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Nevada and South Carolina Results Discussed; Thompson Speech
Aired January 19, 2008 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CO-HOST: What we have seen so far in the course of this day, based on our extensive exit polls and here is what we can tell you right now. Based on our extensive exit polls: It's a very, very close race in South Carolina between John McCain and Mike Huckabee. They are in a tense fight for first place right now. Based on our exit polls: It's also a race for third place between Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, a close race that at least a race that's projected to be close based on the exit polls that we're getting. We have no official count in yet. Those numbers are only now going to start coming in and we're going to put them up on the screen as soon as we get them.
But, we are not in a position based on the close exit poll results right now to project a winner in South Carolina even though all of the polls have closed in South Carolina. We can only tell you that it's close between McCain and Huckabee for first place and is close between Romney and Thompson for third place. Let's go back to Anderson and get the best political team on television to weigh in. Not a huge surprise but it could be, we don't know, it could be a long night, maybe not.
ANDERSON COOPER, CO-HOST: We'll be watching. Bill, what you were saying?
BILL BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, values voters, it's very complicated. Some people tend to think of the Republican values voter or Christian voter as about homosexuality, gay marriage, preservation of the family, the Bible. The evangelical voters, about a lot of different things. Notice in Michigan, Romney won more of the self- declared evangelical than did Mike Huckabee. There are a lot of evangelical voters who at this point are putting patriotism first, love of country, their fear of radical Islam. So, McCain probably struck figures very strongly to those guys. With the Huckabee vote, it's more there's this wink, I'm a southerner, you're a southerner. We talked about cooking a squirrel in a popcorn popper, for God's sake, I don't think he needed to go there, but when he was in college, but you know, I'm one of you sort of things. My wife grew up in South Carolina and I missed that on the menu. But anyway, there are a lots of values voters. The interesting thing about McCain voter, we find this all over the country is there is no profile. You know, he gets independents, he gets Republicans, he may even get some Democrats. The question is, as the question you asked earlier, does he have enough support among Republicans to win this state? If he doesn't have that kind of support in South Carolina, where is he going to have it?
DONNA BRAZILE, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I think John McCain ran a smarter campaign this time around. Look, he weathered the storm this time around. He didn't allow the smears, the attacks to bother him. He set up a real good firewall, bringing in some of his buddies from the - what was it, the Navy to back him up. So, I think this campaign season, McCain learned his mistakes from 2000. He went to South Carolina, went back to his base, he expanded his base. And if he comes in first place tonight, it's because McCain did not change his position. He took Huckabee out on the flag and that was a very bold position.
BENNETT: OK. I think it's a good position there.
BRAZILE: Given the politics of the Confederate flag in South Carolina.
BENNETT: Can I add one thing? He not only brought in guys from the Navy and the prison camp, he also brought Phil Graham (ph) and Jack Kemp, and Joe Lieberman. Those are interesting endorsements.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: But he also run as social conservative. He talked about his entire career, he's being a pro- life Republican. He said that at every campaign stuff (ph) because he wanted to remind these voters, I'm like you, I'm socially conservative.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And that was the goal number one was to do better among the cultural conservatives. He doesn't think he's going to win them but do better than he did against George W. Bush. And here's a guy who can be criticized for not voting the Bush tax cuts as Giuliani did at the top of the program. Now, McCain says, he didn't for it because they weren't offsetting spending cuts. So, what the politician doing when he had a weakness -- turn instead to your strength and he spent two week going up and down the coast of South Carolina and (INUADIBLE) saying that I'm all for tax cuts but cut spending, but cut spending, cut spending. In South Carolina, they're not only cultural conservatives; they are fiscal conservatives who think that Washington has gone way off the reservation under a Republican president spending wildly. John McCain hit it over and over again. Waving a pen and saying, make me president, I will veto every pork barrel spending project. We'll see if it works.
BORGER: Even on the economic stimulus program from the president, he didn't jump on board. He said cut spending.
COOPER: I want to bring in Amy Holmes, CNN political analyst and Carl Bernstein, CNN contributor. What are you looking for tonight?
AMY HOLMES, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: And I think we're all looking at very much the same thing - that's to the evangelical voter and the conservative hard core base. But I just like to back to the other (ph) thing before is that Republican hard core base is not necessarily the stereotype that we have about the evangelical voter. In fact, some polling is showing that economics is the number one priority and if you look at South Carolina in previous primaries, they didn't necessarily go for that hard core populous message. They actually chose George Bush Sr. over Pat Buchanan. They went on to choose Bob Dole in 1996 over Pat Buchanan. So, I think that there is a much more complicated voter than say some of the broad statements about them.
CARL BERNSTEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: In South Carolina is that (ph) McCain would like to get a train rolling. And if he can stay ahead and win this tonight, the train is rolling. If he gets stopped in South Carolina, he's got a complicated job, a long fight, money problems. It's going to probably be a long night.
COOPER: And Mitt Romney what has he done wrong or right in South Carolina? I mean, he's outspent a lot of candidates and yet here right now, he seems to be in a close race for third with Fred Thompson.
HOLMES: Well, I think one of the one things that he did right is he's made everybody forget that. He's made everyone forget he had been in South Carolina since June of 2006.
COOPER: (INAUDIBLE) pull stuff out with focusing on Michigan.
HOLMES: He did and he gave the impression that oh, he didn't really care about South Carolina after all. And then, he tried to raise expectations for John McCain by saying that, you know, the -- I don't know the exact quotes but basically should be a slam dunk for John McCain. I thought that that was clever. But again, also going back to Donna's point about the people that McCain has brought on board, he brought on Mark McKinnon, George Bush's media adviser from 2000. So, he went into this having learned a lot obviously from eight years ago.
COOPER: Let's talk about Mitt Romney over here with our panel. Bill Bennett. I mean, Mitt Romney did do a good job of, as Amy said, making people forget that he spent an awful lot of time and money in South Carolina.
BENNETT: Right, well, what is that, leave no child behind, leave no state behind. I mean, I saw Mitt Romney interviewed very early in the day. (INAUDIBLE) I think three in Nevada, two in South Carolina. I think he had this thing well done. But he has enough money to cover these states. He spent a lot of time as Gloria pointed out, a lot of money, more money than time. But he was present in the state so, he could make a shot at it. But not so present that if he lost he could say -
COOPER: Hillary Clinton is speaking in Las Vegas. Let's listen in.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My view always is you just keep going. And that's what we intend to do.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE REPORTER: (INAUDIBLE) popular vote but you may not have won in the delegates (INAUDIBLE). Your response to that?
CLINTON: Well, nobody really knows. And we're looking very good. Obviously, you know this is about delegates but it's also about, you know, what people are voting for and who they think the best president will be. And I find it -- I find it, you know, somewhat strange, actually, that there is such a reaction when this was a very effective campaign to reach as many people as possible and we did. And I'm very proud of that. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE REPORTER: What do you think made the difference here in Nevada?
CLINTON: You know, I think it was the message of real results that we want to solve problems. And the people of Nevada spent a lot of time talking to me about their worries concerning the economy and healthcare and education, home foreclosures which I spent a lot of time talking about because it's such a problem here in Nevada. And I think that the people of Nevada, you know, they want somebody who's going to give them solutions, not just rhetoric. They want to hear what it is you're going to do and I've been very specific about my plans because I want to be held accountable. I want people to know what I plan to do because I want to bring accountability back into our government. I want people to understand that we can meet these challenges. We shouldn't be overwhelmed by them. We shouldn't get discouraged about them. We can do that and I think the best way for me to do that is to be very specific about how I think together we can solve our problems.
COOPER: Let's go back to Jacksonville, Florida, now where Mitt Romney looks like he's about to speak. Let's listen in to some of what he's going to say.
ANNOUNCER: Governor Mitt Romney!
MITT ROMNEY, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you so very much. Thank you. Thank you so much. This is -- this is about as good as it gets, I'll tell you that. This is just a wonderful feeling. This has been an extraordinary day for me. We have an event that's already concluded in Nevada, a caucus there, it's a big presidential sweepstakes state as you know and we won that one handily today. I'm really pleased. There are six or so of us on the ballot there, Republicans. And I got the majority - 53 percent of the total. That's -- that is very encouraging indeed. Now, I'm delighted to have this young lady here at my side. I'm going to introduce her in a second. But I want to say thank you to Representative Carol (ph) for being here. Thank you also to Speaker Thrasher (ph) for welcoming me here. And Sheriff Rutherford (ph), thank you for your introduction and also thank you to President Delaney (ph) for opening the university like this for us. It's an honor to be able to use this facility and to see so many friends here. Also, you know, there are some wonderful people, but Mayor Payton (ph) is one of the best I tell you. He is a very fine man and I appreciate his help. Now Ann here has been campaigning all over the country. She is a remarkable tireless woman who has great capacity and the amazing thing is that she gets along with me after all these years and it's been a long, long time. I'll tell, from her standpoint. From mine, it seems like yesterday that I went to Cindy white's house for a party, this was my senior year in high school, and there was a girl I've known in elementary school, couple of grades beneath me there. You know in elementary school, there's two grades beneath you, well, you know, they're like a child, you know. So, as a fourth grader, you think of a second-grader as a child. And so, I didn't really pay much attention to Ann in elementary school but when she was just turning 16, I found her very interesting. And so, she was at that party. And I came up and said hello to her and got to know her a little bit better and went to her date who brought her to the party and I said, you know, I live closer to Ann's house than you do. And I wonder if I can give her a ride home for you. And we've been going steady ever since. And she is the mother of our five sons. Mom also to five daughters in-law and 11 grandchildren, the love of my life and I love to tell this story because we've been going together so long when we got into this race, and you may have heard this, I told her, sweetheart, in your wildest dreams did you see me running for president of the United States? And she said, Mitt, you were in my wildest dreams. My sweetheart, Ann Romney.
BLITZER: Mitt is with his wife in Jacksonville, Florida, a key battleground state, January 29th, the Florida republican primary. A lot at stake coming up there. But right now a lot at stake in South Carolina where Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are battling it out for first place according to our exit polls. We're watching all of this closely. A lot more coming up from the CNN Election Center. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Based on our exit polls, it's a close race unfolding right now in South Carolina between John McCain and Mike Huckabee. There's also a battle under way for third place between Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. As soon as the hard numbers started coming in, you'll see them on your screen. Let's update you on what happened earlier in the day in the state of Nevada. We'll start with the Republicans first. Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, he wins Nevada, 98 percent of the precincts have now reported Romney with 52 percent. Ron Paul and John McCain both at 13 percent. Mike Huckabee at eight percent. But a clearly decisive victory for Mitt Romney in Nevada. If you want to look at the hard numbers among the Republicans of Nevada, there they are. Not a huge turnout -- 22,313 for Romney compared to Ron Paul, he's slightly ahead of John McCain for second place -- 5,742 to 5,558. Everybody else way, way down. On the Democratic side in the state of Nevada, Hillary Clinton wins the Nevada Democratic caucus, 97 percent of the precincts have now reported, she's coming in with 51 percent compared to 45 percent for Barack Obama. A very disappointing, only four percent for John Edwards. Let's take a look at the numbers. These are not the numbers of the actual people who voted. These are what they call county delegates and as a result, they're given out in a proportionate representation based on the various caucuses throughout the state of Nevada. Among the county delegates, remember, a lot more of people actually showed up, but these are very small percentage of them, 5,318 county delegates for Senator Clinton compared to 4,731 for Barack Obama, 393 for John Edwards. But a decisive victory for Hillary Clinton in the state of Nevada. You take a look at these two numbers on the Republican side, remember this is a straw poll. That's the total number of people who showed up to caucus among the Republicans. On the Democratic side, a much smaller number because these are not the total number of people who showed up, it was much larger. These are county delegates that have been won by this respective candidates. We're watching right now the story in South Carolina. And as we say, it's a very close contest for first place right now between John McCain and Mike Huckabee, a battle for third between Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson based on our exit polls. And Anderson Cooper, part of the best political team on television, got some more analysis with his excellent team.
COOPER: Yes, Donna Brazile, let's talk a little bit about the actual delegate count from Nevada. Even though Hillary Clinton won the race, Barack Obama picked up a number of delegates.
BRAZILE: Well, 25 delegates are at stake in the Nevada caucuses. And Barack Obama apparently won big in Reno in that Congressional district so, if you look at the math, its proportional representation, Obama comes up with 13 delegates. Hillary Clinton 12. But this could change once they go to the county convention and then of course the state wide convention. But right now, Barack will lead in delegate count.
COOPER: And why does that matter? I mean, for viewers who are kind of following this at home. But we see Hillary Clinton with the biggest number, why the delegate count matters?
KING: If the race goes on and on and on, which is what we're seeing, well, early on, we're seeing momentum, momentum, momentum, some people run away with this. If we are here a month from now, still trying to figure out who is going to be the nominee, well, it's not about winning states, then, it's about winning convention delegates and meaning the bar (ph), the number of delegates you need to clinch the nomination. Normally, in traditional races, somebody picks up momentum early on and the delegate count is irrelevant, they're winning, everybody else drops out. If this goes on for weeks or a couple of months, delegates matter most.
BORGER: Because you know, it isn't winner take all on the Democratic side. It's proportional. So, you can win but -- a state or lose a state but then, still get a certain number of delegates. So, if this does continue, you know, there will be two races going on. One, the perception of who's the front-runner, who's going to win, who's got the momentum and that maybe determined by how many states you win but then, there's the real race, which is going to be the race for delegates and race for numbers. So, they're playing on two different fields right now.
KING: One of the reasons people inside the Edwards campaign are saying, even if he loses South Carolina, stay in to get delegates just in case it goes to the convention, you can be a kingmaker. Many think that's fantasy land but it's one of the arguments they made within the Edwards camp.
BENNETT: There is another race, the race for the psyche of the nation. This is (ph) we're electing a president of the United States. Some interesting things are going on. They went out in New Hampshire, they went out in Nevada. The day before each primary or caucus, Bill Clinton threw a fit, just threw a fit. He was criticizing Obama in New Hampshire. He was talking about voter suppression and other things in Nevada. Is he going to do this again in South Carolina the night before? A lot of Republican strategists are saying, don't talk about the Clintons. Wait until we get into the general and then remind everybody what it's going to be like. Well, the Democrats have jumped the gun on this. We're being reminded of the Clintons and I don't say this to somebody who concludes that everybody listening to this will come to the same conclusion that I do, but one wonders whether people want to go through a whole lot more of this. Certainly, they don't want to go through it every time. And this is what's bothering a lot the Obama people, why do they have to act like this, why do they have to behave like this.
COOPER: Bill Clinton was all over Nevada in (INAUDIBLE) of Hillary Clinton.
BRAZILE: Not only that he caucused - no, he didn't caucus, he participated or went and rallied people in five large at large precincts. Hillary Clinton won seven of the nine at large precincts that were held today at the casino. So, clearly their strategy of going, writing to Obama land with those culinary workers helped to give Senator Clinton a much needed victory.
COOPER: I want to bring in now, Carl Bernstein to this very quickly. Bill Clinton is being used very much. I mean, there was a lot of talk early on in this campaign whether Bill Clinton would have a significant role, what kind of a role he would have, are you surprised at the role he has now?
BERNSTEIN: No, he gets the role he wants to play. And there is some argument, some people in the Clinton campaign that would like to restrain him a bit and think that he's off message and causing him some troubles. But he also has a huge following in Democratic Party. He's beloved by many people in the Democratic Party. There's a struggle going on with the -- within the Clinton organization right now. There is great dissatisfaction among the women in the Clinton campaign. Hillary Land, women who have been with Hillary, in the White House, who despise, no weaker word will serve, Mark Penn, it's more than internal baseball in this case because it has to do with the basic character of the campaign. They feel that finally Hillary Clinton is showing who she is. She's gotten back her balance after New Hampshire and started to in New Hampshire after Iowa. But they believed that Mark Penn sees her really as a campaigner in the same mold as Bill Clinton. And if they need to let Hillary Clinton go out and be herself, we're seeing more of it, she's got her groove back a little bit. She's coming back from a near-death experience. And she is good at wars of attrition. And this -
COOPER: This is certainly one.
BERNSTEIN: You know, this is going to go on a long time. You know, they're trying to characterize this as a kind of I've got experience, Obama's got kumbaya. And that's where they're heading and that's what they're trying to project.
COOPER: We have a lot more about the Clinton campaign as well as with the Obama race. We want to talk about that and we'd be joining with Amy Holmes right after this break. You can follow our political coverage all the time, CNNPolitics.com is the Web site. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Very early numbers already coming in to the CNN Election Center from South Carolina. It shows a competitive contest. Less than one percent of the precincts reporting right now, less than one percent, very early. McCain with 33 percent. Huckabee, 28 percent, Romney, 19 percent. Fred Thompson, the former senator from neighboring Tennessee 12 percent. Remember, these are very, very early. Less than one percent. Let's take a look one percent of the precincts reporting. Here are the hard numbers of voters in South Carolina. McCain with 1,055. Huckabee, 886. Romney, 608. Fred Thompson, 364. Ron Paul, 124. Rudy Giuliani, 116. Duncan Hunter just announced he's dropping out of this race, the congressman from Southern California, no longer a Republican presidential candidate, only four. Only four votes for him. But, remember this is very early and based on our exit polls, based on our exit polls, it's shaping up as a very close contest between McCain and Huckabee. And also a close race for third between Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Let's take a closer look at the exit polls that we have with these Republicans who voted in South Carolina today. Bill Schneider's looking at some of these nuggets. What are we learning?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We're learning that the voters of South Carolina and the Republican Party are very, very conservative. Almost seven in 10 of these voters describe themselves as conservatives. In 2000, you may remember, McCain won Michigan and lost South Carolina because the conservative voters came out against him. Well, this year McCain has lost Michigan. If he wins South Carolina, does that mean he's acceptable to conservatives? Discussed amongst yourselves. Something else, look at this -- 38 percent are over 60. This is a relatively old electorate. McCain is 71. We'll see how they respond to him. And a quarter of these voters are veterans. That also could be an important constituency for John McCain. Now, what about evangelical voters, they're important for Mike Huckabee. Well, South Carolina Republican voters are split almost evenly between evangelical or born-again voters, 54 percent, 46 percent are not evangelicals. So, there's a very sharp division in this party between evangelical and non-evangelical voters. And finally: We asked them: how you doing? How's your family's financial situation these days? And we got an interesting response: 22 percent of the Republican voters in South Carolina said, their families are getting ahead. Two-thirds, 66 percent say, they're holding steady. Only 11 percent say, they're falling behind. So, Wolf, I would conclude the South Carolina Republican electorate today is not hurting very much.
BLITZER: As you know, (INAUDIBLE) that you say that because when I spoke yesterday with governor, Mark Sanford of South Carolina, a Republican, he also said, the state has a lot going for itself right now, a lot of older people retiring, moving to South Carolina, a lot of tourism, the tourism industry doing relatively well along the coast in South Carolina. They're losing a lot of manufacturing jobs, they have lost a lot of those jobs over the past 10 years, 20 years or so, but they're making up with it, with a different kind of job environment in South Carolina right now. And, so that's an interesting nugget that the Republican voters were telling people over at the exit polls.
The South Carolina and, Anderson, I want to come to you, but I'll just update our viewers, show them what we know right now - less than one percent of the actual vote in South Carolina in (ph), McCain holding his 33 to 28 percent lead over Mike Huckabee, 19 percent for Mitt Romney, 12 percent for Fred Thompson. It will be interesting if it holds like this, so, Fred Thompson what he's going to do because he's pinned so much of his hope on South Carolina, a southern state and he's from Tennessee. That's what we're seeing right now. But here are the numbers just changed a little bit. More numbers are coming in. And I want to caution our viewers, this is very, very early. Less than one percent of the precincts. So, you can see these kinds of fluctuations going forward -- McCain 38 percent to Huckabee's 23 percent, 19 percent for Romney, 11 percent for Fred Thompson. I'm curious what our panelists - what our analysts - comes in a relatively distant fourth.
JOHN KING, CNN, CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's the question of the night. Can Fred Thompson survive a fourth place finish?
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN, ANCHOR: No. Everyone degrees.
KING: We're likely to hear from him I'm told, Anderson, in 15 or 20 minutes. He could speak as early as 7:45 p.m. and I was just having an email exchange with a couple of top Thompson advisers. They say he has said he does not plan to make a decision tonight, although both of these advisers said and Gloria spoke to a third source with the Thompson campaign that the senator himself could change his mind. But here's how one of them put it. It was "abundantly evident to all of us that the bar was winning South Carolina. We're being a very competitive second for him to be viable to go on." If these numbers hold up, he's third or in the very early returns show him actually fourth behind Mitt Romney who essentially pulled out of the state, it would be very hard to see Senator Thompson go off after that. He like Rudy Giuliani skipped New Hampshire, went to South Carolina. His aides called it going custer. He said it was his last stand. He's going to go and fight in South Carolina.
COOPER: That's what his friends were saying?
KING: That's what his own advisers call it, going custer. All the senior staff left Washington and went down to South Carolina with him. I spent some time with him the other day. He said he was feeling much more upbeat about it but he said he would wait for the results to come in and he's a realist. And so he's very low on money. And what is the rational to go on if you're the southern candidate, the former senator from Tennessee and you come in third or fourth in South Carolina.
COOPER: If you work all the difference, you know, six months make. I mean, go back to the summer and all the adulation, and compared to the cover of magazines and the story that he was going to be the Ronald Reagan candidate.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: This just tells you a lot about where the republican party is right now because it is still searching. And sometime this summer it looked like that a lot of establishment republicans in Washington who didn't like John McCain and didn't trust Mitt Romney said let's go to Fred Thompson. He's a known quantity to us. And they sort of turned him into a rock star overnight. We in the media did that as well, I might add.
And he got out to the campaign trail and he fizzled with the voters. He didn't connect with the voters. He hasn't been in touch with public policy in many years. He didn't seem as prepared as he should have been. And I think now if he does get out at some point in the near future, I think the candidate that really benefits is John McCain.
COOPER: So, was all that just media hype?
BILL BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: No. It was popular hype. I think Gloria is right. It was the people. The demand exceeded the supply. What people wanted is not what they got.
COOPER: Some people were projecting what they wanted on to him when that wasn't there.
BENNETT: Well, two things. The others got practice. I mean, we complained about this season being too long. But actually when you go through the debates, if you look at these guys get better. They get sharper. It's like, you know, a sport. It is a sport. It's contact sport. You get better as you practice it. And Fred was, the problem was the expectations waiting for the (ianudible) and when he showed up, he wasn't everything a person could want. Well, the irony is he's gotten a lot better lately. He's really been good lately. But it is too late. But, you know, if you're a southern conservative and you can't make it in South Carolina, it is over.
COOPER: Amy Holmes want to get in the conversation, Amy?
AMY HOLMES, CNN, POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I think we heard Governor Mark Stanford. He sort of rang the death knell on this just a few days ago when he said looking at Fred Thompson in this way. But, you know, Anderson, we talked about this way back in New Hampshire, the first republican debate when Fred Thompson was on Jay Leno about Fred Thompson and over hyping expectations. He did this with the China hearings all those years ago when he was put in charge by republicans and they were hoping to see something more like the Watergate hearings when he was going to have that big moment.
CARL BERNSTEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: With the Watergate hearings too. He just happened to draw a good hand at that time. Fred is lethargic.
BOLGER: Anderson, I don't think - I don't think it was so much Fred Thompson hyping his own candidacy as it was establishment republicans in Washington hyping the possibility of the savior.
KING: And right in the country, the base of the republican party still hasn't settled on a candidate. That was the vacuum that Fred Thompson was supposed to fill. We have three winners, Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan because the republican base is still looking. The problem for Fred Thompson is one of his messages on the serious grown-up on national security, well that's John McCain. He has that niche in the republican base. Whether republicans like him or not, that's his niche in the republican party. I'm the grown-up on national security. His other niche was supposed to be cultural conservatives but while he was thinking about it Mike Huckabee snuck under the radar and won the Iowa caucuses, locked up the evangelical support in Iowa. So, when Fred Thompson got in, where does he go. And he chose South Carolina.
BERNSTEIN: No republican presidential candidate has ever been selected without having won South Carolina. Which makes this state really an unusual reflection.
COOPER: Yes, since 1980.
BERNSTEIN: Yes, well, in these last elections. And it makes it a real barometer where the party is at. And I think that's going to be a real indication of what we're going to see.
DONNA BRAZILE, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Fred Thompson said I'm not eaten up with ambition. And somehow now that he decided to run for president and he got out there and there was no there. He wasn't passionate. He didn't really bring his campaign to the people. He didn't connect. And so I think he fizzled. He never got off the tarmac.
BENNETT: It's a little bit of Goldilocks. You know, a little hot, a little too cold. Somebody watched him on "Meet the Press" and you know he did meet the press like it was the third most important thing he was doing that day. And you know, that was kind of admirable. Then you get another candidate who remained nameless and looks like that's all he wants to do is run for president. We don't like that either.
COOPER: Too hot, too cold. The Goldilocks theory. Just take a look at the board, 1% of the vote in. John McCain 38%. Mike Huckabee, 23%. Mitt Romney 19% with Fred Thompson back and forth with 12%. We're going to take a short break. Our coverage continues in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: The numbers are coming in to the CNN Election Center from South Carolina where there's a republican contest underway for the republican presidential primary. 1% of the precinct in South Carolina and John McCain has a lead 38% to 23% for Huckabee, 18% for Romney, 12% for Fred Thompson. But we don't know where that 1% that's coming in from whether that was a strong area for McCain or not. We're watching these numbers. More will be coming in rapidly. We can tell you based on our exit polls is that it's a close contest between McCain and Huckabee for the first spot. Also a close race for third between Romney and Thompson. Close between McCain and Huckabee for first spot, close for third between Romney and Thompson. That's based on the exit polls. But we're watching the real numbers come in and we'll bring them to you as we get them. Let's walk to the board over here. John King is taking a closer look at this state of South Carolina. And where these votes are coming in from. What do we know, John?
KING: And critical, Wolf, to remind our viewers as you just did, the white is the not counted yet. We are very, very early. So, what we're going to do right now is look at some key things but we need to be careful in saying we're very early, the votes are just coming in.
Remember what we did at the top of the show, we talked about areas that are critical to John McCain. And one of whom was down here on the coast. This is where he fared best in 2000 against George W. Bush. It is critical to his win tonight. Most of the votes have not yet come in. But let's take one look here, let's pull out Charleston County. It doesn't want to come up for me here. Well, let's try to reset the map and bring it back out. And bring out Charleston County, here we go. We got, again, just 1% of the vote in here. Look at this big margin. 45%, 14%.
If John McCain can run up margins like that along the coast, it will help him. But here's one of the reasons why. This is the current this is tonight. Let's go back and look at Charleston County back in the 2000 race. John McCain won that county against George W. Bush but just narrowly, a three point margin. If he is to win state wide, he needs to run up a big margin. Let's bring the state back down to size.
BLITZER: We just to remind viewers, it's a nice chunk of the population of the whole state along the coast.
KING: Yes. And a much more moderate part along the coast. This is McCain's strength in 2000. And again, let's come forward to see where we are this year. Most of the results not in yet. But let's go back to the map, one more quick point, this up here is the cultural conservative belt of the state where George W. Bush ran up big margins over John McCain back in 2000.
This is Bush country back in 2000. This is where it is key to watch the Huckabee vote come in and the Thompson vote. Fred Thompson in the exit polls not doing very well. Some indications he could be gone for the race within a matter of days. But if he does well up here, he could be cutting into Mike Huckabee's margins which would be critical. And here's what we know up here so far, not much. John McCain in early returns doing well in this county up here.
This is the key area, Spartanburg, Greenville, conservative Christian colleges. Mike Huckabee spent a great deal of time up here in the final days of the campaign, not only hoping older evangelical voters but to get a flood of votes in from new, younger voters. So, we'll watch the results come in. If you're the McCain campaign, you're happy do see that turning your color and you're waiting and waiting to see the vote come in. And Wolf, you were talking earlier with Mary Snow about that county where the McCain campaign wanted to keep it open, that was right here. That's in Horry County. They had hoped to keep that open. And obviously they couldn't. The polls closed there. So, we're waiting for the results. As we watch in here, this must be McCain country for him to win. And he's counting on running up the margins here, doing even better than he did in 2000 to offset what likely be Huckabee's strength up here.
BLITZER: And curious, I don't know if we'll know the answer that Fred Thompson vote, if he had not been in the race, would that vote go to McCain, for example, or would the Fred Thompson go to Huckabee? KING: Well, look at the exit polls. We can learn some things from that. One of the interesting things that Thompson did was where you spent your time is interesting. And much of Thompson's time in the final week was up here. I spent some time with him up in this area. He did campaign down here a little bit. But he spent the final days, he was up in here. These are the more culturally conservative voters who by most accounts would be Huckabee voters. And Thompson was ripping in Governor Huckabee pretty good, essentially calling him a fraud when he calls himself an economic conservative. When he says he's not tough on immigration, Thompson using a very scornful voice saying when he was governor of Arkansas, he didn't protest at all about illegal immigration. And so, if you're John McCain, you liked the message Fred Thompson was using against Mike Huckabee up in these areas in the final days of the South Carolina campaign.
BLITZER: And viewers at home, they can watch these votes come in county by county on, if the go to cnnpolitics.com. I want to go back to that map and take a look at the Huckabee, these areas are Huckabee areas that have actually reported in. Their votes so far what do we know about it?
KING: So far, let's pull out the counties, 4%, not many votes. These are more rural areas. This is right along the North Carolina border up here in Dillon county. We can skip over here, Marlboro county. 5% of the vote in there.
BLITZER: So basically, we can't draw any hard and fast conclusions.
KING: It's winning votes anywhere helps. You have more people, a little bit more up here.
BLITZER: So, when we see colors, that means the votes have started coming in. They have not completed the voting there.
KING: No. We learn the percentage in the county right down. Here is state wide, 1%. If you want to pull out any given county, just pull this county out, take off the telestrator, pull this county up, pull up Marion county, 9% in that county. So, you see a county's color, just because the color is changing doesn't mean a complete results are in yet. We have to check the percentage here. If you see white, that means we have no results or negligible results so far.
BLITZER: So, basically, if this is red, this is McCain. He's the leader as of right now with 9% of the vote in that county showing. He's leading. And as a result, as the leader, he gets the his color up there on the board.
KING: Absolutely. And always check down here to see what percentage of the vote is in in that specific county or if you pull it back out to the entire state, still only 1% so far.
BLITZER: Look at that, you see Rudy Giuliani with 302 votes so far. He's not doing that well. Rudy Giuliani in South Carolina hasn't done very well in any of the other early states either.
KING: Way, way back, I think we had a poll over the summertime that showed Rudy Giuliani ahead in South Carolina. He did dabble there a little bit. Because he knew the security, the leadership, the patriotism message would sell there. But then he decided to essentially pull out, only made a few stops in there, didn't run any TV ads in there. He decided to pull out and go to Florida. And the McCain campaign believes that helped them. The leadership vote that Rudy Giulinai might have gotten, more moderate republicans, that would be a McCain vote. But we'll have to watch all the results come in. Again, all that white means we have a lot of counting to do.
BLITZER: And there's a lot of veterans who live in South Carolina. They retired there. A lot of military bases, active duty military bases in South Carolina, Air Force, Navy, and Army and as a result, you have a big national security crowd down there.
KING: The tenth fastest growing state in the country. You were mentioning your talk with Governor Sanford the other day. This is where a lot of the new people are coming in too. It is critical, it was critical to John McCain back in 2000 and it's also where a lot of the retirees are coming in, a lot of military installations, a lot of military retirees, and also a lot of people from New York, from Michigan, and elsewhere who are moving down for the better climate. Most of the retirees live along the coast.
BLITZER: Yes. All right. A lot of people moving to South Carolina right now. Good weather except not necessarily today.
KING: Not today.
BLITZER: Not today but normally pretty good weather. Let's go back to Anderson and the best political team in television. Anderson.
COOPER: Thanks very much, Wolf. Bill Bennett, if Mike Huckabee, has he been able to expand his beyond the evangelicals?
BENNETT: I don't think so. I think he's maybe narrowed his base because again the evangelical community is complicated. I was just thinking off your earlier question. Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy Giuliani. Tom Coburn and Sam Brownback, maybe the two most pro-life senators in the senate endorsed John McCain. Bob Jones, south Carolina, endorsed not Huckabee but Mitt Romney. So, it's a split thing. I think he made a big mistake. States change. South Carolina in the minds of a lot of people in this country is a place frozen in amber.
The confederate flag and all that. Pitch fork pat, remember talking about the mill cans and you know, the garment industry and the, well what's the word I'm looking for, textiles. That's changed. It is a different state. It is a different place. That grievance isn't there anymore. And I think when Huckabee brought up this thing about the flag which Donna mentioned earlier, the media didn't bring it up, he brought it up. I get a lot of calls to my radio show, a couple of people appreciated it overwhelmingly. People did not appreciate it. They said we dealt with that. We don't need anybody from Arkansas any more than anybody from New York coming in and telling us about that. They felt a little patronized. BORGER: Also this notion that Huckabee raised about the constitution complying with the bible. And, you know, making those two work together again that turned off a lot of conservatives, I think who don't agree with him on that particular issue. So, I think Huckabee really has and I agree with Bill, he's really narrowed himself to a certain degree. If he were to become a national candidate for the republican party, I don't know what kind of appeal he would have out west or in the northeast or --
COOPER: Amy Holmes, a second place finish for Mike Huckabee in South Carolina if that is in fact what occurs, and we don't know that at this point. We only have 1% of the precincts reporting what does that mean. How does it he go beyond this?
HOLMES: Well, it means a lot about who becomes the nominee. If they look at him and think that he could shore up that evangelical base or that southern base. I mean, a second place finish for Huckabee I think we could say is a lot better than we thought he was ever going to get six months ago. But I agree with the other folks on the panel that he has narrowed himself.
You can see that in the polling in New Hampshire. He won those voters who said they went to church more than once a week. But he lost among all the other voters. He didn't even win the category of people who said that religion - having a candidate whose faith is the same as mine or matters as much to me or matters as much to them. He lost amongst those people. So, what we're seeing for Huckabee, the real test tonight is whether or not he's a one trick pony. Whereas, John McCain, the test is can he get them? With Huckabee, it's, can he keep them?
COOPER: If John McCain comes in first, in South Carolina, is he the front-runner?
BERNSTEIN: I think so. If Huckabee were, by some miracle, to be the nominee of the republican party, if there was a sure thing to bring Mike Bloomberg in as an independent, into this race, that would be it.
HOLMES: And I'm not sure republicans consider it a miracle.
BERSTEIN: That's right. That's right. That's the miracle the democrats pray for.
BENNETT: I got to disagree slightly with Amy. Huckabee comes in second and ten point second, he's done.
COOPER: Really.
BENNETT: He may pick up one more state but he's got to win a state like South Carolina. Is he going to really go up in Florida against winning John McCain who's got Lieberman, the other senators with him in Florida who is already ahead? He's also got Diaz, (Bowhart), (inaudible) John McCain does. I don't see - if he doesn't win South Carolina, he's not going finish anywhere close to winning in Florida.
BERNSTEIN: There is one more aspect of the Giuliani story that needs to be mentioned. He is increasingly in the press, he is being perceived almost as flaky and his probity has been under constant questioning. In the press, he is a very different figure than he was at the beginning of this campaign. His stature has diminished with voters and with the press. So he's got a much bigger climb than even it looks like from down there in Florida right now.
COOPER: We got to take another short break. Our coverage continues, we got 2% of the votes now and John McCain has 37%, Mike Huckabee 27%. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Since 1980, every presidential nominee has carried the state of South Carolina. If they lose in South Carolina, they're not going to be the republican presidential nominee. That has been the situation since 1980 in Ronald Reagan. That's why this state is so important tonight. We're watching the results come in. Now 3% of the actual numbers have been reported. And McCain maintains his lead with 38% to Mike Huckabee's 24%. Romney 18%. Fred Thompson 12%. Fred Thompson in fact getting ready to speak to his supporters. He had pinned so much of his hope on South Carolina. This is a state not far from his home state of Tennessee. I think we want to listen in to hear what he has to say. There has been a lot of speculation on what he might do next.
FRED THOMPSON (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: ... and his wife Natalie, thank you for your friendship. Thank you for everything that you've done. It may be a little early to declare victory. I'm not sure. But we told our folks to vote late so they'll still be trickling in, I'm sure. Thank you very much. While we're waiting, early in the process, I wanted to take a minute to speak you from my heart. To tell you how much I appreciate you. Tell you how blessed that Jerry and I feel to have friends like you. It means everything in the world to us. I can't tell you how much I appreciate you and what you have done. I want to thank Jerry. Who has been my strong right arm. I want to thank my family, my son Tony is here with me tonight. My grandson Nick. My laborers are in the bus, they need to get home tonight. We're turning it up a little earlier than usual tonight I suppose. But we appreciate you.
I want to thank my mom who is in the hospital tonight, recuperating. She's been a little bit under the weather. I want to thank my grandkids, everybody, who has put their heart and soul into their support of me. And what we have been doing. I want to thank the people who travel with me, the people who have been with me from the very beginning and traveled all these roads and all these miles with me. Mostly with a smile on their face and putting up with me and working for the cause, working for the cause that we all believe in so much. I want to thank my supporters in South Carolina. Thank you very, very much. I mentioned Congressman Grisham Barrett and so many more, Steve Kingsmen here from Iowa. We had so many people in here, hundreds of people in here from Tennessee. Thank you, Tennesseans. Good to see you, buddy.
People that I have known just about all my life. People who know me best. And have been with me the longest and everybody else from across the country who have meant so much to us. Our friends, we will always be bound by a close bond because we have traveled a very special road together for a very special purpose. You know, it never has been about me. It never has been about you. It has been about our country. And the future of our country. About the future of our country and about our party's role in that future. And because of your efforts and because of our working together, our party is being required to look itself in the mirror, decide where it is going. Decide who it is.
Our country needs strong leadership. These are party to step up. Soon, the battle of leadership begin but we need to remember that we need to deserve to lead and that's what this is all about is deserving to lead. As you know, we like to talk a whole lot about our country. We have been blessed in so many different ways. We live by any measure in the greatest country in the history of the world and it's every generations obligation to do its part, to make sure it stays that way and in order to do that, we need to have a firm understanding of how it got that way. And my friends, it got that way because of strong, consistent, conservative beliefs that founded this country.
These are the beliefs that formed the principals, that formed the underpinnings of this country from the very beginning. Our founding fathers had it right, right off the bat. They understood the wisdom of the ages. They understood that there's a certain thing called human nature, both the good side and the not so good side sometimes. They understood that in all these changing world there are some eternal truths and they stated it among the documents right from the very beginning.
They reminded us in the Declaration of Independence that our basic rights come not from any government but from god. They set forth in the Constitution of the United States, the way we're going to separate power in this country, both at the Washington level and throughout the country, a little system called federalism. Not many people talk about it much but it just kind of underpins everything else that we do because our founders understood that a government big enough and powerful enough, centralize enough is big enough and powerful enough to take anything away from you.
And we're not going to go that direction in this country and we never have, we understood as they understood the dangers of having too much power in too few hands. And this is the foundation in which we're built.
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