democrats are already looking ahead to next year's election. Party strategists say Americans now realize Democrats need a larger majority to get things done in Congress, and they plan to use that as an argument to elect more Democrats in 2008. Jessice Yellin, CNN, Capitol Hill.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: President Bush taking an increasingly aggressive approach with this Congress. President Bush demanding that the Senate vote to confirm his nominee for attorney general Judge Michael Mukasey. In fact, the president using his veto to block what he regards as excessive spending bills and this from a president who didn't veto a single spending bill when the Republicans were in control of the Congress. Elaine Quijano traveling with the president in South Carolina has our report. Elaine?

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, the president launched yet another salvo in his ongoing battles with the Democratic-led congress by vetoing a $23 billion water projects bill that has broad bipartisan support.

The president's move is part of his effort to re-establish the GOP's credentials among fiscal conservatives but Congress could override his veto in the coming week. The president is also doing battle on another front, facing a tough fight over his nominee for attorney general, Michael Mukasey.

Friday, the president made yet another attempt to pressure Democrats into pushing through Mukasey's nomination. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, U.S. PRESIDENT: He's a good man. He's a fair man. He's an independent man, and he's plenty qualified to be the attorney general. And I strongly urge the United States Senate to confirm this man so that I can have an attorney general to work with to protect the United States of America from further attack.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUIJANO: Democratic senators on the Judiciary Committee, including the chairman, Senator Patrick Leahy, are not happy about Mukasey's refusal to say whether he believes waterboarding amounts to torture and is illegal. Senator Leahy says he plans to vote against confirmation for Mukasey. His committee is set to take up this issue on Tuesday.

Lou?

DOBBS: Elaine Quijano reporting.

New concerns tonight about our military's dependence on private security contractors, both in Iraq and Afghanistan. An Army brigadier general this week was wounded in an attack on a U.S. military convoy in Baghdad.

Now that convoy wasn't protected by U.S. Army or the U.S. Marines, but rather protected by British private security guards. I have been complaining about the Army's use of private contractors now for months. This time the military is, obviously going beyond the pale. Jamie McIntyre reports from the Pentagon.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The Pentagon employs some 7,000 private contractors to provide security for both civilians and military personnel operating in Iraq and Afghanistan, including some senior officers, such as Brigadier General Jeffrey Dorko, wounded in an IED attack on his armored SUV Monday in Baghdad.

GEOFF MORRELL, PENTAGON SPOKESPERSON: We simply do not have the resources to do everything that perhaps we would like to do. And so you have to make choices about where they can best be used.

MCINTYRE: Most American generals are protected by their own troops, but some, like General Dorko, who is with the Army Corps of Engineers, have no combat forces under their command and rely on private hired guns.

A spokesman for the U.S. military in Iraq told CNN: "The private security companies better meet the travel needs of many of our general officers. This allows combat troops to perform other, more critical duties."

At a congressional oversight hearing this month, the problem was clear.

REP. HENRY WAXMAN (D-CA), GOVERNMENT REFORM COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN: Well, at some point, you have to make a decision in this battlefield and this war. If we don't have enough troops to do the job, then we should get more troops.

MCINTYRE: But training troops to fight wars is not the same as training them to be bodyguards.

REP. TOM DAVIS (R), VIRGINIA: Now, if we want to train them to do that, we can do that, but that hasn't been the history throughout the last 50 years of the military that I am aware of.

MCINTYRE: It could be done, but at considerable cost, says author Robert Young Pelton, whose book "Licensed to Kill" argues the U.S. is over-reliant on contractors.

ROBERT YOUNG PELTON, AUTHOR, "LICENSED TO KILL": And the question is, do we want to create this huge behemoth of sort of state- mandated military police or State Department security? And that's a question that taxpayers should decide on, but necessarily -- hasn't actually been presented to us.

MCINTYRE (on camera): The biggest problem with using private security contractors is they're expensive and harder to hold accountable if things go wrong.

Today, the Pentagon announced a preliminary agreement with the State Department to put more controls over contractors, putting the movement of contractors in Iraq completely under control of the U.S. military and standardizing the rules for the use of force and training of procedures. Jamie McIntyre, CNN, the Pentagon.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Still ahead, our consumer safety system, if there is such a thing, is utterly broken. The federal government refuses to fix it. Christine Romans will have our report. Christine?

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Another week of toy recalls, Lou, and Democrats want to recall the woman who runs the government product safety agency. They say she just doesn't understand how serious this crisis is, Lou.

DOBBS: Christine, as you've been reporting, I hope after we take a more in-depth look at this we find that's because she doesn't understand it, rather than the fact that she plain doesn't care.

Also tonight disturbing new evidence that the government is failing to protect American consumers from dangerous drug imports as well from communist China.

And Governor Eliot Spitzer refusing to back down in his effort to give illegal aliens driver's licenses despite the objections of just about anyone with any sense of all. Just how important will the issue of illegal immigration be in the presidential election campaign? I'll be joined by three of the best political minds in the nation. Stay with us. We're coming right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The Consumer Product Safety Commission can't protect American consumers from unsafe products imported from abroad, and its officials are certainly enjoying travel at the expense of those they're supposed to be regulating.

Consumer Products Safety Commission acting chairman Nancy Nord and her predecessor, Hal Stratton, took almost 30 trips, paid for by the industries they regulate. Those trips are documented in agency records obtained by "The Washington Post".

In one of the more outrageous junkets, an 11-day trip to China paid for by an industry trade group. Several trips were paid for by attorneys representing manufacturers and private liability lawsuits and incredibly, the agency defended its travel.

A spokeswoman saying those trips are a way for agency officials to be in contact with the manufacturers they regulate. Washington is filled with that kind of idiocy.

Congressional Democrats are now calling for Nord's resignation. Nord earlier this week arguing against a Senate proposal that would raise fines for companies that produce defective toys and jeopardize the health and well-being of American consumers and provide for criminal penalties for company officials. Congress is trying to rebuild the agency.

And, as Christine Romans now reports, there will be a major political battle over what happens and the agency's future.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROMANS (voice-over): Democrats say they have lost faith in the head of the Consumer Product Safety Commission and called for her resignation.

PELOSI: Is it too much to expect the government to live up to its responsibility to protect our children?

ROMANS: The acting chairwoman of the CPSC, Nancy Nord, said she has no plans to resign. She's been a commissioner for two-and-a-half years.

The White House accused Democrats of politicizing consumer safety. But Democrats and some consumer advocates say the agency is simply broken.

SEN. MARK PRYOR (D), ARKANSAS: I do feel like the Consumer Product Safety Commission is resisting the efforts for us to revamp the agency and to provide more safety in the marketplace. We are in almost a crisis mode here with the record number of recalls that we're seeing in this country.

ROMANS: His Senate bill would increase funding for the agency by almost $142 million over the next seven years and raise fines companies face for dangerous products from only $1.8 million today to $100 million.

But in letters to key senators, Nord recommended a smaller penalty cap of $10 million -- quote -- I do not believe there is a need for this level of penalty cap."

She also argued against criminal penalties for company officials, which -- quote -- "could expose otherwise law-abiding individuals to large fines and incarceration."

NANCY NORD, ACTING CHAIRWOMAN, CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION: If the Congress gives me more resources, I would welcome those resources. But I want to make sure that the resources we have, that the people we hire are the right resources, the right people.

ROMANS: Her staff today is half what it was in 1980. There is only one full-time toy tester.

SEN. SHERROD BROWN (D), OHIO: The White House continues to slash the budget of the Consumer Product Safety Commission and the toy companies continue to get their way.

ROMANS: Nord says product safety is everyone's goal, but her job is to make sure any new legislation is -- quote -- "practical and enforceable."

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROMANS (on camera): The Senate Commerce committee passed its overhaul of the agency, it would ban the direct use of lead in all children's products from lunch boxes to toys, increase the number of CPSC commissioners to five from three currently and it would protect whistleblowers. But some of those senators are now seating at those reports that the agency's top honchos were traveling on the dime of the very people they're supposed to regulate, Lou.

DOBBS: Well, the American people ought to be seething. Senator Mark Pryor, Senator Sherrod Brown trying to get to the bottom of whatever in the world is happening here. It's just mind boggling that this is going on in 21st century America with the federal government is largest than it's ever been.

Thank you very much.

ROMANS: You're welcome.

DOBBS: Christine Romans.

Disturbing testimony in Washington this week. It usually is disturbing of late. Former FDA employees testifying their agency simply doesn't have enough resources to protect American consumers from those dangerous drug imports. This year the United States will expect fewer than two percent of all the drug facilities in communist China that are manufacturing products for export to this country. As Lisa Sylvester reports now the FDA isn't even sure how many foreign drug facilities plants that it has in fact inspected. Your government at work. It's a lovely thing.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER (voice-over): It was a sugarless cough medicine. It took the lives of more than 100 people in Panama last year. Glycerin is a key ingredient of this medicine. But, in this case, a poison called diethylene glycol was substituted for glycerin imported from China.

During a congressional hearing, a former FDA insider testified the same thing could happen here.

CARL NIELSEN, FORMER DIRECTOR, FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION: FDA knows very little about the actual condition of manufacture of most imported drugs. And that should be found totally unacceptable in a professed risk-based approach.

SYLVESTER: Eighty percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients in U.S. drugs come from abroad, primarily India and China. Yet, the FDA inspects only about 7 percent of the known foreign drug importers a year, according to the Government Accountability Office.

And the agency doesn't even have an accurate count of how many foreign firms are shipping drugs to the United States. Another former FDA employee who worked at the agency for 30 years testified, commissioners have not had the resources for adequate testing of food and drug imports.

WILLIAM HUBBARD, COALITION FOR A STRONGER FDA: And all of them were forced to play this public health version of the kids game Whack- A- Mole, in which they were forced to ship resources to whatever the squeakiest wheel was of the day and try to fix that. And the result was that nothing ever seemed to get fixed.

SYLVESTER: The FDA says it has begun updating its databases and is considering posting inspectors in foreign countries.

ANDREW VON ESCHENBACH, FDA COMMISSIONER: We have been and are the world's gold standard, and we intend to continue to maintain that standard of excellence. But it will require change.

SYLVESTER: The problem is not new. The GAO issued a critical report outlining similar problems in 1998. Congress held hearings in 2000. But the same problems persist, with potential for toxic medicines ending up in American medicine cabinets.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SYLVESTER (on camera): Domestic firms are required to be inspected every two years, but there is no comparable law for foreign inspections. Domestic inspections are unannounced. That's not the case with foreign inspections. And finally, language has been a barrier with FDA inspectors having to rely on company representatives for translation instead of using independent translators. Lou?

DOBBS: Lisa, thank you.

Lisa Sylvester reporting from Washington. Coming up next here, opposition to Governor Spitzer's plan to give away New York drivers' licenses to illegal aliens is really mounting. We'll here what the mayor of New York City has to say about the good governor's plan. And Oklahoma takes action on illegal immigration and we'll have a special report on the toughest state crackdown on the impact of illegal immigration in the nation. Stay with us. We're coming right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: The federal courts this week up held Oklahoma's tough new law cracking down on illegal immigration. The Oklahoma law went into effect on the 1st of November after a federal judge dismissed a second last-minute lawsuit trying to block its enforcement.

As Casey Wian now reports, this is a clear-cut victory for Oklahoma in its fight against illegal immigration and for border security. Other states may soon follow.

BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's a new era in Oklahoma. State law now makes it clear illegal aliens are no longer welcome, that after a federal judge denied a second motion to block the law by advocates of expanded illegal alien rights.

RANDY TERRILL (R), OKLAHOMA STATE REPRESENTATIVE: I couldn't be more pleased. The reason why I say that is because it is a great day for the citizens and taxpayers of Oklahoma.

WIAN: The law prohibits illegal aliens from receiving driver's licenses or state welfare benefits. State contractors are prohibited from employing illegal aliens. Private businesses must not terminate a citizen or legal resident while continuing to employ an illegal alien in a similar job.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Nobody is going to be working in here. Everything is going to be looking empty, like a ghost town. And I don't think it is going to be right. It's made me very sad on my heart.

WIAN: It is also now a crime in Oklahoma to transport or harbor illegal aliens. The only exception is where there is a conflict with federal law, such as transportation for medical care or school.

REVEREND MIGUEL RIVERA, NATIONAL COALITION OF LATINO CLERGY: You are guilty of ethnic cleansing in this community. You are going against my community. That's my people, my Latino friends and family, who aren't afraid of your words, who aren't afraid of your actions.

WIAN: Police officials say the fear is unwarranted because they will only check the immigration status of suspects arrested for violent crimes. RON PALMER, TULSA POLICE CHIEF: If we are doing a violent crime of arresting a suspect and then we find during the booking of that person that they are in violation of their status, certainly we are going to assist with that. But the roundups and going out and checking papers and what have you, we aren't going to be involved in that.

WIAN: Reverend Rivera claims 25,000 or more Latinos have already fled Oklahoma because of the new laws, some leaving the country entirely.

If true, it is just what many illegal immigration opponents have predicted. Once state and local governments begin cracking down, illegal aliens will return to their home countries on their own.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WIAN (on camera): Legal hurdles remain. Another court hearing on the constitutionality of Oklahoma's law is scheduled next week. And opponents say they will fight all the way to the Supreme Court, if necessary. Meanwhile, supporters say they hope the Oklahoma crackdown will become a model for other states. Lou?

DOBBS: Casey, thank you.

Casey Wian reporting.

Coming up next here, Senator Hillary Clinton's troubles. Will the Democratic frontrunner recover from her debate fumble?

And Iran's threat. How communist China is circumventing U.S. sanctions that punish Iran for its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

And I'll be talking with one of the architects of New York Governor Spitzer's back room deal to give away driver's licenses to illegal aliens.

And a program reminder, beginning Monday, LOU DOBBS TONIGHT starts at 7:00 Eastern and 4:00 p.m. Pacific on Weekdays. Please join us Monday through Friday, 7:00 Eastern, 4:00 Pacific, right here on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL RBEAK)

DOBBS: New concerns tonight over New York Governor Spitzer's outrageous proposal to give away driver's licenses to illegal aliens. Critics and opponents of the plan say it would give the illegal aliens the ability to legally buy guns, among other things, and lead to massive voter fraud as well.

New York State sheriffs overwhelmingly voted to oppose the governor on this plan. The Republican minority leader in the New York state assembly has already filed a lawsuit to stop the governor's proposal. In an interview on CNN's SITUATION ROOM, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, again, expressed his opposition to the governor's ill- conceived plan.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: Am I hearing you right that you tend to agree more with Lou Dobbs than Eliot Spitzer?

MAYOR MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, NEW YORK CITY: Lou is an old friend of mine who I agree with very seldom, but nevertheless in this case, Lou happens to be right.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff also clearly saying illegal aliens shouldn't be granted driver's licenses of any kind by any state.

But the Department of Homeland Security secretary still worked out that deal with Governor Spitzer, one that would reward illegal aliens with driver's licenses. Secretary Chertoff said he had to agree to the deal because he has no authority to stop states from issuing those licenses.

Spitzer deputy secretary for public safety, Michael Balboni, who oversees all New York State law enforcement agencies, worked out that deal with Chertoff.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAEL BALBONI, NEW YORK DEPUTY SECRETARY FOR PUBLIC SAFETY: I was intimately involved with all of the aspects of that negotiation. And what Secretary Chertoff said specifically was he does not approve of giving illegal immigrants driver's licenses. And that is really from an immigration perspective, not a security perspective. Because think it through. How can ...

DOBBS: I'm sorry, say that again.

BALBONI: How can ...

DOBBS: Say that again.

BALBONI: That is from an immigration perspective. I mean how could the man whose job it is...

DOBBS: All right.

Can you separate all of these perspectives for me?

I mean did he or did he not say he does not approve giving driver's licenses to illegal aliens?

BALBONI: He absolutely did. And in discussions with him, I'll tell you what he was thinking.

DOBBS: Ha!

BALBONI: And you can check back with him on this, but ...

DOBBS: Well, you know...

BALBONI: What he basically said was -- well, let me just -- it's immigration.

DOBBS: Well, I'm...

BALBONI: And that's the truth. With security ....

DOBBS: I'm going to have to -- really, I'm going to really have to constrain you on that one, if I may, Mr. Balboni, because if you can divine what he's thinking, you're doing something that's really remarkably superhuman.

BALBONI: Well, only based upon conversations ...

DOBBS: I would prefer that we deal with the record.

I'm sorry?

BALBONI: But only based upon conversations I had with him for over -- almost, you know, a three day period.

DOBBS: Well, how about you tell me -- please. Please.

BALBONI: Essentially, what it is, when you combine the passport, you combine the digital photograph, you combine the photo imaging technology and the document verification technology, you have a residency requirement. And then you make sure that you do not give a license to anyone who is undocumented that doesn't say "not valid for federal purposes" or for anyone in the state license system. That's how you make it secure. And it's more secure than any of the other states are doing ...

DOBBS: You're not going to the issue of the thinking of the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security or...

BALBONI: That's why he ...

DOBBS: ...or the fact that there is a direct...

BALBONI: That's why he was standing...

DOBBS: Excuse me, sir. Or the fact that there is a direct ...

BALBONI: Sure. Fine.

DOBBS: ... contradiction between what your boss said and what the Department of Homeland Security secretary said. That has nothing to do with it.

BALBONI: Well, -- well, the whole purpose of them standing together was to show that this was really important for national security.

DOBBS: Yes. Yes. OK. I couldn't ...

BALBONI: But you've got to look at the immigration side of it.

DOBBS: OK. Well, the fact that you don't agree is wonderful that your, you know, that Prince Eliot doesn't agree with King George. But the fact is, we have laws on the books here. They're not being enforced by the federal government and there is a requirement on the books and New York State law that a Social Security number has to be on that driver's license.

BALBONI: Actually, that's -- OK, that, again, is the -- a disagreement on what the law says. The law that I voted for said if you have a Social Security number, get it so that you can go after a deadbeat dad.

DOBBS: All right ...

BALBONI: It did not say in order to get a driver's license, show a Social Security number.

But let me ask you, why is a Social Security number so important?

DOBBS: Well, because it's the only ...

BALBONI: Why is that the big thing?

DOBBS: Here's one of the reasons, amongst others.

BALBONI: OK.

DOBBS: Social Security is the backbone -- a Social Security number is the backbone right now of determining validity of citizenship in the country. Is it the reason that it is being used by the -- by the Department of Homeland Security in its pilot program, which you know is used by employers to validate the legality of a person in the United States. It is also the only way to cross index between the Department of Internal Revenue Service, Social Security, to that end. And it is the only basis by which there could be a readily expedient, efficient way for election boards to crosscheck the lists to determine whether or not their voter roles were made up of people in this country lawfully and on those voter registration rolls lawfully.

That would be the answer I would give you.

BALBONI: Mr. Dobbs, its utility does not have to do anything with its security. In 2003, there is a report I can send you from the Pataki administration that talked about thousands of New Yorkers having multiple Social Security numbers.

DOBBS: Well, maybe I could direct you to the 9/11 Commission...

BALBONI: In fact, one number was held by 57 people.

DOBBS: Well, we both read the 9/11 Commission recommendations and I think you would find that instructive, as well, to the issue.

BALBONI: Well, now and let's talk about that.

Did the 9/11 recommendations talk about...

DOBBS: No. Let's talk about this...

BALBONI: The Real I.D. Act?

DOBBS: Why in the world does the governor want to take what is a two- tiered system that was working perfectly well -- New York's license perfectly -- considered perfectly secure, as anything can be perfectly secure at this point -- with a two-tiered license in which you can have a temporary date on that license?

Why would that be necessary to change for either purposes of security or immigration?

BALBONI: Well, I'm not sure what you're referring to in terms of a two-tier license right now in New York we have a one-tier. But the adoption of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative and Real I.D. and then the state license, we'd now have three different license options for people.

DOBBS: No, I understand. I understand...

BALBONI: And, again ...

DOBBS: I understand that -- I understand what the governor came up with this weekend to try to cover what is a complete reversal of what is a huge mess that he's created, which you are going to have the fun of picking up and cleaning up after. I don't think it's going to happen readily. The second part of that, I'm referring to the license before he -- it's not an executive order, but before the governor directed this change back five weeks ago.

BALBONI: Well, as you know, we took a look at it from one end to the other. And we decided that there was a way to make it more secure and more inclusive, because then it gets to the whole issue ...

DOBBS: All right. More inclusive?

Why is it necessary...

BALBONI: ...what do we think the population...

DOBBS: Wait a minute. Wait a minute.

More inclusive of whom? It's for New York citizens.

BALBONI: Of this population. Almost a million -- hang on a second. It's a million people. That's the estimate of people in New York ...

DOBBS: A million people?

BALBONI: ...who are undocumented.

DOBBS: A million?

BALBONI: A million people.

DOBBS: A million illegal aliens?

BALBONI: So, here's the thing... DOBBS: How do you know that?

BALBONI: That is the estimate. And better -- and, as you know better than anybody else, because you've been fighting this issue for so many years ...

DOBBS: Yes.

BALBONI: ... that it's a much, much greater across the nation. And so they're here.

What do you think, if we don't give them this driver's license, they're all going to go home?

DOBBS: I mean what do you think, that you could ...

BALBONI: I mean they've been here for a very long time.

DOBBS: What do you think, that if you give them a driver's license that that isn't de facto citizenship?

Is it one of the most arrogant ...

BALBONI: That's not.

DOBBS: ... arrogant decisions taken by a state government ...

BALBONI: Mr. Dobbs ...

DOBBS: ...a federal -- the -- I mean it's just mind boggling.

I appreciate your defending your governor ...

BALBONI: We are, with the New York State Senate.

DOBBS: Just after you got reminded of the fact that you're public servants and not Prince and the Duke.

BALBONI: Well, remember, this doesn't take place tomorrow, by the way, Mr. Dobbs. It doesn't take place tomorrow. There's plenty of time to work ...

DOBBS: No, it doesn't. It sure doesn't.

My guess is, I'll make you -- I'll make you this bet. I think the people in New York have had a belly full of this kind of arrogant government and I think you're going to find that it doesn't take place, period. That would be my bet.

BALBONI: Well, you know what?

DOBBS: I bet the people prevail on this.

BALBONI: Well, we'll see how this works out.

DOBBS: Well, you and your elitist ... BALBONI: OK.

DOBBS: ... boss, I've got a -- I've got a feeling you're going to get a real advisory from the people, one that you can read as either an executive order from the folks or as just simply majority will.

Thanks a lot.

BALBONI: Thank you.

DOBBS: You're a good man to be here.

BALBONI: Thank you very much.

DOBBS: You're a good example for your boss.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Up next, Democratic presidential candidates turn on their front-runner, Senator Hillary Clinton trying to have it both ways and not succeeding.

Iran's threat, why sanctions imposed by the United States probably won't stop Iran's regime from trying to manufacture a nuclear weapon.

We're coming right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Record-high crude oil prices may help Iran withstand new U.S. economic sanctions. Professor Fouad Ajami is one of the world's leading authorities on Middle East and Islam. He's professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University and author of the very important book "The Foreigner's Gift."

Professor Ajami doesn't believe these new sanctions will work.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FOUAD AJAMI, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR: We've had sanctions against Iran, like you said, for 20 years now. These sanctions have been in place. And the behavior of the Iranian regime has not changed. And you said it at the top. When you have $93 a barrel of oil, here is the second most important producer, Iran, in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. They have lots of money. They have lots of running room. They have lots of customers for their oil. And I don't think these sanctions will bite.

One thing about these sanctions, Lou -- and that's the fundamental question -- are they a prelude to war or are they a substitute for war?

That's really the question of the hour.

DOBBS: You are ...

AJAMI: And ...

DOBBS: ... you are possessed of the greatest insight I know in the Middle East.

AJAMI: Thank you.

DOBBS: Which is it?

AJAMI: I think they are a substitute for war. This is the way that the Bush administration ...

DOBBS: May you be right.

AJAMI: May I be right. And I think we'll see. You know, you've -- I've been a repeated visitor to your show. I have come back and ...

DOBBS: I hope you always will.

AJAMI: ...well, I think -- I think they are a substitute for war. I think the Bush administration doesn't have the political cover. It doesn't have the time. It doesn't have the consensus at home and the consensus abroad for a war against Iran.

One thing that Admiral Michael Mullen, our chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said is that we are already at war in two Muslim countries, meaning Iraq and Afghanistan.

DOBBS: Yes.

AJAMI: We can't add a third.

DOBBS: A remarkable word of caution coming from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Some people thinking going, perhaps, too, far, but, nonetheless, offering an assessment that most people, at least, believe to be candid and honest.

President Bush said the world needs to stop Iran.

AJAMI: Yes.

DOBBS: Let's listen to what the head of the I -- the International Atomic Energy Agency, Dr. Mohamed El-Baradei, had to say.

MOHAMED EL-BARADEI, IAEA DIRECTOR GENERAL: There's clearly a question of distrust between Iran and most of the international community -- at least the West, the U.S. in particular. And to build confidence -- you will not be able to do that through just exchanging rhetoric. You need to go and create the conditions to go to the negotiating table.

My fear, that if we continue to escalate from both sides, that we will end up into oppressiveness. We will end up into an abyss.

DOBBS: You were talking about a substitute for war. And, obviously, El-Baradei is thinking back to 2003 ...

AJAMI: Yes. DOBBS: ... in which there was an overstatement on the part of this government.

AJAMI: Yes.

DOBBS: Your thoughts.

AJAMI: If you liked Boutros Boutros-Ghali of the United Nations before and Kofi Annan, you'll love Mohamed El-Baradei. This is a congenital anti-American man. And he was -- he still has his job because, at the end, at the crucial moment, the Bush administration blinked. They want him out of there.

This man has not been terribly reliable. This man hasn't really read Iran very well. So I wouldn't want to use him as a witness.

DOBBS: But he read Iraq very well and he declared there were no weapons of mass destruction. Indeed, for whatever reason you may argue, he was proved -- or not proved -- wrong, but, others would argue proved right.

AJAMI: Yes. I grant you this -- because, in fact, you're right. I mean that's why the ghost of Iraq stalks this encounter with Iran and the Iranians. I mean let's look at the basics. This Iranian revolution is now three decades old, practically. And it's always managed to go to the brink and then step back. We're not ready to take them on. We're not ready to fight them. And I think this is the question -- the -- Iran's nuclear ambitions and Iran's power are a question for the next president and the next administration.

DOBBS: You think we have that long, at least?

AJAMI: We have that long. I think -- I think that ...

DOBBS: What is not clear how long we have on the issue of Turkey and the Kurds. And with 60,000 troops massed on that border, with bombing already taking place in Northern Iraq, so the Turkish aircraft -- what is the prospect?

AJAMI: I'm not a big fan of the Turkish position. And I was with you a while ago and we went into that. I think the problem of Turkey with the Kurds is not in Iraqi Kurdistan. It's not in Northern Iraq. The problem is in Turkey itself. The problem is for Turkish nationalism to accept Kurdish nationalism and to accept a kind of multiethnic society within Turkey.

DOBBS: Just a little thing to do for a nation ...

AJAMI: And it -- that's right.

DOBBS: ...that is no longer easily described as led by a secular government.

AJAMI: Very -- it's very difficult. The Turks have -- both under secular governments and under this new Islam government -- they have a problem accepting the multiplicity of Turkey. And they have a problem understanding that it's not about Iraqi Kurdistan, it's about Turkey itself.

DOBBS: Professor Fouad Ajami, thank you for being here.

AJAMI: Thank you very much, Lou.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DOBBS: Up next, Senator Clinton standing by Governor Spitzer's plan to give away those drivers' licenses to illegal aliens, we think. But will it cost her the Democratic nomination for president? Three of the best political minds in the country weigh in on that and many others. Here next. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: Joining me now, three of the best political minds in the country. From our Washington, DC bureah, Tom DeFrank, Washington bureau chief for the "New York Daily News" and also author of the new book "Write It When I'm Gone, the Remarkable Off the Record Conversations with Gerald Ford."

Good to have you with us. And in Washington, DC, Diana West, columnist, "Washington Times," author of the book "The Death of the Grownup".

Here in New York, Democratic strategist. Hank Sheinkopf. Good to have you all with us.

Hank, let me start with you. Senator Hillary Clinton is in a heck of a mess because she didn't answer a simple straightforward question simply and straightforwardly.

HANK SHEINKOPF, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I think that's part of it. Also, she's the front-runner and when you're the front-runner you are subject to attack by those who are trying to catch up to you, they're going to trip her up at every part of the way. But she has to answer questions. This is also a test of whether common strategy in campaigns really works, i.e., avoid the controversial if you can, go back to the poll. We're going to see if it works or not.

DOBBS: Sure as heck didn't work on this one. This one, instead of being about a horse race or about pabulum or wedge issues, I mean, it straightforwardly, it is about illegal immigration and public policy. Response, Diana West?

DIANA WEST, "WASHINGTON TIMES": Yeah, I don't think this was an attack on Hillary, this was more of a revelation about what kind of candidate, what kind of executive she would really make. I think actually, I really think she sunk herself with this. I don't think in this day and age with our understanding of the immigration issue that someone who does not uphold the law and support the integrity of American citizenship is going to get national office, the highest office.

DOBBS: Tom? TOM DEFRANK, "NEW YORK DAILY NEWS": Lou, I think the real problem with Senator Clinton's performance the other night was not so much her position or lack of a position on immigration, but because, more that she didn't have one. She waffled. Reminded me of one of my favorite Gerry Ford quotes. He once said of Jimmy Carter, "He waffles, he wanders, he waivers." That's what she was doing. This was the first debate where she didn't do well, where she looked slick, dare I say it? Slick and parsing her words. And for those who don't want to have a reminder of the previous eight Clinton years, she gave everybody one.

And it's a psychic problem more than a substantive problem but I agree that it's a serious problem for her.

DOBBS: Damage control already under way by the Clinton campaign. Let's take a look at the new ad they have just put out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Senator Clinton.

JOHN EDWARDS, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Senator Clinton.

Senator Clinton.

SEN. JOE BIDEN, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Hillary Clinton.

EDWARDS: Senator Clinton.

SEN. CHRIS DODD, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Senator Clinton.

EDWARDS: Senator Clinton.

Senator Clinton.

OBAMA: Hillary.

BIDEN: The first lady and now Senator Clinton.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I seem to be the topic of great conversation and consternation, and that's for a reason.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DOBBS: What's the reason?

SHEINKOPF: That's left up to the voters. Part of this -- OK? This is survey research in action. The fastest way to get the problem gone is to send it someplace else.

WEST: Deflection.

SHEINKOPF: That's a way for her not to take a definitive stand, but to throw it someplace else.

DOBBS: Are the American people so stupid that we're going to either succumb to attack ads or deflection ads, such as this one, Diana West?

WEST: I hope not. I mean, that's really quite shocking to me. I hadn't seen that before. That's not the way you handle this issue, to try to make it something else or try to make it into a sitcom promo. That's really beneath this race.

DOBBS: Tom, your thoughts?

DEFRANK: Well, Lou, every politician wants to have it both ways, and certainly Senator Clinton wants to have it both ways here but I don't think she can have it both ways. You can't say I'm rough, I'm tough, I'm big league material, I can run the country, I can represent us around the world, I'm your girl, as she said more than once, and then say that these mean old men are picking on me. I don't think it works.

WEST: Yes. That's absolutely right, this notion that she's introducing her girlness in this race is such a copout. You think of some really strong female leaders in history, Margaret Thatcher ...

DOBBS: A bunch of guys trying to introduce their guyness, if you will. Trying to man up. Senator Barack Obama for crying out loud looks like a man taking testosterone shots. You have George W. Bush for two terms. Suddenly i thought he was a character out of "Bonanza".

WEST: That's true.

DOBBS: She is not the first, nor of any of these candidates, the first to try to, if you will, man up, tough up or whatever you want to call it.

SHEINKOPF: They gave her the option. I'm not here to talk policy. I will talk politics because that's what I know. They gave her that opportunity. She used it on this spot. The question is, folks in Iowa, particularly men in Iowa, getting laid off, losing jobs. People in that region of the country will decide the outcome of the president election in November 2008. What do they think about it? That's what I'm interested and what the poll numbers.

That's a different issue.

DOBBS: We're going to come back to those poll numbers. We're going to come back to the substantive issues. By the way, I think this whole flap, this political flap, if you will, this campaign flap, is resting on a very central issue, a critically important issue, one that is far more important to the voters than it has been to the campaigns of any candidates, either Republican or Democrat, all of whom, as you suggested at the outset, would just assume we all ignore. We're not going to do that. We're going to come right back with our political panel in one moment.

Standby campaigns, because you ain't going to like what's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) DOBBS: We're back now with our panel, Tom DeFrank, Diana West and Hank Sheinkopf.

Diana, let me start with you. These candidates are trying to play safe. Their campaigns are trying to tip toe through the political tulips to a position. Are they going to get away with it because the issues that are most critical in every survey in the country is this economy, this war and illegal immigration and border security and port security.

DEFRANK: I think immigration is going to end up being a bigger issue than a lot of Democratic candidates and Republican candidates wish it were. I mean, I just think there is -- I don't want to call it a sleeper vote out there, because everybody understands about this, but I think the intensity of feelings on this issue, I think the intensity is even greater than all the campaigns would like it to be. And I think before it's all over, it's going to be a far more serious issue than other than just states like Arizona and Texas.

DOBBS: All the Democrats, with the exception of Senator Chris Dodd, running from this issue, playing into this socioethnocentric pandering over the course of this last two years. Is this going to implode for the Democrats?

SHEINKOPF: It's not going to work the way it used to because everything that people see in a primary election, they also think about in a general election. It's the same imagery they'll see again and again and again. And by the way, we said on this program the other night that immigration is without question the third rail of this particular 2008 - excuse me -- you touch it, you get near it, you get burned. You got to say something. And you might as well switch the argument to economics because immigration, as you define it, is an economic argument to the target that's going to vote and decide this election.

DOBBS: It's an economic issue, it's a national security issue. And I don't see how one can look at it any other way. But again, that's what makes politics interesting. People find all sorts of ways to either look at or look away from an issue. The Republicans, Diana West, not showering themselves with glory.

WEST: Yeah.

DOBBS: It's hard to discern what is a front-runner amongst the Republicans and what in the world he stands for.

WEST: Well, I think that's true. I think one thing, for what it's worth, I think Fred Thompson has tried to carve out the immigration issue a little bit with his declaration about cutting off funds, federal funds to sanctuary cities. I think that that is a step in the right direction.

DOBBS: I couldn't agree more.

WEST: I think what these candidates do not understand is that maybe for the first time in our history, there is a clarity abroad in the land among people very much due to the efforts of your show, Lou, and some other politicians, who might include Tom Tancredo among them, who have actually gotten people to focus on this issue and become educated in a way I can't imagine the electorate feeling, for example, even as recently as 2004 there was an understanding of the issue that the candidates are not really tapping into and they're going to be surprised.

DOBBS: Tom?

DEFRANK: I couldn't agree more. As I said, I think it's not a hidden issue, it's not a sleeper issue, but it's a far more potent and potentially lethal issue for all candidates than many of them wish were the case. I think it's going to be a real problem for people who want to be president.

DOBBS: Is it going to be a bigger problem for Republicans or Democrats?

WEST: Democrats, I think. I'm sorry.

DEGRANK: No, I think for Democrats. I agree with Diana. I think democrats have got a bigger problem. They've taken the Hispanic vote for granted. I think the Democrats have a bigger problem.

SHEINKOPF: As the layoffs continue, as people start losing jobs, layoffs announced this week, very serious, people will think about illegal immigration more often than not in the states that you have to win to become the president and the Democrats, and Tom and Diana are both right, have the most exposure on the argument.

DOBBS: And would it be wonderful, as well, if these candidates starting talking honestly about the failure of this country now to provide a terrific public education to all Americans, provide opportunity, equal opportunity in education and economics to all Americans and look to the issues that we've got to confront in this new century, whether it be the war on radical Islamist terrorism or increasingly scarce resources and a budget that cannot continue to be run at the deficits we've witnessed over the last half decade.

I want to thank you all. Tom DeFrank, thank you very much, Diana West, Hank Sheinkopf, thank you for being with us. Join us here tomorrow.

And join us for LOU DOBBS TONIGHT Monday through Friday at our new time, 7:00 p.m. Eastern, that begins Monday, November 5, 7:00 p.m. Eastern right here on CNN. LOU DOBBS THIS WEEK still seen at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday and Sunday, for some reason. I don't know what the difference is, they'll tell us. Enjoy your weekend.

Good night from New York. THIS WEEK AT WAR begins now with Tom Foreman.

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