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Issue Number One
Food Crisis is Becoming a Growing Problem; Fight For P.A. One Day Away; How to Cope With Rising Gas Prices
Aired April 21, 2008 - 12:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ALI VELSHI, CNN ANCHOR: The fight for Pennsylvania -- how Obama and Clinton plan to win what could be a decisive primary.
Gas hits $3.50 a gallon, but some states and hotels are going out of their way to help you save money.
And no joke, 2008 is the International Year of the Potato.
Just one more day to go until the big Pennsylvania primary.
ISSUE #1 is on the road with the CNN Election Express. ISSUE #1 starts right now.
Welcome to ISSUE #1 and to Philadelphia. I'm Ali Velshi. Gerri Willis will be along in just a moment from New York.
We are here at the CNN Election Express, as we are less than 24 hours from the start of the Pennsylvania primary. The candidates are both out in full force, working to get each and every vote. They're focusing on what most voters consider issue #1, the economy.
CNN's Jim Acosta has been spending some time on the campaign trail.
We have numbers out, Jim, talking about how close this race is, but there's still a spread. There's still -- it's too early to call, Jim.
JIM ACOSTA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Ali. The latest CNN Poll of Polls shows Hillary Clinton with a seven percentage point lead at this point. That's a slight uptick from what we saw late in the week. She had a five percentage lead in the CNN Poll of Polls late Friday, heading into the weekend. And that is good news for Hillary Clinton.
This is a state in which every vote will count. And earlier this morning, she was making her closing arguments in Scranton, Pennsylvania, emphasizing her blue collar biography.
She says it time and again, her grandfather worked the mills in that state, in that part of the state, and that is a message that resonates with distressed blue collar workers in Pennsylvania. She also suggested to the crowd that a vote for Barack Obama is a roll of the dice.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I've been very specific in this campaign, telling you what I will do and how I will do it, and asking you to hold me accountable for producing results for you. Because I don't want you to take a leap of faith or have any guesswork. We've had enough of that. We unfortunately ended up electing a president in 2000 and we didn't have a clue about what he was going to do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ACOSTA: And as expected, both Democrats are airing scores of negative TV commercials, while at the same time complaining that the other's hitting below the belt. Barack Obama is suggesting that Hillary Clinton is engaging in slash-and-burn politics.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When I hear Senator Clinton's campaign say they're going to throw the kitchen sink strategy at us, and they try to manufacture or exploit fake controversies instead of talking about what is important for the American people, how we're going to deal with the energy problems, how we're going to deal with the mortgage lending crisis, I'm thinking, well, you learned the wrong lessons from those Republicans who were going after you in the same way, using the same tactics all those years.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ACOSTA: And the expectations game is well under way, Ali. The Barack Obama supporters out there are saying, unless Hillary Clinton wins by a wide margin, a double-digit margin, she's finished. As for Hillary Clinton, they are saying at this point, a win is a win.
VELSHI: All right. How do these numbers -- what are they likely do? What are we thinking about how they're going to break, 43 for Obama, 50 for Clinton, and that seven undecided, that's a smaller than the last time we checked in. What do we think is going to happen?
ACOSTA: Right. Well, those undecided voters are the key, and you're going to hear candidates over the last -- over the next 24 hours, and we've heard them over the last 24 hours, reaching out to those undecided voters.
If history is any guide, Hillary Clinton does well for these undecided voters, who at the last second may decide to go with a candidate who they perceive as having more experience, a name that they recognize more. And Hillary Clinton has done well with these voters, not just in Ohio, which was the last big victory for Hillary Clinton, but in previous contests.
Barack Obama is trying to blunt that, and that is why we're seeing him go more negative in these last 48 hours than we've seen in the past.
VELSHI: All right. And Jim, you'll be on top of this. Jim Acosta, thank you.
ACOSTA: You bet.
GERRI WILLIS, CNN ANCHOR: As the battle for ballots heats up in Pennsylvania, one group of votes the Democratic candidates are sweet on, older voters. But what will it take to win them over?
CNN's Randi Kaye has the story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ARNIE FREEDMAN, CLINTON SUPPORTER: Well, I'm 62. She's going to be 62.
SHELLY WINSTON, CLINTON SUPPORTER: Sixty-one.
FREEDMAN: Sixty-one, excuse me.
RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): They argue over how old the other is, but agree on this, both want Hillary Clinton in the White House.
WINSTON: I think you need to know the ins and outs of Washington. I think she knows it.
FREEDMAN: Obama, to me, doesn't have in my opinion, the full experience, and with experience comes wisdom.
KAYE: Arnie Freedman and his companion of 12 years, Shelly Winston, represent the typical older Pennsylvania voter. They're concerned about how Barack Obama may handle the economy, social security, and their retirement savings.
(on-camera): He was in diapers when you were in Vietnam. Does that bother you?
FREEDMAN: Absolutely.
KAYE (voice-over): Pennsylvania's population is the second oldest in the country behind Florida. And that's good for Hillary Clinton.
KETTL: The state is Hillary Clinton's to lose. She has a lead in the polls. She has a demographic that lines up behind her.
KAYE: Political expert Don Kettl says Hillary Clinton's eight years as first lady means something to older folks. He says they should look deeper.
DON KETTL, UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA: Having circled the world 15,000 times doesn't necessarily make somebody a better pilot. It's having experience to how to operate the controls.
KAYE: Bill Clinton operated the controls for two terms. Back then, the economy was stable. It was a good time to save for retirement. Hillary Clinton may benefit from that just by association.
SHELLY WINSTON, VOTING FOR CLINTON: I just don't want to wake up one day and everything is gone because somebody didn't do the right thing economically.
KAYE (on-camera): Anything Obama can say or do to win over the older voter?
KETTL: Assure older voters that the stability in the economy they're looking for and the stability in their savings is going to be there. Medicare is going to be funded. Social security is going to be there.
KAYE (voice-over): Shelly and Arnie want specifics.
WINSTON: I know that Barack Obama want to make change and unity and people coming to the. But I don't know what he wants to do.
KAYE (on-camera): Here in Pennsylvania, all Obama's talk of change may actually hurt him. Sure, the younger voters like it, but Kettl says change can be disturbing to older folks. They like what they have. They know what they want. And to them, change can sound uncertain, maybe even a bit scary.
(voice-over): History may be another hurdle for Obama.
KETTL: Older Americans have also lived through a lot of periods of tremendous racial tension in their lives.
KAYE: Whichever Democrat wins Pennsylvania, he or she can expect to run against Republican John McCain, who would be the oldest person ever to become president. Raising the question, who will older voters lean toward then?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WILLIS: Well, that's a great question. Randi, I've got to say, that couple, they're so cute. I love them.
KAYE: They are really cute.
WILLIS: But how are these older voters -- which way are they going? What do the polls say?
KAYE: Right now among voters 45 and older in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has the lead 54-37 percent. The thing about Obama is, is that there's a lot for the older voter to digest. As our expert put it, there's a lot of food on the table for the older voter when it comes to Barack Obama.
What I heard from older voters is that they want specifics, just like you heard in that story. They want to know that he understands they're living on a fixed income. They want to know that he's going to protect their Social Security and stop the wild swings in the stock market. They want specifics from him. WILLIS: Specifics, but also, Obama has an interesting problem, because he's not just battling Hillary Clinton. In some ways, he's also battling Bill Clinton.
KAYE: Absolutely. Bill Clinton is still king in some parts of Pennsylvania. When he was in the White House, he had stabilized Social Security, the economy was looking good, medical care was looking good, the stock market was strong. And Pennsylvanians haven't forgotten that.
If you listen to Governor Ed Rendell, who's a big supporter of Hillary Clinton, he says, which part of the '90s didn't you like when there was a Clinton in the White House, the peace or the prosperity?
WILLIS: Great quote.
KAYE: So -- exactly. So Obama is dealing with that legacy as well.
WILLIS: All right. So tonight on "ANDERSON COOPER 360," you're going to be talking about women. Women are always important parts of the election.
KAYE: Absolutely. It used to be the soccer moms, then it was the married moms. Now it is the unmarried, young women voters, who are really key.
One in four voters in the state of Pennsylvania is an unmarried woman, and they are the ultimate economy voters because their average income is about $30,000. Twenty percent of them are single moms. So all of these economic issues are really important to them. So we'll see which way the candidates will sway them.
WILLIS: We'll look forward to that.
Thank you, Randi.
It's your turn to weigh in on today's "Quick Vote" question, and that means it's time to check in with Poppy Harlow from money.com.
Hi there, Poppy.
POPPY HARLOW, CNNMONEY.COM: Hi, Gerri.
Well, another record for gasoline. AAA says we've hit $3.50 a gallon on average. So, just driving to the grocery store, that's going to cost you a lot more. And when you get there, staple items like a loaf of bread, a gallon of milk, that will cost you more too.
We want to know what you're most worried about. Here's our "Quick Vote" question today: I am most concerned about the cost of gas, food, housing or health care?
Log on to CNNMoney.com to vote. We'll be back later in the show with your answers -- Gerri.
WILLIS: Poppy, I hope we can vote on all of those actually.
HARLOW: Yes.
WILLIS: Thank you for that.
HARLOW: Sure.
VELSHI: Well, we have so much more ahead for you, both from the CNN Election Express here in Philadelphia, and ISSUE #1 headquarters in New York. What you, the voter, thinks about health care, and why short-term solutions may not be the answer to fixing the economy.
Plus, as gas prices hit record highs, how some hotels and cities are helping you save money when traveling.
You're watching ISSUE #1 on CNN, and we are coming right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WILLIS: Now as part of their economic plans, the presidential candidates have proposed changes, some of them major, to the health care system. But this show is all about you. So we want to know how important of an issue you think health care is this election year.
My guest is Paul Keckley. He is the executive director of the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions and co-author of an important national survey which looked at voters' attitude on health care in the election.
Good to see you, Paul.
PAUL KECKLEY, DELOITTE CENTER FOR HEALTH SOLUTIONS: Thank you, Gerri. How are you?
WILLIS: All right. Well, let's talk about this survey.
Really interesting, some surprising facts. A lot of people out there, particularly in Pennsylvania, registering their concern about health care.
KECKLEY: Yes. It's a top three issue. And if the economy can be defined in health care terms, it's a top two issue, along with Iraq.
WILLIS: Wow.
KECKLEY: Most concerned about cost, and also concerned about access.
WILLIS: Access is always important.
KECKLEY: Right.
WILLIS: Of course, you know, we also know that people are worried about future health care costs. Now, the proportion here really surprising. People know and understand that there's going to be a lot to pay for.
KECKLEY: Yes. About one out of 10 feels they can get a handle on what it's going to cost them in the future. So that means nine out of 10, whether they have insurance or not, don't feel they really are comfortable with what it might cost them.
WILLIS: That's surprising numbers. OK.
So I thought what was interesting is you sort of describe Pennsylvania voters as conservative in their approach to health care, because they think of it in old-fashioned ways -- employer-sponsored health care.
KECKLEY: Yes, it goes all the way back -- if you'll recall when Harris Wolford took over for John Heinz and then ran in '94 on a universal care platform, and lost, this is a conservative state in terms of health care. They want health care for all, but they don't like mandates. They like their hospitals, they like their doctors, they like the fact that care is perceived to be good, but they really don't want too many more mandates and too much more government oversight.
WILLIS: So what does that mean in terms of the candidates who are going to appeal to Pennsylvanians?
KECKLEY: Well, obviously if you propose a mandate, as Senator Clinton has, you may face a challenge. The idea of universal care is one that resonates with everybody, but more government is one that a conservative population would probably push back.
WILLIS: All right. Let's talk about some of the younger folks. They are critically interested in health care. I was surprised to see Gen Xers so interested in this topic.
KECKLEY: Well, two reasons. One, they have to spend money on cars and clothes and building and starting families, so health care is a bit scary. They prefer their employer to take the heat.
And two, it's complicated. So, until you've actually engaged the system, you had a problem where you went to doctors and hospitals and had a lot of bills, you probably don't worry too much about it.
WILLIS: All right. We're looking at some pictures here that describe, for example, how Hillary Clinton stacks up on health care. Let's walk through these.
Now, you said she has mandates. She requires that people be participating in the system, correct?
KECKLEY: Yes. And the word "mandate" scares people. People react to health care with their gut. It's something that we don't really study, we just know it because we've experienced it. So the idea of a mandate may push back for many people.
WILLIS: All right. Let's talk about Obama for just a second. No mandates here. KECKLEY: No mandates, but the idea that everyone should have insurance and everyone should have an opportunity to have it and be in the system, so it's a bit less threatening, as it appears. Access is the focus. Interesting, Gerri, neither talking about cost, both talking about access at this point.
WILLIS: All right. Interesting material.
Paul Keckley, thank you for that.
VELSHI: Well, for more on the economy and how it factors into this primary, I'm joined now by Neil Oxman, the co-founder of The Campaign Group, and Democratic political consultant Ken Smukler.
Gentleman, thank you for being here.
You know, Philadelphia, like much of Pennsylvania, shows you sort of how different the state can be. You know, look at that skyline behind me and you're reminded of the fact that finance and Wall Street plays a big part. There's a very wealthy sort of suburban community here in Philadelphia. And there's a big blue collar vote in this country -- in this state.
How does this all play out? How does the economy as issue #1 play out in a place like this, Neil?'
NEIL OXMAN, CO-FOUNDER, THE CAMPAIGN GROUP: Well, it plays out to this degree, that I would say overwhelmingly, notwithstanding what socioeconomic status you are, people are concerned about something about money. They're concerned about their own retirement, they're concerned about taking care of their elderly parents, they're concerned about making sure they can pay for health care, they're concerned about saving for their kids' college tuition.
Some people are only one paycheck away from -- you know, from disaster. They're concerned about the fact that it cost $50 or $60 or $70 to put a tank of gas in your car. So, I mean, notwithstanding what, you know, almost every socioeconomic status in the state, there are monetary issues that affect everybody right now.
VELSHI: It's affecting everyone.
Is it playing out well for the Democratic candidates? And how? Who is it playing out better for?
KEN SMUKLER, POLITICAL CONSULTANT: Well, what happens is, candidates use the uncertainty about the economy as a paradigm into which to discuss generally now at the end of the campaign negative aspects about their opponent. So what they do is, they'll talk about big oil and create big oil as the boogie man. Then they try to attack their opponent through the boogie man of big oil.
So how do they do that? Hillary Clinton says -- well, Obama says about Hillary, Hillary takes money from big oil. Hillary says about Obama, hey, wait a second, he takes money from a bunch of big oil executives. So they all use the economy as a paradigm in which to attack the other candidate.
VELSHI: You know, just a few weeks ago down here in Philadelphia, Barack Obama made this big speech about race. We haven't seen that play back into the wedges that they're driving into each other between their campaigns.
OXMAN: I think that you're fairly far away from the whole Reverend Wright issue. Unfortunately for Obama, between that time and now he made the mistake of talking about small-town Pennsylvanians in a pejorative way at a fundraiser in San Francisco, and that dominated his -- that slowed his momentum down here a great deal.
VELSHI: All right. We're looking -- our latest Poll of Polls shows Hillary Clinton at 40, Barack Obama at -- I'm sorry, 50, Barack Obama at 43, with a seven-point undecided group of voters.
Where do you think that breaks? How do you think that turn out tomorrow?
SMUKLER: Well, I think it looks like most of the undecideds happen to be in the more rural, blue collar areas of the city. If the demographics of the exit polls prior to this election prove out, that should be breaking for Hillary Clinton. But make no mistake, Obama tries to change the math in this state. He registers 18-to-35-year- olds into this primary, and he's looking for historic turnout among African-Americans.
VELSHI: And the turnout's going to make a difference.
Ken, Neil, thank you very much. Stay with us. We're going to come back and chat more how this primary is going to go tomorrow.
Coming up next on this special edition of ISSUE #1, gas hit $3.50 a gallon. It doesn't make traveling attractive. But you can save some money if you do your research. We'll tell you about something we're calling incentive-based traveling next.
Stay with us. You're watching ISSUE #1, live from Philadelphia.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WILLIS: With rice and wheat prices rising, all eyes are on one food that has remained stable as far as price is concerned. That's the potato.
CNN's Deb Feyerick is here to tell us about what the United Nations is calling the Year of the Potato.
OK. So, the potato is gaining momentum?
DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think that's really the big question. The reason it's the potato is because after rice, wheat and corn, the potato is the fourth most important food crop in the world. It's cheaper and easier to produce than rice, for example. It needs less land, less water, and that's a big benefit for people in sub-Saharan Africa, or also parts of Asia, where farms are shrinking. And so it's becoming a big problem.
WILLIS: So clearly a food crisis here, but around the globe, right?
FEYERICK: Absolutely. And I think a lot of people just don't understand just how bad this food crisis really is.
You're talking about multiple nations, you're talking about all at the same time. I mean, you look at a place like Haiti, for example, the prime minister there had to step down after protesters were chanting, "We are hungry!"
And if you look at the numbers, one billion people live on $1 a day, 1.5 billion live on $1 to $2 a day. And because of the food inflation, because there's not enough food for all of these people, the World Bank estimates that more than 100 million people are sliding back into poverty, and that means a lot of very, very hungry people. That's why it's a big crisis.
WILLIS: You know, it's a sad story. But I'm wondering about the nutritional value of the potato. I don't think it's high on the list.
FEYERICK: Well, certainly here in America it's been slammed because people are on these low-carb diets. But in fact, it really is very, very nutritious.
It's got a high vitamin C content. In fact, it's about half that of an orange. It's also got more potassium than bananas, 22 amino acids, 26 different carbohydrates and nutrients.
And so, for people who need one small staple, this really is the staple. And that's why you have so many people now looking to growing the potato and eating it in many places.
WILLIS: All right. Well, what is the U.N. hoping to accomplish here. The Year of the Potato, I mean, is it all words or is there really substance behind this?
FEYERICK: It's a lot of words. Don't get me wrong.
When we went on to the Web site, we saw a lot of repeat language. But the goal is a good goal.
The goal is to get other countries thinking about the potato as an alternative. And what that means is that farmers can grow the potato, consumers can begin to eat the potato, and that creates food security. So that means less hunger and certainly less poverty, and that is the aim. Make the potato hot, and maybe it will be the answer when rice and wheat and corn are just too expensive for the average person.
WILLIS: Well, less hunger or less poverty, I hope we can get there.
Deb, thanks for that report. Gas and oil prices both hitting record highs. AAA says the national average for a gallon of regular gas is $3.50. Now, that is about 65 cents higher than a year ago. And oil prices soared to a record high of nearly $118 a barrel.
Spring is in full swing, summer is around the corner, and high gas prices make traveling, well, a lot less appealing. But some cities and hotels are going out of their way to provide a little incentive for you to get on the road.
CNN's Jen Westhoven is checking it out for us.
Hi there, Jennifer.
JENNIFER WESTHOVEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi. Thanks, Gerri.
I mean, sure, I think a lot of people right now, they're trying to pay mortgages. How am I going to take that vacation? People are thinking about taking them in their backyards with the sprinkler again. Well, hotels want to get you back out there, so there are a lot of gas-related offers that are cropping up.
On the West Coast, if maybe you were thinking about Disneyland or Sea World or some of the beaches in southern California, the Costa Mesa Visitors Bureau has $25 rebates for gas, or air fares. They have $25 vouchers for dinner every night you stay.
And then on the East Coast, New Hampshire's got offers too. They've got a whole Web page of gas-saving offers at all different inns that are out there.
In addition to New Hampshire, some other states are getting in on the act. New York, for example, has similar discounts. Some places have one night free when you book two nights.
And it's really something that we're seeing more and more across the country. Choice Hotels might bring back a popular program late this year, a $50 gas card after some stays. Hotels.com has $30 gas rebates for two-day stays.
These are all big names, Gerri, but even some of the smaller, independent spots are trying it too. Bedandbreakfast.com has many B&Bs. They have a discount called "Tanks a Lot."
WILLIS: That's good stuff.
WESTHOVEN: Yes. I think we're going to see a lot more of these, too, throughout the summer. Because, you know, what they know, that you're worried about gas, they're going to put gas in their discounts to try and make you feel like you can afford it.
You can get more information on these deals with our friends at money.com. And I'm going to be keeping an eye on travel deals all summer long, how high gas prices are changing your plans. Are you taking a shorter trip? Maybe you're sticking to the beaches and mountains near you? Are you not going out of the country this year, because you don't want to get hit by the weak dollar?
WILLIS: Well, you know, Jen, I think we should both cover the travel beat, and maybe we can get an Election Express bus after the election, hit the road, go to different cities. What do you think?
WESTHOVEN: I think so. And I think we can do it all for, like, 150 bucks a night.
WILLIS: Jen, thanks a bunch.
VELSHI: Tanks a lot, Gerri and Jen. And I actually like that idea of taking the Election Express on the road. It's always a fun vacation.
Coming up next, live from the CNN Election Express in Philadelphia, why the presidential candidates might want to proposing short-term solutions. We're going to find out why a long-term plan might be the only way that some people think you can fix the economy.
Plus, we're taking answers -- or we're giving answers to your e- mail questions. So send them to us. The address is issue1@cnn.com.
ISSUE #1, live from Philadelphia and New York, rolls on after your latest headlines.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone. I'm Don Lemon, live here at the CNN World Headquarters in Atlanta.
More ISSUE #1 in just a moment, but first we want to check your headlines for you.
It's almost decision time for voters in Pennsylvania. On the eve of the state's crucial primary, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hard at work on the campaign trail hoping to sway undecided voters. And both continue to throw negative punches at each other. In the meantime, John McCain, who has a Republican nomination in his pocket, he's in Selma, Alabama, today praising the courage of the civil rights leaders.
Who are the parents? Officials in Texas hope to answer that question today when they begin taking DNA samples from more than 400 children. They were seized from a polygamous sect compound. The children have been in state custody since the raid on April 3. Adults from the compound will also be tested starting tomorrow. Once the DNA tests are done, state officials plan to start relocating those children.
A search and rescue mission is happening right now off the coast of the Bahamas. The Coast Guard is looking for survivors of a boat that apparently capsized. So far they've pulled 20 bodies from the water. Rescuers have found three survivors. Most of the people on the boat were migrants from Haiti.
Eighteen quakes in three days. The ground won't stop moving in Illinois. It started with a 5.2 magnitude quake that rattled the Midwest on Friday. Since then, at least 17 aftershocks have been reported. The latest happened just after midnight. The epicenter is in southern Illinois in the same area as that original quake. Today's aftershock measured 4.5. That is one of the strongest aftershocks yet.
More news at the top of the hour, including breaking news concerning the Palestinians and Hamas, the militant group there. We'll bring that to you at 1:00 p.m. Eastern right here in the "CNN NEWSROOM."
In the meantime, I'm Don Lemon.
More ISSUE #1 with Ali Velshi and Gerri Willis.
VELSHI: Welcome back to ISSUE #1. We are live with the CNN Election Express here in the beautiful city of Philadelphia.
It's less than a day until the Democratic showdown in Pennsylvania. Both Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton hope that issue number one, the economy, that you have told us is the biggest issue in this campaign, will win over voters, or at least their solutions to them. But is it the right strategy? CNN's senior political correspondent, Candy Crowley, is here with me to talk about it.
Candy, you have traveled in every city and probably many of the small towns in this country and I know you know economists. But you have observed something that many economists have observed, that all this talk about the gas prices and inflation may not be the thing to solve this economy in the long term.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly not in these small towns because you're talking about what's really been an intractable problem and a structural problem. The jobs have gone from these small towns. In many of these places, they won't come back.
So what happens? The young people go away and the town loses its lifeblood. We saw this in Iowa. We saw it in Ohio. We see it here in Pennsylvania, that these small towns then lose their tax base because the young people are leaving and the education is not funded as well as it was before.
So you've got all of these people who have been thrown out of jobs who look at their kids, realize they don't have a future here -- the kids don't and so they leave. So it's a much broader problem.
VELSHI: Not the kind that can be solved with a quick answer.
CROWLEY: Right.
VELSHI: One of the things that we've seen, for instance, is only six states in the United States last year added manufacturing jobs. They're going -- they've gone away. Youngstown, Ohio, a perfect example. There are many places like this, particularly in the western part of the state, they're industrial jobs and no one's got a plan to retrain these workers.
CROWLEY: They have plans but they're not broad enough to really hit at all of these small towns who are seeing their way of life literally dying, their towns dying, because there are a lot of them that populate the countryside.
VELSHI: And that's a good thing to remember when we're around in places like Philadelphia. This is an East Coast city. It has problems that New York has, in many cases. It's, in many cases, wealthy, but a lot of the state is not.
CROWLEY: Absolutely. Absolutely. And they see, it's not that they're not having mortgage problems or that they're not having gasoline problems, it's just that the longer term problems are what has really depressed these towns. And, honestly, by the time we get to January, what's the mortgage problem going to be? What's the gas problem going to be? They might not fit what the answers that we're hearing on the campaign stump (ph).
VELSHI: Jobs is a big issue. Candy, thank you so much.
And the last recession in 2001, small though it was by comparison, three million jobs were lost in the United States. So jobs remain a major, major issue in this economy.
Coming up next, more from the CNN Election Express. We'll be talking about what it will take for each candidate to bring it home in Pennsylvania. This is ISSUE #1. It's a show about the economy, your house, your job, your savings, your debt. So send us an e-mail. The address, issue1@cnn.com. We're taking a break.
ISSUE #1 is coming right back on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: Welcome back to ISSUE #1, live from Philadelphia.
Well, tomorrow's Pennsylvania primary will mark the end of six weeks of campaigning in what could be the tilt state, so to speak, in the Democratic race. I want to bring Neil Oxman, the co-founder of The Campaign Group, and Democratic political consultant Ken Smukler back into our conversation.
You know, one of the things that's relevant to everybody in this country who doesn't live in Pennsylvania is that pretty much every economic issue in the country takes place in Pennsylvania. This is really not a homogeneous state on any level. So I think everybody else is looking to these candidates because what they say to Pennsylvanians is going to be relevant to them.
What kind of things happen in Pennsylvania that we need to think about?
SMUKLER: Well, take the difference between Pennsylvania and Ohio. And Ohio was a lot about NAFTA. NAFTA would play in Pennsylvania in the southwest. NAFTA is not really a burning issue in the southeastern part of the state. So in different places in Pennsylvania, different economic issues play out.
VELSHI: Neil, so how does a candidate capitalize on that? What is it that they can say to voters here that, by the way, will resonate with voters across the country? I don't even know if there's one answer for Pennsylvanians.
OXMAN: There isn't. I mean, for instance, you've got a gigantic agricultural -- people who make their living from agriculture. They're not all Republicans in this state. They have tremendous problems now with the high cost of energy and gas prices. I mean, so farmers are, you know, taking a hit even though the cost of their products are going up.
There isn't one single message. The message is, it's anti-Bush and it's anti-Republicans and it's change. That's the message. I mean if you -- in the end, 28 weeks from tomorrow, in the general election, the Democrat, whoever the nominee is, is going to try to crystallize the message down to this sense. If you're happy, you can vote for McCain. And if you want to change the way things are going, especially economic, you have to vote Democrat.
VELSHI: How does McCain play in a place like Pennsylvania? They routinely refer to Pennsylvania as a purple state. Unclear as to how it goes. It's got a conservative base. It's got a liberal base. Where does McCain play here?
SMUKLER: Generally, in a general election, you build it from the east to west. The Democratic candidate has to come out of Philadelphia with over 300,000 as a benchmark in order to overcome what the Republicans do in the western part of the state. Most of the Democrats, the Reagan Democrats, are parked into the southwestern part of the state.
If McCain can speak to those Democrats, he has a shot at this state. But it would not matter if Obama or Hillary Clinton roll big numbers up in Philadelphia. They generally cannot overcome a 300,000 plus margin out of this part of the state.
VELSHI: To the point Philadelphia is an interesting, but not necessarily, representative place compared to the whole state.
Gentlemen, thank you very much for joining us. We appreciate that.
Well, one interesting factor in this presidential campaign, first-time voters. And here's a chance to hear firsthand how they really feel about this election.
ISSUE #1 brings you this courtesy of CNN's Rick Sanchez.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RICK SANCHEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice-over): If you're planning to vote for John McCain, raise your hand. Hillary Clinton, raise your hand. Barack Obama. Not a single one of you is interested in voting for Hillary Clinton. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm on the fence about who I'm going to vote for.
SANCHEZ: Most people that you talk to are energized?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There's people that I've met that are totally not into politics whatsoever. And just because of this, they're fired up.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's a reaction (ph) against Iraq. It's a reaction against the economy, education.
SANCHEZ: Change?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
SANCHEZ: Hope?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Exactly. All I know for elections is, well, I'm going to vote for the least of the two evils. And I feel like, especially the Democratic campaign this year, that's not how it is.
SANCHEZ: Why Barack Obama?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He came and sat on our lawn and spoke to 22,000 people. I mean, it was incredible.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think that Barack Obama is inexperienced. I don't feel comfortable with putting a man who's only spent three year in the United States Senate in charge of all of that.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If Barack Obama were to become president and we were to pull out all our troops immediately, we'd leave it in chaos.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But maybe it's our influence there that's causing them to do anything wrong.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If we just leave them with the government, maybe all the problems will go way.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If I make a mistake, I try to fix the problem. I don't try to just walk away and pretend it's going to not be a problem any more.
SANCHEZ: Should we have gone to Iraq in the first place?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.
SANCHEZ: Period.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator, killing thousands of his own people. He used weapons of mass destruction against his own people.
SANCHEZ: John McCain says if we have to be there 100 years, we should be there. Do you agree?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He didn't say that Americans are going to be there for hundreds years fighting and fighting and fighting.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We need to have a presence there until it's done, but I think it's really hard to ask Americans to keep giving lives.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How do the people living there feel. I get the feeling that I would not be too happy were I in their shoes.
SANCHEZ: Do you think John McCain's going to have a tough time with it because he's trying to please Peter to pay Paul.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, he's alienating all of the swing voters that probably would have voted for him.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The religious right may not love John McCain, he might not have been their guy, I don't believe they're going to vote for Hillary or Obama over . . .
SANCHEZ: No, but they'll stay home. They won't vote.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's the scary part.
SANCHEZ: You're having real hesitation about voting for John McCain. Why's that?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's kind of backed away from gays and lesbians.
SANCHEZ: He needs the base of the Republican Party. The base of the Republican Party is not gay.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, if he wants those people, he doesn't have me.
SANCHEZ: Go, Dane. That's good. That's good. Excellent.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VELSHI: All right. Rick Sanchez joins us now.
Rick, young people are always fired up or they've always got a better solution. Why would it be any different this time?
SANCHEZ: And we've heard time and time again that this is the time that the youth vote is going to come out.
VELSHI: Right.
SANCHEZ: You know, you remember Bill Clinton playing the saxophone. And Bill going on MTV and...
VELSHI: That's right. That's right. Always going to be breaking news ground. SANCHEZ: Here's why. The Iraq War and Barack Obama. Those are the reasons that I perceived, as I go to all these different campuses, that there are people who really are juiced perhaps more than they have been before. And this time around you're going to see different types of voters.
Now we should tell you, this initiative that we're doing, this league of first-time voters, is not just about young people in colleges. It's also about people who are newly energized. It's people who haven't been in the system for a while, who have dropped out, but are coming back now for the first time in years, you know.
VELSHI: Right. And we've met some of those people who are they're much older. They're not young people but they're coming out and they're getting out there. We'll have to see if that happens.
SANCHEZ: Women for Hillary Clinton. You know, seasoned, mature women who are saying, this is our time to really make a difference as well. So they come in different shapes and colors and we're going to be talking to all of them over the next couple of months.
VELSHI: Very good, Rick. Thank you very much.
SANCHEZ: My pleasure.
VELSHI: You're a lucky guy. But now look at your hair. I'm wondering -- I'm seeing the advantage of not having hair on this windy day.
SANCHEZ: Let me get some on you there. Hold on.
VELSHI: Listen, like Rick said, this election, get some facts and have some fun. Join the league of first-time voter as CNN.com. Get some accurate, easy to access information about voting. Express yourself and connect with other people. Check out CNN.com/league right now. Become a member and tell other people about it.
WILLIS: Great stuff. Thanks, Ali. We'll check back in with you in a bit.
Up next, it's time to get you some help. The address is issue1@cnn.com. Answer to your questions next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WILLIS: Welcome back to ISSUE #1 and the help desk, where we answer your questions. It's that time of the show where we answer all your e-mail questions.
Let's get right down to it. Ryan Mack is with Optimum Capital Management.
You've seen Mike Santoli. He's from Barron's Online.
And CNN's own Jennifer Westhoven is here as well.
Let's get right to the questions.
No. 1, Carson from Wyoming asks: "I'm looking to refinance and have locked in a 20-year at 5.5 percent. I figured the long-term savings versus the 30 year is about $80,000." That's a whole lot of interest. "The payment is about the same as I pay now but some lenders are telling me to pay a bit more for the 30-year and take more out for investment. I'm 30 years old and have no retirement or savings. Which makes more sense?" -- Ryan.
RYAN MACK, PRESIDENT, OPTIMUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT: Well, first of all, Carson, I'd definitely like to say that congratulations on doing your homework. $80,000 in interest rate is an enormous amount of savings. But I think you're kind of robbing Pete to save Paul if you're going to try to refinance just to pay the amount and save in terms of interest on a monthly payment.
What I would do is, opposed to that, start looking at your budget. How much are you spending on a month to month basis. Do a 30-day diary, really journaling exactly how much you're spending and how much you're earning to see if you can try to squeeze some additional savings that way.
And also, who's asking the questions and why? This predatory lending is very real. These individuals are out here trying to get us to take out additional financing to pay their salaries and their bills and do an additional 10 years worth of lending and that's not necessarily responsible.
WILLIS: I love that answer because people don't think about that. What does my lender stand to gain? In this case, a whole lot.
Lesley from California asks, "my husband and I will be buying a home two months from now. What is the best way to find the right mortgage?"
What do you think, Mike?
MICHAEL SANTOLI, BARRON'S ONLINE: Well, I mean, obviously you want to empower yourself with information, as Ryan was suggesting. There's mortgage calculators out there everywhere.
Now, there's no shortage of services that are going to funnel a lot of potential lenders to you. But I do think it makes a whole lot of sense to kind of know, right at the outset, the parameters of the kind of mortgage you want. See if you already have a banking relationship with somebody. That's not a bad place to start, in my opinion.
WILLIS: You know, can I just say, 30-year fixed rate mortgages right now. It's a great deal. Why wouldn't you just go with that?
SANTOLI: Oh, I agree.
WILLIS: Lock it in.
SANTOLI: In terms of the structure of the mortgage, absolutely. WILLIS: Lock it in.
MACK: And one addition thing. Know your FICO score before going into the lender. What is their prime lending rate cutoff? If you have a 701 FICO score and their prime lending rate is 702, it might be wise to wait a couple of weeks to try to pay a couple of bills off and get that extra points in terms of savings.
WILLIS: More of that thinking. That's great.
OK. Eugene has a question: "I am unemployed and seeking word during this turbulent time in the economy. Sadly, I have been rejected from prospective employees because of my bad credit. Why is that? Why does my credit have to do with my employment?" -- Jennifer.
WESTHOVEN: I think Eugene is not going to like the answer to this question. I mean there are statistics out there that employers more and more are using your credit check because they want to really measure your, they say, your integrity and your responsibility. It's one way that they're checking whether or not you're keeping your financial word.
So I think that it's one of those things that it's hard to hear that, but it's just the view of some employers. They also think it's a sign of your organizational skills. But it's really a means of why you want to work on that credit score. It's an extra reason why you want to try and get that back up.
WILLIS: All right, let's go to Barb in Florida's question: "I'm a single mom with two kids who invested in two rental homes when my husband died in 2000. I refinanced two years ago to make ends meet and am now practically upside down." She owes more than the home is worth. "I need to sell, but can't afford to pay six percent commission to a real estate agent" -- Ryan.
MACK: Well, at the end of the day there's an old saying, don't try to sell a cow for a glass of milk. You know, that 6 percent commission, for the long term, are you trying to save a little bit of amount of money, that real estate agreement may help you find a house, they help you sell your house on the market more responsibly. They at as an intermediary between you and the seller.
A lot of those clauses that go into these contracts and help you save thousands of dollars in terms of contingencies and whatnot. So that six percent might actually be worth it. And do you have the time to sell your house?
WILLIS: Do you want to jump in?
SANTOLI: Well, I was just going to say, I mean, you have to weigh that against the potential price you might get without a realtor. I mean, you don't know if that 6 percent is going to be on top of the value you might derive from using a realtor.
WILLIS: Interesting stuff. Guys, thank you so much, Ryan, Mike, Jennifer, for joining me today. Great answers to some tough questions out there.
Up next, the results of our "Quick Vote" What costs are you most concerned with?
It's not too late to vote. Log on to CNNMoney.com and we'll check back in with Ali on the campaign trail with the CNN Election Express in Philadelphia.
You're watching ISSUE #1.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WILLIS: It's time to get the results of today's "Quick Vote." More than 64,000 of you weighed in for how you voted. Let's check in with Poppy Harlow from CNNMoney.com.
Sixty-four thousand.
HARLOW: I think that's a good indicator of how upset people are over gas prices. Sixty-three percent of you said gas prices are what you are most concerned about. Following that was food, then health care, then housing. But just overwhelming now.
Some economists have said that 350 is really the tipping point at which consumers will dramatically pull back on how much they drive. But what's really tough for people, Gerri, are those people that have to drive for their jobs, taxi drivers here in New York City, commuters across the country. It's tough. They have no choice.
WILLIS: It's tough for a lot of people to make a difference in that.
Thank you so much, Poppy.
HARLOW: Sure.
VELSHI: All right, Gerri, now we are here in Philadelphia today and tomorrow ahead of this big, important Pennsylvania primary. We're in front of the Museum of Art, the Philadelphia Museum of Art. Those are those famous stairs that Rocky ran up.
We're set up here with the CNN Election Express and many, many members of the best political team in television, because we are going to be watching this Pennsylvania primary very carefully. Not just because of the outcome of it, not just because of what it means to the Democratic Party, but what it means to you, whether or not you live in Pennsylvania, because the issues that Pennsylvanians face are the same issues that you face, jobs, the economy, gas prices, inflation, the mortgage crisis, debt. These are all issues that affect everyone and we want to know what the candidates are saying about this.
We are doing this all from this bus, the CNN Election Express. We're able to broadcast this from here to you for the next day and a half. We will be here and we will be bringing these issues to you. So please stay tuned. Tomorrow we'll be back at noon Eastern with a special issue of ISSUE #1, a special edition of ISSUE #1, where we are talking about the economy and you and politics. Stay with us. And thank you for joining us today from Philadelphia.
Let's take it now to the "NEWSROOM" for the rest of your day's news.
