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Barack Obama Projected as South Carolina Winner; Florida Battleground
Aired January 26, 2008 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, HOST: A strong victory for Barack Obama today in South Carolina. The Democratic senator from Illinois will win -- will win the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary. There is a competition under way right now for second place between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, but the big winner: the important development tonight, Barack Obama: the winner of the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary. We can make that projection based on the exit polling that we've been doing throughout the day in South Carolina asking Democratic voters who they voted for as they leave the ballot box and based on the scientific polling that we have done, other news organizations have done, as well, we can now project that Barack Obama will emerge as a strong winner tonight, a strong winner.
We're obviously going to wait for all the results to be counted officially. We'll be tallying all the official results as they come in precinct by precinct, county by county. We'll then have a better sense of how big of a victory, but we can project, this will be a strong victory for him. We are not yet able to project who will come in second place or who will come in third place in South Carolina. Both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are competing for second and third place right now. But this is a big night for Barack Obama. It will give him added momentum now as he goes forward to the Super Tuesday contest of February 5th when more than 20 states will have their primaries, as well. I want to walk over, Soledad O'Brien and Bill Schneider who were looking at the exit poll numbers. And give us more insight Soledad, into how Barack Obama managed this big win. He won in Iowa. He didn't win in New Hampshire. But he is winning in - and he is going to win tonight in South Carolina.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I think the $64,000 question here, is really what we've been talking about all week leading up to this contest which is what role would race play, what role would gender play. So, let's break it down and take a look at the exit polls and what they show us. For African-American voters overall, how'd that look?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: The African- American voters delivered very heavily to Barack Obama. As Wolf (ph) said, he won Iowa, which was an overwhelmingly white state. About half the voters here were African-American. They voted 81 percent for Barack Obama, 17 percent for Hillary Clinton, and Edwards barely shows up with just 1 percent of the African-American support. Now, let's compare white voters, the other half of the voters, in South Carolina. There, the vote was actually that I narrowly going to John Edwards, 39 percent. Hillary Clinton, 36. But Barack Obama got a healthy share of that white vote. So, you can't say it was totally polarized by race. The white votes split with Obama getting about a quarter of the white voters.
O'BRIEN: What about a gender gap? Let's take a closer look, kind of drill (ph) down on how the black men voted.
SCHNEIDER: Well, let's take a look at whether there was a gender gap. Let's look at the African-American community. Here are the black men, they voted 80 percent for Obama, 17 percent for Hillary Clinton. Now, did Hillary Clinton do substantially better among black women who were choosing between a black man and a white woman?
O'BRIEN: The question was: Would race trump gender, would gender trump race?
SCHNEIDER: And the answer is that among African-American women, Obama, 82, Clinton, 17. Exactly the same share of the votes she got among black men. So, among African-American voters in South Carolina, there was no gender gap, race trumped gender.
O'BRIEN: Interesting. Let's look a little bit about white men. Our final category. White women, whether gender gaps for white men and women?
SCHNEIDER: Yes, there was. Here's the way the gender gap did show up. Among white men, they voted for - well, the white man. They voted for Edwards, 44 percent, Clinton, 28 and Obama, a healthy share, 27. So, they split, but they split in favor of John Edwards. What about white women? There will you find, there was a gender difference. The number that Clinton was getting 28 percent of white men, but she gets 42 percent of white women. The gender gap is here. She's done substantially better, she wins white women. Edwards comes in second with 35 percent. Close behind her, but once again Barack Obama gets about 22 percent, a healthy share of the women's vote.
O'BRIEN: When you look at the numbers for Edwards for white women and white men, you have to ask yourself and it's obviously, hypothetically of course, but if he weren't in the race, where would those voters go?
SCHNEIDER: A lot of viewers might immediately leap to the conclusion that, well, only the whites really voted for Edwards. He got very few black votes, so they would have gone for the white candidate, Hillary Clinton. I don't think you can leap to that conclusion because the Edwards voters could have voted for Hillary Clinton. They didn't. A lot of them are anti-Clinton voters. So it's very likely, we don't have any scientific evidence on this, but to say that they were white and they would have voted for Hillary Clinton, I wouldn't draw that conclusion. There might have been anti- Clinton voters.
O'BRIEN: (INAUDIBLE) Bill, thank you. And Wolf, we'll send it right back to you.
BLITZER: We're going to be pouring over these numbers for a long time to try to understand what has happened today in South Carolina. I know you're going through some other numbers, as well. We'll get back with you. And you can always go to CNNPolitics.com to get all of the numbers as they come in -- CNNPolitics.com.
A strong victory tonight -- a strong victory tonight for Barack Obama. He will win the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary. But there's a contest under way. There is drama under way for second and third place between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. We cannot yet project who will come in second place. This has ramifications; this has significance for Democrats out there as we get ready for the next major round of contest on February 5th, Super Tuesday. Let's bring in Anderson Cooper and the best political team on television to digest what we've just learned - a huge win, a major strong victory tonight for Barack Obama.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, very interesting to see and also him getting about a quarter of the white vote. What do you make of the break down that Bill Schneider has just been showing us, Hillary Clinton, her standing among white men, not doing very well there and the role of John Edwards moving forward, clearly, Hillary Clinton may now be targeting John Edwards a little bit trying to get him out?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It would be very fascinating to watch this race for second or third place. If John Edwards can place second and Hillary Clinton comes in third, a lot of politics going toward forward will be about psychology. The Clinton camp can spend, which is the perfect stake (ph) of Barack Obama, 50 percent of the electorate African-American, she was ahead there months ago on the polls but they will say she was ahead everywhere. So, they can spin these expectations by saying, he was going to win South Carolina, of course Barack Obama was going to win, but if they come in third or even a close second/third, they've got a huge problem going forward now.
COOPER: (INAUDIBLE) but she was invincible.
GLORIA BORGER, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, and they've already spent all day lowering expectations. The Clinton campaign is very, very good about lowering expectations. So, if they do better than the lower expectations, we in the media will then say, well, it's not as bad as we thought. And you know, today they sent out a memo saying that the Obama campaign predicted victory in South Carolina six months ago. But, in fact, in November, Hillary Clinton was beating Barack Obama by about 20 points in South Carolina. So, if he beats her by, you know, if this margin turns out to be 20 points, it's huge. And I think they're going to be out to destroy John Edwards.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, SENIOR ANALYST: Expectations are a bunch of nonsense. I mean, you get the nomination one way - by winning primaries. And he's won the primary here and a very important one like he won in New Hampshire. I mean, I think, you know, there is no sub-spinning (ph), finish second or finished third. He won. That's a big deal and I think that's really all you can say about it. Sorry?
COOPER: You're talking about Barack Obama?
TOOBIN: Barack Obama, yes. He won in Iowa. Yes. And by the way, she also finished third in Iowa. KING: Winning is important. (INAUDIBLE) for Hillary Clinton going forward because there are a lot of Democrats, you run into Democrats in every state in the country, you run into them institutionally in Washington, D.C. who are for her because they thought she was going to be the juggernaut. There's not a lot of passion to their vote. They're for her for a structural institutional reason. And if Barack Obama can pierce that and now he has his second win, he had the big win in Iowa and then he stumbled (ph) in New Hampshire, that was a surprise because the poll showed he's so far ahead. He has to build from here and one thing he has to prove is he will not fall into the day to day trap of getting baited into a fight with Bill Clinton.
BORGER: And can I just say, there's going to be a lot of second guessing going on about the role of Bill Clinton, good or bad. Did he polarize this electorate too much? You know, some people say he help her in Nevada, what he did to her in South Carolina and what will Bill Clinton's role be going forward?
COOPER: Is there some sort of a backlash out there against the Clintons because of the role Bill Clinton has been play, that's the question that remains to be seen.
Amy Holmes, I see you're shaking your head there.
AMY HOLMES, POLITICAL ANALYST: I would say that's a real danger that the Clintons were courting with these tactic. We saw that their white vote was going down over this week for Barack Obama. He did get that healthy 25 percent. But when I was talking to African-American voters this week, they were getting to the point where they thought that the Clintons were possibly crossing the edge, that they wouldn't have, you know, a hearty support for Hillary, should she win the nomination. I think this has been a very ugly, nasty, and divisive week for the Democratic Party and also let's remember that the Clintons were trying to make it seem as if the black vote for Barack Obama is less significant because they were trying to lower expectations and you know, that's not a very good way about going about it.
COOPER: (INAUDIBLE) with the Clintons, there's long game and a short game. And Bill, they're playing a long game here.
BILL BERNSTEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: They're playing a long game, but it's not working. The genie is out of the bottle now and that genie is that in a Democratic primary, not in a campaign against the Republicans. Front and center now is the question of the Clintons, their history, their tactics, their truthfulness, the past, the so- called circus that many Democrats were always worried about would be an issue in the campaign, the Clintons, their relationship to each other, their past in the White House. All of this now comes front and center in a way that it has not been in the campaign until now. I think we've got to look at the big picture. And the big picture has changed. You know, a few months ago, Hillary Clinton was inevitable. Now, she is not inevitable and there's some momentum toward Obama, but he now gets to run the kind of campaign he wants. He can go back to being inspirational now and say, look, see, it not only works; this is not about a narrow difference between us on issues.
(CROSSTALK)
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: First of all, he hasn't been able to do it in the last week because again, because of the sudden (ph) strategies by the Clintons. Here's the other piece. Senator Hillary Clinton is going to have to answer to those tactics. We keep talking about Bill Clinton, Bill Clinton. She is the one who is running, not Bill Clinton. She has to answer to that. Second piece, Obama was not the favorite son in South Carolina. We keep talking about 50 percent of the black vote. But (ph) the 50 percent of the white vote. So, it's not like that this is a black primary. But here's the other key. Hillary Clinton has set herself up to be the female choice. She said in the New Hampshire debate that you know, change is having a female president. In Iowa, 50 percent of all voters, female. In New Hampshire, 50 percent of all voters, female. In Nevada, 59 percent of all voters female. In South Carolina, 61 percent of all voters, female. So clearly, you talk about South Carolina, this wasn't a black primary. In many ways, this was a greater female primary.
HOLMES: And one thing I like to add to the viewers and looking at this in terms of Obama and his race, it's true Jesse Jackson won the South Carolina primary but Al Sharpton did not, and I think we should remember this was a very significant night for Barack Obama and it was not just about race.
COOPER: Donna, I want to bring in Donna Brazile, she's in Washington, also Bill Bennett who's in Nevada. Donna Brazile, have you seen anything like the Clintons sort of a dual campaigning? Is there a precedent for this?
DONNA BRAZILE, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Not that I know of. But, of course, you have some people who have been around a lot longer. Look, this is a very difficult campaign for Barack Obama. He had an uphill climb. The establishment of the Democratic Party, you know, they're clearly backing Senator Clinton. They put tremendous resources in the state to defeat Barack Obama. He was placed in a racial, you know, box that he had to overcome in order to expand his support. Clearly, it appears that he's been able to win a significant amount of white votes. So, this is a good, great victory for Barack Obama, but this is not the end of the Clinton campaign. Senator Clinton has broad support out there. We're about to go to a national audience where the institutional players that are backing Senator Clinton will put just about everything as well as the kitchen sink in helping her to secure the nomination. So, a good victory for Barack Obama, but it's not over.
COOPER: Bill Bennett, Gloria Borger, I think has now added John Edwards to the list of people who need to watch their knees and their back -- regardless of what happens tonight. Do you think that's true?
BILL BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: (INAUDIBLE) getting a reputation for an issue here, the bar fight. Well, yes, sure, Edwards and Barack Obama and apparently every reporter within shouting distance of Bill Clinton. But let's pause again because I think (INAUDIBLE) did misunderstand my point. Fine for Jesse Jackson, but no one thought Jesse Jackson could be the president of the United States or would be the president of the United States. Not even Jesse Jackson. Barack Obama may become the president of the United States. I know it's a long campaign, but he may well do it and I think he - this is a big swing for him. The question about the Clinton and isn't it interesting we use that question (ph) to Clintons is can she stand up on her own feet and tell him to shut up and act like a chief executive because she's going into the most powerful position in the world. And finally in the discussion about expectations -
COOPER: Do you think she wants to do it? I mean, hasn't it been work?
BENNETT: Well, I don't know if it is or not. But every time that the economists pointed out, great essay on this, every time that he intervene, you know, honey, take care of that guy for me, take care of that guy for me, it under cuts her claim to being in charge, to being the person who is going to run the country. And I think it under cuts -- I think it's a very un-feminist thing to do, as well. And you know -- or is he not doing without - with her authorization? He is either/or isn't. But if he is doing it with her authorization, he ought to stop. On the expectation's point, Anderson, I mean, Jeff is right that what matters is winning, not the expectations. But if you really have a close race for second or third, given that a lot of people thought this whole thing was going to be a correlation, you know, that they were kind of an entitlement (ph) was operating here for the Clintons, this is a very big deal. This is a very big deal.
COOPER: Donna Brazile, I think saw you wanted to get?
BRAZILE: Well, I got to say this, as somebody who came out of the Jackson campaign in '84, mind you I was 23 years old; we really did think we could change America. We thought we could win. Of course we did not win but what Reverend Jackson was able to do was to encourage African-Americans all over the country to get involved in the political process. He encouraged the young people; he built the rainbow coalition, a coalition that now enables Democrats to win election also (ph). So that was the significance of Jesse Jackson. It wasn't that he didn't see the White House in the picture, but he was encouraging people to get on board and use the political process as an avenue of change.
COOPER: Well, I want Bill to be able to respond and then let's move on.
BENNETT: Sure. And that was history, too. But you talked about it was a history for African-Americans. This is a history for all Americans. Look at the white vote. There's a significant white vote for Barack Obama in the state of South Carolina. White people all over this country are interested in voting for Barack Obama. That is history.
BRAZILE: I agree.
COOPER: We're going to take a short break. When we come back, we're going to look at some actual numbers that we are getting in. CNN projecting that Barack Obama has won the Democratic primary in the date of South Carolina and a battle under way for second and third place between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: CNN has projected that Barack Obama will win the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary by a substantial, a substantial margin. The official numbers are coming in. We base our projection on the exit polls that we've been doing throughout the day across the state of South Carolina. But right now, with less than 1 percent, a tiny, tiny percent of the precincts have actually reported. So far, Barack Obama with 70 percent. Hillary Clinton only 18 percent. John Edwards 12 percent. But if you take a look at the actual numbers, you can see how tiny that percentage is of the precincts that have been reported. Barack Obama, 507 votes, Hillary Clinton 130, John Edwards, 85, Mike Gravel, the former senator from Alaska still officially in this contest not doing very well here or anyplace else. Barack Obama though is the winner, the winner today. There is a battle under way for second place, an intense battle under way for second place right now. We cannot yet project whether Hillary Clinton or John Edwards will come in second tonight. We'll continue to watch the actual numbers that will come in and that will help us determine when we can project a second place winner in South Carolina. That's important, Soledad and Bill, because, as you know, they're going to be looking for momentum moving forward and it would make a lot of difference for John Edwards if he beats Hillary Clinton in his home state of South Carolina as opposed to coming in third. But you're looking at the exit poll numbers on how this all happened.
O'BRIEN: Now, the leak (ph) leading up to this contest, there was a lot of talk about racial polarization, so, we really wanted to see how polarized was this race racially. So, we're going to take a look at these numbers. It's kind of a different way and the question is: Obama's voters, who were they?
SCHNEIDER: Well, Barack Obama has made it a point that he wants to build a biracial coalition. He won Iowa which was overwhelmingly white. He won South Carolina tonight. How multi-cultural biracial was his coalition? Take a look. His vote today was 70 percent, almost 80 percent African-American. That's four-to-one more African- Americans than white voters. So, there was some diversity there, but it was dominantly African-American. It was mostly a black vote that he got.
O'BRIEN: How about for Hillary Clinton?
SCHNEIDER: Hers was a little bit more diverse. Her coalition was 63 -- 62 percent here white, but a third of her voters, 34 percent, were African-American. So, she got a little bit more diversity in her vote.
O'BRIEN: And not an insignificant number of African-Americans -- voting for Hillary Clinton.
SCHNEIDER: That's right. Yes, she still has a strong appeal to a lot of African-American voters and Obama has some support among white voters even in South Carolina. So, total -- there was no total racial polarization.
O'BRIEN: John Edwards?
SCHNEIDER: John Edwards is a candidate who drew only among white voters. Take a look at this. His vote was overwhelmingly white, 91 percent. Seven percent of his voters were African-Americans. That's interesting because when he won South Carolina last time in 2004, 37 percent of African-American voters voted for John Edwards, a native South Carolinian. So, he's never had a serious problem with African- American voters. This time, he didn't draw nearly as much because they were so totally divided between two candidates who had a powerful appeal to black voters. One: Barack Obama, the other: Hillary Clinton.
O'BRIEN: Depending on whether he comes in second or third, he might be very much missing that black vote. Certainly, (INAUDIBLE). Vote numbers are in. Wolf?
BLITZER: He did come in second in Iowa barely ahead of Hillary Clinton. So, if he does manage to pull out a second place finish in South Carolina, it's by no means clear that he will because there is a competition under way. That would be some bragging rights going into Super Tuesday.
SCHNEIDER: Yes, it would be. And it would be a problem for Hillary Clinton to come in third in South Carolina. I think that would be an embarrassment.
BLITZER: All right, guys. I know you're going to go some more numbers for us -- exit poll numbers. We'll share them with our viewers. I want to speak right now with Congressman James Clyburn, a Democrat of South Carolina. He's the number three Democrat in the House of Representatives. He's the majority whip. He's the highest ranking African-American in the United States Congress. And congressman, thanks very much for joining us. What do you think, Barack Obama the big winner in your home state of South Carolina tonight, what do you think?
REP. JAMES CLYBURN, (D) SOUTH CAROLINA: Well, I feel real good about this, Wolf. We worked very hard so that African-Americans could have a say in this process early on so that we would be able to vet our candidate among those voters in a way that would give us some idea about how the base reacts. So, I'm very pleased that this primary has been so successful and I am hopeful that we can now get this whole issue of racial differences behind us and go forward talking about the vision that our candidates have, their competing visions for this great nation and about our vision of the Democratic Party.
BLITZER: I know until today, you have been neutral throughout this entire process. You have not expressed a presence for I any of these three Democratic presidential candidates. Are you ready to tell our viewers who you voted for today?
CLYBURN: No sir, I'm not ready to do that. I think we're going to go all the way up to the convention. I want to be involved in this process as a fair and impartial arbiter, if I need to be that. I plan to be traveling this entire country for the next few weeks on behalf of the Democratic Party, and I want to have credibility as I go out. So I'm not sharing with anybody who I voted for today.
BLITZER: I know, you told me the other day that you thought it could go all the way to the Democratic convention in Denver, there could be a brokered convention at the end of the summer that none of these three candidates necessarily would have enough delegates to guarantee that they would get the nomination. Do you still feel like that?
CLYBURN: Yes, I do feel that way. And I think it would be very, very good if that were to occur for two reasons. First of all, I do believe that when you allow people to come into the process, you've got a group of superdelegates and the officials of the party, the elected officials, as well; they ought to be able to have a common effect on the entire convention. And also this front loading that took place, if we can get back to a cool, calm, organized process, having Super Tuesday doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. And I think that when we have proportional voting as we do have, front loading will make no sense unless you've got one dominant candidate. We've got three candidates now; no one of them is particularly that dominant. All three of them are going to leave South Carolina with a ticket all the way to the convention. I'll bet (ph) that they won't all have first class tickets, but they'll all have tickets and they're eligible (ph) to be upgraded somewhere along the way.
BLITZER: One final question before I let you go. You made news earlier in the week when you said to Bill Clinton, he should chill a little bit because all of this talk of race and Dr. Martin Luther King and LBJ, all of this was seeming to be getting out of control and now you're saying you think this is going to be history, that they can move on and forget about the whole racial factor, which did emerge in South Carolina. On the basis of what -- why do you think it will now be history? Have you spoken to these three candidates and have you told them, you know what, cool it?
CLYBURN: No, I have not spoken to anybody today. I think the voters spoke tonight. The last exit polls I saw indicated that the vote of white voters in this primary, around 25 percent of them, went to Obama. Around 36 percent of them went to Mrs. Clinton. And the rest went to Mr. Edwards. That is the voters speaking the same language that I spoke earlier this week. Everybody ought to just chill, put this stuff behind us, and let's talk about the issues. Let's talk about the future. Let's compare our party to the Republican Party and let's let our candidates have a good competing visions campaign.
BLITZER: The majority whip in the United States Congress, James Clyburn. Congressman, thanks very much for coming in.
CLYBURN: Thank you so much for having me, Wolf.
BLITZER: We're going take a quick break. Much more of our coverage from the CNN Election Center are coming up. We'll take a closer at the numbers. Remember, there is a battle under way for second place in South Carolina right now between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. But Barack Obama: The big winner tonight with a substantial margin. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN, ANCHOR: Barack Obama the big winner in South Carolina tonight. Welcome back to the CNN Election Center. I'm Wolf Blitzer reporting. Let's take a look at the actual numbers that are coming in. We projected on the basis of exit polls that Barack Obama will win the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary by a substantial margin. Very few precincts have reported, less than 1%. So far 58% with these tiny numbers coming in for Barack Obama, 29% for Hillary Clinton, 13% for John Edwards.
But if we take a closer look at the hard numbers that have actually come in, small, very small in a state like South Carolina, 2,500 or so for Barack Obama to 1,200 for Hillary Clinton, 546 for John Edwards. Remember, less than 1% of the precincts have reported. We'll keep a running tally of all these numbers. You can always go to cnnpolitics.com and see how these numbers are coming in. That's where get them. You can get them at the same time.
There is a battle under way for second place right now between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. We cannot yet project based on the actual numbers nor on the exit polls who will come in second place. We're watching that battle very closely, very important for both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. There's another contest that we're following, as well. That's coming up Anderson Cooper, on Tuesday involving a different party, the Republicans. And we're getting some information.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN, ANCHOR: Yes, very contentious race in Florida right now among the Republicans. John King, you have just gotten some good news for John McCain.
JOHN KING, CNN, CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: In a neck and neck race, Anderson in Florida, John McCain in about ten minutes we are told received the endorsement of Florida's popular Republican governor Charlie Crist. He has been lobbying for this endorsement for some time. Just the other, just yesterday, he picked up the endorsement of Mel Martinez, a member of the United State Senate. Now he will get the endorsement of Charlie Crist, a popular governor in the state, a popular governor who is actually pushing a tax cut initiative, a property tax cut initiative that is on the ballot as well as the presidential primary. There's a neck and neck race between McCain and Mitt Romney. Heated back and forth over who is best to lead the economy, a heated back and forth over Iraq in the last 24 hours and now John McCain hoping that the endorsement of a popular governor will give him a point or two in this race, in what is a critically, critically tight contest.
COOPER: It's remarkable how heated this race has become between John McCain and Mitt Romney in the last 48 hours. Really since the last debate in which they were very cordial with each other. What's happened in the last couple of days?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: It's gotten close. That's what's happened there. They're so neck and neck. You can't under estimate the importance of a governor's endorsement because when you have the state establishment with you as in the governor's office that really helps you in your get out the vote effort, in your organization. And in this kind of a close race.
COOPER: And in a large state like Florida.
BORGER: And in a large state like Florida, that really, really matters. So what McCain has done is he's started to take on Mitt Romney on the Iraq war saying that Romney is really for a secret time table to withdraw from Iraq because what McCain is...
COPPER: This is all based on one interview that Mitt Romney gave several months ago.
BORGER: To a morning news show but what McCain clearly wants to do is change the topic of conversation from the economy back to the war where he's on terra firma -
COOPER: and that's Mitt Romney's allegations saying that this is clearly John McCain uncomfortable with the economy, trying to switch it back to an area where he is more comfortable.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN, SENIOR ANALYST: This is really masterful campaigning by McCain because this comment that Romney made was months ago. McCain has manufactured this controversy from coal cloth just so he could start having a fight over Iraq which he feels is to his advantage.
KING: And what Romney said in that interview, he was asked, do you support a time table for withdrawing the troops. The president was about to meet with President Al-Maliki of Iraq and what he said was if they come up with that in private, whatever they do in private, don't have any public time lines. They need to have a meeting about benchmarks. McCain is interpreting that to say that Romney backed a secret time table.
COOPER: And he is comparing it to what the Democrats want which McCain said is like waiving a white flag.
KING: This was back in April 2007. Many Republicans were getting very waffly on the war in Iraq. It was a tide of unpopularity. Many Republicans were saying it's time to get out. Mr. President, you need to go tell President Al-Maliki he has a few more months at best. And so what McCain is saying I stood up then and said, no, over my dead body a time table. That's what Romney should have done instead of giving at least, what you can say is a vague statement. Now, what the Romney camp says is no way, he never said a time line, never said a secret timeline. McCain says he didn't say no time line. So they're having this debate.
But the bigger point, there are 1.7 million veterans in Florida. McCain wants them to vote. The polling right now shows they're not voting at the percentage he would like them to vote. So, he wants them to have a debate about the economy in the last 48 hours. He wants to have debate about security. He thinks that's his strength. TOOBIN: Yes, it is worth remembering that the position they are arguing for is one favored about a third of the American people. This is an unpopular position in a general election. Now, this is a primary. It is but everybody is watching here. So it is worth remembering that this party is out of step with what appears to be --
COOPER: Let's check with CNN's Dana Bash who is in Florida covering the race down there. Dana, you talked with the governor a while back. He didn't really tip his hand whether or not he was going to do this. John King reporting tonight, though, from sources that he will be endorsing John McCain.
DANA BASH, CNN, CORRESPONDENT: That's right, he will be. We're told that he's going to be doing that in just a couple of minutes. John and I actually both had a chance to talk to Governor Crist just a couple of days ago at a debate here in Florida. And Governor Crist really, he didn't want to tip his hand, but he was cagey enough to lead to us believe that he was likely to endorse somebody. I actually spoke to John McCain myself about it. I asked him if he thought Governor Crist would endorse him and he said he didn't think so. But these two men are actually pretty close personally.
John McCain came down here and campaigned for Governor Crist and they became good friends actually during that time. So that certainly is why Governor Crist is going to endorse him. Look, at this point in this race here in Florida, anything that can help perhaps tip the balance for either John McCain or Mitt Romney frankly could likely make a big difference because it is so close between these two men vying for the top spot here.
I'd like to weigh in on and what you were talking about with regards to this intense back and forth today between John McCain and Mitt Romney on the issue of the war. The other thing to keep in mind if you talk to the McCain campaign that they're trying to get out here isn't so much just the fact that John McCain wants to the make clear that he would be a better commander in chief, that he's better on national security issues and shift the dynamic in the narrative to that issue, but also they're trying to get at this issue that has plagued Mitt Romney for some time now and that is questions about his authenticity, questions about whether or not he shifts with the political winds and whether or not Mitt Romney was talking about a time line for a withdrawal or just a time table at that point. What they're trying to emphasize either subtlety or at least more overtly is that they think that Mitt Romney was not as stalwart in his support for the Iraq war at a time when it wasn't really necessarily politically beneficial to be doing that. So that is the other dynamic here. They're trying to play out the authenticity issue with regard to Mitt Romney.
COOPER: Right. Dana Bash from Miami. We're going to cover Governor Crist's remarks when they happen. We'll bring those to you but let's switch back to the really big story of the night.
Barack Obama projected to win in the state of South Carolina. Just some 2% of the precincts reporting. Obama with 51%. Hillary Clinton with 34 and John Edwards with 15. But, again, that is just 2%. But Barack Obama is projected to be the winner in the state of South Carolina. The fact that we are talking about and have been talking about so much about race tonight, I mean, I find it kind of depressing. It's not - it's so not how this race started out, you know, just a month ago. The fact that it is now topic number one, a, is that appropriate, and what does that say about what has been going on?
TOOBIN: Well, maybe we're wrong. I mean, maybe we're overemphasizing it. Maybe in fact this race is not that much about race. I mean, I think that's entirely possible. And maybe we're overemphasizing Bill Clinton's role, that you know, pretending that he's, you know, some toxic presence in the race. Maybe people want a fresh face. Maybe they want a politics of hope.
COOPER: Let me just jump in right here. We are able to make another projection in the race in South Carolina.
And we are now projecting that Senator Hillary Clinton is going to receive second place in South Carolina. John Edwards is projected to come in third in this race. This is based on exit polls, as well as the numbers that we have been receiving thus far. So, Gloria Borger, what do you make of that?
BORGER: Well, I think that's really good news for Hillary Clinton because she did not want to come in third to John Edwards. That would have been truly, truly damaging to her campaign. And I think what we're looking at now is a trench warfare going on. I think this is going to be about demographics and race may matter, Jeff, in certain states more than it matters in other states. And can cut different ways in different states. But it's also going to be about resources. How do these candidates spend whatever money they have left and raise enough money to advertise in the super Tuesday states and where do they use their resources?
KING: And issues. And issues - Iraq, health care, the economy.
BORGER: Exactly. The Democrats have fought these issues. Now they've got to get their messages out and get their voters out.
(crosstalk)
COOPER: John is weighing on and then we're going to (inaudible)
KING: From an idealistic standpoint, let's hope that the race is not about race, if you will, going on. But if you ask the people in the Obama war room if they thought the last 72 hours, 100 hours in South Carolina was about race and if what Bill Clinton was saying was to make it about race, they will tell you, yes, yes, yes and yes. That's what they think. So that's their mind set going forward. Whether the voters process it differently, that's a different question.
COOPER: By discussing it so much, does the media make it worse?
KING: Let me ask you this. Bill Clinton accused the media of over playing this. Bill Clinton was making his way down the road block -- and I covered Bill Clinton for 15 years of my life. At times when I wanted to ask him questions about the war, about personal character controversies and everything else, he is very capable of walking right past you. He stopped and he stopped at length and he answered though questions. He did because he wanted to. When he gave the fairytale speech in New Hampshire, he did it because he wanted to. He made a political calculation to do this. What was his calculation? We'll ask him when the campaign's over maybe. But he made a calculation to do that. He was president of the United States and the leader of the free world. He knows how to walk past a line of reporters and ignore questions.
COOPER: Carl Bernstein.
CARL BERNSTEIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I'm going to disagree about this being about the issues. I think that the difference between these two candidates on the issues is not that great. And it's going to go to questions of perception of character and there's going to be a huge role to be played by the press. Bill Clinton is not wrong that the press is on their backs and if they have not been as tough on Obama. And it really figures in this equation because now the press I think is going to go look at what kind of campaign we've seen by now and what was the strategy that got the Clintons into this trouble in the first place because the big picture is racially that he's transcended. Obama has transcended race in this sense. He has won in all white Iowa. He damn near beat Hillary Clinton in all white New Hampshire. He's won in the deep south. This is going to require some real trench warfare to get delegates. That's now where we are.
AMY HOLMES, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: And to get to the point that you were talking about race and gender, I think it's a simple way for the media to address these issues. But let's look at when the exit polling gets more of this, let's look at age, let's look at the age groups that Obama was able to attract and the age groups that Hillary is able to attract. Because one of the things, I think, that was coming out over this week was that for African-American voters, part of Obama's appeal was also his youth, they like the fact that he's their JFK and that's also true for white voters. So, I think it oversimplified that to day that Obama appeals to average American (inaudible).
Another thing that they liked about him was the fact that he transcends race and attracts white voters. They think that's something is an asset and puts his leadership skills. So again, you know, getting to your point, Anderson, I think if we look at the exit polling data when it comes to age and generational gap, you'll see that the question is answered more fully.
ANDERSON: Let me just jump in. I know we got to take a break, but to the extent that we are talking about race, does that hurt Barack Obama? I mean, he made a point early on of not talking about race. And seemed to go out of his way not to talk about race. The fact that it has become front and center, does that hurt him down the road?
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: There's a difference about talking about race and denying the reality of race. And so he does not want to o that. We cannot deny the reality of race. We are talking about South Carolina. In 2004, 53% of the people in Georgia who voted, African-American. Alabama, 45%. You go to Virginia, significant population. You know, Mississippi, Louisiana, those are critical states as well. And so what is it's strategy. Who is going to pick which parts of certain groups. So you're Obama, you can sit back and say OK, I'm going to get x percentage of this group. Who's going to get white male vote? White female vote? Who's going to get this young vote to put together an actual coalition? Tonight he won every age demographic tonight. The first time he's done that in this campaign.
COOPER: We've got to take a break. We'll be right back. Our coverage continues. You can also check on us online at cnnpolitics.com. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Hillary Clinton leaving a hotel in South Carolina just a little while ago. She's getting ready to fly off to Tennessee. That's one of the super Tuesday states. Hillary Clinton coming in second place in South Carolina tonight. Barack Obama the big winner in South Carolina. John Edwards will come in third based on our CNN exit poll projection as well as the actual numbers that are now coming in. There you see Hillary Clinton in some videotape that we just got a little while ago. She's getting ready to fly off to Nashville, Tennessee.
Let's show you the numbers, the real newspapers as they're coming in right now with 7% of the precincts in South Carolina now officially reporting. Barack Obama maintains his clear lead with 51% to 30% for Hillary Clinton, 19% for Barack Obama. If we zoom in on the actual numbers that are actually coming in right now, we can get a closer understanding. 18, 500 or so for Barack Obama to 10,600 for Hillary Clinton and 6,900 for John Edwards. Remember, that's with 7% of the precincts reporting. Based on these numbers and based on the exit poll projections that we've been sharing with you since the polls closed, about 48 minutes ago, we've projected that Barack Obama will be the winner by a substantial margin. Tonight Hillary Clinton will come in second. John Edwards will come in third.
By the way, 45 delegates to the Democratic national convention in Denver are at stake right now in the voting in South Carolina. An additional nine super delegates will be given to South Carolina as well and based on our initial estimate. So far, Barack Obama will get four of those. Hillary Clinton will get three of those. And we're waiting to see how the other remaining delegates will be allocated on the basis of the vote tonight, how many John Edwards will get. Remember, 45 are at stake in the voting today. We're watching all of this very, very closely. You're looking also by the way over here, some live pictures that are coming in from St. Petersburg, Florida, an important story developing on the Republican side, as well as our John King reported just a few moments ago. The governor of Florida, Charlie Crist, will endorse John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, momentarily. Once that happens, we'll go there and share that with you. We're also standing by to hear from Hillary Clinton, from Barack Obama, from John Edwards. They'll be making statements in the course of this evening speaking to their supporters and speaking to the nation. We'll share that with you, as well. All of this happening on this important day, but we're looking forward first to Tuesday when the Republicans hold their fiercely fought primary in the state of Florida and then beyond.
A week from Tuesday, February 5th, that super Tuesday. Super Tuesday where 20 to 25 states will hold Democratic and Republican contests and that could have a major, major influence on what happens going into the conventions in Denver and St. Paul. I want to go back to Anderson Cooper and the best political team on television. A lot of people suggesting already that we may not know on February 5th who the Democratic nominee is, who the Republican nominee is. We may be going through the same process what we're doing right now throughout the month of February, March. It may be into April and maybe to the convention at the end of August/early September.
COOPER: It's looking more and more like that. People are talking about John Edwards sort of a king maker having a role to play even up toward the conventions. I want to check in with Carl Bernstein though -- actually, Governor Crist I'm told is coming up to the stage so let's just quickly check in there before we go to Carl. We are watching very closely.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. CHARLIE CRIST (R), FLORIDA: Thank you very much. Thank you, Peter. I appreciate your kind words. Welcome to Pinellas County. It's great to have all of you here. I have the distinct honor tonight. I have the privilege of introducing our special guest. A great American and a great friend, Senator McCain, would you please join me at the podium? [ applause ]
As you know, we have a very important election here in Florida come Tuesday, just three days away. And the man who stands next to me really is a true American hero. He is a great United States senator. He was a great member of Congress. He's a great friend to Florida. I think the world of him. And we have a lot of great people that are running for president this year who would all do well. But what we have to think about when it comes to Tuesday who you're going to vote for and who you're going to support. And I have been thinking about it a lot. And I have to tell you that after thinking about it as much as I have, I don't think anybody could do better than the man who stands next to me, Senator John McCain. [ applause ]
That's an endorsement.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Charlie. Thank you, Governor. Thank you, I'm very honored. I cannot tell you. I cannot describe the honor and privilege that I feel being endorsed by this great governor of this great state of Florida. Thank you, god bless you, and thank you, Charlie. And I'm afraid this sound system is brought to you by the Democrat national committee, so I will -- Charlie, I'm deeply honored. I thank all of you for being here. I thank you for your support of our party. I thank you for your support for our nation, and I thank you for your support of this great governor who is known throughout this nation and the world as one of the great leaders in the 21st century. And I thank you for your support of him. And I look forward, I look forward as president of the United States of working with Charlie Crist on a number of issues that I -- a couple of which that I would like to discuss with you tonight.
But, first of all, I want to say thank you for your support of our party. Thank you. Without your support and without your help -- the entire state of Florida, it would not be possible to back our incredibly strong and wonderful list of candidates and I'd like to begin by thanking --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Senator John McCain being endorsed there by Florida's popular Governor, Charlie Crist. We want to bring you Bill Bennett, who is a CNN contributor who has been listening in. Bill, any thoughts on this endorsement?
BILL BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: It's a very big deal. It's been a very close race. In Florida, indeed in a lot of the states, the Romney-McCain tension has been described as what's the priority for Republicans, is it the war or the economy. If it's the war, edge McCain. If it's the economy, edge Romney. So you're looking at numbers that are very close. The Crist endorsement can help McCain a lot. I have to say, because the other thing you know, Anderson, that's going on, everybody knows, is that a lot of conservatives are very upset at the prospect of John McCain. Talk show host, not me, because lot of them are very critical of him. So I've been defending John McCain all week, you know, as a guy I disagree with, but a guy who is honorable and I think a very good candidate. But the blow he took at Romney was way below the belt. He's a maverick candidate. He should apologize for it. He twisted that entirely out of context. He's always criticizing people doing that to him and he absolutely should not have done it. It just wasn't fair and honor is his watch word and he -- I think it would be great if he said I got that one wrong. And that would be a rare thing. That would be a rare thing in politics, but he's a rare maverick character in politics.
COOPER: I want to bring John King just to explain to viewers the back and forth between these two what it's based on.
KING: The McCain camp is defending this, but as Bill, Bill's not the only one out there, not the only one outside of the Romney campaign saying that Senator McCain is twisting or expanding or interpreting in a way that's not fair to Governor Romney.
What Governor Romney said in an interview just before President Bush met with Prime Minister Al-Maliki of Iraq and there's a lot of pressure on Al-Maliki at the time because it was April '07, the war was incredibly unpopular and he gave an interview in which he said you can't have a public time line for withdrawal, which you can talk in private about benchmarks, time line, whatever. He did not say the president should go to Iraq and give Al-Maliki a time line for withdrawal in private. Governor Romney did not say that. He gave a vaguely worded statement in which he didn't flatly rule that out at all. He said he would veto any public time line. Governor Romney did say that. He said any bill that came to him or any president should veto a public time line. His statement about what should happen in private was sufficiently vague from the McCain standpoint of view that they're saying he said the president should go there and privately give a withdrawal time line to Al-Maliki. Now, Romney did not say that. He did have a vague statement and what the McCain camp is saying is at a time when Republicans are starting to waffle on the war, Governor Romney was going soft on the war.
COOPER: Governor Romney has called for an apology. John McCain's response said that he owes an apology for the fighting men and women, the troops.
BORGER: Right. It's not going to happen. This is sort of McCain's pay back because Romney keeps talking about how John McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts. Which he did and he said the reason he did was he wanted more spending cuts. But Romney, of course, keeps hammering at somebody who is not a tax cutter at heart and --
COOPER: And John McCain has voted to make the tax cuts permanent.
BORGER: And he votes for every tax cut that comes down the pike, et cetera. But this is the kind of squabbling you get into in this kind of a close race.
TOOBIN: But look what McCain is not talking about right now, which is immigration. And that's very good for John McCain because most Republican party voters don't like his position on immigration. And he has managed to talk about the war in this I think very deceptive way and he's talking about the economy. But remember those Iowa debates, they were all about immigration and that issue has fallen off the map.
COOPER: I just want to ask you a question, we have some this Republican debate coming up at the Ronald Reagan Library I think on Wednesday of next week that I'll be moderating. The last Republican debate was incredibly civil. The last couple days have been anything but. What do you anticipate for next week's debate?
BENNETT: Tune in Anderson Cooper for the debate. I think it'll be very interesting. I mean, of course it will be after Tuesday. So somebody will have won. What that will do to tempers and dispositions, I don't know. But I expect it'll be pretty much a two- man debate. That's what I'd anticipate and I expect it'll be intense. Could be the last stand for somebody. Because whoever loses in Florida is hurt and has to do something very dramatic to get back in the lead. So, it is a big deal.
(crosstalk)
KING: Key point, Florida is the game changer. The McCain camp believes it is going to end up in a one on one race with Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani is going to come in third or worse in Florida. For all intents and purposes, he is done. Mike Huckabee is on a (inaudible) financial, maybe will do well in a few southern states but the calculation in the McCain camp and the Romney camps is that he is done as well. We're going to have a one-on-one race between McCain and Romney, which McCain needs the momentum Florida. He needs to be able to say I won a big state, a Republican only primary or else he is the moderate up against the conservative Romney and Romney can keep writing checks especially if he wins. McCain is low on money. They think they need to win Florida, heading into a one-on-one with Romney to come out on top.
BORGER: Anderson, I think it will be fine because these two guys they don't really like each other.
COOPER: They don't.
BORGER: I mean, this is...
COOPER: Does anyone on the Republican side like Mitt Romney? He's running against them.
KING: It is particularly deep.
(crosstalk)
BORGER: There you go. McCain and Romney. And there's other big development in Florida.
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