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American Morning
Clinton Comeback: Defies Polls to Win New Hampshire; The Comeback Kids: Clinton, McCain Win in New Hampshire; Interview with Hillary Clinton
Aired January 09, 2008 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: Hillary Clinton proving all of the polling wrong and pulling off a win over Barack Obama by just a few points. His campaign was left for dead over the summer, but New Hampshire's independent voters put John McCain over the top, sending one-time frontrunner Mitt Romney to another defeat. Now, he is off to Michigan with new life for next Tuesday's primary.
Senior political correspondent Candy Crowley joins us from Manchester, New Hampshire this morning. I'm sure depending on whether you won or lost last night, you're either savoring the victory or looking ahead.
CANDY CROWLEY, SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely. I mean, all of them I can say are looking ahead. One of the things we can say about New Hampshire voters is they have left this race muddled on both sides -- Republican and Democrat. But they also left a very clear message. New Hampshire is not Iowa.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Standing by, spread out here on the grounds of New Hampshire --
CROWLEY (voice-over): Hold the phone, it's all different now. Twin victories in New Hampshire have set the '08 presidential race on its head. One win for a campaign left for dead.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Tonight, we sure showed them what a comeback looks like.
CROWLEY: And another win for a campaign on the brink.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.
CROWLEY: Women voters who preferred Barack Obama in Iowa flocked to her in New Hampshire, drawing the Clinton campaign believes by a newly accessible, more open candidate.
CLINTON: Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process, I found my own voice.
CROWLEY: Hours before the polls closed, Clinton's staff talked about antsy donors and upcoming changes. They seemed startled by her victory. No more so than camp Obama which sailed out of its win in Iowa into a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, all of which disappeared when the votes came in. Still, they are formidable foes who will meet again next in Nevada and South Carolina and beyond.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We know the battle ahead will be long. But always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change.
CROWLEY: On the Republican side, John McCain proved himself the old warrior he is. Losing most of his money and his staff last summer, McCain chose to stand and fight in New Hampshire with a tough guy truth-teller campaign they loved in 2000 and loved again in 2008.
MCCAIN: I listened to you, I answered you. Sometimes I argued with you. But I always told you the truth as best as I can see the truth. And you did me the great honor of listening.
CROWLEY: McCain's victory makes the well-heeled front runner Mitt Romney a two-time loser. Romney looks now to his home state of Michigan to bail him out.
MIT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, another silver. And it's -- I'd rather have a gold but I got another silver.
CROWLEY: The Republican race is now officially in chaos with Iowa's winner, Mike Huckabee, placing a respectable New Hampshire third, and Rudy Giuliani waiting in the wings for a contest in friendly territory. And though John Edwards and Bill Richardson journey on, the Democratic race looks like an epic battle between two megawatt superstars. Buckle up. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY: One thing I can assure you this morning is that, in fact, all -- most, if not all of these campaigns are, as they say, retooling. Looking at what has worked so far and what hasn't. And also where they're going to go. They have those February 5th primaries coming up. Twenty-two of them. So, now, their time is really of the essence. Back to you all.
CHETRY: So Candy, what of that buzz before the actual results came in about Clinton's retooling and about possibly getting some new advisers in there, changing the way the message is delivered if nothing else?
CROWLEY: It sounds like it's still going to happen although it's being spun a little bit differently. And that is, you know, look, we're taking on more personnel. We are taking on some of the staffers that have left campaigns that have folded their tents. This, they say, and it's right. This is how you build a campaign.
They are, again, going to compete in an awful lot of states over the next two or three weeks, and they need more staff. So, before when it sort of looked like they were trying to -- they were struggling to find a message, they were struggling to find a way to go forward, they're now saying, look, we are going to bring on new people. We are going to go forward with a much larger staff and some changes.
CHETRY: All right, Candy Crowley live for us in Manchester this morning. Thanks.
ROBERTS: Well, the next contest in campaign '08 is in Michigan next Tuesday and it holds some significance for the Republicans, but the center of the political universe now shifts to South Carolina and the voting block many people will be focusing on, African-Americans.
Dan Lothian is in Colombia, South Carolina, with more on -- but the momentum up north will carry on down south. Good morning, Dan.
DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, John. Well, they really do hope to build on that momentum here in South Carolina, that crucial African-American vote. Fifty percent of Democratic primary voters here are African-Americans, so there will be a real battle for that vote.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LOTHIAN (voice-over): African-Americans in South Carolina are very aware of the power of their vote in the state's upcoming Democratic primary.
TODD SHAW, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA: If a Democratic candidate is going to make headway in the deep south and this being a bellwether deep south state, you need the black vote to do that.
LOTHIAN: And two candidates, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have been aggressively courting that vote, creating an interesting dynamic that Shaw says has divided the African-American community.
SHAW: There is both the electability question with Obama and the sense that there's another Clinton on the ticket.
LOTHIAN: Loyalty to the Clintons, long-time allies of the black community versus Obama, a relative unknown. At this Colombia barbershop, Damon Hardy says he's supporting Obama but as he gave me a much needed haircut explained why some blacks are still waffling.
LOTHIAN (on camera): Your other friends out there, what's the sense?
DAMON HARDY, OWNER, BLAC BOC'S: It's like they want Obama to win but they don't want their vote to be wasted on someone who they don't think is going to win. They don't really think Obama has a chance, so they're voting Hillary Clinton because of her experience.
LOTHIAN: Do you think that's going to change though when people start seeing that white people are voting for him?
HARDY: Oh, yes. That's going to change a lot. LOTHIAN (voice-over): Senator John Edwards won the South Carolina primary in 2004, but the political landscape has changed in his native state. The battle between a message of experience or change has energized African-Americans here, even as some South Carolinians try to decide which way to go.
LOTHIAN: Which way are you leaning right now?
IDELA ISRAEL, SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC VOTER: Right now, I'm not too sure, but I think it's going to be Obama.
LOTHIAN: Back at the barbershop, this Obama supporter is optimistic but not overly confident.
HARDY: Hillary has a good chance too, now.
LOTHIAN (on camera): Yes.
HARDY: She has a great chance.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LOTHIAN: What we saw happening in New Hampshire now, both the Clinton and Obama camps have sophisticated ground operations here. They've been sending volunteers in to barbershops and to beauty shops in the black community, beauty shots especially important here because a big chunk of that African-American vote are black females.
ROBERTS: Dan, and we saw women breaking overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton yesterday in New Hampshire which was a bit of a surprise because Barack Obama slightly edged her out in Iowa. Any sense on which way women will go this time, Dan?
LOTHIAN: Well, no sense. I mean, you can look back at the polling that took place prior to New Hampshire. But as you were talking about this earlier, all of the polling that was done before last night, it's essentially irrelevant. So, yes, over the past few days, we've been seeing some of that vote from the black females breaking towards Obama, but it's all up for grabs now.
ROBERTS: Well, you know, the posters were saying, hey, we're not irrelevant. We've got the Republican race, right? Dan Lothian for us this morning in South Carolina.
LOTHIAN: That's right.
ROBERTS: Dan, thanks very much.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are going to join us live later on this hour. Senator Clinton arrived home in Chappaqua overnight. She's going to join us at 7:20, just less than 15 minutes from now. And Barack Obama will be following live from Nashua, New Hampshire, after that -- Kiran.
CHETRY: Thanks, John. Well, time now to check in with our AMERICAN MORNING team of correspondents for other stories new this morning.
Stock markets got off to a rough start in 2008. The Dow tumbling more than 600 points in the New Year. Is a recession coming? Or in some cases, people are saying it may already be here. Ali Velshi is at our business update desk. Hi, Ali.
ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Kiran. Not a great way for presidential candidates to have to start off 2008 having to answer questions about what they would do about a potential recession. We already know that most of our viewers think we're in out. Merrill- Lynch saying yesterday we're already in one as well. And the group, the arbiter of recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research, saying there's a better than 50 percent chance that we're headed for one. Let's take a look where markets have been since January 2nd, just about a week into trading.
The Dow is already down 5.1 percent. The Nasdaq giving up eight percent, and the S&P down 5.3 percent. This is one week. The Dow has lost 676 points in one week. What's interesting here is if you look at what was going on in October, remember day after day after day, we were setting new records on those markets. If you take a look at the market highs from October, the Dow is down 1,576 points. Nasdaq down 371. The S&P down 175. That's more than 10 percent for the levels of all of those markets which means we are in what is called a correction.
When markets lose 10 percent from their recent highs, that's called a correction. That's got people worried about it. We will continue this conversation partially because new housing numbers yesterday indicate that we may not see -- we may actually see the biggest decline in home prices in the first quarter of 2008 that we've seen in a long time. Some people are predicting that we may not see a relief in home prices until the end of 2009. The CEO of Fannie Mae is saying maybe 2010, Karen.
CHETRY: All right. Ali Velshi following the latest for us on that. Thank you so much.
Also, there's some news this morning about vaccines. Vaccines for children including one product (ph) in one for meningitis to protect much younger children. CNN's chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta is at our medical update desk with more information for us on that. Hi, Sanjay.
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, good morning.
You know, when you talk about meningitis, which is specifically talking about is an infection of some of the cerebral spinal fluid and the linings around the spinal cord and the brain. It can be an awful problem on people who get high fevers up to 100 to 103 degrees. They can get irritability as well, loss of consciousness, seizures. Those are some of the symptoms.
The problem is that you have two types. You have bacterial and you have viral. Viral typically clears up on its own. But bacterial meningitis can have some longer lasting symptoms, and there isn't a vaccine approved for babies. Babies who can get this particular disease, bacterial meningitis, there's not a vaccine out there right now. There's been a lot of interest obviously in developing one, and there is some new research this morning coming out of Britain, coming out of Canada saying there may be a vaccine. It is still early in clinical trials, but at least -- at least initially, it appears to be safe. It appears to be effective.
As things stand now, Kiran, who gets this meningitis vaccine are typically kids who are older, when they get around 11 years old. So around the sixth grade, for example, 11 to 18-year-olds, but again, no vaccine approved for children under 2. Kiran, we hear a lot about this on college campuses and a lot of situations where kids are clustered together. But still babies get this particular problem and a vaccine would be of huge interest in this community.
CHETRY: Another thing of huge interest was a concern about a link between certain vaccines, those that contain mercury or mercury derivatives, and autism.
GUPTA: Yes.
CHETRY: And now there's new information that basically in California, they removed mercury from all vaccines and they're still seeing autism rates on the rise. Can you explain this for us?
GUPTA: Many people expected the rates to go down. As of 1999, the way this played out, they started to remove the merosal, which is this mercury derivative you're talking about, from many of the vaccines and they expected the rates to go down. But they haven't.
And take a look at the numbers here. If you look specifically within a few-year time gap, in 2004, it was three per thousand. 2007, it was four per thousand. These are small numbers, though, Kiran, but they're relevant. Again, because if the merosal was the culprit, a lot of people would have said that should have led to a decrease.
There's a lot of context here. And obviously, it could take a lot of time describing it. But, you know, we talked to a one-child psychiatrist who says -- points to this particular study and says this study is some proof that, in fact, the merosal -- or that autism did not arrive through a vaccine. I think it's probably not that easy. I think this is not the final word.
A couple of things to keep in mind. All vaccines did not lose the merosal up until 2002, 2003, meaning people were still probably getting some of this mercury derivatives even a few years ago. Also, the particular study did not look at children under the age of 3. And as you know, Kiran, as I know, sometimes autism symptoms can present earlier than age 3. So this is not the final word, but an interesting study nonetheless, Kiran.
CHETRY: And any closer to finding out other causes of autism?
GUPTA: It does appear to be still a combination of genetics and environment. And I say that because people say that kids may be born with a potential to develop autism and then something in the environment triggers it. What exactly that trigger is? That's a huge area of investigation still, and you know, a lot of people looking into that, Kiran.
CHETRY: Sanjay Gupta for us. Thanks so much.
GUPTA: Thank you.
ROBERTS: Thirteen minutes after the hour. How did Hillary Clinton gain nearly 10 points in New Hampshire seemingly overnight? Will tell you why the polls were so far off. Coming up.
And from the lows of Iowa to flying high again in New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton joins us live fresh off of her big primary win. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Well, it was amazing win for Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire last night, considered to be on the ropes after a loss to Barack Obama in Iowa. Senator Clinton bounced back in the granite state.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: So is the Democratic ballot for president now for real? I'm sure it was all along. But how does it change the game this morning? And how did Senator Clinton do it? She joins us now from Chappaqua, New York, getting probably -- a what? -- a few minutes' rest in your own bedroom before you got to get out there again and get back on the campaign trail to South Carolina?
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: That's true. It's just a few minutes of rest, but it's great to be home. I'm so excited about the win last night. It was a great moment for me, and I think it really demonstrated what the people of New Hampshire have time and time again. They take a hard look at everybody. They asked a lot of tough questions, and they render their judgment. They're famously independent and they sure showed it last night.
CHETRY: Here's what the New York tabloids had to say this morning, the "Daily News" saying who's crying now? And "The New York Post" -- back from the dead. You know, you couldn't talk to an adviser yesterday before the election who wasn't saying that you were going to lose in New Hampshire. What do you think changed between the polling and the voting that brought you a win?
CLINTON: Well, I was I guess about 15 points down, and we had a debate on Saturday that really helped to clarify a lot of the issues in this campaign. And I campaigned really, rally hard across New Hampshire, answered hundreds of questions. Really had a lot of personal experiences with voters, covered as much of the, you know, record that I'm presenting to people as I could and talked about my vision and my dreams for America's future.
And I went out to see some of our poll workers in a couple of places starting before dawn yesterday. I felt really good. You know, I don't pay a lot of attention when people say that I'm up or when people say that I'm down. I sort of, you know, take my own measure of what voters are doing. And I came back from going to all those polling places and I really believed that I had a very good chance to win. Nobody else believed it, but all day, I did. And I'm very grateful that the people of New Hampshire gave me that victory last night.
CHETRY: You know, you talked about the message getting out there. But perhaps, it was also the way the message was delivered. In fact, a lot of people in the last 24 hours in the campaign talk of New Hampshire, what's your display of emotion. Let's take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, I have so many opportunities from this country. I just don't want to see us fall backwards, you know? So -- you know, this is very personal for me. It's not just political. It's not just public. I see what's happening, and we have to reverse it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: You know, even your top advisor Terry McAuliffe said that you made up ground in large part because people had a chance to see your human side. Do you think that that pushed you over the edge in New Hampshire?
CLINTON: Oh, I don't know what all the factors were. But I'm really glad that I had a chance to say what I believe with all of my heart that politics isn't a game, it's not a horse race. It's about people's lives. You know, that's why I do what I do. It's obviously really, really hard to get up every day and, you know, go out and stand up for people who don't have a voice, don't have an advocate. Sometimes they're just rendered invisible.
But that's what I think I'm supposed to be doing and I've done it for 35 years. And there was a -- just a really wonderful moment there when, you know, people I think got a sense of why I do what I do and why I think it's so important and why I'm going to wage this campaign for the future of our country and to give everybody the same set of chances that I was given. That's what I believe should be really the American birthright so that everybody gets to live up to his or her God-given potential.
CHETRY: It is interesting, though, because Governor Romney has teared up in interviews. We've seen our current president also become emotional and be moved to tears at times. But so much was made over the fact that your voice wavered a little bit in that response to a voters question. Do you think it's a double standard or a little bit harder because you're a woman to show you're a strong leader but also be able to show some of your human side?
CLINTON: Oh, I don't think so. I don't think anybody doubts that I'm a strong leader. I think that, you know, people know that I can lead. I have the experience to lead. And I believe over the course of these four days in New Hampshire, more people, not just in New Hampshire but around the country realize that, you know, the reason I do this is because I love this country just so profoundly, and I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that it does fulfill the promises.
We need to deliver on all of the change that everybody talks about. And when the cameras turned off and the speeches are done, what have we actually accomplished for people to give them a better life? That's what I care about.
CHETRY: Another one of the big issues, in fact, the number two issue among voters polled with Iraq in New Hampshire. You opposed the troop increase when the president postponed it, even introduced legislation to try to reverse it. Since then, the attacks have fallen by 60 percent and a lot of observers say that the surge is working. Do you acknowledge that the surge is working now?
CLINTON: Well, I have the highest admiration for our young men and women in uniform and I always assumed that they would in greater numbers be able to suppress a lot of the violence that, unfortunately, has plagued the Iraqi people and resulted in so many deaths and injuries. But that was not the purpose of the surge. The purpose of the surge was to try to convince the Iraqi government to make the tough decisions that so far it has not made.
So I don't believe that that is a real justification and we've had such a terrible year in the loss of American lives. Even though the violence is now down, 2007 was the worst year for American casualties since this all began. So I still believe that nobody is better than the American military, but it's time for us to begin to withdraw our troops and to tell the Iraqi government they do not have a blank check any longer. They've got to start, you know, making the tough decisions that only they can make for their country and that's what we'll support them in doing, but we're going bring our troops home.
CHETRY: You know, your husband, Bill Clinton also said that the media failed to be as tough on Barack Obama when it came to Iraq policy, accusing Obama of shifting his opinion on the war and calling it a fairy tale. Obama fired back by saying that he felt that your campaign was distorting his record and that it's because you're frustrated. Do you think that your husband, Bill Clinton, was playing fair in characterization Obama's record on Iraq? CLINTON: Well, I don't know about the characterization, but the facts are indisputable. You know, Senator Obama made a speech in 2002 against the war in Iraq and he deserves credit for that. Then by 2004, he was publicly saying that he didn't know how he would have voted had he actually been in the Senate and actually agreed with George Bush on the conduct of the war. He said he would never vote to fund the war. And then in 2005 and 2006 and 2007, he voted for $300 billion worth of funding.
Those are the facts and I'm not going characterize them, I'm just going to, you know, describe them. And I think the people can draw their own conclusions.
CHETRY: All right. Senator Hillary Clinton is off to South Carolina. Congratulations on your New Hampshire win. Thanks so much for being with us.
CLINTON: Thank you. Thank you so much.
ROBERTS: Well, she was the woman, who you remember as we showed there, brought Senator Clinton to the verge of tears in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Marianne Pernold Young (ph) is her name and she's going to be coming up in our next half-hour.
And here's a little thing about Marianne (ph). She asked the question because she was an undecided voter looking for something that would turn her one way or another, she ended up voting for Barack Obama. We'll ask her why. Coming up in the next half-hour here.
Also, he saw a big lead in the polls evaporate in no time despite the fact that Marianne Pernold Young (ph) voted for him. So how does Barack Obama regain his omentum? The candidate joins us live in our next half-hour.
And the only poll that mattered, he won. Why were the others so wrong what the voters were thinking in New Hampshire that gave Hillary Clinton a huge boost? That's straight ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Twenty-seven minutes now after the hour. Hillary Clinton's victory in New Hampshire may have come as a surprise to some, especially those who have been closely following the polls. Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider joins us now to explain how Hillary came back and how the polls got it so wrong. What happened?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, we investigated and here's what we found out. We looked at a poll of polls, which was the final eight polls taken in the Democratic race. That's right here, an average of eight polls.
Now, the big discrepancy was in the Clinton vote. Thirty percent was the figure in the poll of polls. She actually got nine percent more, 39 percent. Obama's vote, 37-37, right on target. The Edwards vote, 19 and 17, that was close. That suggests late-breaking undecided voters went heavily for Clinton. Was it her show of emotion? Was it the much heralded Clinton election machine. Maybe both?
ROBERTS: Right. What about on the Republican side? How much of the vote for John McCain and even Mitt Romney was an anti-Bush vote?
SCHNEIDER: Well, a lot of it turns out to be exactly that among Republicans, mind you. Half of the Republicans in New Hampshire said that a negative opinion, negative opinion of the Bush administration, half of them. Here's how they voted.
McCain, 40, Romney, 26. A 14-point lead for McCain. He is the anti-establishment Republican. The anti-Bush Republican. He still is.
ROBERTS: And we heard on the Democratic side that since they were so close on all of the issues, it was really about personality and the leadership that drove people to vote for one candidate or the other. What about on the Republican side?
SCHNEIDER: Very much a personal vote.
ROBERTS: Oh.
SCHNEIDER: We asked Republicans, what was more important, the issues or personal qualities? Here, the voters just said personal qualities were more important. They gave McCain a big lead, 20 points over Mitt Romney. What kinds of personal qualities? They said McCain has experience, and he says what he believes. He didn't win this on ideology or issues. He won it because of his personal appeal. He's well known in New Hampshire.
ROBERTS: Great information. And interestingly, you may have found out what happened with the polls on the Democratic side. Bill Schneider, as always, thanks.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
ROBERTS: Kiran?
CHETRY: Well, what went wrong for Barack Obama last night and how does his campaign recover? The candidate is going to join us as they look ahead. His campaign looks ahead to South Carolina as well. That's coming up in just a moment.
Plus, the campaigns go on today. What will new messages be heard? And what will we hear from the candidates? We're going to have that story and today's headlines when AMERICAN MORNING coming right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN, ANCHOR: Welcome back. Thanks for being with us on this Wednesday, January 9th with the special edition of AMERICAN MORNING. The day after the primaries in New Hampshire.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN, ANCHOR: Yes. What a great political story we got going. Kiran Chetry and John Roberts this morning for you. Well, the polls were predicting a double digit victory for Barack Obama in New Hampshire. In the end, he lost to Hillary Clinton by two points and it's now a wide open race for the White House. Senator Obama joins us now this morning from Nashua, New Hampshire. Good morning to you, Senator. Congratulations on your showing last night. Very strong second place.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you so much, John?
ROBERTS: How are you feeling about that today?
OBAMA: You know, we feel great about what we've been seeing between Iowa and New Hampshire. Record turnouts, people extraordinarily engaged in the process. What's pretty clear is that the American people are taking this process seriously. They're paying a lot of attention. They want to participate. They want to bring about a fundamental change on how our politics works here in this country. And so we think that serves our campaign well and will serve the American people well once I'm president.
ROBERTS: Well, certainly the record turnout in the democratic side in New Hampshire last night, an indication of just how focused voters are on this race. I want to ask you about a couple of things that former President Bill Clinton brought up in the closing hours of the campaign there. He pointed what he called a couple of contradictions on your part. One of them you're saying that you've opposed the Iraq war from the get-go yet you voted for funding bills to provide money for troops in Iraq. Can you explain what he says the contradiction?
OBAMA: Well, I'm not cheer on what the contradiction is. I said from the start that Iraq was a bad idea. That we should not have gone in. And I also said from the beginning that if we were going to go in, then we would have an obligation to our troops. And that's been a consistent position of mine. So, you know, the notion that somehow that diminishes my clear, unequivocal statements of opposition to the war even before Congress voted to authorize it actually doesn't make much sense and Bill Clinton took some liberties with my statements.
ROBERTS: But, Senator, the last couple of go-arounds, you did vote against funding for the Iraq war. Didn't you just vote against it from the get-go. If you could vote against it now, why couldn't you vote against it then?
OBAMA: Well, keep in mind, that was still early on in the process. It was not clear that President Bush was going to drag this out over several years. I think the interest at that time was just stabilizing the situation in some fashion. What's become clear is that the President doesn't have an exit strategy. He has not applied pressure on the Iraqi government to come together and resolve conflicts between the various sectarian groups there. And until we do so, I think it is important for us not to send a blank check to the President on this issue. That was a difficult decision that I came to at the beginning of this year after the President rejected multiple attempts to set some clear timetable for withdrawal. ROBERTS: Senator, in recent days, the U.S. military has launched countrywide operations in Iraq, trying to prevent Al Qaeda from regrouping and attacking Iraqis who have been siding with the United States. Under your plan to pull American troops out of Iraq, is there a danger, do you believe, that if we took the pressure off of Al Qaeda, they could regroup, they could go after the Sunnis who have been helping the United States and Iraq could devolve into a blood bath.
OBAMA: Well, I think that the danger is for us to have a permanent occupation in Iraq that continues to create anti-American sentiment, is a drain on both the blood and treasure of America and distracts us from Al Qaeda and Afghanistan where we know that Al Qaeda is stronger than any time since 2001 and that you're starting to see militants, Islamic extremists, infiltrate into Pakistan. That, to me, is the greatest danger. There's no doubt that if we have a phased systematic withdraw that we have to do so in combination with the diplomacy required to get Shiah, Sunni, and Kurds to cooperate against Al Qaeda or any others that would try to engage in violent attacks in Iraq. I think we can do so over a period of time. And that's what my plan calls for.
ROBERTS: If there has been no move to political reconciliation with U.S. troops there helping to reduce the level of violence, do you believe there could be political reconciliation if we pull the troops out?
OBAMA: What I believe is that it will trigger a different mindset among Iraqi's leaders. I think that right now they have settled into a dysfunctional status quo where they don't feel obliged to make any compromises with each other. We've seen good progress with Sunni tribal leaders making compromises with the United States because they saw that their position was weakening. But we've got to get the leaders of the central government there to start making compromises as well.
ROBERTS: Senator, one of the big issues there in New Hampshire is the economy. And there are some people who believe that we are already in a recession. Some people believe we're tilting toward it. What do you think? Are we in a recession at this point?
OBAMA: You know, I'm less concerned about the technical definitions of a recession than I am with all of the people who I meet who are struggling every day and they have been struggling for many years, even when the economy looked like it was doing well on paper and Wall Street was flushed with cash. People feel that they're working harder for less. They're having a tough time hanging on to health care. College is less affordable. And it's harder to save and harder to retire.
So, we've got to rebuild our economies, and that means providing tax relief to people who really need it as opposed to the wealthiest Americans and corporations who are exploiting tax loopholes. It means that we get our health care systems fixed. It means we invest on energy, alternative energy that could free our dependence from foreign oil, and also can create jobs and a means of trade policy that has labor standards, environmental standards and safety standards that serve American workers, not just Wall Street profits.
ROBERTS: Senator, we're running out of time here, Senator. Sorry. If you were president right now, would you propose an economic stimulus package? And as well, is now the time to be talking about raising taxes on anybody?
OBAMA: Well, I actually have already proposed measures that would help stimulate the economy. I said I would offset payroll taxes for workers who are typically making less than $ $75,000 a year. That we would add an additional mortgage deduction benefit for those who don't itemize their income tax so that homeowners have a little more cash. If we do those things, typically benefits that affect people making $75,000 a year or less, they are more likely to spend that money, put it back into the economy. And that, I think, would help us stabilize and answer some of the problems with the sub prime lending crisis.
ROBERTS: Sorry, and what about raising taxes even on the wealthiest Americans, would now be the time to do that or a bad time?
OBAMA: Well, I think that there's no doubt that letting the Bush tax cuts on the top 1% lapse would not have, I think, a significant impact on the economy, but it would bolster our fiscal situation. We continue to run big deficits. Our national debt has increased drastically. That is not good for long-term economic security.
ROBERTS: Senator, I've gone way over my time. Thanks you for your indulgence. Good luck in the upcoming contest and again congratulations on your showing last night.
OBAMA: Thank you so much, John. I appreciate it.
ROBERTS: All right. Talk to you again soon. Kiran.
CHETRY: Well, today the candidates move on again after an exhausting day and night in New Hampshire. There are other primaries leading up to the super duper Tuesday races. CNN senior political correspondent Candy Crowley joins us now from Manchester, New Hampshire. We had a chance to speak with Senator Clinton and Senator Barack Obama just moments ago, Candy, about that unexpected upset, if you will, out of New Hampshire.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN, SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely. And what's interesting is it wasn't that much of a big victory. I think it was about 2 or 3-point margin for Hillary Clinton. But the expectations really gave them an extra bounce here because even they at the beginning of the day said well, if we come in with a seven- point deficit, that would be not OK. But we could sell that as not a big bounce for Barack Obama. So, it wasn't until the end of the day that even the Clinton campaign looking at what they were hearing from polling places thought that they had a chance to pull this out. So she gets extra props for beating all of those expectations. And that helps a lot when those headlines come out as you - as you have already shown on the show.
CHETRY: Speaking of expectations, let's hear what Hillary Clinton said about the New Hampshire primary outcome just a couple of moments ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't pay a lot of attention when people say that I'm up or when people say that I'm down. I sort of, you know, take my own measure of what voters are doing. I came back from going to all those polling places and I really believed that I had a very good chance to win. Nobody else believed it, but all day, I did.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Is that an understatement? When she says nobody else believed it. There were those in her campaign, weren't there, who were practically conceding a defeat yesterday.
CROWLEY: Absolutely - no, they were. I can't tell you the number of them that said we expect to lose. So, absolutely they did. I must say, she was very upbeat yesterday. But she was really still pounding the radio air waves. She gave a local TV interview. She was at polling places. She stood on the street for what we call a honk and wave. So they were really out there. In addition to that, they have a pretty good apparatus here. It was built on top of Bill Clinton's infrastructure here in New Hampshire. They were on the phones all day in headquarters talking to undecided voters trying to lure them to the polls and vote for Hillary Clinton. So, they had a lot of things going for them. The candidate knew that and I will say that she appeared to be at least visually the most optimistic of them all.
CHETRY: Candy Crowley for us in Manchester. Well, she turned out to be right. Everyone else turned out to be wrong, at least in New Hampshire. Thanks, Candy.
Here's a look right now at the primary calendar. Next is the Michigan primary. The impact for democrats though doesn't seem to be too significant. And Hillary Clinton is the only major democrat on the ballot. Obama and Edwards withdrew after Michigan moved up its primary against the DNC. Then, Saturday, January 19th, the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina's republican primary. Then democrats hold their primary in South Carolina the following Saturday, January 26th. We really do need a calendar to keep up with all of this, don't you?
ROBERTS: Don't you have a great one there?
CHETRY: There it is. The Florida primary Tuesday, January 29th. And it's super duper Tuesday, that's February 5th. That's when more than 20 states hold their primaries.
ROBERTS: Well, she delivered a defining moment in a campaign that did the woman who almost brought Hillary Clinton to tears actually vote to her. Talking to her live just ahead. And the political pundits are busy blogging away this morning about the New Hampshire primary. Our Veronica de la Cruz talks about what the folks from the right and left are saying coming up on AMERICAN MORNING.
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ROBERTS: So coming up on 13 minutes to the top of the hour. You're looking at smoke there rising from a brush fire just outside of Lakeland, Florida in Polk County. Apparently, visibility there so bad along interstate 4 that there was a 50-car pileup in the area. Apparently, one person killed. They obviously had to secure the area of interstate 4. A lot of low hanging fog this morning as well which is helping to contribute to the lack of visibility. We'll keep watching this for you. Let you know how the weather is. Don't know if you might be traveling in the area or traveling to the area. But look there at how the smoke and fog is hanging so low over the landscape there just outside of Lakeland, Florida in Polk County this morning.
CHETRY: Hard to even make out what you're looking at. When you see this, some of the vehicles going by on the roadways there. Boy, what a mess. We'll keep you posted on that.
Well, a lot is being made of a show of emotion from Hillary Clinton on Monday. Did it move other women to vote for her? We're talking about the question and then the answer that took place at a small gathering in New Hampshire.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: As a woman, I know it's hard to get out of the house and how to get ready. And my question is very personal, how do you do it? How do you keep upbeat and look so wonderful.
CLINTON: You know, I have so many opportunities from this country. I just don't want to see us fall backwards. You know. So, you know, this is very personal for me. It's not just political. It's not just public. I see what's happening. We have to reverse it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Well, the woman that posed that question was an undecided voter, and after all of that, she tells us this morning that she ended up voting for Barack Obama. Joining John and myself right now on the phone from Portsmouth, New Hampshire is Marianne Pernold Young. Thanks so much for being with us this morning, Marianne. You know, after you listened to everything that went on last night, you saw the win for Hillary. And some of the pundits were attributing some of that to the display of emotion that came from your question, what do you think?
MARIANNE PERNOLD YOUNG, ASKED HILLARY QUESTION: I'm in shock that my simple, honest, genuine question created such an uproar.
ROBERTS: When you ask her the question, what are you looking for? Because when she talked to me the day before, it was right after you had asked her the question, she said she was so genuinely taken aback and touched by the fact that someone cared about her. Is that the angle that you were coming from the question from?
YOUNG: No, I was asking her as a friend - as a woman-to-woman, I wanted to know how she does it, because she, you know, she's - she's amazing. And I really have an enormous amount of respect for her. I think she's very capable. And I did not expect that response. I didn't expect the welling and the tears.
ROBERTS: Oh, that's interesting.
CHETRY: Well, it's also interesting that you ultimately decided to go ahead and vote for Barack Obama. You talked about the enormous respect that you have for Senator Clinton. What made you choose Barack Obama instead?
YOUNG: Well, the Friday before Monday, I went to a Barack Obama rally. And I was moved to tears. Not once, but twice. And he has this enormous electricity. And I was just taken aback. And I just had to go with my feelings.
ROBERTS: And so she didn't sway you during her appearance their at the dinner. Did she move you at all?
YOUNG: Yes, yes. I was very touched and I was totally in awe that she would open up to us, all of us there. But it was a delicate matter.
ROBERTS: But it was not enough to close the deal with you.
YOUNG: No. No.
CHETRY: Marianne, it is, it is very interesting also because as we saw, obviously, you were very, very active politically there or you wouldn't have attended both of those rallies. What did you think of the final outcome? That Hillary Clinton against some of the recent polling ended up polling ahead.
YOUNG: I know. I'm happy for her. But I'm also very surprised because I was really hoping for an Obama win in New Hampshire.
ROBERTS: Well, he came close, only within a couple of percentage points. And of course, a lot more states to go as well. That's only two contests. We got 48 more to go. Marianne Pernold Young, good to talk to you. Thanks for joining us on the phone this morning.
CHETRY: Whether she meant to or not. She seemed to have had an impact in some way, shape, or form, at least on the dialogue.
ROBERTS: Little, tiny moments like that are the signatures of the campaigns as we go through these primaries. Really incredible. Well, can Senator McCain beat Senator Clinton in a general election. And is there any upside to Senator Obama losing in New Hampshire?
Our Veronica de la Cruz joins us with the answer from the political blogger. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING. And dramatic video from a dangerous conversation in the Persian Gulf. Iranians threatening to blow up American ships. We'll have the videotape when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) ROBERTS: 54 minutes after the hour. Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton are touting their big comebacks in New Hampshire last night. Our Veronica de la Cruz has been scouring the internet this morning to see what the political pundits have had to say about it all. And I'm sure there's no shortage of material.
VERONICA DE LA CRUZ, CNN, INTERNET CORRESPONDENT: Yes, exactly. You know, you can only guess. Everyone though entitled to their own opinion, that's the thing. So, it's definitely interesting this morning to log on and see what's flooding around the blogosphere. And if I had to sum it up, I would say that the right leaning blogs seem to only briefly mention McCain win but really kept the heat up when I came to the Hillary bashing as says, it normally goes.
One blogger from polipundit writes this "The terrifying prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency is finally real enough that republican primary voters will cast a vote for the most electable candidate." And this from John Hawkins of rightwing news.com who also seemed to skip over the McCain win, saying the race is still very fluid. And since the two candidates who seemed to be bubbling up to the top aren't well liked by the conservatives, still possible an alternative candidate could emerge.
Arianna Huffington posted this to her web site. "This is obviously a great night for Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Bill. The voters clearly want to - they want the nominee - they picked for it. They don't want a coronation and we're seeing this from Andrew Sullivan from the Atlantic. Obama is the better candidate. After this very close race, he can go a close race, go on to Nevada and South Carolina stronger for not winning in a wave of euphoria.
And speaking of Obama, a couple more I-reports that I want to take moment to share with you. Meet Max and Simon. There they are. They take their civic duties very seriously. They're campaigning there for Obama in Beau, New Hampshire.
And then here's Frosty's brother - can you see him? He's also known as Obama man. Camera Sent this one in. (inaudible) Her son made the snow man in support of Obama. If you have an I-report, log on to cnn.com/ireport. As long as we keep Reynolds Wolf away from Obama man, we should be OK.
ROBERTS: Yes, they'll be able to survive. And the democrats are pulling out the donkeys. Maybe we'll see the John McCain campaign deploy a couple of elephants.
DE LA CRUZ: There you go.
ROBERTS: Veronica, thanks. Kiran.
CHETRY: Still ahead, Iranian speedboats circling U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. issues even more urgent warnings while the Iranians respond with a deadly threat. Some of that is caught on tape. We'll let you listen to it coming up. Also, Hillary Clinton and John McCain happy with their wins, of course. But what about the other candidates. Mike Huckabee finishing third on the GOP SIDE. He's got something to say about that. That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
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