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Covereage of South Carolina and Nevada Results
Aired January 19, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FRED THOMPSON, GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And we're not going to go go down that direction in this country and we never have. We've understood, they understood, the dangers of having too much power and too few hands. And this is the foundation on which we're built. This is the reason we're here tonight. Free people in a free country, use their institutions on which we built a country. And what a country it's turned out to be.
This is what it's all about, keeping it that way. Doing our part, stepping up to the place. Stepping up for service. Stepping up to try to do the right thing, even when the right thing is not easy. Institutions such as the rule of law. There weren't any democracies around with our little experiment in this world. Most people govern democracies now.
Now the rule of law is the norm which everybody wants to emulate. It's based on the propositions that judges will follow the law and the constitution and not make it up as they go along.
It's based upon the value of a market economy and free people doing free things in a free society, unafraid to trade with their neighbors. Based upon the notion that we don't tax and regulate our people to death. Based upon the notion that we don't spend money that we don't have and we sure don't borrow against our grandchildren's future.
It's a kind of country that a small town boy from Lawrenceburg, Tennessee grew up knowing that if he behaved himself and pretty much played by the rules, that he had a chance to achieve the American dream. Where I grew up, it wasn't about dividing up the pie and rich versus poor and boss versus employees and all that kind of stuff. It was about making the pie bigger and going out there and enjoying a free country.
That's why we talk about the Reagan coalition so much, my friend. These are the tenants on which the Reagan coalition was built. And they're just as alive and strong today as they have ever have been. They are alive in the hearts and minds of the American people.
Those are the principles that have made us a successful party over the years and those are the principles that made us the freest, most prosperous, most powerful country in the history of civilization and when we stood for those principles, when we stood strong the way many of us had an opportunity to do in 1994 and came down. And were able to pass welfare reform and find major tax cuts, balance the budget four years in a row, stand tall for the second amendment, stand tall for the rights of the unborn. People haven't changed their minds about those things. We need to convince them we haven't changed our minds about them either.
My friends, we live in the country that sacrificed more blood for the freedom of other people than all other countries in the world combined. We are proud of that tradition. It's a tradition of honor and it's a tradition of sacrifice for the greater good. Now most Americans are not called upon to shed blood, but we are called upon from time to time to make our own sacrifices. We are called upon from time to time to make our own contribution and my friends, that's what you have done. That's what you are doing.
I'm so proud to stand with you in that regard and we will always stand strong together in that regard. We will always stand strong together. I can't thank you enough for that. Thank you and god bless you. Thank you tonight. Thank you very much. Stand strong. Stand strong!
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: That was Fred Thompson, the former Republican senator from Tennessee, not indicating one way or another whether he is going to stay in this contest, simply thanking his supporters there -- an enthusiastic crowd.
Let's take look at the numbers and see what's happening there. Twelve percent of the precincts in South Carolina have now officially reported and John McCain maintains his lead with 34 percent. Mike Huckabee narrowing that lead somewhat, that 30 percent. There is a fight underway right now for first place, first place in South Carolina.
The fight for third place as well. Thompson and Romney both coming in at 15 percent. Let's take a look at the numbers, the actual numbers of people who voted in South Carolina. Republicans in the primary, 16,025 for McCain, 14,208 for Huckabee, 7,136 for Fred Thompson, Romney, 6,973. He had effectively pulled out of this contest a few days ago. Ron Paul, 1,900 Giuliani 1,100, Duncan Hunter who has now dropped out of the contest, 114.
Let's go over to Bill Schneider. He's looking at the exit polls very closely. He is watching all of this unfold. You're getting some more information for us on what happened today in South Carolina.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: And the question is, why is this race between McCain and Huckabee so close? Well it really is the split between the Evangelical voters in South Carolina who are about half the voters and the non-Evangelical voters. Let's take a look at how the Evangelical voters in South Carolina voted. 40 percent for Mike Huckabee. He led that vote. But notice, John McCain is not doing too badly among Evangelical voters. He's got 27 percent of that vote. He is not anywhere close to Huckabee, 13 points behind, but he is getting a respectable slice of the Evangelical vote.
Now let's look at the other half of the South Carolina voters, those who are not born again or Evangelicals. Still Republicans and most of them are still conservatives, but not Evangelical. Who is leading in that constituency? And the answer is look, 40 percent. But in this case, the 40 percent is for John McCain. Second place goes to Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. This is a significant number. Mike Huckabee is only 12 percent among the non-Evangelical voters. He really has not been able to expand his support much outside his Evangelical base. That is Mike Huckabee's problem. McCain is doing much better among Evangelical voters than Huckabee is doing among non- Evangelical voters.
But the race is very close because it's kind of a battle between these two halves of the South Carolina Republican electorate. Wolf?
BLITZER: All right thanks very much, Bill Schneider watching the exit polls. Based on the exit polls and the hard numbers, the official numbers that have already come in, we cannot yet project a winner in South Carolina. Abbi, you're taking a closer look at what's happening online.
ABBI TATTON, CNN INTERNET REPORTER: Wolf, we've got cameras around the state ready to bring us the results and the campaign speeches when they come in. Right now, we've just heard from Fred Thompson. We're looking at the McCain headquarters right now and our cameras there and also the Mike Huckabee headquarters where the supporters are waiting - waiting for those results to come in. We are watching them along at CNNPolitics.com. We've got the breakdown here, county by county. And let's have a look at - with 12 percent reporting, our results are coming in here. This lets you break it down though.
If we go to some of these counties, you see that there's in some, there's very little coming in. And we're refreshing this all the time to see what's in there. But in some of them, you're going to get - Spartanburg right now, this has just been refreshed, 17 percent reporting here. This is a place where Huckabee is looking at closely with 25 percent and McCain in the lead there but that's still quite close. Again that's just early, 17 percent there.
Another county down here, the Huckabee campaign is looking at, York County here, 13 percent reporting. There, Huckabee in the lead.
Another tool that I'm going to show you at CNNPolitics.com that let's you follow along with what's happening is this one here. This is a campaign money map, who has raised what where, county by county. We've just launched this around and you can see who has been in the lead there. Not just for South Carolina of course. We have a lot of races to look at, coming up ahead. That map is going to show you the money race, the fundraising race around the country for Democrats and Republicans. Wolf?
BLITZER: Abbi, thanks very much. And it goes to show you, CNNPolitics.com, CNNPolitics.com, that's the place to be. You can see what's happening and get a lot of inside information. If you love politics and you love these campaigns, you can watch us here at CNN. At the same time, go to CNNPolitics.com. Watch with a laptop, you'll get a lot more information as this night and all of our nights unfold.
It's a close contest we are watching right now. John McCain and Mike Huckabee, they are fighting for first place in South Carolina. We have not been able to project a winner yet. We are going through the numbers, we are crunching the exit polls together with the hard numbers that are coming in.
Much more of our coverage coming up. Fourteen percent of the precincts have now reported, 34 percent for McCain, 30 percent for Huckabee. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back. We are watching the South Carolina Republican primary right now. Remember, these are the Republicans and the Democrats have their primary next Saturday in South Carolina.
This is what we know. These are the official numbers, with 17 percent of the precincts now reporting, it's tightening up a bit. Actually it's now 19 percent of the precincts reporting even as I'm speaking. 35 percent for McCain and 29 percent for Huckabee, 16 percent for Thompson, 14 percent for Romney -- 19 percent of the precincts.
These numbers are going to be coming in increasingly more rapidly. We are not yet able to project a winner based on these numbers or on the exit poll numbers that we have because there is a fight. There is a battle underway for first place between John McCain and Mike Huckabee right now -- 21 percent. You can see the numbers are changing very, very rapidly - 36 percent for McCain, 28 percent for Huckabee and 15 and 15 for Romney and Thompson.
But you're going to see a fluctuation throughout the coming hour or so as more of these precincts are reporting.
Dana Bash is over at McCain headquarters in South Carolina. Dana, I know that at some point we will be hearing from John McCain, but I take it not yet.
DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Not yet. What you are hearing right now are some of John McCain's supporters. Her chairman actually of what they call low country here in South Carolina. Low country is where we are in Charleston, South Carolina.
As you have been talking about it, Low Country is McCain country here. It is the area along the water where there a lot of veterans, a lot of military communities essentially here, a lot of moderate voters and retirees.
This is where John McCain has spent a large amount of time and this is where he has been campaigning in order to try to overcome what happened to him eight years ago. What happened to him eight years ago is he lost and he lost pretty big in South Carolina to George W. Bush. The atmosphere here, Wolf, there feeling pretty good. They obviously understand that this is very, very close and it seems to be a very close race between John McCain and Mike Huckabee.
What has been interesting, I've got to tell you is sort of watching John McCain as he's come back to South Carolina, particularly after his loss in Michigan earlier in the week, it's how much he seems to have learned from the loss in terms of what he is talking about on the issues.
For example, the economy. We have been talking about it for the last several days, how huge the economy has become as an issue. Really on a national level, but even here in South Carolina. The unemployment rate spiked just yesterday to 6.6 percent and what John McCain clearly learned from his loss in Michigan where he talked about the fact that jobs are not coming back is you can't talk like that and expect people to think of you as somebody who can turn things around.
So he really did change his message here on the economy, talked optimistically about that, apparently appealing to sort of the patriotic sensibility of people here in South Carolina. But of course he also has been hitting his fiscally conservative talking points very, very hard, talking extensively about the fact that he wants to cut wasteful spending in Washington, appealing to the disillusioned Republican base here in South Carolina with Washington saying, I might be a creature of Washington, but I also am somebody who wants to fix it.
So this is a very important night for John McCain, just like all of the other leading Republican candidates who have a win in their pockets. They are looking to South Carolina to make it not just one win, but perhaps finally the Republican candidate to catch momentum. It's yet to happen in this Republican race. Wolf?
BLITZER: Dana Bash at McCain headquarters in South Carolina - Dana, thanks very much.
And joining us now, the winner of the Nevada caucuses on the Republican side, the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney. Governor, thanks very much for joining us and congratulations on winning the Nevada Republican caucuses.
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thanks, Wolf. Very, very pleased. People in Nevada turned out in good numbers for me and it makes a great big deal of a difference of course. Thirty-four delegates in Nevada, 24 in South Carolina. I'd like them both, but I'm glad to have Nevada in my pocket at this point. That was a great showing from a lot of people there.
BLITZER: And as you like to say, you now have three goals, two silver medals, which is at this stage in the game, not too bad. Doesn't look like South Carolina is going to give you a gold or a silver. How do you feel about that?
ROMNEY: Well, we're going to wait until all the votes are counted. But it's a good state of course. South Carolina has terrific people there. I recognize of course it's been sort of McCain/Huckabee country and I have to make sure that I win a lot of states. And so far, I've got three golds as you say, and that's feeling pretty darn good.
BLITZER: For a Republican to win a presidential contest, you really need to carry the south. The south has been the base for the Republican presidential candidates in most of the recent elections. What is your sense right now? How do you stand in the south? We saw you do well in Michigan, out in the West in Wyoming and Nevada. But what about the south?
ROMNEY: I will do real well in the South. We're going to have a primary right here in Florida. Right now four people are all tied for first place in Florida. Our nominees are going to do real well in the South. The key of course is how is our nominee going to do in Michigan? How is our nominee going to do in Nevada? Those are the swing states and if we can win in Michigan and win in Nevada in November of '08, we'd win the White House.
And I frankly think that the message that's going to win is a message of change in Washington and a message of strengthening our economy and someone like myself who spent his in the private sector is going to be able to connect with people who are concerned about the future of our economy.
BLITZER: Tell us why voters in Florida - that's going to be the next big contest for Republicans, January 29. Why voters in Florida should support you as opposed to Rudy Giuliani, let's say, who invested so much of his political prospects in that state right now.
ROMNEY: Well, Mayor Giuliani is a wonderful fellow and he really hasn't been able to generate a lot of support in the six states from what we can tell so far. And he will be competing here in Florida. The difference between us of course is that he spent his life by working in the public sector and the governmental sector. I spent my life, 25 years, working in the private sector.
And I think when it comes to trying to help Florida see jobs come back, see the housing market come back, see our economy stronger, they're going to want somebody who really understands how the economy works and someone who like Rudy Giuliani has run something and someone who can from the outside finally get inside Washington to turn the place inside out.
BLITZER: What's the biggest difference in Florida for Florida voters between you and John McCain?
ROMNEY: Well, Senator McCain is a fine man and an honorable and courageous individual, but he has been in Washington all of his career. And I don't think you are going to see change in Washington by somebody who has been such a part of it all of these years. I think people recognize that particularly with the challenges that we face in our economy, it's essential for somebody who had a job in the economy, who knows how the economy works and can fight to bring good jobs for middle income Americans.
There are differences of course. He opposed the Bush tax cuts. Even now with the stimulus being proposed, he is apparently not in favor of that. I proposed a very bold stimulus program to get our economy working again. You know, having a strong economy is key to great jobs and key to a lot of good things that happen in this country.
BLITZER: One final question governor before I let you go. Mike Huckabee, he's not been in Washington a lot. He spent 10 years as a governor in Arkansas. You spent four years as a governor in Massachusetts. Same question, what's the difference between and you Mike Huckabee? Because Mike Huckabee is certainly not a creature of the Beltway.
ROMNEY: No, that's right. And his experience was in government and another not for profit. Again my experience was in working in the economy. I have seen how jobs come, how they go. I have been in various countries around the world negotiating and managing and learning about businesses. And I understand how jobs are affected by what we do in Washington. If it comes time to sit down with a trade agreement in another country, I know how that will affect jobs right here. And that's something which I don't think anyone else on the Republican side has any experience doing. And I think that's absolutely critical at this time in our nation's history given the kind of international competition we face. And of course the desire to have a strong military flows from having a strong economy.
BLITZER: The winner of the Nevada caucuses today, the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney already in Florida, getting ready for that important primary on January 29. Governor once again, congratulations, thanks very much for joining us.
ROMNEY: Thanks Wolf, good to be with you.
BLITZER: And let's take a look now at the latest numbers. I'll back up, 22 percent of the precincts in South Carolina having now reported and McCain is still ahead with 36 percent, Huckabee 28 percent, and Thompson and Romney both with 15 percent. We are watching these numbers very closely. Much more of our coverage from the CNN Election Center when we continue.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: The votes in South Carolina for the Republican primary continue to come in. I want to go back and take a look and see what happened out in Nevada earlier in the day at the Nevada Democratic caucuses, 98 percent of those results are now in. Hillary Clinton wins Nevada with 51 percent to 45 percent for Barack Obama, 4 percent for John Edwards.
Let's take a look at the delegate count and how that worked, the precincts that were reporting 98 percent. These are county delegates. County delegates that will be going to the state convention and picking the Democratic presidential nominee. These are not the hard numbers. Many, many more people, Democrats participated in these caucuses, but you can see that Senator Clinton got 5,350 county delegates as we're calling them, Obama 4,769, Edwards 394.
But take a look at this. This is an interesting little nugget. As far as the CNN delegate estimate, how many of those delegates will be accorded to the various candidates, we estimate that Senator Clinton will get 14, Barack Obama will get 14, Edwards zero and Kucinich zero. There are super delegates as well who will be accorded in the process. But in terms of the delegate estimates, 14 and 14, those are the delegates that have been accorded as a result of the participation in the caucus. Today it raises the interesting question, why is it even between 14 and 14. Candy Crowley is going to explain this complicated procedure because Hillary Clinton won, Barack Obama came in second, but they are going to be given the same number of delegates?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, whoever said a win is say win is a win didn't actually deal with the Nevada caucuses. Look, she won the state. There is no doubt about that. But what's happened here is that they took one of the districts in Nevada and split it up into three. And Obama got the advantage in two of those. So he came in including the super delegates that have been already pledged and he came in even with her.
Now the Clinton campaign says wait a second. These are not national convention delegates. That won't be decided until April. So this is not about those delegates that are going to the convention. So you have sort of two different ways to interpret the same numbers. Bottom line is that Hillary Clinton won over all, but certainly in the delegate count at this point and in Nevada, we're talking about state pledge delegates, there was a tie. Simply as I can explain it.
BLITZER: It's a complicated process. Let me just correct myself. The 14 and 14, that does include the super delegates who are usually members of Congress or a governor or major Democratic figures in the state. Candy?
CROWLEY: Exactly. Some of those are pledged and some of those are not. The bottom line is they still do have to go to a state-wide convention where those national convention delegates, the people who will be casting votes for the nominee in Denver, that still has to be done and that will be done in April.
BLITZER: Candy, thanks very much. It's a complicated process, but there are experts who understand it a lot better than I certainly do. Appreciate it very much.
The delegate count will become increasingly more important as this contest continues because you need a certain number to get the Democratic nomination at their convention in Denver and a certain number for the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minneapolis at their convention at the end of the summer as well.
Roland Martin, our CNN contributor, is watching all of this unfold. Roland, what did you think -- Hillary Clinton win Nevada, Barack Obama made a strong showing, but not enough despite that endorsement from the largest union out there, the Culinary Worker's Union.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Absolutely. The bottom line is here. She had a very strong organization, the Senate majority leader's son Harry Reid was leading that effort. A lot of political establishment was backing her.
But the key thought is this here. I have been looking at all of these various elections as tests. So for Obama, how could he did in such a white state of Iowa? How can he do with traditional voters in New Hampshire?
This was the first test with Latino voters in any of these campaigns. She blew him away in the category. So that is something you have to watch out for. How can there somehow be a brown/black/white coalition that backs on her going after the traditional voter? That really has been the problem here.
He has run a very risky strategy and that is how do you appeal to traditional voters? He has relied on Republicans and Independents and young people. That's a difficult combination to pull out in every single state. So he has to figure out a way to target traditional voters.
Last thing Wolf, he had a horrible week last week and I think his campaign has to deal with that. He started off with that question in a debate as a relation to operational experience. She jumped on that and makes a point about being a CEO, dealing with bureaucracy.
Then we had the whole Ronald Reagan campaign. His campaign's communications staff did a horrible job of trying to somehow clean the mess up. You can't have five days and the final week of a campaign where your message doesn't get out when you're dealing with putting out fires.
And something that's very good, a good Clinton campaign at really hitting them hard on that. They have to then recalibrate, going to South Carolina. He has to do well on Monday night. That will set the tone for the entire week and that CNN debate. Because if he doesn't, he's going to have a difficult week and that makes it very tough for him to win in South Carolina, even though African-Americans are leaning towards him. He has to show something, some more energy, focusing on the policy issues, and again, and communicating effectively and not just change, not just hope, but also being able to touch people in their hearts and their minds. That's where he was lacking I think in Nevada.
BLITZER: We will be in Myrtle Beach on Monday night, 8 p.m. for that Democratic presidential debate that we are cosponsoring with the Congressional Black Caucus Institute. You know Roland, the last thing Democrats, rank and file Democrats, want to hear from a Democratic presidential candidate and you'll correct me if I'm wrong is that candidate saying Ronald Reagan was a transformational figure in American history, but Bill Clinton didn't really live up to that. He really didn't do it. And that's what in effect Barack Obama said.
MARTIN: Well, you're right. And look, I listened to the comments that Senator Obama made and from a philosophical standpoint, he is absolutely right. America was looking for change coming out of the presidency of Jimmy Carter. We wanted a strong leader. We saw what happened with America and Iran in 1979. One of the hostages were release and so we are looking for that.
But when you are running for the Democratic nomination, those are not things -- you cannot make philosophical statements like that. Not only that, but don't be surprised if we see it on Monday from the Clinton campaign. They're going to say, Ronald Reagan -- black folks couldn't stand Ronald Reagan and they're going to hit Obama on that. He is going to have to come up with some kind of explanation as to what in the world he was talking about and get that behind him.
Because Ronald Reagan, forget the fact that Democrats don't like him, black folks really don't like him and that comment will not play well in South Carolina. And so again, he should stay away from things along those sides, save that for the classroom. But when he's on the campaign trail, you have to hone in on the area where he is weakest and that is lower middle class voters. And for the life of me what I don't understand is why they are not emphasizing the community organizing days of going into public housing complexes, being able to deal with people on those lines and saying look, I was on the ground dealing with these kinds of issues. That's what he has to get back to, talking about his mom, having to deal with food stamps, his dad leaving the home and having to be raised by a single parents, his mother and the whole breast cancer issue. That's how you touch people in a different kind of way. But not Ronald Reagan, that won't do it.
BLITZER: You made an excellent point, Roland. You made it just a moment or so ago, this was the real test of the Latino vote and the Hispanic vote in the United States in Nevada today. Hillary Clinton crushed Obama in that community based on the exit polls that we have. Why did that happen? Why do you think Latinos, Hispanics, went for Hillary Clinton and snubbed in effect Barack Obama?
MARTIN: Well I think you can look at in terms of the exit polling data in terms of income, that's a critical issue there. And that is he only won income demo in Nevada. So you look at the data and it's amazing. She won three out of the four. I think that's one of the issues. She has very strong Hispanic support. She trotted out a significant number of Hispanic supporters and endorsements, the son of Cesar Chavez. That was one of the folks.
So again, they understood the importance of Latino voters. And bottom line is the Culinary Union did not come through and they made up nearly 50 percent of minorities. It didn't work. The bottom line is he has to figure out how can I touch, how can I connect with Latinos? And so what is going to be his strategy? He has to be able to find those issues. He cannot have her winning 50 percent of the white vote in Nevada, 65 percent of the Latino vote and then depend upon on black votes. He has to really cut that down and pick up at least 40 percent of Latino votes and really make a vote in white votes to put together a solid coalition for him to win.
BLITZER: He went out there to Nevada, he spoke Spanish to the Latino voters. It clearly didn't help much, but we'll see what happens down the road. Roland Martin is our CNN contributor, excellent analysis Roland. Thanks very much for that.
Let's get back to the news that's happening right now even as we speak -- 38 percent of the precincts in South Carolina have now formally been called in their votes, 35 percent for McCain, 30 percent for Huckabee, 15 percent for Thompson, 14 percent for Romney. It has stayed roughly at this margin for some time now, McCain having a small, but steady lead over Huckabee. But 38 percent, there is plenty of votes that have not been counted. We are watching it very closely. You can watch it and go inside county by county if you want to go to CNNPolitics.com and see where the votes remain to be counted in South Carolina. We can't project the winner yet based on our exit polls and these real numbers. We are watching it though very carefully. Much more of our coverage in the South Carolina Republican primary and all the news of the day right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: We are at the CNN Election Center. We're watching the results coming in from South Carolina and the Republican primary. I'm Wolf Blitzer reporting.
Let's take a look at what we know right now -- 43 percent of the precincts have now reported and it's tight, 33 percent for McCain, 30 percent for Huckabee, 16 for Fred Thompson, 15 for Romney -- 43 percent of the precincts.
Let's take a look at the actual numbers of the Republican primary voters - 63,766 for McCain, 56,777 for Huckabee and then everybody else way down. 30,000 or so for Thompson, 28,000 or so for Romney, 7,500 for Ron Paul and Giuliani a very disappointing 3,700. Duncan Hunter, the Congressman from California has now dropped out of the race. Only 464 votes for him.
We are watching this very closely and we can't project a winner in South Carolina yet based on these numbers nor on the exit polls that we had earlier.
We're walking over to John King to get a closer look at the state of South Carolina and what we know right now because you are honing in on the counties and who is doing well in those counties.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And Wolf as you can see, the map is beginning to fill in. The last time we spoke, there was still a lot of white. We are starting to get the vote count. We are up to 46 percent total in the state right now. So we are starting to see some trends that we think are significant and worth watching.
I want to go back in time a little bit. Remember some of the key counties we were talking about earlier. So let's go back to 2000. This was the year where John McCain lost by 11 points to George W. Bush. Well what happened here - let's clear this board. What happened here in Charleston County. Let's pull it on out. This is Charleston County, this is 2000. John McCain won by plus three. OK? Let's remember the plus three. Remember Charleston County. That was then and this is now.
John McCain is winning 44-17 percent. Mitt Romney is actually second here, but John McCain has a plus 20 over his closest challenger. Even more than that, that's what he needs to do to win tonight. 77 percent of the county and so he is running up big margins in the places he did well in 2000. That is one key to victory. Let's clear the board. Let's come and bring that state down a little bit. We said earlier the key for Mike Huckabee is up here. And you see he is winning these counties right now as the results come in.
BLITZER: He's got the lighter.
KING: The tan is Mike Huckabee. Spartanburg, Greenville, Anderson, right here. This is the Bible belt to South Carolina, Evangelical places. So let's zoom in and take a peek at Spartanburg County. Right now, Mike Huckabee is 34 percent, John McCain is 27 percent. So for John McCain right now, he is minus seven. Minus 7 in Spartanburg County, losing.
But let's go back in time, 22 points. He was minus 22 in 2000. So he is running better in the areas where George Bush beat him handily back in 2000 and he running better as well in his own areas. Let's clear the telestrator, bringing the state back down. That was then. This is now.
John McCain winning as we said, he had to do along the coast and while Mike Huckabee is doing well up here where we thought he would, not by the same margins George W. Bush did when he beat John McCain quite handily. So John McCain so far as you watch the map fill in, if you're watching the trends, now we're up to 59 percent Wolf, in the state. The margin has been holding.
This is just Spartanburg County. Let me take this off and bring did out, back to statewide. 46 percent, almost halfway through the statewide count. McCain is running well where he needs to run and the margins are very good if you are McCain. The McCain camp watching along the coasts.
And what they're most encouraged by is that while Mike Huckabee is beating the McCain camp up in most of these counties, not by as much as he probably needs to pull it out. Good population areas in Greenville and Spartanburg. We'll watch as the vote totals mount up there, only about halfway through. If the margins stay as they are now, it's very hard to see Mike Huckabee pulling it out. So that is very much worth watching as more of the percentage comes in, do those margins stay where they are now?
BLITZER: And it's interesting at 46 percent, almost and half of the precincts reporting and there's a three point spread, 33 percent for McCain and 30 percent for Huckabee. It just changed to 48 percent, 34 percent for McCain and 29 percent for Huckabee. Wouldn't it be ironic if McCain wins South Carolina this time, he lost in 2008. It ended his bid for the presidency to George W. Bush. He did win in New Hampshire back in 2000 and he didn't win New Hampshire this time. He lost it. What do you think?
KING: Well if he can win here, key momentum going on into Florida. One of the things we have not seen is the race yet has been one of the things that makes this campaign so interesting.
No one has gotten a big bounce out of a win. Romney wins Michigan, doesn't get a big bounce. McCain wins New Hampshire, doesn't get a big bounce. The question is, can the winner in the first traditional Southern state - the South Carolinians call this the gateway to the South primary. Can the winner in a state that has traditionally been so influential in Republican politics finally get momentum, but Florida is not South Carolina.
When you're talking about the base of the Republican Party, Florida a more moderate state, a bigger state, a more diverse state. But the key question in the race when we ask the question, will it be settled all of a sudden or will it continue muddled and jumbled for sometime to come is can a candidate actually start building state by state momentum? Somebody will win the state of South Carolina tonight. At the moment, Senator McCain is ahead. But that's still pretty close and we're waiting, still only at half the votes counted. Can the winner here carry momentum into Florida will be the big camp. If you're in the McCain camp watching the results so far, you're encouraged, but Wolf, that's still pretty close.
BLITZER: We have half of the precincts now reporting, we're up to 50 percent and McCain has maintained that steady lead, it's a 5 point lead, 34 to 29 percent. If he can win tonight in South Carolina, that's a huge, huge bonanza for John McCain. It will give him momentum moving to Florida. Florida on January 29, the next big contest for the Republicans. Anderson Cooper is joining us as he has throughout the night with the best political team on television. Anderson?
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, John King asked an interesting question. If John McCain does in fact win in the state of South Carolina, will momentum carry him into Florida?
That's not a question John King probably would have asked in previous races, but as Gloria Borger, senior political analyst was pointing out, this is a race unlike any other.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: It is a race unlike any other. It used to be that if you won a primary, you would get a huge bounce out of it and maybe go on to win the next one or two.
In this race, what you get at best is a boost. You get a little boost out of it, but not necessarily a win. A boost is like a baby bounce. For example, Mitt Romney's people I was talking to, they expected to get more of a bounce out of Michigan and they didn't get that.
I think what you see in this race is it's clearly a disadvantage if you lose, but it's not that much of an advantage if you win. The voters this year are in a mood to say I'm not going to let the folks ahead of me decide what I'm going to do. They have a sense that they are part of a broader drama and they want their votes. Maybe that's because we have a calendar that's all accelerated, but every voter is saying I'm not going to let the folks in New Hampshire and Iowa tell me what to do and they are also by the way quite undecided, at least on the Republican side.
COOPER: Amy Holmes, if John McCain wins in South Carolina tonight, do we learn something about where the Republican Party is today or what it really is all about?
AMY HOLMES, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well that's an interesting question. I was just talking with an advisor to McCain who is with him right now and asking, what made the difference this time? The answer was that they thought GOPers are really looking at someone who can capture the White House, number one. And number two, superior organization. One of the things of course we all know about the McCain campaign has been a money issue. So if he's also to win South Carolina, he can expect to increase support, increase money so when he goes down to Florida to be facing Giuliani.
And also I would say another point in his favor is that there is more reason for him to be the candidate and it chips away at the reason for Giuliani. Giuliani was supposed to be electable candidate, the national security candidate, the post 9-11 candidate. If John McCain is all of those things plus a candidate who can appeal to those core conservatives and Evangelical voters, all of the sudden Giuliani's hill gets a lot more steep.
COOPER: I want to talk to Donna Brazile a little bit about what happened in the Democratic side in the state of Nevada where Hillary Clinton obviously won today, scoring very well, bringing out Latino voters. A much better showing than Barack Obama. We heard from CNN's Roland Martin, a little bit earlier talking about problems he felt the Obama campaign had. What's your take?
DONNA BRAZILE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well I think Roland is absolutely right. Obama has to do a better job of connecting with down scale Democrats, voters who are not feeling any of the so-called economic bounce out there. So I think Obama going forward needs to do a better job with women, needs to connect better with some of the disaffected Democrats. If he is unable to connect with them, I think he is going to have trouble taking the nomination from Hillary Clinton.
Senator Obama is going to Ebenezer Baptist Church. That is the spiritual home of course of many African-Americans in the Deep South. It's the home of Ebenezer where Martin Luther King was a pastor. I think he needs to clarify this comment he made about Ronald Reagan.
The Clinton campaign used it against him in Nevada especially among union members who remember that Ronald Reagan of course was against collective bargaining. So I think going forward, Obama needs to be much more careful in how he describes his feeling about reaching out to Republicans and Independents because that can hurt him with traditional Democratic voters.
COOPER: We should point out also that Hillary Clinton I believe is speaking at an African American church tomorrow.
BILL BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: A little disagreement with my friend here. The PATCO strike and Ronald Reagan's resolve was heard around the world. The Soviets heard it and then a few years later they saw that same resolve.
I think that tantrum of Roland's is a mistake to attack Obama for this. I understand it's a risky place for him to be, but it's an extraordinary thing that he did. And remember what he said. He didn't say I agree with Ronald Reagan's policies and trade unions or collective bargaining, he said he gave lift. He gave idealism, he tried to bring the country back unlike Nixon or Clinton. That's what really got them going. He put Nixon and Clinton in the same boat, people who embarrass themselves and their country.
You don't have to go to the Reagan Library like I go. You don't have to be adulatory like many of us are. But give Ronald Reagan his due for Pete's sakes. But that kind of stuff - I mean, there is an expression in politics. I'm not just talking philosophy here called Reagan Democrats. You know, and there are a lot of people who are Reagan Democrats. If you did a public opinion poll, what do you think of Ronald Reagan, I'll bet you the numbers would be in the pretty high 60s or 70s.
BRAZILE: But when you're talking about traditional Democratic voters Bill and when you think of those voters, they think of Ronald Reagan, they think of supply side economics. They think about voodoo economics. They think about chronic poverty, black unemployment.
BENNETT: Those are phrases and then there are realities.
BRAZILE: Abraham Lincoln, not Ronald Reagan in the black community.
COOPER: If this were a debate, Ronald Martin would get 30 seconds to respond. I know he's not going to honor 30 seconds, but let's bring him in anyway.
BRAZILE: Roland speaks for himself.
COOPER: Roland, you have been listening to what Bill and Donna were saying.
MARTIN: Hey Bill, it's not called attack, it's called analysis. The reality is, when you mention Ronald Reagan to Democrats, especially low to middle class traditional Democrats, you are going to get a serious response.
I got an e-mail right here from a woman who said Obama Reagan, in parentheses, mad as hell. She snapped on that particular comment. And what was effective from the Clinton standpoint, and I'll give it to the. Bill Clinton, Senator Clinton, they were able to take that comment and some say twist it, some say turn it upside down, but they used it against Obama.
The point is you as a candidate cannot afford if you are running against Senator Clinton to give them more ammunition. So you stay away from stuff like that. Bill you love them, but the reality is a lot of folks don't. I recall his funeral. I didn't see many African- Americans standing in line. And trust me, that is not a good name to use for black voters going into South Carolina.
BENNETT: Well you talk about lower middle class voters. I don't have the numbers handy, but you go back and look at how Ronald Reagan won those big numbers. There were a lost lower middle class people voting for Ronald Reagan. A lot of them were Democrats, a lot of them were union people, a lot of them voted Democrat before all their lives.
Was this something that was immediately going to make Democrats run to Obama's side? No, of course not. That was the high risk part of it. But this is what's interesting about the Obama campaign.
I'm sorry, my assessment of the Obama campaign is he's doing fine. He just lost by six points in Nevada. He was supposed to lose by 20 points. He won in Iowa. This guy is very much alive. Roland said he's going to have trouble in South Carolina. Prediction, he wins South Carolina.
MARTIN: No no no, here's what's going to happen Bill. In South Carolina, here's what's going to happen. The Clinton campaign, they're going to expect that they're going to lose, but they are going to raise the expectation and say Obama needs to win by 7 to 10 points in the South Carolina.
But the point about Nevada is this here. It's a psychological issue. If you remember the Obama folks coming out of Iowa, they were excited, they were pumped up. In New Hampshire, somewhat came down. Lose in Nevada, somewhat came down. He needs a win. Not delegates, but a win. He needs to be able to give a victory speech to be able to take his people, young voters, people who are disaffected, and say you know what? This guy might have a shot. That's why he has to win. He can't just say, you know what, I've got the delegates. He needs the victory and that's what he didn't get.
BENNETT: He needs to win. He needs to continue to speak the way he is speaking to the whole country, but he very much needs to watch his back and watch his knees.
COOPER: We've got to leave it there. Roland Martin, we'll talk to you and everybody else coming up. We've got a short break and our coverage continues in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: 60 percent of the precincts in South Carolina are now reporting and McCain still holding a narrow lead over Mike Huckabee, 60 percent of the precincts, 61 percent right now as we are speaking. It's changing. McCain with 33, Huckabee with 30 percent. We have the exit polls, John King. We have 60 percent of the precincts reporting, but we cannot project a winner yet in this contest. Tell our viewers why.
KING: Well first and foremost because we're going to be careful and the main reason is Wolf, you just noted what we have here. You have three percentage points and about 10,000 voters separating the two leaders right now. Why can't we do it? Because we have several counties where we still have no results. But these three.
BLITZER: The white counties, there are no results coming in at all. And the tan and the red, we have leaders in there for McCain. KING: Red is McCain. Tan is Huckabee. The white is we have no results yet. Now why does this matter? Horry County, more than 200,000 people live in that county, very important in a race that is right now about 10,000 votes apart. You want to know that.
Then you come over here, Florence County another 130,000 or so people live in this county. A big George W. Bush conservative county back in 2000. So you want to see the Huckabee vote totals there. Also next door here, Darlington County with about 70,000 population. We'll see what the Republican numbers are, primary numbers are. But again, a very conservative county for George W. Bush. That's the overall population, not the number of voters. But a smaller county than Florence County or Horry County, but still something you want to watch.
BLITZER: And right now we have 0 percent of the precincts reporting in those respective counties.
KING: 0 percent and these two were very strong Bush conservative counties. So you want to see Huckabee's numbers there, especially in a race as we go back to the statewide numbers now, that is running at about 10 or 11,000 votes total. One other big ...
BLITZER: Let me just interrupt for a moment. So that potentially could be good news for Huckabee. These counties could be good counties for him.
KING: These are very conservative places. Let me show you why. Let me take you to the larger one, Florence County. We don't have results now, but let's go back and look in 2000. George W. Bush beat John McCain by 30 points there. So it's a conservative county, so you'll want to see it.
I want to go shrink us back down because I want to show you something else that is quite significant. As we wait for those counties - that was then, 2000. Let's come forward to now, 2008 and see this.
Remember we talked earlier about how important it was for Mike Huckabee up here in the conservative Bible belt? Well this Wolf is Greenville County. Greenville County is a very conservative county. John McCain, it's essentially a tie. There are 20 votes separating the two, but John McCain is running even with Mike Huckabee in one of the most conservative, Evangelical counties.
One reason why is Fred Thompson getting 21 percent of the vote. So we're seeing the Fred factor up in the Evangelical part of South Carolina. That could be huge if these numbers hold up.
BLITZER: Taking away votes from Huckabee, potentially.
KING: Taking away votes from Huckabee, potentially.
Let's move next door into Spartanburg County, take that off and come right up here to Spartanburg County. Mike Huckabee is running ahead here at 34 percent. The margin between the first and the second is seven points. Fred Thompson is getting 20 percent. Now why is that significant? Remember this, John McCain running about minus 7 in very conservative Spartanburg County.
Let's go back in time to 2000. Spartanburg County George Bush beat John McCain by 22 points. So John McCain is running closer to the conservative candidate in those Evangelical counties.
Let's reset now and come back to the statewide number. We've got to take that off. I keep forgetting to do that. That was then. This is now.
We told you at the top of the show, John McCain needed to do well here. We are waiting on this one big county here that he needs very well and the other two things to watch as we see what happens. Right in here we want to go and I'm told if I take this off and look down here, bring it back out, Buford County down here along the coast. Let's clear that so we don't confuse people. Let's bring that on out. 95 percent reporting now in a county that is critical to John McCain. And we see 42 percent to 17 percent for Huckabee. Governor Romney actually running second in Buford County. Another very important county for John McCain along the coast.
BLITZER: A lot of retirees from other parts of the country having moved all along this coast from Myrtle Beach down to Charleston and down.
KING: And John McCain has good local support here. What we are seeing is John McCain this time had the establishment, had a lot of local officials. The mayor down here, some statewide officials. So what we are seeing is that support. Bush had that support back in 2000, John McCain has it this time. So not only is he winning and doing well in the areas he did well in 2004, he's posting bigger margins which are helping him.
And again, the most significant thing that I see as we watch these results and be cautious in waiting for the results here, here, and here to come in. Again, a lot of votes in those counties, but a very big story if these numbers hold up and the trend lines hold up. It could be the Fred factor up here in conservative evangelical South Carolina where McCain is running better in Greenville than his campaign could have hoped for and very competitive in Spartanburg there where Thompson getting 20 percent of the vote could be a big factor in this race.
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