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American Morning

Florida Votes: Critical Contest for GOP; State of the Union Address: Bush Talks on Economy and Iraq; Kennedys Backs Obama: Why they Chose Him; Interview with Congressman Patrick Kennedy

Aired January 29, 2008 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, good morning to you, Kiran, from Winter Park, Florida, at Bakely's Restaurant this morning. I'm John Roberts. We begin with the fight for Florida going on right now. The polls just opening right now. WPLG bringing us some live pictures here. This is in Hollywood, Florida. The first voters there just waiting outside the doors about to open here, lining up already, in what is expected to be record turnout for this Florida primary.
Mitt Romney and John McCain running neck and neck here in the race that could reshape the Republican field. And there they go. It looks like they're opening the doors, and they're letting folks in. Good morning, come on in. I'm going to exercise your mandate here. Vote for the candidate of your choice. There they go.

So, who is going to be the nominee? Well, Rudy Giuliani suggesting whoever wins Florida is going be the nominee. But for the Republicans, this is a must-have win. McCain and Romney turning up the heat in the final hours of the campaign, looking to gain frontrunner status. CNN's Mary Snow is live in Tampa for us this morning. Good morning, Mary.

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, John. You know, it's been growing increasingly intense, so much at stake here. If Senator John McCain wins here, that could mean he'll be the national frontrunner for the Republican Party. If Mitt Romney wins here, that would mean that the race would still be wide open. In the last couple of days, they have really turned up the heat.

Mitt Romney accusing Senator McCain of being a liberal, taking aim at his legislation on immigration, campaign finance reform and climate change. Senator McCain has fired back saying Mitt Romney is a flip-flopper. Here's a little bit of what they had to say last night on CNN.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And people are going to be looking at his record as governor. Jobs very weak economy. Jobs fleeing the state, loss of manufacturing jobs. $730 million in tax increases. And now they're saddled with a $245 million debt from his government-mandated health care system.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: McCain-Feingold, which was supposed to take the impact of money out of politics, has made things worse. McCain-Kennedy has been viewed by virtually all as an amnesty bill for illegals. And then, finally, McCain-Lieberman which puts about $1,000 tax on gasoline for a year for people here in Florida for a family of four. These are all -- these are not conservative ideas. These are ideas that Democrats have warmed up to.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SNOW: And while McCain and Romney duked it out. Rudy Giuliani seized on their sniping to try to set himself as being above the fray and strike a positive tone. But for Rudy Giuliani, this is a make or break state. He took a back seat in early contests and waited it out while concentrating here on Florida.

He is betting on winning here, launching into Super Tuesday. He has been trailing in the polls. He says that he believes that he can pull off a surprise. He prides himself on doing the impossible, and he believes that he has a chance of winning here. What will happen after that? So far, he has said that he will attend CNN's Republican presidential debate in California on Wednesday. But a lot of questions about where he'll go from here if he doesn't pull through -- John.

ROBERTS: Oh, we'll find out how he does in about 13 hours' time. Mary Snow for us this morning in St. Petersburg. Mary, thanks.

We'll ask Rudy Giuliani about the future of his campaign if he doesn't win today's primary when he joins us coming up at our next half hour here of AMERICAN MORNING.

The Democratic candidates are keeping a close eye on Florida. It's a key swing state in the national election. Hillary Clinton will stop here tonight. She is trying to convince voters that she is the most electable Democrat as she heads into next week's Super Tuesday contest.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: On February 5th, 22 states will help pick a president. And each and every one of you has a voice and a vote equal to anybody else's. You have the opportunity to ask yourself the two most important questions. Who would be the best president on day one, and who is our best nominee to get elected? Because we've got to win in November, 2008, in order to make all of these changes that we care so much about.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: She was campaigning in Massachusetts, one of the big states of the 22 that are voted for the Democrats on Super Tuesday. We are on the road until February 5th, talking with voters and candidates about the issues to help you choose a president. Coming up next, we head across the country to southern California for CNN's back-to-back debates with Democrats and Republicans.

And be sure to tune in tonight for a CNN special. The Election Center team will be live starting at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Be sure to check out the best political team on television tonight for complete coverage of the Florida primary -- Kiran.

CHETRY: Thanks, John. Well, President Bush used his last State of the Union Address to push Congress to act quickly on his $150 billion economic stimulus package.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: At kitchen tables across our country, there is a concern about our economic future. In the long run, Americans can be confident about our economic growth.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: Ed Henry is live at the White House with more this morning. You know, and oftentimes, the text, Ed, is already released ahead of time in the State of the Union. It's the reactions within the audience that is really just so priceless.

ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, absolutely. And, Kiran, you know, with all those Democratic presidential candidates in the room last night, it certainly seemed like the president's bully pulpit is shrinking. But you have to give Mr. Bush this -- on the two big issues likely to dominate his final year in office, Iraq and the economy, he's still setting the agenda.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Madam Speaker, the president of the United States.

HENRY (voice-over): In his final State of the Union, a president who previously used this stage to build the case for war in Iraq and launched dramatic domestic initiatives like Social Security reform, this time offered little that was new or bold, a nod to the fact his own megaphone is not so loud, as candidates for his job like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have seized the attention. So Mr. Bush began a little wistful.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Seven years have passed since I first stood before you at this rostrum. In that time, our country has been tested in ways none of us could have imagined.

HENRY: Then the president turned to the two issues that will define his legacy -- Iraq overseas and the economy at home, trying to make the case he can work with Democrats to prevent America from sliding into recession.

BUSH: In this election year, let us show our fellow Americans that we recognize our responsibilities and are determined to meet them.

HENRY: But Mr. Bush also had a warning for Democrats -- they need to move quickly to complete action on a $150 billion plan to stimulate the economy, and resist the temptation to load it up with extra provisions. BUSH: That would delay it or derail it and neither option is acceptable. This is a good agreement that will keep our economy growing and our people working, and this Congress must pass it as soon as possible.

HENRY: In the Democratic response, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius said the stimulus package should just be a starting point to deal with the credit crisis.

GOV. KATHLEEN SEBELIUS (D), KANSAS: Our struggling economy requires urgent and immediate action and then sustained attention. Families can't pay their bills.

HENRY: On Iraq, Mr. Bush noted in last year's speech he was defending a controversial surge policy. But this year, there are security gains and 20,000 U.S. troops are coming home.

BUSH: Some may deny the surge is working. But among the terrorists, there is no doubt -- Al Qaeda is on the run in Iraq and this enemy will be defeated.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HENRY: But Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid pointed out there's still been very little political progress within the Iraqi government. And even with these troop cuts, there are still going to be about 140,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, a reminder that this part of the president's legacy still up for grabs -- Kiran.

CHETRY: Ed Henry at the White House for us. Thank you.

The rivalry between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama was visible at times last night. At the president's State of the Union Address, Senators Clinton and Obama were actually sitting across the aisle from each other, four senators between them. Neither acknowledged the other. And afterwards, Hillary went to shake Senator Ted Kennedy's hand. Obama turned his back. The president shook Obama's hand after his speech, but not Clinton.

Senator Barack Obama was quick to criticize the president's speech. He says the president offered nothing new, and told CNN's Anderson Cooper that the president's plans to turn the economy around won't be enough to help Americans.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People are anxious. As I travel around the country, they are worried about losing their homes. They are worried about losing their jobs. They can't afford to retire. They're trying to figure out how to finance their kids' college education. They want something much more robust than the warmed over policy prescriptions and the extensions of the Bush tax cuts that was the centerpiece of his policies.

(END VIDEO CLIP) CHETRY: Obama also said the president's speech lacked the sense of urgency. It's that message of change that helped Barack Obama secure the endorsement of two generations of Kennedys. And coming up in just a few minutes, we're going to be speaking with Rhode Island Representative Patrick Kennedy -- John.

ROBERTS: Kiran, a possible stumbling block for the president's economic stimulus plan. Montana Democrat Max Baucus will give the Senate an extended version tomorrow. He wants tax rebates cut by $100 for individuals and $200 for couples. But the extra $300 rebate per child would stay as it is. He also wants more unemployment benefits.

The Fed is meeting later on today and could cut rates again by tomorrow. A new study out this morning says economists see a 50-50 chance that the economy will sink into recession this year. Can another Fed rate cut change those odds? Our Ali Velshi live at the Chicago Board of Trade this morning. So, Ali, what's the buzz there in Chicago today?

ALI VELSHI, CNN SR. BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, the buzz right now is very low. It's a very empty Chicago Board of Trade. As you can see, John, this will start to fill up within the next hour or so with traders who are talking about exactly what you were talking about. What is going to happen with the economy? The survey you referred to done by "USA Today" of about 51 economists says it's a bit of a coin toss. We could be in a recession. A recession could start this year.

In fact, we'll get more information on that tomorrow when we find about what economic activity was at the end of last year. But we'll also possibly get a Fed rate cut within the next 36 hours or so. Now, the Fed surprised us last Tuesday when we were together in Myrtle Beach with that sudden rate cut of three-quarters of a percentage point. We are expecting possibly another half a percentage point tomorrow, and what happens is that it drops the prime rate down.

Prime rate is now at 6.5 percent. So that will come down to your rates that are connected to the prime rate will be lower. Mortgage rates which work off of fixed rates traded around here will probably drop a little bit. So will the dollar, and that might stoke inflation fears. Now, when you have inflation concerns and you're dropping rates, that's a concern for the economy. So, it all depends on what you think.

I want to tell you about some mortgage numbers that came out. It turns out the 2007 mortgage foreclosures were up 75 percent. You look at the numbers across America, you'll see that nearly 400 more -- more than 400,000 homes were actually lost to foreclosure in 2007. California heads that list followed by Michigan and Nevada. Everybody whose house is in foreclosure doesn't end up losing the house, but more than 400,000 homes lost in 2007. So, John, we're following all of that, and we'll be here when and if the Fed cuts rates -- John.

ROBERTS: Yes. Here in Florida, 165,000 homes went into foreclosure. So, huge problem particularly in this election year.

VELSHI: Yes.

ROBERTS: Ali Velshi for us this morning in Chicago. Ali, thanks -- Kiran.

CHETRY: Well, our Alina Cho is here now with a look at some of the stories developing this morning. Good to see you.

ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, good to see you. Kiran, good morning. Good morning, everybody.

We're going to begin with more on the economic front. Members of the European Union are meeting today in London. The leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Italy are talking about how to respond to the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. Now, there are two incidents that have brought that situation into sharper focus in Europe. The massive losses caused by a rogue trader at a French bank, and the problems of UK lender, Northern Rock.

President Bush is signing a new law banning the sale of leftover F-14 fighter jet parts. The surplus option had been a prime place for countries like Iran to shop for those parts. Now, Iran is the only country still trying to fly F-14 fighter jets, otherwise known as Tomcats. The U.S. retired its fleet back in 2006.

The White House is scrapping the plan to give anti-radiation pills to people living within a 10 to 20-mile radius of nuclear plants. The president's chief science adviser says the pills offer "negligible additional protection against radiation exposure." The government already stock piles those pills for people within 10 miles of a reactor. Back in 2002, Congress ordered wider distribution of the pills. Critics of this new plan say the White House is leaving families unprotected in case of an accident or terrorist attack.

Great news for kids afraid to get the flu shot. Instead of those dreaded needles, researchers in South Korea say they're actually working on an oral vaccine. Scientists there said they placed drops under the tongues of mice and that helps fight the flu. They also say it could be another alternative for people who don't like the nasal spray.

And it looks like the "Grammys" are a go. The Writers Guild has sealed an interim deal with the producers of the "Grammys" allowing Hollywood writers to work on the non-singing parts of the show. It also means writers won't picket, of course, and stars can attend without crossing the picket line. The "Grammys Awards" are February 10th in Los Angeles. And the writers actually said that they feel for the musicians because they're dealing with some of the same issues in what they call fair compensation especially on the Internet.

CHETRY: That's right.

CHO: As you know, there's a lot of free downloading going on.

CHETRY: Exactly. And that's the problem and it's the rub with why they've been deadlocked for so long, this writers strike.

CHO: That's right. So the "Grammys" are a go. We'll have to see about the "Oscars."

CHETRY: All right. Still waiting for the dresses.

CHO: That's right.

CHETRY: Thanks, Alina.

CHO: You bet.

CHETRY: Well, it's a wet winter in southern California. A week of storms leaving shaky ground in San Diego. Mud slides and flooding in several counties. The pictures and the forecasts coming up. Also --

Can you just imagine trying to keep yourself above water in frigid, frigid cold. It's an amazing story of survival. This man plunged into what could have been an icy grave. But thanks to a man with a canoe and some brave firefighters, he's telling his story today. We're going to hear it coming up.

Also, two generations of Kennedys come out for Barack Obama. Not everyone in the family is in agreement, though. What are they looking for in a president, and what will be the impact of that endorsement? We're going to be talking live coming up with Congressman Patrick Kennedy.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: My friends, I asked you to join in this historic journey to have the courage to choose change. It's time again for a new generation of leadership. It is time now for Barack Obama.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: That was the announcement that was much sought after by the Democratic presidential candidate. Then it went to Barack Obama. And we saw some signs of tension between the top Democrats running for president. Senator Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama greeting a lot of colleagues yesterday right before the State of the Union, but not each other. Last night, Clinton did shake the hand of Senator Ted Kennedy, even though he is enthusiastically endorsing Barack Obama.

Joining us now, Congressman Patrick Kennedy, Ted Kennedy's son and also one of the Kennedy's supporting Obama this morning. Congressman, thanks for being with us.

REP. PATRICK KENNEDY (D), RHODE ISLAND: You're welcome. Kiran, good morning.

CHETRY: Well, I hope you can see this. I'm just going to hold up a couple of the New York papers. The headline in "The New York Post," "Bamalot. Ted hails Barack." And then, of course, in "The New York Daily News" it says, "Shafted. Ted Kennedy jumps on the Barack bandwagon and kicks his old pals Hill and Bill on the way." Now, we know that the Clintons and the Kennedys have been close and they enjoy a personal relationship. Was that a tough call for your father to decide to endorse Barack Obama?

KENNEDY: Well, it's not about dissing Hillary or Bill. It's about joining in the hope and inspiration that Barack Obama offers this country. This isn't about a personal issue, a friendship. It's about really the direction of the country. We can't be tied down right now by these personal issues. It's about too much of what's at stake in this country right now. And right now, this country is at a cross roads, at a precipice, unlike nearly any other time in our nation's history where we had issues at stake for our future, such as the future of entitlement programs that are going to take enormous consequences of bringing all of America together to solve these issues, issues of international relations which is going to take the necessary --

All of our countries around the world are going to be needing to be at our side in order to solve these problems of international terrorism and global trade. We have to have issues of environmental stability which are going to take multilateral approaches. Barack Obama offers the solution that is the kind of inclusiveness, the kind of hope and inspiration, I think, is the reason why my family felt so strongly. He is the unique person at this time for us to turn to for leadership.

CHETRY: Right.

KENNEDY: Which is the crucial aspect that distinguishes, I think, him from the field of other candidates.

CHETRY: It's interesting, though, because not all of the family is behind Obama. In fact, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Robert F. Kennedy and Kerry Kennedy have all voiced support for Clinton saying that, you know, we're at a time right now where we need steadiness in a shifting landscape. What of the differences within your own family about who would best lead this country?

KENNEDY: Well, first of all, we're all going to be enthusiastically behind the nominee, whoever that is. And I certainly will be with Hillary Clinton should she be or John Edwards should he be. But right now, the reason we all joined yesterday for Barack Obama was that I think you can't measure it in simply experience or resume or policy or politics. It's really that unwritten sixth sense, that ability to inspire people to bring people in the process that Barack Obama has demonstrated the ability to do, just as President Kennedy was able to do.

It is the perfect antidote to George Bush and all that he's been able to do over the last seven years, to alienate people from the political process, drive people away. He has said basically, this is a game for just the politicians and the lobbyists and the special interests.

(CROSSTALK)

CHETRY: Yes. And I want to ask you about that.

KENNEDY: Barack Obama -- and Barack Obama is the perfect antidote to that. He's saying no, politics is for everybody.

CHETRY: Right.

KENNEDY: It's for the average person.

CHETRY: Congressman, let me ask you about that. Because, of course, you couldn't have missed all of the coverage that has been taking place over the past week or so, about the back and forth and some of the comments that were made by both former President Clinton and Hillary Clinton that were construed as getting a little bit nasty when it came to Barack Obama. And in the endorsement, your father said that he wanted to rise above divisions in "the old politics." Is that a swipe at the Clintons as well?

KENNEDY: Well, I think right now, my father has lived through 45 years in the United States Senate, and certainly been at the forefront of history. And for him to have offered him -- the motto (ph) of his endorsement, I think, washes away any skepticism that Barack Obama has not prepared to be president of the United States. So, gone is the day when the Democratic establishment can write off the fact that Barack Obama is not prepared to take that office. My father made it very clear yesterday that the same criticisms were made of John Kennedy by Harry Truman and Eleanor Roosevelt of John Kennedy when he was running in 1960.

And I think it is very apropos that my father made those statements yesterday in lending his support. I think that's the reason why my father's support was so crucial to Barack Obama, especially amongst that core Democratic constituency, which I think is going to be so crucial to Barack Obama in the coming Super Tuesday primaries that are going to be coming up...

CHETRY: OK.

KENNEDY: ... which is going to be crucial because we've seen already. Barack has been very, very successful in bringing independence and additional people to the process now. He, I think, with my father's support, bring in some of those traditional constituencies which together, I think, is going to make a coalition that will be a winning ticket for Democrats in the November election.

CHETRY: Congressman Patrick Kennedy, great to talk to you this morning. Thanks.

KENNEDY: Thank you.

CHETRY: John?

ROBERTS: Coming up on 24 minutes after the hour. Big changes are coming to the San Francisco Zoo. A team of experts has wrapped up its review of the zoo's safety procedures in the wake of a deadly tiger attack. I know what's going to be done differently. That's coming up. And forget apples because a new research shows a drink a day could keep the doctor away. News for your morning workout ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: Welcome back to the "Most News in the Morning." We are tracking extreme weather across parts of the country this morning. Heavy snow is being blamed on a wreck near the town of Payson, Utah. It's about 60 miles south of Salt Lake City. The highway patrol says the storm caused 200 accidents in two counties alone. Look at the size of that pileup.

And more ice and snow in the forecast for Stevenson, Washington. The city has already seen nearly two feet in the past few days. Another foot is expected by tonight. The people there are saying, hey, it's winter. This is nothing new.

And people from two homes in a San Diego neighborhood are back home this morning. They were evacuated after a mud slide. San Diego's Fire Department say about 1,000 cubic feet of soil fell behind one of the homes last night in La Jolla. The mud slide destroyed a 30-foot section of a retaining wall.

Rob Marciano at the weather desk tracking all of the extreme weather for us today. We've got lots of snow out in the Rockies and massive cold coming in to Michigan and the upper plain states, Rob?

ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes, everybody is getting it. You know, everything is always focused on out west, John, for several days there. Now, the focus is shifting a little bit farther to the east. And everybody get into the -- this is a huge storm that is coming together, and it's got multiple facets to it.

On the southwestern side of it, we've got critical fire danger because of dry weather and gusty winds. And, you know, almost already we see problems with that. Damage was maybe some tornadoes ahead of this system and blizzard conditions behind it, and not so much for a tremendous amount of snow. We're not talking about feet of snow here. What we're talking about, you know, few inches and then winds blowing 30, 40, 50 miles an hour at times.

All right. Colorado, you're out of it. Some places here got two feet of snow. Now, it's brushing the plains of Nebraska and Kansas. And we have blizzard warnings that are posted now for western parts of Illinois and eastern parts of Iowa from mostly again, blowing snow. And the winter warning is posted for Milwaukee, Chicago, because of a snow and freezing rain and sleet mixed.

Most of the moisture, though, from Memphis all the way up to parts of Pennsylvania, we do have a freezing rain advisory out for western Pennsylvania and parts of western New York. Minus 44 is what it feels like in Bismarck, minus 41 in Winnipeg. Meanwhile, it feels like 46 in Kansas City. Drastic temperature drop happening today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Kiran, back up to you.

CHETRY: That's not a typo, negative 60 in Regina?

MARCIANO: No. That is not a typo. Not a typo. Minus 60 in Regina up there. That is definitely cold in Regina.

CHETRY: I don't even know if you can go outside. All right. Thanks, Rob.

MARCIANO: See you later.

CHETRY: Well, it's sink or swim for Rudy Giuliani in Florida today. He's been pretty much living in the state over the past months, skipping the earlier contests. What happens if he doesn't win? Well, we're going to ask him coming up.

Also, it's a cruise they will never forget no matter how much they want to. A crew ship full of passengers winds up sick at sea. The details next.

And also why breaking a sweat could help you stay young and fresh, and that's not all. We're paging Dr. Gupta. Hey, Sanjay.

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, forget the Botox. Forget the plastic surgery. I'll teach you why breaking a sweat, like you say, could rejuvenate your body all the way down the level of the cells. Interesting story coming up. Stay with AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN, ANCHOR: It's Tuesday, January 29th. I'm Kiran Chetry. Hey, John.

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN, ANCHOR: Hey, good morning to you, Kiran. I'm John Roberts in this special edition of AMERICAN MORNING. Here's where we are today. We're at Bakeley's Restaurant in Winter Park, Florida. Come on inside. That's just a little bit north of Orlando. The "Big day." This is the headline in the "Orlando Sentinel" newspaper, Tuesday, January 29th.

It is the Florida primary. It doesn't mean a whole lot for the democrats because they moved their primary up earlier than the February 5th cutoff date that was laid down by the democratic national committee. So, they had all of their delegates stripped from them. Half of the delegates were stripped from the republicans but still very important, particularly since this could be a real make or break day for Rudy Giuliani.

He basically shooed the early primaries in Iowa and South Carolina and Michigan and New Hampshire to focus attention here on Florida. He was leading here for a awfully long time. But now he's third in the polls. If he doesn't pull a victory out today, Kiran, it has left in question the entire future of his campaign. We're going to be talking with him, coming up in just a little while. Kiran.

CHETRY: We look forward to hearing from him. Thanks a lot, John. And also President Bush used his last state of the union to call for help from Congress in quickly passing his economic stimulus package. He had some choice words for members of Congress as well over tax increases. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRES. GEORGE W. BUSH, UNITED STATES: If any bill raising taxes reaches my desk, I will veto it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: Joining me right now to discuss the speech is CNN's chief national correspondent John King. Good to see.

JOHN KING, CNN, CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

CHETRY: It's always funny to watch half the chamber stand and clap, and the other half sit there completely poker faced as the President talks about various things.

KING: It's part of the great theater of Washington on that specific line, tax increases, most of the democrats said they want to repeal the Bush tax cuts for wealthy Americans. The President says that's a tax increase on a lot of Americans, if you take that away. Look at this last state of the union address, the President has to do this, layout his agenda. But the President knows full well all of the issues he discussed -- Medicare, social security, tax cuts, immigration. It's all going to wait until after the presidential election. Nothing big with the exception of the stimulus package and some economic things. Nothing big, nothing hard is going to get done until the country knows who the next president is.

CHETRY: It's also interesting to talk about who the next president is going to be. And all eyes focused on Florida right now, especially for the GOP. The war of words continuing between Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani yesterday on the campaign trail. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, I really, one thing, I think we should really give Governor Romney credit for, he is consistent. He has consistently taken both sides on any major issue. He has consistently flip-flopped on every issue.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm afraid that if he became president that some of his conservative ideas would be, you know, just rejected out of hand by Congress.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: How do these attacks on one another resonating among the voters in Florida?

KING: You know, they don't like each other. I don't know if you've noticed that.

CHETRY: It's become very apparent, especially in the debates as well.

KING: This is all about winning a close republican primary. John McCain has won in New Hampshire and South Carolina where independents can vote. This is a state where only republicans can vote. Mitt Romney is saying that John McCain is not a conservative. So, John McCain is firing back saying you can't trust a word Mitt Romney said. He has changed his positions on so many issues.

People say don't like negative attacks but in a very close election, they're statistically tied in the polls. So, if you can move a few people either way, then you can win a very close election. So, people say they don't like it. But it also is proven to have some impact. This is as close as it can get in the state of Florida. It will be fascinating to watch tonight whether Romney can bring out traditional republican conservatives. Or whether McCain can offset that. 1.7 military veterans in the state of Florida. That is McCain's base. He wants to turn them out like he did in the state of South Carolina. It's the most diverse state they've campaigned so far.

CHETRY: Wait a minute, where does this leave Rudy Giuliani where Florida is a must win state for him.

KING: This could be the repudiation of the Giuliani strategy. He has spent $35 million on a presidential campaign. He is 0 for 6 in the early contest so far. He largely sat those out. He essentially said, I'm going to start the game in the fifth or the sixth inning and I'm going to win. But right now, he's running a distant third or even some who think he could come in fourth, behind Mike Huckabee and he says he would go on to super Tuesday. But he has some very tough meetings tomorrow morning in the Giuliani senior staff if he comes in a distant third or even fourth in Florida. He's going to have a hard time explaining his rationale to go on.

CHETRY: Please explain for us what's going on right now with the Florida vote and why, especially for the democrats? These delegates are not going to count.

KING: It's highly technical but essentially they broke the rules. The democratic party rules and the republican party rules say Florida, they can't vote this early. Florida wanted to move up to have a significant influence in the process and it is getting that on the republican side. The democrats, you get no delegates at all so it doesn't count. It's essentially a beauty contest night. It does not count. The republicans will penalize half their delegates. So, they'll only get 57.

In the end, whoever the nominee is, will try to broker a deal and seat those delegates. The question is if Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton go to the convention and neither has a majority of delegates, then there will be a huge fight over whether to seat Florida's delegates because conceivably they would vote for somebody. They would have been lobbied in advance. It's an internal party squabble right now but...

CHETRY: But it would have big effects on the general election as well if no one can campaign there?

KING: Well, by the general election, they will kiss and make up. The question is are democrats offended that their party did no campaign in the primary. By the general election, this will be gone. The key question is, if it's a contested nomination at the convention time, there will be a huge fight over seating the democratic delegates.

CHETRY: All right. Apparently, there are some people, voters that are very fired up in Florida too and possibly talking about changing their affiliations because of this. But it's our "Quick Vote" question, John, and I'd like to see what you think as people weigh in on it. Should these delegates in Florida count? And right now, it really is a runaway 78 percent of people saying yes. 22 percent saying no even though Florida technically, as you said, broke those party rules. Cast your votes cnn.com/am. We'll continue to update the votes throughout the morning.

Great to see you. As always.

KING: Good morning.

CHETRY: Thanks for pulling double duty for us.

KING: Happy to.

CHETRY: John.

ROBERTS: The Federal Reserve, Kiran, is opening a two-day meeting this afternoon to plot their next move on interest rates. Here, with a preview now with the Chicago Board of Trade, is Ali Velshi. They had that massive three-quarters of a percentage point cut the other day. What do they expect to do in the next couple of days, Ali?

ALI VELSHI, CNN, SENIOR BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, by the way, as I promised, things are starting to fill up here. I'm not the only one here at the Chicago Board of Trades. But you got to get to these things early because you remember a week ago when we had that massive cut, it was before markets open. We're not expecting a three quarters basis points cut. This three quarter of a percentage point cut this time, may be half a percentage point and we're expecting at a scheduled time which is tomorrow at 2:15 Eastern time.

Take a look at where rates have been over the past few years. You've seen it been dropping since September. We've seen a few drops by the Fed. Will it be enough? I'll tell you what's going to happen. If the Fed does cut rates between now and 2:15 p.m. Eastern tomorrow, what you'll see is you'll see the prime rate drop immediately. That's automatic. Like the prime is three percentage points higher than the Fed rate. You'll also see fixed rates probably come down. That's why I'm here. That's what they trade here at the Chicago Board of Trades. The things that affect those fixed mortgage rates. You'll probably see the dollar sink further and you'll probably see people start to worry about inflation even more.

You'll notice that gold is at a record high again. That's always a concern. That means that there are people who are worried about inflation. We'll continue to watch all of this for you and we will be here at the Chicago Board of Trade, if and when the Fed cut rates sometime within the next 30 hours or so, John.

ROBERTS: All right. Ali, looking forward to that. Thanks very much. Kiran.

CHETRY: So, you got to see this video to believe it. A Miami cab driver surviving a frightening fall. Police said the driver was speeding and fish tailed just before his taxi plunged 15 feet off of an overpass in Miami. There you see the aftermath. He had some pretty serious injury but is expected to be OK. He is also cited for careless driving and exceeding a safe speed limit.

And sick at sea. A Carnival cruise ship returning to port after a four-day cruise to Cozumel, Mexico. More than 120 passengers and 22 crew members with a Norwalk virus. We've seen this before, terrible stomach ailment that we've seen in some of these crew ships. Norwalk virus often spread through food, water and surfaces. Carnival says it sanitized the whole ship and is working with the CDC to figure out the cause.

We first showed you this dramatic ice rescue that was caught on tape yesterday. Today, the man who survived this terrifying plunge in icy cold water, Jason Dubois is speaking out. He says he was walking across a frozen pond late at night when the ice gave way. He said he screamed for help for several minutes before a man in a canoe and some firefighters came to his rescue.

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JASON DUBOIS, FELL THROUGH ICE INTO LAKE: As the ice started cracking, I started walking faster and I just went under quick. I couldn't feel nothing. I was freezing. My hands are numb. My legs try to keep afloat. I thought I was going to die. So cold. Went to hypothermia and all that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: In fact, he was treated for hypothermia and amazingly he was released from the hospital. And hats off to those brave firefighters. They threw on their cold water gear, John, and jumped in there. Saved his life.

ROBERTS: He is so fortunate because you can go hypothermic in almost a matter of seconds when you're in water that cold. Unbelievable rescue. What incredible pictures.

Did Fema try to suppress information about health risks to hurricane victims who are living in temporary trailers? The new study says yes. We'll tell you how the government allegedly played down the danger. And he says, it all comes down to Florida. Can Rudy Giuliani pull out a win? And will he stay in the race if he can't. We'll ask him ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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ROBERTS: It's 43 minutes after the hour. Today could be judgment day for some of the candidates. Our next guest is counting on a victory in Florida to propel his campaign into super Tuesday. Can he do it? Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani joins us now from sunny Isles Beach in Florida.

Mr. Mayor, good to see you. Glad to finally have you on AMERICAN MORNING.

RUDY GIULIANI (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: How are you? It's been a long, long time.

ROBERTS: I'm very good. Thanks.

GIULIANI: Glad to be with you.

ROBERTS: It's very good to have you here, sir. You said in your campaign plane the other day to a small group voters, you said the winner of Florida will win the nomination. Is today for all of the marbles for you?

GIULIANI: Well, I've been saying that for quite sometime. That wasn't the first time I said it. We focused on this as the kind of gateway to the February 5th primary and we see this as a very important primary and we expect to win it. So, that wasn't the first time I had really said that. I looked at it that way for months.

ROBERTS: Sure, you reiterated, though, but the question is this one for all of the marbles for you? If you don't win here, that's it?

GIULIANI: I would never put it that way, but I would say it's real important. An we want the people of Florida to know how important it is. We had early voting here. We think we did very well in the early voting. But the real objective now is to get out the vote today. We think the vote is there. I believe I've had the campaign as the most relevant to Florida. I'm the only one in favor of the national catastrophe funds which people in Florida need to really help them afford insurance.

I'm the one who has put out the biggest tax package, the biggest tax reduction. I'm the one who's had experience lowering taxes. My opponents haven't. So there are a lot of messages that I think will sound really well here in Florida. You got to get the vote out today.

ROBERTS: Let me ask you about that national catastrophe fund. This is something that is very big for Florida Governor Charlie Crist. You support it, John McCain does not support it. However, Charlie Crist on Saturday threw his lot in with John McCain. How did that hurt you both politically and personally? GIULIANI: Well, look, I surprised by it, but the reality is we have a lot of statewide support here. The attorney general of the state Bill McCallum is my campaign chairman. Bill is a very well known political figure in Florida. He's really put our whole campaign together. We've gotten a lot of endorsements from mayors up and down the state. So, everybody has their share of endorsements and you know, mostly it goes on, your message. I mean, people in Florida are focused on the economy. They are focused on who can help the most in reviving the economy here in Florida. Who can help the most with real estate. And I have the experience in having turned around an economy and I'm the only one who had that experience.

ROBERTS: This national catastrophe fund obviously also important to people in Florida who have lost their insurance after successive hurricanes and tornadoes hit this area. But there are people asking questions across that why should taxpayers across the country fund people who choose to live in harm's way, and isn't this just growing government?

GIULIANI: Well, the reality is it helps the entire country. It can be hurricanes in Florida. It can be hurricanes along the East Coast. It can be earthquakes on the west coast. It can be tornadoes in the middle of the country, ice storms in the north of the country. The idea of a catastrophe fund is for a once-in-a-lifetime catastrophe, there will be a federal backstop so that people can get insurance. And it actually means less money can be spent in a catastrophe.

Remember, when there is a major catastrophe, federal money comes in large numbers. I think its $120, $130 billion has been sent in because of Katrina. So, people all over the country are spending on these catastrophes anyway when they happen. This would end up having a backstop beforehand and would bring in more insurance money. It would bring in more private money, more allocation of risk, but it would just make insurance available, which it is not.

ROBERTS: Mr. Mayor --

GIULIANI: ...for some people.

ROBERTS: What are your favorite topics that you talk about when you are in the campaign trail here is over regulation. When we look at these new numbers about foreclosure filings, Florida is number two in the nation with 165,000. A lot of that because of the sub prime mortgage crisis. Does that not speak to the need for more regulation, particularly when it comes to this idea of this fly-by- night loans?

GIULIANI: Well, you know, what I'm for it is balanced regulation. Not more or less regulation, but sensible regulation. And as far as mortgages or -- mortgage applications are concerned, there should be transparency and there should be an explanation to the borrower of what's actually going on. That's good regulation. That's regulation that moves you in the right direction. When I talk about over regulation, I'm talking about some of the excesses of Sarbanes Oxley that are losing us business, losing us IPOs and business to the United Kingdom or to Japan.

ROBERTS: So, just to be straight, would you favor more regulation in the lending industry?

GIULIANI: I would favor sensible regulation. Meaning things that make mortgages and mortgage applications more understandable to people. I would have to see them. I have to see what they were proposing. But what if what was being proposed was something that would make the terms of a mortgage clearer to someone so they understood what they were getting into, that would be a good thing.

ROBERTS: All right. Mr. Mayor, you also like to talk about your national security credentials in the wake of September 11th, "The New York Times" the other day carried a formerly confidential 1998 police department memo talking about the relocation of the New York City emergency command center to 7 World Trade Center. That memo said "7 World Trade Center is a poor choice for the site of a crucial command center for the top leadership of the city of New York." This was an NYPD memorandum. It was compiled by the intelligence services there. You may have said before that your director of Emergency Management Services was the person who made this decision. Does the buck not stop with you on this point?

GIULIANI: Of course, absolutely. I made that choice. There were pros and cons for all of the sites. Each site had a series of pros, a series of cons. And the reality is, 7 World Trade Center was also the home of the CIA, the Secret Service, it was a logical place to put it for the transfer of information. If there were certain kinds of emergencies. And we had two backup emergency centers as well.

And finally, our emergency center was able to be moved anywhere quickly. It had been made that way in preparation really for the millennium and for Y2K. So we had at least two other possibilities, plus the ability to establish our emergency center anywhere within a half hour to an hour which is what we did on that day.

ROBERTS: Mr. Mayor, thanks very much for joining us this morning. It's good to talk to you. Good luck today. We'll be watching.

GIULIANI: We'll be back.

ROBERTS: All right.

GIULIANI: We'll be back on your show.

ROBERTS: I hope so. I'll hold you to that.

CHETRY: You're welcome any time.

Coming up, why breaking a sweat could help you stay young and fresh. That's not all. We're paging Dr. Gupta about some of the hidden benefits of exercise when AMERICAN MORNING continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) CHETRY: Good news for those who like to go to the gym and perhaps those who like to go to the bar this morning. Research shows that working out can keep you young. We're paging Dr. Gupta. He's not only CNN's chief medical correspondent, he's a columnist for "Time" magazine. And his column this week is also about exercise and how a drink or two can keep actually keep the heart in shape. This has to be a popular read, I'm sure, Sanjay. Work out and drink up. But I'm sure there's a caveat there somewhere.

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN, CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, there are a couple of caveats. But there's a lot of good news as well for people who are trying to take care of their bodies. And it's been interesting. Because we know that having a moderate drinking, you know, a drink or two a day, they can actually have some benefits for the heart. That's pretty well documented. Researchers in Denmark decided to take that a step further. To figure out just how much of a benefit are we really talking about here, and comparing it to exercise, specifically. As you said, I wrote this up for "Time" magazine.

Take a look at some of the numbers here. This is what we really talked about quite a bit in the column - we're trying to break this down into four groups. People who didn't drink or didn't exercise at all, they had the highest risk in developing heart disease. The lowest risk actually went to people who are moderate drinkers and exercisers. And look at the bottom two numbers, I think the most interesting, about 30 percent lower risk for teetotalling exercise, people who did not drink at all but did exercise. But also if you're a couch potato and did moderate drinking, you actually did get a little bit of benefit from that as well, Kiran, which is why again, as you pointed out this might have been a popular read.

But let me point out a couple of caveat that you mentioned. First of all, it really didn't seem to confer any benefit to people under the age of 45. So, really, at the time when you start to develop risk factors for heart disease, that's when the alcohol seemed to play some benefit. Also, moderate drinking again, about a drink or two, a drink a day for women and two drinks per day for men is basically what they talked about, Kiran.

CHETRY: What's going on in your body either when you're drinking or when you're exercising that gives you these heart benefits?

GUPTA: The biggest thing that's going on here is, this is really a crucial point, is what seems to happen is that it raises your level of good cholesterol, HDL. This is sort of the holy grail for a lot of pharmaceutical companies, for a lot of researchers, how do you raise the levels of good cholesterol? It's very hard to do. We know that exercise can do it and we also know that alcohol, again, on smaller amounts, moderate amounts can do it as well. That's the key here. They both do that.

CHETRY: There is also a new study saying that exercise actually slows down the aging process, all the way down to the cellular level. How does that work? GUPTA: Yes. So, again, pretty interesting here. Again, we know exercise is good for you, for all of the reasons we were just talking about. But how much does it really do to you at the cellular level? Well, researchers actually studied groups of twins - 2,400 twins over ten years. One twin exercised more than the other and they tried to figure out what was happening to the body specifically. Now, there's something in your body known as telamirs. People may know what this is but basically it's a strand of DNA that's at the end of our your cells.

Kiran, as you get older, those telamirs get shorter. In fact, some people say they're a very good way to measure age. As those telamirs get shorter as you get older, if you exercise, what they find is that the telamirs actually stop shrinking. So, in fact, you become biologically younger. They found that people who exercise about three hours a week actually is nine years biologically younger as compared to their twins. Kiran.

CHETRY: And that includes just walking, right? Just going for a brisk walk.

GUPTA: Any kind of exercise, about three hours a week as long as you get your heart rate up.

CHETRY: Sounds good. All right. Good news today from Sanjay. Thanks so much.

GUPTA: Thank you.

CHETRY: See you a little later. John.

ROBERTS: Terrific reason to stay active.

Putting his chips on the frontrunner, Florida Governor Charlie Crist is backing Senator John McCain for president. Can McCain pull out a win today in Florida? We'll talk with the governor live. That's coming up on AMERICAN MORNING.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Blue skies, water, palm trees - yes, it's paradise down here in Tampa, Florida, but there's trouble in paradise on the home front. We'll talk about it when AMERICAN MORNING continues.

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