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President Bush Makes Major Speech on Fifth Anniversary of Iraq War's Beginning

Aired March 19, 2008 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: But is anybody listening, David?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SR. POL. ANALYST: That's a very interesting questions, because attention has been diverted during the year, first to the campaign and then heavily the economy. You know, most Americans are far more worried about the economy today than they are about Iraq. And of course in the last 24 hours or so this explosion of interest in Barack's Obama's speech about race.

But now on the fifth anniversary, all of the candidates, as well as the president, are pausing to focus on Iraq, and I think we're heading into a major debate in Washington in April as General Petraeus comes back.

So, this is a moment when the president can begin to frame the argument in April before General Petraeus gets here. He does have some bragging rights now, as you say. You know, it took Lincoln a long time to find his generals in the Civil War, to find Grant and Sherman and to find the right strategy. President Bush seems to have found the right general for his war in General Petraeus, and now a strategy that is working better.

That does not resolve how we got here. There will be a lot of arguments about how we got here, the mistakes and the costs.

And then the big, big argument is, where do we go from here?

COLLINS: Certainly.

GERGEN: I think all of us will be looking for hints in this speech of whether the president does indeed plan to level of at 140,000 troops this summer and keep it there, or whether he's open to and may plan for further withdrawals before the end of the year.

COLLINS: You know, David, I should quickly let you know, we're probably about a minute away from the president, but I do want to ask you one more question, particularly on the heels of what the foreign minister just said in talking to Kyra Phillips, that he was looking forward to a continued commitment Iraq. We see some of the presidential candidates saying, you know, we'll be pulling out of Iraq as soon as possible. To you, what does "continued commitment" mean?

GERGEN: Well, I think there's a big, big question of whether the president wants to commit the country to making Iraq another South Korea, whether he anticipates -- and John McCain has certainly hinted at this -- whether we might have a permanent -- semipermanent presence there. That would be very controversial.

COLLINS: David, forgive me, but as we expected, the president now -- we're going to wait just a little bit. Go ahead and finish your thought here, and then we'll get to the president when he actually comes to the podium -- go ahead.

GERGEN: OK, the question becomes then whether the president is going to try to negotiate while he's still in office some sort of long-term commitment. The Democrats in Congress will vigorously oppose that. They will insist that that be voted upon by the Congress, and they'll vote it down.

COLLINS: All right. We're going to listen in, David. Thank you so much. Hang on one tiny second.

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: ... members of the military, thank you for your dedicated service. This is a very special day for me, special because my boss, Secretary Bob Gates, is not here today. Secretary Gates is still on presidentially directed travel and he is returning from Russia.

So, Mr. President, I thank you, because therefore I have the distinct privilege and great honor to introduce the president of the United States. As a nation, we are extraordinarily blessed to have a leader in the White House who is dedicated to freedom and liberty for our citizens and for all people around the world. The president has been steadfast and unwavering in this resolve. In the aftermath of 9/11, he said, we will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail. The president has not tired. The president has not faltered. And because of him, we will not fail.

Ladies and gentlemen, the president of the United States and our commander in chief, President George Bush.

(APPLAUSE)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRES. OF THE UNITED STATES: Thank you, all.

Deputy Secretary England, thanks for the introduction. One boss may not be here, but the other one is.

(LAUGHTER)

I appreciate your kind words.

I'm pleased to be back here with the men and women of the Defense Department.

On this day in 2003, the United States began Operation Iraqi Freedom. As the campaign unfolded, tens of thousands of our troops poured across the Iraqi border, to liberate the Iraqi people and remove a regime that threatened free nations.

Five years into this battle, there is an understandable debate over whether the war was worth fighting, whether the fight is worth winning, and whether we can win it.

The answers are clear to me. Removing Saddam Hussein from power was the right decision, and this is a fight America can and must win.

The men and women who crossed into Iraq five years ago removed a tyrant, liberated a country, and rescued millions from unspeakable horrors.

Some of those troops are with us today. And you need to know that the American people are proud of your accomplishment. And so is the commander in chief.

(APPLAUSE)

I appreciate Admiral Mullen, the Joint Chiefs who are here -- thanks for coming -- Secretary Donald Winter of the Navy.

Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte is with us.

Admiral Thad Allen of the Coast Guard is with us.

Ambassador from Iraq is with us.

Mr. Ambassador, we're proud to have you here.

Soldiers, sailors, Marines, airmen and Coast men -- Coast Guardmen, thanks for coming. Thanks for wearing the uniform.

Men and women of the Department of State are here, as well.

Operation Iraqi Freedom was a remarkable display of military effectiveness. Forces from the U.K., Austria, Poland and other allies joined our troops in the initial operations.

As they advanced, our troops fought their way through sandstorms so intense that they blackened the daytime sky. Our troops engaged in pitched battles with Fedayeen Saddam, death squads acting on the orders of Saddam Hussein that obeyed neither the conventions of war, nor the dictates of conscience.

These death squads hid in schools and they hid in hospitals, hoping to draw fire against Iraqi civilians.

They used women and children as human shields. They stopped at nothing in their efforts to prevent us from prevailing. But they couldn't stop the coalition advance.

Aided by the most effective and precise air campaign in history, coalition forces raced across 350 miles of enemy territory, destroying Republican Guard divisions, pushing through the Karbala Gap, capturing Saddam International Airport, and liberating Baghdad in less than one month.

Along the way, our troops added new chapters to the story of American military heroism. During these first weeks of battle, Army Sergeant 1st Class Paul Ray Smith and his troops came under a surprise attack by about 100 Republican Guard forces. Sergeant Smith rallied his men. He led a counterattack, killing as many as 50 enemy soldiers before being fatally wounded.

His actions saved the lives of more than 100 American troops, and earning the Medal of Honor.

Today, in light of the challenges we face in Iraq, some look back at this period as the easy part of the war. Yet, there was nothing easy about it. The liberation of Iraq took incredible skill and amazing courage, and the speed, precision and brilliant execution of the campaign will be studied by military historians for years to come.

What our troops found in Iraq following Saddam's removal was horrifying. They uncovered children's prisons and torture chambers, and rape rooms where Iraqi women were violated in front of their families.

They found videos showing regime thugs mutilating Iraqis deemed disloyal to Saddam. Across the Iraqi countryside they uncovered mass graves of thousands executed by the regime.

Because we acted, Saddam Hussein no longer fills fields with remains of innocent men, women and children.

Because we acted, Saddam's torture chambers and rape rooms and children's prisons have been closed for good.

Because we acted, Saddam's regime is no longer invading its neighbors, or attacking them with chemical weapons and ballistic missiles.

Because we acted, Saddam's regime is no longer paying the families of suicide bombers in the holy land.

Because we acted, Saddam's regime is no longer shooting at American and British aircraft patrolling the no-fly zones and defying the will of the United Nations.

Because we acted, the world is better and the United States of America is safer.

(APPLAUSE)

When the Iraqi regime was removed, it did not lay down its arms and surrender. Instead, former regime elements took off their uniforms and faded into the countryside to fight the emergence of a free Iraq. And then they were joined by foreign terrorists who were seeking to stop the advance of liberty in the Middle East and seeking to establish safe havens from which to plot new attacks across the world.

The battle in Iraq has been longer and harder and more costly than we anticipated, but it is a fight we must win. So our troops have engaged these enemies with courage and determination. And as they battle the terrorists and extremists in Iraq, they have helped the Iraqi people reclaim their nation and helped a young democracy rise from the rubble of Saddam Hussein's tyranny.

Over the past five years we've seen moments of triumph and moments of tragedy. We've watched in admiration as 12 million Iraqis defied the terrorists and went to the polls and chose their leaders in free elections. We watched in horror as Al Qaida beheaded innocent captives and sent suicide bombers to blow up mosques and markets.

These actions show the brutal nature of the enemy in Iraq, and they serve as a grim reminder the terrorists who murder the innocent in the streets of Baghdad want to murder the innocent in the streets of America.

Defeating this enemy in Iraq will make it less likely that we'll face the enemy here at home.

A little over a year ago, the fight in Iraq was faltering. Extremist elements were succeeding in their efforts to plunge Iraq into chaos. They had established safe havens in many parts of the country. They were creating divisions among the Iraqis along sectarian lines.

And their strategy of using violence in Iraq to cause divisions in America was working, as pressures built here in Washington for withdrawal before the job was done.

My administration understood that America could not retreat in the face of terror. And we knew that if we did not act, the violence that had been consuming Iraq would worsen and spread and could eventually reach genocidal levels.

Baghdad could have disintegrated into a contagion of killing and Iraq could have descended into full-blown sectarian warfare.

So we reviewed the strategy and changed course in Iraq; sent reinforcements into the country in a dramatic policy shift that is now known as the surge.

General David Petraeus took command with a new mission: work with the Iraqi forces to protect the Iraqi people, pressure the enemy in the strongholds, and deny the terrorists sanctuary anywhere in the country. And that is precisely what we have done.

In Anbar, Sunni tribal leaders had grown tired of Al Qaida's brutality and started the popular uprising called the Anbar Awakening. To take advantage of this opportunity, we sent 4,000 additional Marines to help these brave Iraqis drive Al Qaida from the province.

As this effort succeeded, it inspired other Iraqis to take up the fight. Soon, similar uprisings began to spread across the country. Today, there are more than 90,000 Concerned Local Citizens who are protecting their communities from the terrorists and insurgents and the extremists. The government in Baghdad has stepped forward with a surge of its own. They've added more than 100,000 new Iraqi soldiers and police during the past year.

These Iraqi troops have fought bravely, and thousands have given their lives in this struggle.

Together, these Americans and Iraqi forces have driven the terrorists from many of the sanctuaries they once held. Now the terrorists have gathered in and around the northern city of Mosul, and Iraqi and American forces are relentlessly pursuing them.

There will be tough fighting in Mosul and areas of northern Iraq in the weeks ahead. But there's no doubt in my mind, because of the courage of our troops and the bravery of the Iraqis, the Al Qaida terrorists in this region will suffer the same fate as Al Qaida suffered elsewhere in Iraq.

As we have fought Al Qaida, coalition and Iraqi forces have also taken the fight to Shia extremist groups, many of them backed and financed and armed by Iran.

A year ago, these groups were on the rise.

Today, they are increasingly isolated, and Iraqis of all faiths are putting their lives on the line to stop these extremists from hijacking their young democracy.

To ensure that military progress in Iraq is quickly followed up with real improvements in daily life, we have doubled the number of provincial reconstruction teams in Iraq.

These teams of civilian experts are serving all Iraqi -- 18 Iraqi provinces and they're helping to strengthen responsible leaders and build up local economies and bring Iraqis together so that reconciliation can happen from the ground up.

They're very effective. They're helping give ordinary Iraqis confidence that by rejecting the extremists and reconciling with one another, they can claim their place in a free Iraq and build better lives for their families.

There's still hard work to be done in Iraq. The gains we've made are fragile and reversible. But on this anniversary, the American people should know that since the surge began, the level of violence is significantly down, civilian deaths are down, sectarian killings are down, attacks on American forces are down. We have captured or killed thousands of extremists in Iraq, including hundreds of key Al Qaida leaders and operatives.

Our men and women in uniform are performing with characteristic honor and valor. The surge is working. And as a return on our success in Iraq, we've begun bringing some of our troops home.

The surge has done more than turn the situation in Iraq around. It has opened the door to a major strategic victory in the broader war on terror.

For the terrorists, Iraq was supposed to be a place where Al Qaida rallied Arab masses to drive America out. Instead, Iraq has become the place where Arabs join with Americans to drive Al Qaida out.

In Iraq, we're witnessing the first large-scale Arab uprising against Osama bin Laden, his grim ideology and his murderous network. And the significance of this development cannot be overstated. The terrorist movement feeds on a sense of inevitability and claims to rise on the tide of history.

The accomplishments of the surge in Iraq are exposing this myth and discrediting the extremists. When Iraqi and American forces finish the job, the effects will reverberate far beyond Iraq's borders.

Osama bin Laden once said, "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will take the strong horse." By defeating Al Qaida in Iraq, we will show the world that Al Qaida is the weak horse.

(APPLAUSE)

We will show that men and women who love liberty can defeat the terrorists.

And we will show that the future of the Middle East does not belong to terror; the future of the Middle East belongs to freedom.

The challenge in this period ahead is to consolidate the gains we have made and seal the extremists' defeat.

We have learned through hard experience what happens when we pull our forces back too fast. The terrorists and extremists step in, they fill vacuums, establish safe havens and use them to spread chaos and carnage.

General Petraeus just warned that too fast a drawdown could result in such an unraveling.

With Al Qaida and insurgents and militia extremists regaining lost ground and increasing violence, men and women of the armed forces having come so far and achieved so much, we're not going to let this happen.

Next month General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker will come to Washington to testify before Congress. I will await their recommendations before making decisions on our troop levels in Iraq.

Any further drawdown will be based on conditions on the ground and the recommendations of our commanders, and they must not jeopardize the hard-fought gains our troops and civilians have made over the past year.

Successes we're seeing in Iraq are undeniable, yet some in Washington still call for retreat. War critics can no longer credibly argue that we're losing in Iraq, so they now argue the war costs too much. In recent months we've heard exaggerated amounts of the costs of this war.

No one would argue that this war has not come at a high cost in lives and treasure. But those costs are necessary when we consider the cost of a strategic victory for our enemies in Iraq.

If we were to allow our enemies to prevail in Iraq, the violence that is now declining would accelerate and Iraq would descend into chaos. Al Qaida would regain its lost sanctuaries and establish new ones, fomenting violence and terror that could spread beyond Iraq's borders with serious consequences for the world's economy.

Out of such chaos in Iraq, the terrorist movement could emerge emboldened, with new recruits, new resources, and an even greater determination to dominate the region and harm America.

An emboldened Al Qaida, with access to Iraq's oil resources, could pursue its ambitions to acquire weapons of mass destruction to attack America and other free nations.

Iran would be emboldened as well, with a renewed determination to develop nuclear weapons and impose its brand of hegemony across the Middle East. Our enemies would see an America -- an American failure in Iraq as evidence of weakness and a lack of resolve.

To allow this to happen would be to ignore the lessons of September the 11th and make it more likely that America would suffer another attack like the one we experienced that day, a day in which 19 armed men with box cutters killed nearly 3,000 people in our -- on our soil -- a day after which in the following of that attack more than a million Americans lost work, lost their jobs.

The terrorists intend even greater harm to our country. And we have no greater responsibility than to defeat our enemies across the world so that they cannot carry out such an attack.

As our coalition fights the enemy in Iraq, we've stayed on the offensive in other fronts on the war on terror. You know, just a few weeks after commencing Operation Iraqi Freedom, U.S. forces captured Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind behind the September the 11th terrorist attacks. We got him in Pakistan.

But at the same time as we launched Operation Iraqi Freedom, coalition forces thousands of miles -- hundreds of miles away launched an assault on the terrorists in the mountains of southern Afghanistan in an operation called Operation Valiant Strike.

Throughout the war on terror, we have brought the enemy -- we have fought the enemy on every single battlefront. And so long as terrorist danger remains, the United States of America will continue to fight the enemy wherever it makes its stand.

(APPLAUSE) We will stay on the offense. But in the long run, defeating the terrorists requires an alternative to their murderous ideology. And there we have another advantage. We've got a singular advantage with our military when it comes to fighting the terrorists and bringing them to justice. And we have another advantage in our strong belief in the transformative power of liberty.

So we're helping the people of Iraq establish a democracy in the heart of the Middle East. A free Iraq will fight terrorists instead of harboring them. A free Iraq will be an example for others of the power of liberty to change the societies and to displace despair with hope.

By spreading the hope of liberty in the Middle East, we will help free societies take root. And when they do, freedom will yield the peace that we all desire.

Our troops on the front lines understand what is at stake. They know that the mission in Iraq has been difficult and has been trying for our nation because they're the ones who have carried out most of the burdens.

They're all volunteers who have stepped forward to defend America in a time of danger. Some of them have gone out of their way to return to the fight.

One of these brave Americans is a Marine gunnery sergeant named William "Spanky" Gibson. In May of 2006 in Ramadi, a terrorist sniper's bullet ripped through his left knee. Doctors then amputated his leg.

After months of difficult rehabilitation, Spanky was not only walking, he was training for triathlons.

Last year at the Escape From Alcatraz Swim, near San Francisco, he met Marine General James Mattis who asked if there was anything he can do for him.

Spanky had just one request: He asked to redeploy to Iraq. Today he's serving in Fallujah, the first full-leg amputee to return to the front lines.

Here's what he says about his decision to return: "The Iraqis are where we were 232 years ago as a nation. Now they're starting a new nation. And that's one of my big reasons for coming back here. I wanted to tell the people of this country that I'm back to help wherever I can."

When Americans like Spanky Gibson serve on our side, the enemy in Iraq doesn't have a chance. We're grateful to all the brave men and women of our military who have served the cause of freedom. You've done the hard work, far from home and far from your loved ones.

We give thanks for all our military families -- who love you and have supported you in this mission. We appreciate the fine civilians from many departments who serve alongside you. Many of you served in Iraq and Afghanistan, and some have been on these fronts several times.

You will never forget the people who fought at your side. You will always remember the comrades who served with you in combat -- did not make the journey home. America remembers them as well.

More than 4,400 men and women have given their lives in the war on terror. We pray for their families. We'll always honor their memory.

The best way we can honor them is by making sure that their sacrifice was not in vain.

Five years ago tonight, I promised the American people that in the struggle ahead we will accept no outcome but victory. Today, standing before men and women who have helped liberate a nation, I reaffirm the commitment.

The battle in Iraq is noble, it is necessary, and it is just. And with your courage, the battle in Iraq will end in victory.

God bless.

(APPLAUSE)

COLLINS: Five years after the war began, President Bush marking the anniversary today from the Pentagon. He spoke of -- many of what he calls successes of the war. He thanked our servicemen and women for the sacrifices that they have made and certainly reminded the American people of the type of government the Iraqi people were dealing with before the United States and coalition forces captured Saddam Hussein.

Let's turn now to our correspondents. Ed Henry, live at the White House. CNN's Barbara Starr at her post in the Pentagon. Our Kyra Phillips on the ground in Baghdad, we're getting to her shortly, and also CNN contributor and former presidential adviser David Gergen. Thanks to you all for being here.

Ed, so, one of the headlines that we're seeing here, and as I asked David Gergen going into this speech, who's listening today?

ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the bottom line is that we once again heard the president five years later bring back that swagger, basically saying we'll fight the enemy wherever it makes a stand, some chest beating about the U.S. military might, the Shock and Awe, invoking 9/11 again as he talks about Iraq, something that his critics, just makes them go -- get very upset and really fire back at this president.

He invoked 9/11 repeatedly about how a failure in Iraq could essentially bring another major terror attack on U.S. soil. And in talking about the U.S. military might in bringing down Saddam, what was interesting is that part has never been in dispute about the U.S. military doing so well, especially at the beginning.

But all through these five years, the part where there has been the dispute has been the mistakes made after Saddam fell. That's why Americans in these polls are so weary and they're wondering what's next. So, the president does have now some success to tout from the surge.

And what we heard yet again was him pleading for more patience, more time from the American people. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Five years into this battle, there's an understandable debate over whether the war was worth fighting, whether the fight is worth winning, and whether we can win it. The answers are clear to me. Removing Saddam Hussein from power was the right decision, and this is a fight America can and must win.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HENRY: Also interesting that at one point, the president acknowledged that this has been, "longer and more costly than anticipated," a severe understatement, obviously. Administration officials at the beginning suggesting that oil revenue would pay for this war. It's now a price tag around $600 billion and counting. So, that was far off.

But also, obviously, much more important than the U.S. budgetary impact has been the fact that nearly 4,000 Americans have lost their lives. But it's clear the president believes that sacrifice is worth it and said he's not going to settle for anything less than victory, Heidi.

COLLINS: All right, CNN's Ed Henry outside the White House this morning. Ed, thank you.

HARRIS: And let's get you to Barbara Starr at the Pentagon. And Barbara, let me pick up on a note that Ed just mentioned from the speech. The war has been -- from the president -- the war has been longer and more costly than anticipated. In talking to your sources, the military there at the Pentagon, is there -- do you hear any idea offered as to how much longer the U.S. military will be in Iraq and at what numbers?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, that is the question on the table, Tony. And, you know, it really goes to the presidential campaign that's underway because, you know, make no mistake, the U.S. military says it stays out of politics, every senior commander, every soldier knows the campaign is underway and that the Democrats have a very different view. Senators Obama and Clinton both calling for a timetable for troop withdrawals.

And the president actually making a bit of a veiled reference to all of that in this speech, again saying that there would be no precipitous withdrawal from Iraq, that he wouldn't want to see troops withdraw if that would risk the security gains that have been made, referencing that General Petraeus is about to make some recommendations about when and if there can be additional troop withdrawals because where are we right now?

Well, the troops that went in for the so-called surge, they're all going to be out by July, and you -- what you're going to see are troop levels back down to where they were pre-surge, if you will, 130,000, 140,000 troops. When will the country take the next step and bring some of those troops back home? That's really the question.

And the president made it very clear again today, he is talking about withdrawing troops when conditions on the ground are such that he believes that there won't be a risk to security. The Democrats have a very different view, and right smack dab in the middle between the two sides are the top military commanders who will still be in place when there is a new president, and what will they have to say about it come January.

HARRIS: That's what I am so interested in hearing more of, the comments from the top military personnel. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon for us. Barbara, thanks.

STARR: Sure.

COLLINS: Let's go ahead and bring in senior political analyst David Gergen to the discussion. Quickly, David, you know, we just heard that excerpt from President Bush's speech talking about the war and saying that absolutely, yes, these were the right decisions made five years ago and that America can and must win this war.

One of the presidential candidates, Hillary Rodham Clinton, said something very different just two days ago. Let's listen for a moment.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Despite the evidence, President Bush is determined to continue his failed policy in Iraq until he leaves office. And Senator McCain will gladly accept the torch and stay the course, keeping troops in Iraq for up to 100 years if necessary. They both want to keep us tied to another country's civil war, a war we cannot win. And that in a nutshell, is the Bush-McCain Iraq policy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: So, David, Hillary Clinton says it's a war we cannot win. The president says it's absolutely a war we can win. If you're the American sitting at home watching this and all of this and this presidential election coming up in a few months, what do you do? Who's right?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you know, each side has some points in their favor. President Bush can certainly argue, as he did today, that the surge has brought down the number of U.S. fatalities and that things are safer and more secure in Baghdad where most of our troops on the surge are. And, you know, this is the first time the president has had strong grounds to make such claims, and he took advantage of that today. And yet at the same time, his critics like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who's speaking later today on this subject, can argue, well, listen, we're down -- you know, the number of fatalities in Iraq, Iraq fatalities are really only down to about where they were two years ago. Yes, we've headed off the worst, but it stabilized at very, very high levels.

And more than that, the whole purpose of the surge when it was announced was to give the Iraqi government and the Iraqi people a time, breathing space, if you would, to develop a self-sufficiency. And the president didn't talk about that at all today. He didn't talk about where do we go from here with the Iraqi government, how soon can we turn this over? He really spoke almost as if America's going to win this. We're not going to win this on our own.

So, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have, I think, some points on their side on that, saying, wait a minute, this is -- the surge may have brought levels of violence down, but who's actually going to win this in the end? Are we going to have to stay here indefinitely? After all, we're entering the sixth year.

COLLINS: Well, well, that's exactly right. It seems like on a day like this when we are marking this anniversary, if you will, of five years of fighting in Iraq, what about history? I mean, I'm fascinated to think about how history will write this. I know it's a tough question now. But how will they write this war? How will they write the decisions of President Bush?

GERGEN: Well, you know, Heidi, history is written by the winners. And we don't have a final resolution on this yet. I must say, from George W. Bush's standpoint, you know, it looked like a very disastrous war for a long time. It looks modestly better now. It does have a better sheen to it. But where it's going to come out, where the Middle East is going to come out, whether this young democracy, given the fragility that he himself acknowledges, whether this is going to work.

You know, if you talk -- your own CNN's Michael Ware, who's there on the ground in Baghdad has been arguing for some time now it's a little safer, but this is -- we've now got Sunni people all armed up and against the Shias, and we've got Shias armed up against the Sunnis. And we're arming both sides, and we're leaving or we're creating a country that is badly divided. It's not a stable democracy, it's not a functioning democracy.

So, I think history is going to be very, very rough on the Bush administration for how we got into this war and how the war was conducted. On the final outcome, I think that chapter, that chapter has yet to be written, but ...

COLLINS: Certainly.

GERGEN: ...this still could go either way.

COLLINS: Yes, absolutely. All right, senior political analyst David Gergen, always nice to talk with you.

GERGEN: Thank you.

COLLINS: Thanks, David.

HARRIS: Let's get to Baghdad now and CNN's Kyra Phillips. Kyra, the surge was designed to give, as David Gergen mentioned just a moment ago, some breathing space for a, the Iraqi people from all the violence and, b, for the Iraqi government to become a solid functioning democracy. You talked to the foreign minister a short time ago. I'm just sort of curious as to the state of play for the Iraqi government right now.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, you know what I'm hearing bottom line, Tony, is that nobody wants to commit to any sort of timeline. You heard what David Gergen said, the president is not committing to a time line. He continually talks about the U.S. winning this war, but what about the Iraqis? What about the Iraqi army, the Iraqi police, the Iraqi government? When exactly with will the Iraqis take over this country and secure this country? Is that even possible? Are they even close to being able to do that? If you talk to Iraqis on the ground, they say, no, U.S. troops can't leave; we need them. If you listen to the president right now, you heard it right there, or you didn't hear it, he did not commit to a timeline.

So, five years into this war, what is going to happen to this country? I can tell you one thing, the next U.S. president that steps into office is going to inherit a very controversial war, and hopefully he or she will have some sort of answer to how the outcome is going to be.

Now when I talked to the Iraqi foreign minister, I asked him this exact question -- if troops were to leave tomorrow, a month from now, a couple of months from now, where would you be? And he basically said we'd be in big trouble. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: If U.S. troops were to leave tomorrow, next month, three months from you, would you be in trouble?

HOSHYAR ZEBARI, IRAQI FOREIGN MINISTER: We will be in trouble because we are still not ready. Still our forces haven't reached the level of preparedness or readiness to be self reliant. Our borders are open. We've seen some incursions recently by our neighbors into our territories. So, imagine that entire force is not here, everybody would be interested, and Iraq would be a failed state. And because of new (ph) political position, a strategic position and its location with the oil resources of the war and so on, and for the stability of the Middle East, of the region, it's a very important country. And no U.S. administration would afford really to see this country fail.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Something else, Tony, that I can tell you as I look through my notes and listened to the president's entire speech, he didn't talk about the corruption. And if you talk to professors at Baghdad University, if you talk to leaders within the government, if you talk to the Iraqi people, even if you talk to members of the police force that haven't been arrested for corruption, what do they talk about? Corruption. Corruption is everywhere in this country. Some will say it's even worse than the terrorist activity. So, until you deal with that and the terrorism, there is no way that this country can get itself in order.

HARRIS: Yes. Kyra, I'm going to leave it where there with you. We'll talk to you again next hour. But I really want an answer to this question based on the interviews you've been conducting there over the years, actually. I want to know how long, how much longer? I understand that the foreign minister is saying you can't leave now, but when will the country get its act together? But we'll talk about that next hour. Thanks, Kyra.

COLLINS: Well, it looks like it could be a road to nowhere now. Yes, I guess so. Flooding takes a big bite out of the Midwest.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(WEATHER REPORT)

HARRIS: A little boy, a big paper-airplane collection.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This one is an airplane. It's a helicopter.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He doesn't quite understand yet, you know, whereabouts these airplanes are coming from. He's going to really have some stories to tell.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: One million and counting.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLLINS: Some news just coming into the CNN NEWSROOM now. Fredricka Whitfield is working on the story for us.

Some sort of oil fire in Tennessee, Fred. What do we know?

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Right, in a place called Oliver Springs. Somehow workers were drilling in an oil well and somehow fire erupted. You're looking at these pretty dramatic images right here, a pretty sizable fire. It's unclear exactly how they're going to be able to put it out, when it might be contained.

Miraculously, even based on the pictures you're seeing, there's only one report of a minor injury. Meantime, there is a creek nearby they want to try to protect, make sure there isn't oil seepage into it, so they've got booms in place at the Wrights (ph) Creek. There have not been any mandatory evacuations that have been put into place as of yet. But you can see these planes are pretty significant, as are the plumes of smoke. And so all the officials that need to be on the ground there are, indeed, trying to contain the situation. Of course, when we get more information on it, we'll bring it to you.

COLLINS: OK, Fred, great. Wow, yes, look at those flames. OK, we'll keep our eye on that one. Thank you.

(BUSINESS HEADLINES)

COLLINS: Hillary Clinton and her plan to fix the economy, what she would do on day one to ease your concerns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLLINS: Welcome back to the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Heidi Collins. The rush is on -- water runs wild in the Midwest. Serious flooding to tell you about.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARRIS: And good morning again, everyone. You're with CNN. I'm Tony Harris.

COLLINS: Hi there, everybody. I'm Heidi Collins. Developments keep coming into the CNN NEWSROOM on this Wednesday, the 19th day of March. Here's what's on the rundown. A rush of high water -- widespread flooding sends hundreds of families scrambling for higher ground in the Midwest.

HARRIS: Five years after the invasion, President Bush saying moments ago the way is clear for victory in Iraq.

COLLINS: Hillary Clinton pressing for a revote in Michigan. Is Barack Obama standing in the way? Angling for a delegate advantage in the NEWSROOM.

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