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Your World Today
Unpredictable Race; Election Probe & Protests; Car Bomb Kills Four & Wounds 52 in Turkey; Seven Killed as Israeli Military Hits Southern Gaza
Aired January 03, 2008 - 12:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HALA GORANI, CNN ANCHOR: Countdown to Iowa. We're just hours away from the first votes of the 2008 U.S. presidential election.
JIM CLANCY, CNN ANCHOR: Who will come out of this race with the momentum and who will be limping their way to New Hampshire?
COLLEEN MCEDWARDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wonder what a caucus is exactly? I'm Colleen McEdwards, live in Des Moines. Think very cold weather game of chess. We will have that coming up in a live report.
GORANI: Also, Kenya's attorney general calls for a recount into a disputed presidential election there, as protesters are kept from the streets.
CLANCY: And a new look for late night television, America's talk show hosts show their support for striking writers and try to find a way to return to the screen.
GORANI: It is 11:00 a.m. in Des Moines, Iowa, 8:00 p.m. in Nairobi, Kenya. Hello and welcome. Our report is seen around the globe this hour. I'm Hala Gorani.
CLANCY: I'm Jim Clancy. From Des Moines to Dublin, wherever you are watching, this is YOUR WORLD TODAY.
Let's take a quick look at the boards and see where oil is as we get started here.
GORANI: OK. As we can see, NYMEX crude at any rating at one penny above $100 a barrel. Yesterday it touched that level but dipped down. Today it has been trading above $100 for a while.
CLANCY: There's a lot of speculation about what is behind all of this. Some of it is a weaker dollar. That is raising the price of oil. Others look at the trading there in New York City and say there is far more trading of oil going on than there is oil consumed and that's raising questions about whether speculators in the market are the ones that are really responsible for pushing oil to this height. We're going to have more on this story a little bit later.
GORANI: All right. We are actually going to Ali Velshi right now with a live report on what's behind the surge. Ali?
ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hala, it just got very loud here just moments before you came here. We took our third run at $100, and oil has now stayed above that level, $100.01. We've gotten as high as $100.05. Yesterday for just a fleeting few seconds, in fact, about 24 hours ago right now, oil hit $100 for the first time, but a lot of the traders around here were feeling that that was not really a real price. It wasn't really a trade. It was higher than it should have been.
Now, this is real trade that's going on back and forth. We're at $100.01, very active, very volatile trade right now. Definitely a sentimental number, that $100, because the rest of it have been feeling it, whether it's 80 or 90, you are feeling it in gasoline petrol prices. You're feeling it in heating oil prices.
The bottom line, as we go into 2008, with some trepidation because if you look at 2008 certainly in the United States the issues were housing prices being low, and energy prices being high. Hala?
GORANI: All right, Ali Velshi there reporting live on oil at $100 a barrel. It stayed above that very symbolic level now for the last hour. We are going to go back to Ali a little bit later for more analysis.
Now, after months of meeting the candidates and hearing their messages, finally, it's the voters' turn.
CLANCY: Yeah, it's about time. The very first contest in the U.S. presidential race taking place tonight in the state of Iowa.
GORANI: Well, it may be a small state but it can give big momentum to campaigns looking for an early lead.
CLANCY: Of course, that explains why the candidates have spent countless hours and countless dollars as well trying to court the vote.
GORANI: This campaign season, there's extra anticipation mixed into the chilly Iowa air because it's a neck and neck race on both the democratic and republican sides.
CLANCY: That, of course, makes turnout crucial. Colleen McEdwards covering decision day from Iowa's capital of Des Moines. Hello Colleen.
MCEDWARDS: Hey Jim. Thanks very much. Hillary Clinton said it this way. It all depends who puts on their coats, warms up their cars and decides to go out to the caucuses turnout, as you mentioned very important here. That's why all the candidates are trying to get the last-minute push out to get people to go out and caucus.
Some of the campaigns are even offering free baby-sitting services or they'll shovel your walk for you, shovel your driveway for you if that's what you need to get out and do your caucusing. No candidate downplaying the importance of Iowa. That is for sure. But they also know that this is really just the beginning. Candy Crowley reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Know how you can tell it's close to being over? They're screaming.
OBAMA: If you believe, let's go change the world and stand with me.
CROWLEY: And they're careening around the state. John Edwards is on a 36-hour non-stop road show.
JOHN EDWARDS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have important work still left to do.
CROWLEY: They're getting all chummy and cheery with the press corps. Armed with a coffee pot, Hillary Clinton helpfully reminded reporters to wear a coat in the cold and then looked down the road.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm going all the way from the caucuses tomorrow through February 5th and expect to be the nominee. So --
CROWLEY: That's the thing about Iowa. Despite the year-long campaign, it's not close to being over. It's close to starting.
BILL RICHARDSON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: All I want to do is have a strong showing in the top three, move on to New Hampshire, move on to Nevada, and then to New Mexico and some of the western primaries.
CROWLEY: That's the other thing about Iowa. Unless you're a prohibitive front runner who implodes --
HOWARD DEAN: And then we're going to D.C. to take back the white house.
CROWLEY: Think Howard Dean. You don't have to win to survive.
JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think anybody comes out of here who exceeds expectations is going to get a ticket to go to New Hampshire and I expect to get one of those tickets.
CROWLEY: Iowa does not decide the race to the nomination, but it shapes it.
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People are going to be listening to what Iowa has to say.
CROWLEY: A few for instances.
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If there ever was definition underdog, look in the dictionary. There's a photo of me right there, underdog.
CROWLEY: If Huckabee beats Romney he becomes more than an interesting blip in campaign history, although still underfinanced. It would not be fatal for Romney but it would weaken him and ensure really interesting Romney/McCain dogfight in New Hampshire.
ROMNEY: With regards to Senator McCain, I think he was just wrong to vote against the Bush tax cuts twice.
CROWLEY: There are endless down the road permutations for democrats.
OBAMA: We need to turn the page. We need to write a new chapter.
CROWLEY: If Obama wins, Clinton loses the patina of inevitability. A New Hampshire poll showing a tie with Barack Obama shows more troublesome. Unless, of course, Clinton loses to John Edwards, producing an Edwards/Obama showdown for the not Hillary slot.
CLINTON: Come out to caucus tomorrow night and together we will make history. Thank you all.
CROWLEY: If she wins, Iowa in the rear-view mirror may turn out to be the beginning of the end for everyone else.
CLINTON: We're ready.
CROWLEY: If she places third, whole new ball game, baby. Candy Crowley, CNN, Des Moines.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCEDWARDS: Well, still to come here on YOUR WORLD TODAY, I will interview a star of the air waves here in Iowa, Kay Henderson. One candidate said he was star struck when he was interviewed by her. What are her impressions of the candidates? What was the biggest campaign gaff here in Iowa? I'll ask her. That and more coming up in just a few minutes.
CLANCY: All right, Colleen, thank you very much for that.
GORANI: All right. Let's check some of the other news making headlines around the world this hour.
CLANCY: We are going to begin in Turkey, CNN confirming at least four people have been killed in Diyarbakir in Turkey, that after a car bomb exploded. Another 52 were wounded, 6 of them seriously. Turkey's officials telling CNN the bomb was detonated remotely as a military convoy was passing. Military personnel are among the wounded.
GORANI: Amateur video provided by Pakistan's Don TV news gives us a new, close-up view of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. It shows her. You see her there, standing through a sunroof as we knew she was when she died, and falling into her car before a blast from a suicide bomb. President Pervez Musharraf has asked British investigators to help in the assassination probe.
CLANCY: Israeli war planes and tanks pounding military targets in Gaza this day, seven militants were killed along with two civilians. Israel says it is responding to an escalation in rocket attacks coming from Gaza, including the deepest rocket strike into Israeli territory by militants.
GORANI: Kenya's attorney general is calling for a recount in the disputed election that has touched a wave of violence in the east African nation. In a statement, Amos Wako also called for a government of national unity. Paul Davies has more on the growing opposition and the increasingly grisly violence in Kenya.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PAUL DAVIES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They march in the townships, from the slums. Opposition supporters determined that this would be the day they would expose Kenya's elections as a sham. Their leaders had promised 1 million demonstrators would gather in Nairobi, delivering an emphatic message to the president whose re-election they reject and the outside world.
But this was what they discovered blocking all roads to the park, riot police with orders that no mass demonstration was to be allowed today. There was a brief standoff, the marchers claiming their right to peaceful protest. But this was not a day for debate. The argument settled decisively, with water canons and tear gas. Well done, that's it, an officer encourages his men as they chase the protesters back to the townships from which they had emerged. In the face of such ruthless government action, the opposition leader, Raila Odinga, was forced to call off his mass rally.
The political uncertainty has seen a return of tribal violence. In the impoverished district of Dandura, a camera man witnessed murder. At the bottom of a picture, a man blunders into the wrong street at the wrong time. He's set upon by members of a rival group armed with machetes and clubs. What happens next cannot be broadcast here but the unarmed man is hacked to death. The camera man, whose identity must be hidden, says many people die like this but the government tries to hide it.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I want the world to know. I want the world to -- I'm playing my part for the citizens of this country. This is at this time Zen of the world. The world belongs to us and we are all humans and this is what's happening in this part of the world.
DAVIES: Violence like this remains restricted to the townships. There are no immediate plans to bring home 7,000 Britain's currently holidaying in the country. British tour operators have now suspended trips to Kenya until the weekend while they wait to see if this turmoil there can be resolved. Paul Davies, ITV News.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: This was a once, of course, known as the stable country in Africa, Kenya. You can see some of the chaos in the streets there.
CLANCY: One side of it, it's got a failed state, Somalia, where Islamic militants are basing their operations. On the other side, Sudan, a fail state. We have been receiving some amazing images from our viewers there. We want to share some of that with you now.
GORANI: Thanks to you, our viewers, who are there sending videos such as this one in, sent to us by Duncan Waswa, a native to Nairobi. He says we're looking at a skirmish in Nairobi's industrial area. You can clearly hear gunfire in the background.
CLANCY: He says the people you see there running are every day Kenyans, clearly running from something or someone. They've got their hands up there. Duncan says many shops are closed, basic commodities hard to come by in these streets.
GORANI: If news ever happens where you are, you can be an I- reporter, too. Go to CNN.com/ireport and don't put yourself in danger, it goes without saying, to take these pictures. Check it out on our website.
CLANCY: Just ahead as we go to a break, we will check in with Colleen McEdwards once again in Iowa.
GORANI: Colleen, what is the latest on tonight's presidential caucuses?
MCEDWARDS: Well, you know, caucuses are a bit like a game of chess. Coming up in a few minutes, Tom Foreman is going to join me here. He's bringing his chessboard so you don't want to miss that.
Also, impressions of issues in Iowa from an important media voice here. I'll have that coming up, too, right here on YOUR WORLD TODAY.
CLANCY: All right, Colleen.
Also ahead, the late night TV comediennes back on the air in the United States but there's still something missing.
GORANI: Yeah, the laughs. America realizes what comedy writers do for a living when they're not out on strike. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CLANCY: Hello, everyone, welcome back to CNN International and YOUR WORLD TODAY.
GORANI: All right. A special welcome this hour to our viewers in the United States, where all eyes are on one state, the state of Iowa.
CLANCY: That's right. Voters from each party just hours away now from deciding who they want to see as the next occupant of the White House, the first to do so in the whole United States.
GORANI: All right. Let's go back to our Colleen McEdwards who is on the ground live in Iowa. Hi, Colleen.
MCEDWARDS: Hey, Jim and Hala, how you doing? Republican candidate Mitt Romney put it this way. He says it's a bit like Christmas morning on this day. He said you want to run down the stairs, check on your present, you hope it's not a lump of coal. After months of campaigning and speeches here, the candidates are finally going to get a sense of what the voters really think.
And with no incumbent president or vice president running this time around, just about anything is possible here. That's what makes it so exciting here in Iowa this time.
The road to the White House, the most wide open that it's been in almost 80 years, more than 80 years, some people are saying. The polls are showing this race is too close to call. At the top of both of the parties, which also makes it so exciting. Nobody knows what's going to happen here tonight.
Let's take a look. Voter turnout, of course, is critical here. Candidates engaging in their final rounds of campaigning ahead of the vote. On the democratic side, Hillary Clinton touted her messages, saying she's the one that has the experience to do the right job. Barack Obama, meanwhile, says he's the real force for change. He's hoping for high turnout at these caucus meetings.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: I'm expecting to do well. We've seen these enormous crowds as we travel across the state in this last week, and the weather has been brutal, so for these folks to be coming out just to hear a candidate at the last minute, it's doubtful that they're not going to go to caucus. And we've got a great ground game. But most importantly, I think the American people are just hungry and ready for change.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCEDWARDS: Okay, so that's what Barack Obama had to say there.
Now, John Edwards has spent the last 36 hours straight, sprinting across the stage. He's literally been on a bus, spent 36 hours trying to see as many voters as he can, getting his supporters also all fired up.
Now, on the republican side, the race is equally unpredictable. Take a look at this. Recent polls showing former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee virtually tied. They have been in a fierce battle for weeks of attack ads and the like. Huckabee went on NBC's "Tonight Show" on Wednesday despite the continuing writers strike to explain why he didn't air one anti-Romney ad.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Taped it, got it all ready, we were going to release it in a press conference. Monday, I just didn't feel right. You know, we had gotten where we are by being positive and talking about where this country needs to be rather than what's wrong the other guys.
JAY LENO, TALK SHOW HOST: While you were making it, did you feel like -- HUCKABEE: I needed to take a shower or something like that? Give Romney a shower maybe? I don't know.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCEDWARDS: Okay. A taste of that right there. Now, some republicans are campaigning in Iowa, but not focusing on it quite as much as the other candidates. We talked about John McCain, for example. He's staking his fortunes in next week's New Hampshire primary. That's a contest that he won back in 2000 and so is national front-runner Rudy Giuliani. He's also focusing on New Hampshire and also the Super Tuesday primaries that will come up later in February.
All right. So, what is really on the minds of Iowans as they head into caucus tonight? Joining us now is someone who has her finger on the pulse of Iowa and has throughout this whole campaign. We are joined by Kay Henderson, news director of radio Iowa. You have talked to virtually all of them, I think, haven't you? Who made the strongest impression on you as a candidate?
O. KAY HENDERSON, RADIO IOWA NEWS DIRECTOR: I think they all have their strengths. Obama from the get-go was a very charismatic candidate. Hillary Clinton, a very solid candidate. John Edwards, a very passionate candidate. On the republican side you had in Mitt Romney someone who is a steady candidate. In Mike Huckabee, someone who will surprise you with his humor.
MCEDWARDS: In what way?
HENDERSON: He can make a quip out of nothing. He also has a way with words. He also has a way of reaching people with emotion. He's a Baptist minister. He knows what a pulpit is and he knows how to use it.
MCEDWARDS: Is that what Iowans like about him, do you think?
HENDERSON: He's a really likable guy. I think that is what has caught on with people, in addition to his set of beliefs in regards to social issues, of course, as many of your viewers may know, social issues are very important to a bulk of the Iowa republican electorate.
MCEDWARDS: Let's talk about those issues because you mentioned a couple of poll numbers, I want to run through them real quick so we know what they are. On the democratic side, for democrats, the war in Iraq ranks 35% for importance in polls. The economy at 27, the health care at 26%, pretty much tied. On the republican side you have the economy on the top at 26%, illegal immigration, 20%, abortion 18%. How do you account for those differences?
HENDERSON: Well, for democrats, early on this year the war in Iraq was far and away the most important issue, so the real change there is that the economy has really bumped up as a concern for democrats. On the republican side, there is a core of the republican base that votes solely on that abortion issue, and also immigration has been an incredibly important issue to republicans. You had a candidate who made it the sole focus of his race in Tom Tancredo and he endorsed Mitt Romney.
MCEDWARDS: Okay. Got to ask you, biggest gaff of the campaign in Iowa?
HENDERSON: Biggest gaff, I guess -- it might be me.
MCEDWARDS: Okay.
HENDERSON: I don't want to admit to that.
MCEDWARDS: What happened?
HENDERSON: Barack Obama called me a couple of days ago, and as you know, he's been firing his people up with a little cheer and so he called me and he said, Kay Henderson, are you fired up? I said, Barack Obama, are you fired up? I didn't call him senator. I'm horribly embarrassed.
MCEDWARDS: Well, a major faux pas, I'm sure he forgave you.
HENDERSON: I think the biggest gaff might be the Mike Huckabee gaff. I think it shows that here is someone who says, you know, I'm attacking Mitt Romney because he's a flip-flopper, and then he proves himself to be a flip-flopper in that he made this attack ad and then he changed his mind. So that really doesn't --
MCEDWARDS: He held a press conference to say I'm not going to show this add ad on the air waves but let me show it to the journalists.
HENDERSON: It really doesn't fit with his, I guess, the authenticity label he was really pressing to people. You are not authentic if you are a flip-flopper is what he charges in regards to Mitt Romney and then he does it himself.
MCEDWARDS: Well, it's been interesting and the results when we start getting them in hours from now, later on this evening, are going to be really interesting, too. Kay, thank you so much for sharing your thoughts on this. Thanks a lot. We appreciate it.
All right. Coming up in just a little while here on YOUR WORLD TODAY, we are going to be playing some chess with Tom Foreman. It's a way of showing you what is going to happen at those caucuses tonight when Iowans bundle up, head out into the cold, go to places like libraries, community centers, sit down with their neighbors and talk a little politics and just maybe shape this campaign moving forward. We'll have that and more just ahead. Jim and Hala, back to you.
GORANI: All right, Colleen McEdwards, thanks very much. We will see you a bit later.
CLANCY: Still ahead, the late night television titans back on the air in the U.S.
GORANI: The funny men and women have returned, even though the Hollywood writers strike is not over. Why many writers don't find this a laughing matter at all. Just ahead.
CLANCY: Also, orange flames shooting into the night sky, hundreds are evacuated in southern Chile, a volcano is erupting.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone, I'm Kyra Phillips at the CNN center in Atlanta. More of YOUR WORLD TODAY in just a few minutes. First, a quick check on stories making headlines here in the U.S.
Right now we are following a six-alarm fire in Lyons, Wisconsin. We are told it's a small appliance store, possibly with homes or apartments above. We will continue to watch it and bring you the latest as we get more, thanks to our affiliate there, WISN.
A person of interest now being sought in connection to a missing hiker in the Georgia mountains. Moments ago, the Union County Sheriff's Department described a man seen walking along the trail with Meredith Emerson. Emerson and her black Labrador retriever have been missing since Tuesday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KIMBERLY VERDONE, UNION COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE: A white male between the ages of 50 and 60 years old, approximately 160 pounds, it was described as he has bad dental. He had a sheath of some sort on one of his legs. An unknown item was in that sheath. Do not know what was in it. Cannot confirm at this time. He had a dark color -- dark reddish colored retriever that answered to the name of Danny. That was seen on the trail yesterday, talking to Meredith.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Rescue teams are on the mountain right now looking for her. Yesterday, they found Emerson's car and a dog leash at the foot of the mountain.
Oil prices rose to a new record today, above the $100 a barrel mark. Live pictures from the New York Stock Exchange. It reached $100.05 before falling back slightly. A new government report showed a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories. Retail gasoline prices have not risen as fast as oil prices over the last months but they're beginning to catch up so brace yourself for more pain at the pumps, folks.
Breaking news out of Turkey right now. A car bomb has exploded in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir. Turkish security officials tell CNN that bomb was set off by remote control as a military convoy passed by. CNN's sister network in Turkey reports four people are dead, more than 50 are wounded. Those numbers given to us by the Turkish prime minister. At least one soldier is reportedly wounded.
The road to the White House, the first weigh station, Iowa. First presidential vote hours away. Today a single digit temperature and double fisted glad handing, candidates are scrambling to get votes in hand. Campaign workers are offering to shovel your sidewalk, baby- sit your kids. There's a statistical tie right now among three democrats, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are fighting for their party's nomination. On the republican side, Mitt Romney in a dead heat with Mike Huckabee.
Manhunt ends in a shoot out. An escaped convict killed when he confronts police. Police in Prince Georges County, Maryland, say escapee Kelvin Polk shot at officers and they returned fire. Shootout followed a day long manhunt. Authorities say poke was taken to a Maryland hospital complaining of chest pains. They say he overpowered five security guards, took their weapons, shot the driver and escaped.
Tell you what, bone-chilling cold up and down the east coat right now, even into Florida, with frigid conditions putting citrus crops at risk. So far, looks like they've dodged a bullet, didn't get cold enough overnight to do much damage. Florida's agricultural commission says it looks like the state's citrus fruit did OK. Vegetables were spared the worst. But they're still assessing some of those areas.
Bonnie Schneider monitoring it all for us.
Hey, Bonnie.
(WEATHER REPORT)
PHILLIPS: DNA evidence clears a man who spent almost 27 years in prison for a crime he did not commit. This afternoon he's expected to be set free from a Dallas County, Texas, prison. He plans to join me live for an interview in the 3:00 p.m. hour of the NEWSROOM if he is released. We're going to talk with him about what it's going to be like to be out of prison. He was put there at 20. Now he's 47.
Meantime, "YOUR WORLD TODAY" continues after a quick break. I'm Kyra Phillips. See you in 30 minutes.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
JIM CLANCY, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back to our viewers joining us from around the globe, including the United States this hour. This is YOUR WORLD TODAY. I'm Jim Clancy.
HALA GORANI, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Hala Gorani. And here are some of the top stories we're following for you.
First, Kenya. The attorney general of that country is calling for a recount of Sunday's disputed presidential election. Amos Wako also called for a government of national unity in hopes of ending this growing violence between supporters of the president, Mwai Kibaki, and supporters of the opposition leader, Raila Odinga. The government now says at least 300 people have been killed in that violence.
CLANCY: Pakistan's president says he's not fully satisfied with his government's inquiry into Benazir Bhutto's assassination, according to the Associated Press reports. Pervez musharraf also denying accusations that government security forces were in any way involved in her death. Mr. Musharraf has asked British investigators to help with their probe.
GORANI: U.S. presidential candidates are making a last-minute push to get out the vote in Iowa. In just hours, the very first contest of the race will get underway there. Three Democrats are in a statistical dead heat to win their caucuses, while two Republicans are running neck and neck for their top spot.
More now on a story we brought you earlier. A new record for oil prices. Oil futures jumped for a second day in a row, this time after a U.S. government report on U.S. oil stockpiles. Ali Velshi is at the New York Mercantile Exchange. He joins us live with the latest.
What's behind this latest push? Because we were firmly above 100 for a while there, Ali.
ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I have the answer, Hala.
Half an hour ago, you and I were talking and this place was nuts. It was going crazy. It was the third run at $100 a barrel for oil. Now look how relaxed it is. I have found the answer to energy. Look at this table. I don't know if you can see this. This is what is driving energy price. Swedish fish, Twizzlers. These traders are taking a bit of a break right now.
There's a bit of a lull in the day. I mean $99.35. This thing has been going above $100 a few times. Is it going to close above $100? Is this really what oil should be trading at?
What we've got right now is a very tight supply and demand situation the world over, Hala. We have probably about a half a million barrels a day more than we actually use. That's how much more we produce. So when you have storms in Mexico, like we had bad weather in Mexico, some problems at a port in Nigeria, it just takes a little bit of oil off the system and it pushes the price of oil up.
And that problem is not going to go away. We continue to grow our need for oil in China, in India, in other countries. The U.S. continues to use a lot of oil. That problem is not going to go away. So when you ask specific reasons for why oil is at $100, you could list a few of them, but the bottom line is, we have a problem in creating enough oil for the amount that we use in the world.
GORANI: Now, I'm not sure for oil traders candy is the kind of fuel you want to put in your body anyway because there might be a little bit of a crash there. But what about the longer term picture, Ali, because what people really want to know is, are we looking at three-digit oil for the coming year or longer?
VELSHI: Well, oil trades here, you know, for several months out. When you look at the prices going up, you know, every month out, like these are February contracts that are trading at this $100 level. March is $99, April is $98, May's $97, June, $97, July, $96, then August, $95, to December into the $94s. In fact, most people who follow oil closely say we shouldn't be anywhere in the 90s or, for that matter, in the 80s or probably even in the 70s. The long term estimates by the U.S. government, by international bodies that follow oil is in the 60s and 70s.
But again, Hala, this is a market. If someone is prepared to hand over $100 for a barrel of oil, you are going to pay the petrol price that comes out of that, the heating oil price that comes out of that and the cost of transportation. So what the experts say versus what is happening are two very different things. No, no one thinks we've got $100 -- I shouldn't say no one. Most people don't think we've got this kind of oil for the long term, but some people are talking about $110, $125, $150.
GORANI: All right. And the impact that it will have on the economy, not just in the United States, but around the world.
Ali Velshi, thanks so much for that live report.
Jim.
CLANCY: Well, as Ali was just telling us there, there are a lot of things that these traders are looking at, as those prices fluctuate. Violence this week in Nigeria's oil city. Port Harquart (ph) contributing to the price surge. But unrest there just one of many factors, as we said, that the analysts watch every day. Minute by minute. Alphonso van Marsh has more on Iraq's role in these rising prices.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ALPHONSO VAN MARSH, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): Iraq, which sits on top at least 6 percent of the world's oil, could have helped slow down the dramatic rise of oil to $100 a barrel. But the lack of security and a post-Saddam Hussein power struggle over who controls vast oil fields in northern Iraq has, instead, analysts say, contributed to the record price.
MANOURCHER TAKIN, CENTRE FOR GLOBAL ENERGY STUDIES: When the military invasion took place, and people assumed that within a few months when the problems are over, with the new government, they will go back and Iraqi production will be again more than 3 million barrels per day. Where as, unfortunately, it has been less than 2 for -- less than 2 million for more than a year -- two or three years now. But in the last few months, it has improved.
VAN MARSH: Iraqi and U.S. officials say, in the last few months, the so-called troop surge, citizen policing and reconstruction money has seen the number of violent attacks plummet. But not enough, it appears, to affect oil markets.
Tensions between Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds and Turkmen are still making investors nervous. Of particular concern is the jostling over who should control the oil-rich region around Kirkuk. The U.S. secretary of state, on a visit to Kirkuk last month, said Washington is helping bring ethnic rivalries down to a simmer.
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: The United States is very interested in the future of this very important province. Kirkuk is very critical. VAN MARSH: Also adding to the speculation over oil prices, December's Turkish attacks Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq. Turkey says it's acting against terrorists. With the help of U.S. intelligence, Iraqi officials are condemning what they call incursions into Iraqi soil. And all of this adding to the perception that the stability needed to bring more barrels of oil out of northern Iraq, well, that might be harder to achieve than it seems.
Alphonso van Marsh, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CLANCY: There is word now about the fate of a Saudi Arabian blogger who was arrested last month. An interior ministry spokesman says Fouad al-Farhan could soon be set free. No details about any charges or release date have been announced. It was said earlier he was being held for violating the kingdom's laws and he was being held for interrogation. In an e-mail posted on his website, alfarhan.org, he says he faced arrest for writing about political prisoners in Saudi Arabia.
GORANI: Well, on cnn.com, we've written about this story, of course. And "Inside the Middle East's" new blog is also featuring this story and asking for your comments. Go to cnn.com/international. And there you have the web page for the blog. And you can include some of your comments and reactions to the arrest of this Saudi blogger.
CLANCY: A lot of people interested in this case, Hala, because, you know, it's about freedom of expression. President Bush going there next week.
GORANI: Right. Next week, as well. And it's not what this al- Farhan individual has on his blog. It's the fact that perhaps some are saying he might be -- he might be getting silenced right now, which is kind of the issue. But do visit our web site. We have a lot more on it.
CLANCY: All right. Still ahead, when you think of fun and Mexico, you might think of a white, sandy beach and drinking something out of a coconut.
GORANI: Right, you might think that. Sounds nice. But what about ice skating? It's Mexico City's newest attraction. And you can likely ice skate where our Colleen McEdwards is as well.
CLANCY: Yes.
COLLEEN MCEDWARDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: When you think of Iowa, you don't necessarily think of chess, do you? Well, what would an Iowa caucus look like on a chessboard? Tom Foreman's going to check that out when we come back in just a moment.
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GORANI: America votes. Welcome back. You're watching YOUR WORLD TODAY and you're with CNN International.
CLANCY: A lot of people around the world trying to get an idea today of where Americans, what Americans are thinking, who they might be, well, pointing a finger to for their next president.
GORANI: And the reason the world is watching is because it really matters to the world who ends up being elected in this country. This time, courting voters in Iowa more or less over. Now all efforts are on getting them out to the caucuses.
CLANCY: Let's return now to the first U.S. presidential contest of this long campaign season.
GORANI: The caucuses begin just hours from now and Colleen McEdwards is watching the clock tick down in Des Moines.
Hi, Colleen and Tom.
CLANCY: Hey, there's Tom.
MCEDWARDS: Yes, it is ticking down. I got Tom Foreman with me here because, you know, if you're scratching your head about what a caucus is and how it actually works, this is the guy we need to talk to.
It's all a game of chess, right?
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It is. Well, yes, kind of. It's a really goofy game of chess. But, look, if this where the caucus room tonight, this is how it would work. Big room. You're going to have people or signs representing the candidates that people like. And everybody gathers in the middle of the room. That's how the Democrats do it. Republicans, very simple. They go in, do a straw poll and they split. That's it. Pretty simple.
But on the Democratic side, they all gather like this. And at some point the boss says to everybody, OK, show me your preferences. Show me who you like. So what will happen is some of the folks will move like over here to this candidate or this area. They're going to say, we're standing over here, physically do this. Some people move over here and say we like this person. Some people are going to move over here and say they like this person over here. And then some people will move over here.
Let's say that in this process, when they're done, the boss looks at it and says, a lot of people over here, a lot of people over here, a lot of people over here. I'm looking for 15 percent. If you don't have -- because he's counted everybody in the room. And he says if you haven't got 15 percent of the people in your corner, your candidate is non-viable. Oh, my gosh, look over here. This candidate doesn't have 15 percent. This candidate not viable any more. Boom, out of there.
So now these people will send emissaries over who will say, you should join us. And this one may come over here and join them. And this one may come over here and join over here. And this one may come over here and join over here. They don't have to stay. I mean this guy could say, I don't like any of you, I'm going to remain undecided. Or he could just say, you know, look, I got a horse at the caucus, I'm out of here. I'm going home. They don't have to stay.
But once they've done that, then they're going to use a mathematical formula. They'll count all the viable candidates and the viable supporters of candidates. And from that, they will say, this many delegates go to this candidate, this many go to this candidate and this many go to this candidate. Then they go through a series of conventions where they pass on that support until ultimately at the national level Iowa will say who they like. Basically, what we will end up reporting are the percentages.
MCEDWARDS: Well, and you know what's important is who are these people. Because this is not every Iowan. I mean this is a really -- these are -- this is a really small segment of the small state of Iowa. These are people who like love jury duty, right? I mean (INAUDIBLE). This is not a representative group.
FOREMAN: Well, it's representative in the sense that they're neighborhoods. Some people who live in the neighborhoods. But, yes, these are people who are politically involved enough to say, I'm going to be there at 7:00 at night. There's no absentee in this. If you're in the military, if you're gone, if you're sick, if you have to work late, you're out. You can't be part of it.
So you have to be willing to take this time. You have to be able to take this time and go to this process and be involved. Last time about 125,000 Iowans were involved in this. So our presidential process for 300 million people began with about 125,000 people here. They're expecting maybe about 150,000 this time. A lot of first- timers. People very excited about it. But, you're not, not a big sampling.
MCEDWARDS: It matters to the campaigns, though, right, because it means fund-raising, it means momentum. We're looking ahead to New Hampshire. We're looking ahead to Super Tuesday. This is just the beginning.
FOREMAN: Absolutely. This is the beginning. This is where you get started a little bit.
Now, interestingly enough, though, this is not a huge indicator of who will win the nomination. It's about a 60 percent indicator. So it indicates somewhat, but plenty of times the person who they choose here does not become the nominee. So it's something for the campaigns to build on, although there's a lot of talk right now, many people saying that this may be something of a mirror of the general election, that we may very well come out of this caucus saying, it's not really clear who's up front. Yes, somebody has a little bit of an edge, but not a giant edge. We'll have to see that in the coming hours.
MCEDWARDS: All right, we will see it. Tom Foreman, thanks a lot for bringing this to us. Really appreciate it.
FOREMAN: I have to get back to my chess game.
MCEDWARDS: Thanks a lot. Yes, go back to your chess game.
All right. And, of course, stay with CNN for all the coverage of the Iowa caucuses and this campaign. We're going to have the results from the caucuses as they come in. We've got CNN's Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Lou Dobbs, Soledad O'Brien, leading our election coverage team. That is going to be right here on CNN. So keep it here.
And, you know, as for the race for the White House races along, we're going to have a new program as well on CNN International. Starting Friday, Jonathan Mann hosts a new weekly show. "The Campaign Trail" will wrap the week in U.S. politics. And this week he's going to be looking at the results in Iowa and look at what's going to happen after Iowa.
All that and much more right here on CNN.
Jim and Hala, back to you.
GORANI: All right, Colleen McEdwards live in Iowa. We'll be seeing a lot more of Colleen throughout the day and the week, of course.
Now it is both beautiful and frightening. A strong volcano in southern Chile has been spewing ash and molten lava for days now.
CLANCY: Now this is an eruption that has been relatively small, at least for now. As Rupert Eveland (ph) reports, residents near the mountains in small Chilean villages hope things are going to stay that way. Here's why.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RUPERT EVELAND, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): For as long as it spews smoke and ash into the sky, its threat to those on the ground is contained. But such is the unpredictable nature of volcanos that no one is taking any risks. Hundreds of people have been evacuated from villages in the area. This Spanish tourist says he had been told that rocks were falling, breaking wind screens on cars. He was glad to get out.
With a cloud of debris up to 3,000 meters high, the drama of Mount Llaima is being witnessed across the region. The (INAUDIBLE) has headed east into neighboring Argentina. Flights into a nearby city have been canceled. The mayor of the town of Tomuko (ph) says no one has been hurt and is proud of the job being done to limit the risks. Everyone here is holding their breath and hoping that the spectacular event unfolding in front of them doesn't develop into an example of nature's destructive power.
Rupert Eveland, ITV News.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: We're going to be back in a moment.
CLANCY: And when we do return, a warm holiday season in Mexico not stopping people from having fun on the ice. We have details ahead.
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CLANCY: Whenever I think about Mexico City, one of the largest cities in the entire world, I always think first and foremost of ice skating, right?
GORANI: I think of ice skating wherever I am in the world. And if you don't, you should because Mexico City has the largest ice rink in the world, believe it or not. At least according to local boosters.
CLANCY: Becky Anderson went there to find out what it's like. It's a pretty slippery story. Watch this.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice over): Children slip and slide while their parents glide, none of them too gracefully, around Mexico City's newest and most unusual leisure facility. Even though the temperature is more conducive to sunbathing, these people have headed to the ice rink.
Well, would you believe it? It's 24 degrees. We're in Mexico City and I am on an ice skating rink. How about that for turning change on its head?
On the ice, it was pretty clear that the locals are enthusiastic, yet slightly less than expert converts to the cold. It was there that I almost bumped into the manager. I had just one question for him.
This is Mexico City, the biggest ice rink in the world. Why?
FERNANDO BACELIS, ICE RINK MANAGER: Well, we have -- this Christmas and the people are just happy to be here and it's for free (ph).
ANDERSON: Mexico is a country filled with dramatically different landscapes. Dense jungles with rivers running through them nestled next to the picture-perfect beaches. Directly under the country, it is, as I discovered, no less fascinating or beautiful. And this winter, it's water, frozen water, that's keeping the population entertained.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE, (through translator): I'm here with my sons. We're having so much fun.
ANDERSON: This was the first time that the massive rink was opened to the public. It was part of an ongoing campaign to make a city known for smog and traffic jams more fun. And judging by the smiles on the faces of the people that I saw, it seemed to be working.
Becky Anderson, CNN, Mexico City.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: That will do it. What?
CLANCY: Nobody slipped. Nobody slipped.
GORANI: No, no, no, maybe they didn't film it.
All right. That will do it for this hour. I'm Hala Gorani.
CLANCY: I'm Jim Clancy. Stay with CNN.
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