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American Morning

Clinton Comeback: Defies Polls to Win New Hampshire; The Comeback Kids: Clinton, McCain Win in New Hampshire; Big Mac Attack; Stocks Rough Start

Aired January 09, 2008 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Stunning turn. Hillary Clinton rebounds to win New Hampshire.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Over the last week, I found my own voice.

CROWD: Mac is back! Mac is back!

ROBERTS: McCain rises again.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We sure showed them what a comeback looks like.

ROBERTS: How they pulled it off. How the polls got it so wrong. Live with the candidates on this special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: And good morning. Thanks very much for being with us. It is Wednesday, January 9th. I'm John Roberts.

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Kiran Chetry. It was hard to tell in that split shot who had the bigger smile, John McCain or Senator Hillary Clinton. They both have a reason to this morning for sure.

ROBERTS: You know, looking at some of the newspapers this morning, you know, "The New York Post" is never subtle about it. Speaking of very large smiles, look at this -- "Back from the Dead".

CHETRY: Right, and not to be undone, the other tabloid "Daily News," "Who's crying now?" A lot of talk about Senator Hillary Clinton's show of emotion and whether or not that pushed her over the edge in New Hampshire. So a lot to talk about this morning, two new winners and two improbable political comebacks in the granite state.

The polls going in said no way. But as people were heading to bed on the east coast, Hillary Clinton claimed victory over Barack Obama by just two points. Exit polls showed she won back women voters. We're going to speak to her live in our next hour of AMERICAN MORNING.

And his campaign was left for dead but over the summer, but independent voters set Senator John McCain over the top in New Hampshire.

ROBERTS: After riding a wave of momentum after Iowa, the tides have now turned. Senator Barack Obama finished two points behind Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire despite polls that had given him a double-digit lead just a day before. Senator John Edwards was third, more than 20 points behind.

Mitt Romney says he now has two silvers and one gold, the gold he won in Wyoming. But the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts finished second in New Hampshire. Iowa's winner, Mike Huckabee, had a slight bump, did better than it looked like he was going, to but still finished way behind the frontrunners in third place.

CHETRY: This morning the campaigns are moving on, heading into the next round of primaries. Senior political correspondent Candy Crowley joins us from Manchester, New Hampshire this morning with more on a look ahead. Good morning, Candy.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning. They are literally, as you say, off to the races yet again. I got to wondering this morning as I woke up how many people went to bed last night without actually knowing what happened. Well, we've got some news for them.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Standing by, spread out here on the grounds of New Hampshire --

CROWLEY (voice-over): Hold the phone, it's all different now. Twin victories in New Hampshire have set the '08 presidential race on its head. One win for a campaign left for dead.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Tonight, we sure showed them what a comeback looks like.

CROWLEY: And another win for a campaign on the brink.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.

CROWLEY: Women voters who preferred Barack Obama in Iowa flocked to her in New Hampshire, drawing the Clinton campaign believes by a newly accessible, more open candidate.

CLINTON: Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process, I found my own voice.

CROWLEY: Hours before the polls closed, Clinton's staff talked about antsy donors and upcoming changes. They seemed startled by her victory. No more so than camp Obama which sailed out of its win in Iowa into a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, all of which disappeared when the votes came in. Still, they are formidable foes who will meet again next in Nevada and South Carolina and beyond. SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We know the battle ahead will be long. But always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change.

CROWLEY: On the Republican side, John McCain proved himself the old warrior he is. Losing most of his money and his staff last summer, McCain chose to stand and fight in New Hampshire with a tough guy truth teller campaign they loved in 2000 and loved again in 2008.

MCCAIN: I listened to you, I answered you. Sometimes I argued with you. But I always told you the truth as best as I can see the truth. And you did me the great honor of listening.

CROWLEY: McCain's victory makes a well healed front runner Mitt Romney a two-time loser. Romney looks now to his home state of Michigan to bail him out.

MIT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, another silver. And it's -- I'd rather have a gold but I got another silver.

CROWLEY: The Republican race is now officially in chaos with Iowa's winner, Mike Huckabee, placing a respectable New Hampshire third, and Rudy Giuliani waiting in the wings for a contest on friendly territory. And though John Edwards and Bill Richardson journey on, the Democratic race looks like an epic battle between two megawatt superstars. Buckle up. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CROWLEY: That ride now takes Republicans to Michigan and Democrats to Nevada. But right now, we are looking at a very tight campaign schedule. A lot of states ahead. So you we'll see these candidates on the Democratic side bouncing from state-to-state -- John.

ROBERTS: Oh -- hey, thanks very much, Candy. Sorry about that. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are going to be joining us live in our next hour. Senator Clinton joins at 7:20 Eastern. Senator Obama will be live at 7:30.

Over the weekend, polls showed Hillary Clinton was way behind Barack Obama, as much as 11 points in some polls. So how was she able to pull it off? What put her over the top?

Bill Schneider is CNN's senior political analyst. First question, Bill. You've done some crunching of the numbers and some postulating here and you think you've come up with an answer for why these polls were so off.

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: OK. What we did was we looked at our poll of polls, which was eight polls taken just before the primary. And what did they show? What they average was Obama getting 37 percent in the polls. What did he actually get yesterday? Thirty-seven percent. The polls averaged Edwards 19 percent. He actually got 17, so the poll was very close. But here was the discrepancy. The polls average Clinton showing at 30 percent. She actually got 39 percent. She was the big discrepancy. She did almost 10 points better than the polls estimated. What does that indicate? That a lot of voters were making their minds up at the last minute, and they swung overwhelmingly to her. Why? Well, we could speculate on that for a long time. Might have had something to do with her show of emotion, but they did break for her at the last minute.

ROBERTS: Yesterday morning, when we were at the diner in Manchester, we talked to a lot of people who had not made up their minds who were going to go vote that morning. I think there's a statistic, isn't it? That about 38 percent of people who voted at least in the Democratic primary made up their minds in the last three days.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. There were a lot of late deciders. Anything could have swayed them but they appeared to have decided overwhelmingly for Clinton because the polls got the other two candidates almost exactly right.

ROBERTS: We got some really interesting information from our exit polling. In Iowa, Barack Obama won among young people. He also won among women, but Hillary Clinton turned the tide on him last night.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. He did win among young people but not among women. She reclaimed her gender base. Women voted for Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, I don't see it up here, but --

ROBERTS: Here it is.

SCHNEIDER: Here it is. Clinton 46, Obama 34. That's a very big margin for Hillary Clinton, and it means the gender gap is back. Women delivered for her.

Now, one of the argument is, maybe that was because of her show of emotion. But I think it might have also something to do with the top issue among Democrats voting in New Hampshire.

ROBERTS: And that was?

SCHNEIDER: The economy. I don't mind I'm not going to say stupid or call your name. The economy was the top issue, and voters who said their vote was driven by the economy voted 44, Clinton, 35, Obama. This was a big issue. It gave Clinton a big lead. And women are very sensitive to economic concerns because many of them feel economically vulnerable.

ROBERTS: All right. Well, interesting too to see that analysis of the undecideds perhaps breaking very late for Hillary Clinton.

SCHNEIDER: Right.

ROBERTS: Bill, thanks for the analysis.

SCHNEIDER: OK.

ROBERTS: Kiran?

CHETRY: All right. Well, the next critical test will be next Tuesday. That's the Michigan primary. Hillary Clinton, by the way, is the only major Democratic candidate on the ballot in that state. Obama and Edwards withdrew in protests after Michigan moved up its primary date to a date not sanctioned by the DNC.

On Saturday, January 19th, it will be the Nevada caucuses and on the same day the Republicans have their primary in South Carolina. The Democratic primary in South Carolina is the following Saturday, January 26th. Florida closes out a busy month before the primary is Tuesday, January 29th.

Well, weather once again a major story across the Midwest. Another deadly tornado in Arkansas. One man was killed in Pope County, about 80 miles northwest of Little Rock. High winds flipped over his mobile home. It rolled 50 yards. Storms also brought heavy rain and flash flooding. At least three people were killed in northern Indiana. It could be Friday before the waters recede there. You see people using emergency boats to get around in parts of that state.

Jacqui Jeras is in for Rob Marciano tracking extreme weather from our weather update desk. And, of course, every cause has an effect. We've been enjoying the unseasonably warm temperatures down in the east coast, but it is wreaking havoc in the Midwest.

JACQUI JERAS, AMERICAN MORNING METEOROLOGIST: Yes. Today is not going to be nearly as bad, though, as the last two days in terms of extreme weather, with tornadoes and damaging winds. We've got one spot that we're watching right now, some wind damage is going to be real likely. And the severe thunderstorm watch has been issued across upstate New York.

There you can see the area of concern. I'm going to zoom in here and show you this bow echo, the squall line right here. This one has been producing some incredible winds as it moves through Rochester, 75 mile-per-hour wind gusts were reported there. So the severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect, includes you in Syracuse, New York, and this whole line is pushing off to the east. So if you live say, in Utica or over here in Saratoga Springs and Schenectady, be aware that that line is headed your way.

Now the winds are very strong today. Right now they're coming in out of the southwest. We're going to start to watch those winds change northwesterly throughout the day today as that front passes through, and there are going to be gusts as strong as 40 to 55 miles per hour and that alone can cause a little bit of damage.

Take a look at some of the current wind speeds out there. We're looking at 23 miles per hour sustained winds right now. And that's in the Cleveland area and also over towards Pittsburgh, about 28 miles per hour. A few showers on the tail-end of this front. There you can see them all the way down to the southeast. If you have travel plans today, be aware, it's going to get ugly later on this morning, we think up and down the east coast. We'll have more details on where you can expect trouble for your travel. That's coming up at the bottom of the hour -- Kiran.

CHETRY: Jacqui, thanks so much.

ROBERTS: Stock markets in correction falling 10 percent from recent highs. The culprit -- growing fears of a coming recession. Find out why some people believe we are already there. You're watching the most news in the morning here on CNN.

And reports of Hillary Clinton's early demise in the presidential race is greatly exaggerated, the New York senator with the stunning upset in the New Hampshire primary. A closer look at just how she did it. That's ahead. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now, together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: Hillary Clinton's campaign for president has new life this morning. Her victory in New Hampshire defied all of the polling that had her trailing Barack Obama by double digits. She was the overwhelming choice among women. Just the opposite of what happened in Iowa.

And on the Republican side, Senator John McCain beat Mitt Romney. Not surprising because this is right in line with most of the polling. He had 37 percent of the vote to 32 percent for Romney and Huckabee finishing in third place. The race still wide open, though, on both sides. Jim Vandehei, executive editor of "The Politico" joins us this morning. Hello, Jim.

JIM VANDEHEI, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, THE POLITICO: Great to be here.

CHETRY: I wish you took an I-Report of your reaction when they finally called it for Hillary Clinton last night because it would be interesting to see what a lot of the political reporters were thinking at the time. It was totally different from what most of the polling showed in the days before this race.

VANDEHEI: I mean, let's face it. I think all the pundits, the press, the pollsters, and even operatives in Hillary Clinton's campaign kind of looked like fools last night. We were all wrong. I mean, I spent some time in New Hampshire. I saw the same big crowds that Barack Obama had. You could really feel the energy there. I went to a Bill Clinton event where he couldn't even really sell out the room. It really had the feel of a state where you're going to see an Obama victory, and there was so much talk of a Clinton shakeup. The truth is the voters spoke, and they spoke more differently than what all the polls were picking up. It's clear now. We are in for a long and very unpredictable race. Probably all of us should spend a little less time with very stern predictions about what's going to happen and look at the facts on the ground. We now have two candidates who can draw big crowds, who can bring in a bunch of different voters.

Hillary Clinton stood very well with women, very well with Democratic partisans.

CHETRY: Right.

VANDEHEI: We have Barack Obama who's bringing in a lot of new people into the process, doing really well with really young voters and also independents. So any state where there's independents, Barack Obama can probably do pretty well. Hillary Clinton can do really well where there are a lot of Democratic partisans...

CHETRY: Well, Jim --

VANDEHEI: So this is going to be a great race going to February 5th.

CHETRY: Jim, let me just ask you this. We looked at some of the indicators, the polling, the early polling beforehand clearly was not accurate indicator. Our crowds an accurate indicator of who eventually shows up on voting day to cast their ballots?

VANDEHEI: Clearly, no. Because the crowds for Barack Obama were much bigger in New Hampshire, particularly the events that I went to. And I think what you need to look at is a series of things. You can look at polling, but polling can only tell you so much. You can look at crowds. Crowds can only tell you so much.

Perhaps, the crowds were so big because people were really pumped about what happened in Iowa. They were really happy to see a black man win in an almost all-white state, and they want to see what this was all about. And maybe it was just a curiosity. I want to hear his message. But at the end of the day, they may have been convinced by Hillary Clinton's argument that I have more experience.

I'm very skeptical about all this punditry that it was all about her almost crying in an event a couple of days ago that that's what turned voters. I really think that voters are much more sophisticated than that. I think their reasoning was probably much more complex.

We won't really know until we can talk to more voters and see more results in other states down the road. But it's probably a combination of Hillary Clinton making a very powerful argument, having a pretty good performance in the debate that a lot of people in New Hampshire did see. And also, having a great organizational structure in the state. She spent a lot of money and a lot of time making sure that she had the best and the brightest on the ground...

CHETRY: Right. VANDEHEI: ... so they could maximize turnouts in some places where she was strongest.

CHETRY: Jim, let's listen to what she said about the reasoning behind her victory yesterday.

VANDEHEI: OK.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I want especially to thank New Hampshire. Over the last week, I listened to you. And in the process, I found my own voice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: So there she is, Jim, talking about that. Even Terry McAuliffe, a top Clinton adviser, said in part that she made up ground because of her display of emotion on Monday.

VANDEHEI: Again, I don't think that he would know either. I mean, he's looking at the same polls and talking to the same people. I think we'll know sometime what exactly is working for her. You know, Hillary Clinton has tried out a bunch of different messages, clearly talking about this contrast of change and I have the experience to actually implement change, might be an effective message for her. We don't know because there is such a compressed schedule between what happened in Iowa and what happened in New Hampshire.

The beauty of the process at least going forward now is everyone can take a break, and both candidates can make their argument over a more sustained period. You can go to different geographic places. We can see how voters react. There's no doubt now that we're going to February 5th and most likely beyond with a wide open Democratic race because both of these candidates clearly have money. Both of them have momentum. Both of them have an ability to bring people into the process, to organize...

CHETRY: Right.

VANDEHEI: ... and to do very well on the national scene.

CHETRY: I don't want to leave before getting a chance to ask you about John McCain. He pulled out a win in New Hampshire. How does he translate that to South Carolina?

VANDEHEI: Well, the thing to look for is, does a Republican establishment rally behind him? He needs to get more money, and he needs to prove that he can do well with Republican partisans. If you look at the exit polling data or the entrance polling data from New Hampshire, what you see is he did particularly well with independents, which we all expected, and he did well with moderate and liberal Republicans.

Romney did much better with people who like Bush and people who are more conservative in the Republican party. As this process moves forward, McCain has to show that his electability argument and his argument that, I'm the right guy to deal with terrorism in Iraq, that that can appeal to economic, social and national security conservatives and that he can become not necessarily as the establishment candidate but he has to have some of the establishment rally around him.

Because just like Democrats now, we go to a bunch of different states who have different character to all of them and certain candidates have an edge in certain states. The thing to watch for would be the next contest next Tuesday in Michigan. Can McCain bring in the independents over there? Can he win in Michigan and use that momentum to help him in South Carolina and Florida?

CHETRY: Jim Vandehei, co-founder and executive editor of "The Politico," thanks for being with us this morning.

VANDEHEI: Take care. Have a good day.

CHETRY: It's interesting from what Bill Schneider told us as well. That people didn't necessarily side with McCain on the issues but they like his character.

ROBERTS: Yes. You know, personality over the issues last night. That's pretty interesting.

Hey, lots of other news this morning. In addition to politics, a dangerous confrontation at sea between U.S. warships and Iranian speedboats. And this morning, there's dramatic new video. You'll see and hear what happened ahead.

Plus, we're tracking the candidates this morning after another stunning election night. A look at what's ahead later on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: New this morning out of the Middle East, President Bush landing in Israel just a couple of hours ago. There you see him stepping off the plane. Security extremely tight. This is President Bush's first visit to Israel since taking off. He's hoping to restart the peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians.

And there's some dramatic video of a confrontation between Iranian speedboats and U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf. It happened Sunday in the Strait of Hormuz. In this navy recording, you can actually hear the threatening exchange between the two.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

U.S NAVY SHIP: Inbound small craft: You are approaching a coalition warship operating in international waters.

SMALL CRAFT: You will explode after a few minutes.

U.S NAVY SHIP: You will explode after a few minutes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: The top Navy commander in the gulf says the Iranian fleet threatened to blow up the Navy convoy. Just heard it here. The incident went on for 20 minutes. President Bush calls it a "provocative act."

ROBERTS: Very unusual incident that happened there.

Coming up to 25 minutes after the hour, Ali Velshi here "Minding Your Business." Boy, if you're paying so much attention to politics as you were yesterday, you missed it.

(CROSSTALK)

ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. And I wish -- I'm kind of hoping for the day this year when I get to tell you things are getting a little better in the markets, but they're not. Take a look at what markets did yesterday.

The Dow, again down, 1.86 percent. The Nasdaq down. Nasdaq has really been giving it off this year, 2.36 percent. The S&P down almost two percent. The Dow has lost 676 points since the beginning of the year. The Nasdaq hasn't had a good day at all. Now, let's look at this.

The markets are now in what's called a correction,and that means 10 percent off of their cyclical or recent highs. In the case of the Dow and the S&P, those were all-time highs that were set on October 10. The Nasdaq was a high set on October 9. The Nasdaq was much higher five years ago, six years ago. But take a look at that.

Those drops -- that's what you've seen in the market since October. So we are off to a very rough start. This correction is worrisome to some people. Now if you're looking at stock markets, you're trading your stocks, the fact is that futures are up today, which means everybody hasn't given up on this market. It's not a capitulation out in the market, but we have heard talk of recession.

I'm going to come back later and tell you a little bit about some of the things that are causing that, including increased housing woes. But Merrill-Lynch came out yesterday and said we're not headed for a recession. We're already in one. It began in the last quarter of 2007. The thing about recessions, as you know, is you only officially learn about them once you're in them or once they're passed.

CHETRY: We were out there in New Hampshire yesterday.

VELSHI: Yes.

CHETRY: Economic issues huge for a lot of the voters we talked to.

VELSHI: That's right. And the tough part here is the candidates are going to be called upon to give some solutions even though they won't be taking off for another year. This is going to be big deal. We will be hearing a lot about this this month in the State of the Union Address and from the candidates.

ROBERTS: You know, we're talking issues with the candidates again this morning. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, maybe we should ask them what they would do if they were president right now. Yes.

(CROSSTALK)

VELSHI: Why don't you. This isn't just about mortgages now. This is the whole economy.

ROBERTS: Yes. OK. Ali, thanks very much.

VELSHI: Yes.

ROBERTS: You're watching the most news in the morning here on CNN. The first test of the south is coming up politically. Will faith-based voters give John McCain another look now after his win in New Hampshire?

And it's a whole new ball game. Clinton and Obama all tied up now. Where the race and the messages go from here. Plus, the other top stories of the morning when AMERICAN MORNING comes right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will strengthen America. I will stand up for the values we believe in, and I'll make sure that America is as it is always been the hope of the earth. Thank you so much.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: There he is. Once again Mitt Romney yesterday saying, I would have hoped for gold. I got silver. I was hoping for gold but we're moving on and we're still in it.

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Yes. A big question for Mitt Romney today is how long does he continue to dump a lot of his own fortune into this campaign which has lost the two big opening contests in states. It looked like he was going to win just a couple of few weeks ago. He did rack up a win there in Wyoming.

CHETRY: That's right. And it looks like Michigan was his next hope for. His dad was actually governor of the state for awhile. So following all of this for you on this Wednesday, January 9th. It's a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING, I'm Kiran Chetry.

ROBERTS: And good morning to you, I'm John Roberts. It's now wide open race. Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain won the nation's first primary last evening.

Despite what the poll said going in Clinton eked out a close two- point win over Barack Obama in New Hampshire. Exit poll show that she won back some of her bread and butter voter's women. We're going to be speaking live with her coming up in just about an hour's time. And independent voters put Senator McCain over the top in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney in second place, followed by Mike Huckabee.

The polls going into the primary were dead wrong, at least on the Democratic side. Exit poll showed that women in New Hampshire went back to Hillary Clinton. Clinton won nearly half of the women's vote in New Hampshire while Barack Obama got a third. Seniors and lower income workers also said they supported Clinton. Independent voters were the deciding factor on the Republican side. Most who voted for the GOP say they went for John McCain.

CHETRY: And we've got all sides of the primary covered. Suzanne Malveaux was following the Democrats. She was with the Obama campaign last night. Mary Snow was with the Romney campaign.

We start with Suzanne. You talked -- last time we spoke with you in the last hour about some of the disappointment there. But how will that defeat impact, the Barack Obama strategy going forward, Suzanne?

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And good morning, Kiran. Obviously, what's going to have to happen is he's going to have to broaden his base. He went well; he did well with the independents, although some of them obviously going to McCain. But he's really going to have to focus on the traditional Democrats. Those -- the working blue collar Democrats, some of the older voters that particularly in those primary states where the primaries are closed. They don't allow the independents to weigh in and to vote. And so he has got to have to go after that group a lot more aggressively.

The other thing that we're going to see and we saw it last night, is that they are still going to rely on what works for them. What works for him. It's that motivational, inspirational message. We heard the cadence last night. Yes, we can, yes, we can. And he went after specifically the idea that Hillary Clinton is calling for a reality check that this was some sort of false hope that he is offering people.

He is saying that this is real opportunity, real hope, trying to tap into the potential that people get very excited about and that is what really brings out that crowd, that enthusiasm. They're really going to use that strength. But they're also going to have to get specific about his plans and they're also going to have to address some of the charges from the Clinton campaign that he doesn't have enough experience when it comes to dealing with foreign policy and other issues.

Kiran?

CHETRY: All right. Suzanne Malveaux for us covering the Democrats. Thanks so much. Well both Hillary and Barack Obama will be joining us in the next hour. We're going to be speaking with Senator Clinton at 7:20 eastern and Barack Obama follows at 7:30.

ROBERTS: Well, Senator John McCain is sure riding high this morning after a five-point victory in New Hampshire after being nearly counted out left for dead just a few months ago. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN MCCAIN, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When the pundits declared us finished, I told them, I'm going to New Hampshire where the voters don't let you make the decision for them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: Mitt Romney is once again in second place but he says the voters are letting him know what is important to them.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROMNEY: We hear time and time again a similar message. And that is that people are frustrated. They're concerned about the future of our country, particularly our leadership in Washington.

CNN's Mary Snow was with us Romney camped last night as the results were coming in. Obviously, not a tremendously happy place to be. Certainly not as happy as the McCain side of the fence. So the big question this morning going forward Mary is Mitt Romney has got more than $17 million of his own money in this campaign. Only been able to win Wyoming. How much further does he continue to go and dump his own fortune at this campaign?

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, for today, he's focusing on how much other people are willing to put into his campaign. He's going to be heading to Boston for a fundraising event before heading to Michigan. But then, you know, he has said that he is willing to put more money in to his -- of his own fortune into his campaign.

But you know he's trying to put a silver lining on the second- place finishes. He adapted this message saying that he's the Washington outsider. But, now, really his fortune, if you will, really rests in Michigan. His father was the governor there in the 1960s. Mitt Romney said his family name is golden there. And this is the state that he's really going to have to win here, many people believe. But he's been vowing to go forward and even the money that he's raising today.

His campaign says will go toward a general election. As for Michigan, their McCain camp is already turning up the heat and in recent days have been touting endorsements there. For John McCain, what's going to be interesting now is to see the race in South Carolina because, you know here, he and Mike Huckabee have had a kind of a united front when Mitt Romney has come after them in these attack ads. They've had nice things to say to each other. Now that they're really facing some stiff competition in South Carolina, we'll see how the dynamic play out between John McCain and Mike Huckabee.

ROBERTS: All right. We'll keep a close eye on it. Mary Snow for us in Manchester, New Hampshire for us this morning. Mary, thanks.

So here is where the candidates go next. Let's take a look at the nominating calendar. The Michigan primary coming up next Tuesday for the Republicans. Hillary Clinton -- sorry and also for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton, the only Democrat on the ballot there. Obama and Edwards withdrew in Michigan. Moved up its primary.

Then on Saturday, January 19th, the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina's Republican primary. Democrats hold their primary in South Carolina the following Saturday, that's the 26th of January. Then the Florida primary is Tuesday, January 9th. Then, head on to super duper Tuesday, February 5th, when more than 20 states have primaries.

You know, interesting when you look at Michigan and Florida, they were not sanctioned by the DNC because they went before the February 5th date as decided by the DNC without permissions. So they've been sanctioned now in terms of their delegates.

CHETRY: It will be -- and we're talking about this morning, its interesting to see if they're not steam rolled into changing their minds about Florida at least because it's a huge state.

ROBERTS: Yes because it's a big state. Michigan has got a fair share of electoral votes too. But you know its delegates that count and they can do what they want with the delegates at this point.

ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I remember one of these Super Tuesday, not super duper Tuesday.

CHETRY: Our graphics say Super Tuesday. There's no room for the duper yet.

CHO: We'll be working on that for the later hours.

CHETRY: Alina Cho joins us now with the very latest, nonelection-related news. Good to see you.

CHO: Hey, there, Kiran. John, good morning and welcome back. Good morning, everybody.

One of the two inmates who staged a Hollywood-style escape from the New Jersey jail is back behind bars this morning. You had to know this was going to happen eventually. On a tip police found 20-year- old, Jose Espinosa in an apartment just six blocks from the jail. The other inmate, Otis Blunt, so far, has not turned himself into authorities. Espinosa and Blunt escaped you'll recall on December 15th by digging through their cell walls and covering the hole with posters of bikini-clad girls much like in the movie, "The Shawshank Redemption." They left a note mocking a jail guard and that guard killed himself last week.

We have new developments in the investigation of a teenager suicide after an Internet hoax. It's a story we've been following here on AMERICAN MORNING. You may remember it.

The "Los Angeles Times" is now reporting that federal prosecutors are considering charging a mother with defrauding the social networking site, MySpace. They say she created a false account and communicated with a 13-year-old girl Megan Mier by pretending to be a 16-year-old boy. Now Mier committed suicide after being rejected by the person she thought was the boy. The woman is actually the mother of one of Miers' former friends. She denies sending any of the messages or even knowing about them. Meanwhile, Missouri lawmakers are pushing to make it a felony for an adult to harass a child on- line.

The parents of that missing British girl, Madeleine McCann are in talks for a movie deal even as they remain prime suspects in their daughter's disappearance. "London Daily Express" says in conjunction with a book deal, the movie book package could be worth as much as ten million pounds or $20 million. The movie would tell the story of the disappearance and the search for young Madeleine who vanished from a Portugal resort just days before her 4th birthday. Critics of course say the parents who are official suspects are just in it for the cash. But the McCann spokesman says profits from the movie would help the search efforts.

And we end with some good news to report about the 12-year-old girl who was the sole survive of a plane crash in Panama. Her name is Francesca Louis. You remember the story right? Her mother says her daughter is doing well since coming home to California. She is resting comfortably and actually getting out of the house occasionally with her family. She was in a plane that went down in Panama just before Christmas, killing her friend, her friend's father and the pilot. Francesca spent two days in the wreckage before being rescued.

And for the second time in just over a year, people in Wisconsin and their social security numbers printed on envelopes. The State Health Department says private vendor sending out Medicaid brochures made the mistake. About 260,000 envelopes eventually went out. The vendor says it will pay for credit monitoring for one year. In December 2006, more than 170,000 people were sent tax booklets with their numbers on the cover.

CHETRY: A lot of them are pretty insensitive about it. Except they made a big to-do about it last year and protecting yourself and then they went and did it again this year. I can't believe it.

CHO: That's right and they're trying to sort it all out now.

ROBERTS: Alina, thanks very much.

CHO: You bet.

ROBERTS: 20 minutes now to the top of the hour. She asked the question that almost brought Hillary Clinton to tears on Monday in New Hampshire. But who ended up getting her vote. New word this morning. Her story coming up just ahead.

And he pulled up a stunning comeback to take New Hampshire, but where can John McCain win next? The uphill battle with some loyal members of his own party. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE HUCKABEE, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Ladies and gentlemen, we've had the time of our lives. If there's any sadness tonight, its not where we finish because frankly we're pretty happy about that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

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CHETRY: Welcome back to the most news in the morning. New images now of the mass devastation across the Midwest. Forecaster say close to 40 twisters swept through Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, and Wisconsin since Monday night, killing at least three people. This is an aerial view right now of the devastation in the town of Wheatland, Wisconsin. About 50 miles south of Milwaukee. Authorities say 55 homes were damaged by a tornado with winds as high as 150 miles per hour.

Well, the fire department says that a person was inside this home and killed after a tornado tore it to pieces. It's in Appleton, Arkansas. Witnesses say that tornado sent the doublewide mobile home 50 yards, sent it smashing into trees nearby.

And here a stunned family checks out there front yard in Wheatland. The homeowner says an overturned trailer was resting on the family van. A pickup truck smashed and the family's boat was in the neighbor's yard. Also a five-car garage completely wiped out. It's 44 minutes after the hour. Jacqui Jeras tracking extreme weather for us. Hopefully we're going to see this extreme weather tamp down a little bit in the coming days, Jacqui.

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ROBERTS: 40 minutes now, Kiran, before the top of the hour. An interesting note this morning about that show of emotion from Hillary Clinton in Portsmouth, New Hampshire and the woman who asked the question that brought it on. A lot of speculation whether the near- tears episode moved women voters to Clinton side in the end.

Well it turns out this morning we're finding out that the woman who asked the question, Marianne Pernold Young, an undecided voter at the time, actually ended up voting for Barack Obama. So the woman that many are saying asked the question that could have turned the tide, apparently, not turned herself. We're hoping to talk to Pernold Young a little bit later on this morning. We're reaching out to her and we'll ask her what ultimately prompted her to vote the way she did if we can get a hold of her.

It's a race for your vote and your money, but some of those who want to be president may not be able to keep up financially. Who's spending fast and whose money may not last? That's coming up. And through the Bible belt and beyond -- does John McCain had the right stuff to sway some key pieces of the Republican puzzle. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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JOHN EDWARDS, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I want to be clear to the 99 percent of Americans who have not yet had the chance to have their voices heard, that I am in this race to the convention, that I intend to be the nominee of my party.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: 10 minutes now to the top of the hour. Senator John McCain pulled off a monumental comeback to take New Hampshire last night, but he has always had trouble firing at the base of his party. Well his big win forced evangelical voters in future contest to take another look at him. Joining me now is Republican strategist Ralph Reed. Good morning to you, Ralph. Late night last night and early morning today.

RALPH REED, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Good morning.

ROBERTS: Sorry to do that to you. But it was fascinating last night.

REED: Good to be with you. It's incredible.

ROBERTS: Let's take a quick listen to a little bit about what John McCain said in his victory speech last night about doing so well in the state of New Hampshire.

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MCCAIN: When the pundits declared us finished, I told them, I'm going to go to New Hampshire where the voters don't let you make their decision for them.

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ROBERTS: Was the last-minute surge in New Hampshire for John McCain, but you know very familiar and in some ways friendly territory back in 2000. He won that ride over George Bush. But looking ahead to South Carolina whole different landscape there for him.

REED: You know John was really unchartered waters. We've never seen anything like this since the rise of the primary in the 1960s. Now in the history of those primaries, on the Republican side, no one has ever, not even Reagan has won Iowa and New Hampshire in the same election site. Not surprising that you had two different winners. What is surprising is that if you go back even say six, seven weeks ago, most people were counting McCain out. He had imploded the previous summer. And mike Huckabee was an asterisk to single digits.

Never before in the history of the Republican Party have two people who were not frontrunners at that point, who were really, let's be honest, largely counted out by the chattering class come back and win victories this big.

ROBERTS: But when we go into South Carolina on the 19th, that you a much greater population of conservatives and religious conservatives as well, would the evangelicals perhaps go to John McCain because he did so well in New Hampshire or would they stick with Mike Huckabee as they did in Iowa?

REED: At least based on the current polling that we have and admittedly this is pre-New Hampshire, South Carolina is really the mirror image of New Hampshire. In the respect that number one, you go from evangelicals being really an insubstantial part of the electorate in New Hampshire to being the dominant constituency in South Carolina. In Iowa, it was 60 percent of the vote. In 2000 in South Carolina it was 45 percent. With Huckabee on the ballot, John, I don't think it's unreasonable that half of the vote could come from born-again evangelicals.

ROBERTS: You don't think that they would go to McCain.

REED: Well, they broke 2 to 1 for Huckabee in Iowa and I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they would break that heavily in South Carolina. We'll just have to see.

ROBERTS: Let's talk about the Democrats for a second. Let's play a little bit of Hillary Clinton's victory speech last night. Boy, she was happy. Take a listen.

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HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: Just before we went on this morning, Ralph, you said that you would stayed up last night, with basically your mouth hanging open to your knees, stunned by what was going on. How would you characterize her comeback?

REED: Well, it was really extraordinary. And she did it with really two key developments within the electorate. The first was unlike Iowa where Obama won women, women really carried Hillary Clinton to victory. She won women by 13 points, 47 to 34. She lost men by 11. With women being slightly a larger percentage of the electorate, that's how she got it done.

Second way she did it, and this is critical as she heads south, she won it with voters making less than $100,000 a year. So, Hillary Clinton, while she lost people with PhDs and graduate degrees and the well to do, she did well among that 75 percent of the electorate that's making less than $100,000 a year. That bodes very well for her going forward if she can keep it up.

ROBERTS: Historically speaking, how would you characterize her comeback there?

REED: One of the most incredible comebacks in the primary race that we've ever seen. I put it on par with George H.W. Bush in 1988 coming back and win it in New Hampshire. It's on par with George W. Bush winning in South Carolina eight years ago.

ROBERTS: All right. Well, we'll see where the race goes from here. But no doubt, it's going to be fascinating.

REED: Fasten your seat belts. ROBERTS: Ralph Reed, always good to see you. Thanks for coming in.

REED: Good to be with you.

ROBERTS: Kiran?

CHETRY: Protecting your child from meningitis. You need to do it, but do you need to do it much sooner than you might have thought. Dr. Sanjay Gupta has the information for you coming up in our next hour.

Also becoming the leader of the free world isn't free. Piles of cash being spent by the candidates. So who's in danger of running out of money? We're going to take a look ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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ROBERTS: Coming up on two minutes now to the top of the hour. So who can go on from here? Some candidates spent more than a million dollars in just the past week, just in New Hampshire on television ads alone.

Our consultant on campaign spending says Mitt Romney led the way spending almost $1.5 million since New Year's Eve and close to 800 ads including a two-minute network spot on primary eve. Victory came cheaper for John McCain under a million dollars for 704 spots. But check out Mike Huckabee here. He held on to his wallet. Iowa's winner spent $41,000, just $41,000 in New Hampshire. Ron Paul spent much more money than him. By the most recent estimates from the Federal Election Commission, Huckabee is near the bottom in fundraising and yet still doing so well.

On the Democratic side, money well spent for Hillary Clinton about $1.2 million on 814 ads. Barack Obama spent about $800,000. John Edwards under $300,000 but the Clinton campaign has raised three times as much since the race started, Kiran.

CHETRY: All right. Well, the next hour of AMERICAN MORNING starts right now.

ROBERTS: Comeback kid.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: Thank you so much.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: Hillary Clinton's upset in New Hampshire.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: Let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: The race for the White House turned upside down.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We've been asked to pause for a reality check.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: We're live with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. And the Mack is back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MCCAIN: We sure showed them what a comeback looks like.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: The candidates, the issues, and the road ahead on this special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.

And good morning. Thanks very much for joining us on this Wednesday, January 9th. I'm John Roberts.

CHETRY: And I'm Kiran Chetry. And boy, what an exciting night last night. Outcomes not expected at least if you were tracking the polling.

ROBERTS: We thought we had an exciting story on Friday after the Iowa caucuses, but now it gets even better.

CHETRY: It does. What a difference a week makes. Two winners and two improbable comebacks in New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton proving all of the polling wrong and pulling off a win over Barack Obama by just a few points. His campaign was left for dead over the summer, but New Hampshire's independent voters put John McCain over the top sending one time frontrunner Mitt Romney to another defeat. Now, he is off to Michigan with new life for next Tuesday.

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