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Decision Day in Iowa; Oil Hovers Near $100 High; San Francisco Zoo Reopens; Person of Interest Sought in Hiker Disappearance

Aired January 03, 2008 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: It wasn't a fluke: oil hits $100 a barrel for the second day in a row. We're going to take stock of the trading this hour.
ROB MARCIANO, CNN ANCHOR: And we're in search of a north Georgia hiker missing, lost, or worse, on Blood Mountain. Police also want to track down a person of interest.

Hello, everybody. I'm Rob Marciano at the CNN world headquarters in Atlanta. Don Lemon has the day off.

PHILLIPS: And I'm Kyra Phillips. You're live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

It's decision day in Iowa. Just hours from now caucus-goers will line up behind their favorite presidential candidates and get the ball officially rolling on this year's nominating process.

Between now and then, a last-minute scramble. The CNN election express is in Des Moines to bring you up-to-the-minute coverage from the best political team on television.

Today's the day, and all the candidates know it, too. CNN senior political correspondent Candy Crowley looks at what the Iowa caucuses will actually determine and what they won't.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Know how you can tell it's close to being over? They're screaming.

OBAMA: If you believe, let's go change the world. And stand with me.

CROWLEY: And they're careening around the state. John Edwards is on the 36-hour non-stop road show.

JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, we have important work still left to do.

CROWLEY: And they're getting all chummy and cheery with the press corps.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: How are you all?

CROWLEY: Armed with a coffee pot, Hillary Clinton helpfully reminded reporters to wear a coat in the cold and then looked down the road.

CLINTON: I'm going all the way from the caucuses tomorrow through February 5th and expect to be the nominee. So...

CROWLEY: And that's the thing about Iowa: despite the year-long campaign, it's not close to being over. It's close to starting.

GOV. BILL RICHARDSON (D-NM), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: All I want to do is have a strong showing in the top three, move on to New Hampshire, move on to Nevada. And then to New Mexico and some of the western primaries.

CROWLEY: That's the other thing about Iowa. Unless you're a prohibitive front-runner who implodes...

HOWARD DEAN (D), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And then we're going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House. Yeah!

CROWLEY: ... think Howard Dean -- you don't have to win to survive.

SEN. JOE BIDEN (D-DE), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think anybody who comes out of here who exceeds expectations is going to get a ticket to go to New Hampshire, and I expect to get one of those tickets.

CROWLEY: Iowa does not decide the race to the nomination, but it shapes it.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People are going to listen to what Iowa has to say.

CROWLEY: A few for instances.

MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I mean, if there ever was definition underdog, look in the dictionary. There's a photo of me right there, underdog.

CROWLEY: If Huckabee beats Romney, he becomes more than an interesting blip in campaign history, although still underfinanced. It would not be fatal for Romney, but it would weaken him and ensure a really interesting Romney/McCain dog fight in New Hampshire.

ROMNEY: And with regards to Senator McCain, I think he was just wrong to vote against the Bush tax cuts twice.

CROWLEY: And there are endless down-the-road permutations for Democrats.

OBAMA: We need to turn the page. We need to write a new chapter. CROWLEY: If Obama wins, Clinton loses the patina of inevitability, and New Hampshire polls showing a tie with Barack Obama grow more troublesome. Unless, of course, Clinton loses to John Edwards, producing an Edwards/Obama showdown for the not-Hillary slot.

CLINTON: Come out to caucus tomorrow night, and together we will make history. Thank you all.

CROWLEY: and if she wins Iowa in the rearview mirror may turn out to be the beginning of the end for everyone else.

CLINTON: We're ready. We're ready. Yes.

CROWLEY: and if she places third, whole new ballgame, baby.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Des Moines.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: Nonstop action today with the caucuses drawing closer by the minute. We've got all the latest developments from the campaign trail, plus CNN contributor Carl Bernstein and former presidential adviser David Gergen will join me with their thoughts on how things will shake out.

And those campaign promises we keep hearing about: can the candidates really deliver? Joe Johns will join us. He's "Keeping Them Honest."

And if you'll be caucusing in Iowa this evening, we want to know what it's like. Take your camera, send us photos, video from inside. Just go to CNNPolitics.com. We're going to air some of the best I- Reports during our special coverage tonight at 8 Eastern.

And results from the Iowa caucuses will be changing minute by minute, county by county tonight. Track them yourself and stay up to the second at CNNPolitics.com, your one-stop shop for the Iowa causes.

MARCIANO: Oil prices still running at or near record highs. Markets still absorbing the shock of seeing 100 bucks a barrel. CNN's Susan Lisovicz is standing by for us at the New York Stock Exchange.

First, though, to Ali Velshi at the New York Mercantile Exchange. He's keeping an eye on those oil futures.

Ali, you're somewhere down there on the pits. Where do we stand right now?

ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're looking at about $99.35 for oil. Maybe you've got a shot of that there. It popped up over $100 a few times. About three times it's taken a run at it, going as high as $100.05. That's the first time that's ever happened.

You know, yesterday at about 24 hours ago it hit $100 for the first time. It sort of just came down very suddenly from there. It wasn't a lot of conviction. Now it feels like we're looking at a higher price.

Now, the bottom line, Rob, is that if it's $99 or $93 or $105 what you feel is heating oil, if you're in the northeast of the United States, or gasoline, about $3.05 a gallon across the country. And that's not going anywhere. The fact is those prices are high right now. There's no particular reason why it wouldn't be.

Here's the deal, Rob. You know this. We make about half of a million barrels more oil in the world every day than we use. That's not much of a spread. So when you've got some bad weather in Mexico or you've got an attack in Nigeria on an oil facility, all of that stuff makes the price of oil spike.

So while this is a higher price than most people think it should be, most analysts and economists, probably by $30 or $40, the fact is someone's willing to hand over $100 for a barrel of oil. And you and I are paying the price at the pump and in heating oil, in the cost of transportation for all the things we buy, Rob.

MARCIANO: No doubt about that. When does oil stop trading? I know it's before the stock market closes.

VELSHI: Yes. We stop -- we finish -- they sort of stop here at 3:30 Eastern. The stock market goes on until 4. But in fact, oil trades around the world -- now what are we looking at right here? All right. We're looking at...

MARCIANO: Lots of activity.

VELSHI: That's what they're getting excited about: oil is at $95.33. That was for me, apparently. There you go, this is my fan club.

MARCIANO: Clearly. Clearly. I see the flash bulbs, the paparazzi, as well. All right. We'll give you a chance to absorb what just happened there, Ali, and we'll have you check back throughout the CNN NEWSROOM.

All right. Let's get over to Susan Lisovicz, also at the bustling New York Stock Exchange. Although looks like you're above the floor right now.

SUSAN LISOVICZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm above the fray. I'm above the fray.

MARCIANO: What's the market doing with all this action?

LISOVICZ: Well, the market's hanging in there. But of course, we're coming off, you know, the worst opening day of the new year for the Dow Industrials in -- I think it was 25 years. I mean, it's really, really a rough -- is it 25? I just want to double-check. Twenty-five years. I wanted to double-check that, because it was that extreme for the Dow.

So, we're seeing three major averages, up modestly. We did get some good news to buffer what we're seeing out of the oil pits. We got factory orders that increased last month. And we got a survey on job growth in the private sector, which came in a little bit better than expected.

But we get the monthly report on jobs, which is considered a lot more critical. And we're expecting to see weakness there, Rob.

MARCIANO: All right. All the stocks doing OK, I guess, today. What are these green stocks doing? Solar, with all this oil action, I would think that, you know, environmentally friendly stocks would be doing OK.

LISOVICZ: Well, you know what? I think we really have to measure -- the growth is really in like big blue chip, even old-school companies are doing. Everyone from GE, General Electric, which is a big old-fashioned conglomerate, getting into green technologies, alternative fuel.

United Technologies, Wal-Mart saying that it wants to reduce its energy imprint and cell energy efficient light bulbs. News Corp saying it wants to be carbon neutral within a few years. I mean, there's so much money being thrown into this sector among big companies that you can see that it's resulting in real lifestyle changes.

I just want to that add one of the pieces of information we got today was from Ford. Ford sales declined 9 percent last month. And that's where we're seeing a big lifestyle change. Ford was surpassed last year by Toyota, which is the leader in what, hybrids. So, the SUVs have been a real -- have been a real stinker for Detroit, and they really had to -- had to try to get into more fuel-efficient cars.

MARCIANO: In the end, I guess the markets will move the way they moved. And if there's a way to make money on green technology, we'll do it here in America.

We'll check back with you in just a little bit.

LISOVICZ: Make some green from that green. Right, Rob?

MARCIANO: Thank you. I like that. Maybe write a book with that title. All right. Susan Lisovicz, live from the New York Stock Exchange.

LISOVICZ: We'll see you in a little bit.

MARCIANO: All right. We'll see you later. Thanks.

PHILLIPS: Well, back to the big day in Des Moines. The Iowa caucuses, grassroots democracy in action. Joining us now from Des Moines, Kathie Obradovich, political editor for "The Des Moines Register."

Kathie, good to see you.

KATHIE OBRADOVICH, POLITICAL EDITOR, "THE DES MOINES REGISTER": Nice to be here. PHILLIPS: This has been your beat for 20 years. It's amazing how fast it flies. Wouldn't you say?

OBRADOVICH: Absolutely.

PHILLIPS: And the cover of your newspaper today, a great cartoon. "Now You Decide," bottom line it's coming right down to it. In the 20 years that you have been there and covering politics, what's standing out for you? Where's the twist in all of this?

OBRADOVICH: Well, this is by far the biggest caucus cycle we've ever had in recent history in Iowa. The -- both parties being wide open, huge field of candidates. It looks like we're set for a turnout bigger than ever before. So, this is absolutely the pinnacle for the caucuses at this point.

PHILLIPS: And why is that? Why are we seeing such a change, such a renewed interest? You're seeing so many young people come out. You're seeing so many new caucus-goers, as well.

OBRADOVICH: Well, I think it's a combination of things. One, like I said, no prohibitive favorite on either side, and so everybody has a chance at the playing field.

The other thing is that, with the war in Iraq, concerns about the economy, I think a lot more people are looking at maybe the last cycle when they didn't participate and wished that they had gotten involved then, and they don't want to make that same mistake again.

PHILLIPS: Interesting. Well, how realistic is it to count on people who have never even shown up for this process before?

OBRADOVICH: Historically speaking, it's a risk to count on first-timers. They do not show up. They have not shown up in historic numbers in the past. But every candidate is trying to be the one to break the mold and get those first-timers out for them. And this could very well be the year.

PHILLIPS: If you had to make an educated guess, who do you think is going to win?

OBRADOVICH: Boy. You know, I'm educated enough to know I shouldn't make a guess. Really, I mean, anything could happen.

PHILLIPS: Come on. Give us a vibe, an energy. I mean, what do you see? I mean, you're there; you're in the middle of it. You've been doing this for a number of years. You know, what's your gut telling you? What are you really paying attention to as a political editor?

OBRADOVICH: Here's what we're watching for. A huge turnout favors Barack Obama on the Democrat side. He relies more than any -- anybody else on first-timers and new caucus-goers.

Hillary Clinton and John Edwards don't need first-timers and newbies as much as Barack Obama does. On the Republican side, big turnout favors Mike Huckabee. And that is because Mitt Romney has, by far, the better organization to get really the activists out for him.

PHILLIPS: Who has the most to lose, you think?

OBRADOVICH: Boy. Well, I think Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive favorite nationally, and this hurts her if she doesn't do well in Iowa. And so, you know, going on to New Hampshire, however, she can -- she can survive a hit in Iowa.

And you know, Mitt Romney, as well. He -- he needs to do well here.

But the third tier candidates are the ones who are going to drop out after Iowa if they don't do well. So really, it's big stakes for them.

PHILLIPS: Kathie Obradovich, "Des Moines Register" political editor. It's going to be fun to watch. Thanks for talking with me.

OBRADOVICH: Thank you.

PHILLIPS: Well, if you want to see what your favorite candidate is saying on the trail, tune in to CNN.com. Our Web site will stream campaign events as they come to CNN all day.

MARCIANO: Well, a hiker disappears in the north Georgia mountains. Now authorities hope to talk to a man who apparently was with the woman before she disappeared.

Who was last seen on New Year's Day.

PHILLIPS: No big cats. Not today, anyway. The scene of a deadly tiger attack opens again for business. We're going to talk to the family that's on their way to the scene of the tragedy.

MARCIANO: And on the campaign trail, the clock ticks down to the Iowa caucuses. We'll find out what CNN contributor Carl Bernstein and former presidential adviser David Gergen have to say about tonight's big event.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MARCIANO: Well, it's been nine days since a tiger escaped the San Francisco Zoo, killed a visitor, hurt two others and sent zoo keepers scrambling to make the facility safer.

It's still far from clear exactly what happened late Christmas afternoon. But today's the day the zoo opens again to the public. Our Chris Lawrence is live in San Francisco as that zoo opens.

The crowds are beginning to shuffle in there a little bit, Chris?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: ... go anywhere.

MARCIANO: Chris, can you hear me?

CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We're here just outside the entrance to the San Francisco Zoo. You can see people starting to go in. The zoo just opened about ten minutes. It's the first time it's reopened since that deadly tiger attack on Christmas day.

And in the meantime, we have seen a lot of people actually showing up here to go in for the first time. This family we caught up with them right here. You know, why come back on this first day that the zoo has reopened?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, it's been closed for a while. We're on Christmas break, and we thought we'd come and see all the animals. We enjoy the zoo.

LAWRENCE: No -- no security concerns, no safety concerns, bringing all the kids out?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No. It seemed like a pretty freak accident so I think we're -- we feel safe.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We do feel safe. I mean, you know -- we -- if something happened I'd fend them off. I don't know.

LAWRENCE: So no -- you're not feeling nervous at all or anything? You think everything's under control?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People come to the zoo every day, and this has never happened before. I mean, I don't know what the situation was with what happened exactly, but it seems maybe there was some -- some other issue that caused the cat to get out of its enclosure.

LAWRENCE: All right. Thank you very much, folks. We'll let you get on in. I know the boys have been waiting to go on in.

And again, he mentioned some of those other concerns. A report out today, a woman who was at the zoo with her family on Christmas day is telling the "San Francisco Chronicle" that she saw a group of young men screaming and even growling at some of the lions.

She obviously also identified the young man who was mauled to death by the tiger. She said he himself was not taunting the tigers.

But again, some of the zoo officials say they found things in the tiger habitat that should not have been in there, were not in there, and they think perhaps there is the possibility, at least, that some of those things were thrown into the habitat. Everyone looking for reasons why this tiger jumped the moat, climbed the fence and attacked these young men.

Back to you.

MARCIANO: Still looking for those answers. The investigation continues. Good to see, at least, that the zoo is now open. Chris Lawrence live for us in San Francisco. Thanks, Chris. PHILLIPS: Foul weather or foul play? We're going to tell you about a potentially ominous turn in the case of a missing hiker in the frigid north Georgia mountains. Rusty Dornin here to tell us it all.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: One-nineteen Eastern Time. Here are some of the stories we're working on in the CNN NEWSROOM right now.

Caucus night in Iowa. We're hours away from the first reading of the country's political temperature. The hand shaking and baby kissing is in maximum overdrive.

He was locked up 17 years, convicted of murdering his parents. But his conviction was overturned, and he was recently released. Now New York prosecutors say they're dropping all charges against Martin Tankleff.

And in southeastern Turkey, a car bomb detonates next to an army bus. Four people dead, dozens more hurt. The prime minister is blaming terrorists. Details are still coming in right now.

MARCIANO: And in the frigid north Georgia mountains, a potentially sinister turn in the story of a missing hiker. Meredith Emerson, a recent university graduate, was last seen New Year's Day on Blood Mountain just south of the town of Blairsville.

CNN's Rusty Dornin joins me now with the latest on this.

We've seen some serious turns today with details of a man being seen with her. What do you know?

RUSTY DORNIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we first heard yesterday it sounded like, you know, a young woman lost in the woods. But from the more we heard about Meredith Emerson, we heard that she knew those trails. She took her dog with her. She went hiking there often.

Now police say they are looking at a person of interest. A man described as very badly weathered, missing teeth, had a very large old-looking backpack, about 160 pounds. And more than one witness has said they saw the two of them talking on the trail. And then the dogs went up the mountain, and they followed them up the mountain. Now one of them was a former police officer, so he's a pretty credible witness at this point.

Her family and friends describe her as very athletic, feisty, not a person to be reckoned with. And in fact, one of them described her as 120 pounds of pure tough. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PEGGIE BELLY, FAMILY SPOKESWOMAN: Let me tell you something. Meredith Emerson could do anything. She is feisty. She is strong. She's tiny, a petite 120 pounds, but let me tell you, I have every hope, that if anybody could -- she can run those mountains. She -- she's a strong person. If anybody can survive this, she can. She's got her dog.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DORNIN: Search and rescue teams are up there right now. Of course, they were up four hours yesterday. They had to quit, but they're back up with volunteers.

But the concern still is, it's freezing up there.

MARCIANO: Yes.

DORNIN: Going down into the single digits.

MARCIANO: Yes. And last night was way, way cold.

Other information: her Tae Kwon Do instructor says that she's taken down guys twice her size, so that's encouraging.

DORNIN: That's right.

MARCIANO: I've read somewhere that there was a baton, like a police baton that was also found.

DORNIN: Well, it's interesting, because what the former police officer told a store owner that. And he actually picked up a water bottle and a leash they believe that belonged to the dog -- or excuse me, to Meredith, and that was the leash she had on the dog.

And he described a baton. But police are now just saying that this man, this very weathered-looking man, was wearing some kind of sheath. And they won't say what was in that sheath. So the police are not really talking about a baton, but other witnesses are.

MARCIANO: Lots still to uncover. Hopefully, we have a good news ending to this story. Thanks, Rusty. Rusty Dornin.

PHILLIPS: Your personal information matters, especially when your life is on the line. What should you do to help doctors who are helping you in the emergency room?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: Well, for the second day in a row, oil prices touched $100 a barrel, and today they climbed above that level. Susan Lisovicz on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange with the latest now on the numbers.

Hey, Susan, not as crazy as it was where Ali Velshi was.

LISOVICZ: I'm happy to, yes, say that I am -- I'm in a much calmer environment. But I have -- I can empathize with Ali, because I've certainly seen that and been there. And I know what it's all about. And it's been a crazy time in the financial markets lately.

And one of the reasons why is oil climbing above $100 a barrel for the second day in as many -- second time in as many days, confirming the fact that it's not just a fluke.

And one of the reasons why is that we've got this inventory report. It's one of the factors that actually pushed oil above $100 yesterday. And certainly, the fears were confirmed, more than confirmed. This government report showed that -- that gasoline and dissolute (ph) inventories actually increased, but crude stockpiles were much worse than expected.

Wall Street was expecting a decline of two million barrels. It came in four million barrels lower.

But stocks, I'm happy to report, are higher, at least at this point in the session. The Dow Industrials, which recorded a more than 200-point decline yesterday on the first trading day of the year, up right now 59 points. That's nearly 60 points. The NASDAQ, meanwhile, is up 10 points.

And oil prices, by the way, are down 37 cents but still well above $99 a barrel, so it's still really high, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Well, is conservation the way out of these higher prices?

LISOVICZ: That really would be a great thing, but you know, demand is something that's -- not only continues to increase here in the United States, but it's coming from other parts of the world and very populous parts of the world, Kyra, places like India and China, emerging countries like that.

Also you know, the United States passed its first fuel efficiency standard in more than 30 years, so you can understand that. Change is coming, but it's coming real slowly.

The EPA has been challenging California, which has been trying to pass more stringent guidelines, but that's something that remains in the courts.

And you know, I wanted to get back to you, Kyra, on something that Rob was asking about. Is there green in green stocks? Well, yes. We're seeing a lot of money being thrown at alternative energy.

And one stock that's on fire today is Aquinas Solar, which is obviously in solar power. Its shares are up 29 percent on word of some big -- big contracts in Europe. So there's demand not only from the U.S. but from overseas.

And United Technologies, which is sort of an old-school company, its shares are up about 2 percent. It's one of the Dow 30 stocks, and it's getting into alternative energy, too. That news came out yesterday.

So yes, there's green in there -- that green, and that's something that is expected to increase for obvious reasons.

The next hour we're going to be talking about toys for adults. How about that, Kyra? PHILLIPS: Depends on what kind of toys. Can you give us a hint?

Rob's talking about his Xbox over here.

LISOVICZ: Come on, Rob. His ears perked up, I noticed. Well, OK. Tech toys, all right?

PHILLIPS: OK. All right. That works. All right. Even I can never keep up with the five million of them that come through every year. All right. See you in a little bit, Susan.

LISOVICZ: You got it.

MARCIANO: We'll leave it at that. OK?

PHILLIPS: Yes, all right.

MARCIANO: For the candidates, it's all about getting out the vote. Who has the most to gain? Who has the most to lose? And why should the rest of the country care what Iowans think? Well, two veteran political observers will step in to the CNN NEWSROOM to explain.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: Snow on the ground, bitter cold. A typical caucus day across Iowa. Presidential wannabes can only hope their supporters will venture out tonight after dark to stand up and be counted. CNN contributor Carl Bernstein and former Presidential Adviser David Gergen now in New York, some thoughts on the first of the presidential contest.

Gentlemen, great to see you both. David, let's start with you. Democrats -- they all pretty much sound the same on the issues now, so you think personality factor is huge here.

DAVID GERGEN, FMR. PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER: Personality factor is gigantic. I think we all thought that Hillary Clinton might be inevitable in this. Iowa is not exactly her kind of state. She doesn't fit there quite as well as in a state like New York, for example. So she's had a harder time establishing a lead.

Barack Obama, after a great start on his campaign, then sort of stalled out and now is got a booster rocket going. So they are coming right down to the wire there. And John Edwards who has been parked out in Iowa for a long, long time cannot be counted out. So you've got to -- I think the Democratic race is unpredictable. I think the outcome from the The Republican race is more predictable, not the Democratic.

PHILLIPS: Really, you think Republican is more predictable?

GERGEN: Well, I think as you come down into the home stretch with Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, virtually tied in the polls, what we know is the turnout is critical in the last day or two, especially caucus night. And that Mitt Romney has a much, much better organization, a lot of paid volunteers, been there a long time.

I just cannot imagine he can't turn out more people for the caucuses than Mike Huckabee does, even though Mike Huckabee's got these evangelical enthusiasm with him. So, I would have to say I think Mitt Romney would be the favorite going into the night.

PHILLIPS: Carl, help me out here hit on Democrats and Republicans for me. Your thoughts.

CARL BERNSTEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: The main thing is, first, what a remarkable field of Democratic candidates this has been. You know, all of these people really look like they could be the president in the United States. That's the first thing. Secondly, Hillary Clinton has got a lot to lose if she can't make a pretty good showing here tonight.

Not only did she come in here as looking kind of inevitable, but she'd been forced way off of her game, so now the Clinton campaign has become one about restoration to the White House of the Clintons plural. I don't think they wanted it to look that way. I think they wanted Hillary Clinton for president.

Bill Clinton has had to bail her out. He's front and center in this campaign. The last thing she wanted was reminders of the bad parts of the Clinton years, and I think that those reminders are part of what have driven Obama up and Clinton down. So, the dynamic here is quite remarkable and unexpected

PHILLIPS: So Carl, when you say Clintons plural, you're thinking it's not just Hillary Clinton running for the presidency, but --

BERNSTEIN: No.

PHILLIPS: It's Hillary and Bill.

BERNSTEIN: This is the Clintons running to go back to the White House. Would Hillary be the president? Of course. Is she the woman in charge as the title of my book has it? Yes. And what's remarkable is that we have seen, if you read biography of Hillary Clinton, no matter which one you read, you see that there are many dimensions to this woman that are very hidden, that she doesn't show in public, and at the same time we have seen an awful lot of all of Hillary Clinton, all the aspects of her in this campaign.

The good, the bad and the ugly, including the problem that we saw in Philadelphia in the debate which is that she has had historically problems with the efficacy of truthfulness of some of her remarks, and I think that that has hurt her since the debate in Philadelphia.

There's lots of reasons for the way she positions herself and says things that sometimes are not exactly on the money. But many politicians do the same thing. But she also has a pretty good claim when she says the press has been rougher on her in this contest than the other candidates.

PHILLIPS: David, what do you think about what Carl is saying about the Clintons plural?

GERGEN: I think that this -- they do have an awful lot on the line here in Iowa. We have to say that if she wins tonight, it's going to be very tough to beat her for the nomination. It's very hard to see how Barack Obama could come back from a loss, especially a decisive lost here and take it away from her anywhere.

So, if she wins by say three to five points, I think she's probably on the road to the nomination barring the unforeseen. And, there is no way to see John Edwards, where he goes from here. But, if she loses, a lot depends on the margin of the loss.

If she were to come -- very close, say Obama wins by three percent -- sorry, 0.3 percent then I think she goes into New Hampshire pretty strong. On the other hand, disaster for her would be to come in third. If Obama and Edwards were to both beat her, then she's wounded coming out of New Hampshire and it can have a real impact in New Hampshire where Obama could really start drawing that independent vote in.

If he beats her a couple of times in a row, then she's in serious trouble.

PHILLIPS: I have about less than 10 seconds, both I want you both quickly to comment, no Giuliani. Why? Carl?

GERGEN: His campaign is in real trouble, for many reasons that have to do with who he is and his record and he's going to have to redeem himself. I'm not sure he can.

PHILLIPS: David?

BERNSTEIN: Bad mistake. He has to be pulling for Mike Huckabee to win big, and maybe John McCain and nip Romney and then it could open up again for him.

PHILLIPS: Gentlemen, great insight. Carl Bernstein, welcome to the team. David Gergen, great to see you.

BERNSTEIN: Thank you.

MARCIANO: And from analysis to a live event, we take you to where Mitt Romney is right now in Iowa. He's in Des Moines and he's there with his wife and kids at an event undisclosed to the CNN information center, but nonetheless he's speaking to his supporters no doubt. And we'll get you an update of what he's talking about. And tell you what -- let's listen in.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So with that thought, her she is, my wife Ann.

ANN ROMNEY, WIFE OF MITT ROMNEY: Thank you. Wow, it's the last day. This is it. It's cold out there too. We're used to the cold, Mitt and I grew up in Michigan so we're used to this and we've lived in Massachusetts for our entire married life practically, almost all of it. Except for the three years we were in Utah, and then we were in the mountains there, too. So we know winters.

We have, as you might imagine, grown to really love the people of Iowa. We have sensed their goodness and their seriousness when it comes to being informed as voters. It's very impressive. So, even though it's cold outside you have definitely warmed our hearts and we appreciate that.

I obviously know Mitt very well, better than anyone. I have seen him in so many different situations. And I -- I was thinking about it this morning. What is it?

MARCIANO: Mitt Romney has made over 200 stops in Iowa alone, introducing his wife as the boss. That's a smart move. She seems a little bit relieved that today may be the last day of campaigning in Iowa. Said also that it's cold. It's cold elsewhere, in Florida, in fact. That has citrus farmers worried about the crops, how they feared in last night's cold snap.

Bonnie Schneider in the CNN Severe Weather Center talk more about that. Hi, Bonnie.

BONNIE SCHNEIDER, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Hi, Rob. You're right. In fact, it was so cold out there in Florida we had records broken, but I want to show you amazing i-reports that come to us from Florida. You'll recognize these fruits and vegetables you can see them through the ice. This is sent to us from Linus Statcus (ph) and he took these pictures from the Winter Garden area.

He says that the tangerines, tomatoes, cabbage, onions, he doubts any of them survived this deep freeze and they were all ripe and ready to be picked. So, it's disappointing that all these crops have been lost due to the freeze. You can see the ice coating the vegetables there.

If that's not enough, how about snow. That's right, snow flurries in Florida. Doesn't happen every day but we have some video to show you of some snow flurries that fell in and around the Cape Canaveral area. You have to really look closely to see them, and it was very short lived, but of the temperatures did dip down into the 20's in and around central Florida. That's actual snow flurries, right in Florida.

Take look at some of the records that have been broken in this region. We've gotten all the way down into the 30s, but the windchill factor overnight was well into the 20s across much of central Florida. But even Key West dropped down to 45 degrees, and that shattered a record as well.

So we saw records broken in Ft. Lauderdale and Hollywood. And it's still pretty cold out there. Here in Atlanta we have 35 degrees, Little Rock is at 32 and at 37 New Orleans, they had a freeze warning as well this morning. Here's a look at some of the Iowa weather for the caucuses as we go through the afternoon hours. You'll see temperatures really don't get out of the 20s. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the teens and single digits. We're also watching for a powerful storm system that's developing across the much of the West. It's still bringing quite a bit of rain in northern California and plenty of wind in San Francisco. The high wind warning in effect from noon today until 4:00 p.m. tomorrow. We could see wind gusts as strong as 50 miles per hour, sustained winds are already into the about 21-mile-per-hour range.

And it's certainly been causing plenty of airport delays in and around San Francisco. Arriving flights are delayed two hours ten minutes. This extreme weather is also going to bring heavy snow to areas of the Sierra Nevada, a blizzard warning will be in effect pretty much most of Friday. We could see several feet accumulate in terms of snow at the higher elevations as this storm works its way in.

We actually have a series of storms coming in, kind of a one- two punch. And its the second one coming in tomorrow that is really going to pull in that sub-tropical moisture and pile up the snow. So Rob, as we go forward we're looking at the potential for really heavy snow for this region. It's kind of unusual to see a blizzard warning in this area.

MARCIANO: I was going to say. California, a blizzard warning. That seems out of control.

SCHNEIDER: It does. With those strong winds, we're going to see just a complete white-out.

MARCIANO: Reynolds Wolf is heading that way. And he'll be in the white-out and then, snowing in Cape Canaveral. Kind of crazy weather happening this first week of the new year.

All right, Bonnie Schneider, thanks. We'll check back with you a little bit later.

PHILLIPS: Your personal information matters, especially when your life is on the line. What you should do to help doctors who are helping you in an emergency.

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MARCIANO: Every week, we bring you ways to empower yourself to get the health care you need. Today, Elizabeth Cohen looks at the information doctors and nurses say they need from you in case of an emergency.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: If you wear contact lenses or take vitamins or herbs or any kind of medicine, you need to carry around with you a personal health record. That's a little card that has all of the important information that emergency room staff would need to treat you if you came into the emergency room and could not speak for yourself. The emergency room staff says if they don't know what medicines you're on, they might give you another drug that interacts and could really harm you or even possibly kill you. Now, you might be wondering about the contact lenses. That's because if they don't know that you're wearing contact lenses, they could stay in your eyes for days and possibly scratch your corneas. Now, for a list of all of the information that you should put on this card, go to cnn.com/health.

For Empowered Patient, I'm Elizabeth Cohen.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MARCIANO: And make sure to check out Elizabeth's little list there she talked about. You can go to it at cnn.com/health. Just look for her picture and click on link.

PHILLIPS: House of worship burns to the ground. Nothing is sacred in a country awash in chaos. Kenya unravels and we'll have the latest.

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PHILLIPS: We're just getting word in to CNN right now, Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, is dispatching one of her top diplomats to Kenya today, hoping to encourage dialogue between the political leaders there at the end of this post-election violence that we've been telling you about. More than 100 people killed after elections were alleged to be corrupt. State department spokesperson, Sean McCormack, said that Jendayi Frazier will arrive in Kenya tomorrow and plans to meet with the Kenyan president, also the opposition leader.

We're going to follow up on that. Meanwhile, we're on the outside looking in, but how amazing and terrifying the pictures are. This was, in particular, shot by one of our i-Reporters, Duncan Waswa, in Nairobi. Frightened people, as you can see, running for their lives while police on horseback are just trying to maintain some sort of order there in the capital.

Our collection of i-Report videos is growing on our Web site, as you can imagine -- cnn.com. All you do is click on to i-Report at the top right of the main page. We encourage your pictures, your video, it helps us bring more of an inside look to a developing story there in Kenya. And of course, we've got correspondents there on the scene as well. We're following up on that after-election violence.

Stay with CNN. In our next hour, we're going to have a visit from Jim Clancy, from CNN International. He's going to break down the latest developments in Kenya for us. He's going to explain why one of Africa's stable nations appears to be spinning out of control.

MARCIANO: Four people dead, more than 60 are wounded in a big city southeastern Turkey. A car bomb detonated next to a bus filled with Turkish soldiers. Police say someone set the bomb off remotely. It's the same city where a bomber killed more than ten people in September 2006. Tensions run high in the area between the Turkish military and the largely Kurdish population.

PHILLIPS: Benazir Bhutto's final moments alive, captured this time from a different angle. The Pakistani opposition leader stood atop her motorcade a week ago today, as an assassin or assassins struck her down. This photographer, understandably, gets caught up in the mayhem and panic that follows. Pakistan's president appeared today on state-run television. He addressed charges that the investigation is being impeeded.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PRESIDENT OF PAKISTAN: I'm not fully satisfied. Yes, I'll agree, I'll accept that. And if you think about the cleaning of the area, yes, again, I'm not satisfied. Why did they do that? I mean --unnecessary -- it shouldn't have been done. But if you are meaning that they did it by design, to hide evidence, no. It is just inefficiency I would say.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Musharraf strongly denies his military agents had anything to do with Bhutto's death. He also wonders why Bhutto insisted on traveling with her head out of the car.

MARCIANO: Keeping a close eye on the candidates. What's going on back there in places we don't usually show you. The story behind the story, literally, in the NEWSROOM. Stay tuned for that.

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PHILLIPS: Couple events we're waiting for right now. Waiting for National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley to hold a news conference here from the White House on President Bush's trip to the Middle East which begins January 8th. We're also expecting a news conference at the top of the hour on that missing hiker here in the Georgia mountains. We're tracking both of those stories for you here in the CNN NEWSROOM.

MARCIANO: Back to politics. Politicians are known for sometimes orchestrating campaign events. But what goes on behind their backs is often out of their hands.

CNN's Jeanne Moos goes behind the candidates.

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JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A lot goes on behind a candidate's back, but not all of it is good.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: ...all around the world ...

MOOS: For some, politics is a yawn.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No, we can do better because we did better.

MOOS: They yawn when they're young, they yawn when they're old. Sometimes, they manage to squeeze in a yawn. MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And then I spent three years out running the Olympic games and then ...

MOOS: Just in the nick of time avoiding detection. And sometimes, they graduate from yawning to sleeping.

CLINTON: At the end of the day ...

MOOS: Seems to be the end of this little girl's day. It's easy to find your eye wandering to the human backdrop, drawn to sights like the guy in the twitching cowboy hat.

CLINTON: ...47 million uninsured Americans, millions more.

MOOS: Did we imagine that?

CLINTON: The changes that we know we can make together.

MOOS: It's normal for supporters to serve as strategically placed props. Though wearing your sign on your head defeats the purpose, even if it shades your eyes from the bright lights.

Who could forget perhaps the most riveting background distraction ever, the kid Letterman made famous for upstaging the leader of the free world.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The high sheriff is with us today. You're worried about the quality of the education system (ph). We stand for the fair treatment of faith-based groups (INAUDIBLE) to receive federal support for their work.

MOOS: A close second to that kid was Rudy Giuliani's son, as Rudy was being sworn in as New York's mayor, son Andrew blew kisses and joined in the oath.

Sometimes what happens behind their backs does capture the candidate's attention. For instance, when someone fell behind Barack Obama Wednesday.

OBAMA: And also to challenge ourselves. Whoops, everybody OK? OK.

MOOS: Then there was the guy who seemed to tune out Mitt Romney by putting in his ear phones and zoning out. And you know how you can get really absorbed in a book?

OBAMA: And save for our own retirement at the same time.

MOOS: It looked like it might have been a Harry Potter book to us. It definitely wasn't Obama's "Audacity of Hope."

OBAMA: Just like Michelle remembers her dad who had multiple sclerosis

MOOS: This wasn't just a page turner, it was a sleeve chewer.

Jeanne, Moos, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MARCIANO: It's not easy being a kid on the campaign trail. Got to occupy your time somehow.

All right, well, what do they read, who are their heroes? CNN affiliate WMUR offers us a view of the presidential candidates we don't often see. The men and women who want to be president, off the cuff, talking about their personal lives. Tune in Sunday at 7:00 p.m. Eastern to see the candidates "In the Cafe."

PHILLIPS: Also, we're waiting for two live events, the first one out of Washington, D.C. at the White House there. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley getting ready to brief all of us on the president's trip to the Middle East which begins the first week of January. He'll be heading to Israel and the West Bank.

Also at the top of the hour, we're expecting a news conference on this woman, the missing Georgia hiker. She and her labrador have been missing now for almost two days. Her car was found and that's about it. We're working the details.

Take a quick break.

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