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Glenn Beck

Was Money Spent in Iowa Worth It?; Candidates Using Fear Tactics; How Do Caucuses Work

Aired January 03, 2008 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MIKE GALANOS, HOST (voice-over): Tonight decision day in Iowa. Finally, the candidates continue to slug it out, spending as much as 200 bucks a vote. Will it all pay off?

Plus, what happened to illegal immigration? The political issue that divided America in 2007 has now jumped the fence on the campaign trail.

What a role model this is. The 16-year-old star of Nickelodeon`s "Zoey 101" is pregnant. So should that show be allowed to continue?

All that and more, next.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GALANOS: Hey, everybody. I`m Mike Galanos sitting in for Glenn Beck.

Wake up, America. It`s finally game day. This election has given us the longest pre-game build-up in history. Old sportscaster here. So humor me with some of this language. But come on, we`ve had it. All the debates, umpteen debates, political analysis ad nauseam, and now it`s really time to zone in.

Put away the Christmas lights, you the voter finally have a say-so, and you the voter have been wooed by political ads that have cost the candidates millions.

Let`s get real here. It`s illegal to buy votes in this country, but that has not stopped candidates from both parties from trying, sort of anyway. Let`s get a look at some of these numbers here.

According to CNN`s Washington bureau, the candidates have spent upwards of $40 million on campaign ads in Iowa alone. That`s $200 per caucus-goer, 200 bucks a vote. That`s three times what was spent back in 2004. The question, was it enough?

Let`s get to some individual candidates here. Barack Obama, he`s leading the Democrats with $9 million spent on ads; Hillary $7 million. And let`s talk about the Republicans, as well. Mitt Romney, he`s got the bucks. He spent $7 million himself, five times more than his rival Mike Huckabee.

So while it takes money to get the message out, here`s the question. Is all that money being well spent?

Joining me now to get your thoughts -- get their thoughts, that is, Democratic strategist Peter Fenn. Also joining us, Jonathan Martin, senior writer for The Politico. And joining us once again, CNN political analyst Amy Holmes.

All right. I want to get all three of you in on this one. My take on this: something bothers me here. There`s something about this I don`t like, that there`s an undercurrent that money buys the election. And I don`t like it, and I think a lot of voters agree with me, that money is the dominant force. I have cash; I get the votes. It doesn`t sound like democracy to me.

Jonathan, do voters agree with me, or is it, "Come on, Galanos, money`s the way of the world. Get over it"?

JONATHAN MARTIN, SENIOR WRITER, THE POLITICO: Mike Huckabee will tell you at about 9 p.m. tonight. He`ll know, because the fact is -- is that your premise is being tested on the Republican side here in Iowa. He has been greatly outspent by Mitt Romney. It`s not even close. But yet, Huckabee in most polls now still enjoys a lead.

If Huckabee polls this thing out, it will underscore the fact that money can`t necessarily buy a politician love, at least in Iowa, at least on the caucuses, which are very, very different, obviously, than a typical election.

But this is why Iowans say the nation`s presidential elections should start here, because going back to Carter in `76, it gives the little guys a shot.

GALANOS: Good point there.

Amy Holmes, let`s talk about that. Mike Huckabee, isn`t that the way he should play this? It would be nice if he had the money. I`m sure his campaign would say that. But if you don`t have it, you play the underdog card, and a lot of people will relate to that.

AMY HOLMES, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: That`s exactly right. Money can`t buy you love, but it can buy you a look. And I would actually say that the money question when it comes to Mike Huckabee is a little bit misleading. If you were to quantify how much free media Mike Huckabee has gotten...

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GALANOS: Hillary Clinton, according to the "Wall Street Journal," she`s raised $90 million; Barack Obama $80 million. That`s a lot of money. They can both slug it out, right?

PETER FENN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: No question about it. And John Edwards has raised a lot of money. Got the matching funds. Has that $2 million...

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FENN: ... so you know, everybody`s spending a lot of money in there, except that, you know, you have to look at -- unfortunately, guys like Richardson or Dodd or Biden, they`re -- they`re the underclassmen. They`re the ones without as much.

But Amy`s point is the right one. Look, these folks had chances in the debates. They`ve had chances on free press. Huckabee was the one that was able to leapfrog a little bit with that free press. So you know, it is going to be an interesting story, I think, that once this is over, to really assess this.

But it has been the Mercedes protection program for station owners out there in Iowa. There`s no question about that.

GALANOS: Real quick on John Edwards. He`s been kind of crying poor man a little bit. Are voters buying it?

FENN: Well, I think a little bit. His message, of course, is anti- Washington. And that works, because everybody`s mad at Washington. He`s got a good strong message.

But, you know, it`s a little tricky when he`s taking the $2 million from -- from outside groups, half a million from one single donor, to -- to push into this so-called independent group. So I think -- I think he`s going to run into some problems and some buzz saws down the road if he continues to be sort of hypocritical on that.

GALANOS: Jonathan, let`s get back to you. We`re talking about all this money spent, millions. Is it money well spent? You kind of alluded to it earlier. Maybe in Iowa it`s not.

MARTIN: Well, in Romney`s case you mentioned $17 million. He`s actually going to spend well over that. That number was actually outdated. It`s going to be well over 20 at this point, and probably closer to 30, when all is said and done during the course of this primary.

Look, we`re going to know the question very, very soon here. If Romney dumps a ton of cash in Iowa and then New Hampshire and comes out 0 for 2, that says a lot about the process and how it works and that money doesn`t necessarily mean everything and that, you know, a candidate will be assessed and will rise and fall based on factors besides just that.

But a point Amy did make is important. Part of the reason that Huckabee has lost some ground to Romney, part of the reason why this race is so competitive tonight is because Huckabee does not have the organization to push back against either Romney`s charges or the media scrutiny. He`s taken a beating this past month from foes, and he`s not been able to fight back, because he just doesn`t have the cash to create the organization necessary.

GALANOS: When you have money, Amy, what is the most effective way to use it? Especially if you`re Huckabee and you`ve got very little. Do you go negative? Do you go positive? How do you maximize what little you`ve got?

HOLMES: Well, what Huckabee proves is that if you don`t have money you need a message, and that message is resonating with evangelicals and those Christian voters in Iowa.

But you know, getting back to the earlier point about Mitt Romney and money, you know, you have to ask the question compared to what? If he hadn`t put money into this campaign, would we even be talking about him being competitive, or would he be down there in the numbers with Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo?

Clearly, money got his name I.D. way, way up in the press. The press was talking about how much money he had, which made him a higher-tier candidate and much more formidable.

GALANOS: No, the money helps. No doubt about it.

Peter, on another point, when a lot of strategists, and we`re going to get your take on it, since you are a Democratic strategist. Some have said Hillary Clinton should not have spent the money in Iowa; she should have saved it to use elsewhere.

Do you agree with that at all, that maybe to save for the bigger states? Twenty-two states in play February 5th.

FENN: I know the argument. But I think if she had bowed out of Iowa it would have been an admission of defeat to start off. It`s not the admission that she would want to send. And I think she had to compete.

Look, I think if it is closely bunched, I don`t think it will make that much difference. She`ll go on. You know, look, if she wins it, she`s in very good shape. But I think this is a very fluid situation, and if she took herself out of that game, I think that she would be in trouble in New Hampshire. She`d be in trouble in South Carolina. She would have been in trouble going into those February 5th states you`re talking about, Michael.

HOLMES: And Mike, I`d like to add, though, that we would be talking about Hillary the way we`re talking about Giuliani. Boy, it`s a risky strategy to be skipping Iowa. Can she really afford to have her competitors stacking up some wins?

GALANOS: Jonathan, good move by Giuliani? Jonathan, real quick.

MARTIN: No, that`s exactly right. Rudy`s problem right now is that he`s just not being mentioned at all. He`s not in the storyline. When you aren`t playing somewhere where the entire national press is gathered, the entire national press corps is gathered, you`re not part of the mix.

And that`s Rudy`s challenge now, and it would have been Hillary`s also. Try to stay relevant, keep that calendar frozen for a few weeks.

GALANOS: Guys, thanks a lot. Peter, Amy, Jonathan, we appreciate it. Hold tight. We`ll talk to you again in a little bit. And we`re going to stay with the money game a little bit here. Cash buys those campaign ads, but how effective are they? Especially when they play on the fears of every American.

From Rudy Giuliani all the way back to LBJ, we`re going to take a closer look at that.

And here`s something you don`t want. The anti-endorsement. Michael Moore, he`s going after Hillary, Rush Limbaugh, Huckabee. How much does that affect a candidate?

Plus, a special non-political segment. And it`s two for the price of one. Spears, that is. What does the future hold for Brit and Jamie Lynn? We shudder to think. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GALANOS: Lately it seems that not endorsing a candidate is the new endorsing of a candidate. Follow me here. Whether it`s liberal bloggers or Rush Limbaugh, how much does the anti-endorsement hurt a candidate in his or her quest for the White House? We`ll talk about that in a little bit.

But first, you know, long gone are the good old days when you had the Lincoln-Douglas debate, when a presidential candidate would eloquently lay out his ideas for a way to change the nation.

These days, presidential hopefuls leave the crafting of their, quote unquote, message to the same guys who sell you dish soap and Doritos. And when it comes to pitching you a politician, what`s the best friend of a politician? Fear.

Get a load of this ad. It`s a new one from Rudy Giuliani playing in New Hampshire.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: An enemy without borders, hate without boundaries, a people perverted, a religion betrayed. A nuclear power in chaos. Madmen bent on creating it. Leaders assassinated. Democracy attacked. And Osama bin Laden still making threats.

In a world where the next crisis is a moment away, America needs a leader who`s ready.

RUDY GIULIANI (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I`m Rudy Giuliani, and I approve this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GALANOS: All right. There`s the fear tactic from the Rudy Giuliani campaign.

Earlier this week -- we showed it to you yesterday -- John McCain used the war on terror in his own ad. It`s an online assault on Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. Again the base theme is fear here. So as the election heats up, you can better believe you`re going to see more fear ads.

And here to help us kind of dissect this in really a long history of scaring you to the polls and making you vote for a certain candidate. First we have Robert Thompson, director of the Center for Television and Popular Culture at Syracuse University. Also joining us, Terry Holt, former national spokesperson for the Bush-Cheney campaign and partner at the Republican lobbying firm HDMK.

Gentlemen, thank you both.

Robert, let`s start with you. I watched that Giuliani ad. I`m moved. I`m watching. It`s got my attention. Is that -- it seems to me it`s the golden strategy. Do you agree?

ROBERT THOMPSON, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR TELEVISION AND POPULAR CULTURE, SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY: Well, it scared me.

GALANOS: Yes.

THOMPSON: But as you point out, this is nothing new. I`ll never forget that daisy ad for Lyndon Johnson against Barry Goldwater, where you`ve got a little girl counting down numbers as she plucks the petals off a daisy. And the countdown becomes the countdown to a nuclear weapon. That was a scary ad, as well, and that whole campaign against Goldwater did that, as well.

What`s interesting is in `64 Johnson was trying to scare us against a possible president who would lead us into war. This is a very different strategy, but it`s using the same idea of scaring the living daylights.

GALANOS: Yes. Fear moves people.

But Terry, you kind of disagree with this. You think this isn`t a lock stock way to go, right?

TERRY HOLT, PARTNER, HDMK: I don`t think that the American people scare that easy.

Security, though, is a critical issue for people, particularly as they`re choosing a president, especially as this president will have to conduct this war on terror. I think it is an important issue.

These two ads, though, go in two very different directions. John McCain`s ad, frankly, is directed at imparting a specific piece of information about one of his opponents. It is directed at a focused target with a fairly focused audience, and probably it`s more effective for that reason.

What I find fascinating about the Giuliani ad is that it really plays to a strength he already has that most people already understand. It doesn`t really do anything new for you. It`s still one of those things that you know about Rudy Giuliani.

And as everyone else is running these state by state races, here`s Giuliani with this vague opponent about something we already know of his character. And it`s time, really, for him to tell us more than that he was in New York when it was bombed in 2001.

GALANOS: Don`t you think that is his M.O. right now? It`s the national campaign: "I`m forgoing the early states. I`m going to load up for the later states"?

So let me ask you this. If you`re advising Rudy Giuliani, what do you do? I mean, you`ve got to start off with you`re the leader in New York following 911. Where do you go? What message do you give beyond that?

HOLT: Well, certainly playing to your strength is one of those things you do when you`re trying to increase people`s knowledge of your biography.

But at this stage, as the front-runner for many months, he needs to begin to tell us a little bit more about his background. As a tough crime fighter, as a good manager, things like that. Those are things that are going to have to come out in the next stages of this presidential campaign.

GALANOS: When you talk about effective ads, the Republicans can go to one well that should work regardless, that we have not been attacked on U.S. soil since 9/11.

Robert, why have we not seen more of that?

THOMPSON: Well, I`m surprised we haven`t, because for all of the kind of wreckage that the GOP is potentially in at this point politically, they do have one trump card that is really hard to answer to. And that is the fact that everybody on all political sides of the spectrum have been saying since 2001 it`s not a matter of if, it`s a matter of when. And this administration has gone now into its last year, and there hasn`t been another attack.

Now, intellectually it`s hard to prove a negative. That`s a problem. But whoever said that campaign ads were about intellectual soundness? They`re about emotion and pushing the right buttons. And these are certainly ads that are going toward that.

And yes, Giuliani has been to this well before. But it`s kind of like the Cold War. You can`t go to that well too often, I don`t think.

GALANOS: Robert, you just mentioned pushing the right buttons. I want to shift the topic a little bit.

Terry, when you talk of illegal immigration, how do you push the right buttons with an ad on that topic, which have not been newsmakers so far as far as ads go?

HOLT: Well, there`s a common theme here. It`s security, security, security. People don`t feel like the borders of this country are particularly secure. They don`t know who`s coming over the borders. And so you`ve seen this huge upsurge in the issue of immigration in these -- in these campaigns.

The one thing I`ll be more interested in seeing, though, is as immigration becomes part of the general election dynamic, I think we`ll see some particular vulnerabilities for the Democrats. They haven`t got a particularly tough stand on immigration.

We also have that cross-pressure with Republicans. How do they be tough on immigration at the same time -- and at the same time attract Hispanic votes, which are a fast-growing segment of the American population?

GALANOS: Robert, real quick, do you find this a delicate issue, the illegal immigration? It`s a big issue, and everyone wants to talk about it. But who can sell me that I`m the one that`s going to do something about it?

THOMPSON: Right, it is a big issue. But unlike terror, I mean, the whole idea is we are in danger of terrorist attacks and I`m going to do something about that. Everybody agrees that that`s a good thing.

The problem with going into immigration is you may appeal to one constituency; you may alienate another constituency.

GALANOS: All right, gentlemen, we thank you so much. Robert Thompson, Terry Holt, hope to talk to you again soon.

HOLT: Thank you.

GALANOS: Appreciate your insights.

And it`s time to now find out what you think of tonight`s Web question. Political scare tactics, we talk a lot about it. Do they influence the way you vote? Go-go to our Web site, CNN.com/Glenn, and cast your vote.

All right. Coming up, does anyone really know what a caucus is? If you haven`t got a clue, stick around. We`re going to do our best to explain what`s going to happen in Iowa.

And after custody problems and teenage pregnancy, the Spears sisters, they`ve got to have a better 2008 than they had in 2007. Some of the latest news might say otherwise. An update coming up.

(NEWSBREAK)

GALANOS: All right. You live in the great state of Iowa, and you`ve decided to brave the cold and head to the polls this caucus day to cast your vote. No problem, right? Not so fast. Before you can participate in the caucus you have to actually figure out how it works.

CNN`s own Jeffrey Toobin breaks it down for us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST (voice-over): Imagine an election with no secret ballot, no all-day voting, the age requirement only 17, and finally, you can vote for more than one candidate. If that sounds un- American, it`s actually how the Iowa Democratic caucuses operate. And listen up: you care because those folks in Iowa may actually choose your next president.

In fact, the rules here are so strange that the campaigns in Iowa run training sessions on how to vote. Step one: stand up and be counted.

CHELSEA WALISER, MOCK CAUCUS ORGANIZER: And what you`ll do is then you will get up out of your seat and you`ll go walk to the corner or space by the wall designated for the candidate of your choice. OK. Ready? Go.

TOOBIN (on camera): At Obama`s Iowa rehearsal caucus, they practiced without candidates. Instead they used winter activities. We`ve got ice skating here, drinking hot cocoa, snowboarding, building snowmen, and of course snowball fights.

(voice-over) So once again, they`re not choosing candidates in this rehearsal. They`re choosing favorite winter activities. After the first round, anyone who`s not standing for a candidate -- well, activity in this case -- that meets the threshold of 15 percent of the room is out of luck.

(on camera) Turns out on this night not enough snowboarders. Very sad. So what happens now? If the snowboarders want their votes to count at all, they have to pick a new candidate before the second and final tally.

WALISER: Each group that is viable gets to send one ambassador over to the snowboarding group and try to persuade them to join your group.

TOOBIN: Now it`s let`s make a deal. The other groups all send someone over to the snowboarders to say, "Come on, join our side," a little arm twisting.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Ice skating you feel free. You feel free. You can go on one foot, two feet. You can twirl around.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I like that.

TOOBIN: The snowboarders decide ice skating is their second choice, and they all make the switch.

(voice-over) Understanding that the persuasion period and how to win over second-choice voters is so important, candidates have Web videos to explain it.

JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Don`t just go to the caucus. Bring your friends.

TOOBIN: And even highlight it on the stump.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And you hit that floor and work it and try to get them. And it`s like a fun game. It`s like Monopoly or something. You go over and say, "Hey, well, your man isn`t going to make it. Come over here. Remember I loaned you that snow shovel, or whatever?"

TOOBIN (on camera): Because the rules are so complicated, organization is key. You need to get your supporters to the caucus locations by 7 p.m. sharp, or they can`t vote. And this is Iowa in the winter time. Sometimes the weather`s a factor.

(voice-over) By comparison the Republican caucuses are pretty simple. Though the campaigns, here Fred Thompson`s, are also training their supporters. It`s a secret ballot, and there`s no viability threshold. Every vote counts.

The complicated rules make for one sure thing: that the results here are very hard to predict.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GALANOS: There`s something else that could play in. It`s kind of the latest trend, the anti-endorsement. That`s where conservative whacks conservative, the big left goes liberal to liberal. What does this all mean? How much stock should we put in that? That`s coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GALANOS: Well, it`s double trouble for the Spears sisters. When it rains, it pours. And if you can`t get enough news on these two, then you don`t want to go anywhere. We`ve got the latest on what`s in store for their future. Interesting stuff and new on that.

All right. My mom said it. I`m sure many moms out there say it. If you don`t have anything nice to say, don`t say anything at all.

Mom, that does not work in politics.

Most candidates, they want something nice said about them, maybe an endorsement from a power player to elevate your status a little bit. Well, these days we`re seeing the anti-endorsement. The power players saying don`t vote for that guy.

Radio host Rush Limbaugh, he recently said Mike Huckabee is not a conservative. That hurts. And filmmaker Michael Moore, he hasn`t actually endorsed anyone but took a veiled shot at Hillary Clinton, chiding her for her Iraq war vote, basically saying she was too easily swayed.

I mean, it could be again not saying nice about someone could actually end up benefiting the candidate. We`re going to flesh this one out for you.

Back to the dream team -- Democratic strategist Peter Fenn. Also Jonathan Martin, senior writer for The Politico. And CNN political analyst Amy Holmes joining us.

All right, Amy, we know that Mike Huckabee has taken it from all sides, not only getting it from Limbaugh. You name the pundit -- George Will, Laura Ingraham, Ann Coulter. He`s getting attack ads from his rival, Mitt Romney.

How does he overcome that? Doesn`t that just beat a guy down, especially a guy who does not have a lot of firepower, so to speak?

HOLMES: Well, it certainly has not been helpful. And it`s true that the sort of conservative pundit class has been out against Huckabee for his tax record as governor. But I would say, you know, it depends on where. And looking at Iowa, those Huckabee supporters, they like him because they like his position on faith.

GALANOS: Right.

HOLMES: They like his position on social issues. Where it starts to really get him into trouble is when it becomes an echo chamber for Republicans outside of his base. So for the fiscal conservatives in New Hampshire, for example, all those attacks are really making a difference.

GALANOS: Hey, Jonathan, how do you play this if you`re Huckabee? I mean, is it woe is me, I connect with you the voter, I don`t need these people?

MARTIN: That`s exactly what he`s done. He`s played this sort of David against Goliath card, and he`s basically said, look, I`m just like you, I`m trying to get by, and, you know, this is not easy given this gargantuan task that I`m up against, all the folks that are trying to hold me down. And you, Mr. and Mrs. Iowa, can relate to that because you`ve experienced hardship in your own life.

For some folks it works. And like Amy`s said, he`s succeeding here because folks plain like him. For some it`s the church. For some it`s their views on abortion.

But a lot of people just can relate to him. He`s a likable guy. And that has really carried him. But does that ultimately get him beyond a small universe, Christian conservative-dominated caucus on to places like New Hampshire or Michigan, which are open primaries where Democrats and Independents can participate? Different question.

GALANOS: Right.

But Amy, don`t you need that, though? I mean, these folks have radio air time, hour after hour on the air beating you down.

MARTIN: Right. I totally agree.

GALANOS: Amy -- I`m sorry. Go ahead.

MARTIN: The conservatives have really come after Huckabee, and that has not been helpful at all to his campaign. And I think that does accumulate and it probably does hurt him. Maybe he survives Iowa, but when the full force of the conservative establishment is coming down on you, just ask John McCain in 2000. Very, very tough to win.

GALANOS: Exactly. Very similar.

Do you make that connection, do you make that correlation, Amy?

HOLMES: You know, and I would actually make a little bit of a different point, that Huckabee`s appearance last night on Jay Leno was yet another effort to leapfrog over that conservative criticism and try to...

MARTIN: Right. That`s right.

HOLMES: ... reach out to the more mainstream voter. But in looking at that last night, I thought -- and I said this on the show yesterday, like, please, he shouldn`t be out in Hollywood when he needs to be in Iowa getting those ground troops to the polls. I wonder if he`s not positioning himself already as a vice presidential candidate.

FENN: Well, and he`s trying to go into the Independents, though, and bring them back into his fold. He knows he`s going to lose some of those hard right folks, but if he can capture Independents in New Hampshire, maybe he can move up there where he`s hurting. So I think there may be some method to his madness there.

GALANOS: Hey, Peter, let`s stay with you. Michael Moore takes the veiled shot at Hillary Clinton. Does that hurt her or...

FENN: That may help her. That may help her out a little bit.

You know, you never can tell. Michael Moore is pretty far out there, as is Rush Limbaugh, for that matter. But you know, what you`re really playing to here is -- you know, you`ve got to be careful in a primary or a caucus to go to your base, no question. But you also have to go towards that middle.

And you know, one of the things that Hillary`s been trying to do all along in this campaign is to widen her circle, not narrow it. So I`m not - - if I were a Hillary person, I wouldn`t be as worried about the Michael Moore stuff to be honest with you.

GALANOS: Again, so to hear everybody here, it sounds like both can play it, hey, I`m with you on the middle voter, maybe these folks are all wet here.

What about...

FENN: There`s a certain also -- you know, there is that underdog thing.

GALANOS: Right.

FENN: And I think that`s what some of these folks -- look, Hillary -- I always thought that the worst case for Hillary was to always be the candidate that was a given, that was going to win, that was for sure going to make it. I mean, once you have to fight back in this, people tend to go with you.

Huckabee all along has had folks who will, you know, go to the mat for him. And you know, we`ll have to see how many of them there are in Iowa, you know, but -- and in other states.

GALANOS: Huckabee definitely is the passionate candidate. The passionate candidate on the Democrat side is Barack Obama.

Let`s talk about a big endorsement that might help. Want to get your take.

Peter, let`s stay with you real quick talking Democrats.

Oprah Winfrey says I like Barack. Is that playing well?

FENN: I think this is very important for enthusiasm, getting folks to the polls, getting people excited about your candidacy. Clearly, she`s a tremendous plus there. But most voters, when they`re asked in polls, will not go with a candidate simply because of an endorsement, even if it is someone that they like and respect.

GALANOS: Right.

Jonathan?

FENN: But I think the enthusiasm factor is important.

HOLMES: You know, that`s right.

GALANOS: Go ahead.

HOLMES: And remember that Obama, with that Oprah endorsement, he dominated the news. He had all the headlines, all the attention was on him.

But you know, in looking at this whole endorsement question, I would, you know, submit to you that oftentimes, endorsements actually hurt the celebrity who makes them. If you look -- if you remember back with Barbara Streisand back in 2004, and she went to a blog and she was writing these sort of nutty, ungrammatical -- you know, spelling mistakes left and right. She may have the finest voice of the 20th century, but as a political mind I think she got people sort of shaking their heads.

GALANOS: Hey, Jonathan, how do you best use the endorsement?

MARTIN: You do exactly what Obama did. You get two big things from it.

First, you get media attention. You rack up a lot of coverage on TV news, cable news, which, by the way, carried some of those Oprah events live, which is quite an achievement. And you get coverage in the papers the next day.

Secondly, you use them as an organizational tool. You ensure that every single person that walks into that facility to see Oprah Winfrey does not leave until they fill out a form with name, address, e-mail, and phone number so it`s not just a sort of one-time feel good event. You`re building a list, you`re getting more volunteers, you`re nailing down more supporters to come out and vote for you.

GALANOS: Hey, Rudy Giuliani gets the endorsement, Amy, from Pat Robertson. I say, you know, Rudy`s better off if he gets one from maybe a more relevant evangelical voice, a Rick Warren.

Don`t you think?

HOLMES: Well, Pat Robertson is very powerful in the evangelical community. And he has a lot of people who listen to him. And he`s won a couple of primaries himself.

I think what was interesting about Pat Robertson was that it was unexpected. So that element, again, it made news. It got Giuliani coverage and attention for being able to connect with an important evangelical leader.

GALANOS: And he took some heat for it, though. Some of Pat Robertson`s supporters saying, what are you doing? You`re supporting a pro-abortion candidate? I`m quoting some of his supporters now.

MARTIN: Yes.

GALANOS: So that one caused a little stir.

Peter, you getting ready to get in?

FENN: Yes, I mean, I think there`s a flake (ph) factor, I hate to say, with Pat Robertson. You know, he`s stuck his foot in his mouth on so many occasions starting with 9/11. And so I think his credibility is not as great as it once was. But I think this is all -- you know, this is all -- it points also to problems that candidates have such as problems on abortion or gay marriage and issues like that that Giuliani`s just -- you know, it brings up questions about where he stands, which hurts him.

GALANOS: Yes. I think what we can make out of all this, that endorsement can be a little dicier than we think because you`ve got to watch how you play. It could be for better or maybe worse.

Peter, John, Amy, we appreciate it. We hope to talk to you again soon.

MARTIN: Thanks, guys. Happy caucus.

FENN: Thanks, Mike.

HOLMES: Thank you.

GALANOS: Yes, indeed.

All right. Coming up, can a teenage pregnancy ruin a Disney show, or is it -- "Zoey 101," is it about to add on a new cast member, write her out? Who knows where they`re going with this. We`re going to find out coming up.

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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GALANOS: Well, no matter who wins or loses in today`s Iowa caucuses, at least none of the candidates seem to have it as bad as the Spears sisters. And let`s start with the eldest, Britney.

She`s going through custody lawyers faster than husbands. Her latest team of legal eagles has asked the court if they can drop her client.

Here with the gory details -- and it`s just turning sad -- Julia Allison joins us now, editor-at-large at "Star" magazine.

It is beyond train wreck, isn`t it? I mean, what is going on here?

JULIA ALLISON, EDITOR-AT-LARGE, "STAR" MAGAZINE: Listen, I remember the good old days, when it was controversial when Britney walked into public restrooms with bare feet. We have come a long way since then.

GALANOS: I mean, what has she given now, five depositions?

Yes. She has had five depositions which she has not showed up to. Her reasons have been very creative. The last time she said she was ill. But TMZ actually caught her driving around L.A. aimlessly for hours. And later on, she was caught partying. So clearly, she wasn`t ill, or maybe it was just mentally Ill.

GALANOS: Maybe. I mean, does she even want her kids?

ALLISON: You know, a lot of people have talked about this. Perez Hilton said that she has zero respect for the law and little love for her children.

I don`t believe that to be the case. I think she does love her kids. But I think she`s terribly confused right now, and to be completely honest with you, I think that there is something seriously wrong up here. I think that she has some sort of mental illness that`s spiraled out of control.

GALANOS: Anything to base that on?

ALLISON: Well, I think she had postpartum depression that was really, really bad. And you know, she obviously has a lot of problems with drugs and alcohol. And that certainly doesn`t help do anything but exacerbate the problem.

The fact that she has turned away from everyone in her family, everyone who`s trying to help her, anyone who has good advice or guidance for her, this is all -- these are all signs of someone who is seriously depressed or, you know, whatever.

GALANOS: Where`s mom and dad? If that`s my little girl -- she`s still -- forget the age. If that`s your daughter, you`re doing something to help. Where are they?

ALLISON: Well, I think Lynn Spears right now is trying to deal with little Jamie Lynn, and the pregnancy, obviously. You know, she`s in over her head, clearly. But I think at this point people are no longer making fun of Britney anymore.

They`re just sad because it`s pathetic. I mean -- and I say that in the kindest possible way. Something is seriously wrong here.

GALANOS: Wow.

Julia, we appreciate your time. I mean, again, many have made fun. Many have called it a train wreck. But this is beyond that.

You could be right. There could be some serious mental problems here.

ALLISON: Yes.

GALANOS: And you had also mentioned Jamie Lynn Spears. We want to get the latest on that front.

Joining us now, Bill Maier with Focus on the Family.

All right. We know about the show "Zoey 101." The fourth season`s already been set to go, but now Nickelodeon now waffling a little bit on whether or not they`re going to show the fourth season. And I know they`re going to kick it off with kind of a double episode/movie.

Bill, first off, Focus on the Family, is your position, your organization`s position, that should show should run or not?

BILL MAIER, FOCUS ON THE FAMILY: Well, it`s a great question, Mike. The key issue here is that Jamie Lynn Spears is a role model to millions of American kids. They`re seeing her on this television show, and they look up to her, and many of those girls are going to be aware that she is pregnant out of wedlock.

How does that impact them? Do they want to emulate her behavior or do they say, gosh, that`s not such a good thing? I that I that`s the bigger question that parents need to help their kids answer.

GALANOS: What do you do as a parent? Do you switch the channel or do you use it as a teaching moment for your kids?

ALLISON: You know, a teaching moment is the way to go, Mike. You really want to use these teachable moments in your children`s lives and to say, look, Jamie Lynn made a mistake, a pretty bad mistake, and she`s going to have to live with the consequences of that mistake.

On the other hand, she`s made a very courageous decision to keep the baby. And I think that needs to be praised. But it`s not going to be a picnic for her.

The fact is, you know, even though she`s got a lot of money, the average unwed teen mother, about 60 percent of them never rise above the poverty level. That means their kids grow up in poverty.

And these kids grow up without dads for the most part. And we know that a loving, involved father is the most important protective factor in a child`s life. So being an unwed teen mom is no picnic.

GALANOS: No, it`s not.

You know, you had mentioned that she`s going to have the baby. And she had said her religion teaches her that she should have her baby.

Is it good that she mentions her faith? I mean, it`s good that she has a faith. And most people of faith will say, yes, amen, way to go, that`s good that you`re having the child, although this is not the best situation as it`s played out.

What`s your take on all that?

MAIER: Well, you know, Christianity teaches that all of us as human beings are imperfect, we make mistakes. And sometimes those mistakes are pretty grievous. God offers all of us forgiveness.

On the other hand, there are still consequences that she`s going to have to live with as she raises this child. And we would hope and pray that her boyfriend would make this commitment, they`d get married, they`d raise this child together.

We don`t know if that`s going to be the ultimate outcome here. But I think what we can take from this as people of faith is, yes, we are going to make mistakes in life, there is forgiveness if we`re willing to say we blew it and ask for God`s forgiveness and for the forgiveness of those that we`ve harmed around us.

GALANOS: You know, we just talked about Britney Spears, and where`s mom and dad. How should we take mom and dad in this case, Jamie and Lynn? And you want to -- let`s face it, you want to reach through the TV screen and grab them and go, where are you? For either daughter. Where have you been?

MAIER: Yes, it`s a great question, Mike. And we haven`t had a lot of information on the parents themselves. What information we do know is not necessarily the prettiest.

Really, I think what it does, it speaks to all of us as parents who have kids to say, you know what, we need to be involved in the lives of our kids. We need to take responsibility for their moral training and for teaching them values, for setting a positive example and in steering them towards a course that`s going to be healthy in life, not one that`s going to end up in a train wreck like we`re seeing certainly with Britney and hopefully not with Jamie Lynn.

GALANOS: Hey, Jamie Lynn, twofold question here on whether or not she`s been vilified, but I want to tie this in with the new movie "Juno," the story of a pregnant teen who ends up giving the baby up for adoption.

Pretty good story. All`s well that ends well in that. And she`s the heroine of the movie. Jamie Lynn Spears is no heroine. Are we treating her unfairly?

MAIER: I think there have been some in the press that have been a bit hard on Jamie Lynn. She has admitted that she made a mistake, this was not her intent, and she does want to do the best thing.

And she wants to get married to this guy, she wants to raise this child and be a responsible mom. We have to give her credit for that. But indeed, this is a decision that has grave consequences as she moves forward in life, and we don`t know what the ultimate outcome`s going to be.

GALANOS: Do you like the message of the movie "Juno"?

MAIER: I do like it. It kind of leaves us of with she finally places -- I don`t want to ruin it for those folks who haven`t seen it yet. She does place the child up for adoption.

We don`t know what the consequences from that point forward are. And I do like the fact that the parents in that particular film are not harsh and judgmental, that they are very accepting of their daughter and they`re trying to help her to make the wisest decisions given her situation.

GALANOS: All right. Bill, we appreciate your time. Thank you again.

MAIER: Thanks, Mike.

GALANOS: And coming up, late-night talk shows, they`re back on the air. We`ll take a look at came out on top after the first night back.

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GALANOS: Well, America, last night your long national nightmare finally came to an end. Despite the continuing writers strike, late-night talk shows were back on the air, and David Letterman, he was back and with a beard. Many wondering what was up with that.

CNN`s own Lola Ogunnaike was also in the audience. Besides the beard, here`s what she thought.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID LETTERMAN, HOST: Ladies and Gentlemen, two long months but, by God, I`m finally out of rehab.

LOLA OGUNNAIKE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): It was back on the air last night for David Letterman, despite the ongoing writers strike. Letterman hammered out an agreement with the writers union so his writers could work.

So, with writers in tow, Dave seemed crisp and ready for action. His beard was a running theme, as were the woes of striking writers who delivered his Top Ten list, the top demands of striking writers.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`d like a date with a woman.

LETTERMAN: Number 4, writer and director Nora Ephron.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hazard pay for breaking up fights on "The View."

OGUNNAIKE: Letterman was not alone in his return. All the other late nighters were also on. Jay Leno, Conan O`Brien, Craig Ferguson, and Jimmy Kimmel. Jay was without his writers, but it didn`t seem to slow him a bit. He even got a few laughs out of it.

JAY LENO, HOST: I shot some cell phone footages. This was not pretty. Just to give you an idea how the negotiations are going. Take a look. As you can see.

OGUNNAIKE: Conan also without his writers, supported a beard to rival letterman.

CONAN O`BRIEN, HOST: I look like the character of young Kriss Kringle in Santa Claus is Coming to Town. Check it out.

OGUNNAIKE: There were a few misses for those without writers, but not many. And Leno seemed to relish, going back to his roots.

LENO: It`s fun writing new stuff. You know what I`m doing? I`m doing what I did, the day I started. I write jokes and I wake my wife up in the middle of the night and say, honey, is this funny?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GALANOS: Nice job. You`ve got to love Conan, the "Kriss Kringle" reference. All we were missing was the Heat Miser.

That`s going to wrap things up for us.

I`m Mike Galanos in for Glenn Beck.

From New York, goodnight, America.

END