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This Week in Politics

Recounting the Week's Political Events

Aired March 30, 2008 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TOM FOREMAN, CNN, HOST (voice-over): And we begin yet another round.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He would have not been my pastor.

FOREMAN: Both fighters are tired, still trying for a knock out blow.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: She hasn't released her income tax returns.

MAYOR FAMRON BRADSHAW (D), CHESAPEAKE, WEST VIRGINIA: What I have to say instead of what he said is god bless America.

FOREMAN: They are bobbing, weaving.

CLINTON: I remember landing under sniper fire.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We landed without incident, sauntered off the plan.

CLINTON: So, I made a mistake. That happens. That means I'm human.

FOREMAN: But a lot of hard punches are landing. When is the time to throw in the towel?

BILL CLINTON, FMR. PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: My family is not big on quitting. You probably noticed that.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FOREMAN: Will the Democrats beat each other senseless before even landing a punch on John McCain? We'll have the blow by blow on a very tough week in politics after a look at what's in the news right now.

(NEWSBREAK)

FOREMAN: Maybe you thought that the Democrats were getting tired. Maybe you thought they were all punched out, well, think again. "This Week in Politics" the hay makers were flying as both presidential contenders their fighting form. Clearly, some down time did not put Barack Obama off his game.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If I have the American people behind me, then I fear no man and I fear no woman.

FOREMAN (voice-over): And the woman in question is not backing down either.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now I know that there are some in Washington and there are some in the media who want this race to be over. Well, I disagree.

FOREMAN: Bill Clinton may think it's all just good smash mouth politics.

BILL CLINTON: Let's just saddle up and have an argument, what's the matter with that?

FOREMAN: But to a lot of Democrats, this is beginning to feel like a bad dream.

TED KENNEDY: The hope still lives and the dream shall never die.

FOREMAN: For the party, it was a nightmare.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I thank you for the nomination that you have offered me.

FOREMAN: The 1980 Democratic convention in New York City, President Jimmy Carter had the delegates, but Ted Kennedy simply would not quit. In the end, Carter was left looking like a loser and went down to a landslide defeat against Ronald Reagan. Not everything in 2008 is a repeat of 1980, for one thing, Ted Kennedy is supporting the leader this time, and for another, Hillary Clinton is not completely out of the running. Not completely.

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS: There are increasing number of voices these days continue to point out the math. Hillary Clinton is behind on delegates, states won and the raw vote.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC: How do you end it if the Clintons believe they should not quit until the last dog dies?

JACK TAPPER, ABC NEWS: The Tonya Harding option, and the idea that Clinton can't win the gold medal on her own so she has to kneecap her leading competitor.

FOREMAN: Both sides are looking for the knockout punch.

GEN. MERRILL "TONY" MCPEAK, U.S. AIR FORCE (RET.): I am saddened to see a president employee these kind of tactics.

FOREMAN: One of Barack Obama's supporters slams Bill Clinton for questioning the senator's patriotism.

MAYOR FAMRON BRADSHAW (D), CHESAPEAKE, WEST VIRGINIA: I am not Jeremiah Wright, but I am an ordained minister and a pastor and what I have to say instead of what he said is god bless America!

FOREMAN: A Hillary Clinton fan takes a jab at Barack Obama's pastor. Like any good fight, it is getting deeply emotional. More and more Democrats say they will vote for John McCain if their contender is not the one left standing. And this is what keeps the Democrats up at night. [ screaming ]

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FOREMAN: Here to help me psychoanalyze the Democrats' bad dreams CNN congressional correspondent Jessica Yellin, reporting from the CNN "Election Express" in Philadelphia, the city of brotherly love. And with me in the city without pity, Washington, D.C., is Stephanie Cutter who knows Democratic in-fighting from her time as spokeswoman for the John Kerry campaign.

Stephanie, let me talk with you. Whether or not this hurts the Democrats in the long run, does it trouble you to see the kind of bitter fighting you see between these two candidates?

STEPHANIE CUTTER, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I think that things are getting a little, you know, overblown in terms of the bitter fighting. For the most part this week, these two candidates were either talking about Iraq or the economy or challenging John McCain for not knowing anything about the economy and that's just good politics. There have been jabs back and forth and personal attacks and things like that --

FOREMAN: Yes, but it appears that the Democrats are having discussions about race and gender baiting. Good heavens. The Democrats should be the party that we would never have had that discussion.

CUTTER: A year and a half into this campaign and emotions are running pretty high, where you know, 30 to 60 days to bringing this to an end, things are getting a little tense. You know, Howard Dean sent a message to both candidates that they've got to tone it down a little bit. I think that with the polling that came out this past week and the negatives of each of these candidates going up a little bit. They're probably taking note that they need to start talking about the issues more and stop, you know, the personal attacks that we've seen.

FOREMAN: You say 30 to 60 days from the end of the race. Jessica, does the Clinton camp believe it is more like 30 or more like 60?

JESSICA YELLIN, CNN, CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: They are looking at August. They are thinking of the convention. Look, they want to fight on and Hillary Clinton thinks that she has way to win this thing, and the only way that she can do sit is by fighting a very bruising battle. And you are right, Tom, there are a number of party leaders who are deeply concerned about this, are starting to worry whether this divides the party, but in the end, a lot of the folks who are speaking out the most tend to be those who favor Barack Obama. I am not talking about Dean, but I'm talking about Senators Dodd and Leahy who have come out for Barack Obama. They're the ones who are saying this thing should end soon and you know those folks who are in the middle or the Clinton supporters who still think this is a legitimate primary fight and let's see what happens.

FOREMAN: Stephanie, what is the good thing about the Democrats letting it go on?

CUTTER: Well, there's a lot of good things. I mean, for the first time ever we have four million registered voters in Pennsylvania. We're going to have organizations on the ground in all 50 states by the time this is over. You know, we've got an energized Democratic party. We've raised hundreds of millions of dollars. We're ready to take on John McCain. You know, on the flipside, they are just getting started on the Republican side and organizing and raising money, and we are giving them a little bit of a gift, in that they can to make up the gap.

FOREMAN: Yes, but the Republicans have always been very good at that stuff.

CUTTER: Well, you know, they are starting, and we've never been as good as this year. So, you know, they've got a huge gap to make up.

FOREMAN: So you think that the momentum, the excitement about is good and you can build on that?

CUTTER: Oh, absolutely.

FOREMAN: Let's take a look at come numbers here real quickly. These are some polls that indicate the favorability ratings. Barack Obama first, I want you to look at this. His favorability rating right now is about 62%. His unfavorable rating is about 33%, but look at Hillary Clinton. Her numbers are 53% favorable and 44% unfavorable.

Jessica, this has been very bad news for her in the sense that every time she tries to attack Barack Obama, it seems like it hurts her, too.

YELLIN: You're right. It builds on her negatives and what's been fascinating about those numbers is her negatives have increased during that Jeremiah Wright controversy, during the very time where you think that Barack Obama might have suffered a decline in his popularity, Senator Clinton seems to be taking the blame for the overall negative tone of the race. So this is a problem for her and whether this is necessarily fatal is unknown, because it is possible that people already think of her as slightly negative, slightly polarizing and willing to accept that in here because they see her as a tough fighter of a politician.

So the campaign is not convinced that this is necessarily, you know, a fatal thing for Clinton, but certainly not very good, because when she goes on the attack, her negatives spike up.

FOREMAN: Stephanie, she is behind in everything. She is behind in the states won. She's behind the popular vote. She's behind in the delegates. Is there any way that she can take the lead before this is over or can she just draw close enough to try to make the superdelegates hand it to her?

CUTTER: Well, I think their strategy is to get close enough within 100 pledge delegates so that the superdelegates feel like they have a real choice. I think that her path is getting more and more narrow. FOREMAN: Will the Democratic party, will the rank and file of the Democratic party accept it though if she wins that way. She doesn't get the numbers, will the accept it or will they say that no, this is Al Gore all over again.

CUTTER: Yes.

FOREMAN: And the party can't accept it?

CUTTER: Well, I think that it is becoming very difficult for her to find a path to victory here. Something dramatic is going to have to change the dynamic in this race and if that dynamic thing is a negative attack on Barack Obama, that brings him down, you know, that is a nomination that may not be worth having.

FOREMAN: Last question, really quickly, to you Jessica, to what degree are the Clinton supporters preparing themselves for the idea that they must become Obama supporters in the future if he wins?

YELLIN: You don't hear it from a lot of the active Clintonese at this point, but you hear a lot of anger and a lot of the bitterness that we're seeing, you know, I'm not going to vote for that guy if he wins. But let me say at this point, Tom, it seems that once we start seeing the Democratic party run attack ads about John McCain saying he wants to stay in Iraq for 100 years, expect all that to change. If Obama becomes the nominee, expect a lot of these Clintonese go over to Obama.

FOREMAN: Yes, nothing makes good friends like a good common enemy. Thanks, Stephanie. Thanks, Jessica. We will have much more on "This Week in Politics." When was the last good convention floor fight? Where can you see a political striptease, no kidding. And what is the x-factor that could cost John McCain the election? Here is a hint -- you can see it in this picture. Think about that.

And while you do, before we go, let's take a look at another picture here. This is in trade where real gamblers bet real money on the presidential race and as you can see, John McCain has been rising sharply, getting closer and closer to Barack Obama. He is the green line. McCain is the pink line and Hillary Clinton way down and why is all of that? Well, it may have something to do with the Republican's secret plan to K.O. either competitor which won't be so secret when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: If you hadn't slept through that art appreciation class in college, you might recognize this painting, "Stag at Sharky's," George Bellow's classic depiction of two fighters determined to destroy each other. Steve Broadner's cartoon in a recent "New Yorker" gives it a whole new meaning. Now, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are beating each other into exhaustion and over in the corner the old hustler John McCain is just grinning.

So is the Democratic grudge match really going to give the White House to the GOP? Joining me from New York, Mark Halperin, the editor of the Page "Time" Magazine's political column and with me in Washington, a veteran political brawler CNN contributor Bill Bennett. Bill, let me start with you, what will the Republicans do to hit the Democrats hard the minute they get a nominee?

BILL BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I would like Brooklyn Brawler if you don't mind.

FOREMAN: Brooklyn brawler. OK.

BENNETT: I'm the connection. I have been to about three fights in Vegas, big time fights and each fight John McCain was there. He is a big fight fan so your analogy is very close. I don't think there is a knockout punch, Tom. I think this is a 12-15-round bout. Right now, the Democrats are having trouble, but it will settle down. And I suspect once we get a nominee and lord knows when that will be. I wait to hear that from Mark, then I think the party will close in behind. It looks like a very close race, no matter what. I don't think a knockout punch.

FOREMAN: Mark, do you agree with that, no knockout punch here, but the Republicans will come on strong?

MARK HALPERIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE: I think in all likelihood, a very close race, 51-49, if not in actual percentages and sort of the sensibility we should have it. I think the Republican nominee John McCain will run largely the same way against these two Democrats which ever one is nominated. If Obama is nominated, experience will be a factor, but somewhat counter intuitively, either way, I think the issues he will run on primarily as a contrast are the war in Iraq and national security and the economy. Two issues on which President Bush's unpopularity are really bleeding over on to John McCain and yet I think those are the ones he will emphasize.

FOREMAN: I want to take a look at the graphic and these are some ideas at salon.com was forwarding here. This is how John McCain, the GOP, would run against Barack Obama. Define him for the voters as dangerously inexperienced and unacceptably liberal, the surrogates will hit very hard on these scare issues like the Reverend Wright's speeches and they would dig for dirt in the past.

On Hillary Clinton's side, a somewhat different equation, they would go after her on the idea that she can't be trusted, that she is ruthless, that she is not truthful and remind the voters about all of the past scandals and accuse her of stealing the nomination. Is this, do you think, Bill, a fair outline of what the attack may be, will that come from McCain or from surrogates?

BENNETT: Well, that's a very important distinction because I think McCain will not use certain kinds of words. I don't think you'll see him use the words liberal a lot. And I don't think you'll see him overly politicizing if I can use that term, the race. But I think he will talk about his own credentials and bear in mind on his credentials, some of them are impeccable when it comes to national security, when it comes to patriotism and thinking here of the Obama contest. There's no question about McCain. The integrity issues, I don't think he's going to raise, again, because of his closeness to his colleagues in the Senate.

FOREMAN: What about surrogates though?

BENNETT: He wouldn't do it, but there will be, will see in a lot of the elections outside players playing a huge role.

FOREMAN: Well, there's this thing called the web and there's this thing called Talk Radio and there will be tons of it, and it's out there already. We can see it already. McCain's problem, of course, here's where weakness becomes strength is that he is still not embraced by the conservative community fully and some probably won't all the way until the end. That weakness now becomes a strength, because as you have seen, there are a lot of moderates, a lot of independents and a number Democrats who said that they will vote for McCain. I don't suspect as many will as they are saying, but I think more than usual. John McCain is the best experienced candidate of the field we had to pick up on Democrat disaffection.

FOREMAN: Mark, when you look at this attack coming from the outside, it has been a bigger role in the past few elections than these interest groups and not the candidates themselves, but people connected to them or in favor of them come to the floor. The Democrats keep saying brace yourself for all of the vicious Republican attacks that are to come, do you believe they will come, and if so, from where?

HALPERIN: Well, first of all, no conflict makes for good TV, but I agree with everything that Bill just said. I want to go on record there so I can get partial credit for it.

BENNETT: Good. You don't want to take on the Brooklyn brawler.

HALPERIN: I don't --

FOREMAN: who does.

HALPERIN: I just get supplicate. Look, the attacks are going to come and that's the nature of the environment in which our political media world exists. I call it, I had a book called "The Freak Show" and they're going to come after Obama and Clinton. There is a difference between Obama and Clinton. The Clinton camp says that the freak show attacks is going to come as they came at Dukakis, as they came at Gore, as they came in Kerry and Clinton has been through this and know how to do it. And that winning in the freak show environment is makes her and her ability to win a stronger candidate.

Obama wrote in the book and has talked and said, look, I know they're going to come with tough attacks and I will fight back, but his camp's view is that this is a different election. This is not a tactical election or election about small things, but the election about the war, this is an election about the economy; and Rush Limbaugh and Matt Drudge can do what they'll do, but that's not where the discussion is going to be.

Now, if you are a Democrat, you kind of choose between the two candidates, I think one important consideration of electability is what matters to you is which of those two schools of thought is right, particularly, because as Bill points out, John McCain is not likely to engage in a lot of the stuff himself, but believe me, he has got people working for him, and with him who will engage in it, and again, I think if you are a Democrat, a superdelegate or a voter, you have to say, which school of thought about this election is right, the Obama school or the Clinton school?

FOREMAN: Bill, we've seen a lot of punches thrown in the fight at this point, and now having seen how the two Democrats react to it, and now, who would you rather see the Republican run against? Obama or Clinton?

BENNETT: Well, Hillary Clinton is weakened now to a degree that if she could somehow manage to pull this off, I think it would be easier to run against her and easier, not easy. But they're both formidable candidates. I agree with Mark. Let me say this, it's interesting, Democrats are saying look out, look out for McCain and look out for the Republican attack machine.

In the meantime, this guy is getting kneecapped from behind by his own crowd here, his own party, not his own people, but I mean, what do Republicans have to offer that Democrats haven't already put on Obama's back? I don't know. Maybe there are things. The other thing is, yes, surrogates will say things and people close to McCain will say things, but John McCain will have this way of separating himself from it and saying, no, I don't approve that. We saw that in Cincinnati with that talk show host. And you will see a lot of this from John McCain.

I agree, very important what Mark said, I think this election is on big things and John McCain will say that the biggest thing of all is the war and the war against terror.

FOREMAN: And the last word goes to you, Mark, very quickly. Can John McCain successfully separate himself from the President, because he stood fairly far apart from him on the issues but the Democrats keep saying this is more years of Bush?

HALPERIN: I think it's going to be very interesting. On some issues like the war and the economy where the president is so unpopular, I don't think McCain will separate himself that much, it's on the other issues, the laundry list of issues that have alienated so many conservatives, the environment and in some cases, taxes, torture, international relations beyond the war in terror and the war in Iraq. There's a laundry list of things like campaign finance where McCain has crossed the party and I think he is a strong general election candidate, as Bill suggested, at the top because he has the appeal to independents on those issues. I think John McCain is going -- he won't lose because he does not sufficiently do this bounce. I think he will do the bounce and separate on some ways but continuity on others, on big issues, where the Republicans have won a lot of elections in my career.

FOREMAN: Thanks very much, Mark and Bill for joining us here. Here, they are set to brawl. Here's an example of a politician recognizing what is really important in the race, confronted with an unbreakable deadline, Hillary Clinton raced through her stump speech Thursday night in North Carolina. She finished in record time. Just before her audience disappeared to watch UNC's basketball team tip-off in the sweet 16 tournament. Now that is timing. And speaking of keeping an audience, that is item one on our weekly political side show.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FOREMAN (voice-over): The hottest game this campaign season is an online strip tease, and it's all about politics, really? It is sexypolitics.com and for every question you get right about say Barack Obama's position on education, the actor inside of the computer takes something off. Don't worry though, because just like politicians, they promise a lot more than they deliver.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I was going to go to class before I got high.

FOREMAN: Put this in your pipe and smoke it. Congressman Barney Frank wants to decriminalize small amounts of marijuana. The long time liberal politico told HBO's Bill Maher, he will sponsor a bill, but why now?

REP. BARNEY FRANK: Because I have finally got to the point where I think they can get away with it.

FOREMAN: Yes, that's what Eliot Spitzer said.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We are family.

FOREMAN: And like Hillary Clinton reminded everyone this week.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, we don't have a choice when it comes to our relatives.

FOREMAN: Genealogists say that Barack Obama is related to Dick Cheney and President Bush. Imagine that family reunion? It gets worse. Obama is a distant cousin to Brad Pitt and Hillary Clinton to Angelina Jolie. Does that mean we will have a White House version of Brangelina? Now that is a real nightmare.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: For all of the talk about how the candidates are battling for the White House, real battles with real bullets are raging across Iraq this week, and when General David Petraeus makes his report to Congress next month, that situation in Iraq could turn this campaign upside down again. Iraq has been out of the news spotlight lately.

In Monday's "New York Times," Brookings scholar Michael O'Hanlon was quoted as saying that the number of journalists calling him for stories on Iraq has fallen off to zero. So, we gave Michael a call and invited him to tell us why voters continue to care about Iraq. And we called in CNN's Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr to keep him honest.

Michael, let me ask you this first off, when General Petraeus shows up next month, all the campaigns say they want to listen to the general, is he going to say what they want to hear?

MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSITUTION: Hi, Tom. Well, I think they we don't know what he's going to say because of the developments that you just alluded to that are ongoing in Iraq right now. This is a fundamentally different kind of situation than we've had in a long time and the outcome could be net very good or net very bad. There are some people trying to prejudge. President Bush for example said this shows that the Iraqi government can be decisive, because they're the ones who chose when to do to this operation and they are leading it.

Well, sure, give them an A for effort, but we don't know yet how well they're going pull it off. And also, their goals might also be partly to advance their own agenda vis-a-vis other Shia groups. I think their goals and motives are generally good, but you got to perform, and if this leads to a bloodbath, it will not be any accomplishment. On the other side of things however, there were those who say that Iraq is up in flames and it's all a big travesty, forget that this had to be done at some point. Basra was in the throws of mafia and militia corruption and violence for too long. And at some point, Iraq's top oil city was going to have to be brought back under government control. It's just too early to know how the battles are going to play out.

FOREMAN: So Barbara, what Michael is talking about there is this notion that the Iraqi military has gone in and said we have to get this under control, and the Shia militias have not responded well to that or their supporters haven't. So, we have a flare up of that violence again. What does the Pentagon think of this right now? Do they say, uh-huh, Iraq is teetering again or do they say, no we've made some substantial progress for months and months and this just a speed bump?

BARBARA STARR, CNN, PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, as what Michael point out, what's going to be important here is what General Petraeus is going to say. Because what we're going to see in the next two weeks is the Pentagon and politics coming together. I'm the Pentagon correspondent, I don't cover politics but guess what, I am covering politics because of all of this. The violence is going to underscore what General Petraeus is going to tell Congress on April 8th or 9th. No rush

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Because what we're going to see in the next two weeks is the Pentagon and politics coming together. I'm the Pentagon correspondent. I don't cover politics. Guess what? I'm covering politics because of all of this.

The violence is going to underscore what General Petraeus is going to tell Congress on April 8th or 9th, no rush for more troop withdrawals. And that, when he says that to the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who's on those committees? Senator McCain and Senator Clinton on Armed Services, Senator Obama on Foreign Relations.

The military doesn't do politics. Dave Petraeus doesn't do politics, but guess what? When those hearings open, it's all going to be about politics. The question, the thing we will be watching, how much of those three senators verbally beat on General Petraeus when he says he's not in a rush for more troop withdrawals.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Michael, it seems like this could play either way. The Democrats could look at this and say, look, you have continuing problems. We've said the progress wasn't fast enough. This is evidence why you must move toward a withdrawal.

On the other hand, the Republicans could say, oh, this is evidence why you need to stay because it's not stabilized yet, and it seems the military could wind up caught in the middle.

MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Yes, I think you're right, Tom. I don't think we know how this will play out largely because there are 10 more days of fighting. They're going to happen potentially before Petraeus and Crocker testify. And if those 10 days produce positive results, then I think it will be easier for those who support the surge to say, see, it's working but you got to give it time.

If, however, we wind up with a bloodbath and Muqtada al-Sadr calls off the cease-fire and the Shia militias start getting involved in the violence in a way they haven't been in a large scale recently, then you could have the critics of the war saying, you see, the progress was a losery. It's not really enough to base a policy on. We got to cut our losses and get out. The next 10 days, Tom, are going to matter a lot because the fighting continues, as you well know.

FOREMAN: John McCain has said basically that they have to stay put. I want to take a quick listen to what both of the Democratic contenders have said about the need to get out and when they want to do it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The most important part of my plan is the first step, to bring our troops home.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will set a new goal on day one. I will end this war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOREMAN: Barbara, it seems like the real problem with the facts here is that they don't really support either side entirely. There is good reason to say the American public is tired of the war, even though they've come back to about neutral on, and in terms of half, they wanted to stop it.

There is good reason to believe that a lot of Americans say we don't want this to go on forever. We don't want to have an open-ended commitment. And yet, a good many others who are saying but you can't just yank out and go. Are any candidates going to hear what they want to hear in the Petraeus report, or will they all hear just what they want to hear?

STARR: I think it's fair to say they're going to hear what they want to hear. There's going to be a lot of optics when those TV cameras turn on and General Petraeus sits down at the witness table. The question that may be emerging is all of this, backing everybody into a political corner they can't get out of, including the top commanders, because right now, General Petraeus, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, all say no mandated timetables for withdrawal. We have to stay until the job is done.

That is not what the Democrats want. What do these commanders do if a Democrat wins, and a Democrat sticks to that campaign promise? What the Pentagon may be hoping behind the scenes is if a Democrat wins, they'll do what they all do when they win. They'll wiggle out of their campaign promises a little bit, and reality will take over. And nothing will fundamentally change for the troops at least for a while.

FOREMAN: Well, let's find the answer in the future. Barbara, thank you very much. And Michael, thanks for joining us as well.

When we come back, inside the vast media conspiracy. Yes, it's true. But first, news you can trust as delivered by our favorite viral videos in THIS WEEK IN POLITICS.

First, the real story of Hillary Clinton's trip to Bosnia.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Top generals agree there's no place more dangerous and snipery than Bosnia right now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOREMAN: "Obama Girl" is back and so is our collection of dancing politicians.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, OBAMA GIRL)

MUSIC: 'Cause I've got a crush on Obama.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOREMAN: And finally, an Irish pop singer who really should have stuck to "Danny Boy."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MUSIC: It is for rain. It is for the rain.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) FOREMAN: Let's play "Beat the Press." Which party was guaranteed to win the White House because of the war? The media said the Democrats.

Which Democratic candidate was on the ropes after Iowa? The media said Hillary Clinton.

Which Republican hopeful had no money, no staff and no chance? The media said John McCain.

If this election were really a game show, all of us who cover it would have been reduced to playing the home version long ago. So many predictions about this race have been so wrong, you have to wonder if they are the work of a vast media conspiracy, trying to push a political agenda or just perhaps a measure of how little we know.

With some trepidation, I'll throw that question to Matthew Felling, NBR contributor and formerly the editor of "Public Eye" on CBS.com. Matthew, why have we been wrong so many times?

MATTHEW FELLING, MEDIA ANALYST: Well, we are so wrong because the media insists on getting ahead of the story. They insist on being the all-seeing, all-knowing wise men where they say, OK, this is the way it's going to be, everybody. And I think, this week, what we had was the story of -- you remember that teacher that you hated in high school, the one who always said, check your math?

FOREMAN: Yes.

FELLING: We actually had -- journalists hate doing math. But this week, we finally had journalists saying, wait, let's take a look at the numbers. Let's carry the one less (ph). Let's remember the remainder.

And they found out that the math involved with the delegate count for Hillary versus Obama is almost completely slanted in Barack Obama's favor, because even if she were to win all the states, she still can't catch up and make the difference on it.

FOREMAN: And that flew in the face of the story that said, oh, let's talk about it as if it's still sort of an equal tight race here. It is tight, but it's not that tight.

FELLING: No, it's not. We used to have the narrative of, you know, she's coming to get him. It's the tortoise and the hare argument, where she's going to catch up to him gradually, slowly. But then, the guys breaking down the numbers realize that it's more of the equivalent of asking Shaquille O'Neal, who shoots 50 percent from the free-throw line, go ahead and make 10 percent right now, Shaq. I mean, sure, is it do-able?

FOREMAN: I'd do it.

FELLING: It's possible, but it's a long shot.

FOREMAN: I have a theory as to why this happens. I have been in newsrooms all my life, and I think what happens is that it's not an agenda. I don't think it's the people want to elect this person or that person, but a narrative starts going forward, and everybody starts buying into it and it takes a degree of courage and a degree of skill to stand up in the media and say, I don't think that's right, especially when so many people will say, no, no, no, you're wrong. You don't know.

FELLING: Yes, there is a group think (ph) mentality definitely when it comes to the press and they like to all assume one position and just move forward to that. But at the same time, there's also the argument that the media loves a really close race. So Barack Obama was way ahead a while ago and then Hillary comes back in Texas. Hillary comes back and starts to make it a close race and the media jumps on to that. And then a couple of bold reporters like you said, have to step forward or step back actually, look at the numbers and say, this isn't as close as we think it is.

FOREMAN: Do you think that it has been complicated by the fact that this race really has been filled with surprises this time, things that political analysts who aren't even journalists, people who just analyze politics have said, boy, I never saw this coming?

FELLING: No, it hasn't even been about number crunching. It's been something that was just theory in the political science's realm when they used to think to themselves, what the heck are we doing with superdelegates? What's the whole point of that in a representative democracy?

And the superdelegates are now the big debate. Are we going to have them? Are they going to swing one way or the other? And it has charged up the debate to such an extent, but we don't know what necessarily is going to happen.

FOREMAN: So what is the solution to all of this?

FELLING: The solution is cover the facts as they develop and also frame it in a way that is representative of what's really happening out there, instead of just saying, well, here's what the Hillary Clinton people have us thinking so we're just going to go forward with that for this week. Or let's watch Barack Obama on vacation for a while in a bathing suit.

FOREMAN: OK.

FELLING: Just cover the facts.

FOREMAN: OK. So wrap it up with a quick prediction from you. Do you think we're going to do it or we'll keep predicting?

FELLING: Oh, you'll keep predicting. That's my prediction for you. You'll keep predicting on, and I think that after Pennsylvania, we're going to need more predictions after that.

FOREMAN: And I predict you'll be back here to talk about it then. Thanks for your time, Matthew.

Straight ahead, for all of our talk a while ago about the Republican strategy, there is another secret that could give John McCain a different read on the competition. What could that be? You'll have to wait just a few moments for the answer, but of course, our "Late Night Laughs" wait for no one.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAY LENO, HOST, "THE TONIGHT SHOW WITH JAY LENO": As you know, Hillary Clinton coming under fire, for claiming she was under fire while in Bosnia. Yes, yes. Luckily, she was wearing her Kevlar pantsuit at the time.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Sinbad went to this Bosnia trip with Sheryl Crow and Hillary Clinton. It's kind of like -- sounds like a movie of the week in Lifetime or something. Can a stand-up comedian, a woman rocker, and a tough drill sergeant field the war-torn Balkans?

LENO: Who would have guessed that Hillary have more war stories than John McCain? Ever think you'd see that?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: This election has been filled with more twists and turns than a home permanent. It's a wonder that political operatives on both sides aren't just tearing their hair out. But the simple truth is, there is a practical political reason that they don't. And our Ed Henry checked it out by going straight to the top.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The bald truth, presidential wannabes with thinning hairlines didn't have a whisper of a chance in this campaign. A balding candidate has not won the White House in nearly 60 years. Dwight Eisenhower in 1952.

DR. WILLIAM RASSMAN, NEW HAIR INSTITUTE: Some people believe that you can't trust bald people. They are a little bit less honest, a little bit underhanded and sneaky. They're like Dr. Evil.

HENRY: Dr. William Rassman, a hair transplant surgeon, runs the Balding blog.

RASSMAN: We want our -- all our men to look like Brad Pitt or George Clooney, not like Yul Brynner.

HENRY: I decided to consult Bill Schneider, part of the best political team on television, and an expert on -- well, trends, hairism.

BILL SCHNEIDER, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: It's the last, great unexplored prejudice in American life. We've looked at ageism, sexism, racism, but nobody has done a comprehensive study of the pervasive hair prejudice in America.

HENRY: But Ali Velshi thinks a new day is dawning for the follicly challenged.

ALI VELSHI, CNN SENIOR BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: The 21st century is the century of the bald man. The baldness myth is like the beauty myth, you know, where there is a sense what you had, what a woman had to look like in order to fit into society. Well, that's been the baldness myth. Now, it's about owning who you are.

HENRY: Many bald guys have made it big. Michael Jordan, Mike Rosovsky Balmer (ph), Democrat James Carville, Republican Dick Cheney, one of the most powerful vice presidents ever. And now, John McCain, who is at least balding, has a chance to break the curse and get the big job.

SCHNEIDER: I think John McCain has to make a very simple argument. His message has got to be grass doesn't grow on a busy street.

HENRY: And in a busy world of multitasking, less hair could better prepare McCain for a crisis.

VELSHI: And I don't have to worry about messing with this whole sort of thing. You remember that 3:00 a.m. phone call commercial that Hillary Clinton was running. Well, you know what? 3:00 a.m., they call me, I'd be on TV at 3:02.

HENRY (on camera): And that -- no bald-face live. Ed Henry, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FOREMA: Well, the national bird is a bald eagle. Straight ahead, "Fast Track" hot tips. On "Next Week's Political News," you don't want to miss it straight from the horse's mouth.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Who is going to vote for Barack Obama?

Endorsed by horses everywhere. Isn't that right? Face shot. He doesn't want to talk about it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOREMAN: You may have thought of Pennsylvania as politically washed up, too far down in the primary calendar to have any real say about deciding the nomination. But Pennsylvanians are gutsy and they're not down for the count yet. And to cover a top state, you need a tough team led by a man who is ready to go the distance.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MUSIC: Theme of the movie "Rocky."

I can fly now, flying high now, going to fly, fly, fly.

(END VIDEO CLIP) FOREMAN: Wow, Bill, this is the biggest introduction you've ever had. You look outright triumphant there in Pennsylvania right now. It's good to have you join us. And Bill --

BILL SCHNEIDER, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: You know, I could have been a contender.

FOREMAN: You could have been and you will be now as we jump on the "Fast Track" with CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider, and the CNN Election Express.

We've been looking at Pennsylvania very sharply. If Hillary Clinton has such a lock on the state, why is Barack Obama kicking off a bus tour there?

SCHNEIDER: Because if Hillary Clinton were to lose Pennsylvania, it will be all over for her. If he holds her margin down to a narrow lead, single digits, it won't be such an impressive victory. But if she wins in a blowout, that's a problem for Obama, because it looks like she has regained momentum.

FOREMAN: The Democrats have been sucking up all the oxygen in the election coverage room lately, but John McCain has his own plan to get his personal story out there. What is it?

SCHNEIDER: His personal story is a story of personal heroism, and frankly, it's the best thing he's got. It maybe the only thing he's got. He's not going to run on party or ideology, it's George Bush's record. He's not going to run on the issues -- the war, the economy, those aren't going to pay off. The best thing he's got is his own very moving personal story, particularly his wartime experiences.

FOREMAN: Speaking of paying off, does Senator McCain have the money he needs to take on the Democrats now?

SCHNEIDER: Not right now. He only raised $11 million in February. Hillary Clinton raised $34 million, Barack Obama $55 million. Why is he behind? Well, they are in a competitive race. He doesn't have to compete with anybody anymore in the primaries. A lot of conservatives are not throwing money at him. They don't entirely like him, and they are not sure he can win. But if the polls start showing that McCain can win, the money is going to come in.

FOREMAN: We are marking the 40th anniversary of the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. Did Obama's speech about race and his former pastor's controversial comments affect how voters see him?

SCHNEIDER: It's a big surprise. Several polls have come out and they've shown that he didn't suffer any serious damage. There was a little decline in his favorability rating, but no serious damage after the controversy over Reverend Wright.

The bigger surprise is this. Hillary Clinton's negatives have been rising. Apparently, a lot of voters hold her responsible for the increasingly negative tone of this campaign.

FOREMAN: Many thanks, Bill Schneider.

Up next, all of the Democrats say they don't want a slugfest at their national convention. Nonsense. Both parties have had plenty of wide- open convention brawls and they seem to love them. We'll run down some of the best and the worst straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOREMAN: We have spent most of the show talking about how the Democrats are desperately trying to avoid a vicious floor fight at their upcoming convention which is too bad, because that would make some great television, let me tell you. And compared to the stayed, dare I say boring conventions of recent years, political conventions in the past have been far more interesting, especially our top five.

In the 1888 Republican Convention, for example, tempers flared as the abolitionist Frederick Douglass became the first African-American placed in nomination. It's true. He received one vote. It took until 1972 for the first African-American woman to take a shot at the presidency, Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm. You may remember her campaign.

Southern Democrats stormed out of the 1948 Democratic Convention in protest of a civil rights plank. They nominated Strom Thurmond as a Dixiecrat candidate. The last convention where there was any real drama was in 1976 when Gerald Ford beat back a contentious challenge by Ronald Reagan.

And finally, who could forget all of the fun the Democrats had in 1968 as anti-war protesters fought police on the streets of Chicago? Well, the Democrats certainly remember, and they want to make sure that it doesn't happen again.

That's it for THIS WEEK IN POLITICS. I'm Tom Foreman. Thanks for watching. Straight ahead, "LOU DOBBS THIS WEEK."

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