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Pennsylvania Breakdown in Voting; Analysis of Philadelphia Democratic Debate; Can Obama Outspend Clinton?; Sestak and Fattah Discuss Candidates

Aired April 19, 2008 - 23:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


RICK SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR: It makes you wonder Rob, diesel used to be a byproduct of regular gas and now it's costing more than regular gas. I'm talking to truckers as I go around the country talking to different voters. They are so frustrated. What they're saying is it's costing me $1,000 to fill up my rig, and mostly with the diesel.
Welcome back, everybody. That has nothing to do with the politics of the day. We're here in Philadelphia. I'm Rick Sanchez. Now, you know why we're here in Pennsylvania? Because Pennsylvania is about to make a very important decision. It matters a lot what the folks here in Pennsylvania say is big news tonight by the way.

Within the last 24 hours, this thing has tightened up. Remember, a big win here for either candidate is really like -- it's a deal closer. We're now about 60 hours away from the polls opening. Let me tell you something, people in the city are pumped. They're juiced. Let's start with what we call the Pennsylvania poll of polls. It's a compilation of polls from just this week. Now, here's what we do. We take all these different polls and we average them out and here's what we get. Right now it shows Hillary Clinton at 48, Barack Obama at 43 and what is that unsure, 9, that's a five-point difference. Five- point difference between the two at this point.

Senators Clinton and Obama have been crisscrossing the state of Pennsylvania in the hours that have been leading up to this all- important Tuesday. Both have jam packed itineraries and equally jam- packed travel plays as well. Obama's travel plans - we start it early in Philadelphia. We were with him as he had rallies there, speeches and events every couple of hours until his voice started to get hoarse, wrapping up in Harrisburg.

Mrs. Clinton also busy, busy, busy, from West Chester to York, and then to McKeesport. Professor, did I get that right? McKeesport, there you go.

Why the big deal about Pennsylvania? John King breaks it down as well as anybody. He looks at the state regionally and what each candidate is going to have to do to somehow pull out of a victory here.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): One of the things that makes Pennsylvania so fascinating, not only in this Democratic primary, but as we look for lessons heading forward to the November battleground, not only in Pennsylvania, but across the country is the diversity of this large state.

You start here in Philadelphia. It is an eastern city. A large African-American population, much more like New York than say Pittsburgh to the west. Philadelphia is the critical city in Pennsylvania because of the population and because of the Democratic turnout inside the city. Pittsburgh out here in the west, once the capital of steel, the gateway to the Midwest, Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh much more a mid-Western city, as Philadelphia is an eastern city.

Still a critical battleground for the Democrats here, an area where they must run up big numbers in the general election. Then you get into the central part of the state which is fascinating. This area here from Lancaster all the way out here is what locals call the "T." They come up through the central part of the state, they go across to the New York board are. This is the culturally conservative agricultural area, rural area, a much more Republican, almost like a southern vote in its voting patterns. We can show you what we mean by that by going back to 2000. You see the results in 2000. Al Gore is blue. He wins big in the blue collar corridors in the east and the west. And the heartland, the middle of the state, overwhelmingly for George W. Bush. Not enough for Bush to carry the state. He lost it both in 2000 here and again 2004.

But you see where the culturally conservative voters are, in the middle of the state. You see where the blue collar Democratic turnout is in the east of the state. This is worth remembering as we head forward to November. If John McCain is going to make this a red state come November, has to do not only what George W. Bush did out here in the middle part, but he has to do better than George W. Bush over here in the east, especially in the suburban collar just around Philadelphia.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ: John King, boy, I'll tell you, he can really break down the maps and bring in the numbers. Wednesday night's debate, the last before the Pennsylvania primary has been criticized by a lot of folks not so much for what the candidates said, but rather for what the moderators did. Ask too many questions, they say about misstatements or about scuffles instead of real issues.

Here's one exchange where George Stephanopoulos asked Senator Obama about his relationship with a former 1960s activist accused of committing bombings for a radical group -- by the way, Obama at the time was a child. It was the Weather Underground. All right. We don't have that tape. Let's do this now.

Let's bring into the panel because something else has happen heard. Since then, it's been packed up by Tom Shales of "The Washington Post." He called the way ABC handled that debate despicable. Obama complained the next day and said, we're 45 minutes into this before we talked about one single issue that mattered to the American people. Are they right? E. STEVEN COLLINS, RADIO HOST, PHILLY SPEAKS: They're absolutely right. Come on, it's 50 minutes of rehashed stuff. We've heard this over and over and over again. I think most people in this state where the primary's a week away, Rick, are concerned about bread and butter issues. I thought it was such a waste of time. And it seemed as though there was another agenda.

SANCHEZ: That's interesting --

DOM GIORDANO, RADIO HOST, WPHT: I don't think it was a waste of time at all. My listeners didn't think so. And I think putting this guy's errors on the map and questions for the front-runner might be good for Senator Obama down the line rather than in the general election being hit with this type of stuff, Rick and have to deal with.

SANCHEZ: But is it fair to bring up candidate's associations with people who aren't either their advisers or part of their campaigns? Who among us hasn't shaken hands or gotten to know -- by the way, the guy lives in his neighborhood and is a University of Chicago professor.

GIORDANO: Well the difference is though he served on the board with him. I wouldn't serve on the board that was a guy who is a radical, a weatherman, a guy blowing up -- I just wouldn't do it.

COLLINS: I've served on a lot of boards. There are 47 members on one board I'm on. I don't even know what everybody's doing --

GIORDANO: I think you -- if you put your good name on that -- I'm certainly not going to have my name on there.

COLLINS: My good name is for the good of the board and what it's doing, not because some individual 40 years ago was a Weather Underground guy.

GIORDANO: The guy was a radical and blew up -- and said on 9/11 that the only thing is he wished he had bombed more. That's what rankled people.

DONALD KETTL, UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA: The real problem is, there was a sense that these issues -- especially the ones that people here in Philadelphia and the larger area around Pennsylvania just didn't have a chance to resonate with. It was about 75 minutes into the debate that the first mention of any real issue affecting this state really got in there --

SANCHEZ: All right so let's go -- let's cut to the chase, gentlemen. Do you believe that George Stephanopoulos who used to be the spokesperson for Bill Clinton went in there with a determination to rankle Obama for the sake of his old friend's wife?

(CROSSTALK)

COLLINS: After all, aren't they trying to make the nation watch?

SANCHEZ: So we have two no's and Dom, you say?

GIORDANO: Rick if you were there, you're not going to risk everything you built up. George Stephanopoulos is not beholden to the Clintons. I don't think he even likes Mrs. Clinton. You read what he said about her, how brutal she was. I don't see any love lost there.

SANCHEZ: Was he unwise in the way he handled it, even having people bring this up? Because I'm not bringing it up as a first guy here, this is what people have been saying --

(CROSSTALK)

KETTL: Why does he have to -- he worked for the Clintons for a while. He's been working for ABC four times longer than he worked for the Clintons.

SANCHEZ: And he does a really good job, by the way.

KETTL: He's a good journalist on top of that. What he had was something that he thought was going to be a scoop that nobody had heard of before.

COLLINS: He got it from talk radio.

SANCHEZ: He got it from Sean Hannity.

KETTL: Thought he was going to be able to get something juicy -- it blew up on him.

COLLINS: Aren't we forgetting they spent an hour practically on that, on that whole issue, all this stuff was that was talked about over and over again?

GIORDANO: What were the ratings on this debate? The ratings on this debate were tremendous.

(CROSSTALK)

SANCHEZ: It's like people who say they don't want to look at car accidents and yet as soon as they see one on the road --

GIORDANO: Or the weather --

SANCHEZ: -- they all stop to look at it on the way.

KETTL: And I wonder what happened to the ratings as soon as they started talked about the issues. And I bet people reached for the dial and changing. But we ended up with this incredible crazy discussion that should have gotten more time about middle class tax payers and how people making less than $250,000 a year - I mean where did that come from?

SANCHEZ: Maybe if you're an anchor man at ABC.

KETTL: Could be. SANCHEZ: Guys, I'll be back for you in just a little bit. Taking the focus off of Pennsylvania for just a few minutes. We're going to continue with our ongoing conversation with Black America as we continue this. CNN's Don Lemon -- he spoke in fact with BET Founder Bob Johnson, the guy who's had a thing or two to say about the campaign as well. He's joining us tonight in Atlanta. Don, what did you learn?

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, my gosh. A very interesting conversation. Don't go anywhere because I want to ask you something, Rick. Stay with me. Do you remember this comment, this is from Geraldine Ferraro, a couple of weeks back. "If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman, he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept." Do you remember the hoopla and all the uproar around that, Rick?

SANCHEZ: Certainly do. A lot of people thought it was like saying the only reason this guy's able to do something is because he is black --

LEMON: He is black.

SANCHEZ: Which many people found extremely insulting.

LEMON: I'll tell you what Bob Johnson said because he made a comment about Barack Obama a couple months back that garnered some controversy. Now what Ms. Ferraro said, he's saying that Geraldine Ferraro is right. I questioned him about that tonight. I was at a black tie dinner with him. Here's what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BOB JOHNSON, BET FOUNDER: What Geraldine was saying was a political -- what Geraldine was trying to say. She was trying to say, in the Democratic Party, there are constituents. Black constituents, there are women constituents, gay constituents, Hispanic constituents and so on.

If you are a black candidate and you can start out with 90 percent of that core constituency, you have a better chance than the others who are splitting that. She was talking about the numerical fact of the demographics of the core Democratic Party. Not that he wouldn't get it if -- not that he didn't deserve it.

LEMON: Why didn't it come out that way? Why were people offended by it?

JOHNSON: Because Geraldine Ferraro is white. This is a hair- trigger kind of election.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: All right, so here's what Bob Johnson -- we're at a black tie dinner tonight. That's why I was wearing this. He was there, he was a keynote speaker. I was emceeing. I brought a camera, Rick, and I said, why are you supporting -- he said, I unequivocally support Hillary Clinton, I do not support Barack Obama. I said, why do you support Hillary Clinton?

He says Hillary Clinton has a better chance against the Republicans in November. And frankly he does not believe that Barack Obama can win when it comes to the Republicans in November. And he said Hillary Clinton has won more key states that are important to the Democratic Party than Barack Obama and Barack Obama if you look at what he's won -- again, according to Bob Johnson, he's won more red states which won't win anything to Democrats in the general election.

Many other interesting things that he said that we're going to play throughout the week here on CNN. But Rick, it was a very interesting evening and a very interesting conversation with Bob Johnson. He is never at a loss for words.

SANCHEZ: I got to tell you something. Why should we be challenging African-Americans who want to vote for Hillary Clinton and not Barack Obama? It does seem ludicrous to me. I mean, the mayor of Philadelphia is backing Hillary Clinton. I mean, they're loyal to somebody who they're beholden to because they had a good presidency while they were in the White House and they were essential good for African-Americans, right?

LEMON: Well Rick, let me tell you this. He agrees with that. He would agree with what you say. But he says, as he said in the sound bite, this has become a hair trigger of an election. He thinks African-Americans are so emotional when it comes to this election because it's the first time they have a viable candidate in the race, a dog in the hunt, so to speak, that they can't hear or listen to anything objectively, so they are connected. They have this pride connected to Barack Obama. So if someone of African-American descent supports Hillary Clinton or says something critical about Barack Obama, then all of a sudden they are the worst villain that you can face. He said we have to stop doing that --

SANCHEZ: That's an interesting, but really quickly --

LEMON: We have to stop doing that to our African-American people on television, the people on radio. He mentioned Tavis Smiley. He said, we've got to stop doing that. You have your opinions, I have my opinions, so let's move on.

SANCHEZ: Right and you don't have to be monolithic whether you're Hispanic or Jewish or black or anything else in this country.

LEMON: Right, he says it's a disservice if we do that.

SANCHEZ: It's an interesting perspective and it's interesting what's happening, that dichotomy that's happening in the African- American community, as this -- as this campaign continues. Great stuff, Don, we appreciate it.

LEMON: Hey, thanks, as always, Rick. Nice job there in Philly.

SANCHEZ: All right. How about campaign ads? How divisive can they get? We've got some. We're going to be sharing them with you. Stay tuned. We're coming right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The country really needs to change dramatically. The country is almost a disgraced situation from the point of view of ethics, foreign policy, economy. And this is an important election because there's a potential to really change that around. And make this -- make -- turn it around.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: That's a Philadelphian talking there. Let me tell you, we're here in Philly, beautiful city. That's the skyline you see back there behind me. These are the steps that Rocky climbed when he came up to the very top. These people are tough. These people, they know what they want and they're going to know how to get and it looks like Tuesday they're going to go out in two individual groups and see if they can get it. And it's looking like this thing is as tight as it possibly can get. It's amazing. The numbers are now down, it's like the division of five about percentage wise anyway, at least in the polls that we have done here at CNN.

And it's causing some tensions between the democratic presidential campaigns tonight as well. Up to Pennsylvania, the ads have been, you know, not necessarily too bitter, to use an overused word, but suddenly things have changed here in Pennsylvania. Take a look at some of the campaigns.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hillary Clinton's attacking, but what's she not telling you about her health care plan? It forces everyone to buy insurance, even if you can't afford it. And you pay a penalty if you don't. Barack Obama believes it's not that people don't want healthcare, it's that they can't afford it. That's why the Obama plan reduces costs more than Hillary's, saving $2,500 for the typical family. For health care we can afford, vote for change we can believe in.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: Yes, so here's where you see candidates using their opponent's names in their ads successively. Barack Obama may approve the message, but his opponent by the way doesn't. Take a look at this one.

It says, "My opponent has put up an ad attacking my health care plan, which is kind of curious because my plan covers everybody and his leaves out 15 million people, leaves them out in the cold. Instead of attacking the problem, he chose to attack my solution." Now pundits say that Obama's strategy is to drive Clinton to the poor house, to force her out of the race. He's got the money to be able to do it. So far, he spent $400,000 a day, on pace to exceed $10 million in ad spending. Mrs. Clinton, just $3.3 million. Turning now to the panel.

Dom Giordano is the voice of Philly, he's on radio station WPHT. Donald Kettl is an Ivy League professor and political scientists and Penn. And E. Steven Collins hosts "Philly Speaks." He's been animated about all of this as well. Is this about money in this case? Is Obama able to put her in the poor house?

COLLINS: Barack Obama's been able to get a whole lot of people to give a little bit of money every single week. That says to me engagement. That many people raising record numbers of dollars speaks volumes.

SANCHEZ: Dom, you have to give it to him. He really has put together some kind of Internet, grassroots campaign that we haven't seen in years, maybe ever in this country.

GIORDANO: One measurement I know at my radio station, he's spending to be on with us. We never had the Democrats spend to be on with us and he's spending big money --

COLLINS: That's because Republicans are coming over. That's the problem.

GIORDANO: I'll tell you one thing, I'm glad we haven't seen the "3:00 a.m." ad in Pennsylvania. I don't want to see some guy going up to the coal mines and the phone's ringing --

(CROSSTALK)

KETTL: But part of it, they really are trying to spend her in to oblivion. And what this erases about is even if Hillary wins by a little bit, can she continue to raise enough money to be able to keep this going?

SANCHEZ: That's a good question. Let's support that Hillary Clinton doesn't win Pennsylvania by a big number, but wins. Let's say.

KETTL: Right, by 5 percent, say.

SANCHEZ: Let's say nine to 10. Is she in trouble?

KETTL: She's in trouble period because first of all, this was supposed to be the place where she was going to show everybody she could win big and win in the big states. She was up by 16 percent six weeks ago. Now it's down to four or five person. She's slipping clearly in the wrong direction. That's not good for momentum. She's having a hard time raising money as it is --

SANCHEZ: -- But is it done? If it's not over 10 percent, is it done? KETTL: She's not quite done, but she's close because she's going to have a hard time raising money.

SANCHEZ: Let's look at another ad. It's always fun to look at these things and see what the candidates are doing. It says a lot about them and the people around them. Here's another one. Let's put it up.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Barack Obama said that people in small towns cling to guns or religion as a way to explain their frustrations.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I was very insulted by Barack Obama.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It just shows how out of touch Barack Obama is.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm not clinging to my faith out of frustration and bitterness. I find that my faith is very uplifting.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: This is the one where she criticizes him for the line about clinging to religion and guns.

KETTL: Right.

SANCHEZ: But then he goes on to say, I could have done the same thing to you, Senator Clinton, after your Bosnia thing, and I didn't. Is that a good point he makes?

COLLINS: He's making -- I think he's making a great point, Rick, because he could have. And throughout that debate we saw Tuesday night there were a lot of digs. He didn't make any of them. He has been saying all along that his foundation --

SANCHEZ: Does it say something about his church or does it say something about when you're on top, you don't need to do that?

COLLINS: Why do it? First of all, I think he was making the case throughout that we have rehashed it enough already. She told a lie.

SANCHEZ: Let's be fair. When it's the ninth inning or let's say it's the eighth inning and you're down by three runs, you have to swing for the fence.

GIORDANO: I think it's his brand too more than anything. This is what he's branded. Whether it's really him or not this is what he's run on.

SANCHEZ: It is?

GIORDANO: Maybe it is, it's his political brand.

SANCHEZ: But should we criticize her for swinging for the fences?

KETTL: She's got to swing for the fence. That's all she's got at this point. What kind of alternatives does she have?

COLLINS: I don't see any problem with her swinging for the fences. But the problem I have is the two interviewers and the course that they took. But Barack Obama throughout his entire campaign has said, I'm not going to go there. And he hasn't. He really hasn't. That's who he is.

SANCHEZ: You think he's been above --

COLLINS: He's talking about a hope, a vision, and a better tomorrow and he represents sweeping change. He just does.

KETTL: Part of this is also connecting with the voters which is really what a lot of this stuff is about. His big argument is he's connecting because he's not going negative. Hillary's trying to make the case that she's going to do a much better job because Obama's not, because of the bitter comment. It's about connecting a lot of ways here in Pennsylvania and that's what they're struggling over.

SANCHEZ: Has her husband, former president Bill Clinton, been a liability for her as many people seem to be saying?

KETTL: Especially in Pennsylvania, it's a mixed message. Back down the parkway in the -- in the 2004 campaign, he drew 100,000 people in a rally for John Kerry, 100,000 people just down the street.

SANCHEZ: Right.

KETTL: People still have a lot of affection for Bill Clinton. But there's a little bit of a sense -- this goes to the heart of one of Hillary's problems, is a sense that maybe she's a little bit too 1990s. It's Obama's great ability to look to the future that is --

SANCHEZ: That's an interesting perspective, that the Clintons have become passe? The Democrats?

COLLINS: Remember, when Bill Clinton ran a few years ago, my good friend who always reminds me, he talks about -- President Clinton talks about two candidates running. One talking about hope, another one talking about despair. Always go for the one who's talking about hope. Because that's what President Clinton said while he was here.

GIORDANO: Pennsylvania lives the familiar. Bill Clinton has been to Philadelphia more than anything. There's still a reservoir of good will. So some of the things that he said, where he's gotten off message like with the Bosnia thing, bringing up again. Here in Pennsylvania, I don't think they care, the Hillary voters, they're not swayed by that.

SANCHEZ: But when I read that the Clintons are old school, as has been written in some wonderful magazines like "Vanity Fair" and "Rolling Stone," some other magazines that do some pretty good political coverage, how does it happen? How do you get old school so fast in this country? They were just --

KETTL: The reason is --

SANCHEZ: Down to ten seconds.

KETTL: This election is critical. It's about the future and about what's on the other side of the bridge that Clintons been talking about for a long time. And Obama's done a better job of reaching across and trying to describe to people what's there and Hillary's had trouble doing that.

SANCHEZ: All right, back to more on this in a little bit. Two congressmen, one from the Clinton side, one from the Obama side, both of them going toe to toe on this. Fabulous conversation, that's next. Also, the Texas polygamy case. New details, we'll have them for you. Stay with us, we're live in Philly.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWS BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: For me, I would vote regardless because it's my duty to vote all the time. But for people, I listen to my neighbors and friends, they feel as if this time it counts. They were depressed and sad before for these last eight years. They thought maybe they weren't being heard. And for some reason, they feel that this time they will be heard.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: Joining us now is one from each side, Pennsylvania Democratic Congressman Chaka Fattah. He's an Obama supporter. And Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, he is a Clinton supporter.

Congressman Joe, I got to start with you, you start to get worried because that big number we were seeing before for Clinton seems to be diminishing somewhat.

REP. JOE SESTAK (D), PENNSYLVANIA: Well, I don't think that's to be unexpected. I mean Senator Obama and I have great respect for him, is using really some traditional means. A lot of money is being pounded into Philadelphia, the third largest most expensive media market.

But Philadelphia and in particularly the rest of Pennsylvania and my district, Delaware County, we're retail politics. Ed Rendell, go to every hoagie shop at noon time, a bar every night and shake hands. And that's responsive.

SANCHEZ: Is that what it's about? Is it money, Is he just beating her because he's got more dough?

REP. CHAKA FATTAH (D), PENNSYLVANIA: Look, I think that the Obama campaign and the reason why it has the support it has is that it's focused on the real issues, on the economy, how to get our young people out of Iraq. This state lost more soldiers than almost any other state in the country, 200 young people who will never have a chance to run up and down these steps, 2,400 seriously injured. So no, it's not money --

SANCHEZ: But you're sitting next to a soldier, an honorable soldier.

FATTAH: Absolutely.

SANCHEZ: I mean, this gentlemen is the real deal, he's been there.

FATTAH: Not discounting that, what I'm telling you is Senator Obama's support, which is across the state -- look at the crowds today, look at the largest crowd in history --

SANCHEZ: But let's be pointed in this conversation, you're sitting next to a man who was over there, fought for this country, came back and was elected in part because of it. What makes you think that Barack Obama would be less capable of handling this conflict in Iraq as a soldier, as a fighting man, than your candidate, Hillary Clinton?

SESTAK: I don't think Barack Obama is less capable. I just know because I served with her in the White House. I testified before her at the Senate Armed Services Committee, that I know she will be more capable on day one. This is a person who actually has had a front row seat and was involved in many decisions at the White House. I was involved in many significant ones --

SANCHEZ: Was she really?

SESTAK: Oh, yes, without a question. Think about it --

SESTAK: But was she the first lady or the vice president?

SESTAK: Well, think about this. Northern Ireland, Ian Paisley Protestant, Gerry Adams, Catholic. She watched them, only when they shook hands and had political accommodations did militias stand down.

Take that to Iraq. She has said no, military security does not beget political accommodation. She said we must force them with political accommodation, then we'll have security. It's why she said to the Pentagon, come across the street and brief us on how long it's going to take us. As soon as that was over, she said one or two brigade combat teams a month because that's the remaining catalyst we have to force the Iraqis.

SANCHEZ: You serve your candidate well, well spoken. Congressman, your turn.

FATTAH: Here's the deal. Don't listen to the two of us. We have a candidate we support. Listen to what objective people are saying. Every newspaper in the state, "The Philadelphia Inquirer," "The Philadelphia Daily News," the "Pittsburgh Post-Gazette," the "Bucks County Times," all of them endorse Barack Obama. Now they don't have a candidate in the race. These are people who look --

SANCHEZ: Are you saying the media knows what it's talking about?

FATTAH: No, what I'm telling you is this, is that the reason why the polls are closing and it's getting tighter --

SANCHEZ: Right.

FATTAH: Now, it's clearly a home court advantage for Hillary Clinton. But the reason why Barack Obama is doing so well is because he was right on the issues. He was right when he said vote no on the war and Senator Clinton was wrong when she voted for the war.

SANCHEZ: Do you think it may just be a personality thing where Barack Obama has a je ne sais quoi that perhaps Hillary Clinton doesn't have but her husband did have?

FATTAH: I don't think it's personality at all.

SANCHEZ: You don't think Barack Obama has an appealing personality that draws crowds, more so than her?

FATTAH: I think when he said going to war in Iraq was going to cost us lives and hundreds of billions of dollars and we should vote no, and Senator Clinton listened to George Bush and voted yes, that these are the two points that separate these two candidates.

SANCHEZ: How about that? Go ahead, congressman.

SESTAK: I'm not sure what that French or Italian word you said meant. But let me tell you this I certainly know --

FATTAH: He's just trying to tell you he's an elitist.

SANCHEZ: I knew we'd get back to that somehow.

SESTAK: But I certainly know this -- Pennsylvania, as Chata alluded to, we're pretty tough, pretty gritty people. Look, there are Slovaks who came over and worked in steel mills. He also alluded to the fact we have a national guard that per capita has more people in Iraq than anywhere else. We still believe in the ideals. But why she fits Pennsylvania like a glove, she keeps on going. She's tough. She's determined. She's tenacious.

SANCHEZ: She is that.

SESTAK: That's why I said at the beginning, retail politics, no. You're going to find there's a significant amount who haven't made up their mind. When you said five to six, no, it's going to be a bit higher. Because she knows, hands down.

SANCHEZ: It has to be a bit higher. She's the gal from Scranton.

SESTAK: Here's my last thing.

SANCHEZ: We're down to about 20 seconds.

SESTAK: Franklin Roosevelt, when he died, he was going through a train and this man was crying. A reporter came up and said, you must have known him. He said, no, but he knew me. She knows us. She knows us well because she keeps fighting and going on. That's who we are in Pennsylvania and that's why she'll win.

SANCHEZ: Finish.

FATTAH: All I can say is that they say in my church, weep the man door for a night, but enjoy cometh in the morning. So don't worry about the crying. Senator Obama's talking about changing in our nation, transforming our country.

SESTAK: I got to read better scriptures.

FATTAH: -- and that's why -- look at the train trip today, you look at those crowds all across the state. It's passion --

SESTAK: At the end of the day, it's about results.

SANCHEZ: We're out of time, but you guys got to take this on the road. I guarantee you you'll make more than you do in Congress.

SESTAK: Good to be here.

SANCHEZ: Thanks, fellas, I appreciate it. All right, here's what we're going to do after this conversation. Trends are important in politics. There's no question about it. Here's a trend we've been following. Why do younger voters break for Obama and what do older voters, those who tend to break for Hillary, have to say about that? Great talk. Stay with us. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I feel really torn between the two Democratic candidates. The negative campaigning really, really bothers me too.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: We want to welcome you back. This is our special coverage of Tuesday's crucial presidential primary in Pennsylvania where, you know it could end up being a make or break primary for really -- well, probably more for Hillary Clinton, but to a certain extent Barack Obama as well if Hillary Clinton, if Senator Clinton does very well, big numbers in Pennsylvania, suddenly this is a different race, folks.

The younger you are, the more apt you are, though, to vote for Barack Obama. The more seasoned you are, as us seasoned folks like to be called, the more likely you are to lean towards Hillary Clinton. Why? What's going on in this country with this? And what does one group have to say to another? You've got to pay attention to this Randi Kaye piece.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARNIE FREEDMAN, CLINTON SUPPORTER: Well, I'm 62. She's going to be 62.

SHELLY WINSTON, CLINTON SUPPORTER: 61.

FREEDMAN: Sixty-one, excuse me.

RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): They argue over how old the other is, but agree on this, both want Hillary Clinton in the White House.

WINSTON: I think you need to know the ins and outs of Washington. I think she knows it.

FREEDMAN: Obama, to me, doesn't have in my opinion, the full experience, and with experience comes wisdom.

KAYE: Arnie Freedman and his companion of 12 years, Shelly Winston, represent the typical older Pennsylvania voter. They're concerned about how Barack Obama may handle the economy, social security, and their retirement savings.

(on camera): He was in diapers when you were in Vietnam. Does that bother you?

FREEDMAN: Absolutely.

KAYE (voice-over): Pennsylvania's population is the second oldest in the country behind Florida. And that's good for Hillary Clinton.

KETTL: The state is Hillary Clinton's to lose. She has a lead in the polls. She has a demographic that lines up behind her.

KAYE: Political expert Don Kettl says Hillary Clinton's eight years as first lady means something to older folks. He says they should look deeper.

KETTL: Having circled the world 15,000 times doesn't necessarily make somebody a better pilot. It's having experience to how to operate the controls.

KAYE: Bill Clinton operated the controls for two terms. Back then, the economy was stable. It was a good time to save for retirement. Hillary Clinton may benefit from that just by association.

WINSTON: I just don't want to wake up one day and everything is gone because somebody didn't do the right thing economically.

KAYE (on camera): Anything Obama can say or do to win over the older voter? KETTL: Assure older voters that the stability in the economy they're looking for and the stability in their savings is going to be there. Medicare is going to be funded. Social security is going to be there.

KAYE (voice-over): Shelly and Arnie want specifics.

WINSTON: I know that Barack Obama want to make change and unity and people coming to the. But I don't know what he wants to do.

KAYE (on camera): Here in Pennsylvania, all Obama's talk of change may actually hurt him. Sure, the younger voters like it, but Kettl says change can be disturbing to older folks. They like what they have. They know what they want. And to them, change can sound uncertain, maybe even a bit scary.

(voice-over): History may be another hurdle for Obama.

KETTL: Older Americans have also lived through a lot of periods of tremendous racial tension in their lives.

KAYE: Whichever Democrat wins Pennsylvania, he or she can expect to run against Republican John McCain, who would be the oldest person ever to become president. Raising the question, who will older voters lean toward then? Randi Kaye, CNN, Ardmore, Pennsylvania.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ: It's the argument against those young whippersnappers and what they know, guns, booze and God knows what else is in Jeanne Moos's look at the Clinton/Obama spectacle tonight, only as Jeanne Moos can bring it. Also a threat of all-out war now from this man, Muqtada al-Sadr. We'll be back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWS BREAK)

SANCHEZ: We couldn't possibly do a political special without inviting Jeanne Moos to put together a piece for us. This one's good about guns and booze and bitterness. No, I'm talking about country music here or songs, I'm talking about the campaign cross fire between the Democratic presidential contenders. Jeanne Moos gets caught up.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONENT (voice-over): Shots and shooting.

OBAMA: She's packing a six shooter.

MOOS: It's the latest tune the candidates are dancing to on the road to the White House. Remember weeks ago when Hillary said to Barack?

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Shame on you, Barack Obama. MOOS: Well now --

OBAMA: She knows better, shame on her.

MOOS: Will the bigger elitist please stand up? Is it the candidate who declared income of $109 million since she and Bill left the White House? Or the one who said that small town Americans clinging to guns or religion because they're bitter? Those comments --

CLINTON: They seemed kind of elitist and out of touch.

OBAMA: Who do you think sought of touch?

MOOS: Obama suggests it's Hillary who's been clinging to guns lately.

OBAMA: She's talking like she's Annie Oakley.

MOOS: Remember Annie Oakley? As in "Annie Get Your Gun."

OBAMA: Hillary Clinton is out there like she's out in a duck bind every Sunday.

MOOS: Talking about how her dad --

CLINTON: Taught me how to shoot when I was a little girl.

OBAMA: She knows better.

CLINTON: So I shot a banded duck.

MOOS: Obama knocked her for playing Annie Oakley and he knocked her for trying to knock back a few like the average Joe.

OBAMA: I'll even come around with TV crews in tow and throw back a shot and a beer.

MOOS: Not that Senator Obama would ever stoop to such a thing. In a restaurant in Indiana, the locals played got cha with Hillary.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I got you, you're drifting a draft, baby.

MOOS: When the bartender asked Hillary if she wanted a shot with her beer, the peer pressure was on.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yeah, baby.

MOOS: That would be a Crown Royal whiskey Hillary's about to clink and drink. Photos on the shot heard round the world resulted in a call for captions on Michelle Malkin's conservative blog. Captions like "Hillary Clinton encounters more shots than she did in Bosnia."

As for Obama's alleged elitism, what critics consider to be Senator Obama's nose in the air attitude has already been immortalized on merchandise. They took a pro-Obama image that says "hope" and turned it into one that says "snob." In the mean time, Obama has developed a dismissive laugh he's been using when he talks about Hillary.

Having a good time yet, candidates? Funky good time. Jeanne Moos, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ: It's good stuff to see the candidates try to be real. Gentlemen, we're down to about two minutes. Call her the gal from Scranton, call her Annie Oakley, call her what you will. Is this going to be the last stand for Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania? Professor, start us off.

KETTL: This is supposed to be the make or break election. It may turn out to be neither. The problem is Obama hasn't quite been able to close the deal. Hillary's hanging on by fingernails. It feels like a razor-thin margin for Clinton, not enough quite to knock her out, but not enough either to be able to get enough money to keep her going.

SANCHEZ: So you think it will continue onto Indiana and North Carolina?

KETTL: It will continue, but limping along.

SANCHEZ: Steve?

COLLINS: I think it's an exciting time for people who traditionally are not involved who are now involved who have registered who care. Students, people 18 to 34, 18 to 24 that previously were not involved. I hope they stretch it out as long as they can to get all those people to stay involved in the process including a lot of Republicans who are turned off to this White House and what the administration has said and done.

SANCHEZ: Dom?

GIORDANO: Well, I thank them for bringing us here to Pennsylvania, you guys here to Pennsylvania. I hope the next time we have the Republicans at the end of this. And would hate to be the one to walk in, Rick, and tell Hillary Clinton it's over. I don't know who that messenger is going to be.

SANCHEZ: It's not going to be, I guarantee you that. I don't even think it'll be her husband. Gentlemen, you've been great. Dom Giordano, WPHT; Donald Kettl, University of Pennsylvania, ivy league; E. Steven Collins is a radio host as well. You guys have really been fantastic, thank you. Thank you one and all.

By the way, the conversation about what these people are saying all over the country, we call it the league of first time voters and we're going to debut it tomorrow when we come back, from Philly. We'll be at the University of Pennsylvania with a studio audience of really smart students in the background cheering for their candidates.

Meanwhile, so long from Philly, we'll see you tomorrow right here at 10.

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