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Pakistan in Crisis; Iowa Countdown Continues

Aired December 29, 2007 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

DREW GRIFFIN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Drew Griffin. We have a lot to cover this hour. Let's get right to it. We'll start with Pakistan, where a new photo is raising new questions about the death of Benazir Bhutto. The image from Pakistani television appears to show a man pointing a gun at Bhutto from right next to her vehicle. You can take a look. We've circled it for you. He's the one wearing sunglasses.
It's adding to the emotional debate and a host of conspiracy theories over how Bhutto really did die. Pakistan's government stands by its contention that Bhutto died from a fractured skull, not a bullet wound and not shrapnel from the suicide bombing. The government also says there's no objection if Bhutto supporters or her family want to exhume her body to investigate, even though that seems very unlikely right now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAVED IQBAL CHEEMA, INTERIOR MINISTRY SPOKESMAN: If (INAUDIBLE) says she has seen the bullet wounds, if they say that, you know, that - I mean, she died of the bullet wounds, we don't mind. The people's party leadership wants, the body can be exhumed post-mortem. They're most welcome. But we give you what the facts are.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRIFFIN: Meantime, the sporadic and deadly violence continues. The government says as least 38 people have died in rioting. It's happening in several cities since Bhutto's assassination. Two days after her death, Benazir Bhutto supporters are accusing the Pakistani government of mounting a massive cover-up. Matthew Chance filed this report from the scene of Bhutto's killing.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Bullets, a suicide bombing, or an accidental blow to the head? Conflicting accounts of how Benazir Bhutto died. Witnesses spoke of a gruesome scene.

SHERRY REHMAN, BHUTTO AIDE: She did fall, slumped right into the car the minute she was shot. And there was a huge amount of blood. As I said, her blood soaked more than one vehicle and several people's clothes. So she was bleeding by the gallon.

CHANCE (on camera): Well, this is the exact place where Benazir Bhutto's life was so suddenly snatched away. You can see that people have scattered flower petals on the tarmac and have come out to pay their respects. (voice-over): Thousands came to this park in Rawalpindi to hear her speak. She finished addressing the crowd and was already leaving when she decided to show her face once more. It proved to be a tragic mistake. Hidden among her supporters, a gunman steps out, firing at her vehicle, then detonating a suicide bomb. Sherry Rehman, Bhutto's close aide was one car behind and also injured in the attack.

REHMAN: She was also shot from the left. We heard three shots being fired in the air. We all ducked for cover as we've been trained to do now after all these attacks. And as soon as we ducked, the -- we heard the blast, which completely lifted up the car. And all the doors and windows shattered.

CHANCE (on camera): Shattered, too, hopes of Benazir Bhutto rescuing Pakistan from the ethnic, religious and sectarian chaos that has engulfed it. Well, all this is now, of course, a crime scene, where more than 20 other people were killed along with Benazir Bhutto. Pakistan's government is pointing at a radical Islamist warlord linked to al Qaeda and the Taliban. But amongst Benazir's supporters, there's anger at the authorities that more was not done by them to protect her.

(voice-over): There's particular fury at official suggestions Bhutto died after slamming her head against her car and not by shrapnel or gunshots, as her supporters maintain.

REHMAN: This is an offense to a grieving nation and family and friends because she was shot. I have seen the bullet wounds at the back of her head where it went in, where it came out. To say that she was concussed from the sunroof is dangerous nonsense because they're absolving themselves of responsibility for providing her better security when we kept asking her to do so.

GRIFFIN: And in a shocked Pakistan, millions are looking for someone to blame.

Matthew Chance, CNN, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: Well, for the United States, the stakes in nuclear-armed Pakistan could hardly be higher. The Musharraf regime has its flaws. But widely it's viewed as Washington's best worst option there in a nation under threat from al Qaeda and other Islamic militants.

CNN's Ed Henry reporting from Crawford, Texas on that.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Signing a condolence book at the Pakistani Embassy in Washington, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wrote Benazir Bhutto was a woman of courage and champion of democracy.

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: The way to honor her memory is to continue the democratic process in Pakistan, so that the democracy she so hoped for can emerge.

HENRY: But moving forward will be easier said than done since the U.S. finds itself in a box after supporting President Pervez Musharraf at all cost. Despite questions about whether Pakistan has misused billions of dollars in U.S. aid intended to fight terror.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He had been an absolute, reliable partner in dealing with extremists and radicals.

HENRY: But with Musharraf's grip on his government slipping, the U.S. had recently turned to plan "B," a potential power sharing pact between Bhutto and Musharraf.

In the wake of Bhutto's assassination, the Bush policy is now in disarray. The White House searching for what you might call plan "C," finding someone who can unite a country teetering on the brink.

DANIEL MARKEY, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: And that's the key dynamic to watch right now. And that will determine whether Musharraf and others within the country can move ahead.

HENRY: One option is former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The U.S. had kept its distance because of his connections to Islamist parties, but is now taking another look. Another option could be for the U.S. to scrap the goal of democracy and let Musharraf focus on cracking down on extremists, though U.S. officials insist they are committed to free and fair elections as early as next month.

The least bad option may be the winner of those elections forming a partnership with Musharraf since the U.S. has little choice but to stick with him at this point.

KARL INDERFURTH, FMR. ASST. SECRETARY OF STATE: I think that we ought to look at Musharraf as a continued presence there. And hopefully he will reach out to other democratic leaders in Pakistan. And they can form some form of coalition of moderation, because that's the only way to deal with the extremists that are gaining strength in Pakistan today.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: And Ed Henry joins us now not far from President Bush's ranch near Crawford, Texas. Ed, you know, we've given billions and billions of dollars to Pakistan in aid. Any potential that it could be cut off or would that depend on who is or is not elected if those elections take place?

HENRY: Well, it's a good question. In fact, Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi just today put out a statement declaring that President Bush should cut off all U.S. aid to Pakistan and stop it until Mr. Bush can certify that President Musharraf is actually cooperating in the war on terror.

Now administration officials have long said that's a bad idea, because if you cut off aid right now when things are so unstable you just further destabilize the situation. I think that gives you an idea of the delicate balancing act the Bush administration is dealing with right now. They've stuck with Musharraf for so long. They -- it will be very, very difficult to cut off aid that might only exacerbate a very, very difficult situation, Drew.

GRIFFIN: Yes, looking for that plan "C" as you said in that report. Very tentative right now. Thank you. Ed Henry outside President Bush's ranch or near President Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas.

And tonight at 8:00 Eastern, Pakistan plunged into uncertainty. CNN's special investigations unit going beyond now Bhutto's assassination to ask, has Pakistan become terror central? That is tonight at 8:00 Eastern. And it's only on CNN.

Released today online, a new purported message from al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden. A 56 minute tape came out a few hours ago mainly directed toward Iraq's Sunni population. The speaker on that tape tells the Sunnis not to join tribal councils that are fighting al Qaeda in Iraq.

Also, the speaker threatens Israel, saying that jihad will expand to liberate Palestine. CNN cannot independently verify if the voice on the tape is actually bin Laden. A U.S. counterterror official tells us the government is now examing that tape.

The gloves come off in Iowa. Not surprising when the race is this close between Democrat and Republican presidential nominees. But what is surprising is which GOP rival is slinging some pretty pointed adjectives. CNN's Mary Snow in Des Moines, where there's snow on the ground, but the campaign trail, Mary, is mighty hot.

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It is very hot, Drew. And it's getting heated by the hour. Today, Mike Huckabee, the Republican presidential hopeful, who has said that he wants to run a positive campaign, took direct aim at his Republican rival Mitt Romney. This comes just one day after Mitt Romney released an ad questioning Mike Huckabee's record. Mike Huckabee stopped short of calling Romney dishonest.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE HUCKABEE: I think he's being dishonest about my record and John McCain's and Rudy Giuliani's. And I think he's certainly being dishonest about his own record. When he says that he had the endorsement of the NRA, he did not. When he says he didn't raise taxes in fact, there were $500 million of fees that were raised during his time. When he talks about my record or John McCain's, I mean, he's making up stuff.

(END VIDEO CLIOP)

SNOW: Huckabee saying that he doesn't feel he's being negative, just - you know, he's setting the record straight.

As for the Romney camp, of course, they're fighting back, disputing some of those facts saying, yes, Mitt Romney did raise fees while he was governor of Massachusetts, but disputed the number that Mike Huckabee put out there. He had said $500 million. Romney camp is saying $250.

But basically said Mike Huckabee's record is his record. It's a troubling record but the facts about his tax hike and spending binges are true. And it goes on to say the differences many Republicans have with his positions are very real.

This comes as this race has really been heating up in these final days. Mike Huckabee, to give you a sense of just how heated this is becoming, has had supporters from Arkansas come here to Iowa. And they have been trailing Mitt Romney on the campaign trail today and expect to do so throughout the weekend.

As we get closer to the caucus, Huckabee saying that they are trying to set the record straight. Mitt Romney had been the frontrunner here. He had a comfortable lead. That, of course, was eroded when Huckabee started surging. He said he's been outspent 20 to 1 and now he's fighting back.

GRIFFIN: Good. So the Arkansas camp trailing Romney to try to clean up some things that he's saying at those campaign stops?

SNOW: Yes. One of the things that they are disputing are these mailers that are going out, pamphlets that people are receiving in the mail. And of course, if you live here in Iowa, you're bombarded with all kinds of ads and mailings.

And Huckabee supporters are saying, you know, some of these things are not true. Of course, the Romney camp is saying, this is all based on fact. It's a lot of back and forth. These final days are really when a lot of these caucus goers are making up their minds. And this is a crucial time for them to make that final decision. So both camps really ramping it up.

GRIFFIN: Mary Snow on a hot trail in a cold place. Thanks for joining us from Des Moines, Iowa, Mary.

SNOW: Sure.

GRIFFIN: If it seems like Republican are on the attack, don't think for a second that Democrats are holding hands and singing folk songs. We're all over that, too. And CNN senior political correspondent Candy Crowley joins us live at 39 after this hour.

And on New Year's Day, catch the game that really matters, the battle of the presidential candidates. All the contenders talking about the most important issues. The economy, the war, immigration. Doesn't matter if you are a Republican, Democrat, Independent. If you are an American, it's the game you can't miss. CNN's ballot bowl we're calling it, beginning at 9:00 a.m. Eastern on New Year's Day.

And don't forget, if you want the most up-to-the-minute political news anywhere, CNNpolitics.com is your one-stop shop. It is the Internet's premier destination for political news. CNNpolitics.com.

Just in, new information on that deadly tiger attack in San Francisco on Christmas Day. CNN has learned that the two survivors left the hospital just moments ago. 17-year-old Carlos Sousa, Jr. was mauled to death after a 350-pound Siberian tiger escaped from its enclosure. The zoo announced today that it will reopen January 3rd. The investigation into the teen's death still wide open.

Well, just how did Benazir Bhutto die? Lots of anger and accusations. But one name at the top of the list. And a family, including two young, innocent children gunned down on Christmas Eve. Today, horrifying new details of that crime.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TIME STAMP: 1816:00

GRIFFIN: After some six years of captivity in the jungles of Colombia, two female hostages will have to wait at least one more day for freedom. Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez negotiated the release of the women and a young boy from leftist rebels. The boy is the result of a relationship with one of the guerrillas holding the women during that time. But Venezuelan chopper pilots are still waiting on directions about where the three are being held, so they can go fly to that spot and retrieve them. Karl Penhaul on the scene at CNN. We will bring that to you as soon as it happens.

Well, it is the question on everyone's mind right now in Pakistan especially. Who is behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto? The answer could have a huge impact on Pakistan's internal politics and its relationship with the U.S.

We want to talk about that with Vali Nasr. He's a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a professor at Tufts University joining us from Salt Lake City. Thank you for joining us, Vali. And we're trying to wade through all these theories about how Benazir Bhutto did die. It's somewhat hard to believe that we don't know how she died, and also hard to believe why it would matter. Can you explain that to us?

VALI NASR, TUFTS UNIVERSITY: Well, we don't know how she died because we don't have the report of an independent investigation. And she was buried very quickly, according to religious tradition, without an autopsy.

Now it matters because when the government, which had been suppressing her, which had sent her into exile, which was trying to prevent her from coming to power says that she did not die of an assassin's bullet or shrapnel, but rather bumped her head. To her supporters, it sounds like they're belittling her murder, belittling her assassination. And they won't accept this fact from what they see to be a tainted source. And that causes a problem.

GRIFFIN: On the question of who did this, certainly many, many different groups wanted her killed. She was under threat from the moment she set foot back in Pakistan from her years in exile. But the Islamic militants that are being blamed for this saying we did not. We would have liked to, but we did not. Who does that leave if they're telling the truth? NASR: Well, Pakistan today is a very divided place. There are people who are pro-Musharraf, who buy the line that al Qaeda was behind it. But Benazir Bhutto herself, her party, her even political rivals are pointing the finger of blame at the government of President Musharraf.

The idea that al Qaeda was behind this plays very well in America in the environment of fear, of terror, etcetera. But it doesn't necessarily - it's not necessarily convincing to Pakistanis who think it's too simple to blame a political murder on al Qaeda, which we know is there. But ultimately, the beneficiary of the death of Benazir Bhutto is the military and President Musharraf in Pakistan, who got rid of the most strong opponent and the chief champion of democracy.

GRIFFIN: Do you believe the government is trying to get to the bottom, the truth of this matter? Or is there more political benefit in leaving it up in doubt?

NASR: If one looked at Pakistan history, there have been many, many political murders and assassinations. None of which have been resolved satisfactorily. In 1988, the president of the country at the time, General Zioha (ph), was killed in an air crash. We still don't know who was behind the bomb that was on board of that plane. More than likely, we will never know who really was behind the murder of Benazir Bhutto.

GRIFFIN: In America we would simply say exhume the body, let's examine it, let's do an X-ray of that skull to see what happened. Why will that not take place?

NASR: Well, first of all, it runs against religious sensibilities.

Secondly, it will create a theater, a comical theater out of her assassination, out of the dignity of her burial, which her followers and her party do not want. They would much rather have the government not said what it said, belittling in their minds her murder and putting pressure now on the party and her family to prove the government wrong.

But I think in all likelihood, we're not going to see a body exhumed, because it's not religiously appropriate to do so. And autopsies are not common culturally in South Asia and Pakistan.

GRIFFIN: And getting back to the issue of government and the government involvement, are the conspiracy theorists thinking that somehow or another the Musharraf government was behind the actual assassination? Or is it more that they were not supplying proper protection for Benazir Bhutto?

NASR: Well, there is a gamut of criticism here. There are those who blame Musharraf for not giving her protection. There are those who believe that Musharraf has been too busy putting lawyers and judges in prison, rather than hunting terrorists, giving them a free reign to do what they did.

And there are those, including Benazir Bhutto after her first - the first assassination attempt against her who said that the government or former members of the intelligence agencies were directly responsible for those acts.

Now given that in Pakistan there's a great deal of suspicion about the hidden hand of intelligence agencies and their relationships with extremists, this kind of conspiracy theory carries a lot of weight.

GRIFFIN: Vali Nasr from Salt Lake City, thank you so much for joining us here on CNN, sir. Thank you.

NASR: Thank you.

GRIFFIN: Well, the high cost of the Hollywood writers strike and the people who are paying the price, that's ahead.

Plus this...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I thought they were just old papers to, you know, throw away. And then I started seeing all the fancy scrollwork with the orange scroll and one says $50,000. The other one says $15,000. I go, whoa, wait a minute.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRIFFIN: Wait a minute is right. A guy gets more, lots more, than he bargained for all at a garage sale.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TIME STAMP: 1824:22

GRIFFIN: That is a dangerous scene in western Pennsylvania. It happened on Friday. Investigators looking into what caused this train wreck. Two of the cars filled with ethanol caught fire. All told, there were nine cars off the tracks. Nobody injured there.

To Washington state now on the scene of a brutal family slaughter. Jailers have one of the suspects on a suicide watch after he told "The Seattle Times" that he's sorry about the Christmas Eve deaths. Here's James Lynch from our affiliate KCPQ.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JAMES LYNCH, KCPQ NEWS CORRESPONDENT: They were there, the Anderson children. 5-year-old Olivia and 3-year-old Nathan. They watched as their mother and father were killed. And they were the last to die.

DAN SATTERBERG, KING COUNTY PROSECUTOR: We allege that McEnroe spoke to each child and apologized for what he was about to do. The evidence will show that McEnroe then shot each child in the head from very close range.

LYNCH: In a morning news conference, King County prosecuting attorney Dan Satterberg laid out the evidence against Michelle Anderson and Joe McEnroe. He says the couple, seen here in exclusive Q-13 FOX News video, walked into the house and shot Wayne and Judy Anderson in the head.

When her brother Scott Anderson arrived with his family, Michelle and McEnroe are accused of shooting him, too, then his wife Erica. She managed to get to a phone and call 911. But before she could say a word, McEnroe ripped the phone from the wall and shot her two times. This is the tape of the dispatch sending deputies to the Anderson home.

OPERATOR: The address is 1806 346th Avenue, Northeast, the Anderson residence. We can hear a lot of yelling in the background, but the -- says it sounds more like a party than actually any kind of a heated argument. We left a message when we called back.

LYNCH: We now know deputies never made it to the house. An investigation is planned to see if the deputies acted appropriately. After the shootings, in an evolving plan to avoid detection, prosecutors say Anderson and McEnroe drove north toward Canada, then turned around and drove south toward Oregon. Then, for some unknown reason, returned to the scene of the crime. Again, this is Q-13 FOX News exclusive video. Later, they confessed to the murders.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The defendants Michelle Anderson and Joseph McEnroe drove up to this scene in their pickup truck. They claimed initially to be unaware of the murders. After being separated and interviewed at length, the two were eventually booked into jail.

SATTERBERG: The loss is profound and immeasurable. It impacts not only those who knew the Andersons, but all of us who desire to live in a peaceful community.

LYNCH (on camera): Now if convicted, Anderson and McEnroe face life in prison without the possibility of parole or death by lethal injection. The King County, Washington prosecuting attorney has 30 days to make that decision.

James Lynch, CNN, Seattle.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: The future of Pakistan, what now following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto? We'll show you what residents are saying in the wake of her death.

And why it's important for the presidential candidates to be the second choice of Iowa voters as well as their first. Live to Des Moines. That's also coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)



TIME STAMP: 1830:23

GRIFFIN: Here's the latest now on the crisis in Pakistan. The government in Islamabad says at least 38 people have died in political violence since the killing of Benazir Bhutto. Other accounts putting that number much higher.

In major cities today, rioters set fire to factories, buildings, and vehicles, and have been battling government troops. Bhutto supporters rejecting the government's version of the cause of death.

A top aide who saw the attack Thursday is telling CNN that she clearly saw a bullet wound in the back of Bhutto's head. The al Qaeda linked militant accused by Pakistan of orchestrating the killing is denying any involvement.

And amid calls for an international probe of the matter, the government in Islamabad says it can handle the investigation itself. The White House calling on Pakistan today to investigate this killing thoroughly.

So what are everyday and maybe more moderate Pakistanis saying in the wake of Bhutto's death? Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy, a freelance journalist, filmmaker, a native of Pakistan, is joining us now by phone from Karachi. What are you seeing and hearing?

SHARMEEN OBAID-CHINOY: Drew, people are very confused about why Bhutto was killed and in the manner she was killed, because the government's account is not matching the account given by the Pakistan People's Party or given by some of the doctors early on when she had just -- her body had just been released.

So people are presented why the government's version is not matching that of the Pakistan People's Party. What does the government have to hide is the question that's on everyone's mind.

And of course, a lot of Pakistan People's Party supporters are frustrated that an international investigation is not taking place into the death of Bhutto.

Ordinary Pakistanis here in the city of Karachi, of course, have other problems. They don't have access to food. They don't have access to water, fuel stations. The rioters have forced shops to close down. So people also worried about how they're going to go about their daily lives now that this political fallout has taken place.

GRIFFIN: And Sharmeen, Benazir Bhutto, she was somewhat of a polarizing figure in Pakistan. But in death, is she becoming more popular? And is that making Musharraf even less popular than he already was?

OBAID-CHINOY: Benazir Bhutto has always been a polarizing figure, you're right. And even in her death, actually, she's been a polarizing figure because there are a lot of people, especially amongst the secular majority here who question her death and why she was playing with her life.

And in that, the country's future. Because if she had a bulletproof car, why was she out of the bulletproof car waving to the crowd? She had been addressing a crowd for the last three hours. She had exited safely. Why then did she play with her life, get out of the sunroof and wave to a crowd? That is also a question on people's minds. They feel that she has cheated her own nation. And she knew the security risks that were there. So a lot of people are questioning why she herself played with her life.

GRIFFIN: Yes, that's a question I had almost immediately after it happened because she was questioning the security being provided by the Musharraf government. And yet, seemingly flaunting the security right in the face of all of these people who came to the rally. There seemed to be very little security at all. She put herself in this place.

OBAID-CHINOY: She did. And you know, there were four exits from when Bhutto left. And the exit that she left, the back gate exit, had police over there, had her own private security entourage over there. And she had indeed exited the building. She had exited.

She had gotten into her car. She should have left because the morning newspaper the day she died was full of stories about credible threats against Ms. Bhutto's life. And the fact that she was out there addressing such a large crowd. She herself knew she was wearing a bulletproof vest. We could all see that when she exited the building.

She knew, obviously, that she was a target. And that she herself - she put herself out there in many ways because none of her security team could have advised her to come out of the sunroof and expose her torso and her head, which is a clear security breach.

GRIFFIN: From your view on the ground there in Karachi, does this crisis pass and do the elections take place on January 8th?

OBAID-CHINOY: I was out on the streets today speaking to a lot of people. And they were hoping that the elections take place because they want an end to this crisis. Pakistan has been embroiled in a crisis for the last four months. When it comes to the chief justice and there were riots with the lawyers and now this. And people just want an end because people's lives, businesses haven't been able to go on normally. And really Pakistan's economy and the people, the ordinary people are suffering because of the political fallout that has been taking place since very early this year.

GRIFFIN: Thank you for joining us, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy speaking to us from Karachi, Pakistan. We thank you for your insight. And we'll most likely be talking to you more through the coming days, Sharmeen. Thank you so much.

Tonight at 8:00 Eastern, Pakistan plunged into uncertainty. The CNN special investigations unit going beyond Bhutto's assassination and asking this question. Has Pakistan become terror central? It's tonight at 8:00 Eastern here on CNN. When we talk about the whole U.S., Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic pack of presidential contenders. But in Iowa, she's in a three-way tie for first place. And this is one case where being second isn't a bad place to be at all. Let's crunch some numbers, shall we?

CNN senior political correspondent Candy Crowley in Des Moines. Candy, why does second place matter? And how are the candidates trying to game it out?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, second place, first all, means two things. That is it's always been said that there are three tickets out of Iowa. That is, first place, second place, third place, when all the counting is done.

But there's another thing, a second choice that's really interesting on the Democratic side. If you have a caucus and you go in and stand up for a candidate, unless 15% of the people in that caucus, let's say for Hillary Clinton if she doesn't get 15% of that caucus, that group of people has to pick someone else. They have to have a second choice. And then they could choose undecided, but they could go to another candidate.

So the fact of the matter is that inside those caucuses, there are changing votes as the night goes on. And that, obviously, makes a different. So while these candidates are campaigning, they're kind of eyeing each other's support, trying to figure out, listen, whose support, let's say, Joe Biden at some point does not get 15% of a caucus in a precinct. He can then, you know, his people, within that, let's say, ten votes, can go to other candidates.

Now when the Hillary Clinton campaign looks at this, they say, well, people who vote for Biden want experience. They'll naturally come to Clinton. The Obama people say, look, Hillary Clinton is the best known person in this state. If they wanted to go for Hillary, they already would. They're looking for something new and that's Obama.

So you know, you can parse this a lot of ways. But it's why, within those caucuses, you go in and you have a second choice because sometimes that really matters.

GRIFFIN: This is something that's interesting about Iowa because there appears to be a number of voters who haven't made up their minds yet. And it's such a personal involvement issue to go into these caucuses. Do really, do undecideds really go into these living rooms without knowledge of who they are going to vote for? And do they break one way or another? And how do they decide?

CROWLEY: Absolutely. I mean, I think there are a couple of things. I think there are people who are undecided right now that will make up their minds before they go into those caucuses. What's going to sway them? Well, that's why they're making these final arguments across the state. All of these candidates getting to as many places as they possibly can.

What they're believing, and if you listen to the talk right now, it's about electability because a lot of these candidates, particularly on the Democratic side, think, listen, when it all boils down to it, we want to win the White House. Who's got the best shot?

So we've heard a lot of back and forth between the Democratic candidates about who they think is the most electable. Yes, there are undecideds, who go into these caucuses. And then they listen to their fellow Iowans try to persuade them as to who they should caucus for.

So there's so many unknowns at this point that while we look at the polls and say, listen, it's a three-way tie, we really don't know because not only do we not know who might turn out on caucus night, we really don't know which way those undecideds are going to break.

GRIFFIN: Candy, thank you so much. We look forward, as you do, I'm sure, to the last few days there in Iowa. You can come on back.

CROWLEY: Absolutely.

GRIFFIN: Thanks, Candy.

Well, on New Year's Day, we're going to have a show that we wanted to tell you about. It's catch the game that really matters. It's the battle of presidential candidates. All the contenders talking about issues like the economy, the war, immigration, the game we call it. You can't miss it. It's CNN's ballot bowl. It begins at 9:00 a.m. Eastern on New Year's Day.

And you asked for it. Well, you got it. Drought-stricken parts of the southeast getting dumped on. And election chaos that's happening in Kenya. Violence erupting there as the final vote count continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TIME STAMP: 1842:44

GRIFFIN: It is pouring in the Southeast. A storm dumped over an inch of rain on north Georgia yesterday. Flash flooding leaving some roads under water. Another storm system expected to bring major rainfall to the region tonight and tomorrow. Just a drop in the bucket, though, with the state's severe drought expected to hold steady or worsen in the new year.

Meanwhile, wheels up once again. Air travel in the Midwest returning somewhat to normal. After yesterday's big snowstorm that left homebound holiday travelers in the lurch, there were only a couple dozen flights at Chicago's O'Hare Airport canceled today. That compares with nearly 300 flights scrapped on Friday. Reynolds Wolf in the CNN Severe Weather Center. We really needed that heavy rain we got here in Atlanta, Reynolds, but still going to be a dry year at the end of the day.

(WEATHER REPORT)

GRIFFIN: Those are real volunteers up there shoveling out that stadium? WOLF: I think they are our die-hard fans, no question about it. I mean, I love football, but I don't know if I'd be out there shoveling like -- look at this guy.

GRIFFIN: I think this guy should just sit on the snow. That's what we do at Bears Stadium.

WOLF: That's right here. You know, those Bear fans, they are hard core. But it's heartwarming thing to see them out there. They love their team. Win or lose, they're out there to do the best for their guys.

GRIFFIN: There you go. Thanks, Reynolds.

WOLF: You bet.

GRIFFIN: Going global now. Voter unrest. It's happening in Kenya. We're getting pictures coming into us from Kenya's capital of Nairobi. Riots broke out across the country after election officials announced a delay in releasing results from Thursday's presidential vote. Both sides are claiming victory and accusing the other of vote rigging.

Six charity workers convicted in Chad of trying to kidnap 103 children. They're back in France. Now they were transferred under an accord between those two countries. A Chadian court sentenced them to eight years of hard labor. There is no hard labor in France. The French justice system will adapt their sentences there.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki headed to Britain today for medical treatment. Reportedly, he fell ill during high level meetings with the U.S. officials this week. A source close to Maliki says the prime minister is going to undergo a standard medical check-up he's been postponing for months.

The high cost of the Hollywood writers strike - it's going beyond the late night comedy shows.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you watching the clock and wondering, you know, how much longer? Are our days numbered?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Absolutely. You know, the longer it takes, truly the longer it's going to take.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRIFFIN: We will introduce you to some people who are paying the price.

And it went from a sweet story to a shocking scam. The lengths one mom allegedly went to for Hannah Montana tickets.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TIME STAMP: 1849:34 GRIFFIN: If you're tired of all the late night reruns, we have some good news for you. The production company for David Letterman and Craig Ferguson struck their own deals with the Writers Guild. That means both shows will go back on the air Wednesday with full writing staffs and hopefully fresh material. No more pulling punchlines.

The writers hit the picket lines back in early November, demanding a bigger share of revenue. Jay Leno, Conan O'Brien and Jimmy Kimmel return to the air next week without writers.

The writers strike really smarts for people who depend on the TV and film industry. Economic losses said to be topping about a billion dollars now.

CNN's Kareen Wynter reports writers and studios, they're not the only ones paying a price.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KAREEN WYNTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): "American Gangster", "The Great Debaters", "Charlie Wilson's War."

TOM HANKS, ACTOR: It's tradition, mostly.

WYNTER: Highly acclaimed films now gracing the silver screen. You can credit many of the set designs to Hollywood's biggest prop houses, places like History for Hire, in the business of keeping tinseltown in business while helping to drive Los Angeles' economy.

PAM ELYEA, HISTORY FOR HIRE PROP HOUSE: These are all props that we used in "Platoon."

WYNTER: But owner Pam Elyea says that they are feeling the fallout from the contentious writers strike. A fight between writers and the studios over issues such as compensation for new media.

Are you watching the clock and wondering, you know, how much longer? Are our days numbered?

ELYEA: Absolutely. You know, the longer it takes, truly the longer it's going to take. What's most upsetting to me is that they're just not talking.

WYNTER: Elyea says business is down by 40%. The prop house survived the last writers strike in the '80s, but Elyea says now there's more at stake. 80% of their business comes from the studios.

ELYEA: We had 18 employees. We had to lay off six employees at the very onset of it. So that was cut our payroll by 25%. We cut our overtime.

WYNTER: They're not the only ones slicing salaries. Shari Underwood of Jackson Shrub Supply showed us their overcrowded warehouse of floral arrangements that decorate famous sets. They've lost half their business. SHARI UNDERWOOD, JACKSON SHRUB SUPPLY: I just hope everything comes out OK, because, like I said, this is the majority of our business is motion picture and television. They've got to get back to the tables.

WYNTER: That can't happen soon enough. L.A. County officials say the eight-week-old strike has already cost the city at least $1 billion.

JACK KYSER, L.A. CO. ECONOMIC DEV. CORP.: The number goes up each week that the strike goes on. A lot of uncertainty because no new negotiations have been set.

WYNTER: County officials say many restaurants catering and transportation companies are also suffering. Any business really that works closely with the studios.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How much is this one?

WYNTER: A handful of local prop houses held a recent garage sale just to earn a few extra bucks this holiday.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's so cool. Look at it.

WYNTER: Knowing time is money.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hey, I may be poor but I've got my pride.

WYNTER: And since contract talks have collapsed, there's no telling when the next paycheck will come in.

Kareen Wynter, CNN, North Hollywood.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: A Hannah Montana ticket contest turned upside down after organizers found out a mom made up the winning story credited to her 6-year-old daughter. Byron Harris of WFAA explains how this scam fell apart.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BYRON HARRIS, WFAA NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Club Libby Lu stores across the country sell rock star dreams. Little girls who walk in are sprinkled with fantasy dust and make a wish. To help them become more like Hannah Montana, girls can get secret celebrity makeovers.

And when a 6-year-old Garland girl came in with her mom, she was presented with a surprise makeover. Then came an even bigger shock. Her essay won her four tickets and airfare to a Hannah Montana concert.

Priscilla Ceballos did most of the talking for her daughter. She laid out a tragedy of a father killed in Iraq, an Army sergeant named Jonathan Menguvar of Garland, who died on April 17th of this year. But for those who sadly track local Iraq casualties, that was an unfamiliar name. A check with Department of Defense records showed that no one of that name was killed in Iraq on that day. In fact, no one of that name has died in Iraq. The mother would not talk about it.

HARRIS: There's no person that was killed in action.

PRISCILLA CEBALLOS, MOTHER OF WINNER: I don't need -- I don't...

HARRIS: There was no such person.

CEBALLOS: I don't need to be...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's a Hannah Montana tour pack.

HARRIS: Club Libby Lu sponsored the essay contest. The company now says the statement about the father killed in Iraq is false. They say they never dreamed of having to do background checks on essays from little girls.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: Can you believe that? Club Libby Lu says the Hannah Montana prize is now going to another little girl. And they've declined to name the new winner.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What goes around, comes around. You do the right thing, it balances out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRIFFIN: A good story for you. Better than "Antiques Road Show." We've got an amazing case of a good garage sale karma. You might never look at used beat up old file cabinets the same way again.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TIME STAMP: 1857:43

GRIFFIN: A Massachusetts man, he paid $2.00 for a beat up filing cabinet last summer. Just a few weeks ago, he finally looked inside and made a grand find. Actually, more like $100,000 find. Here's Michelle Relliford from our affiliate WHDH.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRED PIETROWSKY, FOUND $100K IN STOCKS, BONDS: Fifty thousand dollars at 8 percent interest since 1988.

MICHELLE RELLIFORD, WHDH NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): (INAUDIBLE) this bunch of stocks and bonds is valued well over $100,000, maybe much more. Now in the hands of Fred Pietrowksi of Laurence. He paid $2.00 for this file cabinet at a yard sale and found a hidden treasure. F. PIETROWSKI: I thought they were just old papers, you know, to throw away. And then I started seeing all this fancy scroll work with the orange scroll. And one says $50,000. The other one says $15,000. I go, whoa, wait a minute.

RELLIFORD: They're stocks and bonds from AT&T, Bell South, and the James River Corporation. Included in this pricy pile, the release papers that would make the finder a pretty wealthy keeper.

F. PIETROWSKI: Irrevocable stock power transfer. And they're all signed by the owners. So whoever puts their name on the top, they own them.

RELLIFORD: This former Eagle Scout and Navy vet says he never thought twice about keeping the money.

F. PIETROWSKI: We've had Christmases where it's hard to put food on the table. And to take money away from somebody, especially if it was their grandparents or something, just not right.

LINDA PIETROWSKI, WIFE: I would think these people would like to get back what belongs to them, too. If we can find out who it belongs to.

RELLIFORD: So far, no one matched up. But he plans to keep looking, believing in a higher reward.

F. PIETROWSKI: What goes around comes around. You do the right thing, it balances out.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GRIFFIN: Sure beats that Hannah Montana story, doesn't it? Well, the stocks and bonds bear the surnames Mcphee, Reamer, Sullivan, and Crowley. Listen up, if that's your name and you're in the Lawrence, Massachusetts area, you might want to do a little detective work on that.

From the CNN Center in Atlanta, I'm Drew Griffin. Today's headlines in 30 seconds. "THIS YEAR AT WAR" starts right now.

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