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Lou Dobbs Tonight
Antarctic Rescue; No Docking in Hong Kong; Syrian Emergency; Black Friday
Aired November 23, 2007 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thanks, Suzanne.
Tonight millions of shoppers hit the stores, some before Thanksgiving Day was over but the rush is pampered with concerns over unsafe toys and even unsafe clothes imported from communist China.
Also, a new mortgage scandal hitting America's middle class; mortgage brokers receiving higher fees to steer customers towards mortgages they can't afford.
And political eyes turns to Iowa, the nation's first political caucus is just weeks away and all indications point to a very close race. Our distinguished panel of political analysts will be here to put it all in perspective, all that, all the day's news and more, much more straight ahead tonight.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS TONIGHT: news, debate, and opinion for Friday, November 23rd. Live from New York, sitting in for Lou Dobbs, Kitty Pilgrim.
PILGRIM: Good evening, everybody. There is new turmoil in the Middle East. It could have an impact on U.S.-brokered peace talks. The pro-Syrian president of Lebanon stepped down and ordered the Army to take control throughout the country, saying that there are quote, "risks of a state of emergency." But the pro-western prime minister rejected the move, and now there are concerns that this latest dispute could turn violent just days before peace talks are slated to begin here in the United States.
We begin tonight with Kathleen Koch at the White House. Kathleen?
KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Kitty, the Bush administration is closely watching the unfolding events in Lebanon, Assistant Secretary of State, David Welch saying it's a quote, "good signal" that the Lebanese Army is committed and imposing security. Now the Bush administration certainly does not want anything to disrupt its efforts to restart the stalled Israeli/Palestinian peace process.
President Bush proudly points out that he is the first U.S. president to advance the solution of a two-state solution, I should say, to the violence in the Middle East. Critics point out that President Bush has done very little to achieve it so the White House has been working very hard to get as many Arab countries as possible to sign on to join in this peace conference next week, with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, so the White House today said it was pleased by a vote by Saudi Arabia and the coalition of Arab states to join in the meeting.
State Department saying quote, "we welcome the decision by the Arab League follow-up committee to attend the Annapolis conference at the ministerial level. This is a signal, they believe, this will be a serious and substantive meeting."
Now, certainly according to the White House, the goal of this meeting is to set up a framework to establish an independent Palestinian state, the administration saying, the -- excuse me -- the administration saying -- excuse me -- that they believe that this is a goal that is achievable, before the president leaves office in just over a year, but still interesting to point out that Press Secretary Dana Perino earlier this week did a check a bit of reality saying the administration realizes that the conference won't have quote, "instant results" -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Thanks very much, Kathleen Koch, a critical week ahead for the Middle East.
There are new developments tonight in the crisis in Pakistan. Pakistan Supreme Court Friday upheld President Musharraf's state of emergency. Anti-Musharraf demonstrations took to the streets in protest. Now, they support Nawaz Sharif, an opponent of President Musharraf who is now in exile. Now Sharif said he'll return to Pakistan as early as next week; his return could lead to a new challenge of President Musharraf's emergency rule.
New tension between communist China and the United States military today; Communist China reneged on an agreement to allow the USS Kitty Hawk carrier group to make a port call in Hong Kong, and it's just the latest swipe at the United States and it comes just after Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced a new agreement of cooperation.
Barbara Starr has our report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was supposed to be a Thanksgiving port call in Hong Kong for thousands of sailors in the USS Kitty Hawk battle group. But on Tuesday just hours before docking, China refused to allow the U.S. Navy into Hong Kong, a port it has visited for years. Admiral Timothy Keating, the head of the U.S. Pacific command says he wants an explanation.
VOICE OF ADMIRAL TIMOTHY KEATING, U.S. PACIFIC COMMANDER: China's denial for port access to the USS Kitty Hawk battle group for Thanksgiving is perplexing and concerning to me as a commander of the Pacific command. It is hard to put a positive spin on this for us.
STARR: Hours later, China relented but it was too late. The Kitty Hawk was already on its way back to Japan, hundreds of family members were left waiting in Hong Kong.
(MUSIC)
STARR: It is an embarrassment for the Pentagon; just over two weeks ago Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced a number of new agreements while in Beijing.
ROBERT GATES, DEFENSE SECRETARY: We've reached agreement on implementation of a direct telephone link between our two defense establishments. We discussed the need to move forward and deepen our military-to-military dialogue, including on that nuclear policy, strategy and doctrine.
STARR: There's still a chill on U.S./China military relations. China has refused to tell the United States details of a test in which one of its missiles shot down a satellite in space, a significant achievement. There are new warnings about China spying in cyberspace. A congressional review warned that Chinese espionage activities in the United States are so extensive that they comprise the single greatest risk to the security of American technologies.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
STARR: Kitty, Admiral Keating in that interview also told me that in his view the snafu with the Chinese was lousy, lousy he said for the American families that were left in Hong Kong waiting for those sailors to show up -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Well there's no question about that but I guess the real question, Barbara, is it deliberate, the military-to-military cooperation is being talked up quite a bit by members of our military, but it doesn't seem to be working very well.
STARR: Well, you know, they're really mystified by this one, Kitty, by all accounts, they think maybe the Chinese are upset about the possibility of a new round of arm sales to Taiwan, about the U.S. visit by the Dalai Lama, but they really haven't gotten an answer from the Chinese and they want one. They want to know why the Chinese took this very unexpected action against the U.S. Navy -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: So much for the so-called improved communication between the two militaries. Barbara, there is a follow-up question I would like to ask you. Could you bring us up-to-date on the Marine's effort to deliver relief supplies to the victims of the cyclone that hit Bangladesh last week?
(CROSSTALK)
STARR: Right. You know, Kitty, we have some pictures to show you. These are some of the first pictures taken by U.S. Marine combat photographers from the airwaves. They flew their helicopters over, eight from the U.S. military, now landing in Bangladesh. But you can just see the desperation of the situation for the people there.
As a helicopter comes in, people are rushing towards it, trying to get whatever aid they can. The U.S. military is joining the international relief effort across the southern Delta region there, bringing as of today food, water, medical supplies, anything they can. They are going to try and stay there just as long as they possibly can; these, again, the first pictures being taken by U.S. military photographers, as they landed today in southern Bangladesh -- Kitty.
PILGRIM: Very difficult task. Thanks very much, Barbara Starr.
An amazing escape story tonight for more than 150 people, after their cruise ship struck an iceberg off the waters of Antarctica; the passengers scrambled for life boats and floated in the freezing waters for hours in the middle of the night -- Alphonso Van Marsh reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ALPHONSO VAN MARSH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Images from the "MS Explorer's" (ph) last cruising moments off Antarctica. For the Gap Adventures tourists the ice-strengthened ship apparently wasn't strong enough.
VOICE OF SUSAN HAYES, GAP ADVENTURES: It hit some ice and began taking on some water. The pumps, the bilge pumps were managing the water, but the decision was made that all the passengers should be evacuated for their safety.
VAN MARSH: The Liberian flagship was cruising near the South Shetland Islands when the crew put passengers on life boats. The passengers, from more than a dozen countries later transferred to another ship and are being taken to Chile. There are no reported injuries.
VOICE OF MIKE MULFORD, RAF SEARCH AND RESCUE: We cannot underestimate how difficult it is when a ship gets into trouble in somewhere like the Antarctic. You've got cold. You've got distance. You've got the fact that there will be no helicopters locally. You've got a lot of time before the next ships can come along, and I think really it's quite a wonderful moment, tinged with sadness of course, but it is really tremendous that these people have been saved.
VAN MARSH: The tourists had signed up for a 19-day luxury tour with the crew, two operators say, that was experienced.
JOHN WARNER, GAP ADVENTURES MARKETING MGR.: The "MS Explorer" (ph) was built in 1969 and was the first passenger expedition ship and has been going (INAUDIBLE) got a pioneering history of going around those waters.
VAN MARSH: According to the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators, that history has not been without incident. The organization report said in 1979, "MS Explorer" (ph) then registered then as the "Linblad Explorer" (ph) grounded on the rocks to the west of the Antarctica Peninsula.
This voyage was billed as a cruise beyond the Arctic Circle where tourists could learn about some of the more dramatic expeditions in a remote corner of the world. But for the passengers and crew on the "MS Explorer" (ph), this adventure was a little more dramatic than they ever could have planned.
Alphonso Van Marsh, CNN, London.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: An amazing escape indeed. Thank goodness they all survived.
Coming up, does the government have the right to track you anywhere, any time, through your cell phone? We'll have that story.
Also, holiday shoppers hit the street, but behind the frenzy there is fear about unsafe toys and products imported from China. We'll have a special report on that. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: The massive product recalls this year did not stop millions of shoppers from rushing to stores for the first big shopping day of the holiday season. Many stores around the country opened as early as 4:00 a.m. for the so-called early bird specials on everything from flat screen TVs to toys. The day after Thanksgiving is called black Friday because traditionally, it marks the day when retailers move out of the red, indicating losses and back into the black, representing profit. Toy safety is not the only thing shoppers should be worried about when they hit the stores this holiday season.
As Lisa Sylvester reports, there are rising concerns about the safety of clothing made in communist China.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Recall after recall, dangerous toys, tainted foods, and now a new worry, toxic clothing. Marilyn Fehrer (ph) brought her grandson this bib made in China. As a precaution she had it tested for lead. The levels far exceeded the legal limits prompting retailer Wal-Mart to pull the bibs off its shelves. Last year from July of 2006 to July of this year, the United States imported more than $93 billion in textiles and apparel from other countries.
DAVID BROOKSTEIN, PHILADELPHIA UNIVERSITY: We haven't paid nearly as much attention to this potential problem as we have with the toys and the food, and from my viewpoint, this will be the next big thing that hits the American consumer on the head.
SYLVESTER: Researchers at Philadelphia University are testing imported clothing to see if they contain unacceptable levels of toxic dyes and chemicals, including formaldehyde, a known carcinogen used to make clothing wrinkle free. Another dangerous chemical is bromine, used in fire-retardant clothing and furnishings.
A Michigan environmental group, The Ecology Center, tested children's car seats this year and found they were teaming with bromine and other toxins. The issue now has the attention of Representative Robin Hayes. He says companies are using cheaper chemicals to boost profit. REP. ROBIN HAYES (R), NORTH CAROLINA: The tendency and the propensity to move to any product or any chemical that will lower the price is really prevalent in their product and you're seeing it time and time again.
SYLVESTER: The Consumer Product Safety Commission says it has not received urgent complaints of chemicals on clothing but added that "the CPSC takes the issue of chemical violations very seriously and will investigate when the agency determines a risk may exist."
(on camera): Representative Robin Hayes has introduced legislation that would give customs and border protection new authority at the ports to pull shipments of clothing with unacceptable levels of chemicals.
Lisa Sylvester, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: More than 20 million dangerous and toxic toys were pulled from the stores this year. There is increasing evidence our government does little to ensure the safety of those toys before they hit the store shelves. In fact, the help isn't offered until after it's too late.
Well after months of recalls, congressional hearings and public outcry, the problem is still widespread. The Center for Environmental Health spent four days buying toys right off the shelves in stores such as Target, Wal-Mart and the Disney Store. The center found almost one in ten of the toys it purchased had high levels of lead, of 900 parts per million or more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM (voice-over): Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt in Chicago on a multi-state tour to talk about safety of imports. He's warming up his tough talk planned for the Chinese.
MICHAEL LEAVITT, HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES SECY.: We can say until you can demonstrate to us that your product meets our standard, we're going to deny you access to consumer markets in the United States. That is the ultimate capacity to enforce.
PILGRIM: But on the verge of the holiday season, consumers are still not getting much government help in making sure toys are safe.
ED MIERZWINSKI, PUBLIC INTEREST RESEARCH GRP: People have no idea that the government only checks toys after they hear about a complaint. No government agency inspects toys before they are sold nor does it certify toys before they're sold.
PILGRIM: The way it works, it's still up to the manufacturer to promise it is meeting all of the U.S. safety laws and that clearly doesn't work. U.S. toy companies outsource most of their production to China to take advantage of cheap foreign labor and now the U.S. consumer is paying for it. CHARLES MARGULIES,CTR. FOR ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH: The big retailers and the big toy makers are looking to find the cheapest source as possible and that means cutting corners. We can't cut corners anymore. We have to protect our kids first and worry about cheaper products second.
PILGRIM: The Consumer Products Safety Commission says 25 million toys were pulled off the shelves this year and acting Chairman Nancy Nord says more toys are undergoing inspection than ever before, but this month independent tests on toys taken off store shelves by the watchdog group Center for Environmental Health turned up shocking levels of lead. The legal limit is 600 parts per million, but a tea set at Target had a level of more than 10,000 and a Dora game pack, 8,000.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: The once mighty dollar hit a new low against the euro on this black Friday. The European currency spiked early, hitting $1.49; the British pound also riding high. It is trading at 2.05. That's attracting a wave of shoppers from across the pond, looking to take advantage of the weakened greenback.
Time now for some of your e-mails and Patricia in Virginia wrote to us, "Dear Lou, thank you for caring and for being a crusader to save our vanishing middle-class."
James in Tennessee wrote to us, "Thank you, Mr. Dobbs, for not being afraid to deliver the news the way it needs to be, straightforward and honest and not worrying about stepping on the toes that need to be stomped on."
And Carolyn in Delaware wrote, "Lou, I am a dedicated fan of your show because you have been the voice of sanity in an insane world. Please continue to speak out for the government of the people, by the people, and for the people of the United States of America."
We will have more of your e-mails a little bit later in the broadcast, and each of you whose e-mail is read here receives a copy of Lou's new book "Independents Day: Awakening the American Spirit."
Still ahead, war on the middle class; I'll have a report on how shady mortgage brokers are helping to drive the foreclosure crisis across the country.
Also, cell phone privacy, could big brother be tracking your every move? We'll have all that straight ahead. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Like they say, it can be lonely at the top. Now take for example North Dakota Democrat Byron Dorgan. You see him here gaveling a nearly empty Senate chamber into session today, then he gaveled the work day to a close 28 seconds later. Now the parliamentary maneuver ensures President Bush cannot make several controversial appointments while Congress is away on a two-week recess.
Could big brother be as close as your ear? Law enforcement is secretly tracking criminal suspects through their cell phones, but reportedly in some cases without showing probable cause that a crime has been or will be committed. Kelli Arena reports on concern among privacy advocates trying to protect honest citizens.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Thanks to the latest technology, experts say that cell phones can help track people within a city block in real time, even if your phone is turned off, but just who can get access to that information, and under what circumstances? Marc Rotenberg is a privacy advocate.
MARC ROTENBERG, ELECTRONIC PRIVACY INFO. CTR.: I think we need some very clear guidance in this area, both on the legal side and on the technology side.
ARENA: It's a tool increasingly used by law enforcement, working things like child abduction cases and drug investigations. Prosecutors have to go before a judge to get access to that information, but there's a big debate over the standard of evidence that they must present.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And the question comes down to this, what does the government need to prove or assert before the telephone company can be required to provide this information about one of its customers.
ARENA: Justice officials say their lawyers have been told to prove there is probable cause that a crime is about to or has taken place, but that doesn't always happen. Judges sometimes rule the information can be turned over anyway because it's relevant to an ongoing investigation. David Laufman is a former federal prosecutor.
DAVID LAUFMAN, KELLEY, DRYE & WARREN: The government would take the position that this is not intrusive enough to require a showing of probable cause in particular because no content of the communications is obtained by the information provided by the communications carriers.
ARENA (on camera): The Justice Department argues it's not interested in tracking law-abiding citizens but this is another one of those topics being debated mostly in the dark, that's because the request for information and subsequent judge's orders are often kept secret.
Kelli Arena, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: Coming up, the end game is on for the presidential candidates to lure voters into their fold for the final sprint leading up to the first caucus and primary.
Also, a little known fact about some mortgage brokers, their greed helps fuel millions of home foreclosures all over the country.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Greedy banks are not the only ones to blame for a rising tide of home foreclosures around the country. Some mortgage brokers are also cashing in by tricking middle class Americans into mortgages they cannot afford. In return for pushing homeowners into higher interest rate brackets, they get a kickback from the lender. The practice is known as yield spread premium.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The formal living room.
PILGRIM (voice-over): Thought mortgage brokers worked for you, the homebuyer, not exactly. If a broker can steer a mortgage applicant into a higher interest rate loan that broker sometimes collects a fee or a rebate from the bank or mortgage company lending the money.
ALLEN FISHBEIN, CONSUMER FEDERATION OF AMERICA: Brokers, I think, borrowers feel have some legal requirement to represent their best interests, in most states, this is not the case. Their incentive is to make the most they can from that transaction, even if it means placing a borrower into a more expensive loan than they qualify for.
PILGRIM: The fee the broker gets is called a yield spread premium. Consumer groups say it's a kickback for the broker that the buyer usually doesn't know about. Here's how it works.
A bank or a mortgage company quotes loan prices to a mortgage broker. A mortgage broker then delivers those prices to borrowers. If a broker can talk a borrower into a higher interest rate loan, they are paid the yield spread premium from the bank or mortgage company. A borrower may pay lower fees initially but end up paying more in interest over time.
JACK GUTTENTAG, THE MORTGAGE PROFESSOR: What a lot of mortgage brokers do is to tell the borrower, I'm not charging you anything for my services. My services are not going to cost you anything because they collect their payment from the lender. That is a very common practice.
PILGRIM: It is perfectly legal and according to the Consumer Federation of America, has occurred in 85 to 90 percent of all sub prime mortgages.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: By putting people into more expensive loans than they qualify for, it's actually making it more difficult for many of these borrowers to continue to be able to successfully repay their loans and sustain home ownership, and it's certainly contributed to the foreclosure problem that we're witnessing now.
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN ANCHOR: A consumer watchdog group called the Center for Responsible Lending says yield spread premiums cost 1.5 million families 2.6 billion dollars in higher interest rate charges in 2005.
Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren is an expert on how some mortgage brokers are fueling the rapid rise of home foreclosures. She wants to stop the fleecing of America's middle class.
PROF. ELIZABETH WARREN, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: This is an important thing to understand right now. We're talking about the sub prime mortgage meltdown and almost every sentence that describes this trouble in the mortgage industry right now starts out by saying people buying homes they couldn't afford. Well, that's one version of what's gone wrong, but the yield spread premium has given us a second version of what's gone wrong and that is there are home owners right now today who are in trouble on their mortgages who qualified for 6.5 percent and would be current on their mortgages at 6.5 percent, but got sold a much worse product, like a 228 that escalated to 9.5 percent, and now they can't make their mortgage payments at all. So we have people ...
PILGRIM: Solidly middle class people who have jobs and who have not had any kind of financial upset, correct?
WARREN: That's exactly right. People who have impeccable credit records, who have jobs, who work hard, who pay their bills on time, and who could in the lousy mortgages where they were destined to fail and the reason they were put there was because there was a mortgage broker who could make a lot more money from selling that product instead of the product that would have been the one that kept the family in their homes.
PILGRIM: You know, you talk about this sort of propensity to blame the victims over this issue, but in fact, is it a problem that government should have addressed earlier than this?
WARREN: You know, this is one of the fallouts that no one wants to talk about. When you deregulate a market and you say to home buyers, for example, hey, you're on your own out there, and it's a complex product that's very difficult to understand, that is a home mortgage, and it's gotten harder and harder with 228s and negative amortization and other kinds of creative financing, and it's expensive to find out.
Doing a full-fledged mortgage application so that you have a real legitimate quote, costs time and costs money. So that means it's not like you go to one store and look at a shirt and you go to the next store next door and look at a shirt and you do some comparative shopping. This is a market where it is hard for a home owner to do comparative shopping, and look, let me be frank with you. Even when you try to do the comparative shopping, you think you've done it, you think you've gotten the lowest quote, it turns out that, when you talk to the brokers, if they're not honest brokers, they can give you a song and dance, a razzmatazz on why, well, yes, it appears this one is more expensive but this is one's really cheaper for this reason and this reason and this reason and frankly, for a non-professional, it's really hard to make a straight up apples to apples comparison, and get the best product.
That means it's a place where we need some kind of protection, some kind of regulation, where the government, where an independent regulatory body, has to say, hey, look, you don't get to cheat people in this particular way. You can sell your products, you can price your products the way you want, but we have to make this market work, and the way you make this market work is you make these brokers be honest and up front, and tell people, if I'm going to take a bribe of $8,000 to put you in a worst mortgage, I have to tell you that and I have to tell you that on the first day, when you walk in here to apply for the mortgage.
PILGRIM: That seems straightforward to me and seems like the only way to do business in this country. Let's see if we can manage to do that in the future. Elizabeth Warren, thank you very much for explaining a very complicated situation to us, Elizabeth Warren.
Elizabeth Warren points out the indirect compensation for mortgage brokers is not clearly disclosed on loan applications often and most often goes unexplained to the borrower and mortgage specialists say home buyers should educate themselves on these YSPs and ask brokers up front, state in writing all fees and payments for borrowers and lenders.
And that brings us to our poll question tonight, have the presidential candidates from either party offered voters real solutions to the problems facing middle class Americans? Yes or no? Cast your votes at LouDobbs@CNN.com. We'll bring you results a little bit later in the broadcast.
Still coming up tonight, immigration is a make or break issue for Iowa republicans, less than six weeks before the caucuses, and are the presidential hopefuls addressing the hopes and questions of a growing block of independent voters?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: Retail madness across America today. Here's the scene in Aurora, Illinois, this morning. Millions scramble to elbow their way into shops, trying to snatch the best deals in the end stretch to the holiday season. I don't think it's the end stretch. It's probably the beginning stretch.
This shopping frenzy is also a signal for the presidential candidates. They have less than six weeks left in the mad dash to lure political customers to their cause before the first voters cast their preferences in the nation's first caucus and primary.
So joining me now for more on the campaign madness, we'll skip the retail part, are three of the best political analysts in the country. We're joined by republican strategist Ed Rollins, and Ed is also a former White House political director under Ronald Reagan, "New York Daily News" Columnist Errol Louis and democratic strategist Robert Zimmerman, and Robert is also a democratic committeeman and a supporter of Hillary Clinton's campaign. Gentlemen, thanks for being here.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you.
PILGRIM: There is -- Christmas is canceled for the candidates, that's for sure, and especially --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And New Year's.
PILGRIM: And New Year's and just about any other festivity in between.
Let's take a look at Iowa first, and take a look at the most recent poll. This is ABC News/"The Washington Post" poll. We have an interesting development here, Obama at 30 percent, Clinton at 26 percent, Edwards at 22 percent and Richardson at 11 percent. Obama is apparently you know, pulling out the stops with the younger kids. There's, you know, Barack superstars, the high school seniors. He's also quite big with the college kids, but does that help in the caucuses, Robert?
ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: It will be the interesting test to see, if you look at the poll and go behind the numbers amongst the traditional caucus voters, the traditional caucus participants, they're strongly for Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama is making a very aggressive effort to reach out to younger people, many of whom will be on college recess January 3, when the caucus takes place.
PILGRIM: That's an interesting time. You know, Clinton has a very interesting strategy in Iowa also. It's a sort of buddy system to take experienced caucus goers with novices to team them up and also to talk about putting transportation and child care in place for the maximum participation. Reasonable strategy, at 28 percent, is there anything to worry about, Errol.
ERROL LOUIS, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS: She's got plenty to worry about. Anybody attempting a strategy like that, I mean to go back to Obama for a minute, to get kids to come out, number one they might be on break as Robert points out but number two, this is not what most Americans think of as voting. This is not you get something under your door, you see a TV commercial, you think about it, you talk with your friends and make a vote anonymously and private. You stand in a gymnasium and you shuffle across that gymnasium to stand behind a candidate with all your neighbors looking on. It can go on for hours. It's not for the faint-hearted. It tends to reward candidates and campaigns that are disciplined and full of disciplined union workers. That's why so many presidential campaigns have died in those cornfields out in Iowa. That's what happened to Howard Dean four years ago.
PILGRIM: You know Robert Zimmerman, we have to give him credit because he was said this would be a tight one and he said this months ago so we give you full credit.
ZIMMERMAN: Appreciate that.
PILGRIM: Edwards is the only democratic candidate to visit all 99 counties and he had a strong showing four years ago.
ED ROLLINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: He came in second four years ago. This is his drill. If he does not win here or very, very close second, his campaign is over. And I think he's known that from the beginning. He has a certain appeal there, he knows the state well and I think to a certain extent, you know one of the things that people don't understand about the caucus, a good testify definition of it, it also happens to be football night. It's the Orange Bowl. It's the earliest it's ever been. You've never gone through Christmas and New Year's. There may be a fatigue factor. People may not want to see commercials. There's a history in Iowa of shaking the process of up and people making very late decisions. I think this is a very competitive race and I think this will be very exciting.
PILGRIM: Let's look at the republicans, and we have another poll. This is ABC News/"The Washington Post" poll on Iowa republicans, voters, we have let's see, Romney 28 percent, Huckabee 24 percent, Thompson at 15 percent, Giuliani at 13 percent, and McCain at 16. Huckabee, we give you credit, Ed, you said Huckabee would be a major contender.
ROLLINS: He is and his campaign is different. First of all, Romney spent over $4 million in advertising there already. I don't think Huckabee spent $10 up to this point in time. He's now starting to spend a little bit. He's really is tied into the churches there and he's devoted his time and energy. He's the same situation, if he doesn't come in first or second, the campaign is probably over for him but it may be over for a lot of others. The reality here is that if Romney wins it, Romney moves on to New Hampshire and probably wins that and becomes a very viable candidate for the nomination. If Huckabee shakes him up, and beats him there or comes at a close second, the whole thing could be shaken up.
The serious question is Giuliani, who is not going to score any points in either Iowa or New Hampshire, maybe not even Michigan, he's waiting 21 days, 24 days before he has a chance to win some delegates, may be putting himself in jeopardy.
PILGRIM: That's a tough gamble. Just one more point, Huckabee is a sort of core conservative, isn't he?
ROLLINS: Absolutely.
PILGRIM: Gun control, anti-abortion.
ROLLINS: He's a former Baptist minister. He was governor for ten and a half years. I mean he has more experience than anybody in this field of really running something and he's chairman of the governor's conference so he's unknown nationally, but once he gets known, he's a very, very effective communicator.
ZIMMERMAN: It's also interesting to note that in Iowa and New Hampshire Iowa gave Pat Robertson a great vote when he participated in the Iowa caw caucuses and Pat Buchanan beat George Bush, Sr. in New Hampshire.
ROLLINS: And George Bush, Sr. beat Ronald Reagan.
ZIMMERMAN: That's right. So there's a strong evangelical conservative religious base that Huckabee can enjoy. The two things to remember about the Iowa caucuses that make this such a unique situation and so hard to poll, of course if you're a candidate in the caucus, does not get 15 percent, you get to vote again and the other point is people who are registered independents can participate in either party. They just have to register either democrat or republican when they in fact go to the caucuses, and independents will be interesting to watch.
PILGRIM: Interesting. Let's go to New Hampshire and we'll start with the democrats and take a look at these numbers, they're really interesting. Here we go, Clinton, we have it at 36 percent. Now, this is a real losing strength, it was at 43 previously. We have Obama at 22, Edwards 13, and Richardson now. New Hampshire was a great, you know, Bill Clinton was the comeback kid after New Hampshire. It's a good state for the Clintons, and we're seeing a really nice lead there. Robert?
ZIMMERMAN: I think a good lead but you have to also factor in at this early stage what the result, Iowa will have an impact. New Hampshire takes place five days after the Iowa vote. This is going to be a follow-up to that and some fallout from the caucus votes in Iowa, but what's interesting about Hillary Clinton is that, while she's certainly holding her support in Iowa and she's staying at 26 percent and she's been leading out of the last 12 polls, led in 11 in Iowa, in New Hampshire, there is a change there, even though she still has a strong lead there's a shift of support. Once again, a state where you have to watch that independent vote which will be very critical. Independents gave John McCain the victory over Bush Jr. And it could be decisive in the democratic campaign.
PILGRIM: The Obama campaign is going door to door, I guess 800 people knocking on doors over the weekend. It's a very intensive push on a very personal level. Do you think this will work?
LOUIS: It makes sense. I mean as Robert said, this is one of the few states, again this is not like most of the rest of the country, independents can vote in primaries in New Hampshire and pick the republican primary and pick the democratic primary and so it will reward or it can reward somebody like Obama who all along has been suffering because he's not a die-hard ideological democrat, and New Hampshire has a history of going for people who don't show that hard ideological edge. So Obama I think is going to put a lot of chips on New Hampshire because he, like a lot of the other candidates, is looking for an early victory before he gets blown out. The media will play a big role in all of us.
PILGRIM: Let's look at republicans and get Ed Rollins' thought on this. We have Romney at 33 percent, McCain at 18, Giuliani at 16, Paul at 8 and Thompson at 4. Romney, I guess, spending huge amounts ...
ROLLINS: Romney spent a huge amount of money but he's also the neighboring governor. People know him well in that state and obviously this is a do or die state for him. If for some reason he did not win there, he's going to have a long, hard battle after that. I think if he wins Iowa and once again, I said he and Huckabee are battling out there, but if Huckabee upsets him and gets some momentum he may be moved from the bottom of the pack. But I think the more important question is if Romney does not win New Hampshire, then I think he's going to have a long, hard road but more important, Thompson and Giuliani if they don't show well, if they're not second, third, you know, in that first tier, they're going to have a long, hard road, too.
PILGRIM: We have McCain in second place in New Hampshire.
ROLLINS: I think if John does not win New Hampshire, because he won it in 2000, his race for all practical purposes is over. He's got a two-state strategy. It's New Hampshire and South Carolina. New Hampshire he's not doing as well up there because a lot of people think that supported him last that he basically made his bed with Bush the last year or two and for that reason, they sort of punish him a little bit.
PILGRIM: All right. We're going to take a quick break with our panel. We'll be back in a minute and have the hot topic on the campaign trail. First, a reminder, vote in tonight's poll and here it is, have the presidential candidates from either party offered voters real solutions to the problems facing middle class Americans? Yes or no? Cast your vote at LouDobbs.com. We'll be back in a minute. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PILGRIM: We are back with our panel, thanks for being here. Let's look at this issue, big burning campaign issue, and a CBS poll of Iowa republicans on immigration and the question is illegal immigration a serious problem in Iowa. 87 percent said serious. What do you think about that, Robert?
ZIMMERMAN: Well, I think it's so significant, not just republicans, I think for democrats and for the nation at large. This is a symbol of a government that has just failed its people, and whether it's the illegal immigration crisis, global warming, the fact that we have an energy crisis and no energy plan, it's become a symbol of another crisis of the government has no plan to address. So I think it's going to have a very profound impact and very frankly, the public has got to demand action from its candidates in both parties.
PILGRIM: We saw a lot of fallout from the Hillary Clinton trip up on the alien driver's licenses. It's clearly a big point for democrats also, Errol.
LOUIS: Yes. The mood changed in the country. There are probably a lot of Lou Dobbs viewers out there actually who have been seeing chaos on the south western border and who see a smaller version of that in Iowa, and sort of put one and one together and say look, this is something the nation's got to deal with and republican candidates have jumped all over this. They're eager to run on it, eager to come forward with a tough line. We'll see how well it works for them after the primary season. For now it's a hot burner.
ZIMMERMAN: They're being called Lou Dobbs voters now by both parties. ROLLINS: Equally important, next to the war it's the most important issue in Iowa as the war is everywhere. It's forced people like Romney and Giuliani, who took great pride in sort of having sanctuary cities or states when they were governor and you would think Giuliani would have put a fence out of the city and kept out any illegal immigrants by his new policies so I think to a certain extent, it's forced them to change dramatically because they know how sensitive this is.
PILGRIM: It was quite a reversal. You know I really have to ask you Ed, we have a debate coming up this Wednesday in St. Petersburg, Florida, on CNN/You Tube. It's the CNN/You Tube debate and republicans are not that good with this format. It's very informal.
ROLLINS: We'll find out. I think it's a tremendous opportunity and tremendous forum and I think after the last democratic debate and some republicans didn't want to play this game, clearly understand the power that's out there today, both in CNN and the young people that watch You Tube and what have you. I think it's a very important debate and a good place to show it.
ZIMMERMAN: You know what's great about it, the concept itself allows the public to invade almost or eave eavesdrop on a restricted men's club. When you watch those candidates up there, it's like a private cocktail party.
ROLLINS: It's tough to make an issue out of a snowball in Florida.
ZIMMERMAN: Well let me tell you, where else can you find candidates who are going to debate the validity of global warming or whether evolution is a real theory. I mean these people ...
LOUIS: You know what will be interesting? Normally, if you don't like the question in a debate, especially with republicans, you can turn it around and attack the media. It's always good for a cheer at home. You can't turn around and attack Mrs. Jones, who took the time to make this little video and is earnestly asking the question. I think that's one of the reasons these folks are not eager to get into that kind of a debate.
PILGRIM: We of course love it here at CNN.
ZIMMERMAN: It's a great format.
PILGRIM: Well, gentlemen, thank you for your comments tonight. Ed Rollins, Errol Louis, and Robert Zimmerman, thanks very much.
Don't forget to stay with CNN for the next debate, which we've been talking about, the republican/You Tube debate, Wednesday on the 28th, 8:00 p.m. eastern. The republican candidates will square off live from St. Petersburg, Florida. Once again you the viewer will ask the questions. Now you do have time to submit yours. Go to CNN.com.
We also would you to vote in tonight's poll if you can, have the presidential candidates from either party offered voters real solutions to the problems facing middle class Americans? Yes or no? Cast your vote at LouDobbs.com and we'll bring you the results from that poll in a few minutes.
Also still ahead, we'll have more of your thoughts and the results of today's poll. Also, heroes, it's our weekly tribute to the men and women who bravely served this country. Stay with us.
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PILGRIM: Now the results of tonight's poll; 95 percent of you say the presidential candidates do not offer voters real solutions to the problems facing middle class Americans.
Finally tonight, heroes, it's our weekly tribute to the brave men and women that serve this country in uniform. And tonight, we introduce you to Army Reservist Staff Sergeant Jason Fetty. Sergeant Fetty is one of a handful of soldiers to be awarded the silver star for bravery since the 9/11 attacks. Jamie McIntyre has the story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And awarded the Silver Star.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He saved countless lives, including my own.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Army Reservist Jason Fetty, a pharmacy technician from Parkersburg, West Virginia was in Afghanistan last February at a ceremony dedicating a new hospital emergency room.
SGT. JASON FETTY, U.S. ARMY RESERVIST: All the doctors who we knew very well come running out of the hospital. The suicide bomber was in front of me.
MCINTYRE: Sergeant Fetty was face-to-face with a man in a hospital coat. He knew he was all that was standing between the bomber and a crowd of local dignitaries, civilians and U.S. troops.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Staff Sergeant Fetty encountered and challenged the suicide bomber by blocking and preventing his movement toward the assembled crowd with complete disregard for his own life.
FETTY: Suicide bombers are our primary threat so that's the first thing we're looking for.
MCINTYRE: So you hit him in the kneecap and the guy gets up and still tried to come out?
FETTY: Yes.
MCINTYRE: What does that tell you?
GETTY: It tells me that I'm in a lot of trouble.
MCINTYRE: It took a few more shots to take the man down. It was then Fetty saw him reach for his detonator and he dove for cover. There were injuries but no deaths. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.voxant.com
