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Chavez Threatens $200 Oil; Bangladesh Death Toll Soars; U.S. Pressure Mounts on Musharraf; Son works to free imprisoned dad in Pakistan; American Tourists Attacked in Mexico; Holiday Travel Slowing; Santa Ana Winds to Pick Up

Aired November 18, 2007 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Getting worse by the day, the cyclone death toll still climbing in Bangladesh. And a powerful message to Saudi women, a rape victim sentenced to 200 lashes for being alone with a man in the first place. And our top story. It is just talk so far, but the idea of $200-a-barrel oil -- well, it's now apparently on the table.
Hello again. I'm Fredricka Whitfield, and you are in the NEWSROOM. We begin with something that's hitting all of us, gas prices. You see how they've soared, with the cost of crude oil inching ever closer to $100 a barrel. So what would happen if oil jumped to 200 bucks a barrel, as floated by Venezuela's president at this weekend's OPEC summit.

CNN's Lisa Desjardins is on this story, live from Washington -- Lisa.

LISA DESJARDINS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's a new name. Everyone messes it up, including me.

(LAUGHTER)

DESJARDINS: But you know, what's happening here, Fredricka, is Chavez is taking a jab at the U.S. He's saying that oil prices could double if the U.S. attacks either his country or Iran. Is that true? Well, probably not. But this still is a very big story because you have to hold onto your credit card. Watch how Chavez and Iran are trying two different ways to try and make your life cost more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(voice-over): Yes, it seems bad now.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't drive that often, but you know, when I do, it's definitely -- makes a huge impact on the budget.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Actually, the gas prices is going up like crazy. I don't know what's going on.

DESJARDINS: But to understand what's happening, Americans busy watching the gas pump instead may want to look here, at OPEC, where Venezuela's president, Hugo Chavez, made a thinly veiled threat to one of the world's largest oil consumers. PRES. HUGO CHAVEZ, VENEZUELA (through translator): If the United States attempts the madness of invading Iran or attacking Venezuela again, the price of oil is going to reach $200, not just $100.

ANN KORIN, INST. FOR ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL SECURITY: You know, he's a big bully.

DESJARDINS: Ann Korin is an oil market expert at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, and she says oil could only jump that high from several catastrophes happening at once.

KORIN: He is also very determined to use oil as a weapon. And he is very determined to get OPEC to use its clout and use its power over this strategic commodity.

WHITFIELD: Another U.S. adversary and friend of Chavez, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, used the OPEC meeting to go after something else, the U.S. dollar. OPEC members sell in dollars now. If OPEC countries stopped using the dollar, it would be worth less. And in America, that would mean anything imported, from cameras to clothing, would cost more.

Korin says it's a way for oil-rich adversaries to hit U.S. wallets twice, at the pumps and at the mall.

KORIN: That will have a very serious almost avalanche effect on our currency and on the buying power of the dollar, and it will affect every American, his pocketbook.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DESJARDINS: For now, the OPEC ministers are staying with the dollar. In Washington, meanwhile, the White House has responded to news out of that OPEC meeting, saying the price of oil is, you guessed it, too high. They also say the U.S. needs to pull away from foreign sources of energy -- Fred.

WHITFIELD: All right, Lisa Desjardins. Got to remember that. I got to...

DESJARDINS: That's right.

WHITFIELD: ... look back into my French lessons.

(LAUGHTER)

WHITFIELD: All right. Thanks so much.

Well, now from conjecture to actual cost. Gas prices are steadily on the rise. The latest Lundberg (ph) survey shows that gas has jumped another 13 cents a gallon in the past two weeks, close to the all-time high set earlier this year. The average price for a gallon of self-serve regular now is $3.09, just 9 cents below May's record. And analysts say don't be surprised if fuel records are shattered in the coming weeks. Some more now on oil prices at the bottom of the hour, including the scary $200-a-barrel scenario. Our Josh Levs gives us a reality check.

And a horrifying disaster that gets deadlier by the day. Officials in Bangladesh now say that Thursday's monster cyclone has killed at least 2,000 people, and relief organizations warn the final death toll could be five times that. Helping survivors is extremely challenging. CNN's Cal Perry is in southern Bangladesh.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CAL PERRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm standing here on the biggest delta in the entire world. That is, of course, southern Bangladesh. And it gives you a perfect example of what the government, the people and aid organizations are trying to overcome as they try to reach some of the most heavily stricken areas from the storm.

(voice-over): We're actually traveling with Save the Children, a well-known aid organization. And as you can see, they have to cross a series of rivers to get down to southern Bangladesh, which is, of course, where the most damage is. These ferries are just starting to again start operating after the storm, and you can see as far as the eye goes, a line of cars, of food, people trying to return home, and aid organizations that are trying to get down to these areas.

It also shows the difficulty that the government is having in putting out numbers -- that is, the death toll from this very serious storm -- because there are simply areas where they have not been. The government is trying to get a look from the air and from the water at some villages along the coastline that they believe were completely destroyed. But again, it just shows you the logistical nightmare that is the recovery effort of this storm.

Now, in speaking with members of Save the Children, they're telling me that the three basic things they're going to try to do as soon as they get across this river is food, water and shelter. Those are the three basic needs that people don't have in these areas. They're also hoping, of course, as they move further south to the islands that they'll get a better picture of exactly what the human catastrophe from this toll was.

It's also very important to note in talking to these aid organizations that this is a long-term recovery effort. The rice crop, for example, here in the delta was ruined. It's supposed to come in December. Unfortunately, completely ruined from the storm. So people are going to be without food for months to come.

So these aid organizations are not just worried about the next week, they're worried about months in the future, feeding the people of Bangladesh. It's important to remember some 10 million people live on the other side of this river in this delta area. So it's a huge amount of people to feed, and these aid organizations have to overcome rivers like these in order to help the people of southern Bangladesh.

Cal Perry, CNN, southern Bangladesh. (END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: And "The New York Times" is reporting on a secret pact between the U.S. and Pakistan to protect that country's nuclear arsenal. "The Times" says the U.S. has sent almost $100 million to Pakistan over the last six years to help President Pervez Musharraf secure his nuclear warheads and labs.

Well, the White House is responding to that report. For that, let's go to CNN's White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux in Washington -- Suzanne.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Fred, you know, the big fear is, of course, that Musharraf loses power, then not only the U.S. loses a so-called ally in the war on terror but could have these loose nukes on its hands. Now, Pakistan is a nuclear power, and the U.S. has all kinds of joint military, intelligence, diplomatic efforts with the government there to make sure that those weapons don't get in the hands of terrorists.

NSC spokesman Gordon Johndroe responded to "The New York Times" reporter, trying to reassured worried Americans and nervous allies, saying, essentially, At this time, we believe that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and facilities are under appropriate control of Pakistani authorities.

Now, the Bush administration is trying to put pressure on General Musharraf without having him break. We saw deputy secretary of state John Negroponte. He is using sticks and carrots to try to get Pakistan's leader to lift this emergency rule. Now, one of the ways to stress that is that U.S. aid in the tune of some $10 billion since 9/11 can be taken away.

But the problem is much of that goes to Pakistan's counterterrorism efforts, which the U.S. desperately depends on. So therefore, you've got this kind of robust and even perhaps this aggressive face-to-face diplomacy that's taking place, with Negroponte trying to stress what needs to happen for Musharraf to remain in the U.S.'s good graces. So far, Pakistan's leader has refused to meet U.S. demands.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN NEGROPONTE, DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE: The United States believes that the best way for any country to counter violent extremism is to develop and nurture a moderate political center. We believe this is true for Pakistan, as well. And in my talks, I encouraged reconciliation between political moderates as the most constructive way forward.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: Musharraf has pledged to hold democratic elections in January, but he says he's not going to lift the state of emergency until the country is secure. And his political opponent, former prime minister Bhutto, told our own Wolf Blitzer earlier today that, essentially, if thousands of political activists are still jailed, the supreme court dismantled and free media choked, the whole notion of having these free elections is a farce.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BENAZIR BHUTTO, FORMER PAKISTAN PRIME MINISTER: I negotiated with him for a peaceful political transfer to a democratic Pakistan. I did that to avoid the mess that we are in today. But instead of following the road map that we had worked out, General Musharraf suspended the constitution, and I came to the conclusion that he simply wasn't interested in giving the opposition a fair chance in the elections.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: Well, Negroponte talked to Bhutto by phone during his visit. He was urging her to continue these talks with Musharraf to negotiate some kind of power-sharing arrangement. But so far, the Bush administration has been unable to convince her to do so. So we seem to be at a dangerous stalemate, Fred.

WHITFIELD: All right, Suzanne Malveaux in Washington, thank you.

Well, the son of a prominent political prisoner in Pakistan is working to win his father's release. The son is based in New York, and he can only watch from afar and he isn't getting much information about his father's condition. Still, he's doing all he can. CNN's Jim Acosta has the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIM ACOSTA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): How many people do you know who can say they've watched their father become a political prisoner on YouTube? Ali Ahsan can. That's his father, Aitzaz Ahsan, one of Pakistan's most prominent attorneys, taken into custody after President Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency.

(on camera): And in the middle of the press conference, he's arrested.

ALI AHSAN, SON OF POLITICAL PRISONER: Well, he was denouncing the military coup, and he was certainly probably high on their list of people to be locked up anyhow.

ACOSTA: Ahsan's father is a well-known thorn in the side of Musharraf, having represented Pakistan's recently deposed chief justice.

AHSAN: Our information is that he's in solitary confinement.

ACOSTA (on camera): Why is he there?

AHSAN: He's there -- well, there's no legal basis for him being there. There is -- but then again, there is no law in Pakistan. The basis that he's there is that he is an opponent of General Musharraf. ACOSTA (voice-over): And if that's not bad enough, the government, he says, is going after his mother, also an outspoken activist.

AHSAN: There are warrants for her arrest. They're going after the wives and children of people who are opposing them.

ACOSTA: As an attorney in the U.S., the younger Ahsan has been working to find support in Washington. Members of Congress have petitioned Musharraf to release Ahsan, as has the New York Bar Association.

BARRY KAMINS, PRES., NY BAR ASSOCIATION: The easiest way to start stripping democracy of its strength is to attack the judges, attack the lawyers. They're the ones that can resist. And once they go, it's not soon after that the -- right after that, democracy will collapse.

ACOSTA: But Ali Ahsan says Musharraf is taking different cues from the Bush administration, which he says has coddled the Pakistani leader for too long.

(on camera): But what we're told in this country is that Musharraf has been on our side during the war on terrorism.

AHSAN: He has because you've been paying him. All dictators that you're willing to support will generally be with you, but in the process, you are alienating the country that you really need to be with you.

ACOSTA (voice-over): Ahsan says the American people should look closely at the opposition building against Musharraf.

AHSAN: The most important thing I think they need to take away is that Musharraf's despotism and tyranny is being associated with American support, and people believe that it is being made possible and facilitated by U.S. support. You should do what America has always done, and its inclination has always been, which is to speak up clearly for liberty, for democracy.

ACOSTA: In the meantime, Ali Ahsan says he will be doing just that.

Jim Acosta, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: And this seems to be the time of year when many folks in America head south to warm beaches in Mexico.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAT WEBBER, VICTIM: There was a gun to the back of my head, execution-style -- No move, only money. No move.

(END VIDEOTAPE) WHITFIELD: Well, so much for his stress-free vacation. There are some things you need to know before you head to paradise.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: Watch the debate again tonight 6:00 and 10:00 PM.

Meantime, the breathtaking beaches in Baja, California, are quite a draw to many American tourists. But are they also a playground for violent criminals? Our Kara Finnstrom spokes with an American couple who set out for a heavenly trip that turned into a horror story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KARA FINNSTROM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: So this is the RV that you took down?

PAT WEBBER, VICTIM: Yes, it is.

FINNSTROM: Baja's remote beaches have beckoned surfing instructor Pat Webber more than 150 times, often with students in tow. Last October 23, what began as one more wave-riding adventure...

WEBBER: Knock, knock, knock on the door. And there's two big guys in ski masks, darkly clad, para-military style clothing.

FINNSTROM: ... ended in sheer terror.

WEBBER: Open up or I shoot! And then, Blam, the first shot comes in.

FINNSTROM: Inside Webber's camper, he and his girlfriend, Lori, hit the ground with glass raining down.

WEBBER: So the bullet came through here and it hit that light fixture right there, knocked the sconce out.

FINNSTROM (on camera): This is where it went through, right here.

WEBBER: Knocked the light -- it sure is.

FINNSTROM (voice-over): Webber says with guns held to both their heads, the men stole more than $10,000 worth of computers, cameras and other business equipment. But the worst wasn't over. Lori says the men then took turns raping her.

LORI HOFFMAN, VICTIM: And I'm just thinking, You know what? If I just don't react, you know, maybe they'll just be, you know, turned off, and off they go.

FINNSTROM (on camera): And their story isn't in isolation. Many Americans are returning from Mexico with tales of violence and crime. And the State Department says the dangers aren't just limited to the beaches. (voice-over): On their Web site, a list of warnings, like the armed robberies of entire busloads of passengers at West Coast beach resorts, robberies and assaults on taxi passengers in Mexico City and drug violence in border cities, some directed against U.S. citizens.

The State Department's Michele Bond says anyone traveling to Mexico should check the department's Web site for information about the cities they're visiting.

MICHELE BOND, U.S. STATE DEPT.: What are American citizens coming in with? What places should you be extra careful in that country? What should you be on the lookout for or try to avoid?

FINNSTROM: The government says it can't accurately track whether there's been an increase in crimes against Americans in Mexico because so few victims report them. Webber and his girlfriend did report this crime to Mexican police. CNN tried to contact Mexican authorities to ask about crimes against Americans. Our calls weren't returned. But the buzz on Internet sites and in surf shops is growing.

WEBBER: We're definitely hearing it on a regular basis.

FINNSTROM: With many surfers now thinking twice about the security lost when you cross the border.

Kara Finnstrom for CNN, Carlsbad, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: And later in the hour, another rape case that is causing outrage, this time in Saudi Arabia, where the victim has been sentenced to 200 lashes. We'll hear from a human rights expert about the treatment of women in Saudi Arabia.

And dangers from the Santa Ana winds are whipping up serious concerns on the West Coast. And just nasty weather in the East. Right, Jacqui?

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes. You know, it's going to be a big week for holiday travel, already a lot of people kicking it off early, with a lot of delays already. New York City, well, yes, it's going to take you a little bit to get there. That picture might look clear, but we've got a low ceiling. Basically, that means we've got low clouds, and that's why things are a little slow-going.

What can you expect Wednesday? Find out, but bring a book.

(LAUGHTER)

JERAS: Details are coming up.

WHITFIELD: Some good reading. All right, thanks, Jacqui.

Plus, the underground straight ahead, barricaded in a bunker and refusing to budge. Coming up, a doomsday cult has a warning for anyone who comes too close. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: And take a look right now at the latest views from Trafficland.com, a great place to check highway congestion as you head out on Thanksgiving trips. Just type in the city of your interest and find out what the roads are looking like in your area, and we'll keep watching these real-time cameras for you, as well, throughout the holiday week.

In southern California, they're hoping for the best but preparing for the worst as the Santa Ana winds kick back up. And as you can see, fire crews are checking their equipment right here, and military personnel is also deploying planes to the region in case we see a repeat of October's awful wildfires. Last month, the Santa Anas whipped flames out of control, killing several people and destroying thousands of homes.

So Jacqui, we mentioned holiday travel concerns, the Santa Ana winds. You've got your hands full this week.

JERAS: Yes, it's going to be a busy one, definitely. And those Santa Ana winds, by the way, we've got a couple of days to go before we think they're going to build in and kick up. You know, the West is actually seeing a lot of storminess in the last week-and-a-half or so, and those frequent storms are going to be coming to a little abrupt stop here by the middle part of this upcoming week. And that's going to last probably at least into the first half of the weekend. So we're expecting a significant Santa Ana wind event Wednesday through Saturday. And it looks like the very beginning Wednesday and the very end Saturday are going to be the strongest days. So keep that in mind, that critical fire conditions are expected in southern California. So if you're out there traveling, just play it smart. Don't do anything that could risk sparking a fire.

All right, let's get to the goods. Let's get to what's going on out there right now if you're traveling, if you're waiting in the airports. Yes, that's a lot of people today. Look at the waits already! And you know, this is just a weak storm system. This is some low clouds and high volume.

Really a lot of people are trying to get out the weekend before here. JFK has got ground delays an hour, over an hour-and-a-half here at Newark. about an hour in Philadelphia. San Francisco, over two hours right now. That's due to runway construction, though. Hopefully, they're going to get that cleared up before Wednesday. And LaGuardia's got ground delays, about 55 minutes there. We've had some delays a little farther out to the west, as well. Looks like those have cleared up. We were looking at LAX a little bit earlier. So it's nice to see when your automated updating system is working, isn't it?

(LAUGHTER)

WHITFIELD: It's always nice when you can count on the equipment!

JERAS: I know! Don't you love it? But this is what's going on in the Northeast, Fredricka. We've got some snow into the higher elevations of the Alleghenies. We've got a little bit of light rain trying to squeak (ph) its way into the New York City are, but really not a whole heck of a lot to report hitting on the ground.

Wednesday, the granddaddy day -- this is the big one of all the travel. What can we expect? Well, a lot of rain showers here through the Ohio Valley, down through the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley. Showers and pop-up thunderstorms, too. On the back side, it's going to be snow for you from Milwaukee over towards Des Moines. And we'll likely see rain turn to snow in Chicago. Snow could be heavy in the mountains of Colorado. We'll be watching Denver. Looks like it's not going to be a huge storm for you.

But there you can see those Santa Ana winds, Fred, really kicking up on Wednesday and we're looking at really very strong winds. We could be seeing 60-plus-mile-per-hour guests with that.

WHITFIELD: Oh, no! Nearing hurricane strength again.

JERAS: Yes, close to it.

WHITFIELD: All right, Jacqui. Thank you.

Well, coming up, this is an outrage story that's making headlines around the world. A Saudi Arabian woman who was gang raped is punished for actually being alone with a man in the first place.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: A quick look at what's happening right now in the news. Thousands are dead and hundreds of thousands homeless as Bangladesh reels from a killer cyclone. The death toll is around 2,000 now, and authorities fear the final number could be five times that after rescuers reach remote areas.

No promises and no assurances coming from Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf. A U.S. envoy met with Musharraf for two hours yesterday and urged him to end the emergency rule.

And Civil Rights icon the Reverend John Cross is being remembered for his contributions as the pastor of Birmingham, Alabama's, 16th Street Baptist Church. It was the site of the infamous 1963 bombing that killed four young girls. Cross died Thursday after an extended illness in Atlanta. He was 82.

And a new low today from Iraq's insurgency in the hotspot of Baqubah. Three U.S. soldiers along with three Iraqi children are reported killed in a bomb blast. But get this. The soldiers were handing out toys to the children at the time. The death toll for U.S. troops in Iraq now stands at 3,870.

A gang rape victim is being victimized again, this time by Saudi Arabia's justice system. The 19-year-old Shi'ite woman has been ordered to six months in prison and 200 lashes by a whip for violating a Saudi law that segregates the sexes. Well, she was alone with a man who wasn't her husband or a relative when seven men kidnapped and raped her. The seven were sentenced to up to 10 years in jail.

Christoph Wilcke is an expert on Saudi Arabia with the Human Rights Watch group in Washington.

Good to see you.

CHRISTOPH WILCKE, SAUDI ARABIA EXPERT, HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH: Hello, good evening, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: This is so outrageous but, at the same time, what is happening to this 19-year-old woman actually gets the support of Sharia law in Saudi Arabia, doesn't it?

WILCKE: Well, you really have to feel for this woman who has been through such a horrific ordeal. It's really a very narrow interpretation that has landed her in this situation. And that is the Saudi interpretation that a woman should not be on the streets. She shouldn't be out in public. But this...

WHITFIELD: And that law essentially saying she deserved it?

WILCKE: Well, it would be one thing if there were a law. Saudi Arabia doesn't write down its laws. So women, men, citizens, foreigners in Saudi Arabia, they don't know what the law is. They don't know when they break the law and they don't know when they're keeping within the law. So this woman did not know she could have been committing a crime until -- as a matter of fact, until the judge passed her verdict, she did not know that she was facing any charges.

WHITFIELD: So while there is worldwide outrage of how this woman is being victimized once again, what about within Saudi Arabia? Is there anyone who dares to challenge how she's being treated?

WILCKE: On this case, there are a number of press accounts that do highlight the injustice that has been done and the -- her supporters are certainly starting to write emails on the Internet for her. I've received a number of messages of support for her and her lawyer.

Her lawyer, we should remind viewers, had been kicked out of the courtroom and has had his license to practice law withdrawn. This shows that Saudi judges don't respect the law or the legal profession.

WHITFIELD: And we're showing some images that really are kind of like the slice of life kind of images in, mostly Riyadh, but really cross country in Saudi Arabia where women are generally covered from head to toe. There are limitations in their rights. We showed vehicles because women are not allowed to drive nor are they allowed to vote. So some might look at them as being considered real second class citizens.

So in recent years, there have been some women willing to be fairly outspoken by saying they want to have more rights, equal rights as men in that country. Does this kind of incident, what has happened to this 19-year-old woman, in any way kind of galvanize those women who have been willing to say that in this country? WILCKE: Well, let's not forget there are thousands of cases we probably don't know about. This woman and her lawyer have been courageous in speaking about the injustices they have suffered. The lady, who you just mentioned, who has petitioned for a right to drive a car, she's also been jailed, last year, as a matter of fact. So I don't see any change happening soon.

WHITFIELD: What kind of hope is there for this 19-year-old woman, since that is the subject we're talking about? Granted, there are probably a lot of other cases like hers, but what can you, as a Human Rights Watch group member do? What can anyone do to present some kind of light at the end of the tunnel for this woman, potential light?

WILCKE: Well, the Saudi justice system and the Saudi government have spoken they want to punish this woman. It's now up to the international community and visitors to Saudi Arabia -- there's an OPEC summit taking place right now -- to be very aware of what they're getting into when they're dealing with the Saudi government.

WHITFIELD: All right, Christoph Wilcke of the Human Rights Watch group. Thanks so much for your time.

WILCKE: Thank you.

Well, they are digging in and they're preparing to die. Cult members are in a snowy cave waiting for the end of the world. And they're threatening mass suicide if anyone forces them out before the so-called doomsday. The standoff is taking place in central Russia.

And CNN's Matthew Chance takes us there.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A bizarre standoff being played off in central Russia. Orthodox monks scaling down a snow-clad ravine to make contacts with members of a strange dooms-day cult, hiding in a cave and threatening to blow themselves up if disturbed.

The dozens of religious zealots are living in freezing conditions, waiting for the end of the world. They believe it will come in the spring and are reported to have horded enough supplies to last until then, including fuel and blankets and half a ton of honey and jam.

GENNADY SERIY, POLICE OFFICER (through translator): Those there have made no demands. When we contacted them, they said they only have one request, to leave them alone because they wanted to pray underground.

CHANCE: But concerns are increasing, especially for a number of children believed to be among the group. At least one as lounge as 18 months. The authorities insist they will not storm the cave, but pressure is growing for them to act. LEONID ROSHAL, PEDIATRICIAN (through translator): No one is entitled to endanger a child's life. Probably deprived from a life imposed on him the harshest living conditions.

CHANCE: The man who founded the cult is now in police custody at a mental hospital and has appeared on Russian television. Pyotr Kuznetsov, or Father Pyotr as he's known, says he ordered his followers into the cave, but didn't join them because he was waiting for more people.

PYOTR KUZNETSOV, CULT LEADER (through translator): We decided to make a large cave that would fit all of us, to isolate ourselves from the village folks. They've complained about us to local authorities, urging them to evict us from the village.

CHANCE: Police say before they charge him, he needs psychological treatment.

Matthew Chance, CNN, Moscow.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: It is not exactly the end of the world, but what if OPEC raised the price of oil to $200 a barrel? The suggestion is out in the open now. Say it does happen. What would that mean for you and me? A CNN reality check with answers.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: Time to see what's clicking with all of you CNN-dot- com'ers. A published report says the family of Tawana Brawley wants her case reopened. Twenty years ago, allegations of a gang rape made national headlines. A New York grand jury ruled her account a hoax.

And in Italy, reports that a bloody fingerprint found at the crime scene has police searching for a fourth suspect in the murder of a British student. Already in custody, the girl's American roommate and the roommate's Italian boyfriend and Congolese boss.

And in Florida, the delayed execution of a child killer means agony for the victim's family. The U.S. Supreme Court stayed Mark Schwab's execution Thursday hours before he was to be put to death. Schwab was convicted of kidnapping, raping and killing an 11-year-old boy.

Talk about fueling controversy. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has raised the specter of $200 a barrel oil. His warning came yesterday as he opened the OPEC summit in the Saudi capital and, as you might guess, Mr. Chavez tied oil's fortunes to U.S. foreign policy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HUGO CHAVEZ, PRESIDENT OF VENEZUELA (through translator): If the United States does the crazy thing of invading Iran or attacking Venezuela again, the barrel of oil is not just going to reach $100 U.S. dollars, it can make it to $200 U.S. dollars.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WHITFIELD: All right, so the big question, if oil hit $200 a barrel, how would it affect us at the pump and beyond?

CNN's Josh Levs is here to talk us through all of it.

Let's start with the big if.

JOSH LEVS, CNN ECONOMIC ANALYST: Huge hypothetical. But it's also an opportunity to take a look at OPEC and how this really works and how you end up paying your money at the pump and what that would do.

Obviously, gas prices are a huge concern for Americans. And it is true, hypothetically, if this happened it would affect prices at the pump. I cannot give you an exact number, because there are so many factors. But I'm going to explain how this works.

OPEC does not control the majority of the world's oil production. The way the U.S. government puts it, OPEC has significant influence on oil prices. OPEC actually controls about 40 percent of world oil production and has two-thirds of the oil reserves. That's important to understand because they're not this monolithic force that controls all oil.

Now when you pay at the pump, that right there is where your money goes. And you can see at the top, more than 50 cents of every dollar goes to crude oil.

So yes, if the price of crude oil jumped a lot, if suddenly you were at $200 a barrel, if it doubled, it is true that that portion that you're paying right there, that 50 cents, could go way up. So yes, you would pay more at the pump. I can't give you a number. You would.

But the thing is, if OPEC did that, the nations would work to get more of their oil from the non-OPEC nations and people would buy less of it in general, Fred, and find other ways to get around. It's hypothetical. So it's not as simple as they said it, we all buy it and they get the money.

WHITFIELD: But it would seem if they dangled the carrot, they would say it's going to come at a premium. That's still the hypothetical.

LEVS: Everyone bargains a little.

WHITFIELD: It is something we need to really be worried about. It's just not probable.

LEVS: It's so far from probable. It's not likely at this point. What we're hearing -- this is at a big OPEC meeting and he made this remark. And he knew -- Hugo Chavez understood this would have geopolitical repercussions to even talk about $200 a barrel. But the thing is...

WHITFIELD: It got people's attention.

LEVS: It did. But first of all, he was saying if the U.S. launched war on Iran or Venezuela. So that's a huge hypothetical. But it's helpful for people to understand this. OPEC itself -- and you've got a dozen nations so he can't just do whatever he wants. And OPEC does not want to charge the maximum amount humanly possible for oil. That's bad for them. What they want is something different. They want to charge the maximum amount people will pay. Because the last thing they want is for us to overcome our oil addiction.

So if they wanted to charge a trillion dollars a barrel, everyone could stop driving. People would be in the streets. There would be protests. People would start forcing the government to come up with new ways to get around and that would be terrible for OPEC. So they want to keep it within the limit people are willing to pay, the high end of that.

So even the idea of them playing around with oil prices, it is not that simple. They're not going to have fun with oil prices and bring it beyond anything Americans would pay. So even in that scenario, even if you take the war element out, just not likely.

WHITFIELD: That is comforting.

LEVS: See, you thought I was bringing bad news.

WHITFIELD: Thank you.

LEVS: Have a good evening, people.

WHITFIELD: Thanks, Josh.

All right, well, super heroes. They don't always wear capes, you know. Sometimes they're buckled up in your minivan. We'll talk to one who saved his mom's life.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: The news across America begins with a wild story in Haverhill, Massachusetts. Police had charged an 18-year-old assistant manager at a McDonald's with selling pot out of the restaurant's drive-through window. The suspect allegedly sold his customers and an undercover agent marijuana with their meals.

A law enforcement first in South Carolina's new graduating class of highway patrol officers. Call it a family affair. 53-year-old James Hicks and his son, David, completed their training class together. If that isn't enough, James has another police officer son considering joining the state patrol.

And 50 years of Miami Beach history went down with a bang this morning, right there. The old Belle Harbor Sheraton Hotel was imploded as planned. Back in the 1950s heyday, the Belle Harbor was the place to frolic in the Florida sun. Now it gives way to condos and new beach front developments.

And just north of Modesto (ph), California, six high school cheerleaders are suspended because school officials thought their spirit was a little too cheeky. Their routine ended with them flipping up their skirts to reveal the mascot's team name spelled out on their underwear. A big no-no there apparently.

A couple of quick-thinking brothers in Buffalo, New York, are being credited with saving their mother's life. Sandy Miranto was backing out of the driveway on Friday when she fell ill and slumped over the wheel. That's when her two sons, 12-year-old Jamie and 7- year-old Jaden, sprang into action and actually stopped the van. The boys visited their mother in the hospital today and she's recovering from cardiac arrest.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMIE/JADEN MIRANTO: There is no future signs of this happening, it just happened.

BRIAN MIRANTO, HUSBAND AND FATHER: She has a history of intestinal problems in her family. And some of those problems can lead to losing potassium through your bodily functions.

WHIT (on camera): Yeah.

B. MIRANTO: And, there had never been an issue before.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WHITFIELD: I spoke with the family last hour. So today, dad and the brothers tell me that mom is doing 100 percent better. They got a chance to visit her earlier.

The FBI is taking corrective action. Perhaps scores of people are behind bars based on discredited FBI evidence. The bureau's bullet lead analysis tried to link bullets used in a crime to those found in a suspect's gun or possession. Well, the belief that each batch of bullets had a unique elemental makeup. Not so, apparently, and the agency abandoned the technique two years ago. Now "Washington Post"-"60 Minutes" investigation has found that at least 250 convictions, in part, based on that faulty science. The FBI says it is launching a review and has offered to work with lawyers from the Innocence Project.

Still a lot of questions surrounding the death of Donda West, the mother of hip-hop star Kanye West. She died last weekend after undergoing cosmetic surgery. A Beverly Hills plastic surgeon says he performed a tummy tuck and a breast reduction on her and a preliminary autopsy reports indicates she may have died from surgical complications. Dr. Jan Adams is the doctor who performed that operation, so what does he have to say about Donda West's death? Find out when he sits down with an exclusive interview with Larry King. You don't want to miss that, Tuesday night, 9:00 eastern, 6:00 pacific only on CNN. A Diamond Anniversary for Britain's bejeweled monarch. Again -- Queen Elizabeth's 60th wedding anniversary isn't until Tuesday, but she and husband Prince Phillip are already starting to celebrate. Here they are as the parliament ceremony in London last week. Elizabeth is the first British ruler to reach such a marriage milestone.

Tonight, Prince Charles hosts a private dinner for his parents. And tomorrow they have another ceremony at the Westminster Abbey.

MTV's debut in Saudi Arabia opens up a whole new world for artists, a new world with, of course, boundaries.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ABDULLATIF AL-SAYEGH, CEO, ARAB MEDIA GROUP: Rap about the family, about the country, about your school, about the work, about your colleagues, about your mom, about your dad.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WHITFIELD: MTV goes Arabic, next in the "NEWSROOM."

And that brings us to our news quiz. Listen to this.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

WHITFIELD: Maybe you recognize the tune. I know you'll recognize the lyrics. "Video Killed the Radio Star" by the Buggles, and it was the first song played on MTV when it debuted here in the states. We're asking you in what year did MTV debut? 1979, '81 or '82? The answer in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: OK, so before the break we told you "Video Killed the Radio Star" by the Buggles was the first song ever played on MTV. So what was the year in which MTV debut? Was it 1979, '81 or was it 1982? If you said MTV debuted in 1981, you are correct.

And finally, could it be that everyone really does want their MTV? MTV Arabia is ready to rock the Middle East. And the folks behind the music giant are banking on a lot of pent up demand.

More now from John Defterios.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Two youngsters repeating in Arabic a slogan older than both of them combined, "I want my MTV." They request will be answered with the launch of MTV Arabia.

It's the 53rd MTV channel opened by Bill Rody, MTV's global ambassador since 1989. He's tackled markets in China, India and Russia. But the Free-to-Air channel with 290 million viewers on two satellites may be the most challenging yet.

BILL RODY, MTV GLOBAL AMBASSADOR: I think there's a little love- hate thing going on with global culture, if you will. From my stand point, the most important thing is to nail it locally.

DEFTERIOS: Rody and the MTVs local partner, the Arab Media Group, want to build the brand around hip-hop.

The program will be hosted by Saudi rapper Hussein Hugar (ph). And he Palestinian American producer Farad Nasser (ph). Nasser has worked with such marquee performers as Snoop Dog and Fifty Cents. But don't expect the racy lingo of MTV Europe or the U.S.

AL-SAYEGH: We're not going to go in a way, okay, guys, hip-hop can basically use words that are not acceptable to that society. No. Rap about your family. Rap about your country, about your school, about your work, about your colleagues, about your mom, about your dad.

DEFTERIOS: At launch, 40 percent of the content will be produced locally including an Arabic adaptation of Main (ph), an MTV show that helps young people with their dreams.

(on camera): While the advertising market for this genre is not big today, media companies like MTV are betting on the future. Two- thirds of the population is below the age of 25 and surveys show it will remain that way for the next quarter century.

(voice-over): That demographic profile and a flood of petro dollars have led to a lot of deal making. MTV parent Viacom has a $2.5 billion licensing agreement for a theme park in Dubai. NBC Universal has a similar $2.2 billion deal. And the parent of this network, Time Warner, a multibillion dollar entertainment and media development in neighboring Ambu Dambi (ph).

In the MTV Arabia model, Rody signed a ten-year partnership allowing AMB to license the brand. But licensing and marketing and production support from London. Viacom's Nickelodeon's channel for children is coming as well.

Viewers can spend the day clicking through current offerings. Some 50 music channels are in the market, dominated by Rotana (ph), which is owned by Saudi billionaire Prince Alwale Bentala (ph)

(on camera): How do stand out within this, you know, forest of channels and still make money?

RODY: We'll be the biggest and the tallest tree for one thing. But, no, you're right. There's quite a proliferation of channels and it's very competitive. And we're not unaccustomed to that as well.

DEFTERIOS (voice-over): In a status-conscious society, many say MTV's size and global brand recognition with play well with the region's youth.

UNIDENTIFIED ARAB TEEN: They have time and they have money and they want change. That's the reason, because they love fashion.

DEFTERIOS: Which Rody hopes will lead millions more to say, "I want my MTV" in whatever Arabic dialect they choose.

John Deftarios, CNN, Dubai.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: Whoa. Rock on, MTV.

I'm Fredricka Whitfield. A replay of the Democratic debate begins right now.

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