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Looking at Both Party's Strategy Going Forward; Louisiana Results Coming in; Huckabee Wins Kansas; Hurricane Katrina Effects Louisiana Votes; Brokered Conventions Explained

Aired February 09, 2008 - 21:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT: If she does, that's a big caveat there. But he is favored heading into the primaries on Tuesday. The beltway primaries, I like to call it. And if she doesn't do well, he's got the endorsement of the governor in Virginia. If she doesn't do well, that's going to start to be, that will be psychological problem that we were talking about earlier.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN HOST: Is that why he's for additional debates? To put the attention on something else whereas he says he only wants to do two now in the big contest.

JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: The front-runner almost never wants to debate. The candidate behind always likes to debate. That is an immutable law of politics. That suggests she thinks she has something to make up.

The situation she may find herself in, she's betting her entire campaign on Ohio and Texas March 4th. That may be make or break for her. The good news is she's probably in pretty good shape in those two states. But, you know, make or break is a difficult situation, especially if you're riding a string of losses. But I don't want to get too far ahead of the game.

BROWN: Let me take a walk and introduce our back panel yet again.

We'll start with you, Leslie. Follow-up on what we're talking about, the strategy of both campaigns going forward.

LESLIE SANCHEZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Very much, so. I think it's interesting in Kansas. We're again talking about a caucus state. You've only seen Mitt Romney, Governor Romney, and Huckabee do well in those states. If you look at it proportionally, you're talking about less than 20,000 votes, even Iowa had 115,000 votes.

Even though you're saying it's a strong message to John McCain with Huckabee doing well, it is movement conservatives, people who are very engaged in the party, who want to keep the fire on social issues and really keep it on the front burner. That's critical.

RONALD MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: We've been covering this presidential campaign for 14 months. All of a sudden we're saying, OK, you need to get out. We're going to have a nominee, when is this thing going to be over?

The conventions are six months away. Can people in other parts of the country please have a say who the nominees are going to be? I appreciate the fact that North Carolina's sitting out there, people in Mississippi are out there. We have had this campaign every four years where the earlier states did all the deciding and the rest of the country said, hey, we'll take what you guys said.

SANCHEZ: Ronald, that was before you pushed all the primaries forward. Now there's almost 30 states determining the elections.

MARTIN: Yeah, but that's why it's a great year.

UNIDENTIFIED CNN CONTRIBUTOR: And Rowland, Republicans are heartily behind you to have the Democratic nominees fighting each other while they try to coalesce around John McCain and then attack the Democratic nominee.

(CROSSTALK)

MARTIN: That's why Huckabee's still in.

UNIDENTIFIED CNN CONTRIBUTOR: What's interesting about Mike Huckabee, we've been talking about him gaining momentum or at least being able to have that leverage with John McCain potentially as a vice presidential candidate.

There's a danger that if he continues to beat McCain as badly as he did in Kansas among conservatives and Republican voters, that the conservative establishment might start to come down on him, saying this is divisive to the party and self serving. And if you want that shot in 2012...

(CROSSTALK)

MARTIN: No, no, no...

UNIDENTIFIED CNN CONTRIBUTOR: That's precisely what Mitt Romney did at CPAC. I listened to the speech. That's precisely what he did. He was gracious. He bowed out, partly because of the math. But also he might want a second bite of the apple in 2012.

MARTIN: The guy is running for president. He has no job to go back to. It is his right to keep running. And guess what, he's winning? He's winning.

(CROSSTALK)

SANCHEZ: You can't ignore that Huckabee evangelizes voter. He gets them as excited to go to the polls as Barack Obama does on the left. That's what's exciting on the race. Think about the two things he raised tonight in his speech. He was talking about campaign finance rapport. It was an issue that John McCain did not address at the convention. And immigration, a lot of conservatives believe they're too far on the left for those issue. Those things a lot of conservatives need to hear about and get comfortable with before they move forward.

UNIDENTIFIED CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I agree, Leslie, that Huckabee staying in the race keeps McCain have to address these things, stem cell and other areas that Huckabee brought up. Again, there's a point at which it might become a danger to him.

BROWN: I'm going to interrupt for a second. We're going to go to Wolf with some information on Louisiana.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: Thanks, Campbell.

Let's take a look at Louisiana. Right now the polls have closed in Louisiana. These are primaries in Louisiana. They are not caucuses. This is what we can tell you, based on the exit polls that we've been doing in the state of Louisiana throughout the day. On the Democratic side, first of all, we're told by the exit polls that Obama is ahead of Clinton but we're not ready to make a projection at this point. On the Republican side, we're told it is a competitive race right now between Mike Huckabee, John McCain, not so much with Ron Paul, but it is a competitive race between McCain and Huckabee in Louisiana. 47 total delegates at stake in Louisiana; 66 Democratic delegates at stake in Louisiana. The polls are closed now in Louisiana. So we'll see how that goes.

Remember, this is the only primary that is taking place on the Republican and Democratic side tonight. The other states that we've been watching are all caucuses.

Let's go back to Campbell with our analysts -- Campbell?

BROWN: All right, Wolf.

We were talking about Mike Huckabee, a big win in Kansas, and your argument that he has every right to stay in the race. We understand that. But what I think the points everyone else is trying to make is look at the map. It's highly unlikely he could win the nomination. So if you're the Republican Party, don't you want to make use of this time while the two Democrats are fighting it out to go around one candidate?

(CROSSTALK)

MARTIN: That's cute. I've been saying that Mike Huckabee is running -- I've been saying his running mate is Jesus. He believes in miracles. What he's doing is saying, wait a minute, you're saying it's improbable, but it's not -- it may happen. We don't know what's going to happen. He has a right to run. We don't know what's going to happen.

(CROSSTALK)

SANCHEZ: I think we do. I think even if he won...

MARTIN: Does McCain have 1,000? Does he has the delegates?

SANCHEZ: No. If he won every single one moving forward, he would still be hard pressed to be the nominee. That's it.

MARTIN: But hard pressed is not the same as can't do. And when you're a Baptist preacher, you have faith in Jesus. That is what he's riding on.

BROWN: Aren't you, though, surprised by this sort of anger toward John McCain by many conservatives.

UNIDENTIFIED CNN CONTRIBUTOR: No.

SANCHEZ: No. No.

BROWN: It's not that they disagree with him on policy issues. They are adamantly opposed to his nomination.

SANCHEZ: I would think there are movement conservatives who tend to be a lot of radio talk show hosts, even some of them are starting to coalesce around strong leadership, that theme of John McCain, and understanding what a Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton administration would do to this country, especially to small business. And that alone is driving a lot of people to say, you know what? We're going to get behind McCain. You're seeing the endorsements pick up. It has to do with the fact they believe John McCain could win.

UNIDENTIFIED CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Campbell, both political. You've heard the litany, the tobacco deal, McCain-Feingold and on and on, but it's also personal. When John McCain says he wants to reach out a hand in friendship, seems like it's always to Democrats. And when he wants to aim his ire, it always seems to be against the Republican colleagues. Look at the bridge to nowhere he was campaigning on heavily. That was his colleague Ted Stevens from Alaska. But when John McCain picks an enemy, it seems to be within his own ranks. And conservatives...

MARTIN: You know...

UNIDENTIFIED CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Hold on, Martin.

MARTIN: I'll wait.

UNIDENTIFIED CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Conservatives feel like what they have noticed in John McCain as he does that to court the press and court their approval.

MARTIN: Look, conservatives are dealing with the same problem that Democrats had in 1992. They were liberal to aggressive party, they lost three consecutive presidential races and they say, look, we are a changing party.

For the conservatives out there, Ronald Reagan's not coming back. That's not disrespectful, but the reality is it's a changing of the guard. If...

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Let him finish.

MARTIN: The conservatives wanted a conservative choice? Guess what, you had them. Fred Thompson, dropped out; Brownback, dropped out. The party is speaking. The voters are speaking. I'm sure Rush and Laura Ingraham and Sean Hannity, all those said -- but the people going to the polls, they're choosing John McCain. You know what? Get over it. That's who matters most, not conservative talk show hosts.

SANCHEZ: There is a important point to that. If you go back to the Florida primary where the issue of the economy was coming up, we were all talking about the economy. I was out there with the voters. they still went with John McCain. A lot of it had to do with national security. His strength, economic, they trusted him. And that trumped what all the analysts were trying to say. And that's why that message is so strong. That's why people are coalescing around him.

BROWN: OK, guys, we'll come back to you. I promise.

We'll take a break, though. If you're watching at home, check out cnnpolitics.com, a good place to follow everything going on tonight.

And in addition, when we come back, we'll have more from Louisiana coming up after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: So far pretty good night for Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee. Let's take a look at Louisiana. The polls in Louisiana closed only a few moments ago. Right now based on our exit polls, we can only see that Obama is ahead of Clinton, but we're not yet ready to make a projection. On the Republican side, we're seeing a competitive race between Mike Huckabee and John McCain. Mike Huckabee earlier in the day winning the Kansas Republican caucus.

Bill Schneider is looking at the exit polls in Louisiana, watching this unfold for us.

What are we learning from these numbers you're picking up, Bill?

BILL SCHNEIDER, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Wolf, we've got two candidates in each party, two faces of the party, and the division in the party is very tough and very sensitive.

Look at the Republicans. These are Mike Huckabee voters in the Republican Party, 72 percent are born-again or evangelical Christians. Compare that with the John McCain voters over here in the Republican party, they were only 39 percent evangelical Christians. The division in the Republican Party clearly religion.

Now, let's take a look at the Democratic Party. Take a look at Clinton voters. Her voters in the Democratic Party in Louisiana, southern state, of course, 78 percent of them white voters. Now let's take a look at the Obama voters. Again, Louisiana Democrats a southern state, his voters, 70 percent African-American. Two contrasting candidates, two contrasting support. Religion in the Republican Party, race in the Democratic Party, two very difficult and sensitive divisions -- Wolf?

BLITZER: All right, Bill, thank you.

Let's walk over to John King, taking a closer look at Louisiana.

And not only the whole state, but parish by parish. They call them parishes. This is a state with a significant African-American Democratic base out there. And we see that reflected in the turnout.

JOHN KING, CNN HOST: Significant and yet smaller for the saddest of reasons, of course, Katrina. The population of New Orleans is smaller now. So still that electorate driving the Democratic primary. Wolf, that could make a difference, not tonight at much, but down the line in November.

A little history first, then we'll take a look at tonight. Let's go back to 2000. You see the state here. George Bush won it both times. Look at these areas up here. Here's the Democrats. The blue are the Democrats in the general election. You have blue up here and blue up here. Now let's watch and see what happens. That's 2000, now let's fast forward to 2004, George Bush beat John Kerry. These areas still say largely Democratic as long as up here.

Let's fast forward to tonight. The results are starting to come in, Wolf. Stay on the Democrats. Senator Obama getting a tiny percent. Where do you look for the Democrats? Just where we just had up on that map. The Democratic vote will come in this area here, up here, also Democrats up here. We'll watch that as the night goes on. Those are the most Democratic votes. If you want to win, you want them wherever they come from.

Let's zoom in on New Orleans Parish. And let's bring out the city of New Orleans. And let's show you again, this here is one of the sad reasons why turnout will not be as much. This is the Lower Ninth Ward. This is where the levee broke up here. And as you can see, it is still devastated. There are no homes there at all in this area. And that, of course, has been one of the key issues in the campaign. Each of the Democratic candidates saying they have a better plan to bring New Orleans back.

And if you come along the river a little bit more and zoom out, again, sadly people around the country will know just what these are. You see still blue tarps in many of the areas. Up on the roofs of homes that have not been fully repaired since Katrina two years ago. We'll watch this. And we can go from neighborhood to neighborhood as we watch it. But as you can see New Orleans now -- here's the Super Dome in the center of the city. And this is where most of the votes will come from tonight, the parish of New Orleans. We will, of course, watch the entire state as the results come in. We'll turn the map function off. Shrink it back down to size.

The results just slowly starting to come in. Again, most of the Democrats live here, here, and up here, but Senator Obama off to an early start there. The Clinton campaign already saying to us privately they don't expect to win out here tonight, but we'll have to watch the proportions on the Democratic side. We'll Watch the results coming in, if you switch over here, we get the Republican a little bit later.

BLITZER: All right, John. Fascinating material and my heart goes out to the people who are still suffering in New Orleans from Katrina. And there are a lot of people, both of our analysts and reporters, Suzanne Malveaux and Donna Brazile, who know New Orleans, know Louisiana really well.

Let me go to Suzanne first. She's there covering the story for us.

You're from New Orleans originally. And you see those pictures on that Google map of the Lower Ninth Ward, the devastation that still is in effect. Hundreds of thousands of people in the state of Louisiana are still out of that state. Most of them, probably, have no intention of coming back, at least for the foreseeable future. That means the voter base, especially for the Democrats right now, are a lot smaller.

MALVEAUX: It's far from a scientific poll, but I have been speaking with voters as well as my own relatives, many who are still here. And what they are saying is it's really about whether or not they believe that the federal government, the role of the Federal government will ultimately come through for them in the recovery effort. Several of my relatives came first thing early in the morning to the polling stations very much engaged, very excited. Others did not show up, did not feel like it really mattered at this point, still living in trailers and feeling a certain sense of discouragement. So I think that's what you're seeing and that's what you're feeling from people here is a real sense of conflict and emotion over this whether or not it really does make a difference.

A lot of voters listen to Barack Obama when he came two days ago, as did we. They listened to, it was former president Bill Clinton, not Senator Clinton who was here just yesterday, making the case for Gulf Coast recovery. And there's a great deal of frustration still, Wolf, that they're not coming one the kinds of answers that they're looking for. They're not coming up with the details and they're not coming up with new ideas. And there is a certain, perhaps, disbelief, even, a mistrust of the government.

So you've got a lot of people who want to get involved, didn't necessarily come out here. It'll be very interesting to see what voter turnout was.

Obviously Barack Obama's camp is counting on the African-American community. It's nearly half of the population, the Democratic voters.

From this polling station, from what we have seen in the Gentilly area, which also includes the Ninth Ward and that Lower Ninth Ward area, which you saw, the devastating pictures still two and a half years later. Very low turn out here. So I'm curious to see what it will look like statewide when you see the numbers come in and who participated today in the process.

WOLF: Thank you very much. We'll be getting back to you.

Donna Brazile, also from Louisiana. She knows the state very well. We're told based on our exit polls, Donna, that Obama is ahead. But we can't make any projection right now. Give us your lay of the land based on your intimate knowledge of Louisiana, specifically the Democrats in Louisiana.

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Suzanne is accurate. Many of my relatives, when I talked to them, they were still up in the air about whether or not they would vote. Around the mid afternoon, they started receiving phone calls, and I think, at least in the Brazile household, we'll have something like a 75 percent turnout.

Orleans Parish is low today, but in east Baton Rouge -- John mentioned that area, from East Baton Rouge all the way down to St. Tammany, you have strong votes. And there's a referendum on the ballot, I believe, will help spur turnout. Many New Orleans residents are living in Baton Rouge because they have not been able to go back home.

I believe you'll see a significant turnout in the Monroe area near the Mississippi line because there's a mayoral election there. The mayor in that town has endorsed Barack Obama.

But remember, Bill Clinton was there in Louisiana yesterday campaigning with former Senator John (inaudible), who is very popular. They were down in the Lafayette area. That's also a very strong region for Democratic votes, but there was another hurricane that people often forget and that's Hurricane Rita, which was equally as damaging as Katrina, that hurt the southwestern portion of the state. And we should look to see what Democratic turnout is in the southern congressional district tonight.

BLITZER: And is it fair to say, Donna, that given the migration of people from Louisiana who have been forced from their homes, forced to move to Texas, Georgia, or any place else around the country, there are fewer Democrats in the state right now than there were before Katrina?

BRAZILE: Well, I've heard various estimates we've lost about 5 percent of the African-American population. Many of them have migrated upwards there along the river parishes of St. John's, St. Charles, of course. But many of them are still stranded. They still want to go home.

And we need not only resources for coastal restoration, but many people are concerned that some of the public housing units that house so many poor and low-income people have been now moved off the block, so to speak. They would like to see more housing available.

BLITZER: Donna, standby.

Suzanne, standby, as well.

We're getting the first trickle of votes coming in from Louisiana right now. Less than 1 percent of the parishes reporting in Louisiana. Right now Barack Obama with 40 percent, Hillary Clinton 39 percent, a very close contest, but it's only the initial trickle. We're watching it very closely. You can see how close it is with less than 1 percent of the parishes in Louisiana, the precincts reporting.

Remember, you can monitor this parish by parish, precinct by precinct, statewide at cnnpolitics.com. That's the excellent place to go at any time for all of the numbers coming in right now.

We're going to take a quick break. Much more on our coverage from the CNN ELECTION CENTER when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Welcome back to the CNN ELECTION CENTER. I'm Wolf Blitzer reporting.

Louisiana, we're looking at the primaries in Louisiana right now. A trickle of early precincts reporting. So far on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton with 42 percent to Barack Obama's 38 percent. But it's a very, very early trickle of numbers. We'll put up the numbers and show you exactly how many people so far have reported their votes, 2328 for Hillary Clinton, 2153 for Barack Obama. Less than 1 percent of the precincts reporting in Louisiana.

On the Republican side, similarly, very, very early right now less than 1 percent of the vote is in. McCain with 41 percent, Huckabee 28 percent, Ron Paul 4 percent. You can see how small the numbers are, 1,100 or so for McCain, 799 for Huckabee, Ron Paul -- 122 votes for Ron Paul. He's still in race.

In Washington, in Washington state right now we can show you this. Look how close it is, 16 percent of the caucus sites reporting so far, 26 percent for McCain, Huckabee 25 percent, Ron Paul doing relatively well with 16 percent of the vote and 21 percent. We'll show you the delegate equivalents. These are not the actual numbers that have come in, McCain, 802, 782 for Huckabee, 640 for Ron Paul. Ron Paul doing rather well. 16 percent of the precincts in Washington state reporting.

Barack Obama, we projected earlier, has carried Washington state. Barack Obama has carried Nebraska, the caucus there, as well. And Mike Huckabee has carried the Republican caucus in Kansas. That's what we know so far, but there are still contests outstanding.

Campbell Brown has some excellent analyst, the best political team on television watching all of us this -- Campbell?

BROWN: I do, indeed. Wolf, thanks very much.

And no matter what happens tonight, especially for Democrats, there is a long road ahead. And I think viewers keep hearing us talk about a brokered convention.

And, John, why don't you explain what it is and why political junkies are salivating over the thought of one?

KING: On the Democratic side, that's when Al Gore shows up. (LAUGHTER)

A brokered convention is what just what it means. Break the word out, broker -- it means you cut the deal at the convention. It means you show up, nobody has the majority of the delegates necessary to lock up the nomination. You go in -- maybe the person who has the closest to a majority tries to eke it out with those super delegates. You can get Donna Brazile on that one. But you have a vote, nobody wins on the first vote and all bets are off and you cut a deal. People go to back rooms. How many delegates does Gloria have? Well, can I have yours, Jeff? Can I take yours?

MALVEAUX: I've got plenty. You can't have them.

KING: It's one of the reasons that guys like Mitt Romney and John Edwards suspend, don't quit. Because they keep control of their delegates if there's a brokered convention. It's a political correspondent's dream. None of us were alive the last time there was one. You cut deals. You broker a deal.

MALVEAUX: The irony here is that this notion of super delegates.

BROWN: And a super delegate?

MALVEAUX: A super delegate is a party official. It was created in 1982 to kind of restore some order to the process, to give the elected party officials a little bit more power to avoid chaos at a convention. Ironically...

KING: Let the elite control the people.

MALVEAUX: ... let the elite -- ironically...

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: John, we'll get to you on this in a minute.

MALVEAUX: Ironically, it's working in just the opposite way.

And just a couple more things. Obama's interpretation of these super delegates is they are bound to do what the voters in their states tell them to do. Hillary Clinton has a very different interpretation. She says each super delegate is completely independent. You can do whatever you want.

That supplies a problem for John Kerry and Ted Kennedy, for example. Massachusetts went to Hillary. They supported Obama. What do they do?

BROWN: Jeffrey, go for it.

I want to go to Donna, who is one.

TOOBIN: As a legal matter, Hillary Clinton is clearly correct about the obligations of super delegates. They are not bound. They are not bound by how their state voted. The question is politically what are the pressures on them? How do they go back to the voters in their state...

BROWN: And explain it.

TOOBIN: And explain how they voted. That's why, I think -- there are a lot of estimates, including by CNN, about how the super delegates are voting. Take them all with a grain of salt at this point because they are very much free agents. They are very much concerned above all about themselves. And they are not going to commit to doing anything that will hurt them politically. So, I think the pledge delegates is worth watching. The super delegates, I'm very suspicious of any estimate at this point.

BROWN: Donna Brazile is in Washington. She's joining us now. And Donna is a super delegate.

And Donna, we've been hearing that the campaigns are aggressively wooing you guys, are they? What's happening?

BRAZILE: Yes, we get phone calls, practically daily. Not just from the campaigns, but somehow someone has put our names on the Internet. And I got a call from one of my college roommates today, who was lobbying me on behalf of Senator Obama. My neighbors lobbying me on behalf of Senator Clinton.

Of course, I have brothers and sisters who are split as well. I think the vote that I cast on Tuesday is my vote. I vote in the District of Columbia, but the vote I cast as super delegate should be a vote that reflects the will of the people. And by my calculation, we still have about 1100 delegates, pledged delegates outstanding, another 400 or so super delegates. So there's time for us to sort this out before we go to this notion of a brokered convention.

Look, we don't wear capes, we don't drive bat mobiles. And no one wants to see us in spandex. So what makes us super? We get an opportunity to vote at the convention.

BROWN: But Donna, not everybody agrees with you, necessarily or sort of has your philosophy toward it. And isn't it -- given the amount of enthusiasm, the passion, the passion, the enormous voter turnout on the Democratic side, I mean, how ironic would it be that ultimately the nominee might be decided by a bunch of political insiders?

BRAZILE: Well, I hope we don't come down to a bunch of Washington insiders. But remember, super delegates are also activists at the state and local level. They're state party leaders, they're local leaders, they're big city mayors. And they're listening to their constituents. They're being lobbied just like me. Some of them will flip. Some of them will go with the person who wins in their state. Barbara Boxer held out until the people in California voted. So Senator Meryl Andrew, who I talked to tonight, has not committed. So there are a lot of outstanding votes out there. And let's see what happens in the coming weeks.

BROWN: All right, so guys, which campaign is sort of better positioned to take advantage of the super delegates? BORGER: They're all over it. Both campaigns are totally...

BROWN: You don't think the Clintons because of their long history? I mean, they just have a much longer history with the Democratic history generally.

KING: Six months ago that's the right answer. But I think Jeff Toobin, actually, is probably the person with the best answer here. Because before we get to the super delegate question at a convention, we're going to have to deal with Florida and Michigan.

BORGER: Yes.

KING: Their delegates don't count right now because they violated the rules by jumping forward. There's Howard Dean -- if six weeks from now...

BROWN: Right.

KING: ...there's nobody close to a majority, does Howard Dean say Florida, Michigan, hold another contest, hold a caucus. You can't have a primary, it takes too much, it costs too much money? Do you say hold a caucus or do you go to the convention? Their delegates don't count when they arrive. Then the lawyers get involved. This is the old send lawyers, guns, and money. You know, Hillary Clinton will say seat them because she won in both of those states. Obama would say no way, those votes didn't count. And the lawyers would get involved.

BROWN: Well, Jeffrey, go to this, because some of the elected officials in those states are saying they should be seated as the votes were held, and that they shouldn't hold additional causes?

TOOBIN: It is very hard to imagine the Democratic convention with two extremely large and important states...

BROWN: Not participating --

TOOBIN: ...completely unrepresented.

However, you know, one of the thing the Supreme Court has held pretty clearly, although, it's not 100 percent clear, is that political parties make their own rules. So you can't go to court and claim that the parties are -- that the rules are unfair. So it's really going to be up to Howard Dean and the Democratic National Committee and the people who run the party to make some kind of arrangement that is both consistent with the Democratic party rules and fair.

BROWN: Do you see a scenario, though, where they would let the votes in those two states stand given the names...

TOOBIN: I know.

BORGER: No, you know, the irony here is that these folks tried to move up their balloting to get -- to have much more influence in the process. Now Florida and Michigan find themselves out of the process totally. If they had sort of waited in line until Super Tuesday, they would have been all important in determining who gets this nomination. Now they're nowhere. And I wouldn't be surprised if there were some caucuses held, because something has to get done.

KING: Normally when you get to the convention, they have to pay reporters extra to go to the rules committee. It's going to be rushed...

BORGER: It's going to be done before then.

BROWN: All right, we'll end on that note and go over to Wolf and get another check of the numbers. Wolf?

BLITZER: Thank you, Campbell. Let's take a look at Louisiana, the all important state right now. The primary in Louisiana for the Democrats. 1 percent of the precincts have now reported and Obama's ahead 44 percent to 39 percent.

If we show you the actual numbers, the vote count so far, the official vote count 3,504 for Obama, 3,126 for Hillary Clinton. Remember, this is only 1 percent of the precincts reporting.

On the Republican side, similarly, only 1 percent reporting, 40 percent so far for McCain, 29 percent for Huckabee, Ron Paul only 5 percent. Small percentage of precincts. This is the initial trickle. We'll show you the actual numbers that have come in on the Republican side. 1500 so for McCain, 1100 for Huckabee, 186 for Ron Paul.

That's what we know so far in Louisiana. But we're watching it very, very closely. So far, it's been a pretty good night for Barack Obama. He's carried Washington state, he's carried Nebraska. Mike Huckabee has carried Kansas so far tonight. We're watching all of this. Much more of our coverage. Remember, go to cnnpolitics.com. You can watch all the numbers come in in live realtime. State by state, county by county, in Louisiana, parish by parish. Much more of our coverage right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TIME STAMP: 2139:33

BLITZER: Welcome back to the election center. We're watching right now Louisiana. Their primary is underway in Louisiana. The polls close at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, about 40 minutes or so ago.

2 percent of the precincts in Louisiana have now reported. It's a close contest with only 2 percent of the precincts reporting. 49 percent for Obama to 37 percent for Hillary Clinton. But you can see the actual numbers, 5600 or so for Obama, 4200 for Hillary Clinton. We're watching this state very, very closely.

On the Republican side, 2 percent the precincts have reported. 40 percent so far for McCain, 33 percent for Huckabee. And the actual number is 2,000 or so for McCain, 1700 for Huckabee. We're watching this very closely, as well. Washington state, let's take a look at Washington state right now. On the Democratic side, we've already projected that Barack Obama will be the winner. Barack Obama in Washington state with 67 percent so far of the vote. 76 percent of the caucus goers have reported there officially. It's only 32 percent for Hillary Clinton.

On the Republican side, a much closer contest. As you can see, 16 percent of the caucus goers have reported. McCain with 26 percent, Huckabee 25 percent, Ron Paul 21 percent. If we take a look at the -- what we call the delegate equivalence in Washington state on the Republican side, you can see how close it is. These aren't the actual votes. We're trying to drill in and show them to you. These are the equivalents that the caucus goers have come up in their process. 802 for McCain, 782 for Huckabee, Ron Paul with 640.

Remember, 16 percent of the vote is now in. Let's go over to Bill Schneider, our senior political analyst. He's taking a look. I think you're looking at Louisiana, right, Bill?

SCHNEIDER: We're looking at Louisiana Democrats. And the question we're trying to answer is why Obama is leading. Now Louisiana Democrats are about evenly divided between African-American voters from white voters.

Now take a look. This is the vote among African-Americans. Obama 82 percent, Clinton is just getting 18 percent of the African- American vote. Now let's compare that with the white vote among Democrats today in Louisiana. That vote is dominated by Hillary Clinton. She's getting 70 percent, not doing quite as well among whites. Obama's getting about a quarter of the white vote. He's getting a larger share of the white vote than she is getting of the African-American vote.

But it's not all race, it's also class. There's an educational difference. Voters who attended college in Louisiana, these are voters of both races African-Americans and whites, very heavily for Barack Obama. His coalition is not just the racial coalition, but it also includes a lot of well-educated voters of all races.

And finally, one other factor, resources. Obama has a lot of resources, as much in some cases more than Hillary Clinton. He ran television ads in Louisiana. She did not. Take a look at one of these Obama television ads that ran just before the primary.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This election is about the past versus the future. Hard as it may seem, we cannot lose hope because there are people across this great nation who are counting on us, who can't afford another four years without healthcare.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHNEIDER: Sixty-three percent of the voters in Louisiana, the Democratic voters said campaign ads were important to them in deciding how to vote. Take a look at how they voted. They voted 59 to 40 for Obama over Clinton. So his resources, his ability, and willingness to run those ads, she did not run television ads were another factor in why Obama is leading right now in Louisiana. Wolf?

X: All right, Bill, thank you. Obama's also already won so far tonight in Washington state. We've projected he's the winner there, as well as in the Democratic caucuses in Nebraska, as well.

The other winner tonight, Mike Huckabee, we've projected that he is the winner in Kansas. Actually, he is no longer projected. He did win the GOP caucuses in the state of Kansas. So we're waiting to see what happens. Right now, Campbell, the old fashioned way, the actual votes are coming in.

BROWN: It's a good way to do it . Thanks, Wolf.

I just want to follow-up with you guys a little bit on what Bill Schneider was talking about, the racial breakdown. No real surprises there per se, given Louisiana. But there may be coming up in some of the races down the road that we were talking about a little bit earlier, Texas, where Latinos are playing a big role, where Hillary Clinton has dominated so far. But the Obama campaign is trying to make headway.

KING: One quick correction of a mistake I made earlier. I said John Edwards got to keep his delegates. My bad. The Democratic rules don't allow that anymore. So his delegates are free agents.

What we're going forward, Bill Schneider, I think just said that Barack Obama is getting about 25 percent of the white vote in Louisiana.

BROWN: Yes. KING: I think that's about what he got the other day in Georgia when he had an impressive victory there. If he can carry that over to Ohio and to Pennsylvania and get good African-American turnout in Philadelphia and in Cleveland, then Hillary Clinton has a worry there. That is why you made the vote the Latino vote would become critical in Texas.

TOOBIN: But the only part I think worth making, I mean, we've emphasized, of course, that Obama has done very well with the black vote in South Carolina all through the south. He also won Nebraska and Washington tonight.

BROWN: Right.

TOOBIN: States with very small black population.

BORGER: By large margins.

TOOBIN: Yes, two to one in those states. So you know, to get his candidacy as one that's just dominated by black voters is not right as tonight itself illustrates.

KING: But in the bigger primary states. Those are caucuses. I'm not trying to do that at all. TOOBIN: Yes.

KING: He's doing something quite remarkable. But in the bigger primary states, where you had competitive battles, if he can build his share of the white vote, he's in much better standing.

BORGER: But if you look at a state like Ohio, where Hillary Clinton has the support of the governor, the numbers are - there 20 percent of the voters are black in the Democratic party in Ohio. That's a substantial vote if they turn out. And the thing about Barack Obama is that he's getting his voters to the polls so far. Particularly, in caucuses where enthusiastic voters really participate.

BROWN: Let me bring Bill Clinton into this, the role of Bill Clinton.

BORGER: Sure.

BROWN: Because they had to use Bill Clinton to reach out to African-Americans. Are they still, was he able last week when he made, would you call it an apology? Was that...

KING: He made a good will toward...

BROWN: A good will -- yes. Are they still able to use him as effectively as they did before?

KING: He's out in Blacksburg, Virginia tonight. We'll see how she does in Virginia. He is a great asset. He's a fabulous communicator. You know that. The question is as long as he steers clear of controversy. If the campaign is about him, that's not good for her. If he's just spreading her message and it's about -and he's campaigning for her, well then he's the number one surrogate in American politics today.

BORGER: Yes, if you look at the exit polls in primary after primary, Democrats say that they like Bill Clinton, but he wasn't dispositive in how they voted.

BROWN: And we should mention you can watch Bill Clinton live at cnnpolitics.com. He's speaking right now. Go ahead, Jeffrey.

TOOBIN: Well, no, it's just, you know, think we have a tendency to focus on Bill Clinton and usually negatively. And I think he actually has been a tremendous asset for Hillary Clinton, continues to be. And you know, I think will continue to be.

BROWN: I'm going to move to to the back panel for a minute. Sorry, you guys. I didn't want to leave you out, and go back to Republicans. We've been talking a lot about Democrats. But I wanted to follow up something that you all mentioned earlier, which is Mitt Romney, getting out last week, and where we think or you think his vote may have gone.

AMY HOLMES, CNN CONTRIBUTOR Well, I think actually if we look at some of the exit polling data, that it went to Huckabee, which is a bit of a surprise when the whole debate amongst evangelicals was would they accept a Mormon. I think that we saw Romney and Huckabee were splitting that vote. It appears they went over to Huckabee.

LESLIE SANCHEZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I agree also, but also because we're looking at caucuses, which tend to be a lot of mobilized evangelical social based voters that you see traditionally in those states. No doubt you knew when it came to caucuses that Governor Romney and Huckabee were the two that were winning those in larger percentages.

BROWN: Right.

SANCHEZ: McCain has yet to win one. So I think it's more endemic of watching what the next primary's going to hold.

BROWN: And what's the next move for Romney in all of this? Or will he endorse?

ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I think his next move is probably to figure out how can he restock his deplenished bank account, because he spent $35, $40 million.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think he has more.

HOLMES: He did endorse McCain at CPAC. He said for the good of the parties, we're at war.

MARTIN: Right.

HOLMES: We need to rally around John McCain and around his candidacy.

BROWN: But he's not actively or had said he's going to actively campaign for him. Do you see a sort of partnership? Are they going to meet, get together? Predictions?

SANCHEZ: There's no doubt -- you cannot discount the amount of support and organizational structure that Mitt Romney has. It's actually astounding. If anything, that's the one story that wasn't reported as well as it could have been. He has infrastructure in nearly every state. He has built Hispanic business owners, evangelicals, business leaders, you name it. I mean, everybody organizationally - everybody down the list he needed to appeal to. He did. And a lot of them have committed that support. They will follow where he goes. He does have committed delegates to the convention until he releases them. You can't ignore that they were a motivated conservative base.

MARTIN: (INAUDIBLE) right now. Bottom line is you allow McCain to do his thing. You allow him to build his support among conservatives, solidify the nomination, if that is the actually key. And then of course, after the convention, then all of a sudden you bring your resources to bear.

I mean, again, their job is to win the nomination. I mean, that's what their job is. But Campbell, I got to go back to your Democratic point when you talk about some of these things. And I'm glad Jeffrey made the point.

Obama won Idaho, Utah, Montana. I mean, he was wide states. I think when we all of a sudden look at this whole issue like earlier tonight I heard that African-Americans are driving the vote in Louisiana. Whites are making up 50 percent of the state. We made the same mistake in South Carolina, saying blacks make up nearly 50 percent. But guess what? The other 50 is made up of somebody else. So I think we need to -- when we look at - when we sort of talk about this, you cannot leave out white voters as if they don't matter in these states.

BROWN: Last word, Amy. Go ahead.

HOLMES: Just a few words about Washington state, being from Washington state. I'm not sure how significant a win there is either for Huckabee or McCain. It's famously the Republican party. They're famously disorganized. Democratic governor, two Democratic senators. So while this has been an exciting night, I'm not sure how important Washington state is for the Republican party.

SANCHEZ: Right, real quick. Our Latino vote was an important thing. Texas is not California...

MARTIN: No, it's not.

SANCHEZ: ...when you talk about Latino vote. Hillary Clinton got organized labor and senior citizens, establishment Latino voters, but she didn't get young Latinos. They went to Barack Obama. You're going to look at maybe three weeks where she's yet to have a victory, moving into a state that's very independent, open minded, thinking like Texas, that really likes the message of hope. And I think Barack Obama can do much better.

MARTIN: And Texas is not a union state.

BROWN: Yes. We're going to take a quick break. You can follow all of this at cnnpolitics.com. We've got a lot more ahead. We'll have more numbers with Wolf coming up right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TIME STAMP: 2153:35

BLITZER: Welcome back to the CNN election center. We're watching the state of Louisiana right now. And on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are fighting it out. 16 percent of the precincts are now in, in Louisiana. Barack Obama maintains his edge, 54 percent to 37 percent.

Let's take a look at the actual numbers there in Louisiana. 26,700 for Obama, to 18,340 for Hillary Clinton. We're watching this contest very closely.

On the Republican side, 15 percent of the precincts have reported. And Mike Huckabee maintaing his advantage over John McCain, 46 percent for Huckabee, 38 percent for McCain. If you take a look at the actual numbers, 8500 or so for Huckabee, 7,000 for McCain. Huckabee earlier won the Kansas Republican caucuses as well.

But let's take a look at Louisiana with John King a little bit more closely. Those parishes are beginning to come in. They call counties in Louisiana parishes. The light blue, the light blue is Hillary Clinton, the darker blue is Barack Obama.

KING: Right, Wolf, exactly right. And as you just noted, 16 percent of the vote in so far. Senator Obama up about 17 points here. 54 percent, 37 percent. And if you look at the vote that's coming in so far, one point we want to make. This is Orleans parish here. It's about a little more than 10 percent, 11 percent of the state population. We're having been a problem counting the vote there. So it might be a while. We might be late into the evening before we get the vote out or Orleans Parish. It is a 59 percent African-American parish. So based on past elections, one would expect that would be a good Obama territory.

You see Senator Clinton is winning right next door in Jefferson Parish, which is actually a bit bigger, about 10 percent -- a little more than 10 percent of the vote. Senator Clinton early vote coming in there. Just 1 percent winning in neighboring Jefferson Parish. Another place we'll be watching -- Baton Rouge is the state capital. We have no results in from East Baton Rouge Parish as yet. And Shreveport up in the top left of the state also no results in yet.

But look at, Wolf. See the colors. They're splitting. Obama winning more of the parishes of what's in so far at least from the preliminary count. But Senator Clinton picking up --if we looked out at the Washington state map, which I'm sure we will later, he is winning across the board. So Senator Clinton doing better here. And remember, under the Democratic rules that matters because the higher her percentages, the higher proportion of the delegates she will get.

We can switch over. If you wanted to look on the Republican...

BLITZER: Before you do that, let's go back to the Democrats. You mentioned they're having some trouble counting votes. And you hear that and you say what's going on? The Obama people are raising some questions already about some irregularities. What do we know about that?

KING: I know very little about it except that we were told because of those irregularities, they're looking into things because of the problems. I don't want to call them irregularities until we hear more from local officials.

But because of the problems, the vote count is coming in very slow. Officials are looking at it on the scene. We need to find out more about. But obviously, that would be a concern for all of the campaigns because Orleans Parish is critical for the Obama effort. They focused very much on that area.

But for now, let's trust in the local officials. But Louisiana has a reputation for a slow count, number one. And there has been some past elections been some problems. So we will keep a very close eye on that as we go on. But it's a significant chunk of the Democratic primary vote. So...

BLITZER: And that presumably could be a good parish for Barack Obama despite the parish still not - don't have any votes coming in yet. He's doing pretty well so far.

KING: He's doing well. In this parish here, we expect him to do well because of the 59 percent African-American population. And in the statewide count so far as we have it, we're still under 20 percent. But as it comes in, this percentage gap has stayed pretty consistent as the votes have been counted. But in New Orleans, in Baton Rouge, and up in Shreveport, still three significant population centers where we have absolutely nothing. So we need to watch for those to come in.

BLITZER: Let's take a look at the Republican contest in Louisiana right now.

KING : Remember, the very early results had Senator McCain ahead. Now we have Governor Huckabee pulling ahead 46 percent to 37 percent. Both Mitt Romney who is still on the ballot down there and Ron Paul running significantly behind.

But you see that pull-up by Governor Huckabee. Well, let's take a look at where that comes from. He is the peach color on the map. And as you see, he is doing very well across this swath here with the exception of this one county here. Governor Huckabee posting up some impressive numbers here. You know, Senator McCain winning down in the southern part of the state. But Governor Huckabee is doing very well in the Republican areas.

Remember, earlier we said the Democratic - there's a Democratic belt of the state that goes something like this. This central belt of the state here is Republican country. And you can see Governor Huckabee doing quite well in that county. This is more of a swing area. Remember I showed you that it switched back and forth between Gore and Kerry in terms of Bush winning both times. But Al Gore won up that area in 2000. So it'll be interesting to see what happens up in Shreveport.

But Governor Huckabee winning in the areas where a Republican needs to win to rack up the votes there. And worth noting, Wolf, we will watch this contest tonight. Louisiana awards its delegates on a several step process. Senator McCain won in the first step. He carried the day. And Governor Huckabee is carrying the day tonight.

So this is one of those states where our delegate team spends a lot of time looking at the numbers, looking at the rules. It's a several step process. But as of now, about 20 percent of the voting tonight, Governor Huckabee posting a decent lead right now. And the numbers are going up to 22 percent. He's ahead by almost 10 points.

BLITZER: Major win in Kansas. He crushed McCain in Kansas. If he wins in Louisiana, I don't know if it's going to mean much in the long run, but it does show that John McCain could be vulnerable in some of those states.

KING: Exactly right. We'll look at the delegate map later. And I can show you. And when we take a peek later, very, very difficult for Governor Huckabee to catch up. Almost impossible for Governor Huckabee to catch-up to John McCain. If he keeps winning by huge margins, he could keep McCain short of the victory line, but he would have to win by such overwhelming margins, that that is unlikely.

So Wolf, you're right. If he continues to win, it gets embarrassing for John McCain. And the question is, and you asked Governor Huckabee the question. And he said why should I listen to anyone but my own supporters? He says he's in until someone gets to 1,191, which is a majority of the delegates you need for the Republican nomination.

And it's going to increase. If this night continues like this, after the results we've already seen, now Louisiana, if it continues like, this it put a lot of pressure on Senator McCain to prove it when it comes to Maryland and Virginia, especially next week.

BLITZER: And presumably, he could do better there, given the demographics of those states in Maryland and Virginia than he's doing right now in Kansas and maybe Louisiana.

All right, let's take a look at Washington state right now, because this is an important contest as well. We know on the Democratic side, Barack Obama, we've projected, will carry Washington state, a primary there. The Republican contest, though, is interesting as well.

KING: Look at the sweep of the Democratic victory before we move on right now. 87 percent of the vote in. Senator Clinton carrying this county right up here in the central part of the state. That's Douglas County. Very small rural county. Only .6 percent of the population. And Senator Obama so far sweeping across the state. That matters. Senator Clinton will get delegates under the Democratic rules again. They're based on proportion.

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